Phenon: Origins Mafia [END]

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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#601

Post by Spooky Ghost »

Spoiler: show
rest in fuckin pieces

good luck <3
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#602

Post by Lunatella »

Well... the baddie has done well in surprising me. I thought for sure it was Alpha.

I meant to come in just before the deadline and share my thoughts on what various kills would likely indicate, but I didn't because I was picking my sister up from the airport and forgot once she got here.

I would have bet money on my being killed. Because I believed it was Alpha and that is the most logical kill choice for a baddie Alpha.

Bravo seemed to indicate Hotel was his next choice after Delta, so to kill me makes the most sense if Alpha had been bad. He wasn't so this situation is irrelevant.

I believed that me being alive would indicate Hotel is bad. I'm his most likely shot to convince of anything because I've been the most inclined to give him the botd because I believed him to be civ. However, killing alpha doesn't make sense for Hotel since I have openly indicated that Bravo is my strongest town read. If he was bad, why would he not kill Bravo and cruise to victory knowing I have been very suspicious of Alpha for some time due to his actions in the last lynch? The Alpha kill does not support Hotel being the baddie here. Unless he believed he could convince Bravo I am bad.

I didn't see any reason why any of you would kill Hotel, so I doubted that would even happen.

So that brings me to Bravo, who would be Bravo's most logical kill? I didn't know in that case, and didn't expect it to even be an issue, but here I am now faced with answering that question. I believed the most likely kill for Hotel would be Bravo, but that didn't happen. I have been pretty up front about the fact that Hotel is my next suspect after Alpha. And in my belief that Bravo is civ. I could see a scenario where the baddie is either of you now!

I hate you both. I am leaning Hotel at the moment. But I feel far from confident atm...
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#603

Post by Lunatella »

No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.

But Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#604

Post by Julinook »

I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#605

Post by Julinook »

Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 am No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.
I don't think this conclusion fits the progression of this game thread. Hotel kills me and is left with you and Alpha. You expressed suspicion of Alpha and Hotel as recently as the most recent day, so there's no "cruising" to be had there. I don't like that you're instantly discounting this possibility.
Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 amBut Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.
I asked you recently why you had those strong civilian reads on me and you did not answer me. They were unexplained and stuck into posts almost for the sake of it, and now you're here reversing that read at the very start of a LyLo phase with the other living player being the same guy that hounded my ass just one phase ago. The opportunism is visible.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#606

Post by Julinook »

My initial perspective is that I hate Golf spending about four minutes deciding their mind is changed after "deliberating" over Hotel and turning on me. That opens the door for Hotel to return to the tinfoil that they'd expressed against me a day ago and help get me offed in a LyLo phase. It's especially troubling given that my activity has had to drop lately given my being busy for the holidays and I am less able to defend myself than I was earlier in the game.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#607

Post by Julinook »

I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#608

Post by Julinook »

If Golf is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Hotel

- Golf kills Alpha, leaving Bravo and Hotel alive. Golf knows I suspect Hotel and might pursue that angle, and has a dual option to either pocket Bravo (ruined by my questioning in the night phase) or turn on me after keeping me alive, playing for support from Hotel who was my biggest critic last day phase. Plausible scenario, albeit challenging

- Golf kills Bravo, leaving Hotel and Alpha. Hotel alone named Golf a leading suspect toward the end of the last day, and Alpha has been a loose cannon suspecting both of them (as a pairing mostly but also individually) and is hard to predict. Plausible scenario, more challenging than previous

- Golf kills Hotel, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Alpha and I have mostly trusted each other the whole game, and turning us against each other despite reservations about Golf would be very difficult. Most challenging scenario

If Hotel is mafia, the kill options were:

Alpha
Bravo
Golf

- Hotel kills Alpha, leaving Golf and Bravo. Hotel would likely not view Golf as an ally in this scenario given Golf's stated civilian reads on me, and thus would more likely be angling for my support against Golf, who I'd connected with Juliet. Since everyone suspected Hotel in some capacity yesterday, this isn't necessarily unbelievable. Plausible scenario, strikes me as more challenging than Golf killing Alpha scenario

- Hotel kills Bravo, leaving Alpha and Golf. In this scenario Hotel would likely be relying upon Alpha's paranoia about each of the two to serve him, hoping that he'd be able to stand taller than Golf in a war of uncertainty at Alpha's expense. Golf's reads also present the possibility of turning on Alpha. Plausible scenario, I think less difficult than previous

