RED vs. BLUE: Endgame

[Marmot]

Yellow: I don't know why you're bringing up Sloonei again.

Sloonei is the only player who I know was nightkilled by the SK (and Epignosis I suppose). I know we've hypothesized on the other nights, but I don't recall the conclusion we came to.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My overall analysis on Jay is... that my biggest hang up, which is the rico/golden kill day, makes a whole lot more sense if all the sk needs to do is kill Trump, which could be the case. It might seem worth the risk, given how strongly Rico was roleplaying. That's a lot of assumptions, but it is at least an explanation that has some logic.

"Trump" is the only explanation that makes sense for Sloonei too, and it doesn't have to apply to me more than anyone else. If that's what the serial killer is after, then it's what the serial killer is after.

Again, I encourage you to review the end of Day 1 again. That makes no sense for a serial killer JJJ. Please make that a priority point of focus.

[Golden]

Yellow: I don't know why you're bringing up Sloonei again.

Sloonei is the only player who I know was nightkilled by the SK (and Epignosis I suppose). I know we've hypothesized on the other nights, but I don't recall the conclusion we came to.

Sloonei came up with a pretty good analysis based on which kills were attributed to 'operation cobalt'.

@Jay - will do.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yellow: I don't know why you're bringing up Sloonei again.

Sloonei is the only player who I know was nightkilled by the SK (and Epignosis I suppose). I know we've hypothesized on the other nights, but I don't recall the conclusion we came to.

I know that. What I mean is that you crammed the Sloonei argument into an argument about something else. You keep forcing Sloonei against me as if it's not applicable to yourself in all the same ways.

Do you maintain that a serial killer has no informational advantage in judging Golden and INH over a townie?

[insertnamehere]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Do you have questions about anything, INH?

[Marmot]

Yellow: I don't know why you're bringing up Sloonei again.

Sloonei is the only player who I know was nightkilled by the SK (and Epignosis I suppose). I know we've hypothesized on the other nights, but I don't recall the conclusion we came to.

I know that. What I mean is that you crammed the Sloonei argument into an argument about something else. You keep forcing Sloonei against me as if it's not applicable to yourself in all the same ways.

Do you maintain that a serial killer has no informational advantage in judging Golden and INH over a townie?

Well I kinda have too. There aren't really any "great" arguments to be made against you, so I have to make do.

I guess I've forgotten the fact that yes, a SK that is living with no mafia around will know who all the civilians are. The conclusion I pointed out to you is one I came to. An SK wouldn't need that thread information to come to that conclusion though. A townie would.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Well I kinda have too. There aren't really any "great" arguments to be made against you, so I have to make do.

I know there aren't. I'm not a serial killer.

I guess I've forgotten the fact that yes, a SK that is living with no mafia around will know who all the civilians are. The conclusion I pointed out to you is one I came to. An SK wouldn't need that thread information to come to that conclusion though. A townie would.

One does not "forget" one of the most basic concepts in Mafia. A serial killer knows that other people aren't serial killers.

You didn't "need" thread evidence. You talked about it very briefly, immediately after I presented my own theory, and never really paid any serious attention to the matter. You knew they were townies already.

[Marmot]

One does not "forget" one of the most basic concepts in Mafia. A serial killer knows that other people aren't serial killers.

I remember the things that are directly related to my role, not other people's.

[Golden]

Apologies, haven't had time to do much but pop in briefly today, will post thoughts tomorrow.

I thought MM came out of yesterday's lynch looking worst even with Sloonei alive, and MM being bad is what makes most sense to me. But with what time I have tomorrow I want to really consider Jay objectively because I've spent so much game in defense of him that I recognise its possible he could have me suckered.

I look forward to it. This has turned into a dichotomy, and you've put more effort into defending inh than determining your final vote.

To be fair, I think that was important.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One does not "forget" one of the most basic concepts in Mafia. A serial killer knows that other people aren't serial killers.

