Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[Marmot]

Elohcin has requested a replacement

Put me in coach!

[Scotty]

I'm feeling overwhelmed by this game this morning. It may have been a mistake for me to replace in as I don't know that I can ever catch up today and provide what I consider to be solid reads. I'm not a nighttime poster so I am really worried about a fast paced EOD tonight that I can't keep up with. I'll give some impressions based on what I read yesterday and the conversation that's taken place since I replaced in.

I have civ reads on Sloonei, nutella and Dyslexicon. Sloonei at EOD yesterday reminded me of myself in the bea vs. soneji lynch in GOC - unsure which way to go and changing his mind as he looked at different aspects of each person - so I empathize with his situation. (Sorry for those of you not in GOC, I know my reference doesn't mean anything to you.). I don't think he was trying to lead and if people looked at him as a leader that was not his fault. I also think it would have been easiest for him to stick with Scotty based on what he had posted.

I haven't read JJJ so I have no opinion but I'll do that this morning. I don't remember having seen angry JJJ before and I don't understand the anger about being suspected. Maybe I will understand better once I read him. I will say I believed his claim when I was reading through because he had asked Quin earlier in the game if anything had interfered with him in the night. But, I know nothing about claiming. It seemed convenient that the claim was of a role that had already used it's power, helping to explain why he wouldn't be a good target for a night kill which would be good if he's bad.

I wasn't reading Scotty positively when I first entered the thread because I didn't feel he was defending himself in a passionate manner like I felt he did in GOC. That has changed however and I have to say when I read his speedchuck post I though "wow, he sounds bad". I got a little nervous though that maybe my comment about Scotty not having enough passion made him think he better do something or risk being read as bad. Also I think it was JJJ that brought up Scotty's anger in Red vs. Blue and I guess he was implying that Scotty was angry there and bad. nutella seems to think he's good because of the hinting but I'm entirely unsure how to read all this blatant hinting and claiming. It's completely foreign to me. I am going to have to read Scotty in ISO again and take a look at Red vs. Blue to come to a conclusion for him as the evidence in my mind seems to cancel out. I know this won't be a popular read as most are reading him as bad and this seems wishy washy. I'll do my best to come down on one side or the other later in the day.

There was competing info about speedchuck yesterday both very good and very bad. I'll add him to my ISO list though I tend to lean toward Sloonei's assessment since I'm viewing Sloonei positively.

Please remember that I'm on day 2 of my day 1. Skimming the thread to loosely follow along is a lot different than reading to retain content and make reads. Everyone around me appears to have a lot of confidence in their reads and I have none other than my good reads. If there is anything you think would help me, anyone else I need to look closely at to help me get to a confident read on someone bad for today's lynch please let me know. Otherwise I ask you to bear with me.

Thanks for coming in Juliets. I basically skimmed most of Day 1 as well, since I was swamped with work. Sometimes skimming can pick out patterns where you're not mired in self-doubt of intense analyses.

As for my increased passion? That had nothing to do with your push and everything to do with timing. As I said earlier, I'm in a happy place, although I was also coming from a shitty situation getting mislynched while being unable to respond in GoC to getting mud thrown at me in this game with more of the same. I don't even remember Red v Blue except that I was lynched Day 1 because Sloonei found inconsistencies with my logic I guess. I make those logic leaps regardless of my alignment so I was angry that that was going to be my downfall in that game. In any case, don't take my anger as alignment indicative- I get angry when I'm unfairly getting heat, however justified it is in my head. I'm also on like a 5 game Job winning streak and I don't like losing now that I've tasted the green pastures.

[Scotty]

Actually, screw it.

I have an exercise for everyone. I actually want as many people's opinions as possible.

On a scale of 1-6, 1 being civ and 6 being pondscum, where would you rank me? In one sentence, what brings you to that read in particular?

[Sloonei]

Actually, screw it.

I have an exercise for everyone. I actually want as many people's opinions as possible.

On a scale of 1-6, 1 being civ and 6 being pondscum, where would you rank me? In one sentence, what brings you to that read in particular?

4. You've said yourself that we shouldn't read your frustration as alignment-indicative, and to me that has been the strongest point in your favor.

[speedchuck]

Actually, screw it.

I have an exercise for everyone. I actually want as many people's opinions as possible.

On a scale of 1-6, 1 being civ and 6 being pondscum, where would you rank me? In one sentence, what brings you to that read in particular?

4.

Since that would be bringing my read up, I'd say that you have been much more focused on town-productive things today.

Because I'm bad at single sentence-ing, I'll continue. You definitely don't feel like you're trying to lie low, and you aren't being entirely defensive. Some of your posts (even your analysis of me, which I obviously found to be off the mark) felt a bit more like you trying to profit town than pull pressure off of yourself. There are easier targets for scum than me, at the moment.

Still a 4, though, because I'm seeing SOME of that. Not entirely swayed.

That's my gut at the moment.

Edit before post: Dangit, got ninja'd by a similar score. Curses. I swear I'm not following Sloonei blindly guys.

[nutella]

Scotty: ~2-2.5. I think you're civ.

And jjj is clean bc I copped him. It was a one shot ability and I'm already kicking myself for wasting it. Keep those items coming so I can continue to be useful.

[Scotty]

I feel like I could respond to all of that, but I'll condense it, in random order:

"1. Hey, look at this crazy EOD flipabout that speedchuck is doing, after saying he wasn't moving his vote.
2. Look at how his reads change straight from scum to town and scum again.
3. Look at how my read didn't change, so I must be uber scum in his eyes, despite him never giving a very strong case for that.
4. Look at how it dashes his reads and understanding of the game when Marmot/mM self-votes.
5. Why doesn't he go along with the crowd and lynch mM instead of me if mM is a scumread?"