- Hotel kills Golf, leaving Alpha and Bravo. Hotel would be attempting to employ WIFOM to work out of a deep hole in a last gasp type play. The window may seem open given Alpha's recent paranoia and slacking trust for me and the tinfoil I'd attract by default. Plausible but quite challenging scenario
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#609

Post by Julinook »

The purpose of that exercise was to determine not only how much sense an Alpha kill makes for each of you, but also how much sense the other options would have made by comparison. Given that, judging the kill at face value, I think Golf as the last baddie makes more sense. Both of you yell at me if you disagree with points I've made.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#610

Post by Julinook »

I've voted Golf. My vote is not final. I'm using this entire phase to work as much as time allows.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#611

Post by Julinook »

This thing continues to bug me about Golf:
Golf wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:18 pm I'm also concerned about the fact that Juliet is trying to imply they are Dr. Wilgy. Why? If it is Wilgyi would be inclined to think he is good, but if it is not actually Wilgy, I am inclined to think they are trying to appear as Wilgy to look more benign.
Echo wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:45 am What was that crap about Juliet being Wilgy, and therefore town?
Golf wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:39 pm Ok, I read over the last four pages to make sure I understood everything that occurred since Echo's death.

Bravo you commented on Echo's post about this crap about Juliet being Wilgy. It was me that posted, but it was not what I actually said. What I had originally said was that Juliet's posts in rap gave my the impression of Juliet possibly being Wilgy. And if it was true it would make me inclined to see Juliet as more town, because the behavior in my mind was more in line with how a town Wilgy would act. But if it were not Wilgy it would make me feel like someone was trying to look like a town leaning Wilgy. Juliet came in and clarified some of what made me think all this and it is no longer relevant. I've dismissed that line of thought as a result.

So it was me he was talking about. I assume he didn't say anything about me specifically because he didn't remember who said it. However, that would make me feel like they may have discussed it in BTSC. Otherwise he would have commented on it when he first read it, if it stood out to him. Which makes me wonder why that might be the case.
Golf wrote: Tue Dec 19, 2017 12:41 pm I doubt I will be the one to die tonight, because I haven't done any hunting in the last cycle at all so I'm not a threat and I have drawn some attention. But if I do die, I think I would also say, lynch Juliet. I'm thinking the reason it might have come up in BTSC was because it was about one of them.
These theories look like TMI. The Juliet-is-or-isn't-Wilgy thing is already dubious, because the only shtick happening was rap and I don't see why that is supposed to be Wilgyesque apart from "person being goofy". Then Golf brought up BTSC, suggesting Echo's yell into the clouds up there might have come from a discussion behind the scenes. I don't struggle to believe that Golf was right about that, and that they got an inkling of that truth from their own place in that BTSC.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#612

Post by Julinook »

Returning to the Juliet/Hotel pairing examination I did earlier in the game, I want to revisit a couple of points based on the assumption that Juliet was bad.
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:03 pm
Juliet wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:58 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2017 5:43 pm Okay, voting Echo because why not. Need to finish catching up and then hopefully can provide some reads. This has been a tough setup to get my mind around.
What part are you having trouble getting your mind around?
The disguiser role is still somewhat confusing to me, but I'm taking your all's word for it and rolling with it. The lack of flips is very bizarre and I have no idea what to do with it. And maybe it's the sockpuppets too, but I've just been having trouble understanding pretty much anything so far.
This exchange is entirely neutral, and serves more to allow both Hotel and Juliet to appear involved than to put either of them under actual pressure. This is the easiest sort of communication mafia teammates can have in a game thread, and it's not a great look.
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:14 pm A rainbow:

Alpha
Bravo
Charlie


Golf

Delta
Juliet


Foxtrot

Echo
This rainbow was agreeable from a perspective of POE, but the Juliet placement is still dubious. Yellow neutrality does not move me, particularly when Juliet (a player who had put at least some content into the game and was a hot topic of discussion) is right there next to Delta (a player who did close to nothing and to that point was not often discussed).
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#613

Post by Julinook »

Golf, if you are a civilian I would urge you to please keep a level head, as best as you can, and talk through everything with me. It's not me, and I have put a lot into this thing to try to figure it all out. Getting a civ win in this game would feel like one of my better achievements as a player considering the challenge of having no flips and the slow pace to boot, and my efforts in this thread should bear out my desire to see that happen.

I am always listening and my decision is not final.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#614

Post by Lunatella »

I... am super concerned now.

