FYI I am having laptop issues so I'll only be able to play from my phone until further notice, hopefully only for a few days. My posts will likely not be as organized and thorough as I would like them to be. Posting from my phone can be a real witch sometimes.
Anne Whittle wrote:I think I will be loking at Alizon for this next lynch.
She was a big pusher of lynching low posters.
She defended Mary and was actually saying she would come up teacher.
She has been using twisted logic to defend her points with healthy doses of snarkabilly.
When Merga was trying to keep focus on Mary and Entjen she was trying to geit on Jonsdotter.
Her vote for Maret came across as without reasoning. even after re-reading I see no reasoning.
There is more but I suggest you read her posts yourself to form your own opinion.
Yes her ideological contradiction of "wanting to vote low posters" and "voting one of the highest posters in the game" is quite intriguing, is it not?
Anne Whittle wrote:I think I will be loking at Alizon for this next lynch.
Can't say that I blame you.
Anne Whittle wrote:She was a big pusher of lynching low posters.
And still am.
Anne Whittle wrote:She defended Mary and was actually saying she would come up teacher.
I didn't defend Mary and I never said she would come up teacher.
Anne Whittle wrote:She has been using twisted logic to defend her points with healthy doses of snarkabilly.
Then I'm in good company!
Anne Whittle wrote: When Merga was trying to keep focus on Mary and Entjen she was trying to geit on Jonsdotter.
Mary kept plenty of attention on herself. I am free to consider other people as I wish, and vote accordingly. I dont have to accept someone else's case.
Anne Whittle wrote:Her vote for Maret came across as without reasoning. even after re-reading I see no reasoning.
I had my reasons and I expressed them. Just because you don't agree with my reasoning doesn't mean I was without any.
Anne Whittle wrote:I think I will be loking at Alizon for this next lynch.
She was a big pusher of lynching low posters.
She defended Mary and was actually saying she would come up teacher.
She has been using twisted logic to defend her points with healthy doses of snarkabilly.
When Merga was trying to keep focus on Mary and Entjen she was trying to geit on Jonsdotter.
Her vote for Maret came across as without reasoning. even after re-reading I see no reasoning.
There is more but I suggest you read her posts yourself to form your own opinion.
Yes her ideological contradiction of "wanting to vote low posters" and "voting one of the highest posters in the game" is quite intriguing, is it not?
There's no ideological contradiction because there's no ideology. I gave my thoughts, they weren't well-received. I can except that. If there WAS an ideology and I stuck by it, I'd be called stubborn, so
"Talking like a baddie" is the only reason (Malin, I believe) that has been supplied. That's incredibly vague, and has no real meaning to it. Please, explain to me why you voted me. You campaigned for low posters, yet voted a high poster. You have yet to explain this-- only brush it away.
Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Why exactly did you, or Malin, vote for me?
"Talking like a baddie" is the only reason (Malin, I believe) that has been supplied. That's incredibly vague, and has no real meaning to it. Please, explain to me why you voted me. You campaigned for low posters, yet voted a high poster. You have yet to explain this-- only brush it away.
I voted you because you sounded bad to me. I asked you a "why" question and your only response was "..." And you dismissed my idea regarding low posters with a suspicious gamblers fallacy.
There was no "campaign." You are making this out to be stronger than it is. I made a suggestion. I still think my suggestion has merit.
Merga Bien wrote:You and Malin are fond of that Gamblers Fallacy. You both have mentioned this as if it were a term in common usage. Can you explain what it is?
Sure. I'm sorry.
If you flipped a coin ten times, and it came up tails 9 times in a row, some people might think about the tenth flip, "We're definitely due for a heads toss now" or "Nine tails? Next one's got to be tails.." Of course, the odds of heads or tails coming up doesn't change because of past experiences. Its still 50/50.
So in this case, lynching one low poster who turned up good doesn't mean any other low poster is guilty or innocent. When someone says, "How'd that work last time?" it implies that quiet people are somehow more likely to be good because one of them turned up good. If ANYTHING, (in this case), it makes it slightly more likely that the other quiet people are bad, because one of the student roles was eliminated (Cho).
Merga Bien wrote:So...lynching another low poster has a 50% chance of success, right?
So still better to lynch based on suspicions, I think.
Fun jargony term though.
I'm not in favor of looking at low posters because of the statistics~ I was only criticizing the "How'd that work last time?" response using statistics. I'm in favor of looking at low posters because I can see them letting the civs pick each other apart. And if they don't say much, they can't be criticized, can they?
