The Syndicate

Matt wrote:Right now, I'm leaning on a Wilgy vote because I'm not a fan that he didn't claim until the bitter end of the last day phase. Also, did he officially claim that day? Epi said something about "10:02 eastern", I'm still not entirely sure if Wilgy made his claim before or after the phase was over.

Please don't vote Wilgs until you are caught up.

Ricochet wrote:I did reason it
You called it utter bullsuit

To be precise, I called it complete and utter bullsuit. But that doesn't fit your meter, does it?

Ricochet wrote:So you are fine with
A Cylon keeping his claim?
Huh... and four more words since he is good.

Ricochet wrote:And Epignosis

Yeah, I don't count Epi. We all know he is cylon in the first place, and in the second, I'm fine if Athena keeps her one-time get-out-of-lynch free card.

Ricochet wrote:For what it is worth I'd ask
Remaining claimers

To recap their reasons
Not to claim and... I forgot
The fraking lyrics

You first.

Polo wrote:@Drumbeats so, if my guess was right, then I'm mafia to you? That is utterly ridiculous and I'd expect a solid accusation from anyone who doubts my civness.

Yeah, I love this.

DrumBeats wrote:Basically:
Wilgy flips town ---> Scum read on Polo/Dex - Willing to push it
Wilgy flips scum ---> Null read with a slight scum lean on Polo/Dex - Only willing to push if I find something else

If we're right (about trying so stop a bad lynch), we're scum. If we're wrong, we're slightly less scum.

DrumBeats wrote:Glorfindel
OA
Sokoth Rico
Vompatti

rabbit8 wrote:Okay. I'm a Cylon.

Then there were Glorfindel, Vomps, Obscure, and Rico.

Epignosis wrote:I'd like other opinions on DrumBeats. I don't like his methodology or his conclusions.

Can't be a surprise coming from me, but neither do I.

rabbit8 wrote:Why? I'm sure you said but I'm being lazy and would really appreciate and explanation from anyone who thinks declaring is civvie minded?

Cylons benefit by not declaring as it gives them a one-time get-out-of-lynch-free pass. Nothing happens to humans who declare. Cylons are therefore more motivated to not declare. It's just another piece of evidence to weigh - personally I find it a very useful one - when determining who's who. Or who' what, I guess.

rabbit8 wrote:Would this help your case?

No, I just find it generally civ helpful. There are only five undeclared left.

[quote="DrumBeats"So by that logic, we have a total of four mafia in a 29 player game? That does not seem right at all. Mafia would then be Cavil, Boomer, Simon, and Aaron. Then maybe some of the final five, depending on how those mechanics work. There's a chance I guess based on that mechanic, but even in that scenario: it is still only a 40% shot Wilgy is a civ cylon as far as the remaining ones go.[/quote]

Yes, but then you're not taking into account the rez ships and martial law, which forces us to kill all the cylons. I guess you missed that post as well. We've been very lucky.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 40#p282340

rabbit8 wrote:I agree. I also don't believe Cap Six is the only one left. I count a few.

You're familiar with the show, then?

You know, when I subbed in it was for a player who hadn't made the "I am a cylon" declaration, same as you. I choose to declare. Any chance you'll follow suit?

DrumBeats wrote: Cap Six is the presumed last one, but that is only one out of the remaining cylons..

I'll just keep repeating myself. If there is a anti-Cavil faction, Leoben is part of it.

DrumBeats wrote:You went from pushing him to claim toaster straight to confirming him civ. You say it is not a whim and you have clear reasoning but expect us to take it at face value, going as far as to say that you suspect anyone who pushes Wilgy.

You don't have to take it as face value. The evidence is there, I'm just not allowed to show it to you. You can look for it if you cared to. S~V~S did, and found it from what she's said of it.

My motivation is to prevent a bad lynch.

DrumBeats wrote:I went back a bit to look at stuff and found this. This post makes me believe to a high degree that Wilgy is not a cylon that is part of the anti-Cavil faction. The underlined portion implies that we would not know he is "civ-aligned" based on his character flip. If he were one of the remaining "good cylons" we have discussed, this would not be an issue.