I remember the things that are directly related to my role, not other people's.

That's kind of the point.

MM knows MM is the serial killer.

"Are Golden or INH a serial killer?" is never a sincere thing in your brain.

Golden and INH look like they might have BTSC.

They probably do.

Whereas for Mr. Townie:

Golden and INH look like they might have BTSC.

I'm not sure though, and I am concerned about this possible angle Golden might be pursuing...

*tinfoil*

[Golden]

I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.

Can you point to where you are an anti-town solo sk faction in another game?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.

Can you point to where you are an anti-town solo sk faction in another game?

Unfortunately the only example is RYM #26, which isn't something I can link you to anymore. I was similar to a SK, though closer to a demo man. I was an LMS independent though. In that game I think my post count was among the leaders; it definitely wasn't significantly higher than the rest.

Maybe you could say RYM #87 when I was converted by aether into a werewolf. You were there for that one. I was only an independent for one day though and I was doomed from the moment I was converted.

[Marmot]

One does not "forget" one of the most basic concepts in Mafia. A serial killer knows that other people aren't serial killers.

I remember the things that are directly related to my role, not other people's.

That's kind of the point.

MM knows MM is the serial killer.

"Are Golden or INH a serial killer?" is never a sincere thing in your brain.

Golden and INH look like they might have BTSC.

They probably do.

Whereas for Mr. Townie:

Golden and INH look like they might have BTSC.

I'm not sure though, and I am concerned about this possible angle Golden might be pursuing...

*tinfoil*

I don't know how you could come to that conclusion correctly as a civilian. They trust each other. There is likelihood of information. It is unfathomable that one of them is the real SK as a result.

A SK is unlikely to rely on thread evidence because he doesn't need it. You did not rely on it coming into this day phase because you didn't need it to know that they were civilian.

[Golden]

I have never done that in a non-town role. So you can consider this a significant tip-off. If I am obliterating the post count, I am almost certainly pro-town. If I am merely leading it or among the leaders, there's a better chance I'm anti-town. Use it against me in some future game if you like.

Can you point to where you are an anti-town solo sk faction in another game?

Unfortunately the only example is RYM #26, which isn't something I can link you to anymore. I was similar to a SK, though closer to a demo man. I was an LMS independent though. In that game I think my post count was among the leaders; it definitely wasn't significantly higher than the rest.

Maybe you could say RYM #87 when I was converted by aether into a werewolf. You were there for that one. I was only an independent for one day though and I was doomed from the moment I was converted.

Yeah, I don't count that one.

I was there. I was the bomb. Literally. It might have been your first look at my town instincts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't know how you could come to that conclusion correctly as a civilian. They trust each other. There is likelihood of information. It is unfathomable that one of them is the real SK as a result.

A SK is unlikely to rely on thread evidence because he doesn't need it. You did not rely on it coming into this day phase because you didn't need it to know that they were civilian.

This post says it all, Marmot. It's completely backwards.

You're saying a townie shouldn't have a reason to suspect one of them of being a serial killer. You're creating the image that the Golden/INH interaction was so undeniable and obvious that an uninformed townie would have no reason to suspect either of them at all. That's not how being town works. A townie doesn't know anything, and he has to make judgments based upon what he sees -- and he has to pursue clarification and expansion. That's why I continually asked Golden and INH about each other, and why I continually posed theories about their relationship. I was working it out the only way I could.

The mindset you're attributing to a hypothetical townie only makes sense for a player with information external to the thread -- in this case a serial killer.

[Golden]

I've just read the last two pages and, as it stands, I find Jay's arguments much more convincing than Marmot's.

I find myself reading them and going 'that makes total sense'. I read marmots and think 'thats what he would have to say if SK'.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Here's the problem in a nutshell, Marmot. This post exists.

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

A townie cannot know conclusively what INH's motive for posting this is. He has to try to discern that motive. He has to decide what that means about Golden too.

A serial killer knows INH and Golden are town already so it's moot.

