Mountain Mafia [END]
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Anyone want to/able to weigh in on what I just said about colonialbob? He's leapfrogged everyone else to the top of my suspects list.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I'm also still waiting for someone to explain why lynching Jack was a good idea.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
What the hell?!??!
As my grandfather used to sing to the tune of "The Sound of Music," "The hiiiills are aliiiiive, and the mountains are dead!!"
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Hmm, okay, I buy this conclusion.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:55 am Options:
Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.
One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.
Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.
None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.
I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?
I also really like Sloonei's takedown of Bob. Good work.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
thanks. why'd you vote for jack?nutella wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:42 amHmm, okay, I buy this conclusion.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:55 am Options:
Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.
One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.
Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.
None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.
I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?
I also really like Sloonei's takedown of Bob. Good work.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
What if it wasn't tied?Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:21 am Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
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Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:33 pm Just how many days of "let's yeet them tomorrow" can a mafioso survive?
The answer: all of them, if you are a marmot.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Then it gets a little muddier and I need to look things over.Quin wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:56 amWhat if it wasn't tied?Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:21 am Read what he has said over the last lynch it will be clear I think. And I feel very confident that if the vote tally is actually tied that Sloonei is confirmed town in my mind. I won't be able to go do research until later tonight or tomorrow though. Guests over still, phone posting.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.
I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.
This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.
Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?
2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?
These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.
Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.
I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.
This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.
Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?
2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?
These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.
Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Here are just a few relevant posts, I feel like I am missing one or two from earlier too...
This means then that Sloonei is the one who should have died. In order for that to be true either the player who has a vote worth two voted for him, did not vote for either of them, or voted for Jack who had a vote less than it seems because of Sutter Buttes.
I am left with two options. I was wrong about Nutella being the role whose vote is worth two (definite possibility, need to look over what originally led me to believe this) or Jack is bad.
I just think that if a player preemptively implies that lynching them will not result in their death and then we have a lynch which results in no death, they were probably being truthful.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:50 amIt's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.
This means then that Sloonei is the one who should have died. In order for that to be true either the player who has a vote worth two voted for him, did not vote for either of them, or voted for Jack who had a vote less than it seems because of Sutter Buttes.
I am left with two options. I was wrong about Nutella being the role whose vote is worth two (definite possibility, need to look over what originally led me to believe this) or Jack is bad.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I'm not going to say I don't thrive on pressure anymore but...JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:50 pm DDL's response to my grievances is a moving one. The specificity of the parallel drawn here, based on what happened in Turf Wars, when I was similar to a replacement (joining the game at Day 5), and led an erroneous lynch on him inspires (hi Quin) me to reconsider. It's not especially important that I was wrong then, but it's important that DDL remembered this incident and recollected it with such earnestness here. I believe him when he says he wants to stop me from doing that to him again, and I also grant that my meta perception of him (a civilian who thrives on pressure) could be out of date. I don't think the two of us have really played many games together since that first meeting in Economics. I don't endorse his lynch.
I don't know where my meta stands anymore, frankly.
I just know it's different.
Also I'm not sure how that assesment of yours was accurate in the first place. That was my first game in the Syndicate. I was trying really hard to impress the new people and was excited about the way you and MP and Sloonei were playing. That game is an outlier in term of try-hardness for me.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Or the third, less likely option imo is Sloonei implied something untrue and got really lucky to have no death, meanwhile Jack survived a lynch and is most likely good, with a smaller chance of being Indy.
This seems the longest stretch to me.
This seems the longest stretch to me.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
Oh, come on! Even my joke got ninja'd? What is this, Naruto?
I'm out.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
Why are you acting like civs don't care about self-preservation either?Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:50 amIt's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
what is a legacy readJackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:10 am On the off chance of vote shenanigans...
Nutella, Sloonei, Jimmy, Bob, Quin good.
Epi bad. DDL maybe bad. Daisy maybe bad but only if Epi is.
Everyone else mostly null.
