Pirate Mafia [END GAME]

[colonialbob]

We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.

Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).

[Dragon D. Luffy]

We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.

Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).

You don't know if Kyle is a townie or not. Unless you're bad.

And lynching a townie would have been better than what we did now (no lynch twice and basically hand free kills to the mafia). At least we had a slight chance of hitting mafia if Kyle was mafia.

Now we don't know if him, me or anyone else is mafia. And we are heading to lylo having to lynch right twice in a row.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Also, we should look at Daisy's posts for any hints on who she protected day 1. Basically whoever is her #1 civ read from day 2 onwards is probably confirmed civ.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

[colonialbob]

We should look at the two replacements (Jack and Bob)

Their vote tracking is abysmal. One has pretty much abstained so far and the other hopped onto the "Worst Move a Civvie Could Possibly Made" lynch and I like to believe he is experienced enough at this game not to do that.

Granted, they are not the only ones, but I think we have been paying too much attention to people who have been around since day 1.

Correction - one wanted to lynch you, that wasn't happening, and he went no lynch because he thought kyle was townie from what he'd seen.

Also I hate not having a track of vote trains. One of my favorite analyses and it's essentially impossible here, so I'm having to come up with new strategies to read people (made harder by the fact that I haven't been here from the start).

You don't know if Kyle is a townie or not. Unless you're bad.

And lynching a townie would have been better than what we did now (no lynch twice and basically hand free kills to the mafia). At least we had a slight chance of hitting mafia if Kyle was mafia.

Now we don't know if him, me or anyone else is mafia. And we are heading to lylo having to lynch right twice in a row.

I didn't say I knew, I said I thought. And yeah, it probably was a bad move. My vanilla game is weak and atrophied, I'll freely admit that. I was actually contemplating a fakeclaim today, but then Daisy died and that plan got shelved quickly. So now it's back to reading through the MP lynch and seeing if I can figure out if somebody is bad.

[Kylemii]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

Really love this sentiment. 3-4 people who weren't around at the end of the lynch phase and also not there during a lot of the discussion period come by to criticize the choice that was made during it.

[Kylemii]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

Really love this sentiment. 3-4 people who weren't around at the end of the lynch phase and also not there during a lot of the discussion period come by to criticize the choice that was made during it.

Yes I do.

This is mafia. Criticizing other people's choices is what this game is about.

You can criticize my own moves all you want. Vote for me for them, either. But you are not taking my right of criticizing yours.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Yes, I blame myself for not being here during the last 2 hours to smack everyone in the face for failing at this game on such a fundemental level.

Though I'd be lying if I had said it came to my head "I need to stay at home or they might No Lynch"

But that doesn't mean I can't point my finger at you and figure out which one of you guys is the baddie who was going along as the civs shot themselves in their feet.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Alright, Speedchuck, you're next.

I'm on no-lynch.

Discussion is crap, protection role is alive, current numbers say we'll gain an extra day (one less number will put us at Lylo rather than Mylo if we no lynch and continue as normal). Math checks out. Logic checks out. Kylemii is giving me good feels.

Anybody around and up for it?

This is the post where you argue about voting No Lynch.

1 little, 2 little, 3 little MP posts
4 little, 5 little, 6 little MP posts

Actually, a no lynch gives town some time to get free info if there is an info role. Quick math:

No lynch:
D1: 10 players
D2: 9 Players
D3: 7 Players
D4: 5 Players
D5: 3 Players (LYLO if 1 scum)
D6: Scum overrun if we get here and game isn't over.

Lynch on D1:
D1: 10 Players
D2: 8 Players
D3: 6 Players
D4: 4 Players (MYLO if one scum)
D5: 2 Players Scum overrun if we get here and game isn't over.

So in each case, ignoring D1 on the no-lynch side, town gets the same number of days to try and lynch the scummers. No matter how many scum there are. For every scum, take off a day's worth o' time. See how it works? An' the No Lynch D1 gives townies more info on their allotted lynch days.

HOWEVER!

This only works perfect if'n we got no doctors, vigs, or scumblockers. So I'm more inclined to lynch a scallywag on the bright and early day.
Long Con, what say ye ta that?

Shiver me timbers if'n I ain't about to throw a vote on me swabbie Dunya, fer the brine'd do 'im good I reckon!

linki: I am a cat. I swat at people until they respond, and then run away.
I kid. I have no idea what my gameplay style is. I've been told it's analytical, with a lot of chewing over motive and vote placement.