One by one:

1. I moved my vote maybe 4 times in that whole day. Better than the ten or so that I usually do. Not sure how this would be scummy anyway.
2. Yeah, apparently I'm not used to scum blatantly buddying, self-voting, and fooling around like mM was doing. I found his confidence and general flippant attitude to be genuine, and was certain that he and INH would never act so obviously murderous and buddyable toward Dyslexicon as scum. It was too scummy to be scum, in my eyes.
Is this a weird meta-thing here, or was anybody else blindsided?
3. Scotty, even if my read/case on you hasn't been incredibly strong, it has been consistent. You have been consistent. mM was doing something inconsistent.
4. Yeah, I don't like when people do that.
5. The crowd was voting for you most of that time, or so I thought until votals started popping up late. I actually thought we were going to lynch you, but then things shifted.

A couple more notes, since you said a lot of things:
I haven't been tunneling you. I made a case and then left my vote there for a while, as I had little reason not to. My posts have not overwhelmingly been about you.
As I said a few minutes ago, nobody would have blamed me if I didn't get a mM vote in by dayend. I was trying my best and barely got it in at the literal last minute.
As a note, your outrage over my read changing regarding INH and mM is exactly what I was feeling at the time. "WHAT ON GODS GREEN EARTH" indeed. Glad we're on the same page.

Like, Idunno. I was a bit all over the place around end of day, but so were the scumspects that I was all over the place on.
You don't have to give me a free pass. But to call my behavior tunneling, and then returning the favor (There's pretty much never a good reason to tunnel IMO) isn't the greatest.

Anyone else have questions?
Feel free to reply, Scotty, if I didn't address something.

Juliets, don't worry about catching up as in reading the whole thread. Having you around is better than having a no-show person. It's okay, at least where I come from, to have someone in the thread that is reading people based on their current actions rather than the feel-good bias of the previous days.
You're doing fine. Best of luck keeping up from now on, though.

I appreciate the honesty over the EoD.
The thing is, you definitely were tunneling, even if you don't want to admit it. Your "ISO" of MM had no textual evidence save for that one post where you shrugged it off. No, you didn't just talk about me, but you talked around everything else and settled on me on the second half of the phase.

The only thing that might be clouding my judgment on you is how susceptible you actually are to the opinions of others here. The moment someone (Sloonei) showed confidence in me being bad, you jumped right along and proclaimed that even though you had other reads, you suspect me more. Coming from a time in the thread where MM had 4 votes already and knowing Mm's alignment, your persistent desire to turn it back to me made me uneasy.

But that's because you were tunneling me. And if you weren't tunneling me, then I'm not doing it to you right now either.

I AM curious about your current reads on people. You stated at the end of day that INH and MM we're either SUPER TOWN or SUPER SCUM, settling on super town. Don't know why you lumped them together, but I wasn't a part of that pairing, since I guess your mind was already made up on me.

I made a point in that case that said you could have been safe not voting Mm at all and forced a mo-lynch, which is a good look; but then I also made a point that you were seen around at EoD so to leave t at No lynch after having one of your suspicions dangling there could have been deemed head-scratchy.

Hmmmmmmm I need to let my head settle for a bit.


What do you think of jack?

[Scotty]

Actually, screw it.

I have an exercise for everyone. I actually want as many people's opinions as possible.

On a scale of 1-6, 1 being civ and 6 being pondscum, where would you rank me? In one sentence, what brings you to that read in particular?

4.

Since that would be bringing my read up, I'd say that you have been much more focused on town-productive things today.

Because I'm bad at single sentence-ing, I'll continue. You definitely don't feel like you're trying to lie low, and you aren't being entirely defensive. Some of your posts (even your analysis of me, which I obviously found to be off the mark) felt a bit more like you trying to profit town than pull pressure off of yourself. There are easier targets for scum than me, at the moment.

Still a 4, though, because I'm seeing SOME of that. Not entirely swayed.

That's my gut at the moment.

Edit before post: Dangit, got ninja'd by a similar score. Curses. I swear I'm not following Sloonei blindly guys.

And thanks Sloonei! I'm hoping for more than just you guys to weigh in. I'm legitimately curious about others that are conveniently ignoring me.

[Scotty]

Scotty: ~2-2.5. I think you're civ.

And jjj is clean bc I copped him. It was a one shot ability and I'm already kicking myself for wasting it. Keep those items coming so I can continue to be useful.

Cool.

Naw, it wasn't a waste. Not sure if there is a cop in the game, but I'm curious, not to discredit you- but which item gave you that power?

[nutella]

Scotty: ~2-2.5. I think you're civ.

And jjj is clean bc I copped him. It was a one shot ability and I'm already kicking myself for wasting it. Keep those items coming so I can continue to be useful.

Cool.

Naw, it wasn't a waste. Not sure if there is a cop in the game, but I'm curious, not to discredit you- but which item gave you that power?

My role card... lol
But I've also gotten an item that I have yet to use and might use today. I'm just saying, keep em coming

[Scotty]

So 10 minutes left to go. The votes are tied Elo-Scotty-Mm 3 apiece. 5 to softlynch.

Who breaks the tie?

vote Scotty

I'd rather lynch Speed but only Dizzy agrees with me on him.

Not convinced by INH on Dizzy at all. Can't read Marmot for crap. Can't read Elih cause she's barely playing but I could see her w/w with Marmot if one of them flips.




