Mountain Mafia [END]
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Hm. I could have sworn Sprit had like 2-3 times as many posts.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
[mention]colonialbob[/mention] I happen to disagree with most every D2 read you've posted, so I'm [retty sure I'd read you scum if I ISO'd you. The lack of defense you're getting in this is kinda disturbing.
I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.
Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?
I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.
Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
So the problem is this opens you up to confirmation bias, which is basically inevitable when you go looking for stuff to confirm what you already think. I've seen it happen before, and it's frustrating to fight against because, well, they don't want to hear it. It's not even consciously, but confirmation bias is worse than just looking for stuff that confirms your theory - when people are confronted with evidence that goes against what they think, they're actually more likely to believe it stronger than they are to change their minds.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:12 pm But also, for the sake of discussion philosophy/theory, you're right that I was looking for reasons to suspect you. When I'm engaging in an ISO like the one I did of cbob last night, I am asking myself "Can I see any of these actions being scum-indicative?". If I can pull enough out that consistently makes sense, I'm willing to run with it. If I struggle, I'll probably still submit the post for sake of discussion, but I won't push the person as a suspect. I don't think I can catch baddies without this approach.
Other times I'll ISO a person from a totally neutral standpoint. It depends on what I'm working with and where I'm at in the game.
(Again this is all theory and not alignment specific, I'm more than happy to talk theory because I find it very interesting)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Answered in the post you quoted...Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:16 pmI never got the impression you were honestly considering a vote change. You were poking Jay with some questions about sprityo and me, but I don't remember seeing you offer any critical thoughts of your own, and you never wavered for a moment from your position. Your vote was on me and you were acting like there was still room to change your mind, but I never saw evidence of this. I also feel like the confidence you expressed in your vote was not backed up by the justification you provided, but that's not something I can view objectively since I was the target of it.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:10 pmI've reversed position on you for mechanical reasons. Town has the avoid lynch powers, so that makes you more likely to be town. Also Jack's non-tie vote bothers me and the more likely he is to be scum the less likely you are to be, since the w/w thing doesn't hold up mechanically.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:02 pmYou still haven't addressed my primary concern, which was your behavior from the time you started suspecting me to the end of the day.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:55 pm PS I think Sloonei's ISO of me started with the premise that I was probably bad and surprisingly enough found reasons to confirm. I don't think that's alignment indicative, I think it's a problem with ISOing people you're not neutral on.
this post here also suggests you've reversed your opinion on me again.
My behavior from suspecting you until end of day? My choices were you, Jack, or sprit. I didn't want to vote sprit because I don't like going low poster this early. I could've voted Jack but my suspicions of you were fresher and less meta. I don't really get this "waving my vote in your face" complaint tbh.
Why didn't you vote for Jack?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:23 pm @colonialbob I happen to disagree with most every D2 read you've posted, so I'm [retty sure I'd read you scum if I ISO'd you. The lack of defense you're getting in this is kinda disturbing.
I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.
Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?
speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:23 pm I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.
Also there were several people who read me as town, and I'm not sure why a lack of defense (in half a night phase on Thanksgiving) is more proof I'm bad?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I don't like that answer, you're just reasserting that you voted for me. What was the case against Jack and why did you not follow it?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:29 pmAnswered in the post you quoted...Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:16 pmI never got the impression you were honestly considering a vote change. You were poking Jay with some questions about sprityo and me, but I don't remember seeing you offer any critical thoughts of your own, and you never wavered for a moment from your position. Your vote was on me and you were acting like there was still room to change your mind, but I never saw evidence of this. I also feel like the confidence you expressed in your vote was not backed up by the justification you provided, but that's not something I can view objectively since I was the target of it.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:10 pmI've reversed position on you for mechanical reasons. Town has the avoid lynch powers, so that makes you more likely to be town. Also Jack's non-tie vote bothers me and the more likely he is to be scum the less likely you are to be, since the w/w thing doesn't hold up mechanically.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:02 pmYou still haven't addressed my primary concern, which was your behavior from the time you started suspecting me to the end of the day.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:55 pm PS I think Sloonei's ISO of me started with the premise that I was probably bad and surprisingly enough found reasons to confirm. I don't think that's alignment indicative, I think it's a problem with ISOing people you're not neutral on.
this post here also suggests you've reversed your opinion on me again.
My behavior from suspecting you until end of day? My choices were you, Jack, or sprit. I didn't want to vote sprit because I don't like going low poster this early. I could've voted Jack but my suspicions of you were fresher and less meta. I don't really get this "waving my vote in your face" complaint tbh.
