[END] Pet Sounds Mafia

[a2thezebra]

Feel better, bea. Don't worry about the game, your health comes first

I'm not really worried about Tranq. Call it a gut feeling, but I feel an evil Tranq would at least be trying to pull some strings. I think he just doesn't have anything to say yet.

Or maybe he hasn't found any strings to pull. Current thoughts on me/Wilgy?

I still think he's good. As for you, I'm not all that comfortable moving my vote somewhere else and letting the baddies pile up on it and control this lynch when it's already looking settled.

Is there really that much separating Tranq and Choutas? They both seem to be playing the same game to me. Disregarding post count (I don't really pay attention to that), their contributions so far are practically the same.

So you would prefer a "settled" mislynch to a justified but riskier potential baddie lynch? Good to know. As for the Tranq/Choutas comparison I think it's much more difficult to justify perceiving Chouta's ISO as deceitful or scummy in general when up against Tranq's. Choutas seems rather flustered with the direction the game is going in similar to myself. I never base my reads off of post count myself; I can have a strong town read on a person with one post and a strong scum read on a person with one post as well.

[a2thezebra]

I don't really know what to think of the Wilgy/Zebra/Marmot convos. The Marmot plays exactly like he did in TH, I lean town on him for that. Wilgy's first post that MM quoted doesn't look good. Does he always posts like that in all games? Zebra mirrors well what I saw from him in TH. He's a good player though I'm sure he's capable of doing that as scum so I''ll have to watch for the slight details that might give that away.
I'm voting for Wilgy until a better case forms.

This post alone, regardless of how you feel about its content, puts Choutas in a much better position than Tranq. This is actual content that could be analyzed and argued with. Tranq has offered nothing of substance whatsoever.

[DrWilgy]

Checked this again, and fixed an error.

X Player - Is not on team with A,B,C
Zebra - FZ, Matt F, Bcornett
Bcornett - FZ, Boomslang, Floyd, Zebra, Matt
Bea - Tranq //bea had not voted by this time
Boomslang - Luke, Bcornett, Floyd
Choutas - Me, Tranq
Me - Choutas, Enrique
Enrique - Metalmarsh, Luke, Me
FZ - Bcornett, Zebra, Matt
Luke - Boomslang, Bcornett, Floyd, Metalmarsh, Enrique
Matt - FZ, Zebra
MetalMarsh - Luke, Enrique
Floyd - Luke, Boomslang, Bcornett
Tranq - Choutas, Bea

Zebra, Bea, Anyone who isn't Matt or Tranq
Zebra, Boomslang, Anyone who isn't Luke, Matt, or Floyd
Zebra, Choutas, Anyone who isn't Tranq or Matt
Zebra, Enrique, Anyone who isn't MM, Luke, or Matt
Zebra, Luke, Not Boomslang, Not Floyd, Not MM, Not Matt, nor Enrique
Zebra, MM, not Luke, not Matt, nor Enrique
Zebra, Floyd, not Luke, not Matt, nor Boomslang
Zebra, Tranq, not Matt, not Choutas, or Bea
Bea, Boomslang, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, or Floyd
Bea, Choutas, anyone who isn't Tranq
Bea, Enrique, anyone who isn't Tranq, MM, or Luke
Bea, Luke, anyone who isn't Tranq, Boomslang, Floyd, MM, or Enrique
Bea, Matt, anyone who isn't Tranq or Zebra
Bea, MM, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, or Enrique
Bea, Floyd, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, Matt or Boomslang
Boomslang, Choutas, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, or Floyd
Boomslang, Enrique, anyone who isn't MM, Luke, or Floyd
Boomslang, Matt, anyone who isn't Luke, Floyd, or Zebra
Boomslang, MM, anyone who isn't Luke, Floyd, or Enrique
Boomslang, Tranq, anyone who isn't Luke, Floyd, Choutas, or Bea
Choutas, Enrique, anyone who isn't Tranq, MM, or Luke
Choutas, Luke, anyone who isn't Tranq, Boomslang, Floyd, MM, or Enrique
Choutas, Matt, anyone who isn't Tranq or Zebra
Choutas, MM, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, or Enrique
Choutas, Floyd, anyone who isn't Tranq, Luke, Matt or Boomslang
Enrique, Matt, anyone who isn't MM, Luke or Zebra
Enrique, Floyd, anyone who isn't MM, Luke, Matt, or Boomslang
Enrique, Tranq, anyone who isn't MM, Luke, Choutas or Bea
Luke, Matt, and Tranq
Matt, MM, anyone who isn't Zebra, Luke, or Enrique
Matt, Floyd, anyone who isn't Zebra, Luke, or Boomslang
Matt, Tranq, anyone who isn't Zebra, Choutas, or Bea
MM, Floyd, anyone who isn't Luke, Enrique, Luke, or Boomslang
MM, Tranq, anyone who isn't Luke, Enrique, Choutas or Bea
Floyd, Tranq, anyone who isn't Luke, Boomslang, Choutas or Bea

