Mountain Mafia [END]

[Sloonei]

I don't like this sequence.

Sloonei

I don't feel you are genuine, and I think your go at Eloh was a try to score an easy lynch that people would find agreeable even if the result was no good.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I don't want to be on Eloh come day end. It could go on Sloonei.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

I hate this. He acts like Sloonei's contradicted himself somewhere in that voting period. Also, even though he seems likely to vote either Sloonei or Jack, he barely weighs in his thoughts on Jack at all on Day 2 to decide which lynch is best. Claims Jack and Sloonei are likely w/w later though.

This was where the suspicion was born. Epi and Eloh were already on me, and then Bob seized onto this like it was damning evidence and didn't let go for the rest of the phase.
colonialbob, would you be able to take us back to this moment and walk us through what was going on in your mind?

You voted for a player to get a different player's reaction to them, then moved your vote while saying you could go back. To me that seemed like tacitly inviting somebody to 'convince' you back onto Eloh. As scum it lets you throw a name out there and get some townie focus on it while not really looking like the person who led a mislynch if it goes somewhere. I believe I explained this previously.

You did, but this conversation is happening right now and I like things to be fresh and present for everyone involved.
what do you have to say about Quin's argument that your justification "changed" rather than "evolved" after I corrected a mistaken observation you made?

[Epignosis]

no, I am voting sig because I think one of sig/INH is bad. Also because I think Quin and Bob are good. also, I may be a softie, but my reasons are genuine.

I'd rather have a 50-50 shot at lynching scum than what I perceive as a 2 townie bandwagons at this point.

One of sig or INH may be bad- but you are guessing.

I gave solid evidence why I don't think sig or INH is bad. Why haven't you considered that?

[dunya]

no, I am voting sig because I think one of sig/INH is bad. Also because I think Quin and Bob are good. also, I may be a softie, but my reasons are genuine.

I'd rather have a 50-50 shot at lynching scum than what I perceive as a 2 townie bandwagons at this point.

One of sig or INH may be bad- but you are guessing.

I gave solid evidence why I don't think sig or INH is bad. Why haven't you considered that?

"solid" evidence.

link pls.

[Epignosis]

There are four votes on sig right now even though 3J wanted him dead.

If you are a civilian voting sig, for shame.

Even as Long Con planted his lazy ass vote on sig without realizing I ended up voting Quin.

Get your fucking heads out of your asses. READ A BOOK.

[dunya]

adj Solid evidence or information is reliable because it is based on facts.

Having solid evidence, based on actual facts and not interpretations of information, means you are saying with 100% certainty you can't be wrong.

[dunya]

Why can't INH be scum?

[Epignosis]

no, I am voting sig because I think one of sig/INH is bad. Also because I think Quin and Bob are good. also, I may be a softie, but my reasons are genuine.

I'd rather have a 50-50 shot at lynching scum than what I perceive as a 2 townie bandwagons at this point.

One of sig or INH may be bad- but you are guessing.

I gave solid evidence why I don't think sig or INH is bad. Why haven't you considered that?

"solid" evidence.

link pls.

Really? You didn't read it? Okay.

Are we talking about the same post here?

Actually no. No we are not. Epi's later post in which he voted Quin is about Sig. You should read it.

It's the same post, he just analyses what JJJ said about sig for a bit, then votes Quin for going after sig?

Ah. I assumed it wasn't the same post because you cut the end off.

@Epignosis We're stupid. Come in here and clarify your read of Quin and your read of Sig.

It isn't complicated.

What LC colored as red and perceived as "anti-sig" remarks really aren't. They are my running commentary on someone who is clearly not at all mindful of what he is saying, presumably because he lacks the time to be as much.

It is easy to dig into someone for inconsistencies and hypocritical remarks. It is harder to point them all out and walk away from it an overall positive view of the person's role.

sig's posts are wildly inconsistent, maintain no logic that I can follow, and don't really do anything to help the civilians. On top of it all, he never once voted. Is sig bad?

Always a possibility. What I'm seeing, however, is entirely consistent with someone who hasn't been around and probably isn't looking to play somebody.

Those are sig's posts though. It's easy to grill those.

JJJ's posts about sig are another matter entirely. JJJ remained open the entire time toward lynching sig should the climate of the thread swing that way (as it did swing toward Mesk, whom he had called good). JJJ's attitude- and I do not believe this to be a ruse- was to lynch low-posters. He even said low-posters were more likely to be bad because the thread was so active. This is horseshit.

I cannot see a single shred of evidence that JJJ and sig are teammates.

My investigation brought me to the interactions between JJJ and Quin. JJJ called Quin a civilian for bullshit reasons (i.e., I don't actually believe JJJ viewed Quin as a civilian), praised his opening contribution (which he misquoted), and on top of that, Quin has been needlessly antagonistic toward me and my effort to lynch JJJ. Even after JJJ was shown to be bad, Quin doubled down on his vague and pissy take that my thinking was poor.

JJJ was eager to lynch low-posters. Quin has taken up that mantle, even though the only confirmed mafia was the low-poster exterminator.

[Kylemii]

Alright, hey what's up, I just experienced every single human emotion all at once. How are you guys? Gotta go catch up.

[colonialbob]

I don't like this sequence.

Sloonei

I don't feel you are genuine, and I think your go at Eloh was a try to score an easy lynch that people would find agreeable even if the result was no good.

Nope. I wanted you to share your thoughts on her, then I moved off.

I don't want to be on Eloh come day end. It could go on Sloonei.

I advise against this.

I could go back to Eloh.

Voting Eloh because he wants Epi's thoughts, that's all? But then he's willing to vote there immediately after taking his vote off? Smells off.

I hate this. He acts like Sloonei's contradicted himself somewhere in that voting period. Also, even though he seems likely to vote either Sloonei or Jack, he barely weighs in his thoughts on Jack at all on Day 2 to decide which lynch is best. Claims Jack and Sloonei are likely w/w later though.

This was where the suspicion was born. Epi and Eloh were already on me, and then Bob seized onto this like it was damning evidence and didn't let go for the rest of the phase.
colonialbob, would you be able to take us back to this moment and walk us through what was going on in your mind?