Do people use legacy reads? I feel like these get ignored.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I don't like how you are framing possible legit team analysis as a joke before the flip.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Depends. If nobody dies again, we could argue we are extending the game's real time length. I feel like this is pro-civ, since it gives mafia more chances to look bad and vice-versa. A good example is what happened to Nutella.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Tho if someone dies in the night this positive effect is probably countered/nulified.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Maybe he doesn't have control over it and is just putting his own survival as a priority.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:48 am In a universe with bad LC doing a fake lotta work, does he want to actually cause a mislynch or just spin his wheels?
Well i'l just describing how I play.
Tbh my read of LC at this point feels outdated and I already forgot why I suspected him. Might need to look at him again eventually.
Ok so I was being over-dramatic. Apologies.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:48 amThis part is antitown and doesn't feel DDLish. Scumhunting methods are for suckers? You're a better player than that.
So what's going on? I don't know that you're bad but I know you aren't acting like I expect DDL to act so I'm not sure exactly what to do with that.
My point however, is not that scumhunting is for suckers, if that most scumhunting "tells" are smoke and mirrors in order to justify what is basically gut. Well I'm not sure if this applies to you people, but it applies to me. In the past, I'd suspect someone for a single scummy post, then I'd ISO them, do a very detailed analysis, and conclude they were the source of all evil on Earth. Then I would tunnel vision on them for tens of posts, and be so vocal I'd get at least one unlucky civ and one oppotunist baddie to follow me. Boom, mislynch.
Over time I realized I was full of shit most of the time and those tells were inneffective.
Now, here is what I currently do. I don't avoid tells ompletely because otherwise what is the point of signing up for mafia. But I'm like, super paranoid. I follow my gut and try to rationalize a little, but I don't rationalize too hard because it will probably lead to confirmation bias. I keep my suspicions soft so I can jump out of them before it's too late, and I listen to others more. If everyone disagrees with me, I assume chances are I'm just wrong. I give more value to vote analysis and role analysis because those are closer to exact science and I'm good at that (I even copied Gman's technicolor vote thing in a recent game). And I also try to spot things nobody else noticed, because that helps too.
Also I've had this stance for quite some time, possibly before I met you, so I have to say you thinking it's "anti-DDL" probably means you haven't paid enough attention to me until now.
The difference is that in this game, I'm trying to be more unapologetic about changing votes and following my gut, and attacking people at random times for things that might be insignificant. Like, I'm trying to be less diplomatic. Because I feel like this is more like how I play mafia at NF, and it's working there lately.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Another possibility is Cristobal Colon just decided to stop last night's lynch. Because they are a dick.Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:55 am Options:
Sloonei or Jack are Aconcagua.
One of them are Chimborazo and got real lucky. And have great info on a Civ.
Matterhorn is a secret so maybe? Same for Olympus Mons.
None of the Little Mountains seem to have this ability.
I would say they are 100% not both bad. That role that checks twice with one true one false might be able to leverage this info?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:11 amI think it's very clear that Sloonei knew he wasn't going to die if he was lynched. I assumed that he was the one who was lynched but didn't die. I'd have to double check the vote tally though.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Problem is that in the Syndicate whenever I try to do my quick voting routine I get ambushed by 5 people demanding a well explained thesis on my vote. I'm not used to this.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I'm not voting for Sloonei or Nutella for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
It makes sense that Sloonei put a lot of emphasis on the fact he was not preserving himself. If he is a civ that doesn't make sense. If he is bad it doesn't either. But if he is an unlynchable player, that is another story.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Cristobal Colon (which I somehow missed in my tally of how no one got lynched) may have had to send in a lynch-stop without knowing which of the players in the "tie" were going to be lynched. It's conceivable that Civ Sloonei just saved baddie Jack, or vice-versa.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 6:56 am Ok it was Jack and Sloonei tied with 5. I have been operating under the assumption that Nutella has a vote worth two based upon events from Day 1. If this is true, then Jack would actually have had six to Sloonei's five. This would then mean that either Jack is the role that survives its first death, he could be one of the two secret roles which we don't know the powers for, or he was protected by the Sutter Buttes and had his vote decreased by one, making it a tie that swung to Sloonei who then did not die.