When LoRab flipped D'Anna, the leader of what I perceive to be the anti-Cavii faction, nobody (but me) believed it to be a bad lynch, because cylon. Same situation here. We were not told D'Anna's alignment and we won't be told Leoben's or Caprica 6's or anyone else's for that matter.

S~V~S wrote:No one made any mention of potential civ cylons until after Epi was rezzed that I can recall.

We were also lucky that the first cylon we tried to lynch was a good one, while the rez ships were still functioning. We didn't lose Athena.

Ricochet wrote:Citation needed.

And delivered

Golden wrote:
indiglo wrote:Resurrection Ship
Resurrection Ship

and

Golden wrote:The event was triggered by indiglo, not timed, but given only one mission can be made every 6 hours, being there at the time of the event being triggered is not overly important.

Ricochet wrote:Dex, my impression
would be that the hunt for ships
would have started fast.

Could be wrong of course
but being kept in the dark
until first cylon lynch

would have been rather
detrimental design-wise

It was a triggered event, not timed. Someone had to say something about rez ships. I guess its possible someone would have done that before any cylons were rezzed, but that's what made Indi think about it this time.

Ricochet wrote:la la la la la

Heh. Muse abandoning you?

[quote="Polo"Martial law is not in effect anymore.[/quote]

...because we were so quick to get rid of Cain. Get it? You wouldn't expect us to have done that so fast. Normally you'd expect her to be around a lot longer. Most people weren't even hunting her yet or were even convinced we should. Typically, we'd be under martial law a lot longer than we were.

I'd like to invite everybody to think about how lucky we've been so far.

1. Indi triggered the rez ship event as early as it could possibly happen. We just so happened to find a cylon on our first lynch. When Epi was instantly resurrected, it put that part of the show lore in Indi's mind, and she commented on it. We might very well not yet have found a cylon, in which case not yet know about the rez zhips, let alone have begun to hunt for them.

2. We identified and eliminated Cain pretty darn quickly after she seized control. Who knows how long it might have taken to find her? Ordinarily, martial law is still in effect at this point in the game.

3. We lynched O'Neill.

Except for this good fortune, we might be here today needing to do eight lynches, but unable to do any.

I mention this in support of Leoben being civ, in case anyone is thinking a four-team mafia seems too easy.

Polo wrote:@Dex: how many mafia roles do you think exist in this game?

I think there were four kill-all-human cylons at game start: Cavil, O'Neill, Doral and Boomer.

Then there's the Final Five, so who knows how that plays out.

There's also the possibility of a Gaeta's revolt. Cain was an independent, I suppose you'd call her, and its likely Zarek is too.

The Defence of DrWilgy

I'm going to try this one last time before the votes start to fall in earnest

1. I am as certain that Wilgs is a civ cylon as I was the LC was Cain. You'll recall that I pushed hard for an LC lynch. Now that Cain is dead, everyone's life is better. Particularly civ cylons.

2. My belief that Wilgs is a civ cylon is not a hunch or gut-based. It is a logical deduction that follows from his posts. The only question is rather or not Wilgs was being honest. I think in context its quite apparent he was. I'd say he's been perfectly honest ever since he declared.

3. For those posting that Wilgs can't be a civ cylon because Caprica 6 is the last one and the math doesn't work, you are incorrect. Leoben is also a civ cylon.

A. He sided against Cavil in the cylon rebellion, along with D'Anna, Caprica 6, and Athena. He also aids Roslin during Gaeta's mutiny, and has a Starbuck connection. He is not part of the Cavil clique, group, faction, or whatever you want to call it.
B. It makes more sense in terms of game balance that this role be civ.

Since Wilgy never claimed to be Caprica 6 and has frequently pointed this out, I'm guessing he is Leoben. The only people with an interest in killing Leoben are Cavil's faction and any humans who still want to kill all cylons.

I vote Glorfindel.

On principle. My friend.

Time to take a break.

Silverwolf wrote:Dex-You say you want Rico in second? Can you lay out why you think he's bad?

His reasons for not declaring are complete and utter BS.

It's got to the point for me where I feel like most players are just skim reading and mailing it in. It's really disheartening. This game deserves better.

DrumBeats wrote:1) He is a nonconfirmed cylon. So many people have cleared him based on speculation that he is Cap Six, but the statistic odds that he is are slim..

