[ENDGAME] Seinfeld Mafia

[Julinook]

I'm not good enough at this game to be a mafioso with this post history. Big posts are easy. Real emotion and solving urgency are not.

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't have time to go into specific posts and whatnot, so here I am trying to generalize.

Reasons to vote for Jerry
1. The night killings have been very random. It makes me feel like it can't be someone who is extremely involved in the game... Or is it a set up? How can someone like Jerry ensure he isn't held suspect when he's one of the most outspoken members of the game and not being killed? By throwing everyone off guard, random unexplainable night kills and keeping other outspoken players alive so he doesn't look like that odd one out. Makes sense to me and entirely plausible if we consider him an experienced player--play as if you're a townie and make random killings and try to analyze them as though you were a townie.
2. Self-confidence. He's very vocal, very loud. God father trait, nothing to worry about, probably hasn't been sending in the kills either and after Whatley died he went and killed Elaine (the tracker) so that no one can bust him at any time and after already fitting into the God role itt, he's almost guaranteed victory since he's cast agreeable suspicion on literally every other player except Big Stein. After my lynch, someone's going to die, probably Leo. Then it'll be lynching Peterman/Frank.
3. The Puddy ordeal. He screamed Puddy for days, and when people actually listened, he started backtracking a little. He made it seem like a Puddy lynch wasn't what he actually wanted, even though he initiated it. He came at me for the very same reason re: my Leo votes, despite actually unvoting him when I felt Leo was genuine after the self-vote fiasco. He's done the same with Peterman unsuccessfully, and after I'm lynched I can assure you he'll be all over Peterman again.

Some reasons that make me question my vote:
1. He's been generally helpful, contributed a great deal. Had no problems effortlessly lynching his team mates, but we've seen that sort of heartlessness before so I won't give him all the benefit of the doubt but just a little.
2. There's more but I want to post this to give people Food for Thought that lynching me today is not in your best interest. I want this to be a townie win gosh darn it!

Reasons to make me question my vote:
His reacting to Leo's self vote. It was a bit of shock and general negative towards it possibly being a scum move. He seemed to question it as much as anyone else. Reaction was very genuine. If an act he deserves an oscar.

[Principal Skinner]

I'm responding to things right now.

[Principal Skinner]

this is brief because of the time

george:
To me, the outlying votes are a way to obscure motivations and make a read harder. IMO, that’s what makes it “distinctly bad.”

Why does everyone have distinguishable trust in Jerry and what Jerry says? Is he a confirmed PR and I didn't know about it? How many times has he been wrong in his suspicions? I mean, you can trust that someone isn't mafia and you can assume someone is, on your own instincts, but until you see the cards flip, everyone is suspect tbh.

I agree with this 100%.

Some reasons for voting Frank:
…
2. I noticed that Frank didn't once comment on being ID'd civ by our cop or use it as a defense at any time until a brief post late Day 4. This further pushes my theory above at how the scum team was slightly disconnected from every day happenings.
…

Some reasons that make me question my vote:
That Whatley post to Leo at the eleventh hour. I don't quite know what the purpose was behind it. Was Whatley hoping to get a Frank lynch going on before the tables turned on him? It may seem like a minor and moot point, but it's made me question my suspicion.

I appreciate this particular point. I hadn’t considered it.


Jerry - if I switch (back) to Frank and he is innocent, who is at the top of your list tomorrow?
Same question to you, George

I am still uncomfortable with a JP vote. George agrees with me on that so perhaps I should move to Frank and then see if George reneges on that claim, I could be more certain placing a vote for him.

[Julinook]

Tomorrow will demand another reassessment if necessary. My first guess would be Peterman gun to head. He'd be the only one left for whom I cannot provide any inspiring civilian argument and have no strong feeling for.

[Principal Skinner]

George and Peterman are about even in my mind. I'm voting for George because that's where the other votes are. I'm confident that it's one of those two, but I do not know which one. I wouldn't hate splitting the votes between them if we can't reach a consensus.

Jerry, with what you know about Steinbrenner and how he has played the game thus far, would you be willing to wager that he supports the move to Frank?

