[DAY 9] Turf Wars: Prison Edition

Phoebe Buffay · #41

I'm on my way out the door but i do want to add to this that I think the original prisoners would probably vote for an original prisoner and I agree that prisoner is probably 813. There is a possibility they would vote 606 due to his extraordinary efforts through the night in both posting events but 813 has kept records that have proven helpful (which if you're paroled 813 I expect you to info dump to us before you leave!

) as well as participating a lot in the posting challenge. There is probably evidence from our first challenges as well that I just don't remember. So all in all, I'm in agreement with an 813 answer.

Gunther · #42

Very well. Now we need to discuss our confidence in this answer and turn that into a wager. If it seems obvious to us, then I think a bold full-scale bet may be warranted. After all, why make 50 points when we can earn... 100? *puts pinkie to his mouth*

But if you think it's not a sure thing, we should discuss wager amounts. At the current rate of 6-8 hours for each "Q&A session," we may anticipate somewhere between six and seven questions in total. That means that if we play it safe with 50-point wagers, we could earn a maximum of 300-350 points, assuming we don't get any wrong. Obviously, if/when we reach the 750 point mark we should just bet 0 points from that point on to ensure victory.

Gunther · #43

Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?

#44

Prisoner 813142 wrote:Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?

Yes.

Gunther · #45

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Prisoner 813142 wrote:Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?
Yes.

Riiight. Well, I asked my question to Spacedaisy because she was lurking. I wasn't expecting Sock-Man to answer. In the words of my brother, "That's not your hostess! It's a man, baby."

#46

Prisoner 813142 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Prisoner 813142 wrote:Question for our lurking hostess: Does Group 1 know that they can pick from all prisoners and not just their group? Has that been specified to them as it has to us?
Yes.
Riiight. Well, I asked my question to Spacedaisy because she was lurking. I wasn't expecting Sock-Man to answer. In the words of my brother, "That's not your hostess! It's a man, baby."

I had left my window open, sorry about that.

Saito · #47

Prisoner 813142 wrote:Very well. Now we need to discuss our confidence in this answer and turn that into a wager. If it seems obvious to us, then I think a bold full-scale bet may be warranted. After all, why make 50 points when we can earn... 100? *puts pinkie to his mouth*

But if you think it's not a sure thing, we should discuss wager amounts. At the current rate of 6-8 hours for each "Q&A session," we may anticipate somewhere between six and seven questions in total. That means that if we play it safe with 50-point wagers, we could earn a maximum of 300-350 points, assuming we don't get any wrong. Obviously, if/when we reach the 750 point mark we should just bet 0 points from that point on to ensure victory.

I guess since we're all in agreement, 100 coins is a fine wager. But the thing is we don't know if THEY are all in agreement. I suppose it is better to bet big early rather than late. So that's fine by me.

Saito · #48

Prisoner 813 100 coins final answer.

Gunther · #49

I think this was a reasonably wise decision, 277. This feels like it could be the closest to a "gimme" that we could possibly get.

Saito · #50

@Hosts - If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer does that count as a loss of 0 coins?

#51

Prisoner 277058 wrote:@Hosts - If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer does that count as a loss of 0 coins?

If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer, it will be an automatic loss of coins (however much you bet).

Celeste · #52

Good luck all ye gamblers. I have been quietly watching from the sidelines, and I support your decisions thus far.

Saito · #53

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Prisoner 277058 wrote:@Hosts - If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer does that count as a loss of 0 coins?
If the other prisoners fail to submit an answer, it will be an automatic loss of coins (however much you bet).

Well shit

Gunther · #54

It is now noon, Central Time. How did we do?

#55

Group 1 answered: Prisoner 813142
Group 2 bet $100 on: Prisoner 813142

You won $200!
The current pot total is $650

Question 3: Which of all the current prisoners would you most like to shank right now?

You have until 11:00 PM central time to bet on what you believe Group 1 will answer.