I think I hit every baddie combination possible, based on my analysis. It's interesting that Luke, Matt, and Tranq, is the only baddie combination that is possible if Luke and Matt are on a team. Someone double check my work plz.

I'll look at all the liki now...

[DrWilgy]

Out of these combinations, which ones seem the most likely to everyone?

My most likely is still the same from yesterday, Zebra, Boomslang, and Choutas.

[a2thezebra]

My favorite combination would have to be "Boomslang, Tranq, anyone who isn't Luke, Floyd, Choutas, or Bea" since it leaves room for you.

[a2thezebra]

Or, alternatively, MM.

[DrWilgy]

I like that one too, but because it leaves room for MM...

linki - d'oh, ya beat me to it

[a2thezebra]

So vote for Tranq.

[a2thezebra]

In fact since it leaves room for me as well, it's interesting that you said MM instead of the person you're voting for.

[DrWilgy]

The thing is, you and MM being on the same team is possible based on early day 1, but I still doubt it. Not something I've looked hard into though. Just a gut feeling based upon your interactions.

[a2thezebra]

Oh right, I forgot which game I'm in. Here you go town, remember to bump it when I'm dead:

In fact since it leaves room for me as well, IT'S INTERESTING THAT YOU SAID MM INSTEAD OF THE PERSON YOU'RE VOTING FOR

linki: But the suggestion doesn't involve me and MM being on the same team, it involves me being on the same team as Boomslang and Tranq.

[DrWilgy]

Oh! I know what was missed. I didn't explain that I have an on MM.

[Boomslang]

Zebra, you posted enough to counter my previous read; that's why I let that suspicion drop. I'm changing my vote to Tranq in hopes of countering the other wagon, which I don't like.

[a2thezebra]

That still doesn't justify why you think that's a likely option because of him and not, again, the person you're voting for. But then again these vote-based statistic-heavy analyses of yours aren't always the best tools to decipher what's actually going on in the first place...

Spoiler: show

~AceofSpaces: TheFloyd73 (4) 3%

~bcornett24: FZ. (19), Sorsha (21), Epignosis (26), bea (27), Golden (36), Long Con (38) 16%

~Devin the Omniscient: rundontwalk (7) 3%

~Diiny: Devin the Omniscient (6), thellama73 (24) 5%

~DrWilgy: Ricochet (23) 3%

~JaggedJimmyJay: Rbzmncaeaei (37) 3%

~Long Con: Choutas (12), sig (16), seaside (17), DrWilgy (18), motel room (31), bcornett24 (32),
JaggedJimmyJay (34), Russtifinko (35) 21%

~Matt F: Roxy (15) 3%

~Metalmarsh89: Bullzeye (20) 3%

~seaside: Metalmarsh89 (2), Strawhenge (10) 5%

~Sorsha: Matt F (25), Elohcin (33) 5%

~thellama73: MacDougall (13), Diiny (28), espers (30) 8%

<<<~~~~~>>>
Start: Votes required to 50% kill LC (3) { (brackets represent killing point)
MM puts Seaside at 1 *marker(2)*
-Where has MM been since?
-Votes to kill LC +1 (4)

Floyd ties it with AceofSpaces at 1 *marker(4)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +4

Devin ties it with Diiny at 1 *marker(6)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +4

