Phenon Mafia: ENDGAME - Snuffed

[Quin]

My role? I'm a fucking stump.

As in the kind that has no vote or night actions?

If I activate.

Which is why I haven't activated. Because if I don't talk then I'm literally a loss to the civs, because I'd essentially be dead.

So as of now I'm a vanilla. Or I could be a Furby that wakes you up at 3am with ghostly tremors

All stumps I've had experience with were able to talk. Is yours different?

[Dyslexicon]

Doctor, bodyguard, and I have a protective ability as well. Though not quite as strong, I'd say.

[sprityo]

"1. Massclaims (Large numbers of players revealing their roles at once) is highly unadvised. Such claims will likely not help. It more so reduces chances of win for your faction."


A reminder

[Golden]

I've been out all evening, so haven't caught up (soooo much posting in this game, and I didn't realise how busy I was going to be at the same time.)

A few notes on what I have seen:

1) I think it's quite possible juliets isn't claiming doctor, so lets not presume she is just by implication (unless I've missed her confirm it). There are other reasons she might have to doubt Quin's claim.

2) Jay, it's true I didn't have much of a progression in marmot. One thing you left out is the first reads post (where I had him as town) was so early that I didn't even have a read on nutella yet. I liked his map cover and the way he handled himself around it. I didn't like much else thereafter. I referenced Dune which was a game where he lacked in any real content. That's exactly what he felt like here.

On the day he was lynched, I had to be absent and had very little time to contribute, so it is an accurate observation to say I didn't push my marmot suspicion much but I didn't really push any much (even inh, who I voted for). I wish I could say who I would have voted for or what I might have contributed if I was around, but I can't. I think it would probably have been marmot, but perhaps my participation in the thread would have seen inh lynched and delayed the marmot vote. Who knows.

3) Today is a clusterfuck.

I was intending to do a proper thinking mans rainbow but I haven't really revisited people properly. So I'll do a sort of gth rainbow for now, and then tomorrow Jay can see what's different and ask me about my thought progression.

Jay
Dizzy
Sloonei
Long Con
Quin
juliets
Jack
Fred
Soneji
Eloh
Scotty
Strawhenge
Speedchuck

[Golden]

I also realised I can post directions for the next several days of map so we are death-proofed against getting lost (in theory, provided everyone listens). But it will take analysis so that waits until the morning as well. Good night.

[sprityo]

going out to eat breakfast, expect votals soon

[juliets]

Ok, just a couple of things this morning.

First, what is a stump?

Second, could someone describe what "protective role" means?

Third, I want to make sure people understand I'm not claiming doctor.

Fourth, instead of a rainbow which seems impossible right now I'll give you my thoughts on people. 1 is "civ for sure" and 6 is "I'm sure you are bad":

Jay - 1 - no change from yesterday

Dizzy - 1 - no change

Sloonei - 1 - no change

speedchuck - 2 - no change

Eloh - 2 : She was yellow yesterday but after I read JJJ's assessment and thought about my own assessment (how much she participated in Unfortunate Events even though she moved during that game, how she had 40 posts in two days in Transistor, and how she voted for herself) I've come to the conclusion she is good. I wish she would get replaced.

Scotty - 3 - This may change once I find ut what a stump is. Is it something Scotty could prove with his night actions?

Golden - 3 - Golden was light green yesterday. JJJ's interaction analysis is the primary reason I have dropped him a little. I need to re-read that in light of Golden's defense and look through Golden's posts in general.

Fred - 3 - I read his posts and it seemed he mentioned Jack was probably bad a lot yet doesn't rate Jack in his top two. I thought this was odd. Fred, have you been burned badly by Jack in the past? It feels like you think you have to keep mentioning him as bad.

Jack - 3 - Jack was on the bottom of my pile yesterday but has moved up after last night. He could be distancing from Quin but his posts feel like he really thinks Quin is trying to pull one over on us. He's not a 2 though because of the distancing possibility.