[Marmot]

I don't know how you could come to that conclusion correctly as a civilian. They trust each other. There is likelihood of information. It is unfathomable that one of them is the real SK as a result.

A SK is unlikely to rely on thread evidence because he doesn't need it. You did not rely on it coming into this day phase because you didn't need it to know that they were civilian.

This post says it all, Marmot. It's completely backwards.

You're saying a townie shouldn't have a reason to suspect one of them of being a serial killer. You're creating the image that the Golden/INH interaction was so undeniable and obvious that an uninformed townie would have no reason to suspect either of them at all. That's not how being town works. A townie doesn't know anything, and he has to make judgments based upon what he sees -- and he has to pursue clarification and expansion. That's why I continually asked Golden and INH about each other, and why I continually posed theories about their relationship. I was working it out the only way I could.

The mindset you're attributing to a hypothetical townie only makes sense for a player with information external to the thread -- in this case a serial killer.

That's exactly what I said. I made a judgment based on what I saw. That information was crucial to my read and my mindset going into Day 5.

[Marmot]

I've just read the last two pages and, as it stands, I find Jay's arguments much more convincing than Marmot's.

I find myself reading them and going 'that makes total sense'. I read marmots and think 'thats what he would have to say if SK'.

Of course you fucking do. Supatown!

[Marmot]

Here's the problem in a nutshell, Marmot. This post exists.

INH 'something does not have to give'. You can feel free to vote for 3J but you won't convince me to join you. I'm not going to expend effort convincing you that you are wrong.

Yup, this sure is the model of a civilian BTSC partnership, 3J.

Good read.

A townie cannot know conclusively what INH's motive for posting this is. He has to try to discern that motive. He has to decide what that means about Golden too.

A serial killer knows INH and Golden are town already so it's moot.

I don't know why this post is important to you. It is WIFOM, and inh would deny it whether it's true or not.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's exactly what I said. I made a judgment based on what I saw. That information was crucial to my read and my mindset going into Day 5.

That's what you can claim, but it doesn't show. There's insufficient evidence in your posts that it was something you were really thinking about in any serious capacity. The evidence that I was thinking about it is all over my posts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't know why this post is important to you. It is WIFOM, and inh would deny it whether it's true or not.

It's important to me because I don't have the answers. If I am trying to decide whether INH and Golden have BTSC, and one of them abjectly denies it -- you bet that's relevant to my thought process. And now it's become evident to me that it reflects a difference between INH's Mafia style and my own -- which is something Golden was trying to tell me I am pretty sure. He was concerned with avoiding night kills, but I had no way of knowing that with certainty. I had to consider all the possibilities.

[Golden]

I've just read the last two pages and, as it stands, I find Jay's arguments much more convincing than Marmot's.

I find myself reading them and going 'that makes total sense'. I read marmots and think 'thats what he would have to say if SK'.

Of course you fucking do. Supatown!

Feed my paranoia, marmot!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be exceedingly clear, if I am in civilian BTSC with someone else and another person correctly guesses that in the thread under the same circumstances -- I don't deny it. I probably don't talk about it at all. I just leave it there. INH approaches the game differently, and that's fine.

But I can't know exactly what he's doing.

[Marmot]

I tried so hard. I did everything as well as I could. Yet here I am, getting lynched, because I just can't do it well enough.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I tried so hard. I did everything as well as I could. Yet here I am, getting lynched, because I just can't do it well enough.

Marmot pulling at the heartstrings.

You have played a magnificent serial killer game man, seriously. You've made yourself a candidate to repeat with the Best Indy socky. Winning in that role is not easy at all, and your effort has been splendid. I respect that.

[Marmot]

Tell me Jay, why would I pick a game where I roll an SK role to actually work my ass off for the civilian cause?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tell me Jay, why would I pick a game where I roll an SK role to actually work my ass off for the civilian cause?

Certified WIFOM Bucket Metalmarsh laid an egg in his most recent game and hopes to have a stronger performance this time around.

