Mountain Mafia [END]

[Quin]

Jack

[Jackofhearts2005]

Quin.

You've taken some flack for talking without saying things, despite isos and a number of people reading you as town.

What is your one opinion or bit of analysis that you have provided that should be underlined, that should be getting more attention?

[Quin]

Quin.

You've taken some flack for talking without saying things, despite isos and a number of people reading you as town.

What is your one opinion or bit of analysis that you have provided that should be underlined, that should be getting more attention?

Sloonei, probably. It's the most "urgent" of my reads right now. I'd like some opinions on my initial gripe (what I saw as dancing around my question re: Epi pressure vote).

[Quin]

I'm feeling better about him after he came out with his case on bob (still need to read it), but I'd like some opinions as to whether I'm being unreasonable in that one instance.

[Sloonei]

Sloonei is town

[speedchuck]

Sloonei is town

How did you arrive at that

[Sloonei]

Sloonei is town

How did you arrive at that

A magician never reveals his secret.

[Long Con]

Sloonei is town

How did you arrive at that

A magician never reveals his secret.

But should a secretion reveal its magic?

[Sloonei]

There's nothing magic about it, it's all base material.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Alternative theory:

Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy

I firmly believe Sloonei is good. He feels good. He's been thinking and he's working.

Tell me why you think he's bad.

Ugh. This night. Now to go see why I was almost lynched.

On the off chance of vote shenanigans...


Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.

Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.

Everyone else mostly null.

Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.

The first post came just before the poll deadline, and the next two came after -- but before Marmot posted the [non]results.

Focus on the latter two posts. The highlighted portions suggest a player who does not anticipate being lynched despite being tied for the tally lead. Sloonei also projected a no-lynch as Spacedaisy has observed with "lynching me will be a waste of time". Neither of these two seemed to be very concerned about dying. One can assert that Jack's projection of survival barring vote shenanigans is evidence of the influence of Sutter Buttes, but then I have to question if he would say that. The poll was tied. Sloonei dying would have appeared to be the result of a coin flip; there's no need to make one's own mafia-driven voting advantage public before the results are revealed. If it's a civilian-driven advantage though (i.e. Everest)? Sure.

The first post above I also brought out to consider the notion that Jack stopped the lynch instead, given that he was firmly good on Sloonei. That'd give him a motive to put a stop to a tied lynch featuring a firm civilian read and himself at the gallows. This one is more difficult to believe though given the third quoted post -- "vote shenanigans" shouldn't matter to someone who is about to stop a lynch. This notion would require some semantic gymnastics.

Summarizing the theory:

~ Civilian Sloonei stopped the lynch/wasn't lynchable
~ Civilian Jack expected to survive because of his double vote

Other possibilities which are applicable – Matterhorn is somehow involved / Olympus Mons is somehow involved. Their “secrets” can be pretty much anything, and a lynch survival for OM especially wouldn’t surprise me.

Gimme those delicious thoughts.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay Am I getting an ISO? You said you needed to look at me more closely.

Thanks for the reminder, bae. I'll get to it. For the moment I think you look alright -- I appreciate the reversal on Sloonei when he put up the colonialbob case.

[Quin]

Alternative theory:

Switching to Sprityo. At time of posting, I've read like none of his content (cause he had none when I left) so that sounds better than lynching Sloonei.

Whyyyyyyyyyyyy

I firmly believe Sloonei is good. He feels good. He's been thinking and he's working.

Tell me why you think he's bad.

Ugh. This night. Now to go see why I was almost lynched.

On the off chance of vote shenanigans...


Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.

Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.

Everyone else mostly null.

Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.

The first post came just before the poll deadline, and the next two came after -- but before Marmot posted the [non]results.

Focus on the latter two posts. The highlighted portions suggest a player who does not anticipate being lynched despite being tied for the tally lead. Sloonei also projected a no-lynch as Spacedaisy has observed with "lynching me will be a waste of time". Neither of these two seemed to be very concerned about dying. One can assert that Jack's projection of survival barring vote shenanigans is evidence of the influence of Sutter Buttes, but then I have to question if he would say that. The poll was tied. Sloonei dying would have appeared to be the result of a coin flip; there's no need to make one's own mafia-driven voting advantage public before the results are revealed. If it's a civilian-driven advantage though (i.e. Everest)? Sure.

The first post above I also brought out to consider the notion that Jack stopped the lynch instead, given that he was firmly good on Sloonei. That'd give him a motive to put a stop to a tied lynch featuring a firm civilian read and himself at the gallows. This one is more difficult to believe though given the third quoted post -- "vote shenanigans" shouldn't matter to someone who is about to stop a lynch. This notion would require some semantic gymnastics.

Summarizing the theory:

~ Civilian Sloonei stopped the lynch/wasn't lynchable
~ Civilian Jack expected to survive because of his double vote

Other possibilities which are applicable – Matterhorn is somehow involved / Olympus Mons is somehow involved. Their “secrets” can be pretty much anything, and a lynch survival for OM especially wouldn’t surprise me.

Gimme those delicious thoughts.

I was also in the Jack is/did something camp, so I can appreciate this. Some of Sloonei's posts towards the end felt more 'I don't care about getting lynched because the game goes on without me.', not 'I don't care about getting lynched because I won't be getting lynched.'

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

[Quin]

If Sloonei is about to stop (possibly) his own lynch, he doesn't spam out the thread right before EoD. Yes/No?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@colonialbob I happen to disagree with most every D2 read you've posted, so I'm [retty sure I'd read you scum if I ISO'd you. The lack of defense you're getting in this is kinda disturbing.