You voted for a player to get a different player's reaction to them, then moved your vote while saying you could go back. To me that seemed like tacitly inviting somebody to 'convince' you back onto Eloh. As scum it lets you throw a name out there and get some townie focus on it while not really looking like the person who led a mislynch if it goes somewhere. I believe I explained this previously.

You did, but this conversation is happening right now and I like things to be fresh and present for everyone involved.
what do you have to say about Quin's argument that your justification "changed" rather than "evolved" after I corrected a mistaken observation you made?

Your post was 3 hours later but there also wasn't anything that happened in the thread in between. So "immediately" was an overstatement but the overall logic of my argument wasn't strongly affected.

[Epignosis]

Why can't INH be scum?

No one says he can't.

What is your interest in lynching INH, sig, et al?

You've defended Quin and colonialbob.

[dunya]

when was sig close to actually being lynched? If it happened, it was before my time in this game.

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

[Epignosis]

Voters: Quin, dunya, Long Con, colonialbob

These people are voting for sig. I don't trust three of them.

[Epignosis]

when was sig close to actually being lynched? If it happened, it was before my time in this game.

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

It's happening right now.

[Epignosis]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei

Spoiler: show

cbob thoughts incoming

Spoiler: show

Everyone should tell me what things in this thread you feel are most important/most warrant my attention and discussion among those I didn't just address.

I'd be interested in thoughts on me/jack/LC. Also the vote swapping from Epi to Nutella

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Jay asks colonialbob what his suspicions of Jack are. This whole exchange reads differently after you know Jay is scum. Is it distancing? I don't think so.

I noticed that Jay did that various times in this game to townies, because Jay was distracted and wanted to possibly build loose suspicions and cases he could expand and exaggerate on against townies (because if there's one thing Jay does good, it's bullshit). I can't see Scum Jay asking Scum Bob about building a case on Townie Jack.

First point against Bob being scum. First townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

This... is a darn good question.

Is it?

You said you'd be willing to answer questions.

I did. And I answered it too, but I'm not sure why it's of interest to bob.

Because it's a weird grouping of reads and I wanted to know why you did it.

I didn't like this. I didn't understand how it was a weird grouping of reads. I did not see what colonialbob was seeing. I don't think the post is indicative of his alignment, I just didn't like it because it adds no value and kind of appears out of the blue for no reason other than....he was online when it occured? I don't see Bob commenting on everyone's lists--he specifically chose that one.

I don't like to subtract townie points for ambiguity alone, but I feel I have to with this one because I didn't like the defence.

First point for Bob being scum. First scum point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

Cbob prods Jay again for no other reason that to prod Jay. I can't see scum cbob asking scum Jay to elaborate on something that scum Jay was clearning Sloonei for and scum cbob wanted to prod further and (possibly) incriminate.

Spoiler: show

Moreover I think the low-poster lynch strategy is ideal under these conditions.

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

same as above, he questions Jay on theories. At worst a scummy cbob would have just ignored Jay and tried to latch onto someone else. He was prodding hard as early as this, I don't see it as scum cbob with scum Jay.

Second point against Bob being scum. Second townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

more Sloonei prodding here, but I'm glad for this question because I like his reply. There's townie logic here. He is theorizing in a way that I think is townie-centric. I like the direction of his thoughts and suspicions. I feel they are genuine thoughts and not framing.

Third point against Bob being scum. Third townie point for Bob.


----

I'd like to say at this point it's frustrating reading cbob's ISO because it's a giant pile of fending off suspicion and accusations and answering sloonei. It reminds me a lot of what I endured in the Seinfeld game against JJJ (we were both town) and it limits a townie's efforts of actually being a contirbuting scum hunter because they have to spend all their time and energy explaining and reexplaining and making excuses. For the majority of of post Day 1 and Day 2, that's what cBob went though and it'll be really upset if it was all townie/townie action.

----

and then it's queue JJJ to break the Sloonei/cbob pattern

Spoiler: show

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

Trying to look at these encounters as w/w and reasoning how likely that is.

JJJ pops out again, and senses some frustration in scum partner cbob for all the heat he's getting and questions him more about Sloonei.

Is it possible? Sure. Do I personally find it likely Jay would do that, at that specific moment, creating this specific conversation itt on purpose? No, I don't.

I mean, Jay avoided several posts I made directed towards him. He could have easily avoided butting into a conversation where cBob was explaining himself to Sloonei in a heated exchange. The fact he didn't, meant he was in a way, enjoying this was happening imo.

Fourth point against Bob being scum. Fourth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

If I survive the night ( ) and find the time, I will ISO Cbob and determine how I feel -- he's sort of blended in for most of the game and has that problem of seeming active but still quite forgettable (I really didn't notice him/remember he was there until the end of day 2 with the sloonei stuff), so that's really not a good look, though I still think I generally got a slightly more civ vibe from him than from some others. I did like Sloonei's case, so I'm looking forward to seeing what else I find in his iso. I can be very guilty of confirmation bias when iso-ing though, so I'll try to be open-minded and look for both town tells and scum tells.

Feel like several players did. Gonna be honest (picking on your post here but several people have said this), I'm tired of the "active but forgettable" statement. How do I even defend against that? "Sorry, I'll try shouting more?" Picking out posts is fine (even if I very much disagree with several of Sloonei's criticisms) but vague accusation is vague.

Genuine frustration imho. I'll kind of answer this one for you cBob (because I've been there before), it's because you have to spend most of your game time feigning off accusations, over and over and over again, thus your actual new contributions become less than the defenses you are spending the bulk of your time making.

Fifth point against Bob being scum. Fifth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei, why didn't you vote for Jack when it became apparent a sprityo lynch was unlikely to happen?

I was not suspicious of Jack at the time. I was holding out hope that somebody would jump over to sprityo last second.

something witty about being suspicious of me not actually being open to changing my vote but then exhibiting the exact same behavior

Ok I'm done for the night. Will be pretty busy tomorrow so don't expect me until evening.

damn son. No townie points credited here, but I really hate it when someone accuses me of something because they want to find a scum in me, but end up doing that something late in the game themselves.

-------

at this point, cBob makes his GTH reads.