Long Con - 4 - This is low because of process of elimination. I suck at reading LC. As I told the other group I once handed him the game when I was a civ and he was a baddie so I am naturally wary of him.

Strawhenge - 4 - Much the same as LC. I just don't see a lot of content here but I'll read him again and see if I can get more comfortable

Soneji - 5 - As I've said I don't like the Fred vote in the INH lynch and he's been so absent. If he shows up today I hope he will give reads so I can judge him better. I really don't want to mislynch him twice in two weeks.

Quin - 5 - I agonized over this rating and I admit Speedchuck's answer to my question last night has a lot to do with it. I just don't believe there are two doctors in a game this small when sprityo comes from a site that doesn't utilize that dynamic. Quin's posts come across as very genuine though and I want to believe he is who he claims. With that said, he came across genuine in Mad Max too. He's a master of mafia.

I'm going to pay attention to my other game now and hope somebody wanders in to this one who can answer my questions and might want to give some reads so I can bounce off of them.

[juliets]

Wtf is going on. You people talk too much.

Are we all claiming? Is that what's going on? Sloonei's got a gun and he's trained it against either me or LC now eh? I still want to believe Quin is the good one and jack is the bad one in all of this, and apparently Justin like yesterday, you guys seem to keep talking yourself out of it.

I can claim too- I don't really give a shit anymore, because I've been far too inactive to utilize it my full potential and may be running out of opportunities in this clusterfuck with all these more powerful claims.

My role? I'm a fucking stump.

What does it mean that you are too busy to utilize your full potential? Maybe it will make more sense when I find out what a stump is.

[sprityo]

@juliets, just wanted to let you know. We have had games over at CPI that had a Godfather, but no actual, normal alignment Cop role.

A purposeful thing to throw the town off. But I would never be that cruel

[sprityo]

Let's get FIRED up!!!!

VOTALS:

Quin (1): JoH
JoH (1): Quin
Soneji (1): JJJ


With 14 Alive, it takes 8 to Lynch and 4 to Soft Lynch. Day ends in approx. 15 hours

[juliets]

Somebody please wake up and talk to me.

[juliets]

I just re-read Strawhenge and I'm moving him up my list. He took a position yesterday that was somewhat against Quin and he also has taken a somewhat contrary view on Dyslexicon. I respect his being unafraid to call it like he see's it. He also did reads but I'm having trouble deciphering some of the people.

Sorry for all the posts - I'm just much more a morning person than night.

[Long Con]

Hi Juliets.

[juliets]

Hi Juliets.

Long Con! Thank goodness! Do you have any reads this morning?

[Long Con]

Sloonei, I'd appreciate it if you didn't shoot me with that gun. It would be pretty rude, since I'm the one that gave it to you.

[Long Con]

Hi Juliets.

Long Con! Thank goodness! Do you have any reads this morning?

Still catching up a bit from last night, Jules.

[juliets]

Hi Juliets.

Long Con! Thank goodness! Do you have any reads this morning?

Still catching up a bit from last night, Jules.

ok, sorry - take your time, it was a busy night

[Long Con]

Sloonei: I recommend you consider directing the crosshairs elsewhere. Soneji or Scotty come to mind.

And if you don't feel like executing Jack, Sloonei, then this looks fine to me. Scotty seems bad sometimes and fine other times, and Soneji... I can't remember much about him so worth a shot.

[juliets]

<snip>

2) Jay, it's true I didn't have much of a progression in marmot. One thing you left out is the first reads post (where I had him as town) was so early that I didn't even have a read on nutella yet. I liked his map cover and the way he handled himself around it. I didn't like much else thereafter. I referenced Dune which was a game where he lacked in any real content. That's exactly what he felt like here.

On the day he was lynched, I had to be absent and had very little time to contribute, so it is an accurate observation to say I didn't push my marmot suspicion much but I didn't really push any much (even inh, who I voted for). I wish I could say who I would have voted for or what I might have contributed if I was around, but I can't. I think it would probably have been marmot, but perhaps my participation in the thread would have seen inh lynched and delayed the marmot vote. Who knows.