But just fyi, there's 20 living, and 3 remaining baddies, so we all have a 15% chance of being bad. If my math is right.
linki~ huh? I learned about it in school. Where I also learned about begging the question, ad hominem, post hoc, straw man, non sequitor, slippery slope, and other fallacies.
Alizon Device wrote:
I'm not in favor of looking at low posters because of the statistics~ I was only criticizing the "How'd that work last time?" response using statistics. I'm in favor of looking at low posters because I can see them letting the civs pick each other apart. And if they don't say much, they can't be criticized, can they?
But just fyi, there's 20 living, and 3 remaining baddies, so we all have a 15% chance of being bad. If my math is right.
linki~ huh? I learned about it in school. Where I also learned about begging the question, ad hominem, post hoc, straw man, non sequitor, slippery slope, and other fallacies.
You are assuming that all the baddies are randomly distributed. That is NOT the case.
Märet Jonsdotter wrote:Why exactly did you, or Malin, vote for me?
"Talking like a baddie" is the only reason (Malin, I believe) that has been supplied. That's incredibly vague, and has no real meaning to it. Please, explain to me why you voted me. You campaigned for low posters, yet voted a high poster. You have yet to explain this-- only brush it away.
I voted you because you sounded bad to me. I asked you a "why" question and your only response was "..." And you dismissed my idea regarding low posters with a suspicious gamblers fallacy.
There was no "campaign." You are making this out to be stronger than it is. I made a suggestion. I still think my suggestion has merit.
My response was "..." because it was CLEARLY outlined previously why I was voting the way I did. I didn't dismiss anything, I tried to convince you to vote for Mary because I thought she was bad (and was right).
However, you screamed until you were blue in the face that voting low posters was the way to go. Then, you proceeded to, rather than vote the most suspicious low poster (IMO), Karin, but rather me-- one of the TOP posters.
So pardon me if I think you're full of contradictions and you're back peddling your way through the game to avoid suspicion.
Jennet was in a better mood as of late. Mary’s reveal scored important points as far as her confidence levels were concerned. She was again having breakfast in the Great Hall with her peers, when the postal workers flew in, and a tawny owl dropped an even smaller parcel than the previous one right in front of her. She took it in her hands, turned it on all sides, but this time there was no note. ‘Hmmm… I suspect I’m not supposed to open it here.’ Like last time, she excused herself from the table and ran to the dormitory, excited that it might be yet another extraordinary gift. She locked the door and quickly unwrapped the package. Inside there was beautiful golden necklace holding an exquisite pendant encrusted with green gems. She took in her hands and put it around her neck. At once, Jennet rose into the air, not as others had done, suspended comically by the ankle, but gracefully, her arms outstretched, as though she were about to fly; her eyes were closed and her face quite empty of expression. Then, six feet above the floor, Jennet let out a horrible scream. Her eyes flew open but whatever she could see, or whatever she was feeling, was clearly causing her terrible anguish. In an instant the necklace closed tight around her neck and was constricting her wind pipe. Unable to move or scream anymore, she felt life slowly and painfully leaving her. Moments later, her lifeless body fell with a loud crash on the dormitory floor.
...
Entjen was rarely seen hanging out with her peers. She knew some of them were suspecting her of being behind some of the failed attempts at her colleagues’ lives. One day as she was strolling along a lonely corridor she kept thinking how nice it would be if there only was a place where she could be properly alone to gather her thoughts. And just as she was thinking that, a door materialised on an empty wall. ‘This must be it’ she told herself. ‘This… This is the Room of Requirement.’ So every day when she had the opportunity, she’d seek refuge there, where she would feel at peace. That morning, when everyone rushed to the dormitory from where an awful scream came, Entjen found it a great excuse to go to the Room of Requirement. She went in and sat in an armchair, eyes closed. ‘Hello, Gillis’. She jumped out of her armchair and turned around. Vincent Crabbe was standing behind her, his wand pointing right at Entjen. ‘So this is where you’re plotting your next moves. Like it hot, scum?’ roared Crabbe, but he seemed to have no control over what he had done. Flames of abnormal size were pursuing them, licking up the sides of the junk bulwarks, which were crumbling to soot at their touch. They both started running towards the door. Now the fire was mutating, forming a gigantic pack of fiery beasts: flaming serpents, Chimaeras and dragons rose and fell and rose again and the detritus of centuries on which they were feeding was thrown up in the air into their fanged mouths, tossed high on clawed feet, before being consumed by the inferno. Crabbe managed to get to the door. Entjen was not that far behind, but in a moment of confusion, she tripped. Crabbe closed the door, but still got a glimpse of the flames swallowing Entjen in an instant.
...
