The Syndicate

Yarrrr. Be the town watcher one who finds out who targets their target?

Reading through the game. Up through page 3. Voting DDL.

This game is quiet so far. Be ye a bunch of landlubbers?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:57 pm After my shit call in meeting at 1:00, I shall rave Bob to catch up and provide less off the cuff reads.

Up through page 10 or so, I'm feeling pretty firm in my DDL vote.

Sorry, forgot it doesn't auto-subscribe when you post. Anyway, I like DDL as mafia. Give me a sec and I'll show some of why.

Yeah I did. Just saw we only have like 15 minutes.

Alright well it's less strong than I first thought when catching up initially, but go back and look at MP starting here:

Spoiler: show

He questions basically everybody else who's posted in the thread, but not really DDL. Similarly, DDL pushes on other people, but just asks MP about scumreads. Just feels to me like mafiosos dancing around each other without really interacting.

(Also the vote stuff seems to point to him, thanks kyle)

Also of note (not specifically in regards to DDL):

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:18 am *snip*
My town reads are Kyle, Wilgy, and sig. I am tentatively leaning town on dunya and speedchuck but can’t sort either of them yet. Everyone else is a ?.
*snip*

My guess is he has one teammate in his reads here and one not. Leaning speedchuck for that teammate initially but the no lynch vote today is good. Also I've still got like half the thread to read, including the MP lynch, so take my reads are subject to change.

Hmmm EoD 1 is either hella distancing or my DDL theory isn't great. Continuing to read.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:24 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:38 pm

(one less number will put us at Lylo rather than Mylo if we no lynch and continue as normal)
Eh... no?

We have 7 players left. If someone dies this night we are left at six. So we just wasted a lynch. Now we have to lynch the two baddies left in the two remaining days.

If we had lynched town yesterday:
Night 4: 4 town, 2 mafia
Day 5: 3 town, 2 mafia - LyLo
Night 5: 3 town, 1 mafia
Day 6: 2 town, 1 mafia - LyLo

Going no lynch:
Night 4: 5 town, 2 mafia
Day 5: 4 town, 2 mafia - MyLo
Night 5 (no lynch): 4 town, 2 mafia
Day 6: 3 town, 2 mafia - LyLo, same as Day 5 above

or

Night 5: 4 town, 1 mafia
Day 6: 3 town, 1 mafia - MyLo

That all checks out, right?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:29 am We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.

Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:40 am
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:36 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:29 am We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.
Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).
You don't know if Kyle is a townie or not. Unless you're bad.

And lynching a townie would have been better than what we did now (no lynch twice and basically hand free kills to the mafia). At least we had a slight chance of hitting mafia if Kyle was mafia.

Now we don't know if him, me or anyone else is mafia. And we are heading to lylo having to lynch right twice in a row.

I didn't say I knew, I said I thought. And yeah, it probably was a bad move. My vanilla game is weak and atrophied, I'll freely admit that. I was actually contemplating a fakeclaim today, but then Daisy died and that plan got shelved quickly. So now it's back to reading through the MP lynch and seeing if I can figure out if somebody is bad.

I should also probably say I voted speedchuck and and as of right now plan to vote into speedchuck/ddl/kyle

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:05 pm Though you can argue whether it's better to [go no lynch] now or in Day 6. Upside of doing it now is that there are less people to pick from next day. Downside is that we'll be dealing with s scenario where the remaining two baddies can easily push a lynch on a civ as long as 1 civ votes for each other.

Upside of doing it later is that we avoid that and don't provide such an easy way out for the baddies. But we have to get it right today with a 1/3 chance, instead of a 40% chance tomorrow.

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:18 pm I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.
But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?

A) We still had a power role
B) It wasn't punting as much as "lynch Kyle or nobody and I was thinking Kyle was Town"
C) yes I screwed up and have already acknowledged that

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:22 pm We have too many suspects. There are some people playing weak townie games, my slot included. Even if someone not seriously being looked at right now (Sig, Bob, me) gets killed, that is still super helpful right now imo.