Why didn't you vote for Jack?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I do open myself up to confirmation bias. But, the way I see it, I need to be asking myself "Does [this action] make sense from a scum point of view?". I also ask myself the inverse of that, "Does this make sense from a town point of view?", but if I'm going to be playing that game with myself then I'll get stuck in a barrel of WIFOM and never lynch anybody. At a certain point a decision has to be made: Which option makes more sense? I am currently positing the theory that it makes more sense for you to be bad. You can change my mind. Others can disagree. It's all in the game.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:28 pmSo the problem is this opens you up to confirmation bias, which is basically inevitable when you go looking for stuff to confirm what you already think. I've seen it happen before, and it's frustrating to fight against because, well, they don't want to hear it. It's not even consciously, but confirmation bias is worse than just looking for stuff that confirms your theory - when people are confronted with evidence that goes against what they think, they're actually more likely to believe it stronger than they are to change their minds.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:12 pm But also, for the sake of discussion philosophy/theory, you're right that I was looking for reasons to suspect you. When I'm engaging in an ISO like the one I did of cbob last night, I am asking myself "Can I see any of these actions being scum-indicative?". If I can pull enough out that consistently makes sense, I'm willing to run with it. If I struggle, I'll probably still submit the post for sake of discussion, but I won't push the person as a suspect. I don't think I can catch baddies without this approach.
Other times I'll ISO a person from a totally neutral standpoint. It depends on what I'm working with and where I'm at in the game.
(Again this is all theory and not alignment specific, I'm more than happy to talk theory because I find it very interesting)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Yes it is conceivable. But if it is the case I maintain it was Sloonei who stopped the lynch and not Jack because Sloonei predicted non-death. Also, this possibility is why I asked Marmot how he will write a lynch stop.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 9:01 am Cristobal Colon (which I somehow missed in my tally of how no one got lynched) may have had to send in a lynch-stop without knowing which of the players in the "tie" were going to be lynched. It's conceivable that Civ Sloonei just saved baddie Jack, or vice-versa.
Nutella's response to my out loud theorizing is interesting to me. She seems to fall in with the idea of Sutter Buttes protecting Jack making it a tie lynch when it shouldn't have been.
Sloonei has gone from, "tell me what the case is on Jack?" to "why did you not vote for Jack?" This is also very interesting to me.
I did not get an answer from Marmot so I will ask again: Marmot, When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?
Can you tell us how a lynch stop will be written?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
What's interesting about my change of vocabulary RE: Jack?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Nothing incriminating if that's what you want to know. I fully believe you are civ and there is little to nothing that can convince me otherwise at this point.
The reason I am trying to sort through this in the manner I am is because I think Nutella's posts and behavior have reinforced the belief I held. Either she really is who I believe or she wants me to believe she is.
I think I am at a point where I strongly believe either nutella is bad or Jack is bad.
The reason I am trying to sort through this in the manner I am is because I think Nutella's posts and behavior have reinforced the belief I held. Either she really is who I believe or she wants me to believe she is.
I think I am at a point where I strongly believe either nutella is bad or Jack is bad.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
And I am inclined to lean Jack.
Or the lynch was stopped.
Or the lynch was stopped.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Naw, I know where I stand in your view. I'm interested in what you're thinking about jack and nutella. I've been unclear on the Jack case and haven't received much explanation of it. What I have seen seems unorganized and unconvincing, and I liked the vibe he gave off at EOD last night.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:32 pm Nothing incriminating if that's what you want to know. I fully believe you are civ and there is little to nothing that can convince me otherwise at this point.
The reason I am trying to sort through this in the manner I am is because I think Nutella's posts and behavior have reinforced the belief I held. Either she really is who I believe or she wants me to believe she is.
I think I am at a point where I strongly believe either nutella is bad or Jack is bad.
I gave nutella a town read on Night 1 but she hasn't much to solidify that since. I could go either way on her right now.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Ok, perhaps I misread your intent. It read to me like, before the lynch you were trying to figure out why people were voting for Jack. Then after the result you were trying to figure out why people did not vote for Jack. Which would give me the impression that the result of the lynch made you feel worse about Jack. But this last post seems to make that impression incorrect. Do you still feel the same way about Jack now?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I've been undecided on Jack for most of the game, but his attitude last night didn't feel false or forced or fabricated or anything with an f. I'm interested in why the lynch played out the way it did. Certain people voted for Jack, and certain people did not and I don't understand all the reasons why.
