The Syndicate

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:09 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:38 pm Checking in before I go. Hope there's not too big a gap between my replacement.

I'd say you should trust Jack, lapluie and Glorfindel. I'm waffling about adding 3J to that list considering my look at rabbit8's ISO. In who's case I'll say it one more time - he wasn't killed for funsies. I suggest reading him thoroughly.

I agree. Nobody kills a guy one cycle after he replaces into a game if he isn't posing a legitimate threat of some kind. I know many people here suffer from debilitating WIFOM-phobia, but I'd never kill rabbit so quickly into his first game on the site in such a long time whether he was a threat or not. If there's one thing I value more than winning and having fun, it's the long-term capacity of the website to feature a diverse and broad player base. I don't coldly welcome someone back from a long hiatus with a swift night kill. If the mafia team wanted to enjoy my worsening credit in this game, that kill was a mistake. It reminds me of the Phenon game when the mafia killed Nachomomma in his first visit and tried to pin it on me. No way, sir.

rabbit was happy to lynch Simon and nutella so we already see a promising trend there. Other names of interest were speedchuck and Made among others.

I agree with this.

Jimmy's probably not mafia or else he's fooled me baaaaaadly and I'll just take the loss in that case.

That makes Marmot look significantly worse.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:52 am Another point regarding the importance of wagon control:

If the mafia enjoy vote manipulation or empowerment and Dave and/or Dom are not among them, the disadvantage to the civilians is immense. The ability to maintain control over a lynch is what allows a game to continue, and if either of those two is a non-voting civilian then the game cannot be won unless the remaining civilians vote together every single time. Even that may not be enough. These lines in the sand can only work if both wagons are on mafia members. I think that's where we are now, but keep it in mind moving forward if you can't sort it out this time.

And if I was bad someone else (cause I'm leading a train here), I'd pretend to not understand the case on the scum player or pretend there was more to the case on the town player.

You don't have to come across good. You just have to fool one townie.

[mention]Glorfindel[/mention]
[mention]Long Con[/mention]
I would appreciate the two of you voting for Simon. Even if you don't trust me, consider that I've been trying to lynch Simon since Day 3 so if I'm bad, this is a bus and still helps the town. Nutella is probably (sticking with my 75% estimate) bad but if she's not, she's the most obvious mislynch target except maybe Jimmy (and he might be bad anyway). This means that the mafia likely has an extra vote or two on her so it's important to not have tied trains.

Consider 4 scenarios regarding Simon and Nutella.
Both are town - We're screwed. Doesn't matter what you do.
Both are scum - Great. Doesn't matter what you do.
Simon town, Nutella scum - We're screwed. Simon is gonna get mislynched or put his vote in the wrong spot sooner than later. Lynching Nutella delays the inevitable.
Simon scum, Nutella town - Your votes need to be on Simon. A town Nutella is significantly more likely to help win the game than a town Simon.

I think we're looking at scenario 2 but scenario 4 should be taken into account.

This is the exact argument I laid out to support lynching Simon over Dunya, even though I thought both were probably bad.

[mention]lapluie[/mention]
[mention]novaselinenever[/mention]

Can you please address the arguements laid out about the reliability of trackers, the debunked Dunya block theory and the much higher reliability of cops/lie detectors?

Your continued pushing on Nutella over Simon is suboptimal for the town and makes you look suspicious. If either or both of you are town, you absolutely must be less suspicious than Dom.

Long Con wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:07 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:14 am

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:42 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:57 pm ...mmm

should i buy us an extra day then?

If Quin's secret second ability is to give us an extra day or something, then isn't it against the rules to do this?

I ask not as a rule nazi, but as a guy who would love to put his second ability out there right now for public debate on usage.

I think the only way around the rules is to come up with a strategy for literally every ability ever.

That is exactly where my thoughts were going, although I was starting with "How many abilities would be reasonable to list, in order to hide mine in there?"

40



But seriously, 3-5. That would more than hide your ability for rules purposes and for strategic purposes.

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:42 pm

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:57 pm ...mmm

should i buy us an extra day then?

If Quin's secret second ability is to give us an extra day or something, then isn't it against the rules to do this?

