[ENDGAME] Seinfeld Mafia

[Nicol Bolas]

[Celeste]

That's what we needed right there.

[Julinook]

This was all I wanted to see. MVP and best role play.

[Julinook]

Interactive reads for days this night phase. My time will be limited so I need y'all to get on it.

[Paul Stevens]

VENGEANCE IS OURS! Estelle can rest in peace tonight. Now to get started on the rest of you hoodlums.

I honestly think George is a good target for the next lynch based on interaction reads with Jackie, and I'll tell you why:

George Costanza

Jackie Chiles
Cosmo Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry Seinfeld
Jackie Chiles
Elaine Benes
The Soup Nazi
Estelle Costanza
Frank Costanza
Estelle Costanza
Jerry Seinfeld
Elaine Benes
Uncle Leo
J Peterman
Jackie Chiles

Pretty even number of positive and negative stuff here. In contrast to my previous two analyses, this amount of 'vouching' makes me feel suspicious. Mafia know who's not bad, and I could see him finding it easier to be honest when giving opinions, if he's bad. On the other hand, Estelle was his biggest suspect, so why night kill her in that case? Where would that leave him?

That bit about Estelle now reads like pure covering. George never said anything about Estelle being his "biggest suspect." That's exaggeration by a teammate, buried in a long post with analysis of several others. Then, he later starts distancing from George, calling him his own strongest suspect.

[Nicol Bolas]

I'm totally anti-Steinbrenner now.

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

So you know who is bad, but it's in the vault?

J Peterman
4
33%


Voters: Uncle Leo, George Steinbrenner, Jackie Chiles, The Soup Nazi

George Steinbrenner was here after I posted what I did, and instead of considering the dump I took in the thread, he only voiced aggression and a threat, and left his vote on Peterman. Maybe he thinks I don't have any grace.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and Frank Costanza?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

ASSMAN! I'LL GIVE HIM ASSMAN!

*votes Kramer*

Now where did this vote come from? You criticize George, Elaine, Estelle... but then vote Kramer with no real explanation! Not to mention that this is a follower vote on someone I'm feeling pretty good about. Highly questionable behavior.

On another not, rereading Estelle's three posts, I find it satisfying to read them in her roleplaying voice. It works despite her admission that she doesn't know how.

Change vote: Frank

Jackie threw some poop at Frank on Day 1 because of his random Kramer vote. It was a very easy accusation to render. If I lean any direction here it's slightly in Frank's favor, but it's not an inspired lean.

Agrees with my suspicion of Frank, but not my suspicion of Estelle on Day 1.

He TMI'd the Estelle read. Perhaps he also TMI'd the Frank read.

Spoiler: show

Well, sure it's unique, because anybody paying attention knows that what your uncle said wasn't true, including you, since you could have tied it up. If I said I liked men but was a lesbian, that would be providing a unique perspective too, but would it be right? Would it be correct, Jerry?

This Benes woman is giving me fits, and not just because she's a Baltimore fan! Seems like she's picking a fight with Seinfeld just to pick a fight. Her argument has my head spinning. Big Stein's getting dizzy. Like riding on one of those carousels, trying to keep up. I never cared for those rides. Rollercoasters, those are okay. Very exhilarating. But a carousel just goes in circles, over and over and over. You never know when they're going to end. I can't figure out where the end of this argument is or where it's beginning either. She says Seinfeld is suspicious for appreciating input from his uncle, then she says he's bad because he voted for Newman. It's not making sense to me, I don't buy her conviction. But Big Stein doesn't see why a mobster would pick a fight like this either. Big Stein is confused, but he'll keep kicking!

I have to say that I find Mr Seinfeld's points about Ms Benes to far more convincing than this attack. This kind of latching-on to minutiae, accusation, and then hands-in-the-air confusion is the kind of base fearmongering that I expect to see from the Mafia. 5 out of 5 for roleplay though!

My top picks for lynch today: Steinbrenner, Frank Costanza, and... let's go with George as a distant third, because I haven't had a good feeling about that guy yet.

He listed Frank alongside Steinbrenner and George as preferred lynch options for Day 2. It isn't clear why.

Color-coded stances analysis

He noted that Frank consistently spoke ill of George, and separately in the Steinbrenner analysis he noted that Big Stein's Frank read had shifted frequently. One minor thing I draw from this:

I don't think the remaining mafia are Frank and Steinbrenner. I doubt Jackie would have tied his teammates together needlessly in this manner.

The specific four names he decided to focus on here align with the fake suspicions he'd stated previously.

Spoiler: show

George Costanza, Frank Costanza... Elaine Benes.

Just before he was offed, Jackie threw these names into the thread when I asked "who is bad?". He was in serious danger of being lynched at this point, so anti-spew should be considered -- but I don't struggle to believe he has comfortably nestled a teammate in there (which would imply a Costanza in 99.9% of universes wherein that assumption holds).