I'm the people who enabled the tie to happen as well. Namely bob. I sincerely do not understand his behavior last night from a town perspective.
I'm the people who enabled the tie to happen as well. Namely bob. I sincerely do not understand his behavior last night from a town perspective.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:32 amIt might've been a little no uish. However, I do see a main argument of your case being that we're low posters which is a slippery and dangerous route to follow.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:23 am1. My case against you and at first sprityo was never about low posters. It was about people who had been somewhat active but their content was so minimal that it was forgettable to me. So nice misrepresentation there.sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:49 amI don't like daisy going after me and sprit and other low posters that screams mafia. Targeting people who aren't around to one defend themselves and two yo lynch since you get less heat if they flip civ when lynched. Since they weren't active so no big deal. Is my thoughts regarding lynching low posters. I also don't like het posts on wilgy they seem like she's trying to spread paranoia.
2. I'm not spreading paranoia, I'm trying to sort through my own feelings and figure out if it's tinfoil insanity or really something. Also, if I was spreading paranoia I would not be so willing to hear other opinions and adjust based on good points in response.
This accusation was definitively a no u and it really makes me like the look of you even less.
2. That's something someone trying to spread paranoia would say.
linki: Jack would you mind explaining why you think you were almost lynched?

In fact if I were to apply the exact same criteria to casting a vote at this very moment and taking into consideration post count, I would vote either sprityo or Quin. Quin has the second highest post count in this thread and yet I can't think of a single case he has made independent of someone else, or a strong stance I can recall. And sprityo, I did vote for him and I would be willing to do it again for the same reasons as before. Though it is nothing personal and I'm sorry you had a rough day yesterday sprityo

But your insistence that I am going after you because you're a low poster even though I have corrected this misunderstanding makes you look worse to me, not better. That tactic is a great way to paint someone as bad because around here people going after low posters is viewed as an easy lynch (even though it almost never gets someone lynched, so I think this is a really weird case to make, but that is a mafia theory discussion really).
Linki @ Sloonei: Can you please specify what you mean by people who did not. Do you mean you want to know why people chose you over Jack or do you mean everyone who did not vote for Jack (including people like myself who voted for sprityo)?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Just an aside, I'm out for the day with holiday festivities. See y'all tomorrow.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Spacedaisy seems way more town than normal.
Quin seems consistent wit his cc123 performance. ???
I have no sig opinion yet
Quin seems consistent wit his cc123 performance. ???
I have no sig opinion yet
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
Both. I want to know why everyone did everything with their votes yesterday.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:03 pm Linki @ Sloonei: Can you please specify what you mean by people who did not. Do you mean you want to know why people chose you over Jack or do you mean everyone who did not vote for Jack (including people like myself who voted for sprityo)?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I will answer the question. I believed you to be civ. I have gone back and forth on Jack and I didn't feel strongly enough about lynching him. I did however feel like sprityo was a decent option and there was actually a chance he might get the most votes so I voted there.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Bob, can you explain the crossover comparison?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 0]
fixed this for it to make any amount of senseJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:29 amI did. I don't see any names. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong post.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:33 pmread the ebwop doodJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:56 amLike who? DDL, Eloh and now you have talked about the vultures. Who are the vultures? DDL answered LC, which is wrong, and required people to ask him like 8 times. Makes his vultures idea sound made up.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:30 amWhat does Elohcin thinks about the people "kind of" wanting to vote for him? Maybe she's answered this. if not, I'd like one.Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:53 pmAre you still angry from the previous game with epi where he found you out as mafia?
I believe her.
I agree with this.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:39 am I don't like this Epi lynch. Feels like there's a bunch of scum surrounding him like vultures waiting to see if they can lynch him or not. Lots of people "kind of" wanting to vote for him.
Posting but still catching up.
You and Eloh subscribe to the vultures theory and have not named vultures, which also sounds made up or at least barely paying attention to it.
I still want Eloh and DDL to answer this with actual names.
Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
That's...more premises than I would care to accept.nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:50 pmI mean it's a night power, right? So the scum team anticipated jack getting some votes and gave him minus one. He would have been one vote ahead of sloonei but this would bring it back to a tie, which was randomly flipped to sloonei who is one of the civ roles who would survive the lynch.Epignosis wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:40 pmCan you explain how this transpired given the result?
