The Syndicate

Ok I'm generally feeling good but Dunya's posts but I'm pinged that she came and started buddying me on my suspicion of MP and repeating the same arguments as me without actually voting for MP herself. Reeks of bandwagoning.

Also kind of agree with Daisy on dunya apologizing for MP vote. Same point I made about chuck.

Dunya I see you said you read me as scum. But early on Day 1 you said I was a civ. What caused the change? Just the Wilgy vote?

Ok I'm still not feeling great about this but between the options who already have a vote I think she's the best one. Also I have a headache right now so I don't want to ISO more people, sorry.

votes dunya

MovingPictures07 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 6:54 pm Baddies are probably dunya, LC, and Daisy, I guess? I wish I had more time to play this cycle. Sorry to let you all down.

Bro you just defended your dissertation thingy. You are a winner. If you can't do other things because of that, it's fine. Relax, and rest, so you can come and play another day.

sig wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:31 pm Nice job! I knew my original paranoia was right. :P

I think this clears quite a few players and I think this sets up tomorrow's kybxh very nicely. I'd think quin due to mp refusing to lynch vote him and vice versa, this also pretty much clears LC and daisy into

It could make sense if we consider we now know MP's ISO on Quin was staged. Maybe he wanted to look like he was suspecting Quin before jumping on someone else, as he did (went went to an OMGUS on me very fast).

Tho maybe he also wanted to make the vote look more natural as I theorized at the time.

First paragraph means Quin is bad, second one means hes civ, in case it isn't obvious.

Right now I'm leaning on you being bad, mainly because how you both were taking your sweet time to vote for each other.

However...

After I l started the Wilgy wagon you had zero votes, so maybe I'm being unfair to you since you didnt need a survival vote.

Quin wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:45 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:44 pm Right now I'm leaning on you being bad, mainly because how you both were taking your sweet time to vote for each other.
What scared you about that on Day 1?

You mean what made me vote wilgy?

I was thinking if one of you were bad they'd be more eager to save their skin instead of dinding the truth.

But I wasn't considering the scenario where you were both bad at the time.

i'm just posting my thoughts as they come.

Thing is, I've been playing 3 games at once the past few days and this one is #3 in order of priority, due to first come first serve.

So I have very little idea what's going on. It's just not in my mind.

Oh Monday and Tuesday will also be mega busy to me so apology if I fail to catch up and vote. I'll be back on Day 4.

I'm here but I'm mega tired after traveling 800 km in two days.

I'll refrain from voting unless I need to vote to avoid being lynched. I don't trust my head to make hard decisions now.

Actually you know what, I was suspecting Quin after the lynch and I see people wanna lynch him so I'll just sheep on that.

Later.

I'm here, still alive. Imma catch up now.

I just gotta say, Speed looks good to me because he is having me as his top civ read despite my craptastic vote tracking. I feel like if he was bad he would be slowly preparing to lynch me or something like that.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:15 pm I think we should do another GTH reading thing next time we have enough people around

Did we even use the last GTH for anything? Serious question.

And this is not just salt because I posted my GTH reads and got royally ignored by all the people who asked for them (though it also is). It's also my observation that the one starting the GTH exercise was MP. Is it an actual attempt at catching baddies or is it just smokescreen?

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:56 pm (I get the impression he's a 11-20 year old given he's DDL's kid, right?)

wat

dunya wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:30 pm wait what. Kyle is DDL's son in rl?

Whrere in nine hells this this come from?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:04 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:54 pm Yarrrr. Be the town watcher one who finds out who targets their target?
That's how it works, yeah. Welcome to game!

Looks like we're in column C roles. We got a watcher and doctor folks. That makes D1 make sense. And it means we still have an edge.

RIP Dunya

It could also be line 3. With the jailkeeper.

I'm insulted that people think I could have a 20yo son.

I'm only 26 godanmit.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:18 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:14 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:04 pm
colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:54 pm Yarrrr. Be the town watcher one who finds out who targets their target?
That's how it works, yeah. Welcome to game!

Looks like we're in column C roles. We got a watcher and doctor folks. That makes D1 make sense. And it means we still have an edge.

RIP Dunya
It could also be line 3. With the jailkeeper.
I'm not super familiar with the jailkeeper, but I was thinking it was a doctor thanks to the no-death on N1? Could jailkeeper do that?

Jailkeeper is a doctor who also roleblocks the person they are protecting.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:03 pm DDL, can I get your current reads on speedchuck and Sig?

Sig can I get your current reads on speedchuck and DDL?

Speedchuck can I get your current reads on DDL and Sig?

Speed looks town to be for reasons said before. Though I didn't like his d1 vote very much. But his d2 vote is nice.

I don't have a big read on Sig. I was suspecting him for the cop thing early, then backpaddaled as I decided it fit his meta, and now I kind of forgot what i'm thinking of him (this applies to most players tbh). His vote tracking looks kind of bad tho so I could vote for him.

Right now I think I'll vote for you. I like dunya's points about you.