=======================

Frank's comments

Spoiler: show

If Elaine is telling the truth, we have a cut and dried case. If she's not, we at least get more intelligence from a Jackie flip than a Peterman flip. *votes Jackie*

Frank didn't mention Jackie a single time, as far as I can see, in this game until after Elaine claimed her tracking snare against him. Considering Jackie was vocally anti-Frank across multiple phases, this concerns me. It isn't uncommon for distancing to be a one-sided affair like this, because a mafioso being accused by a teammate has no internal fire to respond to those accusations -- their motives are already understood. It's harder to make a priority of that than it is to respond to critical civilians (as seen for example with Frank's consistent willingness to respond to my accusations).

This isn't ideal.

=======================

Conclusion

I don't think this does Frank any favors, and the last point concerns me considerably.

[Spooky Ghost]

VENGEANCE IS OURS! Estelle can rest in peace tonight. Now to get started on the rest of you hoodlums.

I honestly think George is a good target for the next lynch based on interaction reads with Jackie, and I'll tell you why:

George Costanza

Jackie Chiles
Cosmo Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry Seinfeld
Jackie Chiles
Elaine Benes
The Soup Nazi
Estelle Costanza
Frank Costanza
Estelle Costanza
Jerry Seinfeld
Elaine Benes
Uncle Leo
J Peterman
Jackie Chiles

Pretty even number of positive and negative stuff here. In contrast to my previous two analyses, this amount of 'vouching' makes me feel suspicious. Mafia know who's not bad, and I could see him finding it easier to be honest when giving opinions, if he's bad. On the other hand, Estelle was his biggest suspect, so why night kill her in that case? Where would that leave him?

That bit about Estelle now reads like pure covering. George never said anything about Estelle being his "biggest suspect." That's exaggeration by a teammate, buried in a long post with analysis of several others. Then, he later starts distancing from George, calling him his own strongest suspect.

Exaggeration by a team mate??

Now that I've gained a little bit of perspective back, I realize the Soup Nazi's been knocked down a few rungs on the suspect list, especially by Jerry and Uncle Leo.

Of those remaining, I hate to say it, but my gut says my son. It's just the kind of sick, twisted thing he'd do after putting her on his baddie list, especially after providing no reason. She was a suspect he couldn't defend if he got asked, so he knocked her off to avoid being asked about her. And he was even the last one seen at her bedside!

[Chuck]

You can probably tell I wasn't around for EoD by the fact that I didn't even close my restaurant. I told that no good cousin of mine Hassan to take care of it!

I would have reacted to the events, otherwise. Though not sure how I feel about women having power, but hey, America! The 90s!

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and George Costanza?




Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

It was my understanding that George Costanza poisoned his fiancée with envelope glue. Despicable, degenerate, deplorable! He'll get my vote.

Jackie placed an early Day 1 poop vote on George.

Spoiler: show

Jackie has been quiet.

Just catching up now, Mr Costanza. Sorry for my absence, but in Real Life I was hospitalized with a chest infection last night. I'm home now, and getting right back to business.

Jackie was gracious in his reception of George's little prod here. This exchange is a bit of a pinger.

Color-coded stances analysis

Jackie had a lot more to say about George than the other three people he stuck in this pile. He threw shade for George's history for "vouching", suggesting it may be indicative of TMI. It's plausible that Jackie himself was engaging in TMI here if George is his teammate. Relating to the point made by Frank, the portion about the Estelle kill is a little bizarre. I find myself wondering if this was an intentional dropping left by Jackie Con as a distraction, because it's really bad distancing if that's what it really is.*****

Spoiler: show

No problem, Mr Seinfeld. I used the time I had, and I had to stop. Just got home from the office, and I'm going to get back to it.

George Costanza looks the worst from my analysis so far.

He reinforces that George was the worst look in his analysis.

Spoiler: show

George Costanza, Frank Costanza... Elaine Benes.

His fake legacy mafia reads included both Costanzas and Elaine. If he stuck a teammate in here, it'd have to be a Costanza unless you're inclined to tinfoil on Elaine to the point of needing a restraint jacket. It's not necessarily true that he included a teammate.

===============

George's comments

Spoiler: show

It was my understanding that George Costanza poisoned his fiancée with envelope glue. Despicable, degenerate, deplorable! He'll get my vote.

Oh come on! Be sensible.

and since when did we ever trust an attorney

This turned into role play banter.

Spoiler: show

I'm feeling good about you people
Kramer
George Steinbrenner
Uncle Leo
Jerry
Jackie

I got bad feelings about you people
Elaine
The Soup Nazi
Estelle
Dad

I got no feelings about the rest of ya.

He felt good about Jackie on Day 1. I don't fault him for that, but here it is for analytic completeness.

Spoiler: show

what is this even.

You know, I did think it was rather farfetched that all four main characters of the show (George, Seinfeld, Elaine and Kramer) would RANDOMLY be picked as town. Kramer was town, I'm town, pretty sure I have good feelings about Jerry...so Elaine, as someone who roleclaimed and wasn't night killed, what's your deal?

