The Syndicate

Turnip Head wrote:Yep, I definitely believe Epi views LC as a threat. But also because Epi called LC out as Yotsuba right before his death, for seemingly no reason. I think Kira might need to know something about his victim's roles, and Epi spouting out that LC was Yotsuba might have been intended to throw us off the scent. Because we all thought Epi was Yotsuba so why would he kill LC?

Turnip Head wrote:Why did you vote for Epi, Marsh?

Turnip Head wrote:Tomorrow sounds like it should be fun.

zeek wrote:I've never played in a game in which votes are not changeable, so is it normal for such early votes?

Turnip Head wrote:

Ricochet wrote:First off, I just have to ask the Host: are we to consider L's likelihod percentages as accurate or as tongue-in-cheek as in the show? Besides, does anyone have thoughts on L calling out Ace?

I think L gets to check people, he receives some sort of percentage-based intel, and then later shares that info with the thread. For instance I think he checked Aces night 1 and was able to report it on Night 2. Maybe L understands the percentages better than we do, at least I hope he does

thellama73 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:Another thing to consider: Llama said he didn't think that someone who LC accused was the one who killed him, but when Llama and I were baddies together in Harry Potter mafia, Llama killed Dom while Dom was going after him, with no hesitation. He actually sent the kill PM before even discussing it in chat, that's how much he wanted Dom dead right at that moment So I think it's in Llama's wheelhouse to kill like that, despite what he's said in this game, and I think it's in Epi's arsenal as well.

I'm a loose cannon, I am.

Turnip Head wrote:

FZ. wrote:The only difference I can see between baddies here and in regular games is that they are mostly alone, and as such, they don't have team mates telling them to come post, or defending them. So in that sense, they might try to post just the amount to seem like they are doing something, but not enough to get into the line of fire. Hmm, I guess you might have a point

I think what you might be describing here is MetalMarsh. I agree with SVS that his posts have felt fluffy.

Turnip Head wrote:MM's quick vote for Epi rings pretty false for me, especially since he just said he also considered voting elsewhere. I think he just tried to copy my swag because he realized I wasn't getting lynched for it so maybe he wouldn't either :P

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:Why did you vote for Epi, Marsh?

Because he feels bad to me.

zeek wrote:Why did you guys vote so quickly? MM, you even said it was foolish, so how can you justify it?

zeek wrote:I am going nuts here?

TH can have a go at my vote which I said myself wasn't strong, but other players can just say "I think he's bad" and vote immediately, without giving due discussion and time to consider their votes? Frankly, this is stupid. Especially from TH, who changed his mind on Llama after so voting quickly last time.

zeek wrote:Really? That's all the two of you have to say?

I suspect both of you, but I doubt it'd help to lynch either

Turnip Head wrote:You sound pretty upset Zeek.

That people don't have to give reasons and be open to discussion? Damn right. Clearly you're playing a different game to me and you don't need to do any thought on your vote. I think I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

FZ. wrote:

zeek wrote:Really? That's all the two of you have to say?

I suspect both of you, but I doubt it'd help to lynch either

Turnip Head wrote:You sound pretty upset Zeek.

That people don't have to give reasons and be open to discussion? Damn right. Clearly you're playing a different game to me and you don't need to do any thought on your vote. I think I'm just going to ignore you from now on.

TH is playing a very different game from himself as well. But never in all my games with him (not that many, but enough), and I think I was on to his baddie behaviours earlier than most players when he was bad, had he acted like this. I think he would try a lot harder. I don't think he has it in him to be a careless baddie. I'm not saying he can't be an indie role or something other than a civ, but I can't see him being that kind of baddie.

MM, on the other hand, is a different story. I don't think I know how he plays. Though both MM and TH have voted early in all days, so I keep wondering if it's a role requirement or something.

S~V~S wrote:

Epignosis wrote:I refuse to out other players even if my refusal to do so leads to others voting for me.

Who asked you to do that?

S~V~S wrote:OK, Epi. You just go ahead and don't say anything about something no one asked you to talk about anyhow.

Epignosis wrote:

FZ. wrote:Epi, aside from voting me, which obviously won't do much, who among those with votes are you willing to vote for?