[Spooky Ghost]

I'd like to know what the argument for Peterman and not Frank is from Big Stein.

I'd like a bullet point list of why Peterman from anyone. 3 reasons.

[Principal Skinner]

I don't know if this is relevant. Soup died on Night 3. This was a Day 3 post.

....

Now that I've gained a little bit of perspective back, I realize the Soup Nazi's been knocked down a few rungs on the suspect list, especially by Jerry and Uncle Leo.

Of those remaining, I hate to say it, but my gut says my son. It's just the kind of sick, twisted thing he'd do after putting her on his baddie list, especially after providing no reason. She was a suspect he couldn't defend if he got asked, so he knocked her off to avoid being asked about her. And he was even the last one seen at her bedside!

He realizes Soup is no longer a suspect so Soup is worthless as far as adding to the confusion and thus Soup becomes a target for N3 kill? It doesn't make sense because either way the Soup kill is not a good one.

[Principal Skinner]

I'd like to know what the argument for Peterman and not Frank is from Big Stein.

I'd like a bullet point list of why Peterman from anyone. 3 reasons.

Changing back to Frank based on this post. It's tough (I believe ) to come up with this as mafia. I hope.

[Spooky Ghost]

If Frank is town, I'll vote for either Jerry or Peterman. I'll have more time to analyse Jerry's post history during the night if I am not lynched today. I still think it's Frank. Peterman still strikes me as townie. Jerry has a lot of question marks but he has genuine reactions and urgency going for him.

It's hard to call at this moment beyond not feeling it about Frank.

[Tangrowth]

Day 5 Vote Tally

Frank Costanza
4
57%
Voters: J Peterman, Jerry Seinfeld, Uncle Leo, George Costanza

George Costanza
2
29%
Voters: Frank Costanza, George Steinbrenner

George Steinbrenner
0
No votes
Voters: None

J Peterman
0
No votes
Voters: None

Jerry Seinfeld
0
No votes
Voters: None

Uncle Leo
0
No votes
Voters: None

*UNVOTE*
0
No votes
Voters: None

*NO LYNCH*
0
No votes
Voters: None

Jake Jarmel (host, deadies, non-players)
1
14%
Voters: MovingPictures07
Total votes: 7

Missing votes: N/A

[Tangrowth]

Day 5

Spoiler: show

Frank is dead. HOOCHIE MAMA! HOOCHIE MAMA!



Frank Costanza has been lynched.

He was Boomslang and...

Spoiler: show

Vanilla Civilian

Spoiler: show

It is now Night 5.

You have 24 hours to send in night actions.

[Spooky Ghost]

shit man. Sorry dad. Please don't kick me out of the house.

[Principal Skinner]

(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻

[Spooky Ghost]

It's between Peterman and Jerry tomorrow for me and I'm sure I'm on most people's lists too, with Peterman. It's nearly 3am. I'll try to fill up tomorrow with as many contributions as I can before end of night (but im going to dinner and cinema tomorrow night so will be earlier and back before end of night) in case I'm killed but we can still win this. We have it narrowed down. It's going to be 3 vs 1. We can do this.

[Julinook]

Shitty.

I'm home now and can actually think things through at a reasonable pace instead of having to frantically speed through on a dying phone. That was infuriating.

Most important thing to me: Big Stein's perspective on George's EOD5 (and generally George's legacy reads when under the heaviest lynch pressure). If those are believable, then it's Peterman and we're still perfectly fine.

Essentially, my two-man POE shifted from George-Peterman to Frank-Peterman in light of that development, and I moved to the player more likely to be lynched under the circumstances.

[Julinook]

Also important:

I am not a fucking mafioso. I have given everything I can give to this game despite terrible time constraints, and it has actually hampered my ability to handle my real-world responsibilities as well as I should. This game started poorly for the civilians, but we sparked our way back into the contest and I want to see it end properly. I have fought tooth and nail to get us there.

If I get lynched because of end game tinfoil, it will be an absolute travesty and I refuse to let that happen if I can help it. If you have your suspicions, fine, state them. If I deem it prudent, I'll answer them (the most important thing is finding the bad guy, not wasting time fending off tinfoil arguments).