Sure Estelle is dead. Yes, I felt peculiar about her. No, I didn't vote for her at any time. Suspicion arises. Everyone is suspicious at some point.

Jackie was a lot more vocal, and when he was, I had good feelings about him. He disappeared, he missed voting. I questioned it. What's up with that? How is it random? I liked the way Jackie was talking, I didn't like the direction Estelle was headed. I'm allowed to make judgement calls based on how I see them.

The green stuff isn't related to Jackie, but this is a good place talk about this separately. It's obvious that George's assertion is fallacious, and I'd expect any civilian to understand that. He said it anyway. I wonder if he is right, and he knows he is right because of his own alignment.

The orange stuff relates to Jackie. He explained his initial positive read on Jackie and his later prod about his having gone quiet. This was in response to accusations leveled upon him by Elaine. Apart from the fallacious green stuff, he was in a defensive posture here. I don't know that I like his tone.

Spoiler: show

Jerry Seinfeld
The Soup Nazi
Jackie Chiles
Uncle Leo
George Costanza
Tim Whatley
Frank Costanza
Elaine Benes
J. Peterman

I'd like to know what Jackie did to earn him a high spot on your list.

I'm not jealous or anything. Why would I be jealous?

George questioned Mr. Steinbrenner about his positive read on Jackie. It's a fair enough question in a vacuum, though I find myself wondering why I wasn't asked the same thing -- I also had Jackie in the green zone.

Spoiler: show

No problem, Mr Seinfeld. I used the time I had, and I had to stop. Just got home from the office, and I'm going to get back to it.

George Costanza looks the worst from my analysis so far.

Care to elaborate, Jackie? Perhaps I can ease your concerns if I had more content to go by and address your issues.

Well this is eloquent and congenial for a guy answering an accusation from someone he has expressed uncertainty about (as evidenced in the prior point re: Steinbrenner).

===============

Conclusion


I had more negative to say about George than positive. I am wary of the point marked with ***** though. He'd be an easy fall guy.

[November]

I'm totally anti-Steinbrenner now.

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

So you know who is bad, but it's in the vault?

J Peterman
4
33%


Voters: Uncle Leo, George Steinbrenner, Jackie Chiles, The Soup Nazi

George Steinbrenner was here after I posted what I did, and instead of considering the dump I took in the thread, he only voiced aggression and a threat, and left his vote on Peterman. Maybe he thinks I don't have any grace.

I didn't understand what the hell you were saying! It looked to me like you were claiming mafia and that didn't make sense. Things worked out well in the end though. You put in a hell of a case, Benes. That's the kind of work we need here in the Yankee organization.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and George Steinbrenner?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

Uncle Leo? That's a mobster's name if I've ever heard one! Big Tony, there's another. But I don't see a Big Tony here, and I don't trust this Uncle Leo. What's he hiding? Big Stein's getting nervous!

I find your assertion egregious, unscrupulous, and atrocious! A clear case of prejudicial name-alignment-assignment.

Jokes and banter.

Spoiler: show

Well, sure it's unique, because anybody paying attention knows that what your uncle said wasn't true, including you, since you could have tied it up. If I said I liked men but was a lesbian, that would be providing a unique perspective too, but would it be right? Would it be correct, Jerry?

This Benes woman is giving me fits, and not just because she's a Baltimore fan! Seems like she's picking a fight with Seinfeld just to pick a fight. Her argument has my head spinning. Big Stein's getting dizzy. Like riding on one of those carousels, trying to keep up. I never cared for those rides. Rollercoasters, those are okay. Very exhilarating. But a carousel just goes in circles, over and over and over. You never know when they're going to end. I can't figure out where the end of this argument is or where it's beginning either. She says Seinfeld is suspicious for appreciating input from his uncle, then she says he's bad because he voted for Newman. It's not making sense to me, I don't buy her conviction. But Big Stein doesn't see why a mobster would pick a fight like this either. Big Stein is confused, but he'll keep kicking!

I have to say that I find Mr Seinfeld's points about Ms Benes to far more convincing than this attack. This kind of latching-on to minutiae, accusation, and then hands-in-the-air confusion is the kind of base fearmongering that I expect to see from the Mafia. 5 out of 5 for roleplay though!

My top picks for lynch today: Steinbrenner, Frank Costanza, and... let's go with George as a distant third, because I haven't had a good feeling about that guy yet.

This was a pretty concrete and aggressive accusation made by Jackie against Steinbrenner on Night 1, followed by a designation that Steinbrenner is among his three top lynch options for Day 2.


Color-coded stances analysis

Jackie was kinder to Steinbrenner in this assessment than he was to the other three, based upon the amount of content and his willingness to shift his stance on Frank. This represents a distinct shift by Jackie himself on Steinbrenner. I'm brought to wonder whether this reflects Jackie realizing he doesn't have a decent argument to make against Steinbrenner, or a capitalization upon the decent credit Steinbrenner has earned in the public eye as the game has progressed. My intuition leads me to the former, but I grant the inherent bias in my own read on Steinbrenner.

