Catch up Other Notes Post
1. So here's my reaction to JJJ's NK analysis:
In my experience, NK analysis is extremely hard to do and involves a lot of assumptions that if you're town you have no way of knowing. How the mafia team dynamic is and what they base their decision on and who ultimately makes that decision is highly complex and circumstantial and involves so much unknown information that it's basically pointless to speculate about it. I don't put much weight into this analysis and not sure what it's supposed to do or help us with. Furthermore, this is a closed game, making it even more speculative.
What I do think is true is that JJJ would not prefer to kill Nacho himself. What this tells me is that JJJ probably did not (intentionally) kill Nacho. It's possible JJJ is particularly devilish as scum (which I won't fault anyone for) and make this argument while having murdered Nacho with cold blood, but I find that type of argument unlikely, because it's unnecessary.
@JJJ, Why did you find it necessary to bring this up at all though, the fact that you were unlikely to kill Nacho?
2. I agree with Silver that INH's vote at EOD looks bad. I don't get much of a read on INH at all, and I find him to be particularly on the side of almost all discussion. Haven't seen him give much in terms of reads or opinions on other players that I can remember. Who here is familiar with him? Is this normal?
3. @JOH, You mentioned you had a theory of me and Straw being teamed on D1. Can you explain this more? I find it very curious given our interaction even before my fakeslip, as he seemed to get upset with me for my crude way of expressing suspicion towards him. I'm me, so I have a different perspective, but I find it odd that you would view our interaction as possible distancing. You also mentioned D1, if iirc, that you had me/Scotty as not teamed (?) Can you expand on this?
4. I'm intrigued by Golden's unsure read on Straw. I should maybe revisit my own read on him, since I did have an initial bad gut feeling. I'm also intrigued by whoever gave account for JOH being a good scum player and will take this into consideration.
5. Analysing the Sig wagon is all fine and dandy. However, I find it just as interesting to analyse the votes that fell outside of this or the ones that didn't vote at all. I don't find that any D1 mislynch is super likely to have a ton of scum in it, rather I think scum are more afraid of getting blood on their hands early in the game while town is very capable of mislynching on their own. This point can be WIFOMed, but I don't think where a particular vote ended is as important as why.
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At this point I'm wanting to use Occam's Razor on JJJ and just say it's more likely that he's town. Even if I keep seeing things that makes me hm a bit, I can't deny that his actions seems natural and pro-town and just unlikely to be scum. I also would not be upset to lose to a scum!JJJ (maybe a dumb argument, but that's just how I feel right now). I ...don't know. Ironically the whole feeling I have reminds me so much of how I was lulled in by Moving in my first game after initially thinking he was scum. But I'm going to say that ignorance is bliss and Occam has his uses.
Sometimes I feel that Golden acts like I'm confirmed town.
I remember seeing something EOD 1 that made me more suspicious of Speed once Sig flipped town. Will look again.
Suspicions I guess on Marmot/Eloh/Speed, but maybe also LC/INH/Soneji.
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I find it quite hard to get reads in this game, and this is just me ranting for my own sanity. I usually rely quite heavily upon meta. And it annoys me that I didn't stick to my gut feel on Sig, cause that was actually based on whatever little meta I had, but I completely forgot about it. Speaking of, I had the opposite gut on LC, in that he was town last game and this game he feels a bit different to me.
Silver stikes me as more town. The one thing that throws me off is that he will have this stubborn and aggressive discussion with someone (in which I often disagree with his logic, even if I can see where he is coming from), and then suddenly he will switch gears and just go "Alright, that makes sense now. I can see what you are saying". And it's a completely different energy. He did it with me D1 and he did it with Sloonei this day. Is this normal for Silver?
@Fred @JOH?
I feel Sloonei comes across as more town than not.