I mean, sloon had a good argument, but everyone's just like 'sure' so far and we townies haven't been uniform on anything all game.

Does anyone think Cbob is town? Why?

I wouldn't label bob a town read. Question for you: what do you mean to imply with the highlighted comment?

Spacedaisy seems way more town than normal.

Quin seems consistent wit his cc123 performance. ???

I have no sig opinion yet

What is the purpose of this post?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If Sloonei is about to stop (possibly) his own lynch, he doesn't spam out the thread right before EoD. Yes/No?

I would expect to see a concerted effort from Sloonei to lynch someone else so that the lynch stop doesn't have to be used -- more than just self-defense spam if that's what you mean. I would say that Sloonei pushed for a sprityo lynch at the very end.

[Quin]

If Sloonei is about to stop (possibly) his own lynch, he doesn't spam out the thread right before EoD. Yes/No?

He does if he doesn't want to have to stop the lynch?

Daisy has asked Marmot whether the host post will reflect a lynch stop, so maybe it's best to wait to see if we'll get an answer.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wilgy stuff

Spoiler: show

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

Because there's too little knowledge in the game to be setting a hard POE at this point.

@Long Con Lost Again 3 comes to mind. But whatever man. I don't feel the need to prove I can play a good scum game. Especially given the fact that I am not scum in this game.

That's exactly what Scumdaisy would say.

... I have never heard the terms "Good boys" "Bad boys" or "Wild boys" used here. Are you from an alternate reality?

It's gonna become the new thing. Just you wait.

What about Spicy Bois?

He's buddying them, and then intimidating you out of an adversarial position. He's setting up a long game. That's not what Civ Epignosis cares to do.

I could see all of this being applicable to Epi in his current form. But he is as crafty a townie as he is scum, so I'm not going to leap to any quick decisions on him.

There has to be a more often than not though. What can you best describe as Epi's civ behavior vs Epi's mafia behavior?

Now onto day 1.

This was Wilgy's first substantive post, and it follows the typical catch-up multi-quote string. I think this is a pretty big post which does not do anything. He answered Quin's prompt from Day 0 approximately 80 years after it stopped being relevant. He called Spacedaisy scum, sort of, and didn't do anything with it. He asked a vague question about Epi's meta. I don't know what the point of this stuff is.

Wilgy asks a bunch of questions and then poops on Sloonei for asking a bunch of questions

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

No, I do this all the time as scum for Civ cred. The fact that you are pointing it out ruins it.

I just got home and still am not caught up. I'm still ok with my vote based on what I have read.

Tell me a time you did it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Howdy, sorry for not voting, I'd have gone for Daisy or LC since I didn't really see the case on any player. I'll address Daisy really fast, but first I want to say I really dislike the movement from her and JJJ to go after low posters who are kind off present, but not. I'll be totally honest I'm not very present and I find it odd people expect massive posts thanksgiving weekend. I also didn't expect this game to have 1400+ posts before day 3.

So since no lynches are impossible at this point one of the two, I'm assuming Jack due to vote break down has to be civ? Since mafia doesn't have a lynch survivor. Either way one of the two players should be seen as lock clear civ.

I don't expect anyone to make any massive posts. I like and encourage massive posts, but I have not demanded them. I have said that in a game that moves this quickly, a pace you acknowledge in this post, that a mafia team is more challenged to keep up than they typically would be. This presents a condition wherein, if my premise is accepted, low-posters would be more likely to flip mafia than they would in most other [slower-paced] games. Do you disagree with this premise?

It must be stated that simply "lynch a low-poster" is not adequate for a day's dialogue. Assess everyone as always, and if it is a low-poster who is lynched, ensure that it's an educated choice based upon whatever content does exist among them.

[DrWilgy]

Wilgy stuff

Spoiler: show

ima vote epignosis whenever and i'd like someone to tell me why that is

Because there's too little knowledge in the game to be setting a hard POE at this point.

@Long Con Lost Again 3 comes to mind. But whatever man. I don't feel the need to prove I can play a good scum game. Especially given the fact that I am not scum in this game.

That's exactly what Scumdaisy would say.

... I have never heard the terms "Good boys" "Bad boys" or "Wild boys" used here. Are you from an alternate reality?

It's gonna become the new thing. Just you wait.

What about Spicy Bois?

He's buddying them, and then intimidating you out of an adversarial position. He's setting up a long game. That's not what Civ Epignosis cares to do.

I could see all of this being applicable to Epi in his current form. But he is as crafty a townie as he is scum, so I'm not going to leap to any quick decisions on him.

There has to be a more often than not though. What can you best describe as Epi's civ behavior vs Epi's mafia behavior?

Now onto day 1.

This was Wilgy's first substantive post, and it follows the typical catch-up multi-quote string. I think this is a pretty big post which does not do anything. He answered Quin's prompt from Day 0 approximately 80 years after it stopped being relevant. He called Spacedaisy scum, sort of, and didn't do anything with it. He asked a vague question about Epi's meta. I don't know what the point of this stuff is.

Wilgy asks a bunch of questions and then poops on Sloonei for asking a bunch of questions

Anyone want to point out that if self-preservation was my goal right now I'd just switch my vote to jack and stop trying to pull people onto my preferred target? No? okay.

No, I do this all the time as scum for Civ cred. The fact that you are pointing it out ruins it.

I just got home and still am not caught up. I'm still ok with my vote based on what I have read.

