RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's a combination of the emotion and logic. On one hand, I offered personal reasons. On the other hand, I offered a statistical trend that suggests that I am not the SK. Take your pick.

I want to be inspired. Roadblocks to that inspiration:

1. I also provided a very similar summary earlier in the game to evidence why the kills in this game aren't my type (when I talked with Epignosis about my Transistor kill motives). If you saw that, the potential for mimicry exists.

2. You suggested you've only killed Epignosis when the game depended on it. In this game, given the timing of Epi's kill, that'd seem close enough to me.

Why did you vote for me?

[Sloonei]

I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

[Sloonei]

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

I see no reason at all for anyone to fake an information claim at this stage in the game either. We can confidently assume that there are no more anti-town teammates left in the game. We just have a lone serial killer. As you said, it's a bit silly for a townie to fake having information on another player just to protect them. It's equally confusing for a serial killer to fake something like that. Sure they could do it for the WIFOM, but that's intensely convoluted.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.

[Sloonei]

Marmot: Thoughts on Quin, if you can!

[Sloonei]

I've got a 0% success rate when reading Quin as bad, but I'm warming up to the case against him anyway.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

I see no reason at all for anyone to fake an information claim at this stage in the game either. We can confidently assume that there are no more anti-town teammates left in the game. We just have a lone serial killer. As you said, it's a bit silly for a townie to fake having information on another player just to protect them. It's equally confusing for a serial killer to fake something like that. Sure they could do it for the WIFOM, but that's intensely convoluted.[/quote]

Theory:

I think the "easiest target" today, if there is such a thing, is INH. His inactivity this phase made it so, and frankly so has his tunnel-mania earlier in the game. Quin's hunting has led him to that target, and when confronted with a roadblock (Golden's treatment of INH), he had to provide a dubious assertion to justify maintaining his INH suspicion. That wouldn't be ideal.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've got a 0% success rate when reading Quin as bad, but I'm warming up to the case against him anyway.

Me too. I've suspected everyone this phase.

[Sloonei]

Vote Quin 2.0 while he's asleep.

[Sloonei]

What a glorious poll

[JaggedJimmyJay]

lmao

[Sloonei]

Note the (2) next to Quin's vote. He parked himself there at the start of the day and has not budged.

Everything's looking bad for Quin now, I can't stop.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

VOTE QUIN

chugga chugga chugga chugga choo choo

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd still like a response to my last thing, Marmot.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A Quin thing that looked genuine:

If we can collectively PoE this thing to two people (accurately) then town wins.

Golden is peeling me off of INH. They're not team mates so I don't know what nefarious motive he'd have for that.

I like Sloonei today. I think my current PoE is MM/Quin 2.0.

You would not believe the heaviness of the sigh I just let out reading this.

Like I said though. Me + reading emotions recently = turds

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hope Quin shows up before the deadline.

[Sloonei]

Jay
Golden
insertnamehere
Metalmarsh
Quin

[Sloonei]

I hope Quin shows up before the deadline.

The deadline is ~3 AM Australia time, I think.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hope Quin shows up before the deadline.

The deadline is ~3 AM Australia time, I think.

Balls. I hate the thought that you or MM are snaking by because you have the benefit of being here, while he doesn't.

I think the thing about his take on Golden and INH is the most inspired I've been today in a suspicion. I hate serial killers.

[Marmot]

I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.

Epignosis had taken a little heat on Day 1. Do you think Beck would still kill him knowing that?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You've voted Sloonei Marmot. What is the cause?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I can see Beck on Night 1 wanting to pick a target who was not at the forefront of any conversation (Boomslang) because Beck himself was not caught up on things and didn't want to risk a big mistake. I could also see Quin subbing in Night 2 and, on the assumption that the serial killer wants to kill Trump, taking a stab at the player doing the over the top Trump roleplay, Rico.

There's also the fact that Epignosis said nothing about Quin 2.0 and that makes it untraceable other than for someone to say this.

Epignosis had taken a little heat on Day 1. Do you think Beck would still kill him knowing that?

?

Beck was long gone from this game when Epignosis was killed. I don't follow.

[Marmot]

Note the (2) next to Quin's vote. He parked himself there at the start of the day and has not budged.

Everything's looking bad for Quin now, I can't stop.

Not necessarily. I don't know when he voted, but that just means his vote is the oldest of all the current ones.

Linki: lol, yeah I'm not sure what I was thinking with that post.

[Marmot]

You've voted Sloonei Marmot. What is the cause?

My vote was in a silly place anyway. As of this moment, I still think Sloonei's the way to go today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

The fact that INH has said nothing all day makes me think he's less likely to be a SK desperate for survival.

Is that dumb? Am I dumb?

No.

After I saw epi flip I thought sloonei was my most likely vote today, but the stuff sloonei has written on MM is persuasive. Quin seems least likely of the three to be SK (to me).

The difficult thing for me is sloonei's behaviour is like a guy who got town cred early then vanished into the shadows to not get NKed but also not take suspicion. I know it could be only rl stuff, but it also lines up. Now that we are only SK hunting, sloonei is back to take the lead.

On the other hand, sloonei feels genuine, and the stuff on MM makes sense. But, if sloonei is the sk, then of course it's to his advantage to find a case on someone else that looks solid fast.

And I know I don't have that much more time genuinely around to decide this.

Jay, quin, thoughts on sloonei as sk?

An ill-informed 'probably not' for Sloonei as the SK. He's been a consistent town read for me for some time. He's well invested in solving the game despite how busy he is, where I feel like a typical indie would coast a bit in that situation.

This actually reads like a canned answer. He cleared Sloonei for trying to solve the game throughout the game. I think that could apply to everyone alive to varying degrees.