Because the only thing that happens is that you give mafia an extra night kill, and then you are back next day with no extra information and one less civ alive.

It may give the cop an extra investigation yes, but the cop shouldn't reveal right away anyway so day 2 usually doesn't have anything new, and the cop could die before they reveal so the risk may be not worth it.

+1 to this analysis.

You don't lose a whole lot by D1 no-lynch, since the extra night kill just puts you at Lylo instead of Mylo. But the trade-off doesn't net you anything either, so you might as well keep that extra number advantage in your wheelhouse for later.

Who knows, a doc might pull through and give us an entire extra day. That won't happen if we give mafia an extra kill.

HOWEVER!

In these two posts you show you were aware this is only a good move if there is an even number of players left, and only if there are no doctors to stop the kill.

So later you went and voted no lynch with an odd number of players left, contradicting your previous logic.

Please elaborate on what made you do a 180° in your previous logical reasoning.

[sprityo]

put me in coach

I’m the star player, the head honcho, the whole enchilada

The Big Mac

[Jackofhearts2005]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.

Even if Kyle is town, it's still a bad move to go no lynch over lynching Kyle.

We gave the kill choice to the mafia and they picked Daisy. We could have lynched suspicious Kyle, which would be preferable in the endgame.

He doesn't get a free pass either. Like the other no lynch voters, his vote only helps him if he's bad.

[Kylemii]

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

[Sloonei]

Day 4 poll added to the first post.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.

[Kylemii]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.

Even if Kyle is town, it's still a bad move to go no lynch over lynching Kyle.

We gave the kill choice to the mafia and they picked Daisy. We could have lynched suspicious Kyle, which would be preferable in the endgame.

He doesn't get a free pass either. Like the other no lynch voters, his vote only helps him if he's bad.

That's actually a kind of weird line of reasoning. How do you figure that?

There were only two choices. One where I die and one where no one dies. Had I chosen the other one the situation would be the same only with one less player alive and still no new information gained.

Also... not to put too fine a point on it the whole "hey, lack of participation is poison" thing but, I was 100% ready to die until the only person online at the time told me it was better not to.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

No lynch is a godawful move 99% of the time.

It seems the civs in this game need to lose it to learn that, though.

No lynch was a desperation move that saved both my life and technically yours, 4/7 of the thread was gone so it was the only viable option.

You are excused from it in my book because you needed to save yourself.

The other two are not.

Even if Kyle is town, it's still a bad move to go no lynch over lynching Kyle.

We gave the kill choice to the mafia and they picked Daisy. We could have lynched suspicious Kyle, which would be preferable in the endgame.

He doesn't get a free pass either. Like the other no lynch voters, his vote only helps him if he's bad.

That's actually a kind of weird line of reasoning. How do you figure that?

There were only two choices. One where I die and one where no one dies. Had I chosen the other one the situation would be the same only with one less player alive and still no new information gained.

Also... not to put too fine a point on it the whole "hey, lack of participation is poison" thing but, I was 100% ready to die until the only person online at the time told me it was better not to.

You are oversimplifying it.

You were being lynched. People came online. Speed was arguing with you for a while, and Bob came later. Around the time, you and speed could have started a lynch on any of the people I mentioned in the post above, and bob could have followed.

If you are a civ, your order of priority should be, from worst to best:

- you get lynched
- no lynch
- EVERYTHING ELSE

If you are a civ, you should have been pursuing the "everything else" scenario.

Jack has a point. It's possible that you went a logn with a no lynch because you have a teammate and wanted to protect them.

[speedchuck]

Please elaborate on what made you do a 180° in your previous logical reasoning.

Stupidity and doctor role messing with my head. That plus not really wanting to lynch DDL or Kyle, and being refuted/checked on my math while I was really sick and tired.
Nice job copying my format btw.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

Please elaborate on what made you do a 180° in your previous logical reasoning.

Stupidity and doctor role messing with my head. That plus not really wanting to lynch DDL or Kyle, and being refuted/checked on my math while I was really sick and tired.
Nice job copying my format btw.

I get creative when I'm scumhunting.

[Kylemii]

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.

I didn't suspect any of those three, I suspected you and speedchuck.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

In mean, creative as in copying a format for the lulz. Not creating a format. You get it.

[speedchuck]

Speed, I have a good idea of your opinions on DDL and Kyle at this point in the game. Tell me about your opinions on them now.