The underlined conclusion doesn't require any of the previous premises to be true. Sloonei would have no idea what the vote tally was if he stopped the lynch, and whether the votes were manipulated doesn't matter if he is automatically safe from one death, because there was a no lynch, and the mafia can't stop a lynch regardless of the tally.
My view is that Sloonei stopped the lynch. He was not at all passionate about defending himself or making a fuss to get people to vote elsewhere. He called it "a waste of time." If you are automatically safe from one death, your job isn't to save yourself from a lynch, but to eat a Night kill (thereby protecting the other civilians). Had Sloonei had that responsibility, I believe we would have witnessed more urgency and fire. We witnessed none.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I was just a bit shocked to see that comparison tbh.speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:09 pmIdk what that means for your alignment.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 0]
Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:40 pmfixed this for it to make any amount of senseJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:29 amI did. I don't see any names. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong post.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:33 pmread the ebwop doodJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:56 amLike who? DDL, Eloh and now you have talked about the vultures. Who are the vultures? DDL answered LC, which is wrong, and required people to ask him like 8 times. Makes his vultures idea sound made up.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:30 amWhat does Elohcin thinks about the people "kind of" wanting to vote for him? Maybe she's answered this. if not, I'd like one.Elohcin wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:53 pmAre you still angry from the previous game with epi where he found you out as mafia?
I believe her.
I agree with this.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:39 am I don't like this Epi lynch. Feels like there's a bunch of scum surrounding him like vultures waiting to see if they can lynch him or not. Lots of people "kind of" wanting to vote for him.
Posting but still catching up.
You and Eloh subscribe to the vultures theory and have not named vultures, which also sounds made up or at least barely paying attention to it.
I still want Eloh and DDL to answer this with actual names.

Are there supposed to be vulture names in this post?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 0]
I didn't mention vultures, Jack. I asked about Eloh's mention of vultures, Jack.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:27 pmQuin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:40 pmfixed this for it to make any amount of senseJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:29 amI did. I don't see any names. Maybe I'm looking at the wrong post.Quin wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:33 pmread the ebwop doodJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:56 amLike who? DDL, Eloh and now you have talked about the vultures. Who are the vultures? DDL answered LC, which is wrong, and required people to ask him like 8 times. Makes his vultures idea sound made up.
You and Eloh subscribe to the vultures theory and have not named vultures, which also sounds made up or at least barely paying attention to it.
I still want Eloh and DDL to answer this with actual names.![]()
Are there supposed to be vulture names in this post?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]


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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Quin, I see what you mean now, Quin.
I misinterpreted your post to mean you agreed and wanted her thoughts I now see the quote marks as not subscribing to her belief. (Originally, the multiquote may have had me thinking someone else's post was yours but idk.)
I misinterpreted your post to mean you agreed and wanted her thoughts I now see the quote marks as not subscribing to her belief. (Originally, the multiquote may have had me thinking someone else's post was yours but idk.)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Jack, I think that might have been it, Jack. I forgive you, Jack. Quote breaks are the worst, Jack.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:35 pm Quin, I see what you mean now, Quin.
I misinterpreted your post to mean you agreed and wanted her thoughts I now see the quote marks as not subscribing to her belief. (Originally, the multiquote may have had me thinking someone else's post was yours but idk.)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Quin.
You've taken some flack for talking without saying things, despite isos and a number of people reading you as town.
What is your one opinion or bit of analysis that you have provided that should be underlined, that should be getting more attention?
You've taken some flack for talking without saying things, despite isos and a number of people reading you as town.
What is your one opinion or bit of analysis that you have provided that should be underlined, that should be getting more attention?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Sloonei, probably. It's the most "urgent" of my reads right now. I'd like some opinions on my initial gripe (what I saw as dancing around my question re: Epi pressure vote).Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:59 pm Quin.
You've taken some flack for talking without saying things, despite isos and a number of people reading you as town.
What is your one opinion or bit of analysis that you have provided that should be underlined, that should be getting more attention?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I'm feeling better about him after he came out with his case on bob (still need to read it), but I'd like some opinions as to whether I'm being unreasonable in that one instance.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
A magician never reveals his secret.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
There's nothing magic about it, it's all base material.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
Alternative theory:
Focus on the latter two posts. The highlighted portions suggest a player who does not anticipate being lynched despite being tied for the tally lead. Sloonei also projected a no-lynch as Spacedaisy has observed with "lynching me will be a waste of time". Neither of these two seemed to be very concerned about dying. One can assert that Jack's projection of survival barring vote shenanigans is evidence of the influence of Sutter Buttes, but then I have to question if he would say that. The poll was tied. Sloonei dying would have appeared to be the result of a coin flip; there's no need to make one's own mafia-driven voting advantage public before the results are revealed. If it's a civilian-driven advantage though (i.e. Everest)? Sure.
