The Syndicate

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

Boomslang wrote:Also, obligatory finger-pointing at a2zebra, sig, and motel room for either not posting in Day 1 or posting nothing of substance. Sig, I see you lurking. What's on your mind?

Golden wrote:

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

Seems a little early MP.

Also up to page six and nobody has mentioned me yet. I'm insulted.

I was just about to mention you. I have to vote before I go to bed, and your absence might get my vote unless you give me some reason not to. I know you are busy, but i want your siggish thoughts.

Scotty wrote:I mistakenly thought that BWT was the only one that hadn't posted, and from a cursory glance it looks like sig and zebra haven't even checked in the thread yet.

And dog has even been around apparently, without posting.

MacDougall wrote:

sig wrote:

Boomslang wrote:Also, obligatory finger-pointing at a2zebra, sig, and motel room for either not posting in Day 1 or posting nothing of substance. Sig, I see you lurking. What's on your mind?

That math test wasn't to hard
Roommate is dumb
Shameless is a good show y'all should watch it
Zebra has been quiet (hello pot meet kettle lets both be black together)
Drunken Motel seemed a little weird
I dislike Mac clearing Motel for being drunk, very pingy?
No vibes from LC either way I'll ISO him later
Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating
I dislike the vote for Wilgy, this is his normal behavior
Epi is being very fluffy, which is normal but less content then usually.
and I remember very little from MP's posts which is odd since I know he is posting alot, I just can't recall them.

So a few minor pings for MP, Mac, and Motel.

Boom and Quin both look okay so far. \

And I'm off to bed, but I'll be on tomorrow with a few more in depth reads (hopefully) and around to cast my vote. I plan to look over LC, MP, and Mac before voting.

Sig is town guys.

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

Snow Dog wrote:I don't like nachos.

Snow Dog wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Lol LC have you not played with me before? I used to make gigantic posts all the time and sometimes still do. If you don't like the fact that I posted many small times instead one gigantic one I don't know what to tell you, it's a lot of content either way and over the years I've had people complain about both and not read my posts. I don't need a lecture on that. How about you talk about some of the content within them instead?

Buddying? That's weaksauce my friend. Show me the mafia motivation behind my posts.

I think I prefer lots of smaller posts. Easier to digest. And I think you have been "buddying", but I am not inclined to vote for you for it.
The usual thing has happened at game start. Those who post most, get the most suspicion. Would a player who normally posts a lot change that depending on his alliance? Some might, I don't think Mp would.

LC's post pinged me a little, this one...

Long Con wrote:*emerges from the birth canal*

Maybe it's time for me to do some role analysis and then get some votes for it for being "overly helpful".

DrWilgy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Let's go to Melee Island, where we can play a more awesome video game called Super Smash Bros. Melee.

Only if you let me wave shine you into upsmash.

Hello everyone. My name is DrWilgy and I am most definitely a smash player.

I have not checked my role nor do I plan to. I will, however, assist townies in their plight.

motel room wrote:

Nachomamma8 wrote:

motel room wrote:

Vompatti wrote:I wouldn't mind wine in front of me if you know what I mean.

Don't do it, you wind up with five bottles on the grass and a gash in your hand and a hangover at work today.

what's your read on long con?

who

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry, had to fix some dinner.

Epignosis wrote:I'm calling five missing votes for Day 1.

Nachomamma8 wrote:Drunk darts have failed.
I will probably catch up when I get home. Sig, why were you bothered by MP's motel room vote?

Scotty wrote:

sig wrote:This was a very weak reason I'm espacilly eyeing MP and the people who voted for Zebra.

I also find it odd WIlgy missed the vote, if MP does end up being mafia I'd like to look into lynching Wilgy.

Its day 1. What more convincing articles could you have for day 1?

And "the people who voted zebra" are...just me. Can I help you with your eyes?

MovingPictures07 wrote:

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

You've provided reads yes, but you've done nothing that sticks out one way or another if that makes sense. So your posting and in my mind I know that you're being active but, from my read over you don't seem to be being helpful.

I find that to be very odd.

How does "very odd" or "helpful" translate to "I believe you have a mafia role card"? I'm missing your link.

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Quin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

I suspect sig for this. There's another post later on I'll get to eventually, but I could easily interpret this as a bad sig not even reading the thread, hence 'not remembering' a whole 17 (... )meaty posts in a row from MP.