DDL doesn't look good on votes, but I'd eat my hat if he wasn't town. Kylemii has seemed sort of sketchy, but also very earnest and genuine.
I'd put Kyle above null, and DDL as moderate town.

How did we come to the point where we no-lynched twice?

We haven't.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

And it wasn't the one viable option. You could have voted for literally anyone else.

3 votes for me, one vote for you one vote for you, 19 minutes left. Speedchuck, who had a vote on me wasn't willing to vote for you. Cbob showed up out of nowhere. What would you have done?

I'm at the shelter rn but I'll be back later to review some stuff

You could have voted for Jack, Sig or Daisy, assuming you needed all three to make a consensus.

I didn't suspect any of those three, I suspected you and speedchuck.

But lynching someone you don't suspect is still an infinitely better move than no lynching.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

We haven't.

Not yet, but it is looking like the best move.

Though you can argue whether it's better to do it now or in Day 6. Upside of doing it now is that there are less people to pick from next day. Downside is that we'll be dealing with s scenario where the remaining two baddies can easily push a lynch on a civ as long as 1 civ votes for each other.

Upside of doing it later is that we avoid that and don't provide such an easy way out for the baddies. But we have to get it right today with a 1/3 chance, instead of a 40% chance tomorrow.

[Kylemii]

If you are a civ, you should have been pursuing the "everything else" scenario.

I was pursuing an everything else scenario for the entire day phase, DDL, but no one else was playing. A couple votes thrown down but no discussion was happening at all basically starting immediately after Dunya's death. I tried to drum up discussion I eventually decided that my death was probably beneficial to the town because it would at least hopefully kill the complacency and get people to discuss and play again, but then speedchuck convinced me that that wasn't the right thing to do.

Cbob was only there near the very very end, with just speedchuck there my options were to accept death or to convince speedchuck who has been defending DDL for most of the game to vote to lynch him instead of me. Speedchuck talked me out of dying and I remembered that no lynching is technically an option. We voted there and made it a tie and when Cbob showed up I asked him to vote to save my life.

It was a desperation move made necessary by neglected civvie resources (mainly discussion) and maybe it was the wrong move but you would be saying the same thing if I'd let myself be lynched too. I did everything I could.

[colonialbob]

I should also probably say I voted speedchuck and and as of right now plan to vote into speedchuck/ddl/kyle

[speedchuck]

We haven't.

Not yet, but it is looking like the best move.

Though you can argue whether it's better to do it now or in Day 6

Uh, are we at MYLO now?

[Jackofhearts2005]

We haven't.

Not yet, but it is looking like the best move.

Though you can argue whether it's better to do it now or in Day 6

Uh, are we at MYLO now?

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention]
[mention]colonialbob[/mention]


Yes!

I have no idea why anyone is voting or contemplating voting for anyone.

There are no more power roles. A mislynch is a mafia win.

[Jackofhearts2005]

[mention]Dragon D. Luffy[/mention] [mention]speedchuck[/mention]

Can you walk me through your Day 1 Wilgy votes? Wilgy would have been my top town read at EOD 1.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Kyle's best point as a townie is being on MP at the end of day 1.

[colonialbob]

[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention]

Though you can argue whether it's better to [go no lynch] now or in Day 6. Upside of doing it now is that there are less people to pick from next day. Downside is that we'll be dealing with s scenario where the remaining two baddies can easily push a lynch on a civ as long as 1 civ votes for each other.

Upside of doing it later is that we avoid that and don't provide such an easy way out for the baddies. But we have to get it right today with a 1/3 chance, instead of a 40% chance tomorrow.

[colonialbob]

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?

[Jackofhearts2005]

We have too many suspects. There are some people playing weak townie games, my slot included. Even if someone not seriously being looked at right now (Sig, Bob, me) gets killed, that is still super helpful right now imo.

[colonialbob]

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?

A) We still had a power role
B) It wasn't punting as much as "lynch Kyle or nobody and I was thinking Kyle was Town"
C) yes I screwed up and have already acknowledged that

[colonialbob]

We have too many suspects. There are some people playing weak townie games, my slot included. Even if someone not seriously being looked at right now (Sig, Bob, me) gets killed, that is still super helpful right now imo.

How? At best it's WIFOM. More likely it's just the same stuff tomorrow but with one less unaccounted vote.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Not even sure if I should post my rainbow at this point.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?

