The Syndicate

I take back everything I said about the game being unbalanced. Sly devils, making Lorab the queen of the tribes. Haha.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:44 pm Aha, now we *can* lynch speedchuck.

I mean, I would be doing the same if I were you, and it's totally fair, but you're wrong and .

[mention]Golden[/mention] Will previous threads be open for everyone to view? Can we quote from them?

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:51 pm Hi new faces! I brought the fishing gear and threw Speedchuck’s hat in the fire

What

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:53 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:45 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:44 pm Aha, now we *can* lynch speedchuck.

they took him off the poll fam

The work of refrigerator??

Well that makes me feel better about things. We thought you just couldn’t convince Bidoof of his guilt

fridge is a haiku dude. There's another dude who takes people off of polls.

At the time of this first post, I was assuming that scum were distributed somewhat evenly across both tribes. Ignore that. I was proven to be making incorrect assumptions. Still some good catch-up analysis in there.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:34 pm Initial tribes (assuming 2 scum of each faction starting in each tribe, which includes defectors and recruits):

Boomslang
DrWilgy
insertnamehere - innoculation from SVS's role
Jackofhearts2005 - dead, probably town (his first role forced people to vote one way, second refreshed one-shots)
Kylemii
LoRab
Marmot - Strexcorp
nijuukyugou (nutella's BTSC partner originally)
Scotty - insanifier, scummy first role
sig - first role is incompetent helper
Sloonei
Spacedaisy

colonialbob - Not evens
dharmahelper - haikudude, probably town role (haikus provide protection from lynches with a post restriction)
Dom - not evens, for sure
Dragon D Luffy - vote manip first role, saved by LC in favor of lynching nutella, role #32
Epignosis - kept defending towny players, has been playing passionately (not at all like his night vale performance)
Long Con - Evens
nutella - Evens (maybe recruit)
Quin - town (I have pinpointed his role, and math on a lynch proves him town based on LC's role)
Speedchuck - town (meeeeee)
sprityo - Town for first life (what kid of mafia role is cecil?)
S~V~S - approached her first role in a towny way

Side Note:
Evil Evens kill on Even days
Strexcorp on odd days

Look at marmot's activation of his role for indication of this.

I'm going to grab some lunch, but as you can see, a lot of Pikachu v1 has been figured out. I'm going to do some POE in that. If my calculations are correct, there is at least one Strex in Pikachu V1. Maybe, just maybe, another Strex, a strex recruit, or an Even (only if Nutella was a recruit. Odds of another even in pikachu are low IMO, even in that case.)

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:03 pm D1 - Quin - survived
N1 - niju (Strexkill)
D2 - speedchuck
N2 - Scotty (Evens)
D3 - nutella (changed from DDL)
N3 - JoH (Strexkill)
INH dies
D4 - Long Con
N4 - Evens blocked by Strex
D5 - Long Con
N5 - Sig (Strex)
D6 - Cbob
N6 - SVS (Evens)
D7 - Marmot

BUTTON

N7 - JoH (Strex)
Nutella dies
D8 - Marmot
N8 - Sprityo (Evens)

What can we learn from this?

1. If the game is actually randomized completely, it is likely that no Strex players were in Pikachu. Or, if not likely, this is at least an explanation for their kill.
2. There is still an Even in Pikachu. If it's someone who stayed, that someone is almost certainly Epignosis. But I don't think so. I think it more likely that the Cerberus Even moved over there.
3. Unless they are a recruit (like I think nutella was, personally), niju and Sig are not Strex. JoH wasn't either. (obvious, but I'm pointing it out anyway.)

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:05 pm Lastly, if there were NO strexcorp baddies in Pikachu (still an assumption), Dom is clear of suspicion (unless 3P).

Scotty was really driving for a lynch in Cerberus as LC was being lynched.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:50 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:41 pm Also forgot Scotty was an even kill, so he is unlikely to be LC's teammate.

So let's knock "evens" off for Scotty. He could be Strex.

But IF Strex was isolated in Cerberus, why would they want a lynch to happen over here? We saw what happened when the lynch happened. :P

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:05 pm I wouldn't take Epignosis' teammate's word at face value

I am going to flip town when I am lynched.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:34 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:28 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:34 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:29 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 5:21 pm Nope, no crazy pills. If there is a baddie faux flipper, there has to be a real flipper, and Chuck was the subject of much speculation. Flipping a baddie from the other team as good would hurt the Evens, not help them.