See, this is what drives me bat-shit insane. I'm supposed to vote Snowman now because voting elsewhere won't do much? I will vote where I like, even if that person currently has zero votes.

I really think you are no good FZ.

Epignosis wrote:Three lynches ending at the same hour.

I am going to vote for S~V~S. Her vote for me was unexplained, as were the three that preceded hers, and I intend to NO-U the hell out of that. Also, she said she wouldn't vote for boo unless there was a "smoking gun." She gives me no such allowance. She has also ignored two of my posts so far.

Epignosis wrote:I voted Snowman. S~V~S is now my top suspect.

Epignosis wrote:I am responding to this post, which I won't quite for the sake of brevity.

The detectives need the four Kira dead to win. That isn't a simplification, as S~V~S claims- that is literally what the host wrote. If the Yotsuba need the detectives dead to win, then:

1. That contradicts what is explicitly stated in the first post,
2. Would make the game 12 vs 14, which is not balanced,
3. And would not need to be a secret.

What I said regarding the Yotsuba early on bears repeating:

Epignosis wrote:What is this "non-Light Mafia"/ "Mafia 2" I keep seeing?

Detectives win when all killers (Kiras) have been stopped and justice has prevailed.

I note that there are four Kiras: Kyosuke Higuchi (Third Kira), Light Yagami (Kira), Misa Amane (Second Kira), Teru Mikami (X Kira). Unless I am reading something incorrectly or the secret win conditions contradict this, these are the only people a detective needs dead to win. I am operating under the belief that the other Lighters play a supporting role, and that lynching them would be helpful for taking down three of the Kiras, but non-essential for victory. The host explicitly identified the killers as Kiras.

And with the exception of Kyosuke Higuchi, none of the Yotsuba are Kiras, and therefore do not need to be dead for a detective to win. I hated looking this up because I am only on episode 6, but according to http://deathnote.wikia.com/wiki/Kyosuke_Higuchi *SPOILERS* The Yotsuba betray Kyosuke Higuchi when they discover he is Kira. The premise sounds just like a Mafia game- eight people who meet, and they all know one of them is the killer but not who. Sounds like an ingenuous opportunity to put a mafia game IN a mafia game. *END SPOILERS*

Let me ask you this if you are a detective: How much closer did you come to satisfying your win condition by lynching birdwithteeth? I'll help you out: You hurt your chances. Why? Because you burned a lynch accomplishing something you didn't need to accomplish. Keep this up, and Kira will eliminate you.

The paranoia regarding independents on this site astounds me.

Epignosis wrote:That won't happen Boomslang. I have three other people pegged as Yotsuba. I will not talk about them.

Epignosis wrote:

Boomslang wrote:

Epignosis wrote:That won't happen Boomslang. I have three other people pegged as Yotsuba. I will not talk about them.

I completely understand you not wanting to reveal all your cards, especially when indicating people who might eventually get a kill. The claim that you've got three other Yotsuba suspects is at least interesting new intel. I don't expect you to name names, but can you say if you suspect them for the same reasons as you suspected LC? Would give us something to look for in possible rereads.

I firmly believe juliets is Yotsuba.

She'll deny it, and I refuse to give my reasoning, but I think I'm right.

Epignosis wrote:

boo wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Boo, you said that Snowman hasn't had a chance to defend himself. I disagree. It has been more than 24 hours since the Day has started.

How long do you consider to be an adequate "chance to defend oneself" before you would be comfortable voting for someone (not necessarily Snowman)?

A reasonable person would wait until they have to actually vote or risk missing the vote before deciding the person isn't going to respond.

Like I did with Russ...and then decided not to since no one had voted him moments before poll close?

Epignosis wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

boo wrote:

thellama73 wrote:

boo wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Boo, you said that Snowman hasn't had a chance to defend himself. I disagree. It has been more than 24 hours since the Day has started.

How long do you consider to be an adequate "chance to defend oneself" before you would be comfortable voting for someone (not necessarily Snowman)?

A reasonable person would wait until they have to actually vote or risk missing the vote before deciding the person isn't going to respond.