RDW ties it with Devin at 1 *marker(7)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +4

Strawhenge gives seaside the lead at 2 *marker(10)*
-Votes to kill LC +1 (5)

Choutas is the 1st of final votes on LC *marker(12)*
-Votes to kill LC -1 (4)

MacDougall votes Llama *marker(13)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +4
Roxy votes Matt F *marker(15)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +4

Sig Seaside and DrWilgy give LC lead at 4 *marker(16,17,18)*
-Votes to kill LC -3 (1)

First vote for bcornett by FZ *marker(19)*,
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Bullzeye first vote for MM *marker(20)*,
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Sorsha for bcornett *marker(21)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Rico on me for 1 *marker(23)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Llama on Diiny *marker(24)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Matt F on Sorsha *marker(25)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +1

Epi and Bea on bcornett *marker(26, 27)*
-Votes to kill LC +2 (3)

Dinny and Espers on llama *marker(28, 30)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +3

Motel room and cornett on LC *marker(31, 32)*
-Votes to kill LC -2 (1)

Elohcin on Sorsha *marker(33)*
-LC is currently at a safe spot with +3

JJJ and Russ on LC *marker(34,35)*
-Votes to kill LC -2 (-1)
}
LC is no longer safe

Golden on Cornett *marker(36)* {
-Votes to kill LC +1 (0)

Zebra DOESN’T save LC at *(37)*
-LC is in danger at 0

LC tries to save himself… } End

Now, I created a point system to analyze this based upon my personal scumtells:

Increasing LC's survival number gets 1 scumpoint
Leaving LC on a + number without affecting it gets 2 scumpoints
Increasing LC's survival number from -1 to 0 gets 3 scumpoints
Increasing LC's survival number from 0 to 1 gets 4 scumpoints

leaving LC's survival number on 0 gets no points

Decreasing LC's survival number by 1 gets -1 scumpoint
Leaving LC on a - number without affecting it gets -2 scumpoints
decreasing LC's survival number from 1 to 0 gets -3 scumpoints
decreasing LC's survival number from 0 to -1 gets -4 scumpoints

Points are multiplied by a value determined by their timing, or marker number, here's the key:
Marker 0-5 = *1
Marker 5-15 = *2
Marker 15-25 = *3
Marker 25-35 = *4
Marker 35+ = *5
(greater value is non-inclusive, i.e. marker 5 would be ruled as *2)

Final scumpoint values without organization:

• MM: 1
  Floyd: 2
  Devin: 4
  RDW: 4
  Strawhenge: 2
  Choutas: -2
  MacDougall: 4
  Roxy: 6
  Sig: -3
  Seaside: -3
  DrWilgy: -3
  FZ: 6
  Bullzeye: 6
  Sorsha: 6
  Rico: 6
  Llama: 6
  Matt F: 8
  Epi: 4
  Bea: 4
  Dinny: 8
  Espers: 8
  Motel Room: -4
  Bcornett: -4
  Elohchin: 8
  JJJ: -12
  Russ: -20
  Golden: 15
  Zebra: 0

Now organized with color:

• Russ -20
  JJJ -12
  Bcornett -4
  Motel Room -4
  DrWilgy -3
  Sig -3
  Seaside -3
  Choutas -2
  Zebra 0
  MM 1
  Floyd 2
  Strawhenge 2
  Devin 4
  RDW 4
  MacDougall 4
  bea 4
  Epi 4
  Roxy 6
  FZ 6
  Bullzeye 6
  Sorsha 6
  Rico 6
  Llama 6
  Matt F 8
  Dinny 8
  Espers 8
  Elohchin 8
  Golden 15

Vote changed to Golden

I'm going to bed now... that took me afew hours...

...so perhaps the real team isn't even on that list of yours.

[a2thezebra]

Zebra, you posted enough to counter my previous read; that's why I let that suspicion drop. I'm changing my vote to Tranq in hopes of countering the other wagon, which I don't like.

I don't buy it. Post count doesn't mean a thing and I think you know that. I rarely see civs let their suspicions drop before their targets even acknowledge the issue they brought up. If you really changed my mind based on my posts then I would be interested to see a specific post that inspired you to.