Tell me a time you did it.

Seinfeld and it saved my ass for at least a phase.

[colonialbob]

PS I think Sloonei's ISO of me started with the premise that I was probably bad and surprisingly enough found reasons to confirm. I don't think that's alignment indicative, I think it's a problem with ISOing people you're not neutral on.

You still haven't addressed my primary concern, which was your behavior from the time you started suspecting me to the end of the day.
this post here also suggests you've reversed your opinion on me again.

I've reversed position on you for mechanical reasons. Town has the avoid lynch powers, so that makes you more likely to be town. Also Jack's non-tie vote bothers me and the more likely he is to be scum the less likely you are to be, since the w/w thing doesn't hold up mechanically.

My behavior from suspecting you until end of day? My choices were you, Jack, or sprit. I didn't want to vote sprit because I don't like going low poster this early. I could've voted Jack but my suspicions of you were fresher and less meta. I don't really get this "waving my vote in your face" complaint tbh.

I never got the impression you were honestly considering a vote change. You were poking Jay with some questions about sprityo and me, but I don't remember seeing you offer any critical thoughts of your own, and you never wavered for a moment from your position. Your vote was on me and you were acting like there was still room to change your mind, but I never saw evidence of this. I also feel like the confidence you expressed in your vote was not backed up by the justification you provided, but that's not something I can view objectively since I was the target of it.

Why didn't you vote for Jack?

Answered in the post you quoted...

I don't like that answer, you're just reasserting that you voted for me. What was the case against Jack and why did you not follow it?

The reasons I thought Jack was bad were that his game was reminding me of the Crossover game, where he spent the first phase alternately 'buddying' (using that term super loosely here) and going after me, and using very meta arguments on people. But I felt those reasons weren't as strong as the reasons I voted you, and you didn't give me a reason to move my vote.

And now you'll say you don't believe me, and I'll shrug and say "well then why ask me questions if you refuse to accept the answers?"

[Spacedaisy]

I was also in the Jack is/did something camp, so I can appreciate this. Some of Sloonei's posts towards the end felt more 'I don't care about getting lynched because the game goes on without me.', not 'I don't care about getting lynched because I won't be getting lynched.'

I could not disagree more with you here. Sloonei seemed to be encouraging people to question why he wasn't too worried. If it were just that he didn't care because the game would go on, he would not have done that.

[colonialbob]

I'm the people who enabled the tie to happen as well. Namely bob. I sincerely do not understand his behavior last night from a town perspective.

Go back and reread the phase with the assumption that you are mafia. Does my behavior look any different?

(You were my biggest scumread among the 3 who were lynch possibilities, why *wouldn't* I vote you?)

I do find it interesting nobody else who voted Sloonei is under any heat. Guess I should've just dropped my vote and left.

[colonialbob]

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

[Epignosis]

[Elohcin]

My thoughts exactly! But...at least there hace been no night kills on top of the no lynches. Its like having a VERY long Day 1. But I think it's about time we get this party started and killing some bad guys. Hopefully I can catch up by the time day starts again.

[colonialbob]

This is actually bizarro cc123

[Sloonei]

I'm the people who enabled the tie to happen as well. Namely bob. I sincerely do not understand his behavior last night from a town perspective.

Go back and reread the phase with the assumption that you are mafia. Does my behavior look any different?

(You were my biggest scumread among the 3 who were lynch possibilities, why *wouldn't* I vote you?)

I do find it interesting nobody else who voted Sloonei is under any heat. Guess I should've just dropped my vote and left.

I don't necessarily fault you for voting for me. I fault you for the ease with which your vote switched to me and the confidence you displayed after that.

Who will be on your short list of suspects if Day 3 ever starts?

[Sloonei]

Of the other people who voted for me: Epi and Quin are town. I believe they both believed I've been less than honest. Both of them have mistakenly pursued me like this in the past and the way they've gone about their suspicions is not out of character for either of them. I also believe in their larger outputs this game.

Elohcin and sprityo were my two biggest suspects during the day. I'm not dropping them, they just haven't been around. Happy Thanksgiving. Sprit's vote was pure self-defense, but he'll still need to explain why it went to me instead of Jack. He's done nothing to make me believe he's town. Eloh seemed to OMGUS/NO U me. That was the impression I got, at least. She doesn't like the case I made against her and put a vote on me for it. I don't find this suspicious. If anything it makes me feel better about her. I'm less likely to vote for her now than I was on Day 2.

[Sloonei]

"Why did you vote for Jack?" -- Kylemii edition

Spoiler: show

Hey Jack quick question, about how does accusing someone of being one of the Good Boyz poke them?

Hey Jack quick question, about how does accusing someone of being one of the Good Boyz poke them?

Can I answer?

I wanna hear from Jack :0

Kyle was on Jack's case from Day 0. I don't think there was a direct continuation of this line of suspicion through to Day 2, but it's easy to see evidence that there was some close attention being paid to Jack from the very beginning from Kyle.

tie strategy nearly caught 2/3 of the scumteam in pirate game and only failed because we didn't follow through with it/followed through on the wrong people

You out to nearly catch some scum?

disrespectful.