Joy, I expect to be Haikued tonight

So the bad flipper and the good flipper were both on the same tribe?

Maybe. It just doesn't make sense for Nutella to have used her one shot role that way at that time. They would have saved it when it could help them, not someone else. The way that was timed it was either someone who trusted or suspected Chuck and wanted it out in the open once and for all.

I don't buy Nutella using her one role power that way at that time, nope. Nutella is a tight player, she hangs onto her goods, she doesn't have that use it or lose it mentality some do. I do not buy it.

Nope.

But like when would she use it where it would be more helpful? Because as far as I’m concerned, it’s not the most useful role for mafia, is it? It’s like a reverse cop. But the cop is drunk and tells everyone and once the cop dies everyone knows what a detriment he was to the force.

Why would she, right after he helped save a baddie, and she had no inkling she would die soon, reveal him as a civ, rather than let the thread derail (and it would have) by people trying to lynch him?

It makes no sense. It is too easy of a conclusion to jump to, and if you read Pikachu, you KNOW how hot and heavy I was to lynch Chuck. If her role said she could have done it to a TEAMMATE I would be waving the pichfork harder and heavier than anyone else. But she couldn't, and I see no benefit to her using it on a baddie from another team randomly.

And besides, Nutella hoard her assets, she is not one to just use it or lose it. There is no strategic value for her in faux revealing Chuck unless she knew she was going to die.

If I was on the other scumteam, nutella would have THOUGHT that I'd flip scum.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 8:13 pm Wait, DH and Scotty think Epi and Chuck are teammates, and Epi voted for Marmot, who was lynched with only 4 votes? Which team do you think Epi and Chuck are on? Surely not LC's team, since Nutella could not flip a teammates reveal.

So DH and Scotty, you think Epi and Chuck are Marmots teammates?

This is the best point ever regarding me and Epi.

If I was targeted by nutella, I literally CANNOT be on LC's team.
It doesn't look like Epi is on Marmot's team, based on his activity.

[mention]DharmaHelper[/mention] You can lynch me tomorrow. I give you explicit permission, if it means that I get to avoid the snarky pursuit you and Dom put up in early game.

Current town-firm-ish people that I have on my radar:
DH
Dom
Quin

Pretty firm Townreads:
Sprit (first role was good, IDK if he switched alignment)
SVS

DH is refrigerator tho

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:44 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:40 pm DH is refrigerator tho

Is Refrigerator good?

And nobody ever explained how DH is that role either.

Refrigerator provides protection, at a cost. It could be good or bad, I guess, but I lean good. Mafia roles aren't usually half-assed if you're helping teammates with them. I'd believe doctor before refrigerator.

As for why:

Pikachu:
cbob - fak lynch D6 role
DDL - vote manip
DH - has not been haiku'd I think
Dom - not the guy taking me off the poll
Epi - has been haiku'd
LC - dead mafia
nut - dead mafia
Quin - probably the guy taking me off the poll
speedchuck
sprit - cecil
SVS - plague

Haiku is still alive. The haikus did not follow us into Cerberus when the button was pressed. Of the unknowns (Dom, Epi, DH, Quin), Dom and Quin came with us to pikachu. Haikudude (DH or Epi) stayed.

Granted, you could have haiku'd yourself, unless I've forgotten or am missing something. And I know you can't confess to that. Heck, it might make sense as you protecting yourself.

...

Okay, so haiku is either Epi or DH. I forget why I had it as DH for sure.

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 1:01 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:53 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:44 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:40 pm DH is refrigerator tho

Is Refrigerator good?

And nobody ever explained how DH is that role either.

Refrigerator provides protection, at a cost. It could be good or bad, I guess, but I lean good. Mafia roles aren't usually half-assed if you're helping teammates with them. I'd believe doctor before refrigerator.

As for why:

Pikachu:
cbob - fak lynch D6 role
DDL - vote manip
DH - has not been haiku'd I think
Dom - not the guy taking me off the poll
Epi - has been haiku'd
LC - dead mafia
nut - dead mafia
Quin - probably the guy taking me off the poll
speedchuck
sprit - cecil
SVS - plague

Haiku is still alive. The haikus did not follow us into Cerberus when the button was pressed. Of the unknowns (Dom, Epi, DH, Quin), Dom and Quin came with us to pikachu. Haikudude (DH or Epi) stayed.