A) We still had a power role
B) It wasn't punting as much as "lynch Kyle or nobody and I was thinking Kyle was Town"
C) yes I screwed up and have already acknowledged that

A) We had a jailkeeper or a doc. The fuck does that make going no lynch any better? If they stopped a kill, we wasted our extra day.

[Jackofhearts2005]

We have too many suspects. There are some people playing weak townie games, my slot included. Even if someone not seriously being looked at right now (Sig, Bob, me) gets killed, that is still super helpful right now imo.

How? At best it's WIFOM. More likely it's just the same stuff tomorrow but with one less unaccounted vote.

If you were scum, we wouldn't know. Same for me. We just don't have enough content.

Sig is reading a high yellow on my rainbow. He's not so much good as just not bad. If he's bad, we're in trouble.

The other three all have taken super suspicious actions (esp Speed and Kyle) and could easily be bad.

Any eliminated suspect is a good thing.

[colonialbob]

I'm not willing to totally punt today for at best a 7% better chance at lynching mafia. In fact if they hit somebody we'te not looking at today it doesn't really help our chances at all.

But punting yesterday was okay?

Why?

A) We still had a power role
B) It wasn't punting as much as "lynch Kyle or nobody and I was thinking Kyle was Town"
C) yes I screwed up and have already acknowledged that

A) We had a jailkeeper or a doc. The fuck does that make going no lynch any better? If they stopped a kill, we wasted our extra day.

That reasoning should be mostly B and C, with a dash of A. And if the power role stops a kill that's somebody they know isn't mafia (if doctor) or info on somebody who's town or mafia (if JK).

But again I'm skeptical of somebody who wants to just go no lynch from the get go today.

[colonialbob]

I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.

Realms D1 and Mylo are two wildly different things.

You're arguing not to make a pit stop a good chick of the way into the race because you wouldn't do it on the first lap.

Mathematically, going no lynch is the correct option, made that way by the mistakes/tricks of players yesterday.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Actually, I already know what Speed will say and am unconvinced. I wanna hear from DDL.

[colonialbob]

I'm treating this like a typical Realms D1. If we end up on no lynch organically, fine. But by assuming it from the start we're missing out on a chance at gathering info.

Realms D1 and Mylo are two wildly different things.

You're arguing not to make a pit stop a good chick of the way into the race because you wouldn't do it on the first lap.

Mathematically, going no lynch is the correct option, made that way by the mistakes/tricks of players yesterday.

I'm not engaging this line of argument any more, because it's sidetracking from anything productive.

[Jackofhearts2005]

So let's be productive. Tell me about your vote.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Dragon D. Luffy TOWN
dunya TOWN
Kylemii SCUM
Long Con SCUM
MovingPictures07 SCUM
NewTraditionalist SCUM
Quin TOWN
sig TOWN
Spacedaisy TOWN
SpankGangsta SCUM
speedchuck TOWN

Wow I feel like those are all terrible. Made me realize I actually feel decent about Quin after the lynch. Gutfeel at least.

Relevant.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Dragon D. Luffy TOWN
dunya TOWN
Kylemii SCUM
Long Con SCUM
MovingPictures07 SCUM
NewTraditionalist SCUM
Quin TOWN
sig TOWN
Spacedaisy TOWN
SpankGangsta SCUM
speedchuck TOWN

Wow I feel like those are all terrible. Made me realize I actually feel decent about Quin after the lynch. Gutfeel at least.

Relevant.

Kyle's version (consolidated)

DDL Town
Dunya Town
LC Town?
MP Scum
NT (Bob) Town, I guess
Quin Scum
Sig Town
Daisy Town
SG (Jack) Town
Speed Maybe scum

[Jackofhearts2005]

Wow that sucks.

Sorry Wilgy.

This is what happened, guys: I wasn't feeling very sure on either the Quin or the MP lynch. And don't even get me staretd on NT because I despise lynches on inactives.

So I saw someone mentioned they wanted Wilgy to be punished for his posting. I didn't have an opinion on him at all. But having seen CFDs work in the past, I thought "why not?" and tried to push one on him. Maybe it could reveal us something. I dunno.

It didn't work though.

Though it might have revealed something, from what I'm seeing (I'm not fully caught up)

Fuck it. Answering my own questions.

This answer sucks.

Speedchuck' answer is "cause his limited posting was stupid and anti town" to which I agree in principle but in this specific example, Wilgy was hunting boldly and that was not taken into consideration by Speed when he should have.

So this answer sucks too.