Who is bad, Kyle? Lots of content today.

honestly today's content has given me more good vibes than bad ones

Epignosis still looks bad to me, but his only contributions today have been defending against LC. I was hoping to talk them into ignoring each other for a few hours so we could get some isolated reads from his behaviors but he logged off.

nutella's confidence that LC v Epi 'wasn't getting us anywhere' still bugs me, and her expressing familiarity with such situations without providing much more insight into the topic seems problematic

Sloonei and LC I'm reading town, I also feel pretty okay about Quin

Responds to Jack's prod for reads by saying he has "more good vibes than bad" on Day 1. He doesn't make a specific mention of Jack in the reads he lists after, but Jack was his interrogator here and Kyle responded positively and without hostility, so I get more of a friendly vibe than a suspicious one here. But this is Day 1, not Day 2.

Jack and Kyle began an extended dialogue about the effectiveness of ties near the end of Day 1 with the recently-ended Pirates game as their reference. Kyle eventually started to feel the discussion was "exhausting and pointless". Looking over their arguments, it's more a debate about mafia theory than anything. They both have points they want to make about vote analysis and they're making them. I'm inclined to read it as two townies going back and forth. Kyle's read on Jack in this game is unclear at this time. But he starts Day 2 off with this vague post:

I want to look at Jack today, I agree with K2 that something seems off about him.

I feel a little better about epignosis every time he says literally anything other than a defense against LC's thing which.... fuck, idk. I think maybe he's just weird. I think someone else pointed out though that without epigs bad responses the case is basically built out of mundane garbage

"Something seems off" is the most hollow accusation in the mafia lexicon. It's not always a sign of badness; sometimes we just have trouble pinpointing the source of fishiness. But kyle's going to need to substantiate this read between here and the time he places his vote for me to buy it.

Like if the idea is that baddies are vultures around Epi so Epi is good, why are the three of you not interested in catching those baddies?

referring to people who were okay with lynching epig as vultures probably prevented an epig lynch for better or worse.

Kind of contests a point made by Jack but not really in an accusatory way.

My motivation was that Kyle just asked me to weigh in on stuff I had already weighed in on. So I was like "no."

Who was I gonna save?

I have a problem with this. You and I were talking about the usefulness of using close lynches as a valid scum hunting tactic in appropriate contexts.

I asked you why the discussion was so important to you that you felt the need to respond so passionately about it and you never responded. The moment I invited you to discuss the options for the current lynch you decided you were done for the night and left.

Alright, this is Grade A Beef. You do you, Kyle.

My motivation was that Kyle just asked me to weigh in on stuff I had already weighed in on. So I was like "no."

Who was I gonna save?

I have a problem with this. You and I were talking about the usefulness of using close lynches as a valid scum hunting tactic in appropriate contexts.

I asked you why the discussion was so important to you that you felt the need to respond so passionately about it and you never responded. The moment I invited you to discuss the options for the current lynch you decided you were done for the night and left.

Didn't I? And hadn't I already stated in extreme detail my feelings on LC, Epi and Nutella?

ISO me.

I literally just did. My point still stands.

"I've already said my opinions once so I refuse to think about them more or talk about them again when someone asks" is not a pro town attitude

especially when the person making the request is one of your town reads

Continuation of the same beef. Jack feels he's offered his thoughts. Kyle wants to go into more detail.

@Kylemii

It's nothing personal. I worked 30 hours in the last 3 days and just clocked out. My posts are alternating between the most recent thing aimed at me or that I find super interesting when I refresh the page and my catch-up from 5 pages back. I promise to answer you tomorrow or maybe even tonight. :cheers:

Alright.

Jack's job is stressful and he promises to share things later.

I did an ISO on Sloonei and I guess..... Idk I wouldn't be opposed to his lynch today but Jack still bugs me for a lot of reasons so I'm putting my vote there

Kyle tosses half-hearted support for lynching me into the thread before settling on Jack because he's not fulfilled his promise to share more reads yet. Jack would show up about an hour later to see himself tied with me for the lead in the poll.

I don't hate this vote from kyle, but I don't love it either. I can buy that he had reason to be wary of Jack, but I'm not sure I agree that Jack was the best option, and the way he tacked suspicion onto me near the end also could be read as covering all his bases. I'm not sure I'd agree with that notion, but it's a possibility.

I've had kyle as a town read and this analysis does only a tiny bit to move the needle in the opposite direction on him. Still town, but with a little more caution than before.

[Sloonei]

"Why did you vote for Jack?" -- nutella edition

lol jack if you think me being lazy is a scumtell you haven't played with me enough. you were spoiled in phenon, that was one of my best civ performances. I am normally lazy af and flipflopping all over the place, anyone can tell you that. I'm trying to change up my style anyway so it's less obvious, and have decided to go with a fast-and-loose, whatever-I-feel-like-saying style this game, and I've decided you're bad so I'm voting for you and I decided not to get deeply involved in discussion because, yeah, I'm lazy, deal with it

linki: wait you think I'm epi's scumbuddy? lol what? I very nearly voted for him first. I'm fine with him being lynched.

nutella feels Jack's Day 1 case against her is totally bogus and out of line. At face value that's a pretty good reason to suspect a person, but I won't be quick to pass judgment on which one of them I believe more here. It's nice to have a clear conflict, though. I could see this being a town/scum interaction one way or the other, but not a scum/scum interaction. Town/town is also a possibility.

I'll join nutella in her Jack vote for his scumslip.

wait what? is it him saying "a few good townies" or something else that I'm missing

When I asked him how his post was a scum tell, he said "I don't know" instead of "It's not a scumtell, and cannot be because I'm a Civ."

ah see I didn't entirely follow that thread since y'all kept screwing up the quotes. but I agree with your initial assessment of his sprityo prodding-- that was part of what made me decide he's bad.


vote returning to jack

It's unclear whether or not nutella buys into the alleged scumslip LC is proposing here. I think that allegation is completely bogus. But nutella is happy that somebody else is suspicious of Jack and moves her vote back to him. This is not alarming.