I ask not as a rule nazi, but as a guy who would love to put his second ability out there right now for public debate on usage.

I think the only way around the rules is to come up with a strategy for literally every ability ever.

Preach, Speedchuck/Jimmy.

novaselinenever wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 8:16 pm Are scum tying the lynch ? Or are there any civil not voting Nutella after everything that happened ?

[mention]nutella[/mention]

Would a town fracker have reason to think you were bad based on night results?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:56 pm Jackofhearts2005 Yeah, those roles might exist. Still, we aren't in any position to mislynch. And heck, what happens if Smoke hits the wrong person with their ability?

I forgot about Smoke.

Town probably technically controls tomorrow's lynch if everyone is active since even if all scum get through, one of Liu Kang, King Lao and Smoke probably does too.

Hope Dom is bad.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:52 pm I take back whatever I said earlier. Lapluie could be scum if Nutella is town and Simon is scum. One mislynch is all they need. What do they care if Lap gets figured out? One mislynch here and we're done. Especially if Simon is a vote manipulator.

Exactly.

Time to ISO Nutella and Lap, gents. (I'm talking about you guys. I'm really tired.)

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:41 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 5:40 pm Not just the inactives.

I see a 3 vote swing on the front page. 4 if the mafia targets right.

. . . well crap.

This is part of why I thought Tony was bad.

We had one mislynch allowed. Tony counted 3.

It's not a sure thing. If one of four mafia players is blocked or misdirected or if Liu Kang is alive, or if Kung Lao is alive or if there's a hidden town vote manipulator of some sort and there are no additional vote manipulating powers on the scum team, the town still controls its destiny tomorrow.

That means if all the townies vote one way and all the scum vote the other and King Lao breaks the tie (if applicable), town still wins. If one townie is fooled or doesn't participate (and all the baddies do) or the above paragraph doesn't happen, scum wins.

I think it is important to get Simon. If he's one of the vote manipulation roles, that may buy us two extra days instead of one.

Not just the inactives.

I see a 3 vote swing on the front page. 4 if the mafia targets right.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:41 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:37 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

I want to hear more about this.

There is no good reason for a mafia member to defend Simon this hard if he is a teammate. It's nonsense. One is forced to invoke the most intense of WIFOM to turn that into a reality, and I think that'd be quite weak.

Mafia members are more likely to be eager to bus their single-digit posting teammate than protect him at all costs. Civilians tend to be clueless about this kind of thing and will by their very nature surround the defender post-mafia-flip with foam dribbling from their mouths waiting to pounce. Simons teammates know that.

The only alternative to consider would be: this is LyLo right now, nutella is a civilian, and lapluie is going for the win. I find that highly unlikely given the numbers.

Assuming Kano lives and all mafia lives, we are at mylo or lylo. Depends on hidden mechanics.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:24 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:16 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:07 pm Actually Tony, who do you want to lynch tomorrow if you think Simon's a bad lynch?

Good question.

Probably Nutella.

^^^^^^^

Why do you think Tony is god of Simon's alignment?

The whole premise of "well if the tracker thought X it must be so" is asinine.

I believe Tony tracked Nutella targeting a dead townie but if Tony knew who all the baddies were why didn't we lynch them?

And if Tony knew who all the baddies were, why don't you believe him about Simon?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:11 pm One thing that is blindingly clear:

If Simon is mafia then lapluie is not.

WIFOM.

If Nutella is mafia, Lap is not because then the arguement doesn't matter.

If Simon is mafia with Lap and not Nutella, a Nutella lynch is a mafia win. You can't assume she's pushing too hard against lynching Simon and therefore is good.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:37 pm I can understand the nutella votes. Tony's flip implicates her significantly. Okay.

I do think however that anyone who does not want to lynch Simon or otherwise prefers some other option should say why they feel that way. I can understand Jack's frustration on the grounds that as far as I can tell, nobody actually trusts Simon. So why not lynch him? State it clearly. The silence on the matter is bizarre.

Especially from Lap, who didn't answer why she thought Simon was town when asked directly.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:36 pm

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:34 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 am So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).

Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85

Hmmmmm


But


Say theyr both bad yeah?