I would say that if anyone suspecting me right now is mafia, it's most believable to be sig, but I'm a bit hesitant to pursue that train of thought aggressively for multiple reasons:

1) I have not yet had the opportunity to engage directly with sig and he has not yet seen these recent responses of mine, so perhaps he has not had enough information to come to a more informed assessment of me.

2) sig not thoroughly examining the thread, or even reading it, and then making gut-based interpretations of my behavior is just as compatible with a town sig that increasingly is becoming bothered with aspects of my behavior in the game as it is with a mafia sig that is trying to push me as mislynch because everyone on this site knows that I'm a relatively easy mislynch to push. Do you have reason to believe that it is more compatible with the latter explanation? I haven't seen anything compelling personally.

3) Although I do still firmly believe it is on sig that he does not recall my content, his accusation is still potentially legitimate if he believes I am a mafia member manufacturing my suspicions and trying to flood the thread with posts but my substance in those posts is lacking. Now the point I was raised in my quoted post above was that I was contributing more than nearly everyone else, and while that is likely unarguable, mulling over it I think I missed sig's point and that was that he believes, in comparison to his perception of what he believes town MP would be posting, my content is lacking. I did not adequately address that concern.

sig, let me know if you want to engage on any of this.

Epignosis wrote:

sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.

On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Nachomamma8 wrote:And, while I'm at it: MovingPictures, would you mind elaborating on your LC town lean a little more? I understand there might not be much behind it, but what do you think of him scumreading DrWigly early? It seems to me that DrWigly doing something weird (like not reading his role PM) isn't really unexpected and I don't actually think there's any scum motivation behind not reading your role PM; why don't you think that he's pushing on an easy target early?

If I was able to vote and change my vote, I'd be voting Long Con for those reasons; MovingPictures is a civilian read at this point.

Yeah, there really isn't much behind it, and LC is historically difficult for me to read. LC's post history has seemed genuine to me; I like the way he handled Mac's "you're trying too hard" with "try harder", he handled the accusation well.

You make a good argument as to why Wilgy's not worth scum reading though; that's why I didn't find it worth any read personally. I've been wrong about LC before for what seemed like manufactured or opportunistic early suspicions though.

I'm historically pretty damn good at reading LC - defending him against bad accusations, attacking him when no one else will listen..

For right now I think he is town. His role analysis shines more when he is town, I think. I can't put it into exact words, but there is a depth to it that indicates genuine thought an desire to get the answers.

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.

Golden wrote:Hey zebra. I see you lurking - although maybe you can only post in smilies right now. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the game so far though.

Also, snow, sorry for not buddying you sooner, but it's nice to meet you. Your name comes up a lot, so I'm looking forward to playing with you.

Golden wrote:Re my opinion on MP

I have seen him be frustrated at accusations as both alignments.
I've seen him buddy people as both alignments.

I can recall specific instances of him burning me with each of them in the past when bad, but it's easy to let 'you have done that to me when bad before' sway your read to 'bad' when it's actually 'null'.

I also think that MP has been incredibly regularly on the table for lynching on day one/two recently, and I've seen a marked uptick in him getting frustrated at the accusations early rather than maintaining a rational calm. Again, I see this as null, because I've seen it as both alignments. And I don't really blame him - I have been through runs in the past where I'm in that spot where no matter what you do, people are immediately inspecting me and declaring me bad, and it can get very frustrating. Sometimes you just want a run of not being on defense to get your hunting straight.

All of those null things straight - here are things I've seen as genuinely potentially alignment-indicative from MP

1) His happiness to have the game going at a slow pace - town-aligned. I think he would be much more focussed on his meta upkeep if he was bad, but in this game I did not get the sense he cared about maintaining any appearance. This is also a major town tell with me, and I believe it's a pretty reliable one.

2) His focus on nacho in the early game - feeling out and interacting with a new player - town-aligned. I felt like MP was genuinely trying to get a good sense of who he is and what he is bringing to the table.

3) His inability to see epi's case as holding merit - slightly bad-leaning. I can understand the frustration, but I have more difficulty understanding why MP wouldn't recognise a legitimate meta case and respond to it as such (rather than a nonsense case). It may be based on a predisposition to assume epi's cases are not intended to hold merit but are just intended to see what responses come, which is in fact the tack MP took. It's also something epi is well known for doing. But that makes it a very easy 'rote' defense to any epi case.

Overall, I still see MP as town-aligned, and in particular point (1) is very persuasive to me.

Long Con wrote:

sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.

Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.

Scotty wrote:

sig wrote:

Long Con wrote:

sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.

Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.