How? At best it's WIFOM. More likely it's just the same stuff tomorrow but with one less unaccounted vote.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:31 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:27 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:20 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:18 pm I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.
But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?
A) We still had a power role
B) It wasn't punting as much as "lynch Kyle or nobody and I was thinking Kyle was Town"
C) yes I screwed up and have already acknowledged that
A) We had a jailkeeper or a doc. The fuck does that make going no lynch any better? If they stopped a kill, we wasted our extra day.

That reasoning should be mostly B and C, with a dash of A. And if the power role stops a kill that's somebody they know isn't mafia (if doctor) or info on somebody who's town or mafia (if JK).

But again I'm skeptical of somebody who wants to just go no lynch from the get go today.

I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:45 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:39 pm I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.
Realms D1 and Mylo are two wildly different things.

You're arguing not to make a pit stop a good chick of the way into the race because you wouldn't do it on the first lap.

Mathematically, going no lynch is the correct option, made that way by the mistakes/tricks of players yesterday.

I'm not engaging this line of argument any more, because it's sidetracking from anything productive.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:30 pm So let's be productive. Tell me about your vote.

Gut mostly. Also didn't like the voters in Wilgy D1, and quin already turned up town.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:55 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:59 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:30 pm So let's be productive. Tell me about your vote.
Gut mostly. Also didn't like the voters in Wilgy D1, and quin already turned up town.
Forgive me if I don't think risking the entire game on the gut of a playervwith very little content. DDL also voted Wilgy Day 1.

I know why I suspect Speed more than DDL. I'm not convinced you actually do.

So make a case and hunt then? I'm not asking you to risk the game based on me, and this is a weird way of deflecting doing anything.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:19 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:39 pm I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.
Thing is, we are beyond the point of gathering info. That ship sailed last day.

It's lynch mafia now, or lynch mafia tomorrow. It's time to decide the game.

But if we decide no lynch from the outset today, we do this all tomorrow with the only change being who mafia kills. And since there's no power roles left we can assume the mafia will kill the townies person.

Alternatively, we hunt today. We may find a consensus on a mafioso, in which case great. We may not, in which caee we're back at scenario 1 but with another day phase of hunting to look over. I just don't see the downside.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:29 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:22 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:19 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:39 pm I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.
Thing is, we are beyond the point of gathering info. That ship sailed last day.

It's lynch mafia now, or lynch mafia tomorrow. It's time to decide the game.
But if we decide no lynch from the outset today, we do this all tomorrow with the only change being who mafia kills. And since there's no power roles left we can assume the mafia will kill the townies person.

Alternatively, we hunt today. We may find a consensus on a mafioso, in which case great. We may not, in which caee we're back at scenario 1 but with another day phase of hunting to look over. I just don't see the downside.
Why are you equating no lynch with no hunting?

For the same reason hunting on D1 while saying you aren't going to actually vote for anybody doesn't work. You've got to have the threat to made the words stick.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:52 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:38 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:29 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:22 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:19 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:39 pm I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.
Thing is, we are beyond the point of gathering info. That ship sailed last day.

It's lynch mafia now, or lynch mafia tomorrow. It's time to decide the game.
But if we decide no lynch from the outset today, we do this all tomorrow with the only change being who mafia kills. And since there's no power roles left we can assume the mafia will kill the townies person.

Alternatively, we hunt today. We may find a consensus on a mafioso, in which case great. We may not, in which caee we're back at scenario 1 but with another day phase of hunting to look over. I just don't see the downside.
Why are you equating no lynch with no hunting?
For the same reason hunting on D1 while saying you aren't going to actually vote for anybody doesn't work. You've got to have the threat to made the words stick.
Hunting is about more than threats?

You're still answering my questions, aren't you?

Yes, and it's really getting us places, isn't it?

Working now, but will make time this afternoon to do some ISOs and give reads and thoughts. I realize my seat has basically no content before me, and not a ton since then either.