So many linkis. If someone has a strong argument, point me to it fast.

Well what do we have here?
-not convinced on dys
-can't read MM
-can't read Elo but he can see her as compatible partners with Marmot??
-votes SCOTTY.

Why mention Mm as a possible teammate compatibility if you're not voting him? This seems like a blatant out in case you have to reference back, you could go "see! I suspected that they could be compatible!"

I ain't buying your shoeshine

Unvote

Vote jackofhearts

[juliets]

Scotty, I would put you at a 3.

I know you say your frustration isn't an alignment indicator but I checked Red vs. Blue and didn't feel like you expressed anywhere near the frustration you expressed here. Plus, I remember how angry you were at that fake peak thing in GOC where you were good. I believe you that your lack of expression earlier was due to constraints of time and internet availability so your explanation that the timing of your passion was just coincidental with my asking rings true. And some of it is just gut. I guess the only reason I have you as high as a 3 is I'm cognizant that my read of you may be colored by the fact that I didn't have enough wits about me to defend you in that final two minutes before your Lynch in GOC and I may be letting guilt influence my read.

And you should know I could never explain a read in one sentence!

linki

[nutella]

JaggedJimmyJay
Dyslexicon
Sloonei
Golden
juliets
Elohcin
Scotty
speedchuck
Strawhenge
Long Con
insertnamehere
Soneji
Fredwood
Quin
Jackofhearts2005

[Sloonei]

Scotty: ~2-2.5. I think you're civ.

And jjj is clean bc I copped him. It was a one shot ability and I'm already kicking myself for wasting it. Keep those items coming so I can continue to be useful.

I was 50/50 on Jay and my vote was mostly a reaction test. I have no reason not to trust you, so I do not doubt the claim. When did you receive this ability and when did you use the shot?

[Sloonei]

I still go back to my initial moments in the game when I asked Jay for some general analysis of a number of things. Everything he looked at pointed toward Jackofhearts being scum. He's done nothing overwhelmingly good or bad since I got here, but the very first look I had at him was as a big red target in some meaty JJJ analysis, so I've had that little bit of doubt about him for a while. I've not talked about him because I have no developed read of my own to share. I should probably quickly ISO him. Work is in a couple of hours and I'll be there through the deadline.

[Sloonei]

unvote JaggedJimmyJay

[Dyslexicon]

Alright. Starting to catch up for real. Inbetween making dinner and general distractibility.

[Sloonei]

Hybrid JoH/Marmot interactive read and general ISO:

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

This post has a little bit of player salad. I am not sure how to view that on early Day 1. Generating reads and content is good. But spreading oneself thin like this is something that I've seen as a valid cause for suspicion in the past.
This was the first result when I Ctrl +F'd marmot/metalmarsh. He expresses a null read on marmot because he's "amusing". Hm. Acknowledgment without substance.

Spoiler: show

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

Caught up to this point. Still feel this way about all these players.

Feeling positive towards Fred but that may just be because I want him to play more better (i.e. more scumhunting, less waiting around for night results) and I know he's capable of playing more better cause he's a bright fellow (falling into the middle of the "clutch realmser" tier who can solve games once all the clues are out but rarely gets out there and creates the clues during the day) and I see him trying to play more better.

But does that make him a townie? "Probably" says other people. "We'll see" says me. Same for Silver but with the added fearless townie bonus.

I don't like Nachos's "okay, I've found scum" and "these folks are obviously town" posts. Like, bro, you had me fooled last game but I don't get the impression you're THAT good, know what I mean? Has Sorsha/Sonjei's problem of me only ever playing with scum Nacho (and 10 years ago over the top bulldog townie Nacho) so I can't answer "but would he do this anyway as a townie?"

Loving everything from JJJ and Nutella


Half rainbow:
GREEN
Jack
JTrips
Nut
Silver
No avatar guy. Speedchuck?
LIGHT GREEN
Quin
Fred
Golden
YELLOW
Marmot
LC
Sig
ORANGE
Sorsha
Nacho
Sonjei
That guy who looks like Scotty but isn't Scotty. Who was like "I lied about my town read"
RED
Dizzy

Sort of kind of fleshed out thoughts on Fred, but not really. This is essentially a paragraph of JoH shrugging at Fredwood. I'm not a fan of that. Then he gives a colorblind rainbow list with Marmot still in the nullish area.

Spoiler: show

Dizzy's slip options:

A. The slip was an accident. Dizzy covered it up by finding an example from a previous game.

B. The slip was on purpose to win town points.

C. The slip was on purpose, to cause an uproar on D1 and provide actual discussion, as a sacrificial catalyst. AKA For Teh LOLs


In option A, the following would have to be true:

-Dizzy happened to slip, as well as slip twice more in the same post: a. calling for lurker lynches early in the day, and b. claiming reads but not giving them. This is BLATANT slipping, so we'd have to assume Dizzy has no idea how to mafia.

-Dizzy happened to remember an insignificant post among all posts, one that didn't garner much attention. He did this while under pressure.

-Coincidentally, the mafia number in this game would have to be the same as the fakeslip from the other game (which, by the way, didn't reveal the number of mafia either)

-Coincidentally, the slip in this game would have to be the same as the type of fakeslip in the other game, but yet real

Possible? I guess. Not very likely at all. Imagine:
"Oh crap, I messed up. Luckily, I remember a time when I made an almost identical post under similar circumstances, but completely on purpose. WHAT A STROKE OF LUCK!"
This sounds ridiculous.


Option B is viable, though a stupid strategy, as we see how well that went.