The first post above I also brought out to consider the notion that Jack stopped the lynch instead, given that he was firmly good on Sloonei. That'd give him a motive to put a stop to a tied lynch featuring a firm civilian read and himself at the gallows. This one is more difficult to believe though given the third quoted post -- "vote shenanigans" shouldn't matter to someone who is about to stop a lynch. This notion would require some semantic gymnastics.
Summarizing the theory:
~ Civilian Sloonei stopped the lynch/wasn't lynchable
~ Civilian Jack expected to survive because of his double vote
Other possibilities which are applicable – Matterhorn is somehow involved / Olympus Mons is somehow involved. Their “secrets” can be pretty much anything, and a lynch survival for OM especially wouldn’t surprise me.
Gimme those delicious thoughts.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:57 amI firmly believe Sloonei is good. He feels good. He's been thinking and he's working.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:39 amWhyyyyyyyyyyyyJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:35 am Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.
Tell me why you think he's bad.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:09 am Ugh. This night. Now to go see why I was almost lynched.
The first post came just before the poll deadline, and the next two came after -- but before Marmot posted the [non]results.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:10 am On the off chance of vote shenanigans...
Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.
Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.
Everyone else mostly null.
Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.
Focus on the latter two posts. The highlighted portions suggest a player who does not anticipate being lynched despite being tied for the tally lead. Sloonei also projected a no-lynch as Spacedaisy has observed with "lynching me will be a waste of time". Neither of these two seemed to be very concerned about dying. One can assert that Jack's projection of survival barring vote shenanigans is evidence of the influence of Sutter Buttes, but then I have to question if he would say that. The poll was tied. Sloonei dying would have appeared to be the result of a coin flip; there's no need to make one's own mafia-driven voting advantage public before the results are revealed. If it's a civilian-driven advantage though (i.e. Everest)? Sure.
The first post above I also brought out to consider the notion that Jack stopped the lynch instead, given that he was firmly good on Sloonei. That'd give him a motive to put a stop to a tied lynch featuring a firm civilian read and himself at the gallows. This one is more difficult to believe though given the third quoted post -- "vote shenanigans" shouldn't matter to someone who is about to stop a lynch. This notion would require some semantic gymnastics.
Summarizing the theory:
~ Civilian Sloonei stopped the lynch/wasn't lynchable
~ Civilian Jack expected to survive because of his double vote
Other possibilities which are applicable – Matterhorn is somehow involved / Olympus Mons is somehow involved. Their “secrets” can be pretty much anything, and a lynch survival for OM especially wouldn’t surprise me.
Gimme those delicious thoughts.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Thanks for the reminder, bae. I'll get to it. For the moment I think you look alright -- I appreciate the reversal on Sloonei when he put up the colonialbob case.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I was also in the Jack is/did something camp, so I can appreciate this. Some of Sloonei's posts towards the end felt more 'I don't care about getting lynched because the game goes on without me.', not 'I don't care about getting lynched because I won't be getting lynched.'JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:02 am Alternative theory:
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:57 amI firmly believe Sloonei is good. He feels good. He's been thinking and he's working.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:39 amWhyyyyyyyyyyyyJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:35 am Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.
Tell me why you think he's bad.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:09 am Ugh. This night. Now to go see why I was almost lynched.The first post came just before the poll deadline, and the next two came after -- but before Marmot posted the [non]results.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:10 am On the off chance of vote shenanigans...
Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.
Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.
Everyone else mostly null.
Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.
Focus on the latter two posts. The highlighted portions suggest a player who does not anticipate being lynched despite being tied for the tally lead. Sloonei also projected a no-lynch as Spacedaisy has observed with "lynching me will be a waste of time". Neither of these two seemed to be very concerned about dying. One can assert that Jack's projection of survival barring vote shenanigans is evidence of the influence of Sutter Buttes, but then I have to question if he would say that. The poll was tied. Sloonei dying would have appeared to be the result of a coin flip; there's no need to make one's own mafia-driven voting advantage public before the results are revealed. If it's a civilian-driven advantage though (i.e. Everest)? Sure.