[a2thezebra]

*changed your mind

[bea]

Ok zeeb I will follow. Tranq it is. He can call me a nub later if he so desires. It's my title and I wear it well.

I'm still dying. Work is stupid. I hate pizza.

[DrWilgy]

See here's the thing though, I was scum then, I had no goal in making those stats other than wanting to look like a civ. I'm trying my best to use the analyses to figure out who scum team is.

I missed a step of the dance Zebra, do forgive me, and allow me to fully explain why I like that option.

Boomslang - I'm suspicious of Boomslang from yesterday, his thoughts of me defending Tranq threw me for a loop. Honestly it's lingering doubt, and I haven't reassessed him since.

Tranq - You make a good point on tranq, but I disagree with lynching a wallflower at this point, I feel that chances are higher that we will hit a civ if we lynch tranq today, rather than you. Lynching a mafia is too important at this time for me to take that chance.

MM, or you being the leading suspicions of the "anyone who isn't" category is the last slot, but If you are the baddie though in that trio, I would assume Zebra, Boomslang, and Choutas to be more likely than Zebra, Boomslang, Tranq and didn't mention you over MM.

[Marmot]

Ok zeeb I will follow. Tranq it is. He can call me a nub later if he so desires. It's my title and I wear it well.

I'm still dying. Work is stupid. I hate pizza.

Are you a member of mafia bea?

[Tangrowth]

DAY 2

Who killed FZ.?

Poll ended at Mon Nov 16, 2015 8:15:10 pm


a2thezebra
5
DrWilgy (2), Enrique (6), TheFloyd73 (8), Luke11646 (9), Tranq (10) 31%
bea
0
No votes
Boomslang
0
No votes
Choutas
0
No votes
DrWilgy
1
Choutas (5) 6%
Enrique
0
No votes
Luke11646
0
No votes
Matt F
0
No votes
Metalmarsh89
0
No votes
TheFloyd73
1
Matt F (7) 6%
Tranq
4
a2thezebra (13), Metalmarsh89 (14), Boomslang (15), bea (16) 25%
Wouldn't it be nice if I knew? (deadies, non-players)
4
bcornett24 (3), Sorsha (4), FZ. (11), Golden (12) 25%
Wouldn't it be nice if I didn't know? (host)
1
MovingPictures07 (1) 6%
Total votes : 16

[Tangrowth]

"That's Not Z"

I had to prove that I could make it alone
But that's not me
I wanted to show how independent I'd grown now
But that's not me

I could try to be big in the eyes of the thread
What matters to me is what I could be before I was dead

I'm a little bit scared
Cause I haven't been lynched in a long time
You needed my vote
And I know that I left at the wrong time
The spectators I tell them
Tell 'em what I was up to said that's not me

I went through all kinds of changes
Took a look at corpse and said that's not me
I miss my bod and the posters I've known
And every night as I laid there alone I did dream

I once had a dream
So I posted and hunted for the scum
I soon found out that my townie life wasn't so pretty
I'm glad I went now I'm that much more sure that we're ready

I once had a dream
So I posted and hunted for the scum


a2thezebra has been lynched. She was a vanilla civilian and "That's Not Me".

It is now Night 2. You have 24 hours to silently mourn the death of a2thezebra. If you are the mafia, send in your kill.

[Tangrowth]

"Don't Talk (Put Your Head on My Marmot)"

I can hear so much in your sighs
And I can see so much in your eyes
There are words we both could say
But don't talk, put your head on my marmot

Come close, close your eyes and be still
Don't talk, take my marmot, let it hear your heart beat
Being here with you feels so right
We could live forever tonight
Lets not think about tomorrow
And don't talk put your head on my marmot

Come close, close your eyes and be still
Don't talk, take my marmot, listen to its heart beat
Listen, listen, listen...

Don't talk, put your head on my marmot
Don't talk, close your eyes and be still
Don't talk, put your head on my marmot
Don't talk, close your eyes and be still
Don't talk, put your head on my marmot


Metalmarsh89 has been killed by the mafia. He was a vanilla civilian and "Don't Talk (Put Your Head on My Shoulder)".