There's a reason both Elaine and Steinbrenner stopped paying attention to me as a potential suspect. The Soup Nazi kill wasn't some strategic ploy, it was a stupid kill. Someone who is paying attention (I clearly am), and someone who has a lot of playing experience (I clearly do) doesn't make that kill. It's not WIFOM. It's not ermagerd what if????? It's obvious because it's true.

[Julinook]

I don't care if I'm wrong about Peterman and he is the godfather. There is genuinely not enough content or even context through other mafiaers to warrant my total suspicion of him. He's going to be second or third on my list, following my look into Jerry (a brief one since I don't have much time, fuck a Saturday evening).

Do you think it makes sense for a suspect to be relegated to the bottom of the pile simply because they have the fewest posts (and thus the fewest opportunities to raise suspicion)?

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't care if I'm wrong about Peterman and he is the godfather. There is genuinely not enough content or even context through other mafiaers to warrant my total suspicion of him. He's going to be second or third on my list, following my look into Jerry (a brief one since I don't have much time, fuck a Saturday evening).

Do you think it makes sense for a suspect to be relegated to the bottom of the pile simply because they have the fewest posts (and thus the fewest opportunities to raise suspicion)?

No. But when you have a top suspect with reasons (as I did Frank...reasons that made sense in my head), and when you're this close to being lynched, you're not really looking deeply into third and fourth level suspects.

I will reassess everyone.

[Spooky Ghost]

(the most important thing is finding the bad guy, not wasting time fending off tinfoil...

Says the guy who has not gotten off my back since Day 1 before I even posted...

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't care if I'm wrong about Peterman and he is the godfather. There is genuinely not enough content or even context through other mafiaers to warrant my total suspicion of him. He's going to be second or third on my list, following my look into Jerry (a brief one since I don't have much time, fuck a Saturday evening).

Do you think it makes sense for a suspect to be relegated to the bottom of the pile simply because they have the fewest posts (and thus the fewest opportunities to raise suspicion)?

Why Peterman and not you?

[November]

[Spooky Ghost]

I'd like to know what the argument for Peterman and not Frank is from Big Stein.

I'd like a bullet point list of why Peterman from anyone. 3 reasons.

[November]

I'd like to know what the argument for Peterman and not Frank is from Big Stein.

I'd like a bullet point list of why Peterman from anyone. 3 reasons.

Frank's tunneling of you was not believable as a scum tactic, and his last post on Day 4 was to proclaim Peterman as the least likely scum player among the non-confirmed. If he was scum, Peterman would have been the first person he'd be pushing for.

[Julinook]

I don't care if I'm wrong about Peterman and he is the godfather. There is genuinely not enough content or even context through other mafiaers to warrant my total suspicion of him. He's going to be second or third on my list, following my look into Jerry (a brief one since I don't have much time, fuck a Saturday evening).

Do you think it makes sense for a suspect to be relegated to the bottom of the pile simply because they have the fewest posts (and thus the fewest opportunities to raise suspicion)?

Why Peterman and not you?

I can make the same assertion as prior, and it can be drawn as parallels from your own posts:

The Soup Nazi kill is made by a player who doesn't know what's going on. I know what's going on. I have had tabs on this thread at all times. To accuse me of making that kill is to accuse me of some elaborate scheme to solidify my "town credit" despite the fact that I already had a huge pile of town credit. This is a classic example of "but but you could have been... [insert tinfoil]. "Could" should mean much less than "would" or "should".

If I'm mafia, Elaine and Steinbrenner are both dead before Soup Nazi. Anything else is a poor decision.

Peterman hasn't known what's going on at any juncture of this game.

[Spooky Ghost]

Your second point is accurate but I took into consideration his absence from the thread and being out of touch on who is scummy according to the rest of us (like when he claimed everyone suspected the Soup Nazi then retracted it) so I didn't take it for granted that it cleared him.