That is not why I "clear him". There is no speculation.

Silverwolf wrote:Everyone goes their own way, with their own shit, and that's a big reason town loses on this site so much.

This is so true. I don't even see people trying to coordinate. It's very frustrating.

In that vein, a quick straw poll shows GMan, you and me ready to go Glorf. I don't know what's up with Epi, it's like he's allergic to cooperation.

I'd really like to coordinate on the second most votes, too, and again will suggest Rico.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:SO SAY WE ALL

Everyone look, I did it! I really did it!

ObscureAllure wrote:There is one "possibly Civ" cylon left (Capricia six)

I don't think this is true.

Silverwolf wrote:I like Epi's plan to put Glorfindel up in first place today but the second place person better be someone we are fairly certain is bad. I can't case Glorfindel again right now because I have a fever and am going to bed. But I will. I will be pushing this hard this day phase. I think it's critical we force him to claim. Just make sure number two is someone we have a consensus is scum and make sure Glorf is number one at the end.

I'm on board. How about Rico second?

SO SAY WE ALL!

My first preference would be Rico. I could happily vote Glorfindel. I could also go after Obscure.

I will oppose an attempt on Wilgy any way I can.

G-Man wrote:A lot of intriguing conversation going on today. If Golden the Coward wasn't so secretive we'd know more about factions and failed NK attempts. I blame him.

I'm working on updated technicolors. I'll post them during tonight's hockey game.

Go Sharks!

Epignosis wrote:Is there grounds for assuming Cavil has BTSC?

Not outside of standard mafia game setup, I guess not.

S~V~S wrote:My problem is you trying to imply that other people finding him suspicious BEFORE THE LYNCH without benefit of your mystery reason are themselves suspicious. Do you see the distinction I am making?.

I do. I'm sorry. To be clear, I myself was suspicious of him before the lynch and was almost voting for him myself. I have no problem with people gunning for him before the lynch. I understand why people were suspecting him based on his game play. But post-lynch, the BTSC cylons now know he is a cylon and know he isn't one of them, same as LoRab and Epi.

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
Metalmarsh89 wrote:Wilgy has already claimed though.
This is directed at Dex who said he was fine with DrWilgy not claiming.

Up until he was about to be lynched, same as LoRab. I'm saying its understandable why an anti-Cavil cylon would choose to not declare.

S~V~S wrote:Have you read his ISO before he came under fire and actually started playing the game? I hope you are not basing all of this on associative evidence, like the bolded above, as opposed to thread based evidence (Wilgy acting as sketchy as all hell). Now he is acting all indignant as if he were confirmed civilian, and you are saying you will suspect people for suspecting him?

I am inclined to trust you on this since this is very much something I do myself, but please keep the saber rattling down since you aren't defending someone who was acting like a model citizen.

I am not basing this on associative evidence. I was willing to vote Wilgy in the spirit of fostering civ cooperation before I decided to go all Cain mutiny instead. I am not defending Wilgy's playstyle. But after the lynch post, I saw that he was telling the truth.

Silverwolf wrote:Dex-My problem is that you are assuming that Wilgy is one of the good ones. Your reasons are vague and can't talk about it and asking people to trust you. This isn't good enough for me. I need to know why, outside of something you can't say, he's a good cylon. If I was a bad cylon, my tactic would be to try to convince everyone I'm good. I'd start acting like it by hunting people immediately to get the focus on others. Wilgy has been better since he claimed but he waited until the last minute to do so. We are lucky this interference in the lynch turned out the way it did and not the way it would have in the Nero/LoRab situation. I don't know the lore like the rest of you. My play is based on scumhunting like I always do. Like I said, I'm willing to go along with their being non-Cavil cylons and leaving them alone, but I don't know if Wilgy is one of those or one of the Cavil ones and if he's one of the Cavil ones, I want him gone.

I get that Silver. I am only assuming that Wilgy is one of the good ones in the same sense I was assuming LC was Cain. The evidence is in-thread. I understand that you can't just take my word for it and that not being able to be specific about it is really unsatisfactory. You've got to go by your gut.