Golden, on the subject of your progression, you indicate you didn't have much of a read on nutella when you did your first reads on Marmot. I took this to mean once you got a civ read on nutella it influenced your thoughts on marmot because she came out against him. I checked her posts and your posts though and you changed your read on marmot before nutella came out against him. Maybe I am misunderstanding what you are saying about the relationship between the two in your mind. Could you clarify?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Hi, Juliets.

Point of clarification. You have a lot of 3s in your reads but you also list two players as scum by process of elimination.

Could you walk me through what separates your 3s from your 4s?
Linki- Now that Straw looks better to you, who looks worse? You got a ton in the middle.




Regarding Fred (for Fred and Juliets) and our combined meta.

I don't remember a specific time but I'd be surprised if I hadn't burned Fred sometime in the past. I have a few really good scum moments when I pulled the wool over the town's eyes. These were usually with creative use of night powers. I used a note pass to make a townie think he had been recruited into my nonexistent cult in one game. In another, I claimed serial townie Freddy (vigilante that must target a nonposting "sleeping" player every night, like Freddy Kruger. We have short day phases.) when I was the serial killer and targeted a bulletproof player when everybody talked so it looked like I only killed when people missed phases. I've figured out the one major good guy character the mod didn't put in the game so I could claim him, reinterpreted writeups to make my scum character seem like a hero, bluffed info gathering powers to make opposing scum look bad...

Point is, a good chunk of the Realms has a "that time Jack fooled me" story but it all comes from twisting my abilities into something unexpected so that I can make my scum powers look like town powers. I'm a falseclaiming mastermind and an ability mastermind, not a master at appearing genuine when I'm not or having townieish progressions or appearing to scumhunt like a townie when I'm not. HCRealms meta HIGHLY revolves around claiming and night results. I'm much more dastardly over there and I get why Fred could have a problem shedding base "never trust Jack" suspicion.



That all said, my problem with Fred is that he's still being too passive. That's normal for Fred and he's doing much better here in terms of scumhunting (or fake scumhunting) than his general HCRealms style but I need more. What I'm getting from Fred is all talk, no action. His suspicions come from odds (chances are, one of the loud arguers is bad) more than specific points about specific posts looking scummy or dishonest. He's too worried about people being fair to him. What he should be doing is separating "unfair" points into two categories: honest misinterpretations/culture clash from townies and deliberate shade throwing from scummers. He needs to follow his reads all the way through. If I'm his third suspect and he says he's suspicious of me...10 times, I need way more than that from him against the people he supposedly suspects more than me.

Maybe Fred's a townie having trouble adjusting to this style and getting over his ingrained suspicion of me. But I think that he's having more trouble adjusting because he's scum. I think he's being somewhat passive and leaning on weaker odds based arguments because he's afraid to stick out and afraid to be caught in a lie. That's why Fred is scum on my rainbow list.

[speedchuck]

I don't know that I recall a single claim in this game that was actually made for a genuinely good reason. Correct me if I'm wrong.

A list of claims would be nice. I'll make one myself in the next couple of hours if nobody has one lying around.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sloonei: I think the ideal time to fire your gun would be about 2-3 hours prior to the deadline. That will allow us to absorb the result and realign the lynch accordingly. That's if you're here then.

[Long Con]

As Sloonei was possibly gearing up to shoot me, I'd say that my claim was made for good reason.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I don't know that I recall a single claim in this game that was actually made for a genuinely good reason. Correct me if I'm wrong.

A list of claims would be nice. I'll make one myself in the next couple of hours if nobody has one lying around.

Basically agree. LC and Juliet's claims were understandable, though.

JJJ claimed tracker.
Golden claimed watcher.
Quin claim odd? night doctor.
Scotty claimed stump.
Sloonei claimed bodyguard.
Juliets and Dizzy claimed protective abilities.