Agnes Sampson... the girl who lived... come to die.
...
Jennet Bierley has been killed by Voldemort and the Death Eaters.
Entjen Gillis has been killed by Vincent Crabbe.
Agnes Sampson has been summoned back to Tartarus.
It is now Day 6. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.
RIP Agnes, i wish I'd gotten to hear the rest of your thoughts. RIP Jennet, as I think you were good and am sorry to lose you. RIPIYWG Entjen. By this point I really didnt know what to think of you. This is going to take some thought to think through the whole Crabbe-kills-Entjen thing in light of the theory that Entjen used a lynch switch to get Krystyna killed rather than Entjen dying with the most votes. Why would Crabbe kill Entjen if she could have been another Slytherin? Maybe my brain is just confuzzled and this makes sense to everyone else.
Alright, I haven't read everything, but some thoughts anyways:
I didn't notice much (any?) discussion about Agnes coming back from the dead, then the re-deadening. I do think it means that she is indeed Harry (came back because of the Horcrux, perhaps there was some event with her vs. Voldemort, and she was killed again because she lost).
The resurrection stone event was supposed to be held already, but got pushed back, correct? I'm assuming the winner will be able to temporarily bring back a deadie, similar to what we saw with Agnes (perhaps someone started the game with the ring, and that's why she was brought back for a while), or have BTSC with them or something along those lines. It could be a proper res, but that isn't really what it does.
Now, Jennet. The necklace was the one Katie Bell was supposed to use to kill Dumbledore, courtesy of Draco. Now, could just be story, but since Lucius just died, it could also be that, similarly to how Draco replaced him as a Death Eater when he was sent to Azkaban, Draco joined the team when Lucius died.
Entjen's death fits with the destruction of a Horcrux (the diadem)... and Crabbe didn't actually have any control over the wlydfire, so perhaps he didn't get to choose his target (or, maybe Entjen actually was Crabbe, and it was an expiration date role)?
I think I'll do a read of Mary, since there was finally a good lynch result perhaps something there will be useful in figuring out teammates.
JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm
WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
So wait does that mean there were 3 deaths last night? :? It's sad to see Agnes go, maybe she was only alive again for a short while in the first place? What in the heck is Tartarus *googles*
"Tartarus (/ˈtɑrtərəs/), or Tartaros (Greek: Τάρταρος), in ancient Greek mythology, is the deep abyss that is used as a dungeon of torment and suffering for the wicked and as the prison for the Titans." oh.
I guess a kill could have been Crabbe's secret, or there could be something else shady going on... their choice of kill is definitely odd but i guess not surprising, a lot of players still suspected him. it would be good to watch for other similar actions in the future i think.
Alright, well, Britta Zippel is a pretty automatic red flag. Her D1 vote (with Mary, when Mary was in potential danger of being lynched), a very low-flier (no posts since D2, but the person I replaced got taken over before her, and she had posted as recently as D5? Makes me think a) The civvies need a replacement more badly than the baddies because of numbers and b) It could be an intentional laying low strategy and the baddies don't even want her replaced).
I don't see how she can be good at this point, so that's where I'm going to put my vote.
JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: ↑Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm
WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
RIP Jennet. RIPIYWG Entjen. Sorry you had to leave us again Agnes.
Anna Koldings wrote:Alright, I haven't read everything, but some thoughts anyways:
I didn't notice much (any?) discussion about Agnes coming back from the dead, then the re-deadening. I do think it means that she is indeed Harry (came back because of the Horcrux, perhaps there was some event with her vs. Voldemort, and she was killed again because she lost).
The resurrection stone event was supposed to be held already, but got pushed back, correct? I'm assuming the winner will be able to temporarily bring back a deadie, similar to what we saw with Agnes (perhaps someone started the game with the ring, and that's why she was brought back for a while), or have BTSC with them or something along those lines. It could be a proper res, but that isn't really what it does.
Now, Jennet. The necklace was the one Katie Bell was supposed to use to kill Dumbledore, courtesy of Draco. Now, could just be story, but since Lucius just died, it could also be that, similarly to how Draco replaced him as a Death Eater when he was sent to Azkaban, Draco joined the team when Lucius died.
Entjen's death fits with the destruction of a Horcrux (the diadem)... and Crabbe didn't actually have any control over the wlydfire, so perhaps he didn't get to choose his target (or, maybe Entjen actually was Crabbe, and it was an expiration date role)?
I think I'll do a read of Mary, since there was finally a good lynch result perhaps something there will be useful in figuring out teammates.
