[DAY 9] Turf Wars: Prison Edition

[Gunther]

Don't want to be "picky" but it's now 9:19 am Central. Sooo....

[Phoebe Buffay]

813 I was just about to post that I have no idea who the warden is. I'm going to do a quick iso of his posts to see if anyone pops into mind but I don't think he will do any good. If not I'll go with Dom but can we afford to bet 0 on this challenge and still win? What do you think?

[Phoebe Buffay]

Well damn I can only see today, group 2.

[Phoebe Buffay]

813, sorry I'm not awake yet. I see what you think from one of your prior posts. I don't have any other firm idea except maybe Elohcin who replaced in and is usually way too busy to handle two threads. I think Dom is the better answer though so I'm ok letting the current guess stand (Dom for 0).

[Celeste]

Damn, looks like I went to bed and missed the question entirely.

[Gunther]

Hello? Hosts? It's now 10:00 Central, an hour after the deadline. Can we get some results up in here? I'm the boss. Need the "info."

Okay, so I'm not really the boss in this situation but it felt good to say. Just eager to get our hands on our next (and judging by the time remaining, final) questions.

[Gunther]

Also, since Group 1 is on the same wavelength, I would encourage everyone here who has not yet voted (and those willing to change their vote) to vote for Prisoner 219747. If the next challenge requires full prisoner participation, we know that we cannot count on 219747 at all.

[Spacedaisy]

I'm very sorry gang, I overslept. I will get the result of Q4 and the new Q set up now. Thanks for your patience.

[Spacedaisy]

Group 1 answered Epignosis
Group 2 bet $0 on Dom

You did not win this question, fortunately you did not have any money riding on it!
The pot total currently stands at $650

You will have to bet at least $100 and win in order to accomplish this challenge.

Question 5: How many baddies do you believe are currently in prison with you? You have until the end of the day place a bet on what Group 1 will answer. This is your final question. Good luck!

[Gunther]

Alright, here's where it would help to have a note-taker in Group 1. I will provide my analysis in just a little bit. Obviously we have to bet 100 on this one to reach our goal.

[Gunther]

Okay, so here's the scoop y'all. I took a bunch of notes during our one day in the game on who got lynched (which means arrested) by the town during day phases and who got thrown in jail or killed at night. This should help us rationalize how many possible "baddies" are in the slammer with us. If you want all the "gory details" open up the spoiler section. Otherwise just skip down to my answer.

Spoiler: show

DAY 2

ORIGINAL PRISONERS (11):
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Our prison threads began on Day 2, meaning that any one being thrown in prison on Day or Night 1 are among us. This means that both Diiny and Tranq are among the original prisoners. Diiny was lynched and Tranq arrested at night. I have no idea which prisoner they are/were, nor would I be allowed to reveal that information if I knew it. We don't know if any of the original prisoners qualify as "baddie plants," so I am operating on the assumption that there were no such "plants."



DAY 3

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854


Only one player joined us in prison on Day 3 and that was Prisoner 980854, who was actually RadicalFuzz and they were revealed to be a baddie upon the Day 2 lynch. No one was arrested on Night 2.



DAY 4

Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

On Day 4, there was once again just one player joining us, Prisoner 888206. This person was Long Con, who was lynched Day 3 and revealed to be Team Sockface. He was later "modkilled" for breaking the rules and his Prisoner identity was revealed to all.



DAY 5
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 379949
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 509378
Prisoner 513538
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 740359
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 888206
Prisoner 920077
Prisoner 980854

This was our big jailbreak day but we still had new inmates in our ranks. Prisoner 331347 and Prisoner 483934 joined us. I have reason to believe both of them are good because Agleaminranks was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface Day 4 and Metalmarsh89 was arrested Night 4. We do not know Metalmarsh's team but since it seems teams Sockface and Daisy cannot arrest players, he must be good. We do not know which is which nor are we allowed to out them if we do.

During out jailbreak, Prisoners 509378 and 740359 were paroled. It is unclear if they are still active in the game, dead, or re-arrested. Prisoner 888206 was modkilled for breaking the rules. Prisoners 379949, 513538, and 980854 were all killed Night 5 but we do not know by whom.

DAY 6

Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 6, we found ourselves back in prison with three new inmates: Prisoner 153930, Prisoner 219747, and Prisoner 606386. We know that Dragon D. Luffy was lynched and revealed to be Team Sockface. The other two prisoners must have been arrested by the Police Night 5, so we can assume that they are good. We do not know which prisoner is Dragon D. Luffy, nor should we speculate or out them if we know which prisoner they are. That would be against the rules.