Let's look at things we know:

He named Jay good, Jay is bad.
He named Jack bad, while we aren't 100% certain there's a 90% chance Jack is good.
He named Daisy good, Daisy seems good.
He named Mesk bad, Mesk was good.
He named Dom bad, Dom was good.

Just leaving this out there. IMO, this is a townie GTH. Although I sent Jay a 5 min opinion on why I think GTH reads are useless, I'm going to play along and say this is a good thing. I won't credit him Townie points for it, because I have a principle to maintain and that is that I think GTH reads are useless

----------

Spoiler: show

At this stage i'll need to be convinced that colonialbob is town in order for me not to vote for him. Anyone got an argument?

There are too many suspicious players for Bob to be bad. Also, even when I disagree with him, I can kinda see where he's coming from.

Why the change?

I can't see scum cBob questioning someone who is finally trying to view him as town. I can see a townie cBob doing that. Indeed, a townie dunya often does that because even when people are town-reading you, you want to know why and how because everyone and anyone can be suspicious, even your supporters. This was on board questioning with his GTH reads -- he questions Jack, who he believes is more bad than good.

Sixth point against Bob being scum. Sixth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I didn't quite like this abrupt post, but then again, things were happening, Jay's name was popping up.

The next post made me feel a bit better:

Spoiler: show

I'm also bothered by the lack of votes in this day.

If Jay is bad, it would make sense for there to be some counter-wagon by now (maybe Wilgy is the counter wagon?). And I don't like how everyone who is voting for Jay is someone I'm currently townreading (well there is Jack, but I like current Jack more than Day 1 Jack so i'm still on the fence about him). Maybe mafia is just watching from afar, since the civs are doing their dirty work for them. So they don't need to expose themselves, by making bussing too obvious or risking discussion going against them.

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

He was the first person to mention the bussing scenario. I like it. I feel it was authentic townie. I don't award people the same level of townie points who made the same observation after him.

Seventh point against Bob being scum. Seventh townie point for Bob.

-------

Next is the Jay lynching episode. There are way too many posts to quote, but post JJJ flip, is definitely Townie cBob making analysis on voting pattern. I realize a lot of people can argue this is all possible bussing, so I won't award any townie points but I feel it was a townie effort for the whole.

-------

I have to stop here for now.

I want to share what I have this far in. I just have way too much school work, sorry, guys. I'll try to finish cBob, but I think you get the gist of my read on him.

Thanks. I share your hesitation regarding those Jay/Bob dialogues earlier in the game. They've been my main hangup. But what keeps me from turning Bob into a town read as a result of them is the person on the other side of those dialogues: Jay. I expect him to have conversations like that with his teammates indiscriminately when he's bad. He knows what associations (or lack thereof) townies are looking for when they go hunting. And, while I'm not tremendously familiar with Bob as an individual, I have spent some time with other HCRealms players (Jack and Malakim are two others here in this game with us), and I see no reason to believe that an intricate strategy like this would be beyond the grasp of one of their players. Bob seems to know how to handle himself generally within the game of Mafia.

I also give him no credit for potentially being the first to publicly acknowledge that Jay was a prime bus candidate on Day 4. I don't know whether that distinction is truly his or not, but it is something that was obvious, I think, and one of his teammates surely would have been clued into this even more than a townie.

I'm deep in the tunnel. I've never experienced a suspicion like this one before. Usually when I make this much noise about a player I eventually change my mind or one of us ends up dead. I've been screaming about Bob for a week now and we're both still here. I'm not sure I can turn off this read, and I'm not sure I want to. I firmly believe he's not a big mountain.

[dunya]

Why can't INH be scum?

No one says he can't.

What is your interest in lynching INH, sig, et al?

You've defended Quin and colonialbob.

You answered your own question. I think Quin and cBob are town. I believe INH or sig are scum.

I take everything Jay said in way of framing "low posters" with a grain of salt because there were more Townie inactives than scum inactives. I don't recall sig ever being close to being lynched. You're exaggerating what power and effect Jay had over driving a sig lynch.

[Kylemii]

I leave you punks alone for 2 hours and now we've got a 3 way tie :\

[colonialbob]

Blah. I'm waffling again. Epi is convincing and he's had pretty good instincts so far. But unfortunately I'm going to bed so I've got to make up my mind.

quin

Final answer.

[mention]dunya[/mention] I'd look into quin, DDL, and Wilgy (who's oddly gotten a total pass the last couple of days)

[dunya]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

[nutella]

[mention]Epignosis[/mention] if you switch back to Quin he'll be in the lead over sig.

still, hey [mention]Long Con[/mention] you could join us you know. remember last time I asked you to join me? yeah, it was a scum! :P

[nutella]

oh interesting bob switched back. iiiinteresting

[Epignosis]

Why can't INH be scum?

No one says he can't.

What is your interest in lynching INH, sig, et al?

You've defended Quin and colonialbob.

You answered your own question. I think Quin and cBob are town. I believe INH or sig are scum.

I take everything Jay said in way of framing "low posters" with a grain of salt because there were more Townie inactives than scum inactives. I don't recall sig ever being close to being lynched. You're exaggerating what power and effect Jay had over driving a sig lynch.

JJJ never had any power to drive a sig lynch. I'm not saying that.

I'm saying his pathway to win was to lynch low-posters.

Mesk got lynched for no reason, didn't she?

Explain to me why YOU think sign and INH are both bad. I want to hear this.

[Sloonei]

I leave you punks alone for 2 hours and now we've got a 3 way tie :\

break the tie with a vote for colonialbob

okay that won't break it, but vote for him anyway.

[Sloonei]

oh interesting bob switched back. iiiinteresting

what's interesting?

[Epignosis]

I leave you punks alone for 2 hours and now we've got a 3 way tie :\

Ties are okay things in this setup.

[nutella]

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

[dunya]

@Sloonei

Spoiler: show

cbob thoughts incoming

Spoiler: show

Everyone should tell me what things in this thread you feel are most important/most warrant my attention and discussion among those I didn't just address.

I'd be interested in thoughts on me/jack/LC. Also the vote swapping from Epi to Nutella

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Jay asks colonialbob what his suspicions of Jack are. This whole exchange reads differently after you know Jay is scum. Is it distancing? I don't think so.