Saito · #56

Hear me out on this. We should wager zero. There are more than one inactive prisoners and even with 15's mess up I dont feel comfortable that we can correctly guess this

Gunther · #57

Prisoner 277058 wrote:Hear me out on this. We should wager zero. There are more than one inactive prisoners and even with 15's mess up I dont feel comfortable that we can correctly guess this

This is good to consider. I listed the "post counts" during yesterday's challenge but it was not unanimous on who to shank if things went haywire. I advocated for 153930's shanking if his or her post in English, under the impression that that alone would cost us the challenge. It seems I was wrong about that but the incident could be fresher in other prisoners' minds because of my strong stance at the time. We also do not know if any of the Group 1 prisoners took notes on the information that I posted.

I would agree that caution is necessary given the uncertainty of the information Group 1 retained.

11:00 p.m. Central is quite a long time from now, which means we may only get two or three more questions after this one. I suspect the questions might get harder from here on out. Let's mull this one over for a few hours and get some group input. We may want to consider a lower bet (10 or 25) since we "overachieved" on question number two.

HOSTS: Can you tell us how many more questions are scheduled after this one?

Saito · #58

See the unfortunate thing is that while we dont have to bet they do have to answer, so..

I would lean towards them lynching 15, even though inactivity cost us the challenge, not the English. I might endorse a 25 or 10 bet.

Celeste · #59

Something to consider mathematically, and would also depend on how many questions are left.

Betting 25 doesn't help us, or 10 for that matter. If we lose, we move to 2 bets away from succeeding. If we win, we are still 1 bet away from winning. Betting 100 would be better in terms of reaching our goal.

Betting 50 wouldn't be bad either, it still puts us in the same boat as betting 10 or 25, but if we win, we can safely bet 50 again next round and remain 1 bet away if we lose, and pass our challenge if we win.

Betting 0 wouldn't be bad either, especially if there is little certainty of the answer to the bet.

So I motion that we bet either 0, 50, or 100 for this bet.

Gunther · #60

Thank you for the input, 483. I'd like to hear from a few more people before I make my mind up and add my two cents. We've got time.

#61

Prisoner 813142 wrote: HOSTS: Can you tell us how many more questions are scheduled after this one?

No, but I can tell you that every question is scheduled to come between 7 and 11 hours after the previous question.

Saito · #62

Maybe a 50 coin bet on Prisoner 15?

Celeste · #63

I have no idea who we should shank, or who I want to shank. I haven't really been paying attention until 2 days ago.

Gunther · #64

Prisoner 219747 has not posted at all since he or she joined us in prison on Day 6. The Day 6 and Day 7 challenge did not require full participation from the prison populace, so we simply looked down on 219 for not even trying. The Day 8 challenge required everyone's participation. Because 219747 was AWOL again, we lost the challenge.

Prisoner 331347 also did not post during the Day 8 challenge, so they also bear responsibility for our loss. 331347 also failed to post during Day 7 but did contribute three posts to Day 6.

Prisoner 153930 is noteworthy because he or she joined us on Day 6 and basically said we could shank them first when it came around to it because they essentially want out of the game. 153 posted once on Day 6, twice on Day 7, but did fulfill the posting quota on Day 8, albeit with the one English posting "gaffe."

Given that 153930 was gracious enough to fulfill the quota, it shows that he or she is at least willing to do the bare minimum to help the rest of us. As for 219 and 331, it seems they do not care, so it may be best to "shank" those who won't even bother to show up before eliminating those who at least show up begrudgingly.

Celeste · #65

My gut tells me they would pick someone in their own group.

Saito · #66

I feel like a question is coming up that we'll feel more comfortable betting on.

Bet 0 coins on Prisoner 15

Saito · #67

Prisoner 277058 wrote:I feel like a question is coming up that we'll feel more comfortable betting on.

Bet 0 coins on Prisoner 15 FINAL ANSWER

Oops./

Phoebe Buffay · #68

I just got in and want to say even though I would vote 219 because of my conversation with 813 yesterday (or maybe someone else was talking to him) I can see why the other group could vote 153. I absolutely agree it's too close to call and agree with the decision to vote $0. Very clever 483, great info 813. (that was a compliment not a sarcastic remark to you both)

Gunther · #69

We're past the deadline. How did you we do?

