Mortal Kombat Mafia [ENDGAME]
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- Kylemii
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
[mention]nutella[/mention] what are your thoughts on today's lynch?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I still think speed is a decent option but could definitely also go with Marmot now. Tony is on my short list as well at the moment. He's been all over the place since the dunya lynch and hasn't really explained his suspicion of me very well (I responded to his main post about it and he hasn't acknowledged my response but says he is still confident in his vote for me).
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I see Jack is voting Wilgy; I've been trusting and agreeing with Jack a lot and Wilgy has also been a pretty consistent suspect all game, mostly for not saying anything of substance. So he's on the table as well.
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- Quin
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
You just played a burglary with him. I would like your answer to this question.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 amthen what do you suggest his motivation is? can you see a civilian reason for anything marmot's done?Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:21 amI simply cannot accept that someone as skilled and experienced as Marmot could make such a newbie mistake. The fact that you could even suggest such a thing is giving me the heebie-jeebies...Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:10 ammarmot's recent actions don't make sense as a match to the ermac sock, ermac seemed helpful and civvie-minded, at least on the surface marmot seems... chaotic.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:54 amI don't think two mafia members claim indy today. But I can't be sure.
Would be worth figuring out who Ermac is based on sentence structure, etc but I'm really tired.
I think he's the real Kano and went back on it after he was reminded of his role's win condition and seeing how close the mafia are to victory
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
A mixture of being up since 4:30, being out all day and packing for a cruise. I'm here though.Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:42 am Where is our friend Quin? He’s in precisely the same time zone as I yet he’s not posted yet...? Seems strange.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Is there a reason why Eloh should have voted Simon or speedchuck over dunya?lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:07 amI don't like how Eloh voted for Dunya over Simon & speeechuck, what do you think?Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:03 ampossibly both
Simon is also off the poll
can someone who is good at math tell me how far away from lylo we are? I can't imagine jay would do something like this unless he were confident it would lead to something advantageous for his team.
I guess for today we look at TSP, and Eloh. Marmot is also okay as an emergency food source.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Quin, are you asking for me to respond to my own rhetorical question?Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:38 amYou just played a burglary with him. I would like your answer to this question.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 amthen what do you suggest his motivation is? can you see a civilian reason for anything marmot's done?Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:21 amI simply cannot accept that someone as skilled and experienced as Marmot could make such a newbie mistake. The fact that you could even suggest such a thing is giving me the heebie-jeebies...Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:10 ammarmot's recent actions don't make sense as a match to the ermac sock, ermac seemed helpful and civvie-minded, at least on the surface marmot seems... chaotic.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:54 amI don't think two mafia members claim indy today. But I can't be sure.
Would be worth figuring out who Ermac is based on sentence structure, etc but I'm really tired.
I think he's the real Kano and went back on it after he was reminded of his role's win condition and seeing how close the mafia are to victory
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Yes.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:56 amQuin, are you asking for me to respond to my own rhetorical question?Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:38 amYou just played a burglary with him. I would like your answer to this question.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 amthen what do you suggest his motivation is? can you see a civilian reason for anything marmot's done?Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:21 amI simply cannot accept that someone as skilled and experienced as Marmot could make such a newbie mistake. The fact that you could even suggest such a thing is giving me the heebie-jeebies...Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:10 ammarmot's recent actions don't make sense as a match to the ermac sock, ermac seemed helpful and civvie-minded, at least on the surface marmot seems... chaotic.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:54 amI don't think two mafia members claim indy today. But I can't be sure.
Would be worth figuring out who Ermac is based on sentence structure, etc but I'm really tired.