So your contention is that Snowman "has not had the chance to respond" until the very moment of the poll closing? Surely you can see that this is madness.

If a potential voter is there right before the poll closes? Yes. If you have to vote 5 hours before it closes, then 5 hours is the answer. 24, 24, Etc, etc.

Unless we know for a fact he is here and is just choosing not to respond, he hasn't had the chance to respond. And since he and Zomba have both not posted in quite sometime, and it is friday night, it seems perfectly reasonable to say they just haven't been here today or tonight, which is why neither of them have posted.

I'm not sure what part of this is difficult to understand.

You have stated that there is no point of any duration at which you will consider a player to have had ample chance to respond to a vote. The implication is that any player can avoid your vote by not posting and not visiting the thread.

What is hard to understand is how this relates to your earlier statements about non-participants.

I agree with llama. This is yet another dissonance.

Epignosis wrote:I want to make it clear that, despite boo's novel, I have no intention of voting llama today.

Turnip Head wrote:Epi I honestly have no idea where you stand on anyone other than you think I'm a shinigami, juliets is Yotsuba, that SVS is not Penber or something, and who can forget your Day 1 case on Russ. None of these tell me who you think Kira is. And yet you keep stressing the importance of finding Kira, and how improbable it is that the detectives will succeed. You seem disinterested in actually helping find Kira, if you ask me, which I know you didn't. But this is not your civvie MO at all.

DharmaHelper wrote:You know what, fuck it. I'm gonna vote Epi now. He is either a baddie pulling this stunt, or he is somehow not a baddie, but completely disinterested in making any kind of sense. Dead weight either way. Voting now :P

Zomberella12 wrote:@ Bea - I can't believe that you aren't taking me seriously. Also, what is a Rev player?

Ricochet wrote:

thellama73 wrote:Guys, listen to Zombrella. Snowman needs to be melted. He keeps hoping we will forget about him if he posts rarely and is jokey, but he is guilty as the day is long.

Can I vote for him without listening to Zomberella telling me to trust her because she knows better?

Black Rock wrote:

bea wrote:MM - nice case! :nod: I'll admit, I've just kinda been skimming Epi - looking for stuff that actually helps and sorta ignoring the wonky. I could see myself voting there.

OMG Zombra's avi. You two have a super fun marriage don't you?

So, I think it was SVS (?) thinking that the LC kill was probably done by a Rev player. Does anyone have any feelings on this? BR - any ideas on who might have wanted LC out of the picture?

Hubby has a dental apt in like an hour - not sure if we are running around between then and our dinner date, but I will keep up on my phone (what else am I going to do while I'm sitting in the waiting room? )

Interesting, a rev player would know him better. I do believe he has made an impression since he started playing here as well. I wouldn't limit it to a rev player at all. Killings can be a surprise. Like the last two times I was killed on night 1, I was super surprised when I found out who did it. Don't worry boys, I never forget. I know I'm not that brave. I doubt it was you or SVS. Like I already said I would be blown away if it was Epig. I also can't explain why I doubt it would be him, I guess I always think those two have a lot of fun sparring in the thread. Kinda like a respect thing. I could see DH, Llama, MM, or TH doing it. That's cause I think of them as ballsy players who like to make a statement. It's too hard to be for sure.

S~V~S wrote:

bea wrote:Epi feels genuine in these posts. And Fwiw -i think he's contributed far more than I have even if it has been tough at times to get to it.

He does? In what way~ I am missing it and if I am wrong I would like to have it explained to me.

He said exactly the same thing to MD as he said to DH, that I just want him gone. That does not sound genuine to me. Tbh.

S~V~S wrote:DH not MD

Black Rock wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

bea wrote:MM - nice case! :nod: I'll admit, I've just kinda been skimming Epi - looking for stuff that actually helps and sorta ignoring the wonky. I could see myself voting there.

OMG Zombra's avi. You two have a super fun marriage don't you?

So, I think it was SVS (?) thinking that the LC kill was probably done by a Rev player. Does anyone have any feelings on this? BR - any ideas on who might have wanted LC out of the picture?