Option C allows for the fakeslip to be a plan, without giving Dizzy too much credit for thinking everything out.

Explain how Option B is not a viable scum move.

Current players with heavy suspicion of Dizzy: Silver, Marmot, LC
Current players with heavy suspicion of Dizzy that is actually related to slipgate that has not caused others to suspect them: Silver

Current players defending Dizzy: Speedchuck, JJJ
Current players calling it null or giving a slight town read on Dizzy: Quin, Nut, JoH, Golden, Fred, Straw

I call that a net win if Dizzy is scum, especially considering the general trust placed in JJJ, Nut, Quin and Golden.

Additionally, there was never a danger that Dizzy would be lynched for actual slip as he had the exact same move from another game in his back pocket to link to.



Explain how Option C is a good town move.

The only gain the town has gotten from all of this is maaaaybe a lead on LC for going at it when he should have backed off ("It's the dishonesty of it that gets me.") and maaaaaaybe a lead on Marmot for not reacting enough to it. Both of those are fairly large stretches and certainly not definitive without a flip.

Do you think Marmot or LC are scum?

This post is more about Dizzy and Speedchuck but Metalmarsh is referenced as a "maaaaaaybe" suspect after a "fairly large stretch". I don't object to the commentary about the fake slip here. It looks more like Devil's Advocate than true suspicion. There could be an argument that he's framing Dizzy in a negative light but, again, that's just the nature of playing Devil's Advocate. But then his next post appears much more like genuine criticism of Dizzy. I am less fond about that, but I don't think it's totally bogus.

His next post after that is a revised rainbow where marmot is suddenly green. A few posts ago he was teetering on the brink of maybe just maybe being a suspect, but now something has changed and he's shot from null-or-worse to green.

Spoiler: show

Revised rainbow:
Jack
Quin
Golden (deserves iso)
Nut
Silver
Marmot
JTrips (deserves iso)
Scotty
Fred
Sig
*basically everyone else who hasn't posted much*
Dizzy
Sonjei
Straw
Sorsha
LC (deserves iso)
Nacho
Speedchuck (deserves iso)


Kinda an ugly rainbow. Some players defending Dizzy made them go up. Some players defending Dizzy made them go down. Same for players attacking Dizzy. A lot of this is based on HOW they attacked or defended. So I don't expect this to be an accurate representation of the players in the end cause some of my top suspects are unlikely w/w teammates. It does reflect my willingness to lynch them at this stage of the game. No red because I'm not that confident in my reads, either. Most of the oranges only have a small number of posts that I dislike. Marking a few players to ISO later because they've moved significantly, which means I may be overvaluing certain posts. Anywho.



Anyone care to join me in making rainbows? It's valentine's day after all.

But seriously, day ends soon and a lot of us will be busy. Consensus building at this stage of the game would be good.

He alludes to some stuff about how players reacted to the fake slip, but I don't recall there being anything in Metalmarsh's post history that looked good in regards to that, and I'm pretty sure JoH just acknowledged that his behavior was a little fishy. This looks ungood.

Marmot and Dizzy are not compatible wolf teammates. I agree.

Spoiler: show

I don't think it matters how it went for dizzy. I think more relevant is how he expected it to go. I found him at his most genuine when he indicated surprise at the heat it took - and it makes sense to me that if it's normal in other places he wouldn't expect it to be abnormal here.

For that reason, I disagree with the assertion that it was likely that dizzy got lynched after slip (in his mind) and so he shouldn't have seen it as risky. Likewise, it doesn't seem likely that he expected to have to defend it and so he shouldn't have seen it as giving him huge town cred.

That's why I come to the view it's a marmot-style 'lols' play he'd do from any affiliation, and my own town read comes from his other content and not in any way the slip.

Because I haven't got a vote down yet:

SIG

Loving this evaluation of Dizzy's motivation. Makes me feel better about putting you green.

Why Sig?

Nothing Marmot-related here, but it's interesting. He likes Golden's pro-Dizzy analysis, but only uses it to affirm his town read on Golden and later keeps Dizzy yellow, near the bottom of his rainbow (marmot is still green and I'm still not sure why).
This post also spurred this curious chain of questions from JoH about sig. They seem kind of directionless and flat. He would end up voting for sig. I'm uninspired.

Spoiler: show

I have to have a vote that can work as my final vote done in the next eight hours, because there's no guarantee I'll be able to get back (and an absolute guarantee I won't be able to be current with the thread) for at least the rest of the phase after that point.

So, to this end, while I do a bit more of a detailed reads list, I'd really like as many people as possible to give me gth reads or, preferably, a short precis of why they think each of the following people is a good or not good choice for a vote. As things stand right now, these are the people I have any level of active suspicion on.

Jay
Eloh
Marmot
inh

(No, I'm not looking to go with 'most popular vote', but I am already having trouble keeping up with everything due to my limited time, and this will help me make sure I have in the open points in favour and against these choices).

Also @Jay - I saw you said we don't know wilgy is dead, but it looks like he is dead from OP. In any event, because of the way polling works during the day, sprit I think it's worth clarifying whether or not someone who appears dead can actually be alive, and voteable. I'd assume not.

Jay I've touched on a lot.

I've played one game with Eloh where she didn't participate a ton early and she turned out to be scum. Is this scum Eloh I'm seeing or just Eloh? I don't really like the pile on, here, cause it likely won't go anywhere. Assuming she doesn't give us anything to go on, she's a better vig kill than lynch, imo, but others who know her meta better may have a stronger opinion on that.