Ricochet wrote:I'd interject that the concept of Wilgy claim Caprica Six would arise "for no reason" or "all of a sudden", because there are not many original Cylon numbers we could infer to be non-baddie aligned. Maybe Leoben for being linked with Starbuck after a while? That's about it, though. So, with LoRab flipping Anna, who else to take into consideration but a Cylon such as Caprica Six?

Still playing the same card you did with LoRab. There's only one possible civ-friendly role left, what are the odds that it's Wilgy, best to just kill him.

Ricochet wrote:The President passed a law, she did not pass a "plan". If you're telling me that the PLAN of the President was to have everyone circumvent the law and push for a total extinguish of the law's amnesty effects, you are extrapolating a bit wildly, I'd say. Nevertheless, yet again, I was under the impulse of the law having value in outing Cylons, as was shown in making LoRab cave. Frankly, it made Wilgy cave as well, it seems, which this time also had a more agreeable consequence (Cain's death).

OK, but I'm not talking about the President's law, I'm talking about Marmot's plan.

Ricochet wrote:"Civs gain the advantage" ... "even if civs gain no advantage". Huh?

Civs actually do gain an advantage, but even if that weren't the case...

Ricochet wrote:Anyway, I stick by what I said. I still find it a bit odd to say that civs gain an "advantage". At the very best (and I think even LC mentioned this), they eliminate a disadvantage. Then, status quo of normal lynch would resume and the civs would have the same chances to lynch baddies as they did before the amnesty law was passed.

And you're unwilling to eliminate a disadvantage and return to the status quo because..?

Ricochet wrote:Not what I meant. In light of an incomplete amnesty cleanup, baddies could "blend" by claiming within the pack of claimers and, given the controversy in this matter, leave civilians who (for various reason) may oppose the claiming plan to be eyeballed in the aftermath.

Except that there are no good reasons for human civs to oppose the claiming plan

Ricochet wrote:I was also very clear what a "witchhunt" in this situation might be. If claimlist remains incomplete, there is no fundamental way to ascertain that all non-claimers must be bad. If you'll push for an agenda to blindly purge all non-claimers, you'd be basically conducting what I called witchhunt.

There's a damn good chance, however, that non-claimers must be cylon. There are witches. They are bad. They are hiding.

I'm fine with Epi, LoRab, and Wilgy not claiming. It's the rest of you that concern me.

Ricochet wrote:For more proof, just check Matt's posts during Day Five. As soon as the non-claimer list shortened to a number that could still be reasonably associated with a baddie team (say 6...7), he went on "let's show our pitchforks at these, baddies surely must be there" mode.

Matt wrote:We need to put pressure on them. Do I think they're all "bad" ? No. Do I think Cavil and/or other bad cylons are hiding in this bunch? Absolutely.

Matt's right.

Spacedaisy wrote:You can say it looks however you like. I definitely human and I am not mafia. Additionally, I believe that there is a high likelihood that win cons are fluid for various roles based on events and time in the game. Yep those two may have a win con that might be conducive with the humans, but can you say based on their earlier actions in the series that they are civilian aligned? I can't. I'm not inclined to trust them easily. I would trust Athena right now, and that is about it. This game is designed with a lot of gray area I think. Anyway Wilgy has made a request and I'll look into it, if not tonight then tomorrow. I don't feel anymore trusting of sig than others do, so we will see if it changes my mind about who to give my vote to next.

It's a mistake to limit our consideration of cylon alignment to their behavior in the show alone; there's also game balance to consider. Back before I subbed in 3J established that 20:8:1 was hardly balanced. Then people grudingly accepted that maybe Athena was civ friendly; is 21:7:1 all that different? What number of BTSC cylons do we find reasonable? We shouldn't be looking at Leoben, say, in terms of "At this point in the show he was truly evil, but at that point in the show he was anti-Cavil, so who knows?" We should be looking at Leoben in terms of how many non-BTSC cylons do we think there are, and, given that number, who, according to the lore might they be?

Again, in my opinion, the cylon rebellion simply hands us the answer. Four for Cavil's BTSC faction (three remain) and three or four for the anti-Cavil faction (depending on whether Caprica 6 is an Indy or not). Given the rez-ship advantage and the x-factor of the Final Five, this sounds about right to me.