Hubby has a dental apt in like an hour - not sure if we are running around between then and our dinner date, but I will keep up on my phone (what else am I going to do while I'm sitting in the waiting room? )

Interesting, a rev player would know him better. I do believe he has made an impression since he started playing here as well. I wouldn't limit it to a rev player at all. Killings can be a surprise. Like the last two times I was killed on night 1, I was super surprised when I found out who did it. Don't worry boys, I never forget. I know I'm not that brave. I doubt it was you or SVS. Like I already said I would be blown away if it was Epig. I also can't explain why I doubt it would be him, I guess I always think those two have a lot of fun sparring in the thread. Kinda like a respect thing. I could see DH, Llama, MM, or TH doing it. That's cause I think of them as ballsy players who like to make a statement. It's too hard to be for sure.

I wonder who you might be talking about.

Black Rock wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Black Rock wrote:

bea wrote:MM - nice case! :nod: I'll admit, I've just kinda been skimming Epi - looking for stuff that actually helps and sorta ignoring the wonky. I could see myself voting there.

OMG Zombra's avi. You two have a super fun marriage don't you?

So, I think it was SVS (?) thinking that the LC kill was probably done by a Rev player. Does anyone have any feelings on this? BR - any ideas on who might have wanted LC out of the picture?

Hubby has a dental apt in like an hour - not sure if we are running around between then and our dinner date, but I will keep up on my phone (what else am I going to do while I'm sitting in the waiting room? )

Interesting, a rev player would know him better. I do believe he has made an impression since he started playing here as well. I wouldn't limit it to a rev player at all. Killings can be a surprise. Like the last two times I was killed on night 1, I was super surprised when I found out who did it. Don't worry boys, I never forget. I know I'm not that brave. I doubt it was you or SVS. Like I already said I would be blown away if it was Epig. I also can't explain why I doubt it would be him, I guess I always think those two have a lot of fun sparring in the thread. Kinda like a respect thing. I could see DH, Llama, MM, or TH doing it. That's cause I think of them as ballsy players who like to make a statement. It's too hard to be for sure.

I wonder who you might be talking about.

Well then I can assume you aren't Kira or I'd be dead.

How many times do I owe you? How was Donner for you?

Metalmarsh89 wrote:Mata, I forgot to ask you for a response to this please. I hope you enjoyed playing outside.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:

Matahari wrote:I don't think Epig is up to any good either, but I can't really figure out why I feel that way. He's not doing anything that seems remotely helpful

I still feel weird about Metalmarsh voting Epig. His convo with Llama was very confusing, he seemed to disagree with llama, but then he would post something that sounded like he was feeding llama, then back to disagreeing with him. Then he votes epig, kind of out of the blue. Maybe he has bts with llama.

Wait, wait what? You suspect Epi, then you suspect me for voting Epi for the same reason you suspected.

MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I the only one that thinks of this every time I see "Zombra"?

Boomslang wrote:

Ricochet wrote:MetalMarsh votes Epignosis first thing D3. Only reasoning he gives is that it's because he doesn't think Epig is intentionally inconsistent.
Almost one day later, makes a big case on Epig bringing out a pattern of intentional inconsistencies.
Receives standing ovation.

Really?

Yeah... the fact that his case came out now, when momentum is starting to build in Epig's direction, is pretty damn pingy.

Other than that, there have been multiple pages of pure pissing contest between DH/TH and Epig, nothing that's really adding to the discussion in any meaningful way. And they want to throw around the "dead weight" accusation... Meanwhile, the case against Snowman is slowly improving based on my read of Zombra (as well as his continued silence), and I will likely cast a vote that way unless something unusual develops by next afternoon.

Boomslang wrote:

Metalmarsh89 wrote:May I ask why it's pingy?

Because you didn't offer it initially, only when it became clear that others would support your cause. Making a long, involved case against Epi makes your previously spurious early vote more respectable; you seem to have concluded that it the effort is worthwhile now and are committing your fire.

Boomslang wrote:

Ricochet wrote:MetalMarsh votes Epignosis first thing D3. Only reasoning he gives is that it's because he doesn't think Epig is intentionally inconsistent.
Almost one day later, makes a big case on Epig bringing out a pattern of intentional inconsistencies.
Receives standing ovation.