Granted, you could have haiku'd yourself, unless I've forgotten or am missing something. And I know you can't confess to that. Heck, it might make sense as you protecting yourself.

...

Okay, so haiku is either Epi or DH. I forget why I had it as DH for sure.

pretty sure its dom

Then why did he stop haikuing when he came to cerberus?

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:26 am I just finished reading the remaining 5 pages after Pikachu joined our old tribe. Holy hell, SVS. You really think I’m bad and holy hell, speed. After the nutella reveal, you really kicked it into high gear. Like, he’s been saying some pretty helpful stuff if you do go back and read the last 3 pages of Bidoof. A large part of me wants to assume you want to remain in the civ limelight, backed by your cheerleaders SVS and Quin, but remain a hamster in a pig pen.

I am town.

I don't object to being lynched, but I want to make sense of the game before I do, so that I can be helpful post-mortem. That's all.

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:56 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:35 am

Scotty wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:26 am I just finished reading the remaining 5 pages after Pikachu joined our old tribe. Holy hell, SVS. You really think I’m bad and holy hell, speed. After the nutella reveal, you really kicked it into high gear. Like, he’s been saying some pretty helpful stuff if you do go back and read the last 3 pages of Bidoof. A large part of me wants to assume you want to remain in the civ limelight, backed by your cheerleaders SVS and Quin, but remain a hamster in a pig pen.

I am town.

I don't object to being lynched, but I want to make sense of the game before I do, so that I can be helpful post-mortem. That's all.

I appreciate your willingness to do the right thing.

Marmot also was wholly willing to get himself lynched for the good of the game.

Scum marmot always self-votes.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:32 pm Hey did you guys come to the conclusion in the Cerberus thread that Cbob was town during the past couple days?

nnnnnno.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:38 pm

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:32 pm Hey did you guys come to the conclusion in the Cerberus thread that Cbob was town during the past couple days?

nnnnnno.

Let me elaborate.

Cbob hasn't been around, hasn't done that much. I imagine he's spending much of his time on the Fire Emblem endgame.

So I haven't been pursuing him super hard either.

sprityo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 3:40 pm So all discussion about the alignment of his Charlie pace role just disappeared?

I mean inherently I wouldn’t find it a town role, but then again. I have a role that would look god awful if it was my first flip too.

Linki: fair enough but excuses don’t last forever

It didn't disappear, but it didn't really progress. Cerberus tribe in general didn't progress, though. Go look at it. It felt like SVS and I were just casually talking half the time.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:50 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:43 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:40 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:33 pm What makes you think I've dropped my suspicion of Epignosis?

You haven't mentioned him since last night and you haven't voted for him. If you are so sure about him and Chuck, and you can't vote for Chuck why aren't you voting for Epi? You would think that would help to prove your point on Chuck.

I mentioned him as early as last night, and you think I've dropped him as a suspect?

I'm not voting for him because theres no way anyone will fuck with that vote. Nobody will support an Epi vote. Much as I suspect the guy I'm not gonna take a shot at him that isn't a kill shot.

At this point I'm almost wishing speedchuck gets lynched and shows up good so you'll get off my ass.

I can help with that.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:41 pm If I understand your theory about nutella, S~V~S- that nutella didn't know she would die and would be holding on to her ability- I would argue that, from my perspective at least, nutella did not look engaged since LC went down. Might she have figured that she was likely to be lynched sooner rather than later? Wouldn't she have targeted speedchuck, who was unlikely to be lynched, hoping that the hosts would "confirm" his affiliation? If that was the case, then couldn't her shot have backfired for her in "clearing" a mafia speedchuck?

Can I emphasize something?

The above case is the only way that I am scum.
It doesn't make sense for nutella to implicate me like this, and it doesn't make sense for me to try so hard to save LC as his teammate. I was mathematically near-confirmed town with my first role, and I freaking hold to that. If you think I'm scum with LC and Nutella, then that's your problem, not a problem with the setup. You are bad at mafia.