Jackie confirmed that he was feeling better about Steinbrenner.

===============

Steinbrenner's comments

Spoiler: show

Uncle Leo? That's a mobster's name if I've ever heard one! Big Tony, there's another. But I don't see a Big Tony here, and I don't trust this Uncle Leo. What's he hiding? Big Stein's getting nervous!

I find your assertion egregious, unscrupulous, and atrocious! A clear case of prejudicial name-alignment-assignment.

I'm a fair man. I just call 'em like I see them. This Uncle Leo hasn't shown his face. What do we know about him? His name! I can't do much with that. You said yourself, we can't have a game if we don't have talking. Big Stein's talking about Uncle Leo, but Uncle Leo's not talking. What do you think he has to hide? Narcotics? Or is he a mob hitman? I try to keep my nose out of that business. I'm a Yankee through and through. But they're telling me I have to catch them here. Big Stein's pretty little nose is in it now! So I'm gonna put up a fight, let me tell you, Mr. Chiles! If Big Stein's going down he's going down swinging!

Steinbrenner's response to Jackie's earliest banter. It's a small moment I am not inclined to overanalyze -- at face value I don't think it looks suggestive of a teammate relationship.

Spoiler: show

Well, sure it's unique, because anybody paying attention knows that what your uncle said wasn't true, including you, since you could have tied it up. If I said I liked men but was a lesbian, that would be providing a unique perspective too, but would it be right? Would it be correct, Jerry?

This Benes woman is giving me fits, and not just because she's a Baltimore fan! Seems like she's picking a fight with Seinfeld just to pick a fight. Her argument has my head spinning. Big Stein's getting dizzy. Like riding on one of those carousels, trying to keep up. I never cared for those rides. Rollercoasters, those are okay. Very exhilarating. But a carousel just goes in circles, over and over and over. You never know when they're going to end. I can't figure out where the end of this argument is or where it's beginning either. She says Seinfeld is suspicious for appreciating input from his uncle, then she says he's bad because he voted for Newman. It's not making sense to me, I don't buy her conviction. But Big Stein doesn't see why a mobster would pick a fight like this either. Big Stein is confused, but he'll keep kicking!

I have to say that I find Mr Seinfeld's points about Ms Benes to far more convincing than this attack. This kind of latching-on to minutiae, accusation, and then hands-in-the-air confusion is the kind of base fearmongering that I expect to see from the Mafia. 5 out of 5 for roleplay though!

My top picks for lynch today: Steinbrenner, Frank Costanza, and... let's go with George as a distant third, because I haven't had a good feeling about that guy yet.

Attack? Who said anything about an attack? Big Stein wants every stone unturned. What do you make of Ms. Benes?

Ironically I'm not sure Steinbrenner answered Jackie's accusation very well here. The accusation itself was ill-motivated, we now know, but we can still judge the interaction. The potential for a cooked dialogue increases when the exchange doesn't flow in a way that would seem typical (and I don't think the brevity of Steinbrenner's retort is a typical response to a loud accusation like Jackie's). That's not ideal.

Spoiler: show

More distrust:
Jackie Chiles
Frank Costanza

What's not to trust about Jackie Chiles? He looks like a damn fine attorney from where I stand. Damn fine! If you have dirt on the man, my people and I wanna hear it, buster! The same goes for Costanza's father. I don't always see eye to eye with the man, there's no arguing that. But I still need to hear from you on the matter! You say you trust me. I like to think that I'm a trustworthy man. Somebody people can talk to. Big Stein's all ears! Tell me what you see in all these people. Lists of reads and names are better than nothing, but words are what we're here for!

This post may represent the loudest support offered to Jackie at any point in this game. If Steinbrenner is Jackie's teammate, he surely wasn't concerned about generating any distance.

Spoiler: show

I'll leave Elaine to answer to that. Come on folks, let's keep talking. I think we're in an okay place given the reduction of suspects, but we've still started with two civilian lynches. Let's turn it around.

I need this one. Do it for me. Today was my third time out with Gail and she still won't even shake my hand.

I'm not sure what else there is to say at the moment. Big Stein's not about flapping his gums! I choose my words very carefully, young man. When the sun comes up I want to make some folks squirm. Peterman and Old Man Costanza first of all, but they're not the only ones who should be on the hot seat, you hear me!? I suppose I can ask you what's the deal with this Jackie Chiles fella. He seems like he's working hard, but I haven't seen him do too much outside the mainstream. Afraid to rock the boat? I like his style, but he's not above speculation. He was on Puddy like Big Stein on Billy Martin! Makes me nervous. Not that I'm innocent in that department either, but I say it's worth looking into! We've got to shake things up if we want to climb out of the basement!

By Night 2 it appears Steinbrenner had become more concerned with Jackie, after his prolonged Day 2 absence. Here he prodded me to discuss Jackie a bit.