I think he's the real Kano and went back on it after he was reminded of his role's win condition and seeing how close the mafia are to victory
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
The answers are non-civ distract us motivation, and no, there's no civ reason. These were things I've already said.Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:57 amYes.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:56 amQuin, are you asking for me to respond to my own rhetorical question?Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:38 amYou just played a burglary with him. I would like your answer to this question.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 amthen what do you suggest his motivation is? can you see a civilian reason for anything marmot's done?Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:21 amI simply cannot accept that someone as skilled and experienced as Marmot could make such a newbie mistake. The fact that you could even suggest such a thing is giving me the heebie-jeebies...Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:10 ammarmot's recent actions don't make sense as a match to the ermac sock, ermac seemed helpful and civvie-minded, at least on the surface marmot seems... chaotic.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:54 am
I don't think two mafia members claim indy today. But I can't be sure.
Would be worth figuring out who Ermac is based on sentence structure, etc but I'm really tired.
I think he's the real Kano and went back on it after he was reminded of his role's win condition and seeing how close the mafia are to victory
I also don't think of it as a newbie mistake like glorfindel said, I think it would be pretty easy for marmot to jump-react to his role being claimed before thinking about the implications.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Quin who are you looking at for today's lynch?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I was trying to draw your attention to Marmot immediately claiming Jester in the burglary today. He didn't do that for civilian reasons. He said he'd have done it regardless of whether he rolled Jester or not. I can follow your train of thought if the underlined if what you're concerned about.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:02 amThe answers are non-civ distract us motivation, and no, there's no civ reason. These were things I've already said.Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:57 amYes.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:56 amQuin, are you asking for me to respond to my own rhetorical question?Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:38 amYou just played a burglary with him. I would like your answer to this question.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:25 amthen what do you suggest his motivation is? can you see a civilian reason for anything marmot's done?Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:21 amI simply cannot accept that someone as skilled and experienced as Marmot could make such a newbie mistake. The fact that you could even suggest such a thing is giving me the heebie-jeebies...Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:10 am
marmot's recent actions don't make sense as a match to the ermac sock, ermac seemed helpful and civvie-minded, at least on the surface marmot seems... chaotic.
I think he's the real Kano and went back on it after he was reminded of his role's win condition and seeing how close the mafia are to victory
I also don't think of it as a newbie mistake like glorfindel said, I think it would be pretty easy for marmot to jump-react to his role being claimed before thinking about the implications.
though i haven't even read outside of this quote pyramid so what do i know
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I keep on feeling like I'm not getting the full story from lapluie. I could go there. Players unlikely to get my vote today are Eloh and Jack.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
the situations are different. In jester games there's no harm in claiming jester because the only person who doesn't mind being seen as possibly being the jester is the actual jester.Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:09 amI was trying to draw your attention to Marmot immediately claiming Jester in the burglary today. He didn't do that for civilian reasons. He said he'd have done it regardless of whether he rolled Jester or not. I can follow your train of thought if the underlined if what you're concerned about.
though i haven't even read outside of this quote pyramid so what do i know
marmot countered strongly-suspectsd-to-be-a-mafia-member Jay's strongly implied claim of being Kano by implying he owned that role. the civilian utility for a fake indie counterclaim would be fairly limited, and would really just be a more risky way to get across the point of "doubt it"
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
What are your thoughts on Wilgy and Tony?
Also could you expand on Eloh? thank you
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Good to see you still with us today, Quin I’m a little worried about the cruise thing if that means it will in any way limit your participation in this game...
I would agree with you about Eloh - I’ve read nothing that suggests to me that she’s Mafia and she’d be far from the top of my suspected Mafiosos this game (if I had such a list, that is ) and I’m starting to get strange vibes about Lapluie myself. There was something I can’t quite put my finger on about her interaction with Dunya that I thought came off as a little ‘manipulative’ if that’s the right word. I wouldn’t be clearing Jack quite so fast however.
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Glorfindel is always nicer than a puppy.
Golden wrote: I agree. Let glorf be glorf.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I'd lean civ on Wilgy. I don't like the comparisons I've read to how he solved the game in pirates using only emojis. He said more then, but I'm not convinced his lack of content is more likely to come from scum Wilgy. I couldn't give a damn about Tony in this game (i mean he's a swell guy and all but i just haven't paid any real attention to him kk)
Eloh's intro post stuck hard as a civilian who couldn't give a damn about feigning any sort of productivity. I can't really justify specifying her with just that one instance, I guess. But it just felt right.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I'll have to replace out after the 27th, so fingers crossed there's a replacement ready. But I'm here until then, ready to go.Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:37 amGood to see you still with us today, Quin I’m a little worried about the cruise thing if that means it will in any way limit your participation in this game...