LC claims to have given Sloonei a gun, implying gift giver or inventor.
I've claimed targets, implying a role that one would prefer to target townies with.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Sorry. JJJ claimed three shot tracker.

[juliets]

Hi, Juliets.

Point of clarification. You have a lot of 3s in your reads but you also list two players as scum by process of elimination.

Could you walk me through what separates your 3s from your 4s?
Linki- Now that Straw looks better to you, who looks worse? You got a ton in the middle.

Read my 4's as "baddie lite" and my 3's as I'm on the fence.

If a stump can't prove himself with a night power I would tend to move Scotty to a 4 because he told us he could prove his civvieness with his night power, then said he got blocked and then said he forgot. If a stump can't prove himself with a night power then Scotty didn't tell us the truth. I really need to know what a stump is/does.

For Golden, I need an answer to the question I asked him about his read on Marmot being based on his read on nutella. If I'm satisfied with his answer I'll probably move him up to a light civ, a 2. I say probably because I'm still reading him and could potentially find something else I see as discrepant.

Fred I want to re-read in light of your analysis so he remains on the fence for now.

You I am only on the fence with because of the possibility of distancing. If I can get over that you would move up to light town because I am leaning baddie on Quin.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Part of me wants to believe the stump claim. Townie janitor, Leroy are weakened town roles, as is the odd night doctor and three shot tracker. So there's some precedence for quasihelpful town powers.

I do have a problem with Scotty saying he was going to self confirm night 2 and supposedly getting blocked, then supposedly forgetting to self confirm night 3 and now he is implying that he doesn't want to use the ability at all, stating he's basically vanilla and that he's intentionally not activated to keep his vote.

I see this a contradictory anti town bluff. He wanted the credit of being able to self confirm and the credit of trying to self confirm without the intention (ability) to actually do it.

[Long Con]

Hi, Juliets.

Point of clarification. You have a lot of 3s in your reads but you also list two players as scum by process of elimination.

Could you walk me through what separates your 3s from your 4s?
Linki- Now that Straw looks better to you, who looks worse? You got a ton in the middle.

Read my 4's as "baddie lite" and my 3's as I'm on the fence.

If a stump can't prove himself with a night power I would tend to move Scotty to a 4 because he told us he could prove his civvieness with his night power, then said he got blocked and then said he forgot. If a stump can't prove himself with a night power then Scotty didn't tell us the truth. I really need to know what a stump is/does.

For Golden, I need an answer to the question I asked him about his read on Marmot being based on his read on nutella. If I'm satisfied with his answer I'll probably move him up to a light civ, a 2. I say probably because I'm still reading him and could potentially find something else I see as discrepant.

Fred I want to re-read in light of your analysis so he remains on the fence for now.

You I am only on the fence with because of the possibility of distancing. If I can get over that you would move up to light town because I am leaning baddie on Quin.

Good point on Scotty. If a stump is a useless role, then the statements seem contradictory - actually, it makes the earlier claim seem like a false claim to get out of hot water. I don't really recall if he was specifically "in hot water" before his claim, though.

[Jackofhearts2005]

I want Golden's night results.

Claiming watcher puts a target on your back. Doing so without bringing forward good information is unnecessary.

I can understand some hesitancy to reveal night information due to the possibility of outing say, the doctor, but I think that ship has sailed.

We already ran into trouble with Golden misinterpreting his information (thinking Marmot had busdriver JJJ and Fred). I wouldn't be surprised (assuming Golden is town) if there was a useful gem of information for the town in those results.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei, I'd appreciate it if you didn't shoot me with that gun. It would be pretty rude, since I'm the one that gave it to you.

Thanks

[Sloonei]

Sloonei: I think the ideal time to fire your gun would be about 2-3 hours prior to the deadline. That will allow us to absorb the result and realign the lynch accordingly. That's if you're here then.

I'll be leaving about 5 hours prior to the deadline.

[Sloonei]

I should look at Soneji.