So let's assume for a second that I am on Strex, and that nutella was trying to condemn me and accidentally hit a scum. That's the theory.
First of all, lol. This totally ruins my theory of Strex only being in Cerberus (to explain the nightkills). On top of that, I would have caught LC's slip originally, and believed it. Scumchuck would be a scumhunter too, in this game. ON TOP OF ALL THAT, I'd have freaking killed Dom and DH already for their sarcastic pursuit of me, if I could convince my team. It doesn't make sense for me to be Strex.

Sorry, got sidetracked. Real point following.

Assume that I, speedchuck, am Strexcorp. Do you think that BOTH LC and Nutella would target me with their alignment flip roles? LC before his death, and then nutella later?
Why?
I certainly can't think of a reason.

All this to say: When I flip town tomorrow night, freaking believe it. Use it. Thanks.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:56 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 5:35 pm

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 4:41 pm If I understand your theory about nutella, S~V~S- that nutella didn't know she would die and would be holding on to her ability- I would argue that, from my perspective at least, nutella did not look engaged since LC went down. Might she have figured that she was likely to be lynched sooner rather than later? Wouldn't she have targeted speedchuck, who was unlikely to be lynched, hoping that the hosts would "confirm" his affiliation? If that was the case, then couldn't her shot have backfired for her in "clearing" a mafia speedchuck?

Can I emphasize something?

The above case is the only way that I am scum.
It doesn't make sense for nutella to implicate me like this, and it doesn't make sense for me to try so hard to save LC as his teammate. I was mathematically near-confirmed town with my first role, and I freaking hold to that. If you think I'm scum with LC and Nutella, then that's your problem, not a problem with the setup. You are bad at mafia.

So let's assume for a second that I am on Strex, and that nutella was trying to condemn me and accidentally hit a scum. That's the theory.
First of all, lol. This totally ruins my theory of Strex only being in Cerberus (to explain the nightkills). On top of that, I would have caught LC's slip originally, and believed it. Scumchuck would be a scumhunter too, in this game. ON TOP OF ALL THAT, I'd have freaking killed Dom and DH already for their sarcastic pursuit of me, if I could convince my team. It doesn't make sense for me to be Strex.

Sorry, got sidetracked. Real point following.

Assume that I, speedchuck, am Strexcorp. Do you think that BOTH LC and Nutella would target me with their alignment flip roles? LC before his death, and then nutella later?
Why?
I certainly can't think of a reason.

All this to say: When I flip town tomorrow night, freaking believe it. Use it. Thanks.

I'm bad at Mafia?

The entire purpose of that post is to challenge S~V~S's perspective about nutella for the purpose of gaining clarity. I certainly do not think you are bad with LC and nutella, because nutella could not use her ability on you. My intention is to eliminate what possibilities I can reasonably eliminate and sort out what I think happened from what is left.

Nonono, I was springboarding off of your post! My post was directed at a strawman, not you.
And it says they are bad at mafia IF they think I'm scum with LC and nutella.
Which admittedly isn't nice, but I'm not calling you out.

Also lol, forgot about nutella being unable to target me. Yeah. Forget that part of the post.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:08 pm Oh good thing I checked, I thought the poll ended TONIGHT! I did not realize the poll was completely restarted and ends tomorrow.

Linki @ Epi, I still think Chuck might be bad with Nutella, and I am OK at Mafia I also think the reveal in the thread is the one he will flip as, becasue I don't think Nutella targeted him. I think it possible LC targeted him, and LC alone. I was hoping to have more time to explore this possibility (I was in the middle of starting this when Nutella flipped and all opportunistic illogical hell broke loose) but of course that isn't going to happen now. And I could be wrong, and there is no way of knowing it until games end. It's why I asked the hosts if we would be told if a team is eliminated and they said, not surprisingly, no. But I still have major issues getting over how aggressively he defended LC.

Chuck is a charming and lovely adversary and I would Mafia with him all day long. But at this point, I still view him as an adversary. I guess I should be pleased about all of this, lynching someone I think is likely bad is lynching someone who is likely bad. But I think we will learn nothing, and probably create opportunities for his Cerberus teammates to get cred and skate. But I dislike lynching someone for the wrong reason, and I firmly believe this is the wrong reason.

I know I am a Cassandra shouting in the wilderness, but meh. I'm used to it.