I would agree with you about Eloh - I’ve read nothing that suggests to me that she’s Mafia and she’d be far from the top of my suspected Mafiosos this game (if I had such a list, that is ) and I’m starting to get strange vibes about Lapluie myself. There was something I can’t quite put my finger on about her interaction with Dunya that I thought came off as a little ‘manipulative’ if that’s the right word. I wouldn’t be clearing Jack quite so fast however.
Jack's one of my top town reads. I had an exchange with him on D1 in which he came across hella genuine. I've gotten some good tonal reads from him too. I'm gonna ride this read straight to hell
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Can you point out the post that gave you the impression lapluie was being manipulative?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
It wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...
Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
GTH I call him town. I've lost interest in my early beefs with him. I don't think his comments about marmot reflect badly on him.Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:27 amIt wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...
Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )
I'm staying in Sydney for a night and then heading to NZ. Gonna make stops in Auckland and some other cities/islands. I'll be back on the 8th.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
[mention]TonyStarkPrime[/mention]
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
[mention]Quin[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention]
[mention]nutella[/mention]
[mention]Glorfindel[/mention]
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
[mention]Quin[/mention] [mention]Kylemii[/mention]
[mention]nutella[/mention]
[mention]Glorfindel[/mention]
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
May I also ask how you interpret Jay’s earlier claim specifically in relation to Rule # 3 for this game?Quin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:47 amGTH I call him town. I've lost interest in my early beefs with him. I don't think his comments about marmot reflect badly on him.Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:27 amIt wasn’t one specific post, it was more a general tonal thing. Perhaps manipulative was the wrong word - perhaps unauthentic, if that’s a word I’ll see what I can find to demonstrate what I mean. May I also please ask your opinion of Kyle? I really want to believe he’s OK but just when I start to believe...
Congrats on the cruise too! May I ask where you’re going and for how long? At the rate we’re going, this game will be well and truly over by the time you leave - please forgive my negativity )
I'm staying in Sydney for a night and then heading to NZ. Gonna make stops in Auckland and some other cities/islands. I'll be back on the 8th.
Cool! Need someone to carry your bags?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Anything is conceivably possible. I suppose it could’ve been him from the language he used but Ermac kinda sounded like he knew stuff and if Jay’s Indy claim is true, I don’t see how that could be true. I’m still not sure I believe any of the stuff he said - for a start, how could you ever take anyone seriously with a ‘cat in a sweater’ avatar?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
Dragon D. Luffy wrote:Glorfindel is always nicer than a puppy.
Golden wrote: I agree. Let glorf be glorf.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
My concern is that I have misinterpreted Jay's Ermac claim as a Kano claim. (Obligatory "Which is why claiming should just be allowed and you toss extra roles on the front page as safeclaims or else even claiming neutral should be a modkillable offense. This nudge nudge wink wink this isn't against the rules right business is not my favorite thing.)Glorfindel wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:05 amAnything is conceivably possible. I suppose it could’ve been him from the language he used but Ermac kinda sounded like he knew stuff and if Jay’s Indy claim is true, I don’t see how that could be true. I’m still not sure I believe any of the stuff he said - for a start, how could you ever take anyone seriously with a ‘cat in a sweater’ avatar?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
While an Ermac claim is less believable than a Kano claim, I'd just as soon lynch Kano as a mafia member. The same does not apply to Ermac.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Let me rephrase.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 amI’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
"With your recent suspicious actions like saying we shouldn't lynch Simon and with roughly one mislynch allowed before we lose, what actual reasons do we have to trust you are town and what actual reasons do we have to lynch Nutella?"