[speedchuck]

Balance theory time.

KILLERS
Silver Lantern - Town Janitor
sig - Town Leeroy

INFOROLES
Nutella - 1-shot Day public cop
Nachomamma - Town Scientist

JJJ - Town 3-shot Tracker
Golden - Watcher

REDIRECTORS
MetalMarsh89 - Mafia Busdriver

PROTECTORS
Quin - Odd-Night Doc
JackofHearts - Townie-visiting role
Sloonei - Bodyguard
juliets - Protective
Dyslexicon - Protective

??? WITH A REDIRECTOR MAYBE IN HERE AND ALSO A STUMP WHICH I NEVER KNEW WAS A ROLE AND I THOUGHT WAS A GAME MECHANIC
Fredwood - ???
Strawhenge - ???
Eloh - ???
Speedchuck - ???
DrWilgy - Town ???
Soneji - ???
Scotty - Stump

OTHER THING
LongCon - Inventor? Gun-Giver?

DIVINE
insertnamehere - 3rd Party Angel

Based on this, and the number being at 6-7 non-town (my guess based on similarly balanced games from my old forum):

1 non town in Marmot busdriver
1 non-town in INH Angel
2-3 non-town in the ???/stump group
1-3 non-town in the protective (townie-visiting) group (If it's wrong for me to group you in there, Jack, sorry. Best way I could put this together)
0 or 1 non-town in the Tracker/Watcher group.

There is no way that town has this many protectives. Though, since protective is a loose term, it could have anything to do with redirection and weakened roles. I could see three protective town roles in this case, I think.

Something to look at is the information roles. We had a cop, scientist, tracker, and watcher (though most were limited). I find myself doubting Golden's claim right now. Doesn't help that the claim involved an every-night watcher, which seems like power that would be reserved for the mafia team.
I've never seen a game with a tracker and a watcher on the same team, outside of one that I made myself. Everyone considered it overpowered. This is a CF, but still. Watching that.

Please, people. Give me your thoughts on where scum lie.

[Jackofhearts2005]

Also finding my suspicion of Golden going up.

Night 2, we lost the confirmed vigilante. Night 3, we lost the confirmed cop.

If I was the watcher, my targets would have been Silver night 2 and Nutella or JJJ night 3.

Where was Golden?

[Jackofhearts2005]

Mafia inventor/gift giver is not unheard of on the Realms but it is more often a town or occasionally third party role.

Assuming LC actually gave Sloonei that gun, what would you give the odds of his alignment being, Speedchuck? I want this question based solely on power claim, not LC's posts.

[Sloonei]

Mafia inventor/gift giver is not unheard of on the Realms but it is more often a town or occasionally third party role.

Assuming LC actually gave Sloonei that gun, what would you give the odds of his alignment being, Speedchuck? I want this question based solely on power claim, not LC's posts.

Assuming he actually gave this to me, I feel good about him. But I've seen no evidence that anyone else has been giftef any items by an inventor, and we also know that there is a general game mechanic which gives out items.

I like point about Golden. Maybe I'll shoot our cartographer.

[Sloonei]

Balance theory time.

KILLERS
Silver Lantern - Town Janitor
sig - Town Leeroy

INFOROLES
Nutella - 1-shot Day public cop
Nachomamma - Town Scientist

JJJ - Town 3-shot Tracker
Golden - Watcher

REDIRECTORS
MetalMarsh89 - Mafia Busdriver

PROTECTORS
Quin - Odd-Night Doc
JackofHearts - Townie-visiting role
Sloonei - Bodyguard
juliets - Protective
Dyslexicon - Protective

??? WITH A REDIRECTOR MAYBE IN HERE AND ALSO A STUMP WHICH I NEVER KNEW WAS A ROLE AND I THOUGHT WAS A GAME MECHANIC
Fredwood - ???
Strawhenge - ???
Eloh - ???
Speedchuck - ???
DrWilgy - Town ???
Soneji - ???
Scotty - Stump

OTHER THING
LongCon - Inventor? Gun-Giver?