While I was reading this, I couldn't help but think that there's also been an oddly proportianat number of civ lynches that ended up being Ravensclaw house members. Don't know if there's a connection there or if it is just an odd coincidence.
Wow, so quiet, relatively. I was busy last night, "Vikings" marathon.
So Crabbe had a kill? I was not feeling good about Entjen, tbh. And she was taking suspicion, so I am surprised to see her killed. Although I hope/think Crabbe may have done us a favor. With Lucius dead, I am not sure what I think of the Slytherins, tbh. This is food for thought. Perhaps the people who said students are students were right... if Lucius was a recruiter, I hope he died without finding his mark.
I am sad but not surprised to see Jennet gone. I am not sure what I think about Agnes. She said she saw some things, but never came back to elucidate. The post she made that I primarily remember seemed to be another jab at Sarah Good. But right around that time, Jennet went all Chuck Norris on Mary, so the Sarah Good train petered out. I want to believe she came back good, and to be sad to see her go; I wish she had said more while here.
Anna Koldings wrote:Alright, well, Britta Zippel is a pretty automatic red flag. Her D1 vote (with Mary, when Mary was in potential danger of being lynched), a very low-flier (no posts since D2, but the person I replaced got taken over before her, and she had posted as recently as D5? Makes me think a) The civvies need a replacement more badly than the baddies because of numbers and b) It could be an intentional laying low strategy and the baddies don't even want her replaced).
I don't see how she can be good at this point, so that's where I'm going to put my vote.
Having played many games, and hosted a few myself, when I replace people I replace them in order of request. The exception would be if a person needing a replacement found one them self, or if their team found one for them. I am not going to vote for someone for a day one vote, and for being a replacement. I am voting for Alizon, most likely. If voting records is what compels you, she missed the first 2 (she also replaced in yes?) then voted for Krystyna, then for me for the stupefying reason of wanting to read Krystynas posts, than for Maret for her misuse of the maths, and for asking a question Malin thought was dumb.
Another reason I am not in love with low poster voting in THIS game is that I know the punishment they receive for having missed votes, having replaced the very quiet Merga I, and lets just say it makes them an easy lynch. And when you are a baddie, any lynch not your team is a good lynch.
No need for me to vote this early, but a vote for Alizon is my intention at this stage.
EBWOP, or for needing a replacement, not BEING one, in the reply to Anna K section. Also, in this game with the vote/PM missing punishments, the last thing baddies would want is easily lynched low fliers taking up space on their team. If I was to look to low posters.
Merga Bien wrote:
Having played many games, and hosted a few myself, when I replace people I replace them in order of request. The exception would be if a person needing a replacement found one them self, or if their team found one for them. I am not going to vote for someone for a day one vote, and for being a replacement. I am voting for Alizon, most likely. If voting records is what compels you, she missed the first 2 (she also replaced in yes?) then voted for Krystyna, then for me for the stupefying reason of wanting to read Krystynas posts, than for Maret for her misuse of the maths, and for asking a question Malin thought was dumb.
Another reason I am not in love with low poster voting in THIS game is that I know the punishment they receive for having missed votes, having replaced the very quiet Merga I, and lets just say it makes them an easy lynch. And when you are a baddie, any lynch not your team is a good lynch.
No need for me to vote this early, but a vote for Alizon is my intention at this stage.
Katharina Henot voted you Day 5 accidentally when she meant to vote for Mary (three spaces down). Is that not equally stupefying? Please think about that before condemning me.
I have to vote now or risk missing another vote. vote Alizon
Her responses to me and others do not make me feel warm or fuzzy. her stance on low posters vs thread suspicion (the hows that working for you response) and the gamblers fallacy is what put it ott for me.
Rest in peace Jennet and Entjen. And goodbye again Agnes
Merga Bien wrote:Another reason I am not in love with low poster voting in THIS game is that I know the punishment they receive for having missed votes, having replaced the very quiet Merga I, and lets just say it makes them an easy lynch. And when you are a baddie, any lynch not your team is a good lynch.
Interesting. Are you allowed to talk about the penalty for missing a vote? Have you seen hints of it in things done by Merga I and other players? And have you seen anyone who might have been trying to make an easy lynch out of that behavior?
Also, low posters are different than nonvoters IMO. There are some people who are playing the bare minimum, like Karin and Sarah Good, coming in to post and vote at least once each day. Then there are others like Brita Zippel and Rebecca Nurse who have inexplicably disappeared after being active players in the first few days. No posts. No votes.
I find the low posters more suspicious than the players who don't even seem to be playing currently. It is possible that the latter are trying to get replaced.