Linki @ Daisy, Thank You

On the one hand, I'm charming and lovely. I'm glad you aren't one of those people that are like "I'm not signing up for a game with speedchuck again!"
On the other, I thought we had gotten past this.

Don't you ruin my flip. Roles do exactly as they say. I learned that in Buffy mafia. Long Con's role could not have revealed me in thread.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:50 pm Thanks SVS.

She has a point. While I can't reveal any busswork, look and evaluate the reasoning behind those that vote me. I'm sure some will be less natural than the others.

I didn't have any, but I'm getting lynched tomorrow anyways.

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:29 pm If the effects of my role could last after I died, the effects of LCs role could, too. So no way of proving it until endgame. I think LC made you look civ. Some hapless civvie revealed the role you would flip as, which helped you, and Nutellas death threw a wrench in everyones works. I had planned to poke you and prod you and watch you and wait for your mistake, but that won't happen now.

It's an improbable tale, but it's what I believe

It's super improbable. It actually doesn't have any reason behind it.

You're assuming that a true civilian flipper is out there. You're assuming that a townie has a role that specifically "shows what I'll flip like when I die" instead of revealing my role, which is completely bogus and is not a role that should exist. And you're assuming LC targeted me, with no evidence.

You, the same person that got onto me for assuming Quin was town with direct evidence.
You, the person that got onto DDL and Sig for connecting my flip to Nutella's role.

Do you just hate Occam?

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:07 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:58 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:29 pm If the effects of my role could last after I died, the effects of LCs role could, too. So no way of proving it until endgame. I think LC made you look civ. Some hapless civvie revealed the role you would flip as, which helped you, and Nutellas death threw a wrench in everyones works. I had planned to poke you and prod you and watch you and wait for your mistake, but that won't happen now.

It's an improbable tale, but it's what I believe

It's super improbable. It actually doesn't have any reason behind it.

You're assuming that a true civilian flipper is out there. You're assuming that a townie has a role that specifically "shows what I'll flip like when I die" instead of revealing my role, which is completely bogus and is not a role that should exist. And you're assuming LC targeted me, with no evidence.

You, the same person that got onto me for assuming Quin was town with direct evidence.
You, the person that got onto DDL and Sig for connecting my flip to Nutella's role.

Do you just hate Occam?

No, but if we were going Occam then Nutellas flip would make you bad

IT DOES MAKE ME LOOK BAD!

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:48 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:40 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:07 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 6:58 pm Do you just hate Occam?

No, but if we were going Occam then Nutellas flip would make you bad

IT DOES MAKE ME LOOK BAD!

See that's where Occams Razor gets you!

I know, but it's more logical then what you are suggesting. I am a firm believer in logic. That's why I don't blame people for wanting to lynch me.

I'd do the same in their position. And even when I flip town and not scum, I will not discourage people following Occam and his logic.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 9:39 pm Speedchuck dies. End of story.

Thanks. Now people can talk about other things.

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:55 pm Dom -

I think it's odd that Cecil survived about 8 days or so in Pikachu untouched after I deduced who he was, and then the moment new blood came into the thread and saw that sprit was Cecil, Cecil was killed.

I believe someone who was originally Cerberus but moved to Pikachu killed him because they had a different idea of what Cecil could do or accomplish, or a different view of gossip roles.

Short version - seems too much a coincidence that Cecil dies right after the merge. I don't believe in coincidences like that.

Mafia teams can communicate.

I too think there are no Strex in Pika V1, which aligns with this theory. It also incidentally clears me.

[VOTE: INH] aubergine

I'll add some weight to that.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:01 pm

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:07 pm "Wilgy isn't bad but I'm going to lynch him anyway"

Nah. That doesn't fly.

[VOTE: INH] aubergine

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:09 pm [VOTE: INH] aubergine

I'll add some weight to that.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:21 pm

Well, fuck all y'all.

Care to make points against me, or is knee-jerk bullshit how things worked over at Pikachu?

Didn't you hear? I'm evil now. I don't have to justify my actions.

No, but seriously. I agreed with Cbob's knee-jerk analysis, and since everyone was voting Wilgy, I figured I'd throw a vote on you to give people something to talk about. I doubt you'll get lynched today, but talking about you is more productive than lynching Wilgy for no reason or complaining about how speed can't be lynched.