Ned Flanders · #70

#71

Group 1 answered 219747
Group 2 bet $0 on 153930

You lost this bet, but fortunately you didn't have any money on the line!
The current pot stands at $650

Question 4: which of the living players holds the Warden role? You have until 9:00 AM central to place a bet on what Group 1 will answer.

Here is the current player roster:
Black Rock
chaindeath
Dom (replaced Draconus who replaced Mongoose)
Elohcin (replaced Serge)
Epignosis
Nerolunar
Quin
Scotty
Sloonei
Soneji
SVS
Turnip Head

Gunther · #72

Shit. I haven't got a clue on this one. Looks like we'll need to wager big on the next one. Any one have any thoughts? We haven't been discussing the Warden's identity much.

Gunther · #73

Hosts: is it 9:00 eastern or central?

#74

Central. I will edit it into the post, apologies.

#75

A question was posed to me by PM that I think I should be clear about here. You have all now been present in the thread. You can speculate here about the who player behind The Warden might be. Even as you discuss this you are still prohibited from saying anything that might reveal YOUR (or any other Prisoner's) real identity or previous role.

Saito · #76

I think we may have gotten a big hint there guys. If the Warden is still alive (which it looks like from the wording of "current roster", and the warden hasn't been here for the last few challenges... could it be the Warden has been replaced?

Saito · #77

Probably won't be here for the end time so I'm putting in my guess now, but remember guys you can change it.

100 coins on Dom final answer

Saito · #78

Oh damn I just remembered it doesn't matter if we're right all we're trying to do is match their guess. lol. Shit.

I doubt they'd have the same thought process so... 0 coins on Dom final answer.

Saito · #79

I'm also sad we missed the layup of the 219 answer.

Gunther · #80

Prisoner 277058 wrote:I'm also sad we missed the layup of the 219 answer.

I wouldn't call our third question a lay-up. We may have over-thought the question but there were legitimate concerns as to what the other group would pick.

And honestly, this is a challenge that I don't think Group 1 can fault us for losing. We are literally guessing what their answers would be. There is no level of "intentionality" to this challenge. It's kind of like our Day 4 challenge- the degree of guesswork is rather high. We will just have to wait and see what the deadline is on the next question. If it's the final one, then we will have to bet for the win.

Gunther · #81

Don't want to be "picky" but it's now 9:19 am Central. Sooo....

Phoebe Buffay · #82

813 I was just about to post that I have no idea who the warden is. I'm going to do a quick iso of his posts to see if anyone pops into mind but I don't think he will do any good. If not I'll go with Dom but can we afford to bet 0 on this challenge and still win? What do you think?

Phoebe Buffay · #83

Well damn I can only see today, group 2.

Phoebe Buffay · #84

813, sorry I'm not awake yet. I see what you think from one of your prior posts. I don't have any other firm idea except maybe Elohcin who replaced in and is usually way too busy to handle two threads. I think Dom is the better answer though so I'm ok letting the current guess stand (Dom for 0).

Celeste · #85

Damn, looks like I went to bed and missed the question entirely.

Gunther · #86

Hello? Hosts? It's now 10:00 Central, an hour after the deadline. Can we get some results up in here? I'm the boss. Need the "info."

Okay, so I'm not really the boss in this situation but it felt good to say. Just eager to get our hands on our next (and judging by the time remaining, final) questions.

Gunther · #87

Also, since Group 1 is on the same wavelength, I would encourage everyone here who has not yet voted (and those willing to change their vote) to vote for Prisoner 219747. If the next challenge requires full prisoner participation, we know that we cannot count on 219747 at all.

#88

I'm very sorry gang, I overslept. I will get the result of Q4 and the new Q set up now. Thanks for your patience.

#89

Group 1 answered Epignosis
Group 2 bet $0 on Dom

You did not win this question, fortunately you did not have any money riding on it!
The pot total currently stands at $650

You will have to bet at least $100 and win in order to accomplish this challenge.

Question 5: How many baddies do you believe are currently in prison with you? You have until the end of the day place a bet on what Group 1 will answer. This is your final question. Good luck!

Gunther · #90

Alright, here's where it would help to have a note-taker in Group 1. I will provide my analysis in just a little bit. Obviously we have to bet 100 on this one to reach our goal.

Whom will you shank?