I'm sorry guys my activity in this game has been horrible but that's what I get for wanting to be active in two sites at once. I need to go back to my old alternating style.

Honestly considering I'm reading everyone more or less civ I bet at least one of the replacements is a baddie.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:38 pm

(one less number will put us at Lylo rather than Mylo if we no lynch and continue as normal)

Eh... no?

We have 7 players left. If someone dies this night we are left at six. So we just wasted a lynch. Now we have to lynch the two baddies left in the two remaining days.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:32 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 10:24 am
speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:38 pm

(one less number will put us at Lylo rather than Mylo if we no lynch and continue as normal)
Eh... no?

We have 7 players left. If someone dies this night we are left at six. So we just wasted a lynch. Now we have to lynch the two baddies left in the two remaining days.
If we had lynched town yesterday:
Night 4: 4 town, 2 mafia
Day 5: 3 town, 2 mafia - LyLo
Night 5: 3 town, 1 mafia
Day 6: 2 town, 1 mafia - LyLo

Going no lynch:
Night 4: 5 town, 2 mafia
Day 5: 4 town, 2 mafia - MyLo
Night 5 (no lynch): 4 town, 2 mafia
Day 6: 3 town, 2 mafia - LyLo, same as Day 5 above

or

Night 5: 4 town, 1 mafia
Day 6: 3 town, 1 mafia - MyLo

That all checks out, right?

It does.

And it proves what we did was the worst move. Because not only we missed a chance to take down mafia, but now we have to get it right with 6 players left, as opposed to 5.

Unless we no lynch again tomorrow, which has now become the most optimal move again, unless the doctor/jailkeeper does his work.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2017 3:10 pm @Dragon D. Luffy

Lots of recent suspicion has been thrown on you. However, I like your day one (at least the section I've read today) quite a lot.

Can you tell me where your head is at?

I've lost focus on this game in like Day 2 and now I'm barely keeping up with it.

I'm gonna try to ISO everyone today to see if I can get a grasp of this game again.

How did we come to the point where we no-lynched twice?

That's two extra kills we gave to the mafia.

What the hell, guys?

If there isn't at least one baddie who voted no lynch last day I'm banging my head on my keyboard.

For easy reference:

Votes per player:

DDL:
1- Wilgy
2- Dunya
3- Quin
4- Kylemii

Sig:
1- Quin
2- DDL
3- Quin
4- Kylemii

Speedchuck:
1- Wilgy
2- MP
3- abstain
4- No Lynch

Kelymii:
1- MP
2- MP
3- Quin
4- No Lynch

Jack:
3- Jack
4- abstain

Bob:
4- No Lynch

We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:36 am
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:29 am We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.
Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).

You don't know if Kyle is a townie or not. Unless you're bad.

And lynching a townie would have been better than what we did now (no lynch twice and basically hand free kills to the mafia). At least we had a slight chance of hitting mafia if Kyle was mafia.

Now we don't know if him, me or anyone else is mafia. And we are heading to lylo having to lynch right twice in a row.

Also, we should look at Daisy's posts for any hints on who she protected day 1. Basically whoever is her #1 civ read from day 2 onwards is probably confirmed civ.

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:15 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.
Really love this sentiment. 3-4 people who weren't around at the end of the lynch phase and also not there during a lot of the discussion period come by to criticize the choice that was made during it.

Yes I do.

This is mafia. Criticizing other people's choices is what this game is about.

You can criticize my own moves all you want. Vote for me for them, either. But you are not taking my right of criticizing yours.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:17 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.
No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

Yes, I blame myself for not being here during the last 2 hours to smack everyone in the face for failing at this game on such a fundemental level.

Though I'd be lying if I had said it came to my head "I need to stay at home or they might No Lynch"

But that doesn't mean I can't point my finger at you and figure out which one of you guys is the baddie who was going along as the civs shot themselves in their feet.

Alright, Speedchuck, you're next.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:38 pm I'm on no-lynch.

Discussion is crap, protection role is alive, current numbers say we'll gain an extra day (one less number will put us at Lylo rather than Mylo if we no lynch and continue as normal). Math checks out. Logic checks out. Kylemii is giving me good feels.

Anybody around and up for it?

This is the post where you argue about voting No Lynch.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:45 pm 1 little, 2 little, 3 little MP posts
4 little, 5 little, 6 little MP posts

Actually, a no lynch gives town some time to get free info if there is an info role. Quick math:

No lynch:
D1: 10 players
D2: 9 Players
D3: 7 Players
D4: 5 Players
D5: 3 Players (LYLO if 1 scum)
D6: Scum overrun if we get here and game isn't over.

Lynch on D1:
D1: 10 Players
D2: 8 Players
D3: 6 Players
D4: 4 Players (MYLO if one scum)
D5: 2 Players Scum overrun if we get here and game isn't over.

So in each case, ignoring D1 on the no-lynch side, town gets the same number of days to try and lynch the scummers. No matter how many scum there are. For every scum, take off a day's worth o' time. See how it works? An' the No Lynch D1 gives townies more info on their allotted lynch days.