I don't disagree with any of your points. But you are wrong in coming to the conclusion it is me.

Let's assume you and I are both civ, why would Hotel kill Alpha instead of you? Can you think through that scenario please and give me your thoughts?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#615

Post by Lunatella »

I leaned Hotel originally because I coudn't see why he wouldn't have killed me instead of Alpha. It would be easy to get me to lynch Alpha. But I am left with the same question regarding both of you. Why would you kill Alpha instead of Hotel, again I have made it pretty clear it is Alpha I was most tinfoiling over. So why am I alive right now?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#616

Post by Lunatella »

Oh also, to answer your comments regarding TMI, you are looking at them all wrong.

You first assumed something was up with me thinking it might be Wilgy. The reason why I thought that was straight forward. I jsut came out of playing a game with Wilgy where his play style was so normal for him it weirded me out. So it was forefront on my mind that normal Wilgy is probably bad Wilgy, and weird/jokey/schtick Wilgy is more likely civ. And I thought it was Wilgy, because he has been the most likely player to go to a schtick lately and also the raps made mention of Dr. J. I thought, that's weird why would Wilgy tell us who was behind his sock. Then I thought he wouldn't, this might be someone trying to LOOK like Wilgy. Why would they do that? Oh, because schticky Wilgy is usually civ. It looked suspicious to me. Juliet then explained the Dr. J thing was a play on Dr. Dre. I don't do rap, I didn't catch it. And she denied being Wilgy, so clearly she wasn't trying to look like Wilgy. Soooo... I dropped that.

Later Echo brought it up in a post with no mention of who said it or even quoting it. I just found it mildly annoying since it was incorrectly quoting the situation until you brought it back up (still without knowing who said it because you hadn't researched it yet). I was the one who volunteered that it was me and cleared up what I meant when I said it originally and that I dropped it. But you pointing out the fact he hadn't mentioned who said it made me wonder, why did he go about it that way? That was when I realized it was probably a tie between Juliet and Echo, for the reasons mentioned. See, I was on a team with someone once who did something similar. We had a teammate stuck in BTSC with a civ who told her something. She passed it on to us in our baddie BTSC. One of my teammates then mentioned it in thread because he forgot that it came up in our Baddie BTSC, not in the thread. It immediately outed half our team to that civ. Seeing how Echo commented on that looked exactly the same as the situation I just mentioned. It wasn't TMI, it was recognizing the red flags.

And that was why I came back around to Juliet. I truly am civ. If you are truly civ Bravo, lynching me will lose the game for us.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#617

Post by Lunatella »

Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:09 am
Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 am No I have changed my mind. Bravo. It must be Bravo. I would have bet my life it was Alpha after the game didn't end. The only way Hotel would have kept me alive was if he killed Bravo. He could have easily cruised to victory if he had killed Bravo.
I don't think this conclusion fits the progression of this game thread. Hotel kills me and is left with you and Alpha. You expressed suspicion of Alpha and Hotel as recently as the most recent day, so there's no "cruising" to be had there. I don't like that you're instantly discounting this possibility.
Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:52 amBut Bravo could have thought since I was so certain he was civ, to kill Alpha he could convince me of it being Hotel. This was a mistake, though. He should have killed either me or Hotel.

I'm voting Bravo, but I am certainly open to hearing things from both of you.
I asked you recently why you had those strong civilian reads on me and you did not answer me. They were unexplained and stuck into posts almost for the sake of it, and now you're here reversing that read at the very start of a LyLo phase with the other living player being the same guy that hounded my ass just one phase ago. The opportunism is visible.
It fits it perfectly actually, I have been more suspicious of Alpha than of Hotel since the beginning of the last Lynch. I won't deny suspecting Hotel as well, but why would he leave the only person in the game that I have expressed universal trust in?

As far as why I trust you, it was your actions. You were expressing reads, looking over interactions, looking at things very analytically. I am probably a victim of being the kind of person who trusts people who see things the same way as her, I can't deny that. I would say it's probably a combination of all of the above. I can't point at one thing in particular because it has been the overall feel of your whole game play.

I just can't get past this Alpha NK. Why Alpha? Why not me? I would make more sense than Alpha.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#618

Post by Lunatella »

Ok, So I pretty much said the following:

I trusted Bravo the most
I varied between slight town read and slight baddie read of Hotel
I trusted Alpha the least

Why would Hotel kill Alpha and leave himself stuck in the game with me and the person I trusted the most? How would he benefit from this?