It's an avenue I said could be present, but it would be more likely that you killed him before he started to read you as bad and not because he was reading you as good.

I don't put much credence in my ISO of Golden though.

Do you usually put credence in NK analyses? Or is it just for Golden?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Working on the sig ISO. Spoiler alert: this guy looks bad. Real bad.

motel room wrote:

sig wrote:I do want to point out it seems that Zebra and myself were two counter wagons, but I don't think it very likely that the mafia would stack one of those wagons or push to hard.

What do you mean? I'm not sure how you can assume that.

Sorry to see you go MP.

MovingPictures07 wrote:ISO of sig

==========================================================================================================================

Day 1

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

Seems a little early MP.

Also up to page six and nobody has mentioned me yet. I'm insulted.

This is an admittedly minor grievance, but I don't have anything to like in this post. The vague sentiment that my tongue-in-cheek town team-up comment "seems early" shifts attention in my direction but in a noncommittal and unspecific fashion.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Boomslang wrote:Also, obligatory finger-pointing at a2zebra, sig, and motel room for either not posting in Day 1 or posting nothing of substance. Sig, I see you lurking. What's on your mind?

That math test wasn't to hard
Roommate is dumb
Shameless is a good show y'all should watch it
Zebra has been quiet (hello pot meet kettle lets both be black together)
Drunken Motel seemed a little weird
I dislike Mac clearing Motel for being drunk, very pingy?
No vibes from LC either way I'll ISO him later
Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating
I dislike the vote for Wilgy, this is his normal behavior
Epi is being very fluffy, which is normal but less content then usually.
and I remember very little from MP's posts which is odd since I know he is posting alot, I just can't recall them.

So a few minor pings for MP, Mac, and Motel.

Boom and Quin both look okay so far. \

And I'm off to bed, but I'll be on tomorrow with a few more in depth reads (hopefully) and around to cast my vote. I plan to look over LC, MP, and Mac before voting.

Here's sig's first meaty post of the game (fourth overall). He concludes that he had minor pings for three players, so I highlighted what he wrote about those players to compare/contrast with what he wrote about the rest.

Although sig's thoughts on me and Mac were a bit vague, and I think those thoughts could be easily fabricated, I can see a potential link between his initial thoughts expressed here and concluding that they were minor pings. I'm having trouble reconciling sig's thoughts on motel room with a minor ping, however, since "seemed a little weird" is an incredibly vague version of a ping/accusation. This is potentially bothersome if it came at a point in the thread in which motel room was already receiving negative attention (note to self / others: investigate this).

Also, sig, where's that LC ISO?

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Golden wrote:

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

Seems a little early MP.

Also up to page six and nobody has mentioned me yet. I'm insulted.

I was just about to mention you. I have to vote before I go to bed, and your absence might get my vote unless you give me some reason not to. I know you are busy, but i want your siggish thoughts.

I gave out some, on the more siggish line of thinking I can't shake my ping of Nacho and Mac, my nacho ping is purely a gut read, for Mac I dislike how he cleared motel for being drunk and how he was prodding discussion early on, without giving his own thoughts.

Scotty wrote:I mistakenly thought that BWT was the only one that hadn't posted, and from a cursory glance it looks like sig and zebra haven't even checked in the thread yet.

And dog has even been around apparently, without posting.

Dog did check in.

There is an unexplained discrepancy in sig's posts back to back, which is a bad look. In sig's previous post, he said "Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating", but here he says he can't shake his ping of Nacho. The ping he can't shake is also completely vague (gut read). This needs to be explained by sig ASAP, because there is nothing in either post that indicates a change of mind, which implies that sig lost track of whether he found Nacho a town or mafia read. I don't see how a member of the town genuinely could lose track of that. This is troublesome.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

MacDougall wrote:

sig wrote:

Boomslang wrote:Also, obligatory finger-pointing at a2zebra, sig, and motel room for either not posting in Day 1 or posting nothing of substance. Sig, I see you lurking. What's on your mind?

That math test wasn't to hard
Roommate is dumb
Shameless is a good show y'all should watch it
Zebra has been quiet (hello pot meet kettle lets both be black together)
Drunken Motel seemed a little weird
I dislike Mac clearing Motel for being drunk, very pingy?
No vibes from LC either way I'll ISO him later
Nacho is posting alot looking good, but I think we should watch him a mafia member becoming a town leader can be devastating
I dislike the vote for Wilgy, this is his normal behavior
Epi is being very fluffy, which is normal but less content then usually.
and I remember very little from MP's posts which is odd since I know he is posting alot, I just can't recall them.