Marmot looked bad to me early, then benefited from going after Dizzy a bit while I was semi tunneling (and semi devils advocating) on Dizzy. In hindsight, it doesn't look great. Like in Unfortunate Events, I'm seeing some chaos and messing but not a ton of hunting. Scum?

INH. Probably not w/w with LC, which is in his favor since LC looks bad to me. His rigidity on the train direction thing did him no favors. Speed and Silver sure make him look bad (he makes himself look bad). Need to reread his back and forth with LC. I'll get back to you on this one.


Wasn't I supposed to ISO somebody? Oh yeah. Nacho. Maybe later. LC and INH probably higher priorities. Been through Nacho's posts twice already and he's dead. Wish I knew why he changed his tune on Sonjei.

Here he does a double reversal on Metalmarsh. First he claims he "looked bad early", a claim which I've seen no evidence is true to JoH's beliefs, then he explains that he's reversed his prior opinion that Marmot looked good for going after Dizzy's slip. As always, I do not suspect a player who changes their mind, but I do if I don't think it's authentic. I have doubts about this.

Spoiler: show

vote Scotty

I'd rather lynch Speed but only Dizzy agrees with me on him.

Not convinced by INH on Dizzy at all. Can't read Marmot for crap. Can't read Elih cause she's barely playing but I could see her w/w with Marmot if one of them flips.




So many linkis. If someone has a strong argument, point me to it fast.

This is an EoD 2 post that's a little all over the place. A vote for Scotty (I should try to trace that suspicion through his posts next. Could be an opportunistic vote), shade thrown at Speedchuck, and a confession that he "can't read marmot" as well as Eloh, but that for some reason he sees them as potential baddie teammates. My head is spinning.

I can see justification for a Jackofhearts vote.

[Sloonei]

JoH RE: Scotty:
I just quoted these two posts in the above ISO. I am dumb:

Spoiler: show

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

Caught up to this point. Still feel this way about all these players.

Feeling positive towards Fred but that may just be because I want him to play more better (i.e. more scumhunting, less waiting around for night results) and I know he's capable of playing more better cause he's a bright fellow (falling into the middle of the "clutch realmser" tier who can solve games once all the clues are out but rarely gets out there and creates the clues during the day) and I see him trying to play more better.

But does that make him a townie? "Probably" says other people. "We'll see" says me. Same for Silver but with the added fearless townie bonus.

I don't like Nachos's "okay, I've found scum" and "these folks are obviously town" posts. Like, bro, you had me fooled last game but I don't get the impression you're THAT good, know what I mean? Has Sorsha/Sonjei's problem of me only ever playing with scum Nacho (and 10 years ago over the top bulldog townie Nacho) so I can't answer "but would he do this anyway as a townie?"

Loving everything from JJJ and Nutella


Half rainbow:
GREEN
Jack
JTrips
Nut
Silver
No avatar guy. Speedchuck?
LIGHT GREEN
Quin
Fred
Golden
YELLOW
Marmot
LC
Sig
ORANGE
Sorsha
Nacho
Sonjei
That guy who looks like Scotty but isn't Scotty. Who was like "I lied about my town read"
RED
Dizzy

Scotty is a very early suspect. But then this later rainbow comes along:

Left off Wigly

Jack
Quin
Golden (deserves iso)
Nut
Silver
Marmot
JTrips (deserves iso)
Scotty
Fred
Sig
*basically everyone else who hasn't posted much* aka Eloh and DFaraday?
Dizzy
Sonjei
Straw
Sorsha
LC (deserves iso)
Nacho
Wigly
Speedchuck (deserves iso)

Scotty is green. I believe this is related to fake slip reactions.

In this big post he references Scotty as one of Nacho's leading suspects prior to his nightkill, which I suppose lays some framework for a suspicion. But then in this post he provides some analysis that favors Scotty. After this the only mention he makes to Scotty is an indirect reference to Speedchuck's ISO of Scotty, then the vote. I don't see a ton of basis for Jackofhearts to suspect Scotty. This isn't condemning, but it's not terribly inspiring either.

I recognize the irony of me being critical of a player for voting against their stated suspicions in this game.

[speedchuck]

What do you think of jack?

Not great.

Note the extreme tone difference between my question and Quinn's accusation.

Also note that I have disagreed with the Dizzy lynch and put him as town. While Quin, INH and MM were after Dizzy, I was voting Scotty. Was gonna answer Quin's question towards me on Dizzy but figured I'd just clutter the thread with more linkis. Was sure she was town. Had already said so.

Can we be friends again?

Coming back with a full rainbow in a couple hours.

This post makes me feel happy/nervous.
Like, it's a reasonable come-around and I was hoping for it, but also feels suspiciously like backtracking in a slow way to avoid town wrath.
Sry Jack I am catching up and making notes about shifts like this and whatnot. Not necessarily wanting to murder your face yet.
But this post is important.

This, combined with my earlier saying that there is a scum in Golden/JJJ/Jack/Strawhenge (That was a gut feel.)
Good feelings about Golden right now.
Strawhenge is gone.
JJJ just got cleared.

Jack, today at least, seemed like he was going along with Quin (possibly misinformed towny, it's hard to read someone when you don't understand their thought process) without committing too hard, seeing if the lynch could be pushed toward Sloonei/other people that lynched mM.
Other days I've been iffy about him.
Strong anti-alignment with JJJ.
As Sloonei just pointed out, he's been iffy toward Marmot.
I could vote for Jack. What are the votals at?