Spoiler: show

Jerry Seinfeld
The Soup Nazi
Jackie Chiles
Uncle Leo
George Costanza
Tim Whatley
Frank Costanza
Elaine Benes
J. Peterman

Green in the Day 3 rainbow, placed similarly to my own placement.

Spoiler: show

My people think Peterman is the surest bet today, and if he turns out to be rotten then there's a good possibility Elaine Benes has been helping him on the side. But we still need to hear more from everybody about everybody. I like what Whatley has been showing us today and I hope he keeps it up. Whatley, care to give me a report on Frank and Jackie? The Yankees appreciate your dedication to the cause today!

Steinbrenner prods Whatley to discuss Frank and Jackie. This prod is probably minor, but it does suggest to me that Frank and Steinbrenner are unlikely teammates (did I already suggest this elsewhere? I think I did) -- I don't see a good reason for mafia Steinbrenner to ask Whatley for a report on both of his teammates.

Spoiler: show

What does "willingish" mean and why is Jackie your strongest mafia read?

This poke was directed at Elaine prior to her tracker reveal.

Large ISO wherein Steinbrenner reconsiders the matter of Jackie

At face value I appreciate the effort here by Steinbrenner to challenge his own town read on a player who had fallen off significantly after a strong start. I don't think the points he makes appear cooked or otherwise troublesome, and I don't know that there would have been an imminent need for a mafia Steinbrenner to take this semi-turn on his teammate at this moment. It wasn't obvious to me that Elaine had big news coming at EOD, so I doubt he was preparing himself for that eventuality. In that regard it looks like an authentic civilian mindset at work to me.

Spoiler: show

So you know who is bad, but it's in the vault?

This was directed at Elaine immediately after her first reveal that Jackie had killed Estelle. This is going to need an explanation, Steinbrenner. I may have one already, but I want to hear it from you.

Spoiler: show

Do you want to be lynched, Elaine?

This one I don't have an explanation for. Mr. Steinbrenner, you just suggested that you didn't understand what Elaine was saying, and that "it looked like she was claiming mafia". Her preceding post literally was this:

Spoiler: show

Ms Benes. Are you suspecting me because you didn't like my method of analysis, or because I've been absent lately?

I'm suspecting you because of your ineptitude at eliminating the two-shot tracker.

Hi.

What's not to understand? How can this be interpreted as a mafia claim?

===============

Conclusion

There are some isolated moments worth questioning, and a number more moments that I like for Steinbrenner. That stuff at the very end of Day 3 though after Elaine's claim is pretty baffling, and it makes me hesitate to take anything else I said here seriously. Talk about it ASAP, Big Stein.

[November]

Elaine was a top suspect at the time and I didn't read a direct claim or accusation against Jackie. I believe you were hesitant to buy into her claim as well. Her comment about the tracker looked to me more like a general statement about the mafia team's ineptitude than a claim of her own, and I took it to be made out of frustration.

To get all of our cards out on the table, I am the cop. I checked Kramer on Night 1 and Frank on Night 2. He came back clean, but my presence means that there's also a godfather in this game. This is why I never believed Elaine's vigilante claim.

[Julinook]

Any reason in particular you didn't claim after your shots had been expended, or prior to now?

[Julinook]

Actually I'm not sure I care. You're the confirmed cop until someone else contests that claim.

[November]

Any reason in particular you didn't claim after your shots had been expended, or prior to now?

Same reason as Elaine. I wanted to see how the day would unfold and if any other claims would pop up. Plus, Frank was not at the center of any bandwagons so I felt no need to speak up on his behalf. I did hint at it earlier in the day though.

[November]

I wanted to do an interactive read between Jackie and Peterman, but in its entirety it amounts to this single post:

Mr Puddy, I find your comments about me to be slanderous, unsupported, offensive! Seems to me like you were put on the spot by Mr Seinfeld and filled in the gaps by scanning the player list to see whose name you could drop in there.

Furthermore, in regards to this statement:

I was asked my thoughts on Mr. Soup's most suspicious post. I think they are all suspicious except this one...

Look at these two goons distancing from each other. Deplorable.

They must be so irritated because they haven't had any soup today.

Ha-ha! Ha! Ha!

I found myself almost agreeing with you, until I realized you were telling us what you find unsuspicious! Personally, I took that as one of the Soup Nazi's more suspicious statements. Can you explain why you think this statement is so very unsuspicious?

Welcome, Mr Whatley! I seem to recognize you from an associate of mine, Saul Goodman... but maybe not. Face seems awfully familiar.

Who was it that made the comment about the Estelle and "villread"? I like it. Has experience, but is not using it.

Almost forgot about that one - if Mrs Costanza does have extensive Mafia experience, then she is certainly not attempting to use it.

and that's not even a meaningful interaction, just Jackie responding casually to a game observation made by Peterman.

[Julinook]

I might observe from that interaction that Jackie basically copy/pasted Peterman's comment and then rearranged the words a bit.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and J Peterman?



Jackie's comments

The one Officer Steinbrenner provided really is all there is to talk about. And I just talked about it. This doesn't make Peterman look terrible, but it doesn't help him either.