We've been uncannily good at uncovering non-BTSC cylons. Epi right off the bat, then LoRab, now Wilgy. And so soon as we do, the BTSC cylons pile on. We have to stop treating anti-Cavil cylons as second class civs. Who knows what LoRabs power was? Maybe we are sorely hampered without it.

I'm looking at players who kept pushing for an Epi lynch even after he flipped Athena. I'm really looking at players who just complacently gave in to martial law - "Well, Epi might be good, LoRab might be good, but all cylons must die, whaddya gonna do?" I'm looking at players who jumped at the LoRab bandwagon, and I'll be looking at players pushing hard for Wilgy.

After doing an ISO on you, Daisy, I see that you do not fit this criteria. So I'll just ask you to trust me on Wilgy.

S~V~S wrote:I would like to hear the reason, becasue I specifically feel he is bad. He stepped up to the plate to defend himself, but before that, he was *not* town Wilgy, imo.

Certain tends to mean "info"; that is why when I was certain about LC, I clarified it that I did NOT have info. I assume you are not implying this. But I want you to clarify this. I DO trust you, but just becasue you are a civ does not mean you are correct.

If you have a reason, I would like to hear it.

I am not certain in the sense that I have info. I, also, was not certain about LC being Cain in the sense that I had info, but, damn, I was certain. Unfortunately, I cannot be more specific because the Golden One has admonished us about discussing this topic further. I realize that is wonky. I will say, though, that someone I trust completely in this game once said something nearly identical before I even subbed in this game. I hate being mysterious like that, but my hands are tied.

Ricochet wrote:No, just tablet keyboard failing.

bea followed another player's vote and voted for a player nobody had any interest in lynching, given that he had claimed. Talk about noncommittal on Day Five.

Now that you're uninsanified, I hope that you will help me understand why you think Marmot's cylon declaration plan is vulnerable to manipulation and may lead to witch-hunts. You're looking a little worse to me just now, tbh.

Silverwolf wrote:But there IS a reason Silver. Do you trust me? Do you read me civ? It seems to me that your wolf-nose is very good at sniffing out alignment. What does it tell you about me?

I didn't like D'Faraday but you are a lot better and I'm leaning civ on you at the moment. I don't want to hear you think he's Six. I about lost it when polo pulled that card. I don't know the lore of this show as well as some others but I do know if he's bad, he can't be kept around on a whim. I'm willing to believe there are cylons who do not follow Cavil and I'm willing to believe they might not be all cylons, but I'm not going to just let someone I've been reading as bad all game go for no reason because everyone starts saying they now think he's good, or even more ridiculously, that he's Six for no reason.[/quote]

I have no idea what his role is, but I'm certain he's in the anti-Cavil faction. Again, it's NOT for no reason. This is no whim.

Silverwolf wrote:I don't understand, considering Wilgy's behavior all game, that he's suddenly good just because he claimed cylon at the last possible minute and acted like a civ at the last possible minute to save himself.

Sorry, but I'm not that gullible. He's been acting bad all game as the person before him did. I'm not leaving him alive cuz he claimed and suddenly people are thinking he's good for no real reason.

That's some first rate BS right there.

But there IS a reason Silver. Do you trust me? Do you read me civ? It seems to me that your wolf-nose is very good at sniffing out alignment. What does it tell you about me?

DrWilgy wrote:And suddenly the players who doesn't know Galactica lore is confused

Suffice it to say, my good Doctor, that I now believe you when you say you are not a bad toaster. I am as certain of this as I was that LC was Lame Cain, and I will do whatever is in my power to convince others of this as well.

a2thezebra wrote:A Long Con lynch will be disastrous.

What impending disaster can we expect?

Spacedaisy wrote:Because there are not living Cylons I would trust at this point. Epi has the only one I would really trust to be good. People keep talking about Caprica Six and Gaius but frankly I would not trust either of those roles farther than I could throw them. I would be very willing to bet they have their own win Cons and I wouldn't trust them to be in the best interest of the civs at all. I mean come on, Gaius' only concern in the course of the show was Gaius. And Caprica Six was the one who used him to get through the defenses of the colonies. Why in name of the Lords of Kobol would I ever trust these two roles? So you tell me Wilgy, what Cylon role do you see still living that I should trust? Unless the final five have been activated, I don't believe you. And I still feel it is too early for that. So no, I think you are bad.