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
i have an actual case on Nutella but I’m going to wait until I have time to do it right and why would I say that we shouldn’t lynch Simon today if I knew he wasn’t going to be on the lynch?Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:11 amLet me rephrase.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 amI’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
"With your recent suspicious actions like saying we shouldn't lynch Simon and with roughly one mislynch allowed before we lose, what actual reasons do we have to trust you are town and what actual reasons do we have to lynch Nutella?"
I can explain better but give me seven hours.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I really don't care at this point and won't be trying to defend myself. I have done nothing to help the civs, this is true. And I woke up this morning with my migraine back and on the opposite side of my head and I feel as if I could throw up at any moment. I am so over feelng like crap. So....nope....don't care.
Banners are cool, but a pain to scroll through so...
I've won a lot of games. I've hosted some games. The end.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Overdeep analysis of this:
Jay claiming 3rd party, at first glance, seems to be geared toward not getting nightkilled. Marmot's claim then, true or false, is geared toward doubt of that claim. First we'll talk about one's motives, then the other.
If Jay is town, this is an interesting 3P-hunting technique as well as a smokescreen so that he doesn't get lynched before he can figure out the scumteam.
If Jay is mafia, this is a huge WIFOM gambit to throw everyone for a loop. Not sure how this fits with being taken off of the poll, but hidden abilities abound.
If Jay is 3P, obviously he wants to up his chances of survival. Can't win if dead.
I don't buy that Jay is town after this. He's not treating the role that way.
Marmot, on the other hand, is throwing doubt on that claim.
If Marmot is town, he's trying to make sure that Jay's claim does him all harm and no good whatsoever. He's also being marmot.
If Marmot is scum, he's... uh. Doing the same thing? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this makes a little less sense than the town!marmot motive.
If Marmot is 3P, he's infuriated that JJJ found a way to squeeze past the rules and claim his role, when Marmot would have been the first to do that if he'd known. Legit counterclaim.
Now let's talk about presentation and wording.
We have a lie detector, probably still living. That lie detector can't do much to warn us of things. But if either of these people were paying attention to the lie detector, or wanted their statements to be technically true, then JJJ would be the 3rd party and Marmot would be the liar.
Don't know how much people care about that. Lie detectors in game with claiming, like I'm used to, are scary as hell.
Something to think about.
I don't think Jay is town. Whether he's mafia or 3P depends on how much WIFOM he's prone to as mafia. And, y'know, his role card.
I don't see a good scum motive for marmot, but it's marmot. He could be anything and still do this.
Most likely to least likely pairings of Jay/Marmot, off the top of my head:
3P/Town
Mafia/3P
Mafia/Town
3P/Other 3P?
3P/Mafia
Town/3P
Town/Mafia
Town/Town
linki: Please visit a doctor, Eloh. This can't be normal. I'll be praying for you.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Tony, walk me through your progression.
How did you come to change your opinion so drastically about so many players?
How did you come to change your opinion so drastically about so many players?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:43 pm Let’s play the build a scum team game. I’ll go first.
Dunya
Eloh
Wilgy
Nova
Long Con
Someone give me better.
And I would ask Speed about Nova but apparently he’s about to answer.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:10 pm Let’s play The Who’s Mafia game, 2.0 edition.
I’ll start again.
Quin
Nutella
Nova
Eloh
Speedchuck / Simon
I’m still reading into Simon. Not sure how EOD impacts that read.
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 am So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).
Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85
JJJ 60
Quin 35
Eloh 35
Wilgy 30
Dave / Dom 29
Nova 25
Lap 25
Made 20
Speedchuck 15
Long Con 15
Kyle 10
JOH 10
Marmot 10
Glor 1
@linki
Dunya and Simon in lynch contention, Simon saved by a weird third train and too many people voting Dunya.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Tony's ISO is pretty meh. Not a lot of good. Nothing bad that hasn't been covered, though that's substantial.
Going to do interactive reads between Jimmy and Tony. Not sure if that'll help with WIFOM and everything.
Gonna read Nutella too.