==================

Peterman's comments


They don't exist.

==================

Peterman must be read at face value essentially as before. He remains a valid enough suspect, though we can consider whether there's meaning to his having been a pseudo-counterwagon to Jackie's. It's probably more accurate to Jackie a counterwagon to Peterman than vice-versa.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with J Peterman and The Soup Nazi?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

I was asked my thoughts on Mr. Soup's most suspicious post. I think they are all suspicious except this one...

Look at these two goons distancing from each other. Deplorable.

They must be so irritated because they haven't had any soup today.

Ha-ha! Ha! Ha!

I found myself almost agreeing with you, until I realized you were telling us what you find unsuspicious! Personally, I took that as one of the Soup Nazi's more suspicious statements. Can you explain why you think this statement is so very unsuspicious?

Jackie implied he found a Soup Nazi post suspicious in a roundabout way when he was talking with Puddy. He didn't mention this suspicion of Soup Nazi prior. To me it looks entirely like a fake concoction to justify feeding the negative press on Puddy, making Soup Nazi an incident participant in this dialogue rather than a strategic participant.

=================

Soup Nazi's comments

Spoiler: show

Lawyer man

Dislikes baseless prodding, yet prods little man for lore. Hrmpf.
Decent pick on Costanza's baseless vote.
Vouches for Mrs. Costanza. Just like Steinbrenner!! What did I tell you?!
Dislikes Yankees mogul picking on nasty woman.
Decent rebuttal.

I disliked his early stuff, but don't have much on his recent bit. Worth a squint.

This analysis features both positive and negative commentary and ends with a soft negative stance. I don't think this works for or against Soup Nazi really.

Spoiler: show

Lawyer Man

A lawyer who has not shown up for work. Disgraceful.

But, whatever, let's pick this back up, since he still have less posts than I have cousins.

Picking it up from

*snipped same post previously spoilered for brevity*

Now, that vouch for Mrs. Costanza does stick out, but heck, there are a few voices overall, included me, who didn't suspect her. Could a point in his favor that the mafia took this as a sign that Mrs. Costanza is a safe removal. (Buuuut *tinfoil activation*...)

Squirts rainbows on players' suspicion - trust ratio. Not a fan of this approach's reliability and I sense he went too hard on Benes' bitchin', when Costanza Sr. and Yankeeman had only a few more trusted marks. Agree with him on tinfoiling Costanza Jr's contribution.

Plot thickens, as someone points yet another vouching for a deceased citizen (Kramer). Could Lawman here be this much of a safe parking mobster?

Insists on Costanza Jr. looking worst for him.

I suspect this is a material for him to arrive today and plant a vote on Costanza Jr. and nothing else - if he'll arrive to vote at all! There's nothing else to draw upon other that the players he had good vibes on keep dying. I don't think I'll entertain the conspiracy around this too much today, though.

Soup Nazi was conscious of Jackie enough that he felt the need to reassess in double-over fashion here, and I think it looks fine. The conclusion isn't especially grounded and "I'll get to this later" isn't necessarily inspiring -- but the language in this thing still resonates well with me.


=================

Conclusion


The worst I could say here is that there's strikingly little to talk about considering Soup Nazi's position in the post count ranking. That doesn't move me though, and I am comfortable retaining my civilian read on him.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with me saying typing the wrong name in my title? What's the deal with ruining the aesthetic bliss of my analyses?

[Nicol Bolas]

Oh my God, Jerry just slipped with the name of his other teammate!

HA HA ......... HA HA HA

[Julinook]

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles, Kenny Bania, and Tim Whatley?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

Welcome, Mr Whatley! I seem to recognize you from an associate of mine, Saul Goodman... but maybe not. Face seems awfully familiar.

Kay.

===========================

Bania's comments

Nope.

===========================

Whatley's comments

Nope.

===========================

Conclusion

[Larry David]

Boy, the reception from Burma was worse than I thought! Nearly lost my head (and patent leather loafers) yesterday.


Jerry, you did exactly what I said you would, but at least this time you managed to avoid offing a good banana and getting a bad one. Kudos on that job done. My friends, a toast! As the woolly-haired Melanesians of Papua New Guinea once said, "^^!^!^!^^^!!^!^!"

There's a lot to look at with this. What with reinstating myself to my original position and taking back my stock options from Elaine, I do hope I have the chance to look over it all more carefully.

[Nicol Bolas]

Elaine was a top suspect at the time and I didn't read a direct claim or accusation against Jackie. I believe you were hesitant to buy into her claim as well. Her comment about the tracker looked to me more like a general statement about the mafia team's ineptitude than a claim of her own, and I took it to be made out of frustration.

To get all of our cards out on the table, I am the cop. I checked Kramer on Night 1 and Frank on Night 2. He came back clean, but my presence means that there's also a godfather in this game. This is why I never believed Elaine's vigilante claim.