So a few minor pings for MP, Mac, and Motel.

Boom and Quin both look okay so far. \

And I'm off to bed, but I'll be on tomorrow with a few more in depth reads (hopefully) and around to cast my vote. I plan to look over LC, MP, and Mac before voting.

Sig is town guys.

Why am I town?

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.

Sig has been busy and he kinda forgot about the game.

I find it odd you plan to vote for me for being quieter then usually seems like a good scapegoat vote.

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

You've provided reads yes, but you've done nothing that sticks out one way or another if that makes sense. So your posting and in my mind I know that you're being active but, from my read over you don't seem to be being helpful.

I find that to be very odd.

I don't like sig's mention of "odd" twice in this post, because I feel like "odd" and "weird" and similar synonyms are easy ways for mafia members to manufacture suspicion without much substance. Furthermore, I find it highly dubious that odd behavior translates to suspicious behavior, as townies act oddly or irrationally often.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

DrWilgy wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Let's go to Melee Island, where we can play a more awesome video game called Super Smash Bros. Melee.

Only if you let me wave shine you into upsmash.

Hello everyone. My name is DrWilgy and I am most definitely a smash player.

I have not checked my role nor do I plan to. I will, however, assist townies in their plight.

Okay so this seems to be the post that is getting Wilgy votes, an early day 0 jokey post? I don't like the votes on him at all, it seems to be an easy place to throw your day 1 vote and not take responsibility for faulty logic if he flips civ. Also as someone who has been lynched for day 0 jokey posts I'm naturally agaisnt lynching based off of them.

Epi is acting like Epi, which means nothing alignment wise. I do like his observation about MP though.

Mac hasn't contributed much yet, mainly fluff or one liners. I would like him to explain his town read of me better.

Not enough from LC to have an opinion of him one way or another.

linki: Okay I see your point on LC, I'm not sure if I agree or not though.

Here sig doubles down on a defense of DrWilgy (in a previous post he said that Wilgy's behavior is 'normal meta'). I like his thoughts on Wilgy here, as he sticks his neck out for him, but I'm not sure how alignment indicative it really is. The rest of the post is full of noncommittal statements indicating no thoughts about whether sig finds anything alignment indicative of those players' behavior. Overall I don't feel much of anything about this post.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

motel room wrote:

Nachomamma8 wrote:

motel room wrote:

Vompatti wrote:I wouldn't mind wine in front of me if you know what I mean.

Don't do it, you wind up with five bottles on the grass and a gash in your hand and a hangover at work today.

what's your read on long con?

who

This is a super weird post by motel room.


Also it is to god damn early to be playing Christmas music, this is what's wrong with our country! Christmas music before Thanksgiving.

Another vague post. Says motel room's post is "super weird", but doesn't elaborate upon it. Slightly bad look.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Mac, it's clear we are both civilian this game so let's team up.

Why?

MovingPictures07 wrote:Sorry, had to fix some dinner.

Did you break dinner before you fixed it?

After rereading MP post I still have the same feeling lots of post, but not alot said if that makes sense?

Also he responded very defensively to both mine and Epis posts.

One last thing I find odd he defends himself from Epi's observation by saying he usually roles scum so they shouldn't count........He is basically saying he is more likely to be mafia and still not really rebutting Epi's point. It just seems like a really weird way to defend oneself.

I've gotta head over to class but I'll be back in time to vote.
I'm looking at Blooper, Soneji, MP, and motel right now.

Blooper/Soneji for their votes on Wilgy


linki: Very true re meta, but lynching based around the fact Wilgy is being Wilgy is bad, since his early meta is usually the same regardless of alignment.

Yeah the mall and the starbucks down here have been playing Christmas stuff since the beginning of November, wayyyyy to early.

Here sig elaborates upon his suspicion of me, which I feel is difficult for me to attempt to judge without some sort of bias, so your thoughts would be appreciated. He says he is eyeballing Wilgy voters (Blooper and Soneji) and motel room. I still find it bothersome that sig is continuing to bang the motel room drum. It's especially ironic given sig's subsequent post here:

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:This was a very weak reason I'm espacilly eyeing MP and the people who voted for Zebra.

I also find it odd WIlgy missed the vote, if MP does end up being mafia I'd like to look into lynching Wilgy.

where he criticizes me for my "weak" vote after saying he suspects motel room all d1 with next to no reason. I find this incredibly suspicious behavior.