Going to do interactive reads between Jimmy and Tony. Not sure if that'll help with WIFOM and everything.
Gonna read Nutella too.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Or I might play some Jagged Alliance 2.
Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
How confident are you with this outcome?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 amI’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
* ☆ kepler 22b ~ °
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
hugs! really hope you get better soon.Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:36 amI really don't care at this point and won't be trying to defend myself. I have done nothing to help the civs, this is true. And I woke up this morning with my migraine back and on the opposite side of my head and I feel as if I could throw up at any moment. I am so over feelng like crap. So....nope....don't care.
p.s. I can sub in for eloh (just kidding)
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
The first one is day 2. Long Con had some posts that day I had a good tone read on and had a solid day 3. That’s a pretty standard development.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:56 pm Tony, walk me through your progression.
How did you come to change your opinion so drastically about so many players?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:43 pm Let’s play the build a scum team game. I’ll go first.
Dunya
Eloh
Wilgy
Nova
Long Con
Someone give me better.
And I would ask Speed about Nova but apparently he’s about to answer.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:10 pm Let’s play The Who’s Mafia game, 2.0 edition.
I’ll start again.
Quin
Nutella
Nova
Eloh
Speedchuck / Simon
I’m still reading into Simon. Not sure how EOD impacts that read.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:50 am So with the removals Simon’s chance of being mafia goes way up but he’s also unlynchable today. Same with JJJ (who’s in murkier waters).
Percentage rainbow, just so you guys can see my thoughts:
Simon 95
Nutella 85
JJJ 60
Quin 35
Eloh 35
Wilgy 30
Dave / Dom 29
Nova 25
Lap 25
Made 20
Speedchuck 15
Long Con 15
Kyle 10
JOH 10
Marmot 10
Glor 1
@linki
Dunya and Simon in lynch contention, Simon saved by a weird third train and too many people voting Dunya.
I think there’s a good chance exactly one of Nova or Lap are mafia unlike some of the higher chances which I don’t necessarily read as mafia together. But on a broader sense that’s more of the wild card spot where it’s one of 4 different people.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Mostly agree, but I’d put the X / 3P all a step higher.speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:43 amOverdeep analysis of this:
Jay claiming 3rd party, at first glance, seems to be geared toward not getting nightkilled. Marmot's claim then, true or false, is geared toward doubt of that claim. First we'll talk about one's motives, then the other.
If Jay is town, this is an interesting 3P-hunting technique as well as a smokescreen so that he doesn't get lynched before he can figure out the scumteam.
If Jay is mafia, this is a huge WIFOM gambit to throw everyone for a loop. Not sure how this fits with being taken off of the poll, but hidden abilities abound.
If Jay is 3P, obviously he wants to up his chances of survival. Can't win if dead.
I don't buy that Jay is town after this. He's not treating the role that way.
Marmot, on the other hand, is throwing doubt on that claim.
If Marmot is town, he's trying to make sure that Jay's claim does him all harm and no good whatsoever. He's also being marmot.
If Marmot is scum, he's... uh. Doing the same thing? Correct me if I'm wrong, but this makes a little less sense than the town!marmot motive.
If Marmot is 3P, he's infuriated that JJJ found a way to squeeze past the rules and claim his role, when Marmot would have been the first to do that if he'd known. Legit counterclaim.
Now let's talk about presentation and wording.
We have a lie detector, probably still living. That lie detector can't do much to warn us of things. But if either of these people were paying attention to the lie detector, or wanted their statements to be technically true, then JJJ would be the 3rd party and Marmot would be the liar.
Don't know how much people care about that. Lie detectors in game with claiming, like I'm used to, are scary as hell.
Something to think about.
I don't think Jay is town. Whether he's mafia or 3P depends on how much WIFOM he's prone to as mafia. And, y'know, his role card.
I don't see a good scum motive for marmot, but it's marmot. He could be anything and still do this.
Most likely to least likely pairings of Jay/Marmot, off the top of my head:
3P/Town
Mafia/3P
Mafia/Town
3P/Other 3P?