HOWEVER!

This only works perfect if'n we got no doctors, vigs, or scumblockers. So I'm more inclined to lynch a scallywag on the bright and early day.
Long Con, what say ye ta that?

Shiver me timbers if'n I ain't about to throw a vote on me swabbie Dunya, fer the brine'd do 'im good I reckon!

linki: I am a cat. I swat at people until they respond, and then run away.
I kid. I have no idea what my gameplay style is. I've been told it's analytical, with a lot of chewing over motive and vote placement.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:57 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:54 pm Because the only thing that happens is that you give mafia an extra night kill, and then you are back next day with no extra information and one less civ alive.

It may give the cop an extra investigation yes, but the cop shouldn't reveal right away anyway so day 2 usually doesn't have anything new, and the cop could die before they reveal so the risk may be not worth it.
+1 to this analysis.

You don't lose a whole lot by D1 no-lynch, since the extra night kill just puts you at Lylo instead of Mylo. But the trade-off doesn't net you anything either, so you might as well keep that extra number advantage in your wheelhouse for later.

Who knows, a doc might pull through and give us an entire extra day. That won't happen if we give mafia an extra kill.

HOWEVER!

In these two posts you show you were aware this is only a good move if there is an even number of players left, and only if there are no doctors to stop the kill.

So later you went and voted no lynch with an odd number of players left, contradicting your previous logic.

Please elaborate on what made you do a 180° in your previous logical reasoning.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.
3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:52 pm
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:17 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:42 am No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.
No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.
You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.
Even if Kyle is town, it's still a bad move to go no lynch over lynching Kyle.

We gave the kill choice to the mafia and they picked Daisy. We could have lynched suspicious Kyle, which would be preferable in the endgame.

He doesn't get a free pass either. Like the other no lynch voters, his vote only helps him if he's bad.
That's actually a kind of weird line of reasoning. How do you figure that?

There were only two choices. One where I die and one where no one dies. Had I chosen the other one the situation would be the same only with one less player alive and still no new information gained.

Also... not to put too fine a point on it the whole "hey, lack of participation is poison" thing but, I was 100% ready to die until the only person online at the time told me it was better not to.

You are oversimplifying it.

You were being lynched. People came online. Speed was arguing with you for a while, and Bob came later. Around the time, you and speed could have started a lynch on any of the people I mentioned in the post above, and bob could have followed.

If you are a civ, your order of priority should be, from worst to best:

- you get lynched
- no lynch
- EVERYTHING ELSE

If you are a civ, you should have been pursuing the "everything else" scenario.

Jack has a point. It's possible that you went a logn with a no lynch because you have a teammate and wanted to protect them.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:34 pm Please elaborate on what made you do a 180° in your previous logical reasoning.
Stupidity and doctor role messing with my head. That plus not really wanting to lynch DDL or Kyle, and being refuted/checked on my math while I was really sick and tired.
Nice job copying my format btw.

I get creative when I'm scumhunting.

In mean, creative as in copying a format for the lulz. Not creating a format. You get it.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:00 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:50 pm
Kylemii wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:58 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:18 pm And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.
3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff
You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.
I didn't suspect any of those three, I suspected you and speedchuck.

But lynching someone you don't suspect is still an infinitely better move than no lynching.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:01 pm
We haven't.

Not yet, but it is looking like the best move.

Though you can argue whether it's better to do it now or in Day 6. Upside of doing it now is that there are less people to pick from next day. Downside is that we'll be dealing with s scenario where the remaining two baddies can easily push a lynch on a civ as long as 1 civ votes for each other.

Upside of doing it later is that we avoid that and don't provide such an easy way out for the baddies. But we have to get it right today with a 1/3 chance, instead of a 40% chance tomorrow.

This is how you bring a game back into activity. With a lighter and a bucket of gasoline, DDL-style.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:57 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:15 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:05 pm
speedchuck wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:01 pm
We haven't.
Not yet, but it is looking like the best move.

Though you can argue whether it's better to do it now or in Day 6
Uh, are we at MYLO now?
@Dragon D. Luffy
@colonialbob

Yes!

I have no idea why anyone is voting or contemplating voting for anyone.

There are no more power roles. A mislynch is a mafia win.

We can win if we lynch right today, no lynch next, and then lynch right again in the next day.

I'm not decided whether that or no lynching now is the best move, tho.

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:09 pm @Dragon D. Luffy @speedchuck

Can you walk me through your Day 1 Wilgy votes? Wilgy would have been my top town read at EOD 1.

I was undecided about both the Quin and Mp lynches and thought the lynch was going to shit.

I thought of doing a CFD and went after Wilgy which I had no read on, because I heard other people saying they wanted dead so I imagined there was a chance I could make it happen in the 10 minutes I had. The point was to get a succesful CFD to happen and destroy the current status quo. Basically just make some chaos.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:39 pm I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.

Thing is, we are beyond the point of gathering info. That ship sailed last day.

It's lynch mafia now, or lynch mafia tomorrow. It's time to decide the game.

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