Secondary suspicions that I want to iron out at the moment:
INH (I lumped him with mm yesterday, because they were buddying insanely. Could be scum taking town town with them, or... blatant buddying. Everything else was blatant at EOD.
Fredwood (Sorry, I've read you as town all game, but if Jack is bad, gotta reeval)
Soneji
Mayybe long con

Scotty isn't entirely in the clear, but I like his posts enough at the moment to not kick up a fuss over giving him time to use his role.

[Scotty]

JoH RE: Scotty:
I just quoted these two posts in the above ISO. I am dumb:

Spoiler: show

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

And for my next trick, I will ignore Fred's last post.

Currently reading Silver, Jtrips as slight town, Scotty and Sorsha as slight scum. Might change those reads when I get further. Like Silver's growling at Quin. Dislike Scotty's fake read and redirect thereof. Dislike Sorsha's two almost random map nominees and defense thereof. Like Jimmy pointing it out.

Wilgy and Marmot are being amusing. Null read so far.

Caught up to this point. Still feel this way about all these players.

Feeling positive towards Fred but that may just be because I want him to play more better (i.e. more scumhunting, less waiting around for night results) and I know he's capable of playing more better cause he's a bright fellow (falling into the middle of the "clutch realmser" tier who can solve games once all the clues are out but rarely gets out there and creates the clues during the day) and I see him trying to play more better.

But does that make him a townie? "Probably" says other people. "We'll see" says me. Same for Silver but with the added fearless townie bonus.

I don't like Nachos's "okay, I've found scum" and "these folks are obviously town" posts. Like, bro, you had me fooled last game but I don't get the impression you're THAT good, know what I mean? Has Sorsha/Sonjei's problem of me only ever playing with scum Nacho (and 10 years ago over the top bulldog townie Nacho) so I can't answer "but would he do this anyway as a townie?"

Loving everything from JJJ and Nutella


Half rainbow:
GREEN
Jack
JTrips
Nut
Silver
No avatar guy. Speedchuck?
LIGHT GREEN
Quin
Fred
Golden
YELLOW
Marmot
LC
Sig
ORANGE
Sorsha
Nacho
Sonjei
That guy who looks like Scotty but isn't Scotty. Who was like "I lied about my town read"
RED
Dizzy

Scotty is a very early suspect. But then this later rainbow comes along:

Left off Wigly

Jack
Quin
Golden (deserves iso)
Nut
Silver
Marmot
JTrips (deserves iso)
Scotty
Fred
Sig
*basically everyone else who hasn't posted much* aka Eloh and DFaraday?
Dizzy
Sonjei
Straw
Sorsha
LC (deserves iso)
Nacho
Wigly
Speedchuck (deserves iso)

Scotty is green. I believe this is related to fake slip reactions.

In this big post he references Scotty as one of Nacho's leading suspects prior to his nightkill, which I suppose lays some framework for a suspicion. But then in this post he provides some analysis that favors Scotty. After this the only mention he makes to Scotty is an indirect reference to Speedchuck's ISO of Scotty, then the vote. I don't see a ton of basis for Jackofhearts to suspect Scotty. This isn't condemning, but it's not terribly inspiring either.

I recognize the irony of me being critical of a player for voting against their stated suspicions in this game.

Nah you're good Sloon. I was looking through his ISO prior to your thorough examination and found that when he put sour reads, he peppers in a conglomerate of things like "maaaaaaybe" and "could be bad?" But especially in regards to me, his voting looks opportunistic. I might be biased (ok I'm biased) but I also don't see the organic nature of some of his reads as they come about.

During day 1, when comparing the "w/w" analyses, he did a good job of leaving himself plenty of options to switch around to without making any concrete reads himself. Aside from his pointed suspicion of speedchuck, that is.

His interactions with MM, as you listed, is a sort of confirmation bias for me. I haven't seen a single read of his saying MM is bad. Just questioning uncertainty, or asking others their opinion.

Though don't just take it from me as being suspicious...lol I didn't even talk to or about MM

[Sloonei]

Scotty has felt authentic today. I'm not prepared to call him a town read, but I think I'm starting to feel better about voting Jackofhearts than Scotty today. That is partly a deferral to others. I trust nutella, and she suspects him. She also has a Town ID on Jay, so I trust his analysis which points to JoH as bad. And I am skeptical of his Marmot interactions, as I just detailed above. That's enough for me, at least right now.

vote Jackofhearts

I'll be leaving for work in about an hour, but it's Monday night and I work in a restaurant so it might be slow enough for me to check in occasionally. If I see something I like I might change that vote.

I just remembered this is a hammer game. I doubt we're approaching a hammer at the moment, but let's all be careful not to end the day early. Use the full 48 hours we're given please.

[Scotty]

I didn't forget Soneji was playing, but I also have nothing to say about him.

He's like a pomegranate drying out in the sun on a hot day. Could still be good when I rediscover it.

Or it could be...


OMGranate.

[Scotty]

Oh god I'm cringing that was so bad. I'd like to apologize to all the young viewers that had to witness that.

I'm taking a creative therapy course right now and it says I'm supposed to stop reading this week.

Like... literally stop reading everything. I don't even know how I'm supposed to do that. But if I suddenly drop off the face if he earth, you'll know what's up

[Sloonei]

I have no idea where these similes come from. Have you been leaving pomegranates in the sun? It's winter and you're in Canada.

[Sloonei]

The last time I was in Canada I bought a blue pomegranate flavored Gatorade because the French packaging labeled it as "Bleu Grenade" and I thought that was funny.

[Scotty]

I have no idea where these similes come from. Have you been leaving pomegranates in the sun? It's winter and you're in Canada.