I find it difficult to get past Sloonei seeming to think it was a waste of time to lynch him. His phrasing read to me like a hint at what would happen. I'll pull some quotes for examples.
This lynch leaves me with a distinctly bad impression of Jack. But there are two questions I need to have answered because they could be hidden factors at play if I have misunderstood them.
Marmot: Two questions. 1. When you say "Aconcagua will survive the first attempt on its life." does this apply to either lynch or NK, whichever comes first? Or does this only apply to NK?
2. If a lynch save has been used how will it be written?
These answers can impact my view of this latest non death.
Now I am off to pull the relevant Sloonei statements... then going to sleep.
Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:48 am
Not at all. I've been super stressed out at work, basically. I'm doing four jobs: my current job, my old job, my lazy coworker's old job because management shoved her stuff onto me when she missed all her deadlines by like 200 days (not an exaggeration, literally over 200 days) and finally, on the day of my biggest deadline, my two jobs ago job. I asked my boss to talk to her boss and get me to only do 3 jobs. She did but forgot to mention he said no so I got shit for not doing the fourth job and then further shit for being "unprofessional" aka saying I don't have time to do other people's jobs on the eve of a big deadline. Then I worked three ten hour days and won't get overtime pay cause the company just changed the overtime policy regarding weeks with holidays. But whatever. I have a lot to be thankful for, career wise and otherwise. The four day weekend should mellow me out, too.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
This is information.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:08 amalso please elaborate on these reads.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:01 am Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w
(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.
If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amTo borrow someone else's words:colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:08 pmI don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm @Sloonei
@colonialbob
What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?
That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.
All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.
*votes kyle*Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I'm not a fan of the "no dumping" rules because you end up having cases like this where you assume things and the people you assume them about can't comment on the specifics but Nutella won't be able to help voting for me or not voting for me tomorrow, which is a comment on this anyway.Spacedaisy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:14 am Here are just a few relevant posts, I feel like I am missing one or two from earlier too...
I just think that if a player preemptively implies that lynching them will not result in their death and then we have a lynch which results in no death, they were probably being truthful.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:50 amIt's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.
This means then that Sloonei is the one who should have died. In order for that to be true either the player who has a vote worth two voted for him, did not vote for either of them, or voted for Jack who had a vote less than it seems because of Sutter Buttes.
I am left with two options. I was wrong about Nutella being the role whose vote is worth two (definite possibility, need to look over what originally led me to believe this) or Jack is bad.
So you have this game where people claim without claiming and its subjective how blatant too blatant is.
I prefer safeclaims like Mass Effect had to both have an open setup and also get rid of this conundrum.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amThis was where I started to doubt Bob in real time. This is a wonky line of questioning. "Well if Sloonei's right about Eloh, why isn't he voting for her?", as if Town Sloonei should be certain that his read on Elohcin was correct, and it is suspicious that Sloonbeard would not follow through on such a convincing self-made read. Bogus line of inquiry. He's voting for me because I'm considering voting for Elohcin, then turning around to criticize me for not voting Elohcin.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:30 amSo then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:17 am Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei
Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.
Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
That's not what I was acting like.Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:40 amWhy are you acting like civs don't care about self-preservation either?Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 1:50 amIt's not wifom. I just don't have any reason to care about self-preservation in the poll.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I had, until I felt like you did the exact same thing Day 2 (which is more of a ping for me because there's more info). That's also why I added my meta comment - maybe this is normal town behavior for you and I just don't recognize it. I've seen behavior like this often be scummy but maybe that's a function of where I've played.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:59 amI see bob did give more of an explanation for this.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:13 amThat post felt like you were inviting somebody to make a case against Eloh so you could better justify putting your vote back without having to push the case yourself. It's in the same vein as that Epi post I took issue with D1.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:02 amI forgot about this post. I dont get what you are saying, bob. I'm looking for somebody else to give me a reason to vote for Eloh? What's passive? I'm confused.colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:27 pmSorry, you're right, your vote swapped to Sprityo about 3 hours before that sequence (your last post prior to that sequence, actually). But I still don't like the justification of your vote, and the second bit seems too passive to me. Like you want somebody else to give you cover for swapping back and saving youraelf.Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:23 pmimmediately? My vote has been off of Eloh for like 6 hours. I specifically wanted Epi's thoughts on my specific case against Elohcin. He shot it down. But she's still a suspect. I have no reason to remove her from the pool.colonialbob wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:21 pm I don't like this sequence.
Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.
(That's both the benefit and drawback of playing with people you don't know... you may notice behaviors/tells those familiar with them may not, but you also may misinterpret things others have learned already.)
Nope. I want people to talk about Elohcin, as well as all the other suspects I name. That's why I name them, and it's why I might be accused of casting weak reads and being soft. Because, especially early in games, I'm more interested in gauging reaction than I am presenting a formal case. Once I have a solid read I'll put it in the thread, but it takes time to reach that point. I invite anyone and everyone to bring reasons to vote for Elohcin to the table. That's how the game works. I wasn't trying to weasel my way into a vote for her or anything like that.
I also guess that my "Epi behavior from Day 1" was that fence-sitting comment you made wayyyy back in the beginning of time. I completely disregarded that as a serious suspicion because it was so early and you seemed to have abandoned it and come around to read me as town.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] , care to answer?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:11 amMaybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:08 amalso please elaborate on these reads.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:01 am Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w
(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]
[mention]Jackofhearts2005[/mention] NightblueDragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:59 am My point however, is not that scumhunting is for suckers, if that most scumhunting "tells" are smoke and mirrors in order to justify what is basically gut. Well I'm not sure if this applies to you people, but it applies to me. In the past, I'd suspect someone for a single scummy post, then I'd ISO them, do a very detailed analysis, and conclude they were the source of all evil on Earth. Then I would tunnel vision on them for tens of posts, and be so vocal I'd get at least one unlucky civ and one oppotunist baddie to follow me. Boom, mislynch.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
But you provide the "devil's advocate justifications" in the first place. My point is that this post presents options that either one of Epi or LC could be bad, but you did not commit to either one at ths time. You left both options open to yourself for the down the road.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:19 am Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.
If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amTo borrow someone else's words:colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:08 pmI don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm @Sloonei
@colonialbob
What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?
That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.
All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.
*votes kyle*Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
But you say this did bother you. Why?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:28 amThat question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amThis was where I started to doubt Bob in real time. This is a wonky line of questioning. "Well if Sloonei's right about Eloh, why isn't he voting for her?", as if Town Sloonei should be certain that his read on Elohcin was correct, and it is suspicious that Sloonbeard would not follow through on such a convincing self-made read. Bogus line of inquiry. He's voting for me because I'm considering voting for Elohcin, then turning around to criticize me for not voting Elohcin.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:30 amSo then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:17 am Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei
Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.
Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
Yeah, it was like less than halfway through Day 1. I'm not ruling out somebody as a suspect that early - something we have in common, no? But I didn't like the current case. And I think it was clear over the rest of my D1 posting where my feelings on those two ended up falling.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:41 amBut you provide the "devil's advocate justifications" in the first place. My point is that this post presents options that either one of Epi or LC could be bad, but you did not commit to either one at ths time. You left both options open to yourself for the down the road.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:19 am Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.
If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amTo borrow someone else's words:colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:08 pmI don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm @Sloonei
@colonialbob
What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?
That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.
All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.
*votes kyle*Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
Uh hey, I am thankful for all of you and for the fact that no one is dying this game.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
It was clear. But I didn't buy your reason for it.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:48 amYeah, it was like less than halfway through Day 1. I'm not ruling out somebody as a suspect that early - something we have in common, no? But I didn't like the current case. And I think it was clear over the rest of my D1 posting where my feelings on those two ended up falling.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:41 amBut you provide the "devil's advocate justifications" in the first place. My point is that this post presents options that either one of Epi or LC could be bad, but you did not commit to either one at ths time. You left both options open to yourself for the down the road.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:19 am Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.
If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amTo borrow someone else's words:colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:08 pmI don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm @Sloonei
@colonialbob
What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?
That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.
All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.