Reiterates and maintains the Jack suspicion as she faces a lynch on Day 1. I'd need to refresh myself on the Day 1 poll here. She also lists Quin and Kyle as suspects while holding that Jack is a suspect for his bogus case against her. If she suspects one play of fabricating a case against her, it's reasonable to consider she might suspect others of the same crime. Jack was not the only person voting for her on Day 1.

Here she expresses a willingness to back off of Jack if the discussion goes in a different direction.

Good puke Jay. I quite enjoyed the "meta pajamas" analogy. I also found your assessment of Jack to have merit and will keep that in mind as I sort out how I feel about him. And I agree with your funky vibes from DDL; even given that he's been posting while catching up, a lot of his posts have felt vague and directionless.

Tell me how you feel about all of the players whose usernames begin with S: sig, Sloonei, Spacedaisy, speedchuck, and sprityo.

Appreciates Jay's somewhat favorable view of Jack and pledges to keep it in mind.

DDL's recent slew of posts have flipped him over to a town read. I'm back to being more likely to vote for Jack, but am open to other options.

I'm not interested in lynching Dom because I think he has most likely forgotten about the game and that is more likely to happen if he is civ than if he is bad, yeah?

Working on a rainbow.

Jay must not have made a very strong impression because shortly after nutella is back on board with lynching Jack with no further elaboration. Then she puts him at the bottom of her rainbow. I'd have to ask nutella how her thoughts developed on Jack between the time she pledged to keep an open mind about him and these posts. It doesn't appear that anything truly changed her mind at all, which isn't necessarily bad, but I'm seeing a gap in the thought process here. I'd like for it to be filled in.

My motivation was that Kyle just asked me to weigh in on stuff I had already weighed in on. So I was like "no."

Who was I gonna save?

I have a problem with this. You and I were talking about the usefulness of using close lynches as a valid scum hunting tactic in appropriate contexts.

I asked you why the discussion was so important to you that you felt the need to respond so passionately about it and you never responded. The moment I invited you to discuss the options for the current lynch you decided you were done for the night and left.

Didn't I? And hadn't I already stated in extreme detail my feelings on LC, Epi and Nutella?

ISO me.

I literally just did. My point still stands.

"I've already said my opinions once so I refuse to think about them more or talk about them again when someone asks" is not a pro town attitude

especially when the person making the request is one of your town reads

g o o f f

jack

Likes a thing that kyle said about Jack.

This is what I don't get about so many people in the early game. "Epignosis isn't exhibiting town behavior."

When do I?

"Epignosis is doing suspicious things."

When don't I?

Y'all need to realize your mafia try to do their best to look good so y'all don't say this shit about them in the early game.

Sloonei fits this. He looks like he's trying to be a civilian leader, but I don't find his effort honest.

I'm listening.

I feel this way about Jack and Quin, but I'd be open to reconsidering Sloonei as well.

Offers an open mind to Epi's suspicion of me but maintains that she feels more strongly about Quin and Jack. I find this post believable and honest. She then asked a bunch of people to share their thoughts on Jack, and post-lynch-failure seemed to reconsider her read but then returned to scum reading him.

There's no shortage of evidence that nutella suspects Jack in here. There's also still the theory that she's Everest, given the evidence that she anticipated a tie at the end of Day 1. I'm inclined to read nutella as town and believe her vote came from an honest place, but I'd still like my one question (above, underlined) to be answered.

[Sloonei]

"Why did you vote for Jack?" -- DDL edition

Yeah but I don't have a read on you yet.

(I don't actually have a read on Sprityo, either. I'm just poking him.)

You have a weird definition for "poking".

Objects to Jack poking sprityo on Day 0.

@Elohcin
@Dragon D. Luffy

Who kind of wants to vote for Epi?

People that think Epi is scum but are voting for someone they also think is scum don't count. Who are the vultures?

You guys really like names don't you.

Resists being asked to name suspects on Day 1.

I hate this argument about ties.

One of Kyle and Jack is bad.

Calling it now.

Thinks that one of Kyle/Jack is bad due to their discussion about vote ties. I don't think it has to be this way. I'd ask DDL why he does.

I've said my piece on today's lynch. Plenty of other people haven't provided much content so I'll give them a chance to catch up or speak.

I'll be lurking until EOD in case anyone has questions or I need to move my vote.

This post gives me a very political vibe.

I hate politicians.

I made a mental note of the same vibe from this Jack post. I didn't like it, especially considering that, upon further review, Jack really hadn't said all that much (according to me) about the lynch. There was still plenty for him to talk about, but he was acting as if he'd done all that he could and it was on everyone else to make a decision now.

Okay so I'm 13 pages in and I'm getting sleepy. When I get sleepy I get stupid. I'll read the rest tomorrow.

I'll leave a "rainbow":

quin - civ
speed - civ
eloh - civ
bob - civ

LC - bad
nutella - bad
jack - bad
sprityo - bad

rest - neutral/idk

linki: holy shit Sloonei you ninja'd me

Lists both Jack and nutella as bad. I don't see it. DDL, why did you see them both as bad at this time?

I've said my piece on today's lynch. Plenty of other people haven't provided much content so I'll give them a chance to catch up or speak.

I'll be lurking until EOD in case anyone has questions or I need to move my vote.