Same question regarding Bravo, why would he kill Alpha who I suspected the most knowing I trust himself the most and would easily vote alongside him for Alpha? How would it benefit him?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#619

Post by Echo »

Well, that was a weird kill target. RIP Alpha, you rocked this game and we'll avenge your death.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#620

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.
LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#621

Post by Echo »

Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 am I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.
It's reconcilable pretty easily IMO. I realized I hadn't considered you to be bad pretty much all game, which was a mistake, so in the back of my mind I started thinking about ways in which you could be the baddie. Then I officially started catching up on the thread, and when I got to your post, it sort of came together and I genuinely began to tinfoil on you, though I admittedly played it up a bit in terms of the intensity to gauge exactly how you and Alpha would respond.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#622

Post by Echo »

Honestly both of you sound genuine AF and otherwise I'd be pretty torn right now, but I'm pretty sure it's Bravo based on the doctor claim, so yeah.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#623

Post by Echo »

The only thing I really don't understand is why a mafia Bravo would leave me alive in this situation when I was just suspecting him last phase.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#624

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:19 am
Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.
LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.
No, absolutely not.

You don't just discard a claim, park your vote, and fuck off at LyLo. Golf and I had voted for each other, leaving you in what should be a very difficult position if you're a civilian: choosing correctly between two arguing sides. You've used my claim as an excuse to relieve yourself of the duty of even faking that difficulty, literally to "make your decision for you". That is gross, and it is more gross than anything Golf said.

Voting Hotel.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#625

Post by Julinook »

I don't expect anyone to just take my word for it that I'm the doctor at this point in the game. I do expect however that sincere doubts would be expressed in the form of some kind of actual critical examination, questions asked, or something.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#626

Post by Julinook »

I mean shit, if I'm mafia and I want to fake claim doctor at end game, I skip my kill and pretend I saved someone. In this game I probably wouldn't even do that, because there are no flips and I wouldn't know whether the real doctor is even dead.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#627

Post by Julinook »

Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:26 am I... am super concerned now.

I don't disagree with any of your points. But you are wrong in coming to the conclusion it is me.

Let's assume you and I are both civ, why would Hotel kill Alpha instead of you? Can you think through that scenario please and give me your thoughts?
In a vacuum, I do think the "best" kill for Hotel was me. What's important though in this dynamic is Hotel's perspective of the game, not mine. Let's consider:

- It was not clear to me that you suspected Alpha considerably more than Hotel. You hated Hotel's attack on me in the last day phase and you tinfoiled (you called it that) on Alpha. If Hotel doesn't think your suspicion of Alpha is considerably greater than your suspicion of him, then he doesn't have the incentive you're attributing to killing me and leaving himself with just you and Alpha at LyLo.

- Everyone suspected Hotel to some degree last day phase. He said as much himself. A bad Hotel is going to feel cornered in that situation, and any kill option is going to leave him in a LyLo with people who suspect him. It's times like those where the only way out of the hole is WIFOM. By leaving you alive with me, he opens the door for you to ask the obvious question which you instantly asked: why am I here with Bravo?

- I don't know how you feel about this, but it's something I want you to consider: imagine I'd been killed, and you'd been stuck in a LyLo with Alpha and Hotel instead. Considering your own reads and not how they may have been interpreted by others, do you suspect that scenario is very different from this one? You have a suspect (Alpha) who shouldn't logically want you alive and someone you trust more than Alpha (Hotel) alive too. The same problem exists in this situation: "why would Alpha keep me alive with someone who I trust more?". Hotel as the mafioso is left with this problem in every situation. If he kills you instead, then it's Alpha asking why Hotel would kill you and leave the two high posters together. This is how WIFOM generates tinfoil in an endgame. It's a brilliant play if it's what Hotel did. Right now, that's my prevailing theory.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#628

Post by Julinook »

Moreover Hotel, you just put 5 posts in a LyLo phase and made zero effort to investigate one of the other two players (the one you voted alongside). That's now how a paranoid civilian behaves at end game.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#629

Post by Julinook »

Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 3:40 amJuliet then explained the Dr. J thing was a play on Dr. Dre. I don't do rap, I didn't catch it. And she denied being Wilgy, so clearly she wasn't trying to look like Wilgy. Soooo... I dropped that.
This portion of the exchange I don't recall, so I'll have to go back and look. It sounds to me like the most important portion of the dialogue, because the "Dr. J" thing does lend more of a reason for you to attribute Wilgy to the rapping than just "goofball".
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#630