I find it intriguing that sig says if I am mafia, he would like to look into lynching Wilgy, yet he defended Wilgy more than any other player prior to this point. This presents further reason for me to believe that sig is manufacturing his thoughts on players.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I'm calling five missing votes for Day 1.

Make that four i voted


Voted mp, his playstyle is reminding me of the scrimmage and his vote fkr motel is odd as is his defensive behaviour. While I'm okay with a motel lynxh it seems really ooc for mp.

Votes for me based on being out of character yet simultaneously similar to another game (Scrimmage game). Not sure why I didn't find it off previously, but there is a bit of cognitive dissonance there. sig, if you can elaborate how my behavior was simultaneously out of character yet similar to my behavior in another game, that'd be great.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Nachomamma8 wrote:Drunk darts have failed.
I will probably catch up when I get home. Sig, why were you bothered by MP's motel room vote?

It seemed to have come out of nowhere and was an easy scapegoat for a day 1 vote, I do believe that day 1 can be the easiest to catch mafia on weak reasoning, so they're more likely to find something dumb, to throw a vote on and that was something you could throw a vote on. Like I said it seems to be a lack of reasoning and not something civ MP would do.

linki: I find the vote missing more odd then the not reading role card, I think he has and is just saying he hasn't

Further alarm bells. He doubles down on criticizing me for my motel room vote when he previously said he suspected motel room and said he'd be okay with it. This is suspicious.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Scotty wrote:

sig wrote:This was a very weak reason I'm espacilly eyeing MP and the people who voted for Zebra.

I also find it odd WIlgy missed the vote, if MP does end up being mafia I'd like to look into lynching Wilgy.

Its day 1. What more convincing articles could you have for day 1?

And "the people who voted zebra" are...just me. Can I help you with your eyes?

Snow also voted for Zebra you don't seem to be reading clearly.

MP didn't mention his vote was self preservation when he did the voting though, that just came up after motel flipped. I'm really being pinged by MP right now.

Pushes suspicion of me further. Quin's post expressing dislike of this content makes an excellent point; sig's post implies that he doesn't care whether I am being genuine in whether my vote was out of self-preservation, only the fact that I didn't state that it was.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

You've provided reads yes, but you've done nothing that sticks out one way or another if that makes sense. So your posting and in my mind I know that you're being active but, from my read over you don't seem to be being helpful.

I find that to be very odd.

How does "very odd" or "helpful" translate to "I believe you have a mafia role card"? I'm missing your link.

If your playing odd or doing strange thing your more likely to be mafia
and town is generally helpful since they want to catch scum. So it translates very nicely.

I commented on this post at the time with basically "No". I feel the same way now. sig's "odd = suspicious" statement here is something I think is absolutely false, and he provides no substantive backing for his assertion.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Quin wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:sig, I've provided more reads on players than almost everyone else in the game. If you can't remember my content that's on you, not me.

I suspect sig for this. There's another post later on I'll get to eventually, but I could easily interpret this as a bad sig not even reading the thread, hence 'not remembering' a whole 17 (... )meaty posts in a row from MP.

I would say that if anyone suspecting me right now is mafia, it's most believable to be sig, but I'm a bit hesitant to pursue that train of thought aggressively for multiple reasons:

1) I have not yet had the opportunity to engage directly with sig and he has not yet seen these recent responses of mine, so perhaps he has not had enough information to come to a more informed assessment of me.

2) sig not thoroughly examining the thread, or even reading it, and then making gut-based interpretations of my behavior is just as compatible with a town sig that increasingly is becoming bothered with aspects of my behavior in the game as it is with a mafia sig that is trying to push me as mislynch because everyone on this site knows that I'm a relatively easy mislynch to push. Do you have reason to believe that it is more compatible with the latter explanation? I haven't seen anything compelling personally.

3) Although I do still firmly believe it is on sig that he does not recall my content, his accusation is still potentially legitimate if he believes I am a mafia member manufacturing my suspicions and trying to flood the thread with posts but my substance in those posts is lacking. Now the point I was raised in my quoted post above was that I was contributing more than nearly everyone else, and while that is likely unarguable, mulling over it I think I missed sig's point and that was that he believes, in comparison to his perception of what he believes town MP would be posting, my content is lacking. I did not adequately address that concern.

sig, let me know if you want to engage on any of this.