I noticed that Jay did that various times in this game to townies, because Jay was distracted and wanted to possibly build loose suspicions and cases he could expand and exaggerate on against townies (because if there's one thing Jay does good, it's bullshit). I can't see Scum Jay asking Scum Bob about building a case on Townie Jack.

First point against Bob being scum. First townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Is it?

You said you'd be willing to answer questions.

I did. And I answered it too, but I'm not sure why it's of interest to bob.

Because it's a weird grouping of reads and I wanted to know why you did it.

I didn't like this. I didn't understand how it was a weird grouping of reads. I did not see what colonialbob was seeing. I don't think the post is indicative of his alignment, I just didn't like it because it adds no value and kind of appears out of the blue for no reason other than....he was online when it occured? I don't see Bob commenting on everyone's lists--he specifically chose that one.

I don't like to subtract townie points for ambiguity alone, but I feel I have to with this one because I didn't like the defence.

First point for Bob being scum. First scum point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

Cbob prods Jay again for no other reason that to prod Jay. I can't see scum cbob asking scum Jay to elaborate on something that scum Jay was clearning Sloonei for and scum cbob wanted to prod further and (possibly) incriminate.

Spoiler: show

Moreover I think the low-poster lynch strategy is ideal under these conditions.

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

same as above, he questions Jay on theories. At worst a scummy cbob would have just ignored Jay and tried to latch onto someone else. He was prodding hard as early as this, I don't see it as scum cbob with scum Jay.

Second point against Bob being scum. Second townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

more Sloonei prodding here, but I'm glad for this question because I like his reply. There's townie logic here. He is theorizing in a way that I think is townie-centric. I like the direction of his thoughts and suspicions. I feel they are genuine thoughts and not framing.

Third point against Bob being scum. Third townie point for Bob.


----

I'd like to say at this point it's frustrating reading cbob's ISO because it's a giant pile of fending off suspicion and accusations and answering sloonei. It reminds me a lot of what I endured in the Seinfeld game against JJJ (we were both town) and it limits a townie's efforts of actually being a contirbuting scum hunter because they have to spend all their time and energy explaining and reexplaining and making excuses. For the majority of of post Day 1 and Day 2, that's what cBob went though and it'll be really upset if it was all townie/townie action.

----

and then it's queue JJJ to break the Sloonei/cbob pattern

Spoiler: show

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

Trying to look at these encounters as w/w and reasoning how likely that is.

JJJ pops out again, and senses some frustration in scum partner cbob for all the heat he's getting and questions him more about Sloonei.

Is it possible? Sure. Do I personally find it likely Jay would do that, at that specific moment, creating this specific conversation itt on purpose? No, I don't.

I mean, Jay avoided several posts I made directed towards him. He could have easily avoided butting into a conversation where cBob was explaining himself to Sloonei in a heated exchange. The fact he didn't, meant he was in a way, enjoying this was happening imo.

Fourth point against Bob being scum. Fourth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

If I survive the night ( ) and find the time, I will ISO Cbob and determine how I feel -- he's sort of blended in for most of the game and has that problem of seeming active but still quite forgettable (I really didn't notice him/remember he was there until the end of day 2 with the sloonei stuff), so that's really not a good look, though I still think I generally got a slightly more civ vibe from him than from some others. I did like Sloonei's case, so I'm looking forward to seeing what else I find in his iso. I can be very guilty of confirmation bias when iso-ing though, so I'll try to be open-minded and look for both town tells and scum tells.

Feel like several players did. Gonna be honest (picking on your post here but several people have said this), I'm tired of the "active but forgettable" statement. How do I even defend against that? "Sorry, I'll try shouting more?" Picking out posts is fine (even if I very much disagree with several of Sloonei's criticisms) but vague accusation is vague.

Genuine frustration imho. I'll kind of answer this one for you cBob (because I've been there before), it's because you have to spend most of your game time feigning off accusations, over and over and over again, thus your actual new contributions become less than the defenses you are spending the bulk of your time making.

Fifth point against Bob being scum. Fifth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei, why didn't you vote for Jack when it became apparent a sprityo lynch was unlikely to happen?

I was not suspicious of Jack at the time. I was holding out hope that somebody would jump over to sprityo last second.

something witty about being suspicious of me not actually being open to changing my vote but then exhibiting the exact same behavior

Ok I'm done for the night. Will be pretty busy tomorrow so don't expect me until evening.

damn son. No townie points credited here, but I really hate it when someone accuses me of something because they want to find a scum in me, but end up doing that something late in the game themselves.

-------

at this point, cBob makes his GTH reads.

Let's look at things we know:

He named Jay good, Jay is bad.
He named Jack bad, while we aren't 100% certain there's a 90% chance Jack is good.
He named Daisy good, Daisy seems good.
He named Mesk bad, Mesk was good.
He named Dom bad, Dom was good.

Just leaving this out there. IMO, this is a townie GTH. Although I sent Jay a 5 min opinion on why I think GTH reads are useless, I'm going to play along and say this is a good thing. I won't credit him Townie points for it, because I have a principle to maintain and that is that I think GTH reads are useless

----------

Spoiler: show

At this stage i'll need to be convinced that colonialbob is town in order for me not to vote for him. Anyone got an argument?

There are too many suspicious players for Bob to be bad. Also, even when I disagree with him, I can kinda see where he's coming from.

Why the change?

I can't see scum cBob questioning someone who is finally trying to view him as town. I can see a townie cBob doing that. Indeed, a townie dunya often does that because even when people are town-reading you, you want to know why and how because everyone and anyone can be suspicious, even your supporters. This was on board questioning with his GTH reads -- he questions Jack, who he believes is more bad than good.

Sixth point against Bob being scum. Sixth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I didn't quite like this abrupt post, but then again, things were happening, Jay's name was popping up.

The next post made me feel a bit better:

Spoiler: show

I'm also bothered by the lack of votes in this day.

If Jay is bad, it would make sense for there to be some counter-wagon by now (maybe Wilgy is the counter wagon?). And I don't like how everyone who is voting for Jay is someone I'm currently townreading (well there is Jack, but I like current Jack more than Day 1 Jack so i'm still on the fence about him). Maybe mafia is just watching from afar, since the civs are doing their dirty work for them. So they don't need to expose themselves, by making bussing too obvious or risking discussion going against them.