If.we lynch simon today I'll be dead by tomorrow tbh

Why would you be dead by tomorrow. You're being townread by like half the game. Glor, LC and Quin are being townread by everybody and I should be being townread by everybody.

The more you push Nutella, the more I worry you're bad and Nutella is good.

If you're good, worry about Nutella tomorrow. Trust Tony, who said Simon was more likely to be bad than Nutella.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 3:52 am I figure I'll put it out there that I'm only here until a few hours before EoD. If you've got any beef with, speak now or forever hold your peace.

I'd vote either nutella or Simon. I'd say that I'm leaning more towards nutella because TSP seemed confident in his scum read, plus his flip. Quite likely it's a claim based on information.

I 100% agree and maintain that a lynch on Simon is preferable to a lynch on Nutella, just as it was preferable to a lynch on Dunya.

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:06 pm You guys don't actually think Simon's is bad, youre voting him off because he's inactive, there's no real evidence that he's mafia, the real evidence is in nutella.
Tony was very adamant in nutella being bad.
But I feel like I'm talking to myself now & nobody's listening so ...rip....

Where on Earth are you getting this idea?

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:50 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:08 pm @Glorfindel
@Marmot
@Made
@Long Con

Come back to kick butt thx

Sup fam!

I will begrudgingly get on board with a nutella lynch, but I really fear that following lapluie's advice again is going to turn out like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy's football.

If nutella flips Civ, I'll be voting lapluie forever.

How bout we not risk the game on a player that you don't even trust's word?

This game is going to go down in history as the game where Jack failed to lynch a scummer three days in a row even though the scummer did not defend himself and pretty much everyone agreed he was mafia, isn't it?

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:54 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:52 pmJaggedJimmyJay

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

I can't tell if you're actually asking me that or qualifying your own decisions today.

Qualifying. I thought we had this conversation on HCRealms. I think I'm thinking of a conversation I had with Golden. Nm.

[mention]nutella[/mention]

Your targets ever turn up dead.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

This is like "how was your night?" There be reasons.

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:36 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:34 pm That's not a claim. I just think this is good reasoning.

Do you agree with Tony or not?

I isoed Nutella and she looked good.

That said, I have no doubt Tony tracked Nutella targeting the mafia kill and there is only one known misdirector. While Tony may have drawn the town misd, his info is probably accurate.

If I had to put a number on it, I'd say 75% chance Nutella is bad based on Tony's info. My actual read on her fluctuates with my read on you atm.

But don't listen to me. I said I was really good at mafia the other day but I forgot to mention I apparently suck at mafia except that part of the game where I caught Simon.

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:14 pm

TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 am

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime

Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?

@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel

Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?

I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.

Is this alone enough proof that nutella is bad, he wasn't so sure about Simon, correct me if I'm wrong about that

Trackers are one of the less reliable kmfo gatherers.

Mislynch when:
1) Tracker is misdirected
2) Target targeted mafia hit on purpose but didn't kill them
3) Target targeted the mafia hit on accident but didn't kill them

This is in contrast to cops, who have just problem 1 and semi rare cloaks and millers, lie detectors that are generally airtight and watchers who suffer from 1-3 to a much lesser degree.

That doesn't mean Tony's wrong about Nutella but it does mean that when the town fracker says Nutella is bad, I don't drop what I'm doing, esp at or close to mylo when I have what I believe to be a surefire baddie in Simon.

Nutella is worth looking into.

That's not a claim. I just think this is good reasoning.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:08 pm

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 pm Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

I think MacDougall's theory that Jack was bussing Simon was merited enough that one of two scenarios is true:

~ Jack knows something about Simon via honest means, and it's more conclusive than a blocked kill.

~ Jack is bussing Simon.

If the former is true, that's a good lead on Simon being mafia. If the latter is true, Simon is definitely mafia.

lapluie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 pm Hang on a second..why are we voting simon again?

Cause the goal of the game is to lynch the mafia before the kill all the townies.

[mention]JaggedJimmyJay[/mention]

Why do you think a neutral in this game would claim?

What do you think of Speed's analysis on your claim and Marmot's claim yesterday? That is, how good was the analysis and what does it do for your Speedchuck read?

