The Syndicate

Uh.

GO NAVY!

Live look at the Birmingham Bowl:

I had the over on that game. I turned it off with about five minutes in the fourth quarter to go. Looks like I turned it off at the wrong time.

Holy cow.

The method you've described here is going to generate some majorly skewed results (as is evinced by your having Clemson favored so highly over Alabama when Clemson is a slight dog right now).

Yardage doesn't always tell the story. It's a piece of the puzzle, sure, but those numbers are going to vary wildly from team to team depending on the coaching tendencies and a given team's offensive scheme. Some successful teams like to grind out the game, so while their yardage totals may be low, they can build a lead and start killing the clock.

Certain other factors tend to play a bigger role than raw numbers.

1. Home field advantage. This is going to be more of a factor for some teams than others due to splits, and sometimes those splits are absurd, even for individual players (there's an NBA player for the Rockets who is a terrible shooter at home, but much better away, apparently because he is colorblind and being at home around all that red fiddles with his depth perception).

2. Injuries and suspension. This is a big one for me when I handicap teams. If a team is missing key pieces due to injuries or suspensions, it's a bump to the opposing offense or defense. Raw data like yards vs. yards allowed mean less and less the more decimated a given team is.

3. Weather. If it's extremely cold, snowing or rainy, very windy, etc., it affects game play. Wind can be especially crippling. Bump down kickers significantly and the passing game slightly. Bump up the running game slightly. If the game is played in a dome, obviously weather won't matter.

4. Rest and travel. How many days of rest has a team had? What kind of travel are they dealing with?

These are some things to consider.

A stat that I find to be very helpful in general would be yards allowed to position (WR / RB / TE). Some teams may boast shutdown corners, but struggle against the run. Or they can stop the run but get beat in the air. Consider a team's defensive capabilities (or shortcomings) and compare that to the offensive scheme of their opponent.

Another thing you might consider is QB splits versus defensive schemes. Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers is the most scheme sensitive quarterback in the NFL. He has excelled against zone coverage, but struggles against man coverage (although this may change due to recent personnel changes).

TCU is currently favored by three points.

You could add a heavily weighted category, "Epignosis bet on this team" and downgrade them.

G-Man, I took TCU to win by four or more.