I had to borrow Jerry's Pez dispenser to figure this out, but there's only a 14% chance Frank is bad. Lynching the godfather next clears old man Costanza.

Looking ahead, if tomorrow doesn't work out well at all for whatever reason, it will be a 4-2 count after the kill, which is an even count with no margin for error. At that stage, I recommend a no-lynch to narrow things down to 3-2. If you choose to go that route though, don't make it a quiet time. Really get into people's faces.

[Julinook]

What's the deal with Jackie Chiles and Uncle Leo?



Jackie's comments

Spoiler: show

Uncle Leo? That's a mobster's name if I've ever heard one! Big Tony, there's another. But I don't see a Big Tony here, and I don't trust this Uncle Leo. What's he hiding? Big Stein's getting nervous!

I find your assertion egregious, unscrupulous, and atrocious! A clear case of prejudicial name-alignment-assignment.

This is technically a defense of Leo at the start of Day 1 even if in role play jokes. This is all he said about Leo.

=================

Leo comments

Nope.

=================

Conclusion

There's barely anything to talk about. He remains in the POE pool.

[Nicol Bolas]

Apparently, Jerry didn't have enough Pezzes. That should say 17%.

[Julinook]

Apparently, Jerry didn't have enough Pezzes. That should say 17%.

Could you show your work? I believe you, but I can't math right now. I just took a math test and my brain is melting. I just wanna make sure we're operating with the right numbers.

[Julinook]

Those analyses weren't the fountain of insight I hoped they'd be, which is the product of low-content players yet alive. Summary:

Almost certainly not a teammate of Jackie
Elaine Benes

Doesn't look like a teammate of Jackie
The Soup Nazi

Looks like a less likely teammate of Jackie
George Steinbrenner

Shrug
J Peterman
Tim Whatley
Uncle Leo

Look like potential teammates of Jackie
George Costanza
Frank Costanza

That's all purely with regard to the Jackie interactions. Now, if I account for role claims, scenario contexts, and general behavior in the thread as well:

Elaine Benes
George Steinbrenner
The Soup Nazi
J Peterman
Frank Costanza
Tim Whatley
Uncle Leo
George Costanza

[Chuck]

[Julinook]

I've been in a rut lately. I have been single for an entire day! I mean, Sandy Robbins from the pilot set is acting like my girlfriend to get into her Elaine role, but that doesn't count. I've got my eyes on a new girl though, Amy. George, let me know what you think of her. Be sure to wear your glasses.

[Julinook]

If it's unclear why I think better of Peterman now:

He placed his vote on me yesterday when he was leading the lynch clearly and I had no votes. I wasn't a likely lynch at all, and he didn't care. He stated his grievance with me and placed his vote accordingly. Moreover, he left his vote there all day long, probably expecting himself to be victimized or at least in grave danger. He didn't try to save himself at any juncture, and I think that's suggestive of a civilian low on time trying to promote the most genuine suspicion he had -- of Jerry Seinfeld, the guy who most vocally wanted him dead.

It's still a behavioral judgment and not concrete stuff, so I won't color him dark green for it. But it's a nice look I think and enough for me to prioritize other suspects well in front of him.

[Nicol Bolas]

Apparently, Jerry didn't have enough Pezzes. That should say 17%.

Could you show your work? I believe you, but I can't math right now. I just took a math test and my brain is melting. I just wanna make sure we're operating with the right numbers.

There are nine left. Frank is unemployed, because he isn't a cop or a tracker. That leaves seven. One in seven is 14%. I forgot to exclude the vanilla mafia he can't be if he was checked, so that makes one in six, which is 17%

Is it possible I'm not as mathematically strong as I think I am?

[Nicol Bolas]

If it's unclear why I think better of Peterman now:

He placed his vote on me yesterday when he was leading the lynch clearly and I had no votes. I wasn't a likely lynch at all, and he didn't care. He stated his grievance with me and placed his vote accordingly. Moreover, he left his vote there all day long, probably expecting himself to be victimized or at least in grave danger. He didn't try to save himself at any juncture, and I think that's suggestive of a civilian low on time trying to promote the most genuine suspicion he had -- of Jerry Seinfeld, the guy who most vocally wanted him dead.

It's still a behavioral judgment and not concrete stuff, so I won't color him dark green for it. But it's a nice look I think and enough for me to prioritize other suspects well in front of him.

If he's bad, what were his options if he never talked about Jackie?

[Julinook]

There are nine left. Frank is unemployed, because he isn't a cop or a tracker. That leaves seven. One in seven is 14%. I forgot to exclude the vanilla mafia he can't be if he was checked, so that makes one in six, which is 17%

Is it possible I'm not as mathematically strong as I think I am?

I think you're right, if the roles are viewed a priori. I charted it out just to make sure there are no weird things happening in the math. I think it's like this, if we assume the power role claims are legitimate:

[Julinook]

If it's unclear why I think better of Peterman now:

He placed his vote on me yesterday when he was leading the lynch clearly and I had no votes. I wasn't a likely lynch at all, and he didn't care. He stated his grievance with me and placed his vote accordingly. Moreover, he left his vote there all day long, probably expecting himself to be victimized or at least in grave danger. He didn't try to save himself at any juncture, and I think that's suggestive of a civilian low on time trying to promote the most genuine suspicion he had -- of Jerry Seinfeld, the guy who most vocally wanted him dead.