Nah it's basically summer here. Or so I'm told. It was 0 degrees here last week-

I'm looking at these fucking ten foot snow drifts and the locals are like, "yea, I've lived here for 30 years and don't even know what the ground looks like anymore."

Why live here? I don't get it.

[speedchuck]

I'm taking a creative therapy course right now and it says I'm supposed to stop reading this week.

Like... literally stop reading everything. I don't even know how I'm supposed to do that. But if I suddenly drop off the face if he earth, you'll know what's up

We love you despite your similes. Best of luck with this thing.

[Sloonei]

I have no idea where these similes come from. Have you been leaving pomegranates in the sun? It's winter and you're in Canada.

Nah it's basically summer here. Or so I'm told. It was 0 degrees here last week-

I'm looking at these fucking ten foot snow drifts and the locals are like, "yea, I've lived here for 30 years and don't even know what the ground looks like anymore."

Why live here? I don't get it.

I am currently trying to move there.

[Scotty]

I have no idea where these similes come from. Have you been leaving pomegranates in the sun? It's winter and you're in Canada.

Nah it's basically summer here. Or so I'm told. It was 0 degrees here last week-

I'm looking at these fucking ten foot snow drifts and the locals are like, "yea, I've lived here for 30 years and don't even know what the ground looks like anymore."

Why live here? I don't get it.

I am currently trying to move there.

vote: sloonei

[Sloonei]

I have no idea where these similes come from. Have you been leaving pomegranates in the sun? It's winter and you're in Canada.

Nah it's basically summer here. Or so I'm told. It was 0 degrees here last week-

I'm looking at these fucking ten foot snow drifts and the locals are like, "yea, I've lived here for 30 years and don't even know what the ground looks like anymore."

Why live here? I don't get it.

I am currently trying to move there.

vote: sloonei

Sorry bud

[nutella]

Liking sloonei's points about Jack. I'm feeling really confident in this vote.

[juliets]

Scotty has felt authentic today. I'm not prepared to call him a town read, but I think I'm starting to feel better about voting Jackofhearts than Scotty today. That is partly a deferral to others. I trust nutella, and she suspects him. She also has a Town ID on Jay, so I trust his analysis which points to JoH as bad. And I am skeptical of his Marmot interactions, as I just detailed above. That's enough for me, at least right now.

vote Jackofhearts

I read through JOH's posts and I don't see anything else I can point to to add to this list and I do agree there is enough to vote him but I don't know where the vote is right now so I'm going to hold off. I don't think we're at hammer but we could be at 4 and I don't want to get that close this early.

I'm going to read Fredwood's posts who I had initially positive thoughts about coming into the game in light of the JOH baddie reads.

[Dyslexicon]

Omg. Reading Quin vs Sloonei and then INH vs Sloonei:



This isn't meant to be rude. And I don't know if I'm right or wrong. But I definitely have a different take on this. I think it's very much possible thatn Quin is town. Unsure on INH. (Will continue reading).

@Quin - I don't know your alignment, and I don't know if I'm right about thinking Sloonei is town, but I do in this instance. Anyway. You mentioned something to the effect of "If you did not say you were opposed to wagon X, you were not opposed to wagon X", and I think this is a very flawed argument, although I can see how it would make sense to you. It's just, people are different, and therefore game play is different - not saying you don't know this cause I'm sure you do. But in this instance I think you're missing that for some players a lot of the "process" is actually internal, and not everything shows "on paper". I think this can be said for Sloonei in this instance, and to me his process doesn't look that weird. For me personally, a lot of my actual (attempts at) conclusions is internal and I need to make an effort to articulate them, which I don't always do. You had a problem with my flipping read on JJJ, and I think it stems (at least in parts) for this reason, and I think the same thing is happening with Sloonei. I had been constantly debating JJJ's alignment in my head for a myriad of reasons, actually to the point that I was tired with it and decided it would be best for me to just "conclude" that he was most likely town and I needed to just hope that to be true for the sake of my sanity and efficiency. My long-winded point is that some people extravert their thinking and conclusion process more naturally than others. I hope this made some kind of sense. And for clarification (if you're town), I'm not saying any way of going about things is wrong, I'm just trying to express something that I think is creating a misunderstanding that isn't productive. I can't guarantee to be right, but I believe I am enough to put this out there.

[Sloonei]

A rainbow list. There's still a lot of uncertainty for me and I don't consider myself fully up to speed. I've paid virtually no attention to Soneji and Fredwood, and the Strawhenge read is partially motivated by my desire for him to be town.

nutella
JaggedJimmyJay
speedchuck
Dyslexicon

Quin
Strawhenge
Golden
Soneji
Insertnamehere

Fredwood
Elohcin
juliets

Long Con
Scotty
Jackofhearts

I don't want today to stagnate and I think there's still plenty of work to be done, even if we do end up lynching JoH today. Chances are high that at least one townie won't be here tomorrow, so we should all be working as much as we can in the time that we have to get as much information into the thread as possible. Keep talking about suspects. I won't be around, but I would prefer to have lots of pages to catch up on later.

[Sloonei]

Fredwood, Elo, and juliets are supposed to be null yellow, but I was trying to avoid the plain yellow shade because I've heard it can be difficult to read on certain backgrounds.

[Sloonei]

Awesome, Dizzy is here! Do yo thang, Dizzy.

Omg. Reading Quin vs Sloonei and then INH vs Sloonei:



This isn't meant to be rude. And I don't know if I'm right or wrong. But I definitely have a different take on this. I think it's very much possible thatn Quin is town. Unsure on INH. (Will continue reading).