QUERY: DOES ANYONE THINK THAT PIKACHU TRIBE WAS DEVOID OF STREXCORP SCUM?

Supporting info: The lopsided nightkill record, and sprit being killed right after the button press.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:09 pm Why is Cbob's nonsensical analysis valid? Why is my Wilgy vote bad?

Use your words, people.

They call it CYA or something. Voting for someone while simultaneously predicting that they are town. It's regarded as 'playing it safe'. I think that's what you're being accused of.

Still, this is from the 'Practical Guide to Scumhunting' and may not be applicable in this case. I don't really believe in uniform mafia tells. But I am interested in seeing how people react under pressure.

insertnamehere wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:19 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:12 pm They call it CYA or something. Voting for someone while simultaneously predicting that they are town. It's regarded as 'playing it safe'. I think that's what you're being accused of.

Still, this is from the 'Practical Guide to Scumhunting' and may not be applicable in this case. I don't really believe in uniform mafia tells. But I am interested in seeing how people react under pressure.

Oh good, "easy tells" that ignore context and nuance in favor of laziness.

For the record, when people submit bullshit cases against me for reasons of "pressure," I get angry, regardless of alignment. It makes me not want to bother with playing traditional mafia games.

As for your first paragraph, that's what I said. I don't believe in them either.

As for your second, . Sorry you're angry. I don't want you to be angry. But this is how I play the game. Day has been decided, as you put it. Discussion is bleh. You come in and jump on the day end vote for Wilgy.

Cbob then jumps on you.

I think that's noteworthy, whether it implicates you or Cbob, and I placed my vote where it would trigger discussion.

As I said, I don't wish to anger you. I'm just doing things and seeing what comes out of it.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 7:38 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 5:09 pm QUERY: DOES ANYONE THINK THAT PIKACHU TRIBE WAS DEVOID OF STREXCORP SCUM?

Supporting info: The lopsided nightkill record, and sprit being killed right after the button press.

We didn't have a nightkill until Day 6. I think it's possible that it happened because we only had one mafia team to plot against us.

Thanks. I want more people to answer this.

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:36 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:13 am

Dom wrote: ↑Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:03 am SVS-- you aren't defending speedchuck like DH didn't defend LC.

Did you read the post? Actually read it? I THINK SPEEDCHUCK IS BAD. I just think Nutella has nothing to do with it and he's gonna flip civ. I would have preferred to watch him for a while.

So no, I am not not defending him like DH didn't defend LC. Geez.

I am confused then. Please explain it to me like I'm five.

SVS's theory is the following:

Nutella had nothing to do with the reveal.
Long Con's role, which makes a player flip as the wrong alignment ON DEATH, was the culprit.
SVS thinks that an unknown townie role that preemptively shows the DEATH FLIP targeted me.

In short, Long Con + Convoluted Civ reveal role = Speedchuck being an Evil Even.

So SVS thinks that I will flip town, even though I'm scum with nutella, and that nutella's role has nothing to do with it.

...

So you have every right to be confused. SVS cannot accept that I'm Strexcorp, considering my defense of LC. She cannot accept that I'm town, because SVS sticks to her guns unless the mafia team recruits her and I'm not on it (Buffy Mafia). So she has found a (completely implausible) way that I could be LC's teammate, even though Nutella CANNOT target teammates.

Last time I'll ask this question before I start spamming the thread.

Does anyone think it likely that Strexcorp was NOT PRESENT in Pikachu v1, given the consistent kills in Cerberus and the quick kill of Sprit once the tribes shifted? Does ANYONE think that to be likely?

Because if we think that is likely, then we can make some 'likely' inferences from that world.

Don't make me @ everyone individually. I will do it. (Except for Epi, I will not @ him.)

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:10 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:13 am Last time I'll ask this question before I start spamming the thread.

Does anyone think it likely that Strexcorp was NOT PRESENT in Pikachu v1, given the consistent kills in Cerberus and the quick kill of Sprit once the tribes shifted? Does ANYONE think that to be likely?

Because if we think that is likely, then we can make some 'likely' inferences from that world.

Don't make me @ everyone individually. I will do it. (Except for Epi, I will not @ him.)

possible. "Likely" is a little strong. The kill focus on Cerberus was being propagated by both teams for the first 6 or 7 nights, and we know at least two Evens were in Pikachu, so I don't see why this would have to be the case.

