So Marcher was the headlining act at EoD, but wilgy is not to be overshadowed. At the time of Marcher's explosion (implosion?), the wagons were still relatively close (I think?) and conversation had begun to turn from "Is Marcher bad?" to "Who are Marcher's teammates?" I do not have a clear answer to the question of why Marcher acted the way that they did.
But wilgy was the second wagon yesterday, and his activity in the thread follows a more quiet and level-headed path than Marcher's, but the timeline is not dissimilar. I'd
previously noted that Wilgy and Marcher were not doing much to read each other despite being counterwagons to one another (A Bad Look). Towards the end of the day, but before the madness began, that suddenly changed:
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:05 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 5:03 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:25 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 4:21 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:48 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 3:41 pm
@Marcher Jovian I appreciate your willingness to explain what your mindset was earlier. That's something that people have trouble doing sometimes. But I'd also like to see evidence that you are re-assessing the votes from yesterday in retrospect. Turnip Head was banished and flipped civilian. What does that mean for us on Day 3 and beyond? Specifically, what does it mean about DrWilgy?
DrWilgy is probably being defended by mafia. No one's really defending him and no one outwardly cares whether he lives or dies. It's all been circumstancial. If we just wanted to turn around and go "Let's yeet Wilgy today" and enough people agree it's gonna happen. The one qualm I have is looking at the wagons, it's Wilgy vs. Radishes (vs. Carote) d1, and it's Wilgy vs. Turnip d2. If you're mafia and you get to pick the winner, it still doesn't rule out Wilgy LHF because mafia wants Radishes dead before he can ramp up and if they're behind yeet Turnip they probably believed the claim.
Maybe I'm just overthinking things and should just sheep Ted's thoughts and vote Wilgy.
What are your thoughts regarding the shift from wagons forming on you to wagons on me? Why is this happening if you are civ? Twice now you are the third where I get put ahead of you and behind someone else.
Because I've had a mix of people either defending me or at least calling me null but with potential, while
you've done basically nothing of consequence all game. When push comes to shove, the second wagon will go further than the first.
The hell does this mean?
It means I do not remember anything you've done
At 5:10 PM Eastern time,
Marcher casts a vote for Wilgy.
Neither wilgy nor Marcher are very active for a while as more people plop votes down on them for a couple hours. Then at 7:26,
Mac introduces the Sloonei tinfoil.
Also at 7:26,
Marcher reappears to discredit the most recent point Sloonei has raised against them. Marcher had not posted for 2 hours prior to this. They returned to shade the player called Sloonei at the exact moment that Macdougall also started doing the same.
At 7:
27, Doctor Wilgy
also turns against Sloonei. Literally in a space of no more than 120 seconds, all three of MacDougall, Marcher Jovian, and DrWilgy have very abruptly started three independent anti-Sloonei campaigns. None of these three had been actively opposed to me prior to this. Mac and Marcher had expressed doubts on occasion, but never with much substance or conviction. Wilgy had very vocally called me a town read until now.
To be fair, Wilgy does not jump in with both feet until
20 minutes later, but I perceived that initial question as his first step in the anti-Sloon direction. Marcher's malfunction is
well under way at this point, though it's not singularly focused on me yet. Wilgy's tunnel is as persistent as Marcher's from here on out:
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:49 pm
AND NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO DISTANCE WTF LMAO
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:59 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:56 pm
Marcher Jovian wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:56 pm
WE NEED TO GO DO A FLASH WAGON RIGHT &^*%ING NOW
To wilgy, sure.
Bullshit. Why am I bad? Vote economics that you contributed to?
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:00 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:58 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:57 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:50 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:49 pm
AND NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO DISTANCE WTF LMAO
Wait what
What do you mean wait what? It actually makes alot of sense for you to be tired of saving Jovian at this point. Even your case on OW had derived from a relation with Jovian and it's really easy to read it if Jovian is your teammate and the case was a further soft defense.
i mean you’ve insisted i’m town all game until this exact moment
Yeah, and I thought you were right about Jovian until that blurp of his. You weren't right, you were saving him and putting me as the backup.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:34 pm
Alright everyone. Let's preform a test here.
Instructions:
Select page one
Select Sloonei's iso
Ctrl+F Jovian
Flip through a couple of pages reading the interactions
This is a team pairing. Even several of Sloonei's posts are soft defenses when they don't need to be, while at the same time I didn't see active 'I think you're wrong about Jovian.' It's always 'Let's not talk about Jovian.' and I read him as civ. Until today where his progression is opening the path for a bus and him stepping his toes into the bussing waters. Also take a look at the damned polls, Sloonei consistently is on a vote that saves Jovian and leaves me as a backup.
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:45 pm
bronana wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:42 pm
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 8:42 pm
I'm over this game.
Just yeet me.
No one is listening to me and I'm constantly defending myself against 'Just kill Wilgy.'
sorry
who are your top 3 vilalgers and top 3 wolves?
Village is you, OW, and Dunya.