It's still a behavioral judgment and not concrete stuff, so I won't color him dark green for it. But it's a nice look I think and enough for me to prioritize other suspects well in front of him.

If he's bad, what were his options if he never talked about Jackie?

I don't think he'd have ever voted Jackie anyway because he wasn't present at the end of the day (and that wagon developed very late). I am referring to the earlier portion when the votes were pretty well spread. Peterman himself had 3 votes and then about 5 other people had one vote each. I wasn't one of them. He just stuck yet another solo vote on me (and I think I would have been a very difficult lynch to generate). He could have placed a second vote on any of those other players to improve his chance of survival, but prioritized his suspicion of me over that.

[Nicol Bolas]

If it's unclear why I think better of Peterman now:

He placed his vote on me yesterday when he was leading the lynch clearly and I had no votes. I wasn't a likely lynch at all, and he didn't care. He stated his grievance with me and placed his vote accordingly. Moreover, he left his vote there all day long, probably expecting himself to be victimized or at least in grave danger. He didn't try to save himself at any juncture, and I think that's suggestive of a civilian low on time trying to promote the most genuine suspicion he had -- of Jerry Seinfeld, the guy who most vocally wanted him dead.

It's still a behavioral judgment and not concrete stuff, so I won't color him dark green for it. But it's a nice look I think and enough for me to prioritize other suspects well in front of him.

If he's bad, what were his options if he never talked about Jackie?

I don't think he'd have ever voted Jackie anyway because he wasn't present at the end of the day (and that wagon developed very late). I am referring to the earlier portion when the votes were pretty well spread. Peterman himself had 3 votes and then about 5 other people had one vote each. I wasn't one of them. He just stuck yet another solo vote on me (and I think I would have been a very difficult lynch to generate). He could have placed a second vote on any of those other players to improve his chance of survival, but prioritized his suspicion of me over that.

How do you know he wasn't present? Just because you post doesn't mean you aren't present.

[Nicol Bolas]

In case I kick it, I don't suspect Frank at all. I have the merest eye-twich suspicion of Jerry. I don't suspect Stein. I mostly suspect Peterman (my suspicion of Jerry would increase if Peterman is bad, because this would mean Jerry loved Jackie and is now muting any suspicion of Peterman), and I mostly suspect George. The Soup Nazi is probably all right, even though he can blow it out his ass. Tim Whatley is yadda yadda yadda.

[Nicol Bolas]

No, Tim Whatley is on my good side for his vote. Plus good dental recovery when someone goes nuts on the Pez dispensor.

[Julinook]

How do you know he wasn't present? Just because you post doesn't mean you aren't present.

I suppose he could have been. He hadn't posted for a while at EOD and I can't see names down there.

[Julinook]

I'm also speculative of Elaine' s claim. Ever hear the tale of the boy who cried wolf?

Linki - I guess we'll see.

Elaine raises a good point about Whatley's vote. He didn't seem entirely convinced in the moment by the claim, but still made the sound vote which ensured at least a tie (once Jackie voted in self-preservation). That's a nice thing. He'd given himself an excuse to vote elsewhere if he wanted to, but didn't.

[Julinook]

In case I kick it, I don't suspect Frank at all. I have the merest eye-twich suspicion of Jerry. I don't suspect Stein. I mostly suspect Peterman (my suspicion of Jerry would increase if Peterman is bad, because this would mean Jerry loved Jackie and is now muting any suspicion of Peterman), and I mostly suspect George. The Soup Nazi is probably all right, even though he can blow it out his ass. Tim Whatley is yadda yadda yadda.

How d'you feel about Leo?

[Tangrowth]

Night 3

Spoiler: show

While on his way to the airport for his move to Argentina, The Soup Nazi was murdered in a horrific car accident.



The Soup Nazi has been killed.

He was Ricochet and...

Spoiler: show

Vanilla Civilian

It is now Day 4.

You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

[Julinook]

Okay then. I'm going to hope that was an ill-advised attempt to cast suspicion upon Elaine and Steinbrenner, because it'd make me chuckle.

Later Soupochet.

[Nicol Bolas]

No soup for any of us.

That was the most boneheaded kill I've ever seen.

[Nicol Bolas]

This does increase Frank's chance of being mafia to 20%, however.

*eats another Pez*

[Nicol Bolas]

George, your hair IS FAKE.

[Julinook]

Sure I'll do a George vote.

[November]

Sure I'll do a George vote.

You announced towards the end of Day 3 that you would not be voting for George. I assume that your interactive read between George and Jackie has a lot to do with your change of heart. What are the key points at the root of your George suspicion. Why is he your preferred lynch right now over everyone else?