You got a chance to participate in both threads. Is there anyone who you think would be a likely teammate with any of the dead baddies?

"The kill focus on Cerberus was being propagated by both teams for the first 6 or 7 nights"

The Evens only had ONE kill in Cerberus during that timeframe. Strex used all THREE in Cerberus during that timeframe. And then, as SOON as they moved tribes, Sprit (who had basically been a townfirm since D2) died by their hand immediately.

I'm theorizing. I'll figure out likely teammates in a bit if I can.

Deduced it based on Marmot roleblocking the nightkill, the name of evil evens, and the single nightkill per night.
It's not confirmed, but it is 99% likely.

I think it's because Wilgy targeted Marmot with a malicious role?

Cerberus V1:
Boomslang
DrWilgy - targeted Marmot with pseudo-killing role? Not Strex?
insertnamehere
JackofHearts - killed by Strex twice, probably town
Kylemii
LoRab - Button that switched tribes.
Marmot - Strex
nijuukyugou - killed night 1 by Strex, nutella's BTSC partner
Scotty - has been nightkilled once
sig
Sloonei - selected to spy on other tribe
Spacedaisy
-------(At least one Even present in Cerberus)-------

Pikachu V1:
colonialbob - First role was a trap. Evens sprung that trap. Likely not an Even.
dharmahelper - Candidate for haiku.
Dom - Called out LC's slip. Not an Even. Candidate for haiku.
Dragon D Luffy - Accidentally died, then rezzed with 2 lives in second role. LC was the reason for the rez. But that also killed nutella.
Epignosis - Has been trying to clear town. Candidate for haiku?
Long Con - Even
Nutella - Even
Quin - still townfirmed
Speedchuck - mathematically confirmed town with first role. Implicated by nutella flip, which cannot target a teammate. Still town tho.
sprityo - First role was Cecil, town? announcer
S~V~S - First role was a trap that SVS tried her best not to spring. Towny behavior.
-------(No evidence of Strexcorp presence)-------

Cerberus V2:
Boomslang
ColonialBob - First role was a trap. Evens sprung that trap. Likely not an Even.
Dom - Called out LC's slip. Not an Even. Candidate for haiku.
Dragon D. Luffy - Accidentally died, then rezzed with 2 lives in second role. LC was the reason for the rez. But that also killed nutella.
insertnamehere
LoRab - Button that switched tribes.
Nijuukyugou - killed night 1, nutella's BTSC partner
Quin - still townfirmed
sig
S~V~S - First role was a trap that SVS tried her best not to spring. Towny behavior. Killed by Evens.
Speedchuck - mathematically confirmed town with first role. Implicated by nutella flip, which cannot target a teammate. Still town tho.

Pikachu V2:
dharmahelper - Candidate for haiku.
DrWilgy - targeted Marmot with pseudo-killing role? Not Strex?
Epignosis - Has been trying to clear town. Candidate for haiku?
Kylemii
Marmot - Strex
nutella - Even
Scotty - has been nightkilled once, by the evens
Sloonei - selected to spy on other tribe in v1
Spacedaisy
sprityo - First role was Cecil, town? announcer

Players that moved from Pikachu to Cerberus: cbob, dom, ddl, quin, svs, speedchuck
Players that moved from Cerberus to Pikachu: Wilgy, Kyle, Marmot, Scotty, Sloonei, Daisy

DEATHS:
D1 - Quin - survived
N1 - niju (Strexkill)
D2 - speedchuck
N2 - Scotty (Evens)
D3 - nutella (changed from DDL)
N3 - JoH (Strexkill)
INH dies
D4 - Long Con
N4 - Evens blocked by Strex
D5 - Long Con
N5 - Sig (Strex)
D6 - Cbob
N6 - SVS (Evens)
D7 - Marmot

BUTTON

N7 - JoH (Strex)
Nutella dies
D8 - Marmot
N8 - Sprityo (Evens)
LoRab Dies
MERGE
D9 - Wilgy

I've got this thing copied, and I'm making notes as I go. Is it missing anything?

Does anyone want to analyse why Strexcorp wanted JackofHearts dead so badly?

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:53 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:47 pm Does anyone want to analyse why Strexcorp wanted JackofHearts dead so badly?