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

He was the first person to mention the bussing scenario. I like it. I feel it was authentic townie. I don't award people the same level of townie points who made the same observation after him.

Seventh point against Bob being scum. Seventh townie point for Bob.

-------

Next is the Jay lynching episode. There are way too many posts to quote, but post JJJ flip, is definitely Townie cBob making analysis on voting pattern. I realize a lot of people can argue this is all possible bussing, so I won't award any townie points but I feel it was a townie effort for the whole.

-------

I have to stop here for now.

I want to share what I have this far in. I just have way too much school work, sorry, guys. I'll try to finish cBob, but I think you get the gist of my read on him.

Thanks. I share your hesitation regarding those Jay/Bob dialogues earlier in the game. They've been my main hangup. But what keeps me from turning Bob into a town read as a result of them is the person on the other side of those dialogues: Jay. I expect him to have conversations like that with his teammates indiscriminately when he's bad. He knows what associations (or lack thereof) townies are looking for when they go hunting. And, while I'm not tremendously familiar with Bob as an individual, I have spent some time with other HCRealms players (Jack and Malakim are two others here in this game with us), and I see no reason to believe that an intricate strategy like this would be beyond the grasp of one of their players. Bob seems to know how to handle himself generally within the game of Mafia.

I also give him no credit for potentially being the first to publicly acknowledge that Jay was a prime bus candidate on Day 4. I don't know whether that distinction is truly his or not, but it is something that was obvious, I think, and one of his teammates surely would have been clued into this even more than a townie.

I'm deep in the tunnel. I've never experienced a suspicion like this one before. Usually when I make this much noise about a player I eventually change my mind or one of us ends up dead. I've been screaming about Bob for a week now and we're both still here. I'm not sure I can turn off this read, and I'm not sure I want to. I firmly believe he's not a big mountain.

You are certainly a bigger town read for me than cBob. I almost want to lynch him now so you can get your focus off him. I feel bad because I still think he's town, but I do understand Jay's capabilities of leaving a trail of crumbs for us to misinterpret as well... I don't know.

[Epignosis]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

I'm so tired of people telling me my shit is weak.

Mafia do their best to ensure any case against them is weak. Civilians have to say fuck that and get in there and take a chance.

I caught 3J while you wavered. All you have been doing lately is wavering. Now you want to lynch INH and sig when that's all JJJ wanted to do?

Dunya, you've lost any credibility with me you once had.

[Sloonei]

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

[dunya]

@Sloonei

Spoiler: show

cbob thoughts incoming

Spoiler: show

I'd be interested in thoughts on me/jack/LC. Also the vote swapping from Epi to Nutella

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Jay asks colonialbob what his suspicions of Jack are. This whole exchange reads differently after you know Jay is scum. Is it distancing? I don't think so.

I noticed that Jay did that various times in this game to townies, because Jay was distracted and wanted to possibly build loose suspicions and cases he could expand and exaggerate on against townies (because if there's one thing Jay does good, it's bullshit). I can't see Scum Jay asking Scum Bob about building a case on Townie Jack.

First point against Bob being scum. First townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

You said you'd be willing to answer questions.

I did. And I answered it too, but I'm not sure why it's of interest to bob.

Because it's a weird grouping of reads and I wanted to know why you did it.

I didn't like this. I didn't understand how it was a weird grouping of reads. I did not see what colonialbob was seeing. I don't think the post is indicative of his alignment, I just didn't like it because it adds no value and kind of appears out of the blue for no reason other than....he was online when it occured? I don't see Bob commenting on everyone's lists--he specifically chose that one.

I don't like to subtract townie points for ambiguity alone, but I feel I have to with this one because I didn't like the defence.

First point for Bob being scum. First scum point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

Cbob prods Jay again for no other reason that to prod Jay. I can't see scum cbob asking scum Jay to elaborate on something that scum Jay was clearning Sloonei for and scum cbob wanted to prod further and (possibly) incriminate.

Spoiler: show

Moreover I think the low-poster lynch strategy is ideal under these conditions.

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

same as above, he questions Jay on theories. At worst a scummy cbob would have just ignored Jay and tried to latch onto someone else. He was prodding hard as early as this, I don't see it as scum cbob with scum Jay.

Second point against Bob being scum. Second townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Interested to see this flip, I'm like 50/50 that Jack and Sloons are w/w

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

more Sloonei prodding here, but I'm glad for this question because I like his reply. There's townie logic here. He is theorizing in a way that I think is townie-centric. I like the direction of his thoughts and suspicions. I feel they are genuine thoughts and not framing.

Third point against Bob being scum. Third townie point for Bob.


----

I'd like to say at this point it's frustrating reading cbob's ISO because it's a giant pile of fending off suspicion and accusations and answering sloonei. It reminds me a lot of what I endured in the Seinfeld game against JJJ (we were both town) and it limits a townie's efforts of actually being a contirbuting scum hunter because they have to spend all their time and energy explaining and reexplaining and making excuses. For the majority of of post Day 1 and Day 2, that's what cBob went though and it'll be really upset if it was all townie/townie action.

----

and then it's queue JJJ to break the Sloonei/cbob pattern

Spoiler: show

That question was directed at JJJ because it was intended for JJJ. He was supporting your posting, so I wanted to understand why the part that bothered me didn't bother him. I wanted his thought process to help formulate a read on him, not as part of my feelings on you. I can certainly see why you interpreted this thay way, though, especially on ISO.

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

Trying to look at these encounters as w/w and reasoning how likely that is.

JJJ pops out again, and senses some frustration in scum partner cbob for all the heat he's getting and questions him more about Sloonei.

Is it possible? Sure. Do I personally find it likely Jay would do that, at that specific moment, creating this specific conversation itt on purpose? No, I don't.

I mean, Jay avoided several posts I made directed towards him. He could have easily avoided butting into a conversation where cBob was explaining himself to Sloonei in a heated exchange. The fact he didn't, meant he was in a way, enjoying this was happening imo.