Welcome, Anna Koldings! What makes you think civs need priority over mafia for replacement players? You say it might be because of the numbers. But it's likely there are only three (maybe 4) evil witches left, unless you are still wary of the professors. We have been pretty lucky against the Death eaters kills so far although last night was a little brutal. But I don't think we need to be too concerned about the numbers just yet. We should still have a strong civ majority at this point.
I was planning on doing a kinky style type post going over the events of the Margaret Pearson lynched but the laptop is out of commission and phones are hard to make links. But in that lynch, Malin swooped in toward the end of the lynch and started posting short snippets of suspicions in regards to the low posters. She posted one about Margaret Pearson. She posted one about Alice Nutter that accused Nutter of being sloppy and defensive and dismissive. Nutter responded to her post by dismissing it defensively, saying her head wasn't in the game and that maybe Malin's team should kill her. Then Nutter voted for Margaret without saying which, if any, points on Margaret she agreed with. She did not give an explanation to go with her vote. Then Malin responded to Nutter by following Nutter's vote on Margaret Pearson. It was an odd back-and-forth. And I am not sure which behavior is more suspect there, Malin's or Nutter's.
Malin and Alizon going after low posters and then after Maret seems odd as well but I think civs often change their thoughtstream more spontaneously than the mafia does. Alizon compared Mary's behavior with Bridget's and cited that as a reason to not vote for her. I don't recall Malin mentioning Mary but I have not yet gone back to confirm this.
And now I must stop because it took me like an hour to type that all out on my phone.
Maret, let me just say that I had what I believed to be good reasons for voting you (and apparently at least one other person agreed). If you think my reasons are poor, fine, but don't say I had no reasons.
Anyway, let me lay out some analysis now, because it's become clear that early voters are running the lynches because a number of people just show up and vote the horsie that's in the lead and I think the baddies are aware of this.
I'm looking at people who took 3 or more votes in this.
These are people who were either lynched civvie or survived / succumbed to a Death Eater kill. Lucius Malfoy
I'll comment in a little while.
Mary Eastey
3 Krystyna Ceynowa (4), Sarah Good (12), Katharina Henot (23)
13%
Margaret Pearson
6
Malin Matsdotter (5), Alice Nutter (6), Margarethe Reinberg (7), Entjen Gillis (10), Anna Koldings (11), Margaret Pearson (12)
38%
Karin Svensdotter
3 Katharina Henot (9), Jane Southworth (15), Mary Eastey (16)
19%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Now 5~
Mary Eastey
12 Jennet Bierley (3), Anne Redferne (7), Barbara Kollerin (8), Merga Bien (9), Märet Jonsdotter (10), Entjen Gillis (11), Karin Svensdotter (12), Alice Nutter (13), Jane Southworth (14), Margarethe Reinberg (16), Agnes Sampson (18), Sarah Good (19)
63%
Alizon, I'm not understanding the analysis you have presented. I have a tendency to be dense so I'm not saying you didn't explain it well I just can't quite grasp the point you are making. I thought you were saying we need to look at the first people who voted in the civ lynches but then the list of names and days seems to indicate something else. Could you just provide a little more explanation for me? Thanks.
Margarethe Reinberg wrote:Alizon, I'm not understanding the analysis you have presented. I have a tendency to be dense so I'm not saying you didn't explain it well I just can't quite grasp the point you are making. I thought you were saying we need to look at the first people who voted in the civ lynches but then the list of names and days seems to indicate something else. Could you just provide a little more explanation for me? Thanks.
I haven't explained or analyzed anything yet lol. I said I'll comment in a little while. I'm working on it~ just wanted to get that posted so I (and other people) could look at it.
Oh! I thought when you said "i'll comment in a little while" you were talking about Lucious. Sorry, I completely misread that. I look forward to your analysis.
Merga Bien wrote:Had the lynch been switched to me, or a bandwagon formed around that vote, yes.
Otherwise, no.
There was no bandwagon or switch to you when I voted either. All I can ask you to do is think about it.
i have thought about it. All day long. All i can think is that you are implying there was a vote force? If so, Merga I was a low poster, why would you have to make up an excuse, you think voting low posters is awesome, right?
An accidental vote is one thing, but your reason for voting for me was the single baddiest voting reason I have ever heard, ever, not counting outed baddies trying to "bwa ha ha" it up on their way out.
Your analysis showing where mary voted in relation to the civ voters is interesting, but Mary is one person. And Mary was rather an unusual gal as well. I don't think Mary has made a blendy baddie following vote in her life.
I am curious to see who you attempt to crucify with this. But I am sure enough that you are bad that I am going to vote now.