Post by Julinook »

[mention]Golf[/mention] I'm having trouble finding Juliet's clarification that it was a play on "Dr. Dre". Can you show me?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#631

Post by Julinook »

I'm not fucking mafia. In a setup with mechanics built against all typical civilian hunting methods, I have tried everything I can think of to alleviate that disadvantage and to give us a chance. We have a chance now. If I get mislynched at endgame it will be a goddamned travesty and I refuse to let that happen if I can help it. State all your grievances, scream them in my face, and I will answer. One of you is a civilian and the other one is not. Regardless of where my vote is right now, if you're the good one then please listen to me.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 1]

#632

Post by Lunatella »

Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:36 pm I thought Dr. J was just a pun on Dr. Dre.
Apparently I was remembering incorrectly. I thought it was Juliet that cleared it up, but it was actually Alpha that pointed out the play on Dr. Dre. My apologies.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#633

Post by Lunatella »

Juliet wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:28 am What's up town, it's Dr. J,
I brought along my vote and I'm here to stay.
You ask me if I'd want to lynch the letter K?
I tell you "Yesssir! After an and MIA".
Why not instead lynch the letter G?
Or better yet, toss your votes on the AWOL D?
A letter that's the furthest from what our eyes see,
Just like the moon at its apogee.
Juliet wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:45 pm
Echo wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:57 pm
Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:11 pm Without any reliable flips in this game it's more important than ever for everyone to be pretty dang clear about why they're voting for who they're voting for.
Without any flips - reliable or unreliable - it will be harder than most other games to determine which voting reasons are genuine.
Hello friends, Dr. J is back
I saw this post, and I gotta react
I like your pause, I think it's got good tact
But reasons are reasons, scum will still slack
It's a game about the mind and a game about deceit
Take a seat, watch 'em speak, or accept defeat
If we talk and talk, keep 'em out on the street
We'll nab those wolves dead on their feet.
Juliet wrote: Sun Dec 17, 2017 4:41 pm Sup y'all!!! Dr. J is back in the house.

My new album was not a hit, so I've left the music biz in pursuit of other things to grind my bling. But before I completely pack my bags, I'll address my critics.
Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:17 pm
India wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:09 pm
Juliet wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:45 pm
Echo wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:57 pm
Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:11 pm Without any reliable flips in this game it's more important than ever for everyone to be pretty dang clear about why they're voting for who they're voting for.
Without any flips - reliable or unreliable - it will be harder than most other games to determine which voting reasons are genuine.
Hello friends, Dr. J is back
I saw this post, and I gotta react
I like your pause, I think it's got good tact
But reasons are reasons, scum will still slack
It's a game about the mind and a game about deceit
Take a seat, watch 'em speak, or accept defeat
If we talk and talk, keep 'em out on the street
We'll nab those wolves dead on their feet.
I dislike this post. It says nothing.
Juliet, rap is cool and fun and I'm glad you're doing it. It's also going to make it harder for you to communicate and harder for us to read you. I know this is maybe antithetical to your rap strategy but if you could include a tl;dr at the end of your rap verses I would appreciate it.
India is a blunt letter. An immediate response of antagonism, but pulling no punches. I like that.

Alpha on the other hand, came in with an ambivalent approach. Agreeing with India, yet being wishy-washy to the rhymes. Not cool! Additionally, Alpha was chilling around, laying other posts on the thread after my above-quoted track, with no response to yours truly. Bad jazz for you Alpha-friend.

Especially with the immediate agreement with India, and the immediate vote-vote.
Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:25 pm I'd be okay with a Juliet vote.


And to answer Bravo-Man-Burrito:
Spoiler: show
Bravo wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:34 pm
Juliet wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:28 am What's up town, it's Dr. J,
I brought along my vote and I'm here to stay.
You ask me if I'd want to lynch the letter K?
I tell you "Yesssir! After an and MIA".
Why not instead lynch the letter G?
Or better yet, toss your votes on the AWOL D?
A letter that's the furthest from what our eyes see,
Just like the moon at its apogee.
Juliet, why do you feel it is prudent to prioritize an MIA lynch over a K lynch specifically?
Let the talkers keep talking and eliminate the quiet ones who may never answer your pleas.
Spoiler: show
India wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:35 pm I have no issue with Juliet's choice to rap. I believe I inspired it.

Lack of content is lack of content.
The arrogance is strong in this one.
Spoiler: show
Foxtrot wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:54 pm Also if we lynch the Oracle it's worthless anyways.
What do you think about someone claiming to be the Oracle?