I'm almost into the tunnel. Tunnel mode is nearly activated.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot, please talk to me about this:

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

BRB.

[Sloonei]

The good thing about today is that even if we're wrong we should still see another day.

also i am back

[Sloonei]

You've voted Sloonei Marmot. What is the cause?

My vote was in a silly place anyway. As of this moment, I still think Sloonei's the way to go today.

This is not an answer to the question.

[Sloonei]

quit your job, marmot!

[Marmot]

Marmot, please talk to me about this:

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

BRB.

I don't see what you see.

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

Linki: nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Sloonei]

Marmot, please talk to me about this:

I'd like to hear what you guys think of what I said about Golden and INH. I think INH looks like a suspect at face value, but Golden has almost mechanically removed him from suspicion. Do you disagree with that notion, and do you think my concern about Golden is more valid than tinfoil or more tinfoil than valid?

Golden's coming from an angle that suggests that he has information. I don't think he does, because he already questioned the possibility that I had information, but he's definitely playing that card. At the most I'm 'iffy' about reading him as the SK, because there's the potential in the back of my mind that maybe this is just Golden 2.0's way to get people to back off his top town read.

Potential problem:

Quin 2.0 asserts that Golden is at least trying to make it look like he has information on INH, and that he doesn't believe him on that front -- but he lists Golden as his top town read and INH as his top serial killer read. I'm not sure how this mindset can exist.

To think Golden is just making a big gamble by faking information as a townie to protect a player he merely reads as a townie in a critical scenario strikes me as dubious.

BRB.

I don't see what you see.

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

Linki: nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Quin suggests that Golden might be propagating the idea that he has information on INH, but Quin also expresses a town read on Golden despite his supposed belief that Golden is lying about something which a townie has no reason to lie about in a scenario like this one. It looks contrived.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

IMO, Golden scenarios in order of probability, starting with the most:

1. Golden is uniquely informed.

2. Golden is the serial killer.

3. Golden is a townie pretending to be uniquely informed.

[Sloonei]

Is it possible Golden is not uniquely informed and is not trying to cultivate the idea that he is, but people are just reading it as if he is?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Reminder of my initial theory that INH and leetic/Golden 2.0 had civilian BTSC.

I no longer believe this, but it doesn't have to be entirely wrong. There could still be a n0 peek, or a role check, or whatever other information to inspire at least one direction of this interaction.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Is it possible Golden is not uniquely informed and is not trying to cultivate the idea that he is, but people are just reading it as if he is?

Yeah, I forgot to include that. It'd be #1 or #2 I think.

Quin's take is distinct though: he is not uniquely informed, and he is trying to make it look that way.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm all in on Quin right now.

[Sloonei]

I do not think Golden is likely to show up before the deadline (timzones), so Marmot's vote right now is keeping this at a tie. I am assuming Jay no longer wants to vote for me because, look at me, I'm so town. SO, Marmot, leaving your vote there puts this critical lynch at the mercy of a coin flip. How do you feel about that?

[Marmot]

Quin does not believe Golden has information on inh, and his reasons are sound. Golden observed that Quin himself might have an info role, and Quin suspects inh. I don't find this dubious.

It's not his reasons for believing that which I find suspicious. I agree with them. It's that he thinks Golden is faking information about INH -- but he still trusts Golden the most and INH the least. That doesn't make sense to me.

I could see a reason for it, perhaps. I've seen faked information before (I think Boomslang did it in the GoC?).

There is only one SK left presumably, so Quin doesn't have as much need to make such a dubious comment. You make a good argument.



Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do you think this is the most suspicious thing you have seen today, or just the most recent?

Million dollar question.

I am going to say it is the most suspicious thing, yes. The case against you was already distorted from the start because of contextual flaws. The case against Sloonei was reliant upon a perceived contradiction that I could at least conceive of an answer to.

This one with Quin is more of a struggle. Maybe there's a magical answer and he'd provide it if he were here, I don't know. In my current brain state, I struggle to explain why he'd suggest Golden is deliberately pretending to have information while also calling him the most trustworthy player remaining.

[Marmot]

I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.

[Sloonei]

I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.

Why are you voting for me?

[Marmot]

I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.

Why are you voting for me?

You've made multiple comments about Ted Cruz being the SK. The first one was a response to Quin on Day 0. But the second one was unprovoked on this current day phase.

You were the one who sorted through the SK/mafia kills. Jay tried and G-Man frowned at him. You did it and got no such reaction.

[Marmot]

As a matter of fact, I'm ruling Jay out as being the SK based on that little tidbit.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I won't comment on things G-Man did for the sake of keeping the game in the proper spirit. I don't think Ted Cruz jokes make Sloonei look worse though. The first one especially was kind of there for the taking -- he just took the opportunity. :P

[JaggedJimmyJay]

This game has the most posts among active Syndicate games.

[Sloonei]

I could see inh having information on leetic after reading his Day 1 posts.

Why are you voting for me?

You've made multiple comments about Ted Cruz being the SK. The first one was a response to Quin on Day 0. But the second one was unprovoked on this current day phase.

You were the one who sorted through the SK/mafia kills. Jay tried and G-Man frowned at him. You did it and got no such reaction.

Okay. You also made a Ted Cruz comment Day 0, as I pointed out. And both of my Ted Cruz posts have 0 game significance. I think it is silly to base a vote off of those.

And perhaps G-man didn't respond to me because I was onto the truth, or because he doesn't like meddling in the affairs of us mortals too much. These are not strong reasons.

[Sloonei]

As a matter of fact, I'm ruling Jay out as being the SK based on that little tidbit.

Spoiler: show

me too

[Sloonei]

oh right, spoilers do that thing.