Yeah MP hit the nail on the head, also it isn't that he isn't posting content it's that he is posting content in an MP mafia sort of way. Maybe i'm just paranoid after seeing him destroy town in Scrimmage, since in that game he flooded the thread amd it was meaty, but it was lacking content since he wasn't attempting to actually solve the game, but distract people. That is what I was seeing from day 1 MP, so of course I sounded off and pointed it out.

I still have a mafia lean on MP, but less so after his latest batch of posts.

In response to Quin wanting sig's head, I expressed that I believed sig is the most likely accuser of me to be bad, but I stated three clear hesitations in heavily pursuing that train of thought. Perhaps I shouldn't have done that quite yet, since here sig comes back into the thread and basically says "yeah, what MP said". It could be that I did indeed hit the nail on the head, but this is also an easy way for a mafia sig to backpedal a bit and not have to provide his own response to Quin.

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Day 2

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:Now i know post death ISO aren't common for night kills on TS, but I decided to do one anyway espacilly since I believe they give valuable insight on a characters death, so I'm going over Golden right now to see what I see.

Besides that I'm at a lose on who could be mafia. LC, Epi, and MP all look good right now. I'm a little iffy of Snowdog for his vote on zebra, but that only comes into play if MP is mafia.

I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.

sig states that LC, Epi, and I all are town reads. sig's gradual change from strongly suspecting me to less so during n1 to not at all now, with no associated reasoning, again would be an easy thing to fake. I also find his thoughts on me tend to coincide opportunistically with sentiment currently in the thread, which lends more credence to the theory that he is manufacturing them.

What is further problematic is that sig states here that he believes the mafia didn't vote at all or voted on a non wagon. This is a 180 from everything he was blasting me and Wilgy voters for the prior day, with no apparent reason for the change. Suspicious as hell.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Epignosis wrote:

sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.

On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?

It is rather rare for kills not to be submitted isn't it? It also requires very little effort to submit a kill. If only one player could do it I might be able to see that argument, however it is very unlikely a whole team was so inactive that they didn't send in a kill.

Okay Quin I was wondering if you had any other reasoning

Here are sig's thoughts on the lack of n1 kill. He argues against the inactive argument. I find this null, but thought it was worth highlighting in here.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Golden wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

Nachomamma8 wrote:And, while I'm at it: MovingPictures, would you mind elaborating on your LC town lean a little more? I understand there might not be much behind it, but what do you think of him scumreading DrWigly early? It seems to me that DrWigly doing something weird (like not reading his role PM) isn't really unexpected and I don't actually think there's any scum motivation behind not reading your role PM; why don't you think that he's pushing on an easy target early?

If I was able to vote and change my vote, I'd be voting Long Con for those reasons; MovingPictures is a civilian read at this point.

Yeah, there really isn't much behind it, and LC is historically difficult for me to read. LC's post history has seemed genuine to me; I like the way he handled Mac's "you're trying too hard" with "try harder", he handled the accusation well.

You make a good argument as to why Wilgy's not worth scum reading though; that's why I didn't find it worth any read personally. I've been wrong about LC before for what seemed like manufactured or opportunistic early suspicions though.

I'm historically pretty damn good at reading LC - defending him against bad accusations, attacking him when no one else will listen..

For right now I think he is town. His role analysis shines more when he is town, I think. I can't put it into exact words, but there is a depth to it that indicates genuine thought an desire to get the answers.

I found this bit on LC interesting will get back to it later.

Golden wrote:I feel more clueless than usual for day one - I don't have any active bad reads. My vote is going to a player who I don't think has yet matched my perception of their civ meta.

I feel a bit like a dick doing that because I know how frustrating I find it when I get lynched on day one merely for not posting 150 times! But I have nothing better to go on.

That means, for me, motel room, sig or ninja. I normally get an early town vibe from MR that is lacking here. Sig is waaay too quiet for sig. Ninja's check in was probably before any content developed, but she is adept at using her limited posts well and that's what I'm waiting to see.

I'd wait for the morning if I could, but I can't. So, ninja it is.

Mentions me and Ninja, for being to quiet he did end up voting for Ninja but he didn't really push on her.

Golden wrote:Hey zebra. I see you lurking - although maybe you can only post in smilies right now. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the game so far though.

Also, snow, sorry for not buddying you sooner, but it's nice to meet you. Your name comes up a lot, so I'm looking forward to playing with you.

Talks about zebra worth noting, but again he wasn't really pushing zebra.

Golden wrote:Re my opinion on MP

I have seen him be frustrated at accusations as both alignments.
I've seen him buddy people as both alignments.