DIVINE
insertnamehere - 3rd Party Angel

Based on this, and the number being at 6-7 non-town (my guess based on similarly balanced games from my old forum):

1 non town in Marmot busdriver
1 non-town in INH Angel
2-3 non-town in the ???/stump group
1-3 non-town in the protective (townie-visiting) group (If it's wrong for me to group you in there, Jack, sorry. Best way I could put this together)
0 or 1 non-town in the Tracker/Watcher group.

There is no way that town has this many protectives. Though, since protective is a loose term, it could have anything to do with redirection and weakened roles. I could see three protective town roles in this case, I think.

Something to look at is the information roles. We had a cop, scientist, tracker, and watcher (though most were limited). I find myself doubting Golden's claim right now. Doesn't help that the claim involved an every-night watcher, which seems like power that would be reserved for the mafia team.
I've never seen a game with a tracker and a watcher on the same team, outside of one that I made myself. Everyone considered it overpowered. This is a CF, but still. Watching that.

Please, people. Give me your thoughts on where scum lie.

Definitely a scum or two in the ??? range. Scotty's prennially unverified stump claim has me scratching my chin and squinting my eyeballs. I have doubts about Long Con's sudden claim (why did he choose to give this gun to me of all people?), and still wouldn't be shocked if one of Quin/Jack is lying.

[juliets]

Fred, when you come on today and after you catch up would you give a set of reads please?

Also guys, just trying to put the pieces together, is a stump someone who doesn't talk or vote? And does it make sense that you would "activate" your stumpiness? I'm just totally unfamiliar with a role like this.

I can't help with the balance issues, I generally don't host and when I do, have help with balance.

[Long Con]

I'm sorry, did you get that gun from an item vote, Sloonei? My mistake.

[Sloonei]

I'm sorry, did you get that gun from an item vote, Sloonei? My mistake.

I don't know. You tell me.

[Sloonei]

Fred, when you come on today and after you catch up would you give a set of reads please?

Also guys, just trying to put the pieces together, is a stump someone who doesn't talk or vote? And does it make sense that you would "activate" your stumpiness? I'm just totally unfamiliar with a role like this.

I can't help with the balance issues, I generally don't host and when I do, have help with balance.

As I understand it, once a stump activates their role, they can't vote or be nightkilled. They can talk all they want.

[speedchuck]

Mafia inventor/gift giver is not unheard of on the Realms but it is more often a town or occasionally third party role.

Assuming LC actually gave Sloonei that gun, what would you give the odds of his alignment being, Speedchuck? I want this question based solely on power claim, not LC's posts.

Assuming that (which is an assumption, considering all of the gift items being thrown about nearly every night) I would give him a 95% chance of town, regardless of Sloonei's alignment. The other 5% is a third party that could joint win with us in some way.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

When did you receive the gun, Sloonei?

[Long Con]

I'm sorry, did you get that gun from an item vote, Sloonei? My mistake.

I don't know. You tell me.

You really don't know?

[speedchuck]

I'm sorry, did you get that gun from an item vote, Sloonei? My mistake.

I don't know. You tell me.

You really don't know?

This thread is really wonky. LC, did you give him a gun or not?

[Jackofhearts2005]

I'm sorry, did you get that gun from an item vote, Sloonei? My mistake.

I don't know. You tell me.

You really don't know?

You really don't know?

[Long Con]

*facepalm* Yes, I do know. Night 2, by the way, JJJ.

[speedchuck]

BTW, just realized something.

Mafia has not been afraid AT ALL to try and murder the most dangerous claims. (Cop and Janitor Vig)
Why weren't they scared of a watcher visiting the obvious target?

[Sloonei]

When did you receive the gun, Sloonei?

I would like Long Con to answer this question for me.

[Sloonei]

*facepalm* Yes, I do know. Night 2, by the way, JJJ.

Oh. Okay then. This is correct.