This post gives me a very political vibe.

I hate politicians.

I have four times as many posts as you, you're annoyed at all the posts but me stopping posting for the night is bad indicative.

K.

You are interpreted it wrong.

I couldn't care less about you stopping for the night.

I just didn't like the way you put it. Seems like you are reading yourself for a possible jump near EoD to save a teammate, while at the same time excusing yourself for not posting.

You don't need to relay that kind of information if you are a civ. I'm looking at your motivation for doing it. Feels like a politician wanting to excuse bad deeds.

Further elaboration of the "politician" post from earlier. I can buy this as a genuine suspicion.

He explains his Jack/Kyle dichotomy here. I guess it makes sense as an explanation, though I'm still not sure I'd agree that his proposed relationship has to be the case, but it's not an inexcusable thought to have.

DDL, why'd you vote nutella yesterday? Where's it gonna go today? Can you tell me a little bit about those town reads of yours?

Didn't like her extreme fence sitting and general apathy.

Still don't. Though some more recent posts of her felt genuine. But I'm not voting for her in the foreseeable future due to the vote tie mechanic thingy. I take mechanical evidence of alignment over my personal reads anytime.

I'm voting for Jack. Been having a bad feeling about him for a while, although it's hard to describe. I pointed out some posts that pinged me more, the rest is just gut.

LC gives me a bad gut feeling too, though it's weaker.

Re: town reads. I liked the way you were analysing posts early. Felt very pro-active. I liked how Bob talked about you, and his point about changing votes. I thought Eloh's suspicion on Epi looked genuine. Speed looked very town when he came in in the middle of day 1 and started questioning things. I'm now feeling good about Daisy for her reads on Epi and Nutella too, so add her to the list.

Here's the actual vote. This post itself is not terribly descriptive of his reasons, but they're clear enough to find by digging through his posts. I can trace the suspicion and it is at the very least well-established before he arrives at this vote.

DDL, why'd you vote nutella yesterday? Where's it gonna go today? Can you tell me a little bit about those town reads of yours?

I'm voting for Jack. Been having a bad feeling about him for a while, although it's hard to describe. I pointed out some posts that pinged me more, the rest is just gut.

LC gives me a bad gut feeling too, though it's weaker.

My greatest weakness as a townie is my difficulty distinguishing townies who are lazy/unable to put their reads into words and baddies.

Convince me you're a townie who is wrong and unable to put his reads into words and not a scummer who is lying.

-> lazy
-> wrong

Sorry I'm not biting your attempt to make me feel bad.

My current stance of scumhunting is that 99% of all scumhunting methods are snake oil.

I'll not give a long and elaborated analysis on you because I don't have one. Neither I intend to do a long and complicated ISO on you that will ultimately fuel my confirmation bias and make me suspect you more. I've lynched too many civs after ISOing them and concluding they were bad. I'll go by what gave me the feeling of you being bad, which is good enough. For now. Maybe.

DDL doesn't want to go into greater detail about his read. This makes it a little more difficult to read him, but I think I understand his reasons for not wanting to dive into ISO nonsense. He feels it doesn't work for him, and he's trying to find his comfort zone.

You do have one point though, that since we are in an extended Day 1 we would maybe prefer to maximise information, and leave the low posters for later. We don't have to lynch the low posting baddies first.

As such, a lynch on Jack, or LC, or Epi, or Sloonei would produce new avenues for futures lynches. Even if they flip civ (but especially if they flip bad).

He includes Jack and myself in a list of names who would "produce new avenues" in the future. I dislike this philosophy, but I don't think it has to mean he's scum. I only bring it up here because it adds further justification (in DDL's mind) for lynching Jack.

I feel better about DDL after this exercise than I did coming into it. I get the sense that he may actually see something in Jack that causes suspicion and I may even be starting to see it myself.

How are you feeling about Jack now, Mr. Luffy?

[Sloonei]

"Why did you vote for Jack?" -- DrWilgy edition

Of course, I do like Doc. Hes a fun fellow even if Dunsparce is lame.

And now my feelings are hurt. *voting JoH*

Quin/Sloonei not w/w imo.

Do you still think this to be true?

I would never do ab&c as scum and therefore the best time to do ab&c would be as scum to fool people.

Also, people get lazy.

Ergo "I am not that bad at being bad" or "I wouldn't say that if I was bad" arguement a tend to be super unconvincing to me.

I hate unconvincing arguements. That's where the hate is coming from.

When you break down all conversation in mafia to it's smallest bits all that is left is the WIFOM. Do you just hate Mafia?

I appreciate that Wilgy has been sharing his thoughts as he gets caught up, even if they're irrelevant to what is going on in the present because it allows losers like me to go back and figure out why he feels the way he does. That said, his vote amounts to a joke with a couple generic prods to accompany it. Wilgy was around near the end of the day as evidenced by this post and was "comfortable" with his Jack vote. I dunno. I don't see why Jack was the most compelling option in Wilgy's mind. He had about as many, if not more, questions critical of me as he did for Jack. I don't really know what to do with any of this.

[Kylemii]

I did an ISO on Sloonei and I guess..... Idk I wouldn't be opposed to his lynch today but Jack still bugs me for a lot of reasons so I'm putting my vote there

Kyle tosses half-hearted support for lynching me into the thread before settling on Jack because he's not fulfilled his promise to share more reads yet. Jack would show up about an hour later to see himself tied with me for the lead in the poll.