It is now Day 3. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.

[Golden]

"Don't Talk (Put Your Head on My Marmot)"

Entirely disturbing.

[Tangrowth]

"Don't Talk (Put Your Head on My Marmot)"

Entirely disturbing.

[bea]

Ok zeeb I will follow. Tranq it is. He can call me a nub later if he so desires. It's my title and I wear it well.

I'm still dying. Work is stupid. I hate pizza.

Are you a member of mafia bea?

No. I am not. Also rip.

[TheFloyd73]

RIP Zebra, I feel awful that I've helped lynch a fellow civ.

[DrWilgy]

Welp... I'm going to take a step back and relook things. I'll let y'all discuss without me for awhile.

[Matt]

RIP Zebra and Marsh



Okay, I'm still down with a Floyd lynch, but after reviewing the polls, I think a read on Wilgy and Tranq is a good idea. I noticed they both voted Zebra on Day 1, avoiding the bcornett lynch and then both helped lynch Zebra on Day 2. I remember Wilgy made the statistical post about how the mafia doesn't vote together early, so I'm wondering if that was a nice little "haha see what I did there?" move by him. I'm pretty sure Wilgy also slightly defended Tranq early in the game too. I'll reread both but that'd be swell if everyone did the same.

bea - Do you have any suspicions? What do you think of Wilgy, Tranq, and Floyd?

[Enrique]

Welp... I'm going to take a step back and relook things. I'll let y'all discuss without me for awhile.

Wait, what, seriously? We just lost two of our biggest voices witj A2Z and MM and at this point we have hardly any direction. We need all the disussion possible or we're completely and utterly doomed.

Zebra, I'm sorry I couldn't get back in time. I left my vote on you not because I thought it'd be a mislynch (obviously), but I was afraid I was being manipulated and thought it'd be safer to stick to my guns.

Clearly I was wrong. RIP.

[Matt]

Do you have any current thoughts Enrique? I noticed you just lectured Wilgy for leaving suddenly but then you didn't voice any real thoughts of your own either.

[Enrique]

My most prominent thought is that I'm really bad at Mafia, and I should probably look over this whole Tranq dealio ASAP, and well... pretty much revisit everyone else bc at this point I'm just lost.

[Choutas]

Who was the guy the Marmot and the Zebra voted? Wilgy.
Wilgy

[Boomslang]

Man, it's an animal slaughterhouse out there... RIP MM and Zebra.

Regarding Wilgy and Tranq, I don't think they're both mafia, based on this post alone:

why the Choutas vote other than simple revenge?

I asked who to vote for and DrWilgy responded.

Two Pets in one Sound.

WIFOM nonwithstanding, I doubt that mafia teammates would acknowledge that direct influence so clearly. Especially with Tranq being such a low poster, where every post can be scrutinized. I don't like how Wilgy is deciding to step back after the bad lynch result, but I really don't like how Tranq just shrugged off his Zebra vote as temporary very early in the day, then never bothered to explain it or move it to someone else. It was a close lynch, and when he saw the momentum gathering against him, I think he figured it'd be better to lay low and maintain his advantage than try to defend himself.

That won't work this time around. *votes Tranq* Calling you out.

[DrWilgy]

Who was the guy the Marmot and the Zebra voted? Wilgy.
Wilgy

Why?

Yeah, I need to back off. I will answer questions, but need time to think. I tunneled way too hard, also I'm an idiot. Maybe backing off will give the non idiots time to post.

[Matt]

Choutas - Besides Wilgy, what are you thinking? The bulk of your posts aren't about much, and in the few that you suspect Wilgy, you say "Voting Wilgy until a better case forms" and then "Voting Wilgy cuz two dead civs voted for him".

[Tranq]

I don't like how Wilgy is deciding to step back after the bad lynch result, but I really don't like how Tranq just shrugged off his Zebra vote as temporary very early in the day, then never bothered to explain it or move it to someone else. It was a close lynch, and when he saw the momentum gathering against him, I think he figured it'd be better to lay low and maintain his advantage than try to defend himself.