Really?

Yeah... the fact that his case came out now, when momentum is starting to build in Epig's direction, is pretty damn pingy.

Other than that, there have been multiple pages of pure pissing contest between DH/TH and Epig, nothing that's really adding to the discussion in any meaningful way. And they want to throw around the "dead weight" accusation... Meanwhile, the case against Snowman is slowly improving based on my read of Zombra (as well as his continued silence), and I will likely cast a vote that way unless something unusual develops by next afternoon.

Turnip Head wrote:How do you kill a shinigami, Epi?

Snowman wrote:

Zomberella12 wrote:Third time's a charm:
Snowman is exceptionally subtle in his implications. I am used to reading him and it's the duality of his post that gives him away. I use that tactic all the time, but he only does it when he feels cornered/guilty. That's really it. I know that you might feel that you don't have any reason to trust me but that's why I'm so excited about this.

Exceptionally subtle? What's the deal with your avatar?

Zombkira wrote:I use that tactic all the time...

So, like, now?

S~V~S wrote:

Turnip Head wrote:SVS he "subtly" changed her username in the second quote :P

I saw that I just want to see what context she said that in originally. Because if he took it out of context, that would put weight to her case, yes?

bea wrote:Svs - he's done it too - but that Blaime can be spread far and wide amongst the what did you call it like day one "alpha male syndrome "?

Bullz was pretty reasonable in his point about mm's case being pate and post vote in an unchangeable vote game.

Dh's posts to Epi read very pot and kettle to me ATM. Between the two I'm reading Epi as more genuine.

S~V~S wrote:

bea wrote:Svs - he's done it too - but that Blaime can be spread far and wide amongst the what did you call it like day one "alpha male syndrome "?

Bullz was pretty reasonable in his point about mm's case being pate and post vote in an unchangeable vote game.

Dh's posts to Epi read very pot and kettle to me ATM. Between the two I'm reading Epi as more genuine.

I am also surprised you say that re Booms case~ becasue what MM did is EXACTLT what I do. I read and I watch & I remember, and form my opinion. I don't generally bother with a case. I say how I feel and I vote. If someone pushes me I will pull quotes, but MM has voted Epi a few times iirc.

i have been a bit pinged by MM in various places, and tbh, that case is the thing that has gone furthest towards settling my mind a bit about him. He but it together pretty fast it seemed to me; he knew what he was thinking, and knew what he was looking for.

S~V~S wrote:I meant the bottom bit, lol, TH. Pulling that out of the quote. For someone skimming, that is the part they would remember. And a smart baddie plays to the cheap seats, the people who come in, skim & vote. That post was for the cheap seats, IMO.

I could go either way here, tbh. Zomba sounds very sure, and I can relate to that sureness, and she took DHs challange re responsibility. He sounds flip and flustered, trying to make light of it.

I don;t like it.

But Epi has been doing the heavy handed "leave the Yotsuba be" so hard, it's like he's hinting. But he insists he will not hint, yada yada yada, and THAT I believe. So I don't believe he is Yotsuba. He is not being open, I don't think, and he is not seeking Kira. He is drawing targets on people, and contradicting himself, I can't see him being a civ.

bea wrote:Yes - thank you.

Boom. Sorry about that. I am multitasking from my phone. Between typing issues and distractions and beer. Yea.

Linkie - I do agree with you about snowman though - that felt as out of context as you could pull a.post.

Linkie - booms post was fair. About mm's case being odd post actually ya know - voting because this.is not a vote changeable game.

For me its the vote first case later bit.

Again, I disagree. MM voted for Epi the day before, did he not? So it was not out of the clear blue. Again, I do this all the time. It never made you suspicious when I do it.

If he had not voted for him the previous day, I might agree. But he did vote for him Day 2.

bea wrote:I'm mafiaing while waiting on dinner date during cocktail hour - I did forget he voted Epi day2. Is it at all possible that mm and you are just misguided really Epi? And/or am I that blindsided by him? In which I'm not the only one
Elohim and llama both seem to think a vote there is a poor vote am I the only person that makes atop to pause re: Epi? Dinner starting now and phone super low on battery

Russtifinko wrote:Also, whoever it was that said "DON'T LISTEN TO TH" was absolutely right. I know people are saying they're ignoring him, but I am afraid that his constant harping on Epi has been affecting the thread anyway. So that makes me even more leery.