Fourth point against Bob being scum. Fourth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

If I survive the night ( ) and find the time, I will ISO Cbob and determine how I feel -- he's sort of blended in for most of the game and has that problem of seeming active but still quite forgettable (I really didn't notice him/remember he was there until the end of day 2 with the sloonei stuff), so that's really not a good look, though I still think I generally got a slightly more civ vibe from him than from some others. I did like Sloonei's case, so I'm looking forward to seeing what else I find in his iso. I can be very guilty of confirmation bias when iso-ing though, so I'll try to be open-minded and look for both town tells and scum tells.

Feel like several players did. Gonna be honest (picking on your post here but several people have said this), I'm tired of the "active but forgettable" statement. How do I even defend against that? "Sorry, I'll try shouting more?" Picking out posts is fine (even if I very much disagree with several of Sloonei's criticisms) but vague accusation is vague.

Genuine frustration imho. I'll kind of answer this one for you cBob (because I've been there before), it's because you have to spend most of your game time feigning off accusations, over and over and over again, thus your actual new contributions become less than the defenses you are spending the bulk of your time making.

Fifth point against Bob being scum. Fifth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Sloonei, why didn't you vote for Jack when it became apparent a sprityo lynch was unlikely to happen?

I was not suspicious of Jack at the time. I was holding out hope that somebody would jump over to sprityo last second.

something witty about being suspicious of me not actually being open to changing my vote but then exhibiting the exact same behavior

Ok I'm done for the night. Will be pretty busy tomorrow so don't expect me until evening.

damn son. No townie points credited here, but I really hate it when someone accuses me of something because they want to find a scum in me, but end up doing that something late in the game themselves.

-------

at this point, cBob makes his GTH reads.

Let's look at things we know:

He named Jay good, Jay is bad.
He named Jack bad, while we aren't 100% certain there's a 90% chance Jack is good.
He named Daisy good, Daisy seems good.
He named Mesk bad, Mesk was good.
He named Dom bad, Dom was good.

Just leaving this out there. IMO, this is a townie GTH. Although I sent Jay a 5 min opinion on why I think GTH reads are useless, I'm going to play along and say this is a good thing. I won't credit him Townie points for it, because I have a principle to maintain and that is that I think GTH reads are useless

----------

Spoiler: show

At this stage i'll need to be convinced that colonialbob is town in order for me not to vote for him. Anyone got an argument?

There are too many suspicious players for Bob to be bad. Also, even when I disagree with him, I can kinda see where he's coming from.

Why the change?

I can't see scum cBob questioning someone who is finally trying to view him as town. I can see a townie cBob doing that. Indeed, a townie dunya often does that because even when people are town-reading you, you want to know why and how because everyone and anyone can be suspicious, even your supporters. This was on board questioning with his GTH reads -- he questions Jack, who he believes is more bad than good.

Sixth point against Bob being scum. Sixth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I didn't quite like this abrupt post, but then again, things were happening, Jay's name was popping up.

The next post made me feel a bit better:

Spoiler: show

I'm also bothered by the lack of votes in this day.

If Jay is bad, it would make sense for there to be some counter-wagon by now (maybe Wilgy is the counter wagon?). And I don't like how everyone who is voting for Jay is someone I'm currently townreading (well there is Jack, but I like current Jack more than Day 1 Jack so i'm still on the fence about him). Maybe mafia is just watching from afar, since the civs are doing their dirty work for them. So they don't need to expose themselves, by making bussing too obvious or risking discussion going against them.

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

He was the first person to mention the bussing scenario. I like it. I feel it was authentic townie. I don't award people the same level of townie points who made the same observation after him.

Seventh point against Bob being scum. Seventh townie point for Bob.

-------

Next is the Jay lynching episode. There are way too many posts to quote, but post JJJ flip, is definitely Townie cBob making analysis on voting pattern. I realize a lot of people can argue this is all possible bussing, so I won't award any townie points but I feel it was a townie effort for the whole.

-------

I have to stop here for now.

I want to share what I have this far in. I just have way too much school work, sorry, guys. I'll try to finish cBob, but I think you get the gist of my read on him.

Thanks. I share your hesitation regarding those Jay/Bob dialogues earlier in the game. They've been my main hangup. But what keeps me from turning Bob into a town read as a result of them is the person on the other side of those dialogues: Jay. I expect him to have conversations like that with his teammates indiscriminately when he's bad. He knows what associations (or lack thereof) townies are looking for when they go hunting. And, while I'm not tremendously familiar with Bob as an individual, I have spent some time with other HCRealms players (Jack and Malakim are two others here in this game with us), and I see no reason to believe that an intricate strategy like this would be beyond the grasp of one of their players. Bob seems to know how to handle himself generally within the game of Mafia.

I also give him no credit for potentially being the first to publicly acknowledge that Jay was a prime bus candidate on Day 4. I don't know whether that distinction is truly his or not, but it is something that was obvious, I think, and one of his teammates surely would have been clued into this even more than a townie.

I'm deep in the tunnel. I've never experienced a suspicion like this one before. Usually when I make this much noise about a player I eventually change my mind or one of us ends up dead. I've been screaming about Bob for a week now and we're both still here. I'm not sure I can turn off this read, and I'm not sure I want to. I firmly believe he's not a big mountain.

You are certainly a bigger town read for me than cBob. I almost want to lynch him now so you can get your focus off him. I feel bad because I still think he's town, but I do understand Jay's capabilities of leaving a trail of crumbs for us to misinterpret as well... I don't know.

I've moved to cBob. I was wrong about Jack. I think a cBob flip is better than a sig flip (INH...I'd be willing to lynch).

Sorry if you're town cBob. But I think sometimes townies have to be less stubborn and try another townie's beliefs.

[Epignosis]

@Epignosis if you switch back to Quin he'll be in the lead over sig.

still, hey @Long Con you could join us you know. remember last time I asked you to join me? yeah, it was a scum! :P

No. I trust Sloonei, and he has kept his foot on the gas regarding colonialbob. If he is bad and winning this game, it isn't on the back of a single lynch, and I want to give him a chance.

I am comfortable that you are voting Quin, however.

[dunya]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

I'm so tired of people telling me my shit is weak.

Mafia do their best to ensure any case against them is weak. Civilians have to say fuck that and get in there and take a chance.

I caught 3J while you wavered. All you have been doing lately is wavering. Now you want to lynch INH and sig when that's all JJJ wanted to do?

Dunya, you've lost any credibility with me you once had.