[Golden]

Read Boomslang - he agreed with some of Jay's posts. Jay could have had an early town read on him (thus an early candidate for who Trump could be), but also had less reason to want him dead. He didn't interact with marmot at all, so there's nothing there to analyse.

That's me for now, again, but I'll do some more before I decide to go to bed.

Marmot - please tell me if there are any specific things you point to why you are not the SK that you would like me to revisit before making a final decision, thank you.

Jay, I will read day one of you.

I have to be realistic, I can't do everything.

[Marmot]

Read Boomslang - he agreed with some of Jay's posts. Jay could have had an early town read on him (thus an early candidate for who Trump could be), but also had less reason to want him dead. He didn't interact with marmot at all, so there's nothing there to analyse.

That's me for now, again, but I'll do some more before I decide to go to bed.

Marmot - please tell me if there are any specific things you point to why you are not the SK that you would like me to revisit before making a final decision, thank you.

Jay, I will read day one of you.

I have to be realistic, I can't do everything.

This

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jay, I will read day one of you.

I have to be realistic, I can't do everything.

If it helps, I'll lay out my own argument. You can consider it as you read that stretch to best understand what I am trying to convey.

I joined Sloonei in a CFD attempt against INH at the very end of Day 1, and I loudly pursued the votes of other players to get that bandwagon into lynch range. If I am a serial killer, this decision serves me no meaningful benefit but leaves me with numerous disadvantages depending upon the results:

1.) If the CFD on INH is successful and he gets lynched and flips TOWN, I look like a doofus and my chance of being lynched increases.

2.) If the CFD on INH is successful and he gets lynched and flips SCUM, I look like a hero and my chance of being night killed by the mafia increases.

3.) If the CFD on INH fails and Scotty flips TOWN, it is a lateral move which nets me no meaningful benefit or disadvantage.

4.) If the CFD on INH fails and Scotty flips SCUM (reality), I look like a megadoofus and my chance of being lynched significantly increases.

The only option here that isn't objectively bad is #3, and as a SK I have no way of knowing whether that will be the reality. To take a chance on that late CFD based upon this sole possibility is a terrible strategic decision that I would not make as a serial killer. #4 is the one that ended up happening, and the results are visible. I led the tally late on Day 2, and was only kept alive by the Quin 1.0 wagon. I was tied for the tally lead at the end of Day 3, and was only kept alive because G-Man's coin flip was friendly to me.

These are positions I don't have to put myself in. It's lose-lose-null-lose.

[Marmot]

I've also made crucial late-day-phase votes in every single lynch thus far, which has led to the lynching of two mafiosa (and every lynched player as a matter of fact).

[Golden]

And your response to the answer 'the win is that you are meeting Jay-meta' is 'No-one practiaclly notices the difference between me doing 250 and 750 posts, so I don't have to do 750 posts, so I don't have to be vocal at a day end'?

What if I asserted that you had to post significantly higher numbers of posts than you might have liked to because of the pressure you were under for much of the game?

[Golden]

I've also made crucial late-day-phase votes in every single lynch thus far, which has led to the lynching of two mafiosa (and every lynched player as a matter of fact).

Why wouldn't you do this when SK?

[Marmot]

I've also made crucial late-day-phase votes in every single lynch thus far, which has led to the lynching of two mafiosa (and every lynched player as a matter of fact).

Why wouldn't you do this when SK?

I probably would to an extent. I generally make useful votes, and would try to match that meta as a SK. But as a SK, I wouldn't have the urgency to do so.

[Marmot]

Also, I'm basically confirmed town.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And your response to the answer 'the win is that you are meeting Jay-meta' is 'No-one practiaclly notices the difference between me doing 250 and 750 posts, so I don't have to do 750 posts, so I don't have to be vocal at a day end'?

What if I asserted that you had to post significantly higher numbers of posts than you might have liked to because of the pressure you were under for much of the game?