@Quin - I don't know your alignment, and I don't know if I'm right about thinking Sloonei is town, but I do in this instance. Anyway. You mentioned something to the effect of "If you did not say you were opposed to wagon X, you were not opposed to wagon X", and I think this is a very flawed argument, although I can see how it would make sense to you. It's just, people are different, and therefore game play is different - not saying you don't know this cause I'm sure you do. But in this instance I think you're missing that for some players a lot of the "process" is actually internal, and not everything shows "on paper". I think this can be said for Sloonei in this instance, and to me his process doesn't look that weird. For me personally, a lot of my actual (attempts at) conclusions is internal and I need to make an effort to articulate them, which I don't always do. You had a problem with my flipping read on JJJ, and I think it stems (at least in parts) for this reason, and I think the same thing is happening with Sloonei. I had been constantly debating JJJ's alignment in my head for a myriad of reasons, actually to the point that I was tired with it and decided it would be best for me to just "conclude" that he was most likely town and I needed to just hope that to be true for the sake of my sanity and efficiency. My long-winded point is that some people extravert their thinking and conclusion process more naturally than others. I hope this made some kind of sense. And for clarification (if you're town), I'm not saying any way of going about things is wrong, I'm just trying to express something that I think is creating a misunderstanding that isn't productive. I can't guarantee to be right, but I believe I am enough to put this out there.

For context, Quin and I have known each other for a fairly long time both in and out of mafia context. I got the impression that his skepticism of me was based more on Sloonei the Person than Sloonei the Mafia Player. His suspicion against me was incorrect, but I ultimately felt that it was coming from an honest place. I think he's mostly come around to understanding my point of view by now. I can't speak to how he has acted toward you in this game, though.

[juliets]

Fredwood, Elo, and juliets are supposed to be null yellow, but I was trying to avoid the plain yellow shade because I've heard it can be difficult to read on certain backgrounds.

Yes thank you, it is very difficult for me to read that "null yellow" and also that neonish bright green.

[Golden]

Hi guys

I'm sorry, I feel really guilty that I still haven't caught up. I've been reading bits in my spare time but I'm still not even up to the marmot lynch yet. I have kept up mostly with this phase (but haven't read things like cases or connection posts in detail). The wife's family finally go home today and so I should have a good chance to catch up, hopefully fully, tonight when the phase is locked.

In the mean time, I'd like to make a meaningful vote, and (from my perspective) I feel like that's either an out of date one based on my opinions before marmot's lynch, or one that trusts.

I see, in particular, what feels like polar opposite views on scotty and speedchuck. Of those, speed is the one I most suspect, because I go back to day one where I discovered he criticised my non-vote of dizzy and then I discovered he had actually read the full thread and had seen my explanation. It felt ok if speed was just posting in the moment and catching up, but I was actually expecting him to get to my explanation and say 'oh, that makes sense', only to discover when I read back clearly that the opposite was true - he knew my explanation before calling it suspicious. Add that to the fact he clipped my post and I still feel that wasn't entirely kosher. Sloonei seems heavily defensive of speed though, I don't yet understand that either.

I also still feel quite suspicious of inh and I see nutella is bandying JoH around, and I trust nutella (ps nutella, I don't think that cop check was wasted at all. I couldn't shake residual Jay suspicion and it's nice to have that out of mind) but I don't understand what the case is and I get good vibes from jack.

I know it's a lot to ask and if people don't help me, I understand. But it would really help to have a succinct understanding of the case against, and defenses of, various players on the block.

I also really want to reconstruct what happened at the end of the marmot vote, but that's going to take a bit of work.

[nutella]

Golden I recommend reading sloonei's last several posts about jack to get a good idea of the arguments against him.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Hooray, the game is easy now!

[Dyslexicon]

Still catching up, but like:

Scotty - town.
Quin - probably town, but omg.
Sloonei - probably town.
Speed - scummy as fuck.
LC - suspicious
Jack - honestly reads fine to me, but null I guess, a couple of weird things.
Golden - Scetchy.

^These are all players being discussed that I have some opinion on. Will come back with actual notes/questions when I'm fully caught up.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

speedchuck is probably my most tinfoily town read. I've forgotten why I liked Strawhenge. I'd like to hear a thorough town case for JOH and Scotty, I struggle to see them.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think juliets is A-Okay. Good posts, good words, tremendous.

[Dyslexicon]

Can someone clear up for me - Golden's switch target claim, that was about Night 2 or Night 1? Cause Marmot wouldn't be able to misdirect shit when he was already lynched. O.o

[Dyslexicon]

I think juliets is A-Okay. Good posts, good words, tremendous.

If you say so *unsure face*
I was afraid she was going to be my new you.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My read on JJJ - really cool kid, lots of confirmation, tendency to get down, supertown, single and loving it, knows good condiment practices

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can someone clear up for me - Golden's switch target claim, that was about Night 2 or Night 1? Cause Marmot wouldn't be able to misdirect shit when he was already lynched. O.o

The first night phase, before all others night phases, when darkness conquered the light

[Dyslexicon]

Can someone clear up for me - Golden's switch target claim, that was about Night 2 or Night 1? Cause Marmot wouldn't be able to misdirect shit when he was already lynched. O.o

The first night phase, before all others night phases, when darkness conquered the light

N1 then?
So not the same night Nut said she investigated you?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

N1 for Golden. I was under the impression nutella used her cop thing this day phase given her voting behavior, but I might have missed something. It'd be a clever trap tactic otherwise.