I had moved Kyle into townie read status, but d3/n3 moves him back down. Don't like the "throw down a vote and come back hour before EOD" bit. Perhaps that's more common here?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:53 pm @Dragon D. Luffy okay I meant to elaborate on that before pressing send

My question is why adopt such a lax attitude
What lax attitude?

I picked a criterium for lynching and i'm using it.

I think that no lynch was the most anti-town event to happen in the entire game so I'm betting there is a baddie among those who did it.

And bob hasn't done much all game so I'm fine with this lynch.

I get what you're saying, but I also haven't been here all game, and I contributed just as much content last day phase as anybody else did. It's difficult to catch up on a 30-page thread full of people you don't know and offer good content when basically nobody else is posting.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:28 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:02 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 1:07 pm Kylemii - I'm not going to lay any blame here for being tricked into mathematical no-lynch. I was confused, stupid, inconsistent. I do recommend reading the context, though.
Kyle has been consistently earnest and also nearly consistently inconsistent on the wrong side of things. For example, this no-lynch. After the fact, he says that DDL and me are his biggest suspects. That makes zero sense with his actions. I suggested we change the lynch, but not go to DDL. Someone who suspected me would have ignored my suggestions and seen it as stronger evidence that I was 'saving' DDL (Though I could have just left things on Kyle). You don't follow the suggestion of one of your suspects to change your plans and also save your other suspect.
So like I said. Earnest, but making some very confusing choices that are contradictory and scum beneficial.
Got that one MP vote going for him too.
But that's wrong. I suspected you or DDL, not you and DDL.
Ah, that makes . . . slightly more sense.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:53 pm @Dragon D. Luffy okay I meant to elaborate on that before pressing send

My question is why adopt such a lax attitude
What lax attitude?

I picked a criterium for lynching and i'm using it.

I think that no lynch was the most anti-town event to happen in the entire game so I'm betting there is a baddie among those who did it.

And bob hasn't done much all game so I'm fine with this lynch.
Are you 'fine' with staking the entire game on it? If bob is town, it's game over.

Bob is town, fwiw.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:34 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:06 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:53 pm @Dragon D. Luffy okay I meant to elaborate on that before pressing send

My question is why adopt such a lax attitude
What lax attitude?

I picked a criterium for lynching and i'm using it.

I think that no lynch was the most anti-town event to happen in the entire game so I'm betting there is a baddie among those who did it.

And bob hasn't done much all game so I'm fine with this lynch.
I get what you're saying, but I also haven't been here all game, and I contributed just as much content last day phase as anybody else did. It's difficult to catch up on a 30-page thread full of people you don't know and offer good content when basically nobody else is posting.

Clarification: difficult both to create content and also difficult to motivate myself. If the people who have been here since d1 apparently aren't invested, why should I be?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 5:09 pm @colonialbob

Who is Speed's partner?

Sig or you. Just did a quick ISO of him, confirmed my gut that you two are his most likely partners but didn't really give me clarity on which. Feel like he defended DDL too much early to be teammates, and the only reason you over me is that I know I'm town.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:51 pm I think if Jack is mafia then he's put an incredible amount of work into not looking like it.

A mafia Jack would be able to at this point coast into a boring but easy win with minimal effort.

Eh Jack's a high-effort player, mot sure his activity level is alignment indicative. That said, his content has been good.

Changing vote to no lynch for self-preservation.

(And in changing I see we have 3 votes for no lynch now, but still just gonna be safe)

Welp.

I take a small amount of solace that my speedchuck read was good and my gut feel on Jack was good as well. Knew I'd never be able to substantiate that though, and as a new replacement under the gun myself it'd never fly.

Congrats you two! Sure would've been nice to have another townie around at EOD though.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:34 pm Even though I'm pretty sure I singlehandedly lost the game for everyone by being really bad at everything I enjoyed this game a lot and it was a pretty good reintroduction back into games.

Thank you Sloonei and Jay for hosting

Not singlehandedly, I helped quite a bit.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:24 pm well I guess I better put the "Oops! All Silencers!" themed mafia game I was planning in the fucking trash :/

The regular trash will be fine.

The Syndicate

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