At this point, I'm not even sure if I should even ask you for reads. Whatever.

Well, on the one hand, losing Kyle is a big loss. On the other, that still leaves two other players I trust unconditionally and I still feel really good about Quin.

Doubting many of my reads, particularly my baddie reads on Jimmy and Wilgy. (Laugh it up if I was right you first time you bastards. )

I still feel very confident about my Simon read and I can actually do something about it now.

*Vote Simon*

Ugh.

Agreed LC is obvious town. Suck part is with two leading town wagons, the vote counts are not as useful. If Tony flipped bad, there's some breadcrumbs on top of the good lynch.

Tony's flip makes Nutella look worse. Tony forgetting to make a case, acting like the case was apparent and then putting forth a weak case makes me think there was never a case. Tony tracked Nutella making a kill or similar or else thought he did. Nutella basically disputed the idea of anyone having info on her.

I'm too tired to analyze the rest of this.

Anyone who thinks I'm bad with Simon, lynch Simon. A walk's better than striking out. Anyone who thinks I'm good should also lynch Simon.

Quin wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:32 pm

Glorfindel wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:22 pm @@Quin Thoughts on LC please?

Besides like, 2 posts, I have literally 0 idea what he was trying to do with his Day 2 curse. It felt like he was just throwing whatever image took his fancy at the thread. Doesn't look great.

He posts a gif of Iron Man (TSP) a lever being pulled (voting) a pretty white dove (Glor) and then wtf guy.

"Why is Tony voting for Glor?"

Incidentally, this is why Tony got votes on Day 2.

He also stated his agreement to another case and voted accordingly.

I think LC's D2 is much like the rest of his game. Not his best but it reads busy over scum by a wide margin.

[mention]Quin[/mention]

Laps felt like that most of the game to me. Innoffensive, I mean.

[mention]Glorfindel[/mention]

What specifically do you not like about Lap?

For me, it's the lack of trigger discipline. Like looking for reasons to abandon good trains like Simon and Tony in favor of bad ones like Dunya and LC.

Quin, would indy Lap do that? I think that's a scum or town trait. Indy can coast at this point.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:11 pm I just keep coming back to Jay's behavior. He wouldn't be acting so brazen if his teams whole plan could be taken down with something as readily available as a Tony or Wilgy lynch.

I feel like I've made this exact response.

Tony was not strongly suspected until after Jay was silenced.

And I'm not gonna bet the farm on any potential w/w connections with Jay where wine could cloud things after failing so badly to find his buddies in Mountains.

I'm like "would scum Jay do this" but not "would scum Jay do this if X was scum?" or "would scum Jay do this if X was town?" because as far as I'm concerned, the answer is "yes" to the later two for all values of X. If you're better at reading bad Jay than me, have at it.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:17 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:53 pm Tony I still view as bad. I think we should hold the line on him.

Keep in mind that the baddies can swing lynch votes by a lot, probably 3 in a day phase if planning goes well.

Think back to Pirates. An errant vote allowed me at Speedchuck to pounce at EOD for a scum victory. There's no real reason to leave a couple votes on Nutella or Long Con or anyone else we aren't planning on lynching. Between the hidden mafia vote and vote nullification, a 2 vote player could be lynched over a 4 vote player. This is not the time to make a statement. At EOD, don't point your vote at something you don't intend to kill.

that only worked because it was mylo. I do not know why you're bringing that ip

Cause mylo was obvious in that game and may not be obvious here and also I might be dead and unable to say it later.

Tony I still view as bad. I think we should hold the line on him.

Keep in mind that the baddies can swing lynch votes by a lot, probably 3 in a day phase if planning goes well.

Think back to Pirates. An errant vote allowed me at Speedchuck to pounce at EOD for a scum victory. There's no real reason to leave a couple votes on Nutella or Long Con or anyone else we aren't planning on lynching. Between the hidden mafia vote and vote nullification, a 2 vote player could be lynched over a 4 vote player. This is not the time to make a statement. At EOD, don't point your vote at something you don't intend to kill.