Also, the guy who said this:
Spoiler: show
Alpha wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:30 pm Next letter to complain about game mechanics will earn my eternal ire.
previously asked this:
Spoiler: show
Alpha wrote: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:23 pm
sprityo wrote: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:27 pmThere is no reveal upon death of any kind
Hey wait so how do we do this? How do we..... anything?
Alpha's gotta go.



Also, I see India's dead. Amazing! He/she's a badass.
These were the posts that made me think she was pretending to be Dr. Wilgy.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#634

Post by Lunatella »

Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.
Why would you have protected me last night?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#635

Post by Lunatella »

And if you protected me last night, why straight out of the gate was your initial vote on me?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#636

Post by Julinook »

Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:55 pm Why would you have protected me last night?
The player I would have most liked to protect was myself, but sprityo declared that not allowed. I thought Hotel was the least likely kill target overall and didn't consider protecting him much. I looked over each of the potential kills and tried to determine who'd be most likely to deliver each one, and determined that if Alpha is mafia his most likely target would be you (leaving himself at LyLo with Hotel and I, which would look like a favorable arrangement). Given that Alpha would be a difficult lynch, I thought getting that insight from protecting you while also salvaging your voice and vote would be very valuable if that eventuality came to pass. Combine this with the fact that the mafia had been hard to predict in their kills (i.e. Foxtrot), and I decided to take the risk. I probably overthought the decision and it didn't work.
Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:56 pm And if you protected me last night, why straight out of the gate was your initial vote on me?
Entering this day my first question for myself was "why am I still alive?", and then the first thing I saw in this thread was you turning on me after a four minute differential in the time-stamps between your two posts. You changed your mind so quickly and in your immediate incursion into LyLo that it just looked like I'd found my answer. "I'm still alive because Golf wanted to do that."

Frankly I still find that suspicious. I find Hotel suspicious. I don't trust either of you at all and this is a very difficult scenario, especially when I am the one on course to be lynched instead of either of you. Extremely frustrating.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#637

Post by Lunatella »

I am going to move my vote to Hotel.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#638

Post by Lunatella »

No I'm moving back.

There seems more plausible explanation for Bravo to kill Alpha than Hotel. I don't see Golf going for the more difficult path, which is what this would be.

I'm voting Bravo.

Oh my god sprityo this end game is too stressful!
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#639

Post by sprityo »

Golf wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:46 pm No I'm moving back.

There seems more plausible explanation for Bravo to kill Alpha than Hotel. I don't see Golf going for the more difficult path, which is what this would be.

I'm voting Bravo.

Oh my god sprityo this end game is too stressful!
this stress is nothing compared to Phenon Mafia
Epignosis wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 11:46 pm You all are terrible at this.
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:How does it feel to be the Best Civilian Player on the Syndicate?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#640

Post by Julinook »

There’s not much else I can say in my defense. I can’t be here much tonight while family visits. I’m going to make the best effort I can tomorrow to turn this around. As it stands the one lynch I know lose the civilians the game is the one shown in the poll right now.

I hope you’re both available tomorrow to talk with me.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#641

Post by Julinook »

First thing today I am going to state a full, thorough case in my own defense. These points must be taken or left since I am the one providing them, but I have to try. If I am not taken seriously then the game is lost.

Point 1 in my defense: effort level

While baddies are capable of giving a strong effort, one has to consider the context of the game. This thing has been a pretty slow mover compared to other heists and games of comparable size, still sitting at less than 700 posts at end game. A slow and analytically deprived game thread is the most basic advantage that a mafia team can ever enjoy, and when I am mafia the last thing I care to do is change that dynamic. In this game I have really tried to do that, and the best thing going for Alpha was that they did the same thing. I have engaged conversations with every player, or at least attempted to, and I've done that despite time restrictions during a holiday season keeping me away from my laptop longer than usual.

Point 2 in my defense: methods

This game comes stock with mechanics that inherently favor the mafia team. The ratios are unfavorable in an eleven player game given the size of the mafia team. Without flips it's made even worse, as the primary analytic tool that civilians tend to work with is unavailable. For this reason I can understand why some players were disheartened earlier in the game and felt that the civs' chances weren't very good. I felt that way myself, and yet I have still done everything in my power to alleviate the disadvantage. I have analyzed the game both deterministically and probabilistically for every possible combination of mafia members there is. I have tried to fill the role of leadership to keep the civilians engaged and motivated. I have badly wanted to overcome the difficulties of this setup and find a way to win, because it would really be an awesome achievement. My post history should bear that out.