Scum is Jovian, Sloonei, and there's an argument for Carot that's not really hashed out in my head.
Recent events have harshly shifted my perception of Jovian, Sloonei and OW. Minor changes to nutella. Dunya seems to be my constant town read.
But in fairness to wilgy, he pokes his head out of the tunnel immediately after Marcher flips:
DrWilgy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:08 pm
Good.
Also while I'm at it. I think TSP also has Jovian compatibility. Not sure if Sloonei has TSP compatibility.
-----------------------------------------------------
So what can we take from all of this? It is clear that Marcher had a plan which involved splashing red paint all over me for the last ~hour and a half of the day phase. It is not clear
why this was the plan. But the initiation of that plan coincided with Mac and wilgy also making their own negative pushes against me. Mac's came first but was probably the least vocal. Wilgy's actually seemed the most reasonable, and if he's town a sudden paranoia that I am setting him up for a misdefenestration after bussing my partner in Marcher is not a totally unbelievable theory. But I do have qualms about it:
- The timing, obviously, is troubling. On the one hand it is still baffling to think that this was a coordinated push against me: do three mafia members all agree to step into the thread at the same exact moment and each begin to make independent pushes against the same player all at once? That's a wackier gambit than anything I've seen in a while (except maybe that time scum LC self-voted for no reason on Day 1
), so I have trouble accepting it. And yet, that's what happened. All three of these players went from feeling lukewarm at worst about me, to making me their primary target of suspicion in unison, but none of them acted as if they were together. Note that none of them really leaned on the others for support: they all just stated their own reasons for suspecting me and pushed their angles independently. There was no mutual validation going on.
- I was nowhere near the initiation any Wilgy suspicion. He began to object when I
expressed the possibility that he and Marcher are partners. I was not the first person to make this suggestion and I was
responding directly to a question from bronana (my follow-up response was delayed because I was working at the time, but it was a running thought which began with that question. Bronana is a town-read). For wilgy to turn on me specifically seems a bit unnatural. Why is
Sloonei the player to pin the blame on for setting him up to fall after Marcher? My voice was one in a chorus, and was one of the later ones to join. It seems arbitrary to point at me and say that I am responsible for setting him up here. This is the second day in a row that wilgy has been Wagon #2, and I was not responsible for pushing that either day.
- I was a strong town read for wilgy all game long until this exact moment. To be perfectly clear, a civilian Wilgy is allowed to change his mind about me. I suppose this point might actually belong under the "Timing" header. Call it a sub-category of that. Wilgy had
accepted me as town with
unprecedented ease early on in this game, and did not budge at all from that position until the end of Day 3, at the same time that others (one confirmed mafia) started doing the exact same thing. This coincided with a similar turn against Marcher, but he kind of admits that
my Marcher read influenced his own and was
tied to his turn. But if we consider a scenario where both Marcher and wilgy are bad, then this team is in a rough spot: no matter which way this day goes, they're losing one of their own. And to make matters worse, people do not view these wagons as mutually exclusive: a Marcher wolf flip changes nothing about the perception of Wilgy, and vice versa. They need shake things up or they're heading for a catastrophic couple of phases, which also gives the town an extended period for cohesion. All of this is bad for a Marcher/Wilgy scum team.
The most obvious step to take is to try to disrupt the perception that they can be connected. Straightforward distancing ensues. But then what? Attention is not shifted away from them if that's all that they do. So they move it somewhere else: Marcher targets Sloonei and Lissa. Wilgy targets Sloonei and Marcher (Macdougall initiates things by targeting Sloonei, but that does not necessarily need to be part of the coordination. It could have just opened the floodgates for an opportunistic play). Other than nutella, who has the benefit of a handy and verifiable roleclaim, I am probably the "vocal" player who's had the most public uncertainty surrounding them. My interactions with Marcher and my voting record are less than stellar. It might make sense to one or two civilians to push the paranoia angle and say that I am fooling everyone. Or it might look bizarre enough that people still twist themselves into pretzels over it after one of them flips. An added layer of WIFOM comes in if both Wilgy and Marcher are wolves (and yet another if Mac is also on their team). We need to wonder if they would make such a bold and potentially obvious push like this. It's a high risk with an unlikely chance of being rewarded at all (I'm unclear on how seriously y'all are considering your suspicions against me right now), and draws a direct line between them, which is theoretically the thing they were trying to avoid.
I probably need to stop writing walls of text that end on questions, but meh. I don't have a good answer to the question of whether or not the case against wilgy is strengthened or weakened by all of this. Does a mafia team that features both Wilgy and Marcher do what they did last night? Marcher's play was bizarre enough that I wouldn't rule it out (which I suppose is also why people are still able to suspect me as well), but if they're partners then they handcuffed themselves to a radiator on a sinking ship yesterday. So, like, what do we do here?
Feels like you're her therapist here. Gives me a funny feeling, like you're inventing a way to keep control of the SLOONEI! situation and narrative.