I really don't care at this point in time. You're very stubborn. I'll regain it soon enough.

[Epignosis]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

I'm so tired of people telling me my shit is weak.

Mafia do their best to ensure any case against them is weak. Civilians have to say fuck that and get in there and take a chance.

I caught 3J while you wavered. All you have been doing lately is wavering. Now you want to lynch INH and sig when that's all JJJ wanted to do?

Dunya, you've lost any credibility with me you once had.

I really don't care at this point in time. You're very stubborn. I'll regain it soon enough.

I'm stubborn and you are a pansy.

[Sloonei]

@Sloonei

Spoiler: show

cbob thoughts incoming

Spoiler: show

I actually was just looking at your ISO. The long exchange you had with Jack at least looked dissociative (if that wasn't a word before it is now) -- I don't think you look like tiny mountains together. That point has limited value at present with no flips but whatever it came to mind.

I am less perturbed by your early poop fling at Sloonei than I was with DDL given that yours came first and it didn't last. I suggested in my puke that I think Jack looks good, at least for the point I raised. Could you summarize your suspicion of him for me? I raised concerns with LC separately, mostly relating to his dealings with Epignosis.

Also I am not entirely clear on everything that transpired with regard to vote movement. I'll need some help on that before I can offer much insight, otherwise I'll see you after I check myself.

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Jay asks colonialbob what his suspicions of Jack are. This whole exchange reads differently after you know Jay is scum. Is it distancing? I don't think so.

I noticed that Jay did that various times in this game to townies, because Jay was distracted and wanted to possibly build loose suspicions and cases he could expand and exaggerate on against townies (because if there's one thing Jay does good, it's bullshit). I can't see Scum Jay asking Scum Bob about building a case on Townie Jack.

First point against Bob being scum. First townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

I did. And I answered it too, but I'm not sure why it's of interest to bob.

Because it's a weird grouping of reads and I wanted to know why you did it.

I didn't like this. I didn't understand how it was a weird grouping of reads. I did not see what colonialbob was seeing. I don't think the post is indicative of his alignment, I just didn't like it because it adds no value and kind of appears out of the blue for no reason other than....he was online when it occured? I don't see Bob commenting on everyone's lists--he specifically chose that one.

I don't like to subtract townie points for ambiguity alone, but I feel I have to with this one because I didn't like the defence.

First point for Bob being scum. First scum point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Elohcin's rainbow and dialogue with Sloonei

Sloonei's questions here were reasonable -- Elohcin voiced in vague terms that the high posters seem civ and that she'd be willing to vote for a low poster. The contents of the rainbow list don't align with that much. A change of heart is fine, but I don't know if that's even what happened in Eloh's head -- the progression is unclear. The names in the rainbow almost appear randomized. I'm surprised to see myself rated well given my own slow start, and I have no idea why Mesk is so high. I don't know why the low posters are split between yellow and orange. I don't know why the high posters Sloonei and Quin are orange. When given an opportunity to expand on these things, she just said "relax" and restated the general purpose of a rainbow list.

@Elohcin, you need to talk more about what's going on there.

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

Cbob prods Jay again for no other reason that to prod Jay. I can't see scum cbob asking scum Jay to elaborate on something that scum Jay was clearning Sloonei for and scum cbob wanted to prod further and (possibly) incriminate.

Spoiler: show

Moreover I think the low-poster lynch strategy is ideal under these conditions.

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

same as above, he questions Jay on theories. At worst a scummy cbob would have just ignored Jay and tried to latch onto someone else. He was prodding hard as early as this, I don't see it as scum cbob with scum Jay.

Second point against Bob being scum. Second townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

also please elaborate on these reads.

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

more Sloonei prodding here, but I'm glad for this question because I like his reply. There's townie logic here. He is theorizing in a way that I think is townie-centric. I like the direction of his thoughts and suspicions. I feel they are genuine thoughts and not framing.

Third point against Bob being scum. Third townie point for Bob.


----

I'd like to say at this point it's frustrating reading cbob's ISO because it's a giant pile of fending off suspicion and accusations and answering sloonei. It reminds me a lot of what I endured in the Seinfeld game against JJJ (we were both town) and it limits a townie's efforts of actually being a contirbuting scum hunter because they have to spend all their time and energy explaining and reexplaining and making excuses. For the majority of of post Day 1 and Day 2, that's what cBob went though and it'll be really upset if it was all townie/townie action.

----

and then it's queue JJJ to break the Sloonei/cbob pattern

Spoiler: show

Can you describe the mafia mindset you attributed to Sloonei at the time regarding his vote move off of Elohcin? What about that maneuver made you suspicious of him?

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

Trying to look at these encounters as w/w and reasoning how likely that is.

JJJ pops out again, and senses some frustration in scum partner cbob for all the heat he's getting and questions him more about Sloonei.

Is it possible? Sure. Do I personally find it likely Jay would do that, at that specific moment, creating this specific conversation itt on purpose? No, I don't.

I mean, Jay avoided several posts I made directed towards him. He could have easily avoided butting into a conversation where cBob was explaining himself to Sloonei in a heated exchange. The fact he didn't, meant he was in a way, enjoying this was happening imo.

Fourth point against Bob being scum. Fourth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

If I survive the night ( ) and find the time, I will ISO Cbob and determine how I feel -- he's sort of blended in for most of the game and has that problem of seeming active but still quite forgettable (I really didn't notice him/remember he was there until the end of day 2 with the sloonei stuff), so that's really not a good look, though I still think I generally got a slightly more civ vibe from him than from some others. I did like Sloonei's case, so I'm looking forward to seeing what else I find in his iso. I can be very guilty of confirmation bias when iso-ing though, so I'll try to be open-minded and look for both town tells and scum tells.

Feel like several players did. Gonna be honest (picking on your post here but several people have said this), I'm tired of the "active but forgettable" statement. How do I even defend against that? "Sorry, I'll try shouting more?" Picking out posts is fine (even if I very much disagree with several of Sloonei's criticisms) but vague accusation is vague.

Genuine frustration imho. I'll kind of answer this one for you cBob (because I've been there before), it's because you have to spend most of your game time feigning off accusations, over and over and over again, thus your actual new contributions become less than the defenses you are spending the bulk of your time making.