I acknowledge that there is some selfishness in it. I am a player who is proud of their civilian game and has earned some reputation for it. It's a reputation that I seek to live up to and to strengthen, and winning this game would mean a lot. I want that stupid best civilian socky award. I want that stupid heist MVP award. I want that glory. And I have played this game with those pursuits close to heart. To know that we are so close to see this through and yet still on course to lose the game is really disappointing right now.

Point 3 in my defense: Echo and the India kill

Echo's role claim of the oracle was bizarre, and I treated it that way. Indeed, the two players who were most interrogative in Echo's direction for that maneuver were India and I, the former having likely been the oracle himself. Indeed, it was apparent to me that, like Alpha said at one point I believe, if Echo wasn't really the oracle then the most likely alternative would be India (the guy most severely protesting the claim). If I'm mafia and teamed with Echo, I don't kill the guy most likely to be the oracle who is sure to identify the other guy who claimed oracle. That's nonsense. That it actually happened suggests to me that the bad guys were not paying adequate attention to the details. Nobody has been paying closer attention to the details in this game than I was.

Moreover, when Echo was revealed as the disguiser and there was an opportunity in the thread to consider the possibility that it was India instead and the oracle/disguiser mechanics were confusing the two, I did not stand for that:
Bravo wrote: Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:17 pm Poll doesn't work on my phone. Voting Echo whenever it lets me.

This provides a great solving opportunity. Echo is the disguiser and his teammates may be identifiable in his posts (including or not including Kilo) It'll be muddier than usual perhaps given the no flip dynamic. I'll take a look a bit later.
Bravo wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:37 pm I'm acting under the assumption that India was the oracle and exposed Echo as the disguiser. It might not be totally kosher, but it's in the thread: India's one dead post is looks like a confirmation to me.
And considering India's dead post, I think it's a good thing I didn't.

Point 4 in my defense: Juliet

For this one there are a couple of premises to consider:

1 - Juliets was bad.
2 - In a game with no flips, distancing and bussing are not very useful to a mafia team.

If you accept those premises, and I do, then you ought to be led to a sound inductive conclusion:

Bravo is not bad.

As soon as Echo was revealed as the disguiser, I began investigating the connections. Recall the Juliet interactive read. The two players that I felt were most connected to Echo were Juliet and Foxtrot. Numerous other players also voiced suspicion of Juliet, some citing the connections I drew. It is clear to me that I played a prominent role in getting Juliet lynched. Then the following night, Foxtrot was killed. So consider:

I had two primary suspects. One of them was killed. The other was Juliet, who was promptly lynched. Why the bloody fuck would I do that to my teammate in a game with no flips?. It makes zero sense. There is no rationale for that. To assert that I am mafia now requires that I did that, unless you're going to tell me that Juliet was a civilian who literally just fucked off at the first sign of trouble. There is legitimate tinfoil and there is nonsense. This represents the latter.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#642

Post by Julinook »

I'm going to make sure I am crystal clear about that Juliet point, because it should really speak volumes:

My top suspects were Foxtrot and Juliet.

If I am mafia and Juliet is my teammate, then that means I deliberately killed suspect #1 (Foxtrot), leaving only my own teammate (a lynch of whom would prove ineffective as a credit grab given the lack of a flip) as the obvious odds-on lynch instead.

There is no rationale for that strategy. It is stupid.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#643

Post by Julinook »

Now, among the two of you, I presently think Hotel is the worse look and a big reason why is their handling of this LyLo phase. They have spent nearly no time in this thread, and they gave zero effort in trying to get a read on Golf. They threw my claim in the garbage immediately and used it as an excuse to drop a vote on me and fuck off indefinitely.

That is not a player who is struggling to handle the paranoia and stress of LyLo, something I have seen in Golf who is struggling to make a final choice. That is the behavior of a player getting their way. And this leads me to a point for [mention]Golf[/mention]: you've been concerned that the Alpha kill makes no sense for Hotel because it would be the "hard route" to victory.

Please assess the state of this phase right now. On a scale of 1-5, how hard has this been for Hotel? Give me a 1.

It might not make the most immediate intuitive sense to you, but it's the reality. If Hotel is mafia then they made a really good kill selection and deserve to be commended for it, because it has worked perfectly to this point.