3P/Mafia
Town/3P
Town/Mafia
Town/Town
linki: Please visit a doctor, Eloh. This can't be normal. I'll be praying for you.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
At this point, very.lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:37 pmHow confident are you with this outcome?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 amI’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Make your case.TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:18 pmAt this point, very.lapluie wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:37 pmHow confident are you with this outcome?TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:01 amI’m voting Nutella because Nutella is mafia. Don’t lynch me because I think you need me.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I don't believe Jay is Ermac.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 8:35 am @TonyStarkPrime
Why are you voting Nutella? Why should we not lynch you?
@Quin @Kylemii
@nutella
@Glorfindel
Is it possible Jimmy is Ermac?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I don't think he's Ermac for a couple reasons but I guess it's technically possible. I think it's much more likely he is really Kano.
Huh, I actually really like speedchuck's analysis. I still agree with Kyle that I don't see the town motive for what Marmot did, but he is Marmot after all and has been known to do weird stuff.
Working on a rainbow
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
Glorfindel
lapluie
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
Quin
Dave
Dom
novaselinenever
Long Con
Elohcin
Made
Marmot
DrWilgy
Simon
speedchuck
TonyStarkPrime
JaggedJimmyJay (3p)
lapluie
Jackofhearts2005
Kylemii
Quin
Dave
Dom
novaselinenever
Long Con
Elohcin
Made
Marmot
DrWilgy
Simon
speedchuck
TonyStarkPrime
JaggedJimmyJay (3p)
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
[mention]speedchuck[/mention], your Jay/Marmot analysis makes me want to reconsider my read of you, but you haven't said much about anything else recently. Who do you want to lynch today?
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
JJJ and Simon.
I was breaking from mafia all yesterday. Didn't post relevant stuff in Fiddler either.
I still see no reason not to lynch Wilgy. Lapluie I still read as town, and I'm coming around on TSP. I don't know who I want to lynch for sure yet, but Made is a person I'm going to review before EOD, Wilgy is an option, and nutella and Marmot have been thrown around for one reason or another. That pool is a good place to start looking.
So, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
hmmm. not an amazing response tbh
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I think Jimmy is bad, not Kano.
Why save Simon? What does he care who gets lynched? Why draw so much fire over this?
Kano claiming Kano is essentially losing.
Why save Simon? What does he care who gets lynched? Why draw so much fire over this?
Kano claiming Kano is essentially losing.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I think I see what you're saying, letting players who don't vote might be a mathematical risk going into the next few days, but I don't think they're worth using town resources like kills on.... I think if we have those things they should be used on the Jay's and the Simon's of the world. Mathematically it has the same effect of tipping the scales away from the mafia's reach.speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:57 pmSo, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
it's also pretty clear that the poll removals of Simon and Jay are a coordinated action, yeah.
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Re: Mortal Kombat Mafia [Day 4]
I'm not actually talking about vote risk. Or at least, not immediately.Kylemii wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:18 pmI think I see what you're saying, letting players who don't vote might be a mathematical risk going into the next few days, but I don't think they're worth using town resources like kills on.... I think if we have those things they should be used on the Jay's and the Simon's of the world. Mathematically it has the same effect of tipping the scales away from the mafia's reach.speedchuck wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2018 2:57 pmSo, I have a separate question: What are we going to do about lurkers? Dave and Dom specifically. If we're 2 mislynches away from lylo or mylo, consider me concerned. If there are any town kills, these two along with Simon should be targets if we want a chance to win this.
Let's say we mislynch today. Lynch Simon and JJJ next. One more mislynch would put us at MYLO, with no information about Dave or Dom. What then? If one of them is mafia, do we just HOPE that we pick the right one first? With 2 inactives, it'll be harder than ever to POE it down. It's an ugly situation, and one that I'd rather avoid.
Judging by the fact that there's a mafia protective role, Mileena, I have hope that this can be handled. Because unless we lynch straight scum from here out, it is probably going to be a problem.
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