I'm still deciding whether I think MM's case is well-meaning.

Turnip Head wrote:At this point I'm inclined to agree that Snowman is acting pretty suspicious. Maybe Zomberella was able to see in one post what it took me twelve to see, but I think there's something fishy in how Snowman has approached the players who suspect him. He's dismissed and discredited, then finished up by calling out every single one of them as Kira even when that accusation basically makes no sense. I feel like we'd be seeing a different approach if he had a detective role, but to be honest I don't know him all that well, considering this is the first game I've played with him, and that's why I've been hesitant to judge him. I think his responses today have been weak, so I'm okay with his lynch, but what do I know?

That said, I am still just as convinced of Epi's badness, so I will not be changing my vote and I'm even more okay with his lynch.

bea wrote:And while there's no "civ cred" in the standard sense - you can't tell me that if snowman gets lynched and turns up a kira or sympathizer that it won't change how LOTS of people look at zombra or llama. Because it will. Just like you flat out asked zombra to take responsibility if snowman flipped detective. If someone is going to change their opinion of the lynch leaders in that sort of lynch based on how he flips - why WOULDN'T the same people look at the people that supported him in the same context?

Turnip Head wrote:But not all baddies on the same team have BTSC.

We've been over this

MovingPictures07 wrote:Someone remind me that I have a funny story about playing the BSG board game with Zomba and Snowman to tell at the end of the game. :P

AceofSpaces wrote:Holy shit. I was too busy Sunday and Monday to check in and post, and now there are like 20 pages for me to read.

Epignosis wrote:

DharmaHelper wrote:Here are my basic thoughts on all eight options.

1) Normal Lynch - Likely to be easier for mafias and BTSCs to either manipulate or get information from. (For example, if L is lynched as a result of the +5 vote, that would kill L and expose the +5 guy to the mafia). Sure, this can be considered a "safe" option, but playing it safe isn't going to win the civvies the game. This is essentially a blank slate that is subject to vote manipulations and easy deductions, which in my view makes it one of the more dangerous options.

2) Secret Ballot Lynch - Obviously not even close to on the table. It removes too much information from the thread, allows mafia to blend in more, and cripples the civvie effort.

3) High Poster Influenced Lynch - Encourages activity, but far too easy for the mafia to take advantage (post a lot, and gain the benefit of driving discussion AND having heavily weighed votes)

4) Low Poster Influenced Lynch - Encourages *inactivity*, which is bullshit. The mafia could blend into the background and get rewarded for it, which I don't see as a good way to go about things.

5) Early Voter Influenced Lynch - AKA the Bandwagon option, early votes would count more, therefore people would be forced to limit their views and votes to the earliest of candidates for fear of not having their vote matter in the grand scheme. An easy work around would be something like in Grimms mafia when discussion was during the Night, but this still leaves a great deal of room for abuse and manipulation.

6) Late Voter Influenced Lynch - AKA the Team Save option. gives far too much power to anyone who votes late, such as a teammate waiting to save a mafia. This would make it incredibly difficult to actually lynch any mafia when we end up catching one.

7) L and Light Influenced Lynch - Removes a lot of the control/influence from the mafia in terms of going into a lynch with a battle plan, and gives the civvies some control as well, with L deciding who he trusts at any given time. In addition to providing insight into both L and Kiras mindsets, it allows the thread to deduce information from lynches, and provides the opportunity for clever gameplay. As I see it, this is the clear winner and best option.

8) Nihilistic Random Lynch - While it shares similarities with the L/Light lynch option in that in prevents the mafia from having a set "plan" in terms of how to go about a lynch, it also takes a lot of the control and information away from the civvies as well. There is nothing to deduce from "random lynches". It has little informational benefit.

The secret ballot lynch removes information from the thread, but this criticism is not applied to the L/Light option, which would do more than that- it would give a killer heavy influence over the lynches.