I don't hate this vote from kyle, but I don't love it either. I can buy that he had reason to be wary of Jack, but I'm not sure I agree that Jack was the best option, and the way he tacked suspicion onto me near the end also could be read as covering all his bases. I'm not sure I'd agree with that notion, but it's a possibility.

I've had kyle as a town read and this analysis does only a tiny bit to move the needle in the opposite direction on him. Still town, but with a little more caution than before.

I got bad vibes from some of your posts during my ISO, but not others. I'd suspected Jack off and on for most of the game. When I mentioned you it was because you were in the lead of votes. I was this close to doing the regular "it's end of day let's overly scrutinize everything that's ever happened really quick and get really anxious for no reason " but then I realized that that sucks. So instead of doing that, I voted for Jack who was a suspect of mine and and was falling behind in the polls. I would have dug more into the case against you but I was tired. I also didn't vote for Jack for just not sharing reads, I voted for him because I didn't think he was viewing this game through a townie mindset based on his words and actions. I've since changed my views on you both.

[Sloonei]

"Why did you vote for Jack?" -- speedchuck edition

BTW, not lynching Jack or Quin today

Not lynching Jack on Day 1.

Objects to his orange placement on Jack's rainbow.

Go ahead and elaborate on your read of me, while you're at it, Jack.

speedchuck continues to voice soft skepticism of Jack's read of him. It's unclear how speedchuck is reading jack at this time.

Go ahead and elaborate on your read of me, while you're at it, Jack.

Didn't like the way you came in shooting at LC but then fell on Nutella.

I went back and looked at your posts. You were with LC practically the whole time. Lost some points with me there, mate. Twas a poor case.

As I recall, you ended up on Nutella too, so

Throws Jack's words back in his face. I like this post and it suggests the beginning of a case against Jack.

So I wasn't here for dayend, and I moved from Sprityo to Jack to try and save sloonei from a BS lynch. Kinda wish I hadn't now.

And Jack wasn't an infinitely better option.

Cbob is easy for me to see as scum, and I'm glad someone brought it up. I didn't feel like posting much during the day. It all started when Cbob saw my firey post against LC and jumped on the bandwagon against him. But for those that remember, my post train wasn't condemning of LC's alignment, only his reasoning. Cbob wasn't looking for a read, he was looking for an excuse.

In general, it feels like Cbob is trying to hide his lack of scumhunting behind aggression and agreement, depending on the tide of the game. Most of the end of D2 had Cbob waving his vote in sloon's face without substantiating it or arguing it.

"But he seems so confident!"
Yeah, that's what I do as scum. I'd vote there.

Sprit is still somewhat below null for me. The freak-out/leave-thread post didn't really affect that.

Sloon is top town read (and was before the lynch, thanks). DDL is prob good. I waffle on Jack.

Regarding Sig's spec: I usually don't worry about 3rd parties until a kill shows up. Or at least some kind of marks.

Oh. So it was more about having a town read on me than having a scum read on Jack, and chuck admits to waffling on him. I still like that one post from earlier.

I've come out of this exercise liking the Jack wagon better than I did before. Wilgy's is the only vote I have no reason to like.
And if Jack is scum, I can easily see cbob's handling of the EoD being that of a teammate trying to protect his partner without actually appearing to support him. He's maintained that he suspected Jack but opted to let the day end in a tie between the two of us instead. Because, you know, I have to keep tunneling on cbob.

[Sloonei]

I did an ISO on Sloonei and I guess..... Idk I wouldn't be opposed to his lynch today but Jack still bugs me for a lot of reasons so I'm putting my vote there

Kyle tosses half-hearted support for lynching me into the thread before settling on Jack because he's not fulfilled his promise to share more reads yet. Jack would show up about an hour later to see himself tied with me for the lead in the poll.

I don't hate this vote from kyle, but I don't love it either. I can buy that he had reason to be wary of Jack, but I'm not sure I agree that Jack was the best option, and the way he tacked suspicion onto me near the end also could be read as covering all his bases. I'm not sure I'd agree with that notion, but it's a possibility.

I've had kyle as a town read and this analysis does only a tiny bit to move the needle in the opposite direction on him. Still town, but with a little more caution than before.

I got bad vibes from some of your posts during my ISO, but not others. I'd suspected Jack off and on for most of the game. When I mentioned you it was because you were in the lead of votes. I was this close to doing the regular "it's end of day let's overly scrutinize everything that's ever happened really quick and get really anxious for no reason " but then I realized that that sucks. So instead of doing that, I voted for Jack who was a suspect of mine and and was falling behind in the polls. I would have dug more into the case against you but I was tired. I also didn't vote for Jack for just not sharing reads, I voted for him because I didn't think he was viewing this game through a townie mindset based on his words and actions. I've since changed my views on you both.

Who do you suspect now? Why has your view of Jack changed?

[Sloonei]

If there's one thing I got out of that exercise, it's that Jack is the most controversial player in this game right now. Everyone seems to be waffling all over him, myself included. Jack, please be easier to read in the future.

[Kylemii]

Who do you suspect now? Why has your view of Jack changed?

i spent most of yesterday playing hide and seek with a 6 year old who is very bad at it but I had to pretend like she was really good at it even though she kept hiding under the same table each and every time, but sometimes that's just how it is when you're 6, so I haven't had the time or energy to do much more than skim the thread recently.

I believe Jack to be civ because he implied that he knew he would survive the lynch. I think someone brought up some discrepancies in his behavior leading up to it that might imply that that wasn't the case so I want to make sure to look through that timeframe again myself.