[Spooky Ghost]

I don't care if I'm wrong about Peterman and he is the godfather. There is genuinely not enough content or even context through other mafiaers to warrant my total suspicion of him. He's going to be second or third on my list, following my look into Jerry (a brief one since I don't have much time, fuck a Saturday evening).

Do you think it makes sense for a suspect to be relegated to the bottom of the pile simply because they have the fewest posts (and thus the fewest opportunities to raise suspicion)?

Why Peterman and not you?

I can make the same assertion as prior, and it can be drawn as parallels from your own posts:

The Soup Nazi kill is made by a player who doesn't know what's going on. I know what's going on. I have had tabs on this thread at all times. To accuse me of making that kill is to accuse me of some elaborate scheme to solidify my "town credit" despite the fact that I already had a huge pile of town credit. This is a classic example of "but but you could have been... [insert tinfoil]. "Could" should mean much less than "would" or "should".

If I'm mafia, Elaine and Steinbrenner are both dead before Soup Nazi. Anything else is a poor decision.

Peterman hasn't known what's going on at any juncture of this game.

Following this reasoning, why would I have killed The Soup Nazi?

[November]

This massive post is a comprehensive account of my thoughts RE: all of you. I came out of it believing firmly that Peterman is scum. Nothing has changed my mind, but doubts about George have become more prevalent. I'll have more to say after I've read this EOD phase.

[Julinook]

Following this reasoning, why would I have killed The Soup Nazi?

Prior to Day 4, your involvement in this game was sporadic and inconsistent (which facilitates a lesser-developed understanding of events in the game). The kill occurred on Night 3.

[Spooky Ghost]

Up until a couple of hours ago, I had 4 votes against me as the last scum, yours included, Jerry. You didn't discredit me because of The Soup Nazi target. I like to think I'm an active participant here, though not in the several hundred posts category yet. Telling me you can't be scum because you wouldn't have killed Soup Nazi, because it's insulting to assume you would--well it's insulting to me too.

[Spooky Ghost]

Sporadic? I've followed up and contributed every day. At which point in my posts did I come across misinformed?

[Spooky Ghost]

Yes I could have been more active, but I certainly read every single post in here before contributing.

[Julinook]

Up until a couple of hours ago, I had 4 votes against me as the last scum, yours included, Jerry. You didn't discredit me because of The Soup Nazi target. I like to think I'm an active participant here, though not in the several hundred posts category yet. Telling me you can't be scum because you wouldn't have killed Soup Nazi, because it's insulting to assume you would--well it's insulting to me too.

I don't think the Soup Nazi kill directly implicates you. I haven't had a reason to eliminate you from being capable of it though -- not because I think you're a bad player (I don't), but because anyone who hasn't maintained a constant presence in this thread is capable of oversight.

Let's consider this though: if you agree that the kill is such a bad one that you'd be insulted by the accusation of having been a part of it, then very well. That means that when you accuse me of being mafia, regardless of the specific nature of your accusation, you are asserting that I was a part of that kill.

With that in mind, can I be mafia? Does it make any sense?

[Spooky Ghost]

If I'm alive, I'll be voting Peterman.

no doubt about it Jerry's "Also important" post reads very sincere. If he is lying to me, I'll retire mafia.

I just wanted to wind him up right now to give him a taste of his own medicne. SEE WHAT YOU PUT ME THROUGH EVERY DAY OF MY SEINFELD MAFIA LIFE JERRY?! George is petty. You know that.

[November]

My most confident read in the game right now is that Jerry is town.

[Julinook]

If I'm alive, I'll be voting Peterman.

no doubt about it Jerry's "Also important" post reads very sincere. If he is lying to me, I'll retire mafia.

I just wanted to wind him up right now to give him a taste of his own medicne. SEE WHAT YOU PUT ME THROUGH EVERY DAY OF MY SEINFELD MAFIA LIFE JERRY?! George is petty. You know that.

I do what an analyst must do. I haven't the intuitive superpowers that some boast. I need data, data, and more data -- and sometimes people have to be annoyed to make that happen.

If you're lying, then I'm already a world-class boob and deserve a dunce cap for blowing the game at the end of Day 5. It'd be one of my worst moments as a player.