*votes kyle*Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I've been townreading you all game. You didn't jump on me when it was easy so you look even more town. I'm 10 pages behind at the time so I don't know what the case on you or me is.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:36 amJackofhearts2005 , care to answer?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:11 amMaybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:08 amalso please elaborate on these reads.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:01 am Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w
(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)
The only case I actually see is Jimmy's case on Sprityo, who was a null at the time. And I have a lot of town reads so eliminating some nulls isn't a terrible idea even without the case.
Sprityo has like 3 votes. Sloonei has 6 counting mine. I have 5. I switch to Sprityo, that's 5-5-4, pretty dang close to a much better lynch than either Havk or Sloonei.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 1]
K.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:50 amIt was clear. But I didn't buy your reason for it.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:48 amYeah, it was like less than halfway through Day 1. I'm not ruling out somebody as a suspect that early - something we have in common, no? But I didn't like the current case. And I think it was clear over the rest of my D1 posting where my feelings on those two ended up falling.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:41 amBut you provide the "devil's advocate justifications" in the first place. My point is that this post presents options that either one of Epi or LC could be bad, but you did not commit to either one at ths time. You left both options open to yourself for the down the road.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:19 am Responding to the bits I want to respond to individually for readability.
If you're reading carefully, those qualifications weren't on *my* thoughts, but my devil's advocate justification of the Epi pressure. I didn't like the buddying accusation, said the only bit about it I could buy was the fact that Mesk and I are new to the Syndicate players who maybe could fall for buddying, but that even that was a pretty weak reason to buy the case. Basically, even the best version of the case against Epi I didn't love.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:53 amTo borrow someone else's words:colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:08 pmI don't love it. He pretty clearly misinterpreted the "3 civs" thing, per your previous statement. Whether that's on purpose or just as a defense, who knows.Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm @Sloonei
@colonialbob
What do you think of Epi's vote for LC?
That said, I think LC's take against Epi was pretty weak. It's Day 1, saying you won't vote for somebody today is a viable way of narrowing the lynch pool as a way of getting into the game. He did pick two new (to the Syndicate) players, so maybe he's a scum hoping a new player latches on to it? Idk, seems weak.
All that said though I'm not interested in narrowing the focus just to the two of them just yet. I actually like Sloonei's line of questioning - let's hear actual thoughts Kyle.
*votes kyle*Jack asks cbob and I to weigh in on Epi vs. LC, part 9000 and bob just waffles around, qualifying both his points with some variation of a shrug. Then he piggybacked on my questioning of kyle, which is, like, an easy thing to do.colonialbob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:44 am Posts that appear to say something while not actually saying anything
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 2]
I've been townreading you all game. You didn't jump on me when it was easy so you look even more town. I'm 10 pages behind at the time so I don't know what the case on you or me is.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:36 amJackofhearts2005 , care to answer?colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:11 amMaybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:08 amalso please elaborate on these reads.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:01 am Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w
(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)
The only case I actually see is Jimmy's case on Sprityo, who was a null at the time. And I have a lot of town reads so eliminating some nulls isn't a terrible idea even without the case.
Sprityo has like 3 votes. Sloonei has 6 counting mine. I have 5. I switch to Sprityo, that's 5-5-4, pretty dang close to a much better lynch than either *Jack* or Sloonei.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 1]
I still carry the guilt of Nightblue with me.colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:37 amJackofhearts2005 NightblueDragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:59 am My point however, is not that scumhunting is for suckers, if that most scumhunting "tells" are smoke and mirrors in order to justify what is basically gut. Well I'm not sure if this applies to you people, but it applies to me. In the past, I'd suspect someone for a single scummy post, then I'd ISO them, do a very detailed analysis, and conclude they were the source of all evil on Earth. Then I would tunnel vision on them for tens of posts, and be so vocal I'd get at least one unlucky civ and one oppotunist baddie to follow me. Boom, mislynch.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [NIGHT 2]
I'm still trying to work through all the implications of the tie and the no lynch. Like, Jack could've been a little mountain protected by the Buttes, or confident of the Everest double vote, or Daisy is right about you, etc. I promise I'll come back with fully formed thoughts on this in a bit.
I no longer thing w/w is a strong possibility though.