[Sloonei]

Top of my head rainbow:
Spacedaisy
Epignosis
Quin
Kylemii
nutella
speedchuck
Long Con
JaggedJimmyJay
Dragon D. Luffy
Elohcin
DrWilgy
Mesk514
insertnamehere
Dom
sig
Jackofhearts2005
sprityo
colonialbob

Too many neutrals because we've got too many quiet players.

[Kylemii]

I'm sure you probably mentioned this but is there a reason you did those for Jack voters and not your own voters?

[Sloonei]

I've been completely ignoring the existence of an independent role in this game. Olympus Mons exists. Somebody has that role.

[Sloonei]

I'm sure you probably mentioned this but is there a reason you did those for Jack voters and not your own voters?

I explained my thoughts on the people who voted for me here. I know where I stand on all of them and why they voted for me. I wasn't sure why Jack was the other popular candidate and no one was talking about it. It's like you all had things to do yesterday and today.

[Sloonei]

I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

[nutella]

You're right Sloonei, my thoughts didn't really change much on Jack in that time. Jay pointed out one small thing that made Jack look good in his eyes, and I liked his reasoning, but it was just based on one little thing and it was not nearly a strong enough "only town would do this" in my mind to outweigh the bad vibes I've gotten from the rest of Jack's posts throughout the game. So yeah, I said I'd have an open mind, but on day 2 he continued to look bad to me, and when the lynch ended up between you and him it was no question that my vote was going to stay on him. Especially after his little back-and-forth with Kyle; I think he came out of that looking worse than before.

As a side note, I feel like both you and Jack are misinterpreting/misrepresenting the balance of my reasons for suspecting him -- the thing about his misguided meta-read of me was really not a significant reason at all. I understand that he has an unusual sample to draw from and I was just pointing out that he doesn't have an entirely representative view of my usual meta (although since it is a recent sample perhaps his perspective reflects a trend in my evolving style, which is interesting to note and may mean his perspective on me is actually quite valuable going forward). Anyway, I suppose I mentioned his inaccurate read of me in my D1 post about him, but I believe it was coming from an honest place given his experience playing with me, and in general as with most of my reasons for suspecting him, it was not so much what he said but how he said it in the context of the rest of his posts.

My suspicion of him on day 1 was largely instinct-based; I decided that I was getting a disingenuous vibe from nearly all of his content and got the sense that he was trying his best to look helpful while not actually putting a lot of effort or motivation behind his responses to thread discussion (mainly the Epi stuff). On day 2 this continued; while I briefly hoped to give him a chance to improve my read of him, he mostly just made it worse. Now with the lynch shenanigans, I have reason to believe my/daisy's theory about Sutter Buttes is one of the most likely explanations and that he is bad; however, I recognize that there are also some distinct possibilities involving him being town, and determining that is just a bit too messy right now so I'm waffling on whether I want to try to lynch him again tomorrow or not in case I am wrong. I would also be 100% in favor of lynching sprityo, and that may be a safer option given the confusion surrounding the no-lynch.

[nutella]

I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

Huh, why?

[nutella]

Who do you suspect now? Why has your view of Jack changed?

I believe Jack to be civ because he implied that he knew he would survive the lynch. I think someone brought up some discrepancies in his behavior leading up to it that might imply that that wasn't the case so I want to make sure to look through that timeframe again myself.

I mean, Sloonei seemed confident he would survive, which fits with Aconcagua or Cristobal Colon. Jack said "barring vote shenanigans" which would fit if he was protected by Sutter Buttes (but then would he say that openly if so?) but would also fit if he was Chimborazo and stole the double vote, which I could totally believe..... hmm actually now that I think about it that's probably more likely than my Sutter Buttes + random tie theory (though both theories rely on Sloonei being Aconcagua or Colon). Auugghh, now it feels like it's almost 50/50 mechanically whether Jack is town or scum, it's frustrating...

[Sloonei]

I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

Huh, why?

Your "I don't give a hoot" attitude, and the whole lynch survival on Day 1 thing. We don't know what Olympus Mons can do, but maybe they have something that would protect them in a situation like that.

[nutella]

I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

Huh, why?

Your "I don't give a hoot" attitude, and the whole lynch survival on Day 1 thing. We don't know what Olympus Mons can do, but maybe they have something that would protect them in a situation like that.

I had the "I don't give a hoot" attitude on day 1 mostly because I was lazy and felt like playing a low-effort fast-and-loose game, but by night 1 I started to play a lot more seriously and have been since then. I feel like I put in a normal amount of effort on day 2.

My survival was already explained, assuming you believe that it was a tie, which it was.

[Kylemii]

I thought Sutter Buttes was the town lynch stop mountain

._. I've been misinterpreting the discussion this whole time

[Sloonei]

I don't have a strategy for indie hunting, but if I was going to pick a player who seems like they could be playing an independent game, I'd choose nutella.

Huh, why?

Your "I don't give a hoot" attitude, and the whole lynch survival on Day 1 thing. We don't know what Olympus Mons can do, but maybe they have something that would protect them in a situation like that.

I had the "I don't give a hoot" attitude on day 1 mostly because I was lazy and felt like playing a low-effort fast-and-loose game, but by night 1 I started to play a lot more seriously and have been since then. I feel like I put in a normal amount of effort on day 2.

My survival was already explained, assuming you believe that it was a tie, which it was.

But there still has to have been a mechanism which forced the tie.
There are more readily available explanations than you being Olympus Mons, though.