I can recall specific instances of him burning me with each of them in the past when bad, but it's easy to let 'you have done that to me when bad before' sway your read to 'bad' when it's actually 'null'.

I also think that MP has been incredibly regularly on the table for lynching on day one/two recently, and I've seen a marked uptick in him getting frustrated at the accusations early rather than maintaining a rational calm. Again, I see this as null, because I've seen it as both alignments. And I don't really blame him - I have been through runs in the past where I'm in that spot where no matter what you do, people are immediately inspecting me and declaring me bad, and it can get very frustrating. Sometimes you just want a run of not being on defense to get your hunting straight.

All of those null things straight - here are things I've seen as genuinely potentially alignment-indicative from MP

1) His happiness to have the game going at a slow pace - town-aligned. I think he would be much more focussed on his meta upkeep if he was bad, but in this game I did not get the sense he cared about maintaining any appearance. This is also a major town tell with me, and I believe it's a pretty reliable one.

2) His focus on nacho in the early game - feeling out and interacting with a new player - town-aligned. I felt like MP was genuinely trying to get a good sense of who he is and what he is bringing to the table.

3) His inability to see epi's case as holding merit - slightly bad-leaning. I can understand the frustration, but I have more difficulty understanding why MP wouldn't recognise a legitimate meta case and respond to it as such (rather than a nonsense case). It may be based on a predisposition to assume epi's cases are not intended to hold merit but are just intended to see what responses come, which is in fact the tack MP took. It's also something epi is well known for doing. But that makes it a very easy 'rote' defense to any epi case.

Overall, I still see MP as town-aligned, and in particular point (1) is very persuasive to me.

A big post defending MP which I find interesting.

All in all we see very little from Golden he mentions that he can read LC well and sees him as being townie and that he has MP as town-aligned. Now knowing that many TS people won't put much merit in why people are killed and having a town aligned read for day 1 isn't that big a deal I think we can discount that MP/LC killed him to look better.

The largest post that stands out to me is what Golden said about LC, however it really doesn't give me a better or worse opinion of LC. If we believe this post had something to do with Golden's death we can glen two things.

LC is mafia and killed Golden before he could get a solid read on him
or
Mafia killed Golden in an attempt to set up LC

Two seems very unlikely for reasons stated above, so I'm leaning to one if this line of thinking is correct. I could also see LC killing Golden day 1. This is nowhere near enough evidence to lynch LC, but i do think it is something to keep in mind.
Besides that I don't see much from my ISO of Golden he was having a slow start and just kind off prodding people. The only other thought that comes to mind is Golden was killed since he was defending MP and the mafia is hoping we lynch MP, but all these theories have no real basis in reality and I wouldn't bet on any of them.

I initially felt good about sig's contribution here with an night kill analysis / ISO of Golden. I feel a bit less inspired now, since I don't think there is any reason to town or mafia read sig for this contribution, seeing as it could have been easily made with a mindset from either alignment. This is still the best post he's made so far though. It at least has the semblance of appearing as though he wants to solve the game, whether that's true or not.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Long Con wrote:

sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.

Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.

It's an avenue I said could be present, but it would be more likely that you killed him before he started to read you as bad and not because he was reading you as good.

I don't put much credence in my ISO of Golden though.

It is intriguing that sig is really downplaying his NKA ISO post. I'm not sure what to make of that.

Spoiler: show

sig wrote:

Scotty wrote:

sig wrote:

Long Con wrote:

sig wrote:I could also see LC killing Golden day 1.

Not so likely. I'd kill plenty before killing Golden.

I kind of skimmed your big post, but it looked like Golden said he's good at reading me, so I killed him. Sorry, my time is short right now, I'll try again in a bit.

It's an avenue I said could be present, but it would be more likely that you killed him before he started to read you as bad and not because he was reading you as good.

I don't put much credence in my ISO of Golden though.

Do you usually put credence in NK analyses? Or is it just for Golden?

I would say it varies on each situation.
I'm less confident in this NKA since Golden had few posts and nothing that really stuck out for why he would be NK'd, plus I usually find D1 night kills to be more random, since people's thoughts are in general more random. Furthermore Golden is a good player so the mafia could just have just killed him since he is a stronger player.

Overall alot of WIFOM is put into NKA and it's sometimes very helpful, but could also mean absolutely nothing. Which is why I'm not really pursuing anyone because of Golden's ISO there just wasn't really enough information present.