Well, jack was pretty consensus town in our tribe. Plus, they killed him on N5 and they technically wouldn’t be able to kill him on N7, so it makes sense I guess.

Which mkes me wonder why they’re letting nijuu live

They did not kill him N5. I have a chart above.

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:23 pm I don’t know what I did wrong in quoting that post, no matter what I do to try and re-edit it.


Oh well, just a hunk of unsalvagable drivel anyway

What happened was that you tried to separate all of those quotes, when they all belonged to the same person. You can't just add ending vote tages for no reason.

Golden wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:37 pm DrWilgy's number is 666.

Number of the Beast

I'm town. I'm willing to engage anyone on theorycrafting, scumhunting, and trying to figure me out, so long as their posts don't consist of snark and sarcasm.

If I am to die today, decide SOON, so that we can spend the rest of the day hunting and get some POE spec done. I'm good at that, and I can leave you guys with good footing.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:34 pm How are you feeling on that Strexcorp theory?

Epignosis wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 8:08 pm

DharmaHelper wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 7:47 pm

S~V~S wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 6:55 pm This is feeling mean
I will be back to vote and
complete my ten posts

Second of all fuck whoever keeps doing this to SVS

I don't see why this is an issue. Post in haikus and don't get lynched. Good deal if you ask me.

SVS likes posting long posts with lots of thoughts, and has expressed frustration with this role before. Makes me think Refrigerator may be bad. Who is it down to by PoE? Dom & Quin?

I'm feeling even better about Strex not existing in Pikachu. Epi, you, and Dom are the only plausible options for it.

She could just, not post in haiku. I don't think she'll be lynched today anyway.

Dom and Quin, yeah. Maybe Epi. But Quin is confirmed town by math, especially with no other vote manipulators flipping from Pika v1.
Also refrigerator is probably town.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:39 pm

Scotty wrote: ↑Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:31 pm @Sloonei I also believe speed looks very townie atm.

It’s what I would do if I wanted the town to trust me when all signs proverbially pointed to me being bad. I’d want to pick it up a notch and put forth my best effort.

He could be town, and in that case I’m super sorry that things are panning out this way.

If he’s good and we lynch him, the best thing he can do in any situation is leave us a legacy, like my uncle.

speedchuck is one of the best fakers i've ever played with. For what it is worth

I appreciate the compliment. I won't even be mad if my unreadableness gets me lynched.

I could go for wilgy today. You guys know what my role is, and given how much effect it's had so far, I don't think I should be considered an urgent lynch. And I'm kinda hoping that the nightkill magically reveals whatever role targeted me.

But that's not likely.

Should you lynch me? I'd lynch me. If I saw nutella's flip right after a guy was 'confirmed town', especially 'confirmed town with malicious role', I'd sit my butt right on it. I wouldn't blame anyone for doing that. If anything, given my inevitable lynch, the scum in this game should be the ones more hesitant about supporting it, not knowing what I'll flip as.

I'll flip town.

But I'm not complaining about the lynch.

linki: bleh I think INH seems genuine. His vote on Wilgy was of the townie mindset that he don't care what people think, he doin what he do. His indignant response to the tiny vote train rang true. I'll not be looking there today.

Scotty wrote: ↑Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:26 am

speedchuck wrote:I could go for wilgy today. You guys know what my role is, and given how much effect it's had so far, I don't think I should be considered an urgent lynch. And I'm kinda hoping that the nightkill magically reveals whatever role targeted me.

I must have missed something. I don’t know what role you are or what you are referencing.

I was publicly role-revealed. That's why people want to lynch me. I was revealed as a town role back in the tribes, and then nutella flipped.

I'm on my phone.

svs why is it scummy for me to hope that I get cleared by a night flip? I don't understand.

please make sure everyone at least UNDERSTANDS why I am up for lynch. I see some confused votes, and that is kinda ridiculous.

for me to be scum, I have to be strex. which means strex was in pika v1. it also means mutella randomly happened to target me, hoping to frame me. it also means that I was recruited, as I have been mathematically proven as town in my first role (especially now, since basically all of the Pika roles have been revealed.)

I can can elaborate more when I get home this afternoon, but occams razor isnt giving me a clean shave. you have to make assumptions for me to be scum, too.