The first post above I also brought out to consider the notion that Jack stopped the lynch instead, given that he was firmly good on Sloonei. That'd give him a motive to put a stop to a tied lynch featuring a firm civilian read and himself at the gallows. This one is more difficult to believe though given the third quoted post -- "vote shenanigans" shouldn't matter to someone who is about to stop a lynch. This notion would require some semantic gymnastics.
Summarizing the theory:
~ Civilian Sloonei stopped the lynch/wasn't lynchable
~ Civilian Jack expected to survive because of his double vote
Other possibilities which are applicable – Matterhorn is somehow involved / Olympus Mons is somehow involved. Their “secrets” can be pretty much anything, and a lynch survival for OM especially wouldn’t surprise me.
Gimme those delicious thoughts.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:28 am That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
If Sloonei is about to stop (possibly) his own lynch, he doesn't spam out the thread right before EoD. Yes/No?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I wouldn't label bob a town read. Question for you: what do you mean to imply with the highlighted comment?speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:23 pm @colonialbob I happen to disagree with most every D2 read you've posted, so I'm [retty sure I'd read you scum if I ISO'd you. The lack of defense you're getting in this is kinda disturbing.
I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.
Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?
What is the purpose of this post?speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:55 pm Spacedaisy seems way more town than normal.
Quin seems consistent wit his cc123 performance. ???
I have no sig opinion yet
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I would expect to see a concerted effort from Sloonei to lynch someone else so that the lynch stop doesn't have to be used -- more than just self-defense spam if that's what you mean. I would say that Sloonei pushed for a sprityo lynch at the very end.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
He does if he doesn't want to have to stop the lynch?
Daisy has asked Marmot whether the host post will reflect a lynch stop, so maybe it's best to wait to see if we'll get an answer.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 0]
Wilgy stuff
This was Wilgy's first substantive post, and it follows the typical catch-up multi-quote string. I think this is a pretty big post which does not do anything. He answered Quin's prompt from Day 0 approximately 80 years after it stopped being relevant. He called Spacedaisy scum, sort of, and didn't do anything with it. He asked a vague question about Epi's meta. I don't know what the point of this stuff is.
Wilgy asks a bunch of questions and then poops on Sloonei for asking a bunch of questions
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This was Wilgy's first substantive post, and it follows the typical catch-up multi-quote string. I think this is a pretty big post which does not do anything. He answered Quin's prompt from Day 0 approximately 80 years after it stopped being relevant. He called Spacedaisy scum, sort of, and didn't do anything with it. He asked a vague question about Epi's meta. I don't know what the point of this stuff is.
Wilgy asks a bunch of questions and then poops on Sloonei for asking a bunch of questions
Tell me a time you did it.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I don't expect anyone to make any massive posts. I like and encourage massive posts, but I have not demanded them. I have said that in a game that moves this quickly, a pace you acknowledge in this post, that a mafia team is more challenged to keep up than they typically would be. This presents a condition wherein, if my premise is accepted, low-posters would be more likely to flip mafia than they would in most other [slower-paced] games. Do you disagree with this premise?sig wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:33 am Howdy, sorry for not voting, I'd have gone for Daisy or LC since I didn't really see the case on any player. I'll address Daisy really fast, but first I want to say I really dislike the movement from her and JJJ to go after low posters who are kind off present, but not. I'll be totally honest I'm not very present and I find it odd people expect massive posts thanksgiving weekend. I also didn't expect this game to have 1400+ posts before day 3.
So since no lynches are impossible at this point one of the two, I'm assuming Jack due to vote break down has to be civ? Since mafia doesn't have a lynch survivor. Either way one of the two players should be seen as lock clear civ.
It must be stated that simply "lynch a low-poster" is not adequate for a day's dialogue. Assess everyone as always, and if it is a low-poster who is lynched, ensure that it's an educated choice based upon whatever content does exist among them.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 0]
Seinfeld and it saved my ass for at least a phase.JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Fri Nov 24, 2017 5:44 am Wilgy stuff
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This was Wilgy's first substantive post, and it follows the typical catch-up multi-quote string. I think this is a pretty big post which does not do anything. He answered Quin's prompt from Day 0 approximately 80 years after it stopped being relevant. He called Spacedaisy scum, sort of, and didn't do anything with it. He asked a vague question about Epi's meta. I don't know what the point of this stuff is.
Wilgy asks a bunch of questions and then poops on Sloonei for asking a bunch of questions
Tell me a time you did it.