That accounts for a lot of my posts, sure. Remove all of them and I am still obliterating the post count ranks.

[Marmot]

GALLON OF FAT-FREE MILK JAGGEDJIMMYJAY

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've also made crucial late-day-phase votes in every single lynch thus far, which has led to the lynching of two mafiosa (and every lynched player as a matter of fact).

Why wouldn't you do this when SK?

I probably would to an extent. I generally make useful votes, and would try to match that meta as a SK. But as a SK, I wouldn't have the urgency to do so.

On Day 1 you voted last in an interaction directly with me. I pushed you to vote for INH, and you refused me. You refused me while simultaneously casting shade on me.

On Day 2 you were present late, and given the suspicions faced by other people already -- voting off-wagons is not a way to play it safe. It gets people into trouble. You consciously avoided doing that.

On Day 3 you were the first on your own wagon, and you knew I'd follow it.

On Day 4, the order of voting is irrelevant because only a SK remained and both of the main wagons were on townies.

[Marmot]

inh, do you have a dog in this fight, or have you already won?

[Golden]

I would really have liked some input from inh, but I guess I won't be around for end of day so I'll miss anything he's got.

Here is what I think after meeting both Jay and MM's requests.

I think you have both said things that you believe to be true. Jay doesn't believe he would take big risks and draw attention to himself when anti-town. MM doesn't believe he would kill epi except when it is necessary.

However, what I see really just confirms my thinking that it's MM. Jay's thing, for me... I don't actually believe it's necessarily true. I think Jay is aware enough of his own game that he would take risks in a role like the serial killer. But I believe that Jay believes it to be true right now, it comes across as very genuine, and Jay could not both believe it to be true and simultaneously actually be the sk and be doing it.

MM also is telling the truth about epi, but what he has more or less made clear is that there are exceptions, and those exceptions are where it is necessary. I could see a situation where MM thought he had either found Trump or believed epi to be the last baddie and believed that removing him was necessary to clear the way for his own win. I also think in the situation where MM feels that it is necessary, he can fall back on his meta and that's something he would know in advance.

Trying to make sense of the kills from MM's perspective - Boomslang and Rico there is really no reason for MM not to kill them. Epi I've dealt with already. That leaves sloonei.

MM killing sloonei doesn't really make sense, but then neither does Jay. It has to be Trump hunting. My theory is that if MM thought that inh and I were not trump, he wanted to leave alive the person that he thought would most likely be willing to lynch either myself or inh ahead of him, and that would be Jay more than sloonei. Not much of a theory, but I don't really have much better from any perspective about sloonei.

So, in the end, I'm happy with my vote where it is. If I've been bamboozled by Jay supatown, well played Jay. But seriously, marmot, you've been supatown too so well played to you, I think you are the one and I wouldn't have caught you if not for PoE. Whichever of you it is, you've played it exceptionally well.

It will be interesting to see where inh's lands, though. I'm not convinced he will necessarily follow me

[Marmot]

For what it's worth, I'm not the big T.

[insertnamehere]

For what it's worth, I'm not the big T.

*votes Metalmarsh*

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Y'all have made the right choice.

[Marmot]

Y'all have made the right choice.

For you.

[Marmot]

Let this be a lesson to you all that JaggedJimmyJay is a sly, silver-tongued octopus, and that's why he's still alive today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I may be on octopus, but it's the innocent and noble kind.

[insertnamehere]

Let this be a lesson to you all that JaggedJimmyJay is a sly, silver-tongued octopus, and that's why he's still alive today.

To be honest, if you didn't explicitly say that you weren't Trump, I may have voted 3J.

[Marmot]

Let this be a lesson to you all that JaggedJimmyJay is a sly, silver-tongued octopus, and that's why he's still alive today.

To be honest, if you didn't explicitly say that you weren't Trump, I may have voted 3J.

I don't get the whole deal about Trump, and it's a little frustrating.

Why does it matter if I'm Trump or not?