This is just not true, Leoben and Caprica 6 were both part of D'Anna's anti-Cavil faction (Gaius is human). Frankly, this looks like mafia cylon looking for an easy civ cylon kill to me.

...and then there were the Fishy Five.

Wilgy, if you really are a civ cylon then for Pete's sake declare already. If you are a civ cylon, why wouldn't you?

DrWilgy wrote:GTH reads on everyone
Zebra - Good
Bea - Good
BR - Good
Dex - God
DrumBeats - Good
Epi - Good
Glorf - Bad
G-Man - Good
JJJ - Bad
Juliets - Good
LC - Good
Marmot - Bad
Matt - Good
OA - Bad
Polo - Good
Rico - Bad
SVS - Good
Sig - Bad
Silver - Good
SokothQultuq - Bad
Daisy - Good
Vompatti - ???

Please... you're embarrassing me.

Ricochet wrote:Proposal:

unexaggerated top wagon.
Long sensibleness second selfcomplacency.

Check if Sig's claim is license.
not, "bonus" choky.

yay/ nay?

It's really difficult to say.

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Exercise time: for just a moment, erase all notions of that claiming business from your mind. Tell me who your suspects are.

Rico was on my list. Upon completing an ISO on him, it actually turns out to be almost entirely based on the claiming business. Otherwise he really is a rather firm civ read for me. However, it's not just the mere fact of not claiming that pings me, it's the reasons stated. Rico would post things like

Ricochet wrote:Everyone uses his claim Day 4. Cool.
Tell me which are the Cylons.
Tell me how the baddies are hurt, in this instance.

The aim of the plan is not to out cylons. The baddies are hurt because, if they're cylons, they lose their lynch immunity. Its so basic that questioning it makes me very suspicious. And again

Ricochet wrote:But even so:
Everyone claims.
Baddies lose amnesty.
Status quo of normal lynch resumes.

That's fine, but it's just that. We civs gain no advantage.

Civs gain the advantage of not having to lynch baddies twice. Even if we civs gain no advantage, isn't taking away a baddie advantage reason enough to go along with the plan? Basic, basic stuff. Ultimately, he says

Ricochet wrote:The plan is manipulable. The Cylons could blend and then maybe fuel a witchhunt for anyone who hasn't claimed. Because god knows some of you are already in "he who opposes = FoS" mode.

This puzzles me. In absence of the plan, the cylons are blending, only with a lynch pass in their pocket. Since cylons are the only ones who could possibly gain from not claiming, it follows that there are quite likely to be cylons among the last six non-claimers. How is this a "witchhunt"? I really hope, once he's uninsanified, he can help me understand his point of view on this.

Other than that, I found his insistence that if LoRab was a civ cylon she would have to be Caprica Six:

Ricochet wrote:if she's Cylon and good, the only lore leeway I could accept, in theory, is her being Caprica Six. Anna D'whatshername also kinda rebelled against the other numbers at one point, but it was for personal goals (finding out the Final Five), not human ones. That's still one/two Cylons out of a remaining roster of six. So unless LoRab can prove convincing that she just so happens to be the one potential non-mafia Cylon character in the game, there won't be much against the notion of lynching her again come tomorrow.

He's solid on the show and a careful reader, so I'm not sure how he missed Indi's post on the rebellious cylons, which I'll re-re-post

indiglo wrote:Cavil Faction: ones (Cavil), fours (O'Neill), fives (Doral) and Boomer (Cavil also hated the Final 5, wanting them dead and/or boxed), the Hybrid (if it exists) may be in this faction, or work as an indy

D'Anna's Group: twos (Leoben), threes (D'Anna), and Athena, Caprica Six may be in this faction, or work as an indy.

This seems like a natural lore-based civ/mafia split, and brings the mafia team down to a more manageable size. Rico's claiming that LoRab had to be one particular role - and what are the odds? - or lynch her makes me think he had it out for LoRab, who turned out, imo, to be civ.

I'll continue working on some others...

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