[Julinook]

I'm going to attempt to describe what went through my mind as I 14%ed my way through EOD5, specifically relating to George.

[Julinook]

As I read through the things George was throwing into the thread toward the end, I was asking myself two questions over and over:

1) Does this post have legitimate legacy value and does it look like an attempt to leave a legacy, or is it a no-quit mafioso doing what it takes to survive under dire circumstances?

2) Does this post represent negative utility for a mafioso?

George suspects Jerry Seinfeld

The vote is 4-George and 2-Frank. Jerry has spiritual control over the lynch, as Leo has pledged to vote with the majority for team cohesion, and Steinbrenner is away. George is aware that if he is to survive, he has to move my vote and/or Leo's vote.

So he called me scum. Or at least he called me second-most scummy.

To me, this looks like a distinct "yes" answer to question #2. Tinfoiling on me in that moment isn't the best way to move my vote (barring a very accurate crystal ball in George's possession). In theory it should be a sure way to leave my vote where it is, which suggests to me that it might imply the answer to question #1 is "this is a legacy read".

This spoke to me more loudly than Frank's vouch for Peterman did.

[Spooky Ghost]

[Julinook]

Loneliness and cheese

[November]

So... Peterman?

[Julinook]

So... Peterman?

That's what I think, yes. However, if you read the George material he posted or I posted about him and don't agree with my conclusion, feel free to say so. Feel free to tell me I am a poop head too.

[November]

I'll review things later. Mr. Steinbrenner insists that I remain focused on Game 7 right now though. Our dear Yankees are in a hole right now, it's just dreadful.

[Tangrowth]

I'll review things later. Mr. Steinbrenner insists that I remain focused on Game 7 right now though. Our dear Yankees are in a hole right now, it's just dreadful.

I'm quite fine with it myself.

[November]

Big Stein is inconsolable.

[November]

That game was a real heartbreaker, love-taker, shoemaker.

[DrWilgy]

Lets go 'stros!!!

[November]

Some reasons that make me question my vote:
1. He was there when Elaine self-proclaimed vigilante on Day 2. So following my line of thought in #1 above, despite her claim being bogus, it was suspicious. If I was scum, and I saw it, I would have most likely targeted her on Night 2, unless I was attempting to frame her but even then I would have targeted her Night 3 instead of Night 4 - especially when she claimed she wasn't out of shots.

I do not think this point should be applied to Peterman, but George's application of it makes me feel a bit better about them. The mafia team knows that there is no vigilante in this game from the start. They have a godfather, and according to the matrix, this means the town power roles must be a 2-shot tracker and a 2-shot cop. The entire mafia team (presumably) would have known Elaine's vig claim was bogus from the start. I think this contributed to her survival in the game.
On the flip side, George is making this observation, and the thought process appears genuine to me. This feels like an earnest assessment of George's reasons for and against a Peterman vote yesterday. That this thought existed in his mind tells me that he had not considered the point, and thus was not aware of the falseness of Elaine's first roleclaim at the time it happened.

[November]

So... Peterman?

That's what I think, yes. However, if you read the George material he posted or I posted about him and don't agree with my conclusion, feel free to say so. Feel free to tell me I am a poop head too.

As of right now, I agree with your conclusion. I'd like to know how everyone else is feeling as well.

[November]

The George vs. Peterman argument for me hinges on how each of them was treated by the other two mafia. Jackie and Whatley both avoided Peterman completely until he was looking like a slam dunk lynch, for the most part. But they also both started to "suspect" George at around the same time, in a game in which George has professed to being stretched thing on time and energy. I could potentially see that as a behind the scenes agreement to bus their struggling teammate for credit.
The second point feels like more of a stretch, and I don't think the Whatley/Bania pairing was much better off than George at the start of the game, so for the team to agree to bus a player who was far from their least active member seems to be lacking in a bit in strategy.

Also the simple fact that George's contributions have been much stronger in this game. If it comes down to a coin flip, I'd rather lose to George's 100+ posts than Peterman's 17. I don't think we'll need a coinflip.