A continuation of the prior post, sig is waffly on whether his NKA ISO was helpful or meaningless. That's great and all, but at this point if he really cared about solving the game I think he'd start investigating some players.

==========================================================================================================================

In conclusion, I would place sig in the orange (moderate mafia) section of my rainbow. There is plenty of reason to doubt whether sig's contributions are genuine, though I wouldn't say this is a slam dunk case by any means.

Please throw your thoughts at me regarding this analysis, especially since sig is typical mislynch fodder, and some of this was admittedly difficult for me to analyze 'objectively' given I was sig's biggest target of suspicion during d1. Where do you agree? Disagree? How are you reading sig?

Epignosis wrote:Long Con, are you a people eater?

a2thezebra wrote:I want to lynch Quin.

That's right suckers I can talk.

a2thezebra wrote:But I already voted for Snow Dog who is also bad so #YOLO

a2thezebra wrote:Black Rock and Epi are civ

a2thezebra wrote:Voting Snow Dog again.

MacDougall wrote:Zebra post more or be obliterated.

MacDougall wrote:

Long Con wrote:Hello, I did check my role PM before I came here.

Scotty wrote:Man, I would hate to be on your team if I were bad.

Yeah, Wilgy is already suspicious to me.

DrWilgy wrote:Yeah, I've decided that being blind will be my meme play this game.

Indeed.

Golden wrote:Voted melee island - that's always where the adventure starts. You can't cut right to the third act.

Good point. Same-same.

You are trying too hard.

MacDougall wrote:

MovingPictures07 wrote:

MacDougall wrote:

Long Con wrote:Hello, I did check my role PM before I came here.

Scotty wrote:Man, I would hate to be on your team if I were bad.

Yeah, Wilgy is already suspicious to me.

DrWilgy wrote:Yeah, I've decided that being blind will be my meme play this game.

Indeed.

Golden wrote:Voted melee island - that's always where the adventure starts. You can't cut right to the third act.

Good point. Same-same.

You are trying too hard.

What specifically in LC's post gives you that impression?

Just forcing his read.

MacDougall wrote:Haha thanks.

Epignosis is bad. Discuss.

Quin wrote:

sig wrote:I need to go to bed for real now, did a quick read over of Boom's post they don't look bad.

I'd like some opinions on quin? I had an early ping on him and I disliked his day 1 vote, but from there I haven't had time to read over his stuff in depth. I also disliked the fact that Quin had both me and Epi pegged as mafia along with BK, he votes for me bringing me closer to BK in votes and is still smearing Epi.

Tell me why my case against you or Epi was disingenuous. I don't get the rest of whatever point you're trying to make.

Your case boiled down to Epi going after low posters, however you had BK a low poster at the same rainbow list level as Epi.

After BK flips his opinion of Epi changes.

Why is this suspicious?

You seemed to be playing both sides of the argument and remaining neutral in case BK didn't get lynched. So you could pursue Epi, but also wouldn't look to bad if BK flipped mafia.

There is the potential of some bussing here, he didn't jump on the BK wagon but he had her down as a mafia lean.

I had multiple people as a mafia lean. You and Epi were the only ones I'd made proper cases on. Obviously my vote was going to one of the two of you. There was no Black Rock wagon either. I believe she only had one vote at the time.

However, I find it odd he had her down as mafia read along with both myself and Epi.

Tell me why you find this odd.

Becuase it seems like you're playing both sides, I've done this multiple times as mafia myself.
He also defended BK by saying we shouldn't target lurkers and used that as his reasoning agaisnt Epi.

I didn't defend anyone; I specifically accused.

In not wanting to go after low posters you defended BK who was a low poster, you also thought Epi was mafia since he went after a low poster, so you did kind off defend BK.

In fact the more I think about Quin being a baddie the more logical it seems. I'll attempt to do a real ISO of him tomorrow.

I could see my vote going to Quin or Zebra.

Scotty wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:All my best friends died. Why do I want to play this game anymore? Oh come back Ian, we miss you. WELL DON'T DIE THEN!!!!!

This post seems genuine. I'm not so sure you would have been fine killing your friends so early. Which ones were your friends exactly? Epi, MP, Golden?

This is why I asked a question early on as to who would not feel comfortable killing someone as part of a larger meta. And you certainly fit the bill.

You still could have killed DF and Quin

Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm cool w/long con
if you vote soneji tomorrow i won't vote you

thellama73 wrote:

Snow Dog wrote:Did I succesfully block anything?

On Night Six you successfully blocked Scotty's attempt to kill Vomps.