If Golf is mafia, then good game because I doubt I'm lynching you at this point.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#644

Post by Julinook »

There's also the fact that in the phase with the worst pressure, Golf has looked a lot more genuine in their attempts to sort this out even considering they've come to the wrong conclusion.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#645

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:13 am Well, that was a weird kill target. RIP Alpha, you rocked this game and we'll avenge your death.
Generic fake promise for vengeance. I remember dunya saying this right after she killed me long ago. Were it only that I could provide a link, but the game is deleted. It's also break the sock reveal rule. :rolleyes:
Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:19 am
Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:03 am I'm the doctor. This game has been infuriating, because I have repeatedly picked the right names to protect at the wrong times, and the mafia have done well to be hard to predict. These were my targets:

Night 1 - Alpha
Night 2 - Charlie
Night 3 - Alpha
Night 4 - Golf

I realize that there's no hard evidence for this now, but it's the truth. I'm putting it all out here to maximize the information we have. I can explain every protection target if needed.
LOL, well, this made my decision for me. You're clearly lying.
Nope.

This is a celebration of convenience, not of a read being solified. I'm not lying, so I can't be "clearly lying", so take your adverbs to the grave with you m-f-er.
Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:29 am Honestly both of you sound genuine AF and otherwise I'd be pretty torn right now, but I'm pretty sure it's Bravo based on the doctor claim, so yeah.
Fake. Hotel should be torn and knows it, and is using my claim to relieve themself of the pressure of actually looking like they have a choice to make.
Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:31 am The only thing I really don't understand is why a mafia Bravo would leave me alive in this situation when I was just suspecting him last phase.
Fake. Golf's suspicions on this front at least make logical sense, and I understand them wrong as they may be. Hotel's last rainbow thing the previous day featured me at the top and Golf at the bottom:

Spoiler: show
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:54 pm
Bravo wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:51 pm
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm I'll switch my vote to Delta I suppose. Not feeling Bravo anymore anyway. I really don't know who the baddie is right now. Damn you for being good at this game, whoever you are, lol.
Please explain your change of heart.

linki: okay. Where do your reads currently sit overall?
:ponder:

I don't really know anymore. Whichever one of is us bad, assuming it's not Delta, is just doing a really good job of it. I suppose I'm feeling something like....

Bravo

Alpha

Golf


but those colors could just as easily be slightly different shades of green because the real problem is I feel like everyone is some degree of townish, but I also realize we're at the point in the game where none of us are above suspicion.

Hotel is saying things (barely) and doing nothing. Why should he when the lynch has been planted on my face for 97% of the phase so far?
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#646

Post by Julinook »

Hotel wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:22 am
Bravo wrote: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:14 am I still want this addressed ASAP, Hotel. That is the most concerning aspect of your recent post history to me.
It's reconcilable pretty easily IMO. I realized I hadn't considered you to be bad pretty much all game, which was a mistake, so in the back of my mind I started thinking about ways in which you could be the baddie. Then I officially started catching up on the thread, and when I got to your post, it sort of came together and I genuinely began to tinfoil on you, though I admittedly played it up a bit in terms of the intensity to gauge exactly how you and Alpha would respond.
This answer rings hollow. Translation:

"I was kind of serious, but it was largely a test for Bravo and Alpha."

This player wanted to lynch me last phase and actually tried to do it. There's no "test". That's bullshit.
Hotel wrote: Sun Dec 24, 2017 3:19 pm Dammit Alpha, vote Bravo with me. It has to be him.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#647

Post by Julinook »

Please get in here and talk with me soon. I finally have a pretty open day to be around here.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#648

Post by Julinook »

Or maybe I'll sit here and pick my ass by myself until we lose. :suspish:
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#649

Post by Lunatella »

Well... meeeeehhhhhh. I just have to decide. I have been back and forth. One minute I feel like I can see one person as more likely to kill Alpha and the next I can see the other. I had told myself before the end of the last night that if I remained alive come dawn, then the last baddie must be Hotel. Because I was his only shot at staying alive. But I fully expected either myself or Bravo to die. I did not anticipate Alpha's death whatsoever. And it has sent me into a spiral of doubt. But I am going to ignore the fat it was Bravo and focus on the fact that it wasn't me. Given that, I'm going with my gut about the fact that my remaining alive implicated Hotel.

And if I am wrong, I'm so very sorry civs.

I'm voting Hotel.
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Re: Phenon: Origins Mafia [Day 5]

#650

Post by Lunatella »

*ignore the fact...
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