I ended up being afk for the rest of the day. Beer-related reasons

I have a gut civ read on DrWilgy and Enrique. No idea on who's bad so far.

[Enrique]

Who was the guy the Marmot and the Zebra voted? Wilgy.
Wilgy

Why?

Yeah, I need to back off. I will answer questions, but need time to think. I tunneled way too hard, also I'm an idiot. Maybe backing off will give the non idiots time to post.

Well that's one way to avoid responsibility.

[Enrique]

Choutas - Besides Wilgy, what are you thinking? The bulk of your posts aren't about much, and in the few that you suspect Wilgy, you say "Voting Wilgy until a better case forms" and then "Voting Wilgy cuz two dead civs voted for him".

His logic kinda makes sense to me. Since yesterday, most opposition to Wilgy has disappeared. I don't know if Choutas is right but that's not a terrible case to make.

[DrWilgy]

What responsibility am I avoiding? as far as I can tell, the everyone has been avoiding that responsibility as well.

It's been 5 hours since my last post, there have been 4 posts since. That is less than one post per hour since I've taken a step back.

I've been asking Choutas to explain his suspicion on me for the past 2-3 irl days, and I still haven't seen anything.

Boomslang what don't you like about me stepping back?

A note: It's now 7-3, and we have 2 more chances to lynch a baddie.

[DrWilgy]

Choutas - Besides Wilgy, what are you thinking? The bulk of your posts aren't about much, and in the few that you suspect Wilgy, you say "Voting Wilgy until a better case forms" and then "Voting Wilgy cuz two dead civs voted for him".

His logic kinda makes sense to me. Since yesterday, most opposition to Wilgy has disappeared. I don't know if Choutas is right but that's not a terrible case to make.

What case?

[DrWilgy]

If it seems that I'm frustrated, it's because I am. This is my 100th post, Luke hasn't broken single digits, Choutas, Tranq, Floyd are all 13 or lower, and there's no way all 4 of them are scum.

[DrWilgy]

I mean, at least I've seen that Floyd has tried to scum hunt, but if I ever have a thought about Tranq, Floyd, or Chou, do you know what my brain does? It goes blank!

[Enrique]

Choutas - Besides Wilgy, what are you thinking? The bulk of your posts aren't about much, and in the few that you suspect Wilgy, you say "Voting Wilgy until a better case forms" and then "Voting Wilgy cuz two dead civs voted for him".

His logic kinda makes sense to me. Since yesterday, most opposition to Wilgy has disappeared. I don't know if Choutas is right but that's not a terrible case to make.

What case?

It's an astute observation. Two of your voters just went down. Now you're backing away from discussion. Your chances of getting lynched just went down considerably.

I agree, though, it's frustrating to have half the living players hiding in the shadows. Which is why I think you need to stay and help bring them out, not just join them.

[DrWilgy]

Astute observation? or set up? a forced WIFOM situation I'm presuming. I think it also weakens his case in the fact that I asked several times for a full answer on why he wanted to lynch me yesterday and never received an answer.

I don't consider my chances of getting lynched any worse or better than previous, especially considering I'm one of 2 votes, almost 19 hours into this day phase.

I can't force them to be at their computer, or less, respond Enrique. I can vote for them, maybe lynch them, but the problem here is that I don't like lynching people for no reason.

Being honest our chances of getting to LYLO tomorrow are pretty high, and I'd be down to pluck a wallflower before we find ourselves in this situation, also gamble on hitting a mafia.

Out of all the low posters, who would you like to vote for Enrique?

[DrWilgy]

Wait a second, Im a mega dummy. Both MM and Zebra were on Tranq, not me. Choutas wut?

[DrWilgy]

see you

[Enrique]

One of Floyd and Choutas, I guess. I've felt better about Floyd as the game has gone on but there's so little to go by. Choutas is getting sharper. You're right it could be a setup, but the funny part is that he chose this phase to grow a tongue.

I feel indifferent towards Tranq. Bea and Luke are practically non-entities at this point.

linki: oh... what

[DrWilgy]

Aaaaand Chou is gone...

[DrWilgy]

ZZZ...

[Golden]

This thread feels like it needs a non-player invasion.