DAY 7
Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 7, we found ourselves with two new inmates: Prisoner 126993 and Prisoner 419713. We don't know anything about the circumstances by which they came to the prison, nor are late arrivals allowed to reveal any timeline events from the "game thread." We don't need anyone else getting "modkilled" you know. If we assume one was lynched and one was arrested, then we can assume that at least one of these two inmates could be a lynched "baddie." So as of Day 7, there could be only one baddie among us.



DAY 8

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

On Day 8, we also only received two new prisoners to this cage of ours. Prisoner 541395 and Prisoner 792787 joined us for the day of what should have been the easily-winnable foreign language challenge. With the operating assumption that the two "families" cannot arrest players, then we are left with the conclusion that only one of these two could be a lynched "baddie," thereby raising the potential number of "baddies" among us to two.



DAY 9

Prisoner 126993
Prisoner 153930
Prisoner 208986
Prisoner 219747
Prisoner 277058
Prisoner 331347
Prisoner 413022
Prisoner 419713
Prisoner 483934
Prisoner 541395
Prisoner 606386
Prisoner 640326
Prisoner 650829
Prisoner 714386
Prisoner 792787
Prisoner 813142
Prisoner 920077

Ah, the present day, if you will. Today we are joined by just one new prisoner: Prisoner 714386. We do not know if they were lynched or arrested, so we have to assume it possible that they are a lynched "baddie," which brings our grand total of potential "baddies" among us to three.

Now there is one caveat to all this. I believe that somewhere along the line it was made mention that there was something called a "seemer" role that can make itself look like another role when lynched. Take that with a grain of salt.

So there you have it. If the "game thread" players got really lucky, the maximum number of possible baddies among us is three coming from the Day 6, Day 7, and Day 8 lynches, with the asterisk and footnote that there could have been a "seemer" in play.

Now we must ask ourselves this- do we think that the "civvies" got lucky enough to lynch three of the Police in three consecutive lynches or possibly go two out of three with a possible "seemer" lurking among us?

My best guess would be that there are two baddies among us in the prison population. What does everyone else think about that, given the information I provided?

[Celeste]

I think another thing to look at is how much the newcomers have contributed and what they said. I think baddies would be slightly more hesitant when showing up in here.

[Phoebe Buffay]

813, was the talk about the seemer in the thread indicating that they thought they had killed the seemer or was it just random talk about someone being the seemer?

[Phoebe Buffay]

It just occurred to me that maybe you can't discuss that 813 because it happened in the main thread. No modkills!

[Phoebe Buffay]

Ok, even with a seemer in the game I still think the number is two for the other reasons you laid out 813. I don't think they would have been lucky enough to get 3. I agree it would be nice to know how much the newcomers had participated but I only recall 606 and 153 participating, though for the last posting challenge everyone who was here contributed except 219 and 331. Anyway, I agree with your 2 813.

[Celeste]

Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

[Phoebe Buffay]

Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

I just don't know. I don't know how to project what they will say on this one. I think it will be a low number though.

[Phoebe Buffay]

Where is everybody?

[Gunther]

It just occurred to me that maybe you can't discuss that 813 because it happened in the main thread. No modkills!

No, I just couldn't remember the specifics of the "seemer" discussion. I checked the role list here and it's pretty obvious. One of the Police roles can appear as any role he or she wants when lynched.

Do we think Group 1 will guess 2?

That's the 100-point question, isn't it? What would you (and anyone else) have guessed before my post?

[Phoebe Buffay]

I had guessed 2 before I saw your information.

[Gunther]

Even before I reviewed my notes, I was thinking 2. It feels like a safe and smart number.

[Phoebe Buffay]

Should we go ahead and put the final answer in the thread?

[Gunther]

Might as well.

We guess that Group 1 will guess there are two "baddies" in prison with us. Our wager is $100. Final answer.

[Ned Flanders]

Preposterous drivel.

[Ned Flanders]

219, you're going down.

[Spacedaisy]

Group 1 answered 1 baddie currently in prison with them.
Group 2 bet $100 on the answer 2 baddies currently in prison with them.

You lost $100!
The final pot total is $550

You needed $750 to pass the challenge. I'm sorry, you've failed. There will be a shank poll again tomorrow.

[Tangrowth]

Day 9

The Warden sat behind is large mahogany desk with classical music playing lightly in the background. He was shuffling through the stack of papers in front of him when a blaring siren went off. He knew instantly it meant trouble in the Prison Yard, so he leapt from his seat and rushed out just in time to see the guards subduing a group of prisoners with billy clubs and tear gas. When the gas had cleared and the inmates were back in their cells, there were two bodies left laying in the prison yard. The Warden glared at his guards and ordered, "take care of this mess," before heading back to his office. He would have to write up a report on the deaths of Prisoner 219747 and Prisoner 153930. He hated writing reports.


Prisoner 153930 has been shanked. He was Dragon D. Luffy.

Prisoner 219747 has been shanked. He was Golden.

It is now Night 9. Return to your cells at once.