Made is bothersome. I don't understand any of his reads. It's almost like he quoted random posts and assigned random reads and then stated the posts were the reason for his reads. He came out swinging on Day 1, got some town cred, was wrong and then disappeared. I keep hoping he'll come back and generate enough content to make me know he's town but I don't know he is.

Lap is also worrisome. I've scumread her most the game. This is offset somewhat by Sloonei (and Quin iirc) continuing to town read her. After really locking in on some suspects, she's gone off my radar a bit.

I don't like her jumpy vote switches, particularly from Simon to Dunya and now all over. Wilgy is actually coming out ahead in their one on one. Still, gth good.

I have no reason to read Nutella bad. She gets some cred for being falsely pushed by Tony. Overall, I've been townreading her all game. I've isoed her and only found more reason to trust her.

Long Con seems good to me. Call it a heart read. I think he's doing the best he can with what he has, timewise. I don't see opportunistic jumpy bad LC here.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:20 pm Jackofhearts2005, where you at? I want you (and anyone else around) to create a readlist rainbow kind of thing. But I don't need you to read every player. Just every player with votes on them currently.

(by all means, feel free to add one with zero votes, but it'd be helpful to know where everyone stands, especially on LC and made)

If you're on the list, you don't have to include yourself.

linki oh hi

I'll go down the line.

Wilgy has been bad on my list specifically for a few reasons.
1) His scumreads have been aimed at townies
2) His reads and votes have been entirely unsubstantiated until his read on me today, which had a reason but it was a very surface level reason. The whole expectation of town flipping thing might fly on Day 2 or with a player with 7 posts. It's Day 4, we're doing bad and I have hundreds of posts. And that's Wilgy's most explained read. His read on Lap is equally devoid of content.
3) Ignoring urges to participate from others, particularly from me about his play style today and from Kyle on Day 2.

But as stated in previous games, I have a hard time telling weak play and scum play apart at times. It's all well and good to be able to blame a loss on someone else but a loss is a loss. Wilgy played a poor game in Streetfighter, imo. I am just as sure he's bad now as I was in that game for similar reasons. That worries me.

As you stated before, this is the most town Wilgy has looked. As he stated, that's disappointing.

Overall, gth bad but I am more confident in my read on Tony....and Simon and Jimmy. Wilgy presumably has 3ish day phases to convince us he's town. If he is town, I suggest he tries. As is, he's below Dom and Dom could be mafia and we'd never even know. Every townie (and scummer I guess) should be aiming to be more trusted than Dom. If Dom is bad and any townied are less trusted than him, we're fucked.

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:46 pm

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:51 pm @DrWilgy

Why you no answer my questions?

Which one.

All of them, apparently.

Welcome to the game.

Walk me through the differences in your playstyle in this game, in Pirates and in Street Fighter.

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]

[mention]DrWilgy[/mention]

Why you no answer my questions?

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:05 pm

DrWilgy wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:55 pm

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:18 pm I was not moved much at all by TSP's nutella case.

Who were you moved by?

I am currently unmoved.

Who are everyone's top two lynch candidates right now?

Still Simon and Jimmy.

Still Tony and Wilgy out of the players we can actually lynch today.

Long Con wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:18 pm I was not moved much at all by TSP's nutella case.

Same.

Marmot wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:43 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:47 pm

Marmot wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:45 pm

speedchuck wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:43 pm Lynch me on my content if you want to, but don't use my attendance at a freaking wedding to throw shade. That's desperate and low.

I'm freaking trying. Ask me questions, because I can't catch up like this

Was there an open bar?

If not, you're getting my vote.

I don't drink. Vote me.

And no there isnt

Linki @jjj rammer was accusing me of being in chatty instead of playong

Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:37 am

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:01 pm I've been at a party

Oh nm. Speed is drunk.

The joke is I'm so clearly town, Speed must be drunk, not that I actually think he is.

I'm waffling on Speedchuck. He seems bad but he generally does what I want him to do and seems to be hunting (or faking it), which seems good.

Based on previous experience with Speedchuck, this leads me to believe we are in a mafia game together.

Gth bad but he will probably be the last mafia member I vote for if that makes sense.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:01 pm I've been at a party

Oh nm. Speed is drunk.

Lol wut r u doin Speedchuck?