Fifth point against Bob being scum. Fifth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

I was not suspicious of Jack at the time. I was holding out hope that somebody would jump over to sprityo last second.

something witty about being suspicious of me not actually being open to changing my vote but then exhibiting the exact same behavior

Ok I'm done for the night. Will be pretty busy tomorrow so don't expect me until evening.

damn son. No townie points credited here, but I really hate it when someone accuses me of something because they want to find a scum in me, but end up doing that something late in the game themselves.

-------

at this point, cBob makes his GTH reads.

Let's look at things we know:

He named Jay good, Jay is bad.
He named Jack bad, while we aren't 100% certain there's a 90% chance Jack is good.
He named Daisy good, Daisy seems good.
He named Mesk bad, Mesk was good.
He named Dom bad, Dom was good.

Just leaving this out there. IMO, this is a townie GTH. Although I sent Jay a 5 min opinion on why I think GTH reads are useless, I'm going to play along and say this is a good thing. I won't credit him Townie points for it, because I have a principle to maintain and that is that I think GTH reads are useless

----------

Spoiler: show

There are too many suspicious players for Bob to be bad. Also, even when I disagree with him, I can kinda see where he's coming from.

Why the change?

I can't see scum cBob questioning someone who is finally trying to view him as town. I can see a townie cBob doing that. Indeed, a townie dunya often does that because even when people are town-reading you, you want to know why and how because everyone and anyone can be suspicious, even your supporters. This was on board questioning with his GTH reads -- he questions Jack, who he believes is more bad than good.

Sixth point against Bob being scum. Sixth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I didn't quite like this abrupt post, but then again, things were happening, Jay's name was popping up.

The next post made me feel a bit better:

Spoiler: show

I'm also bothered by the lack of votes in this day.

If Jay is bad, it would make sense for there to be some counter-wagon by now (maybe Wilgy is the counter wagon?). And I don't like how everyone who is voting for Jay is someone I'm currently townreading (well there is Jack, but I like current Jack more than Day 1 Jack so i'm still on the fence about him). Maybe mafia is just watching from afar, since the civs are doing their dirty work for them. So they don't need to expose themselves, by making bussing too obvious or risking discussion going against them.

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

He was the first person to mention the bussing scenario. I like it. I feel it was authentic townie. I don't award people the same level of townie points who made the same observation after him.

Seventh point against Bob being scum. Seventh townie point for Bob.

-------

Next is the Jay lynching episode. There are way too many posts to quote, but post JJJ flip, is definitely Townie cBob making analysis on voting pattern. I realize a lot of people can argue this is all possible bussing, so I won't award any townie points but I feel it was a townie effort for the whole.

-------

I have to stop here for now.

I want to share what I have this far in. I just have way too much school work, sorry, guys. I'll try to finish cBob, but I think you get the gist of my read on him.

Thanks. I share your hesitation regarding those Jay/Bob dialogues earlier in the game. They've been my main hangup. But what keeps me from turning Bob into a town read as a result of them is the person on the other side of those dialogues: Jay. I expect him to have conversations like that with his teammates indiscriminately when he's bad. He knows what associations (or lack thereof) townies are looking for when they go hunting. And, while I'm not tremendously familiar with Bob as an individual, I have spent some time with other HCRealms players (Jack and Malakim are two others here in this game with us), and I see no reason to believe that an intricate strategy like this would be beyond the grasp of one of their players. Bob seems to know how to handle himself generally within the game of Mafia.

I also give him no credit for potentially being the first to publicly acknowledge that Jay was a prime bus candidate on Day 4. I don't know whether that distinction is truly his or not, but it is something that was obvious, I think, and one of his teammates surely would have been clued into this even more than a townie.

I'm deep in the tunnel. I've never experienced a suspicion like this one before. Usually when I make this much noise about a player I eventually change my mind or one of us ends up dead. I've been screaming about Bob for a week now and we're both still here. I'm not sure I can turn off this read, and I'm not sure I want to. I firmly believe he's not a big mountain.

You are certainly a bigger town read for me than cBob. I almost want to lynch him now so you can get your focus off him. I feel bad because I still think he's town, but I do understand Jay's capabilities of leaving a trail of crumbs for us to misinterpret as well... I don't know.

I've moved to cBob. I was wrong about Jack. I think a cBob flip is better than a sig flip (INH...I'd be willing to lynch).

Sorry if you're town cBob. But I think sometimes townies have to be less stubborn and try another townie's beliefs.

why exactly are you voting for him?

[dunya]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

I'm so tired of people telling me my shit is weak.

Mafia do their best to ensure any case against them is weak. Civilians have to say fuck that and get in there and take a chance.

I caught 3J while you wavered. All you have been doing lately is wavering. Now you want to lynch INH and sig when that's all JJJ wanted to do?

Dunya, you've lost any credibility with me you once had.

I really don't care at this point in time. You're very stubborn. I'll regain it soon enough.

I'm stubborn and you are a pansy.

pansy
ˈpanzi/Submit
noun
noun: pansy; plural noun: pansies
1.
a cultivated variety of viola with brightly coloured flowers.

[Sloonei]

@Epignosis if you switch back to Quin he'll be in the lead over sig.

still, hey @Long Con you could join us you know. remember last time I asked you to join me? yeah, it was a scum! :P

No. I trust Sloonei, and he has kept his foot on the gas regarding colonialbob. If he is bad and winning this game, it isn't on the back of a single lynch, and I want to give him a chance.

I am comfortable that you are voting Quin, however.

I take it my leadership has improved.

[nutella]

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

[Sloonei]

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

care to explain?

[Epignosis]

Also I saw that, but you said you had solid evidence that neither sig nor INH can be scum. What's the evidence on INH?

Do you bother to read my posts?

well, most of them today were weak sauce like tunneling a player who says something against you that you don't like. You build this huge case against him and make him admit he's bad at scum hunting, etc. which imo is demeaning. but that's just me. so I skip those.

I'm so tired of people telling me my shit is weak.

Mafia do their best to ensure any case against them is weak. Civilians have to say fuck that and get in there and take a chance.

I caught 3J while you wavered. All you have been doing lately is wavering. Now you want to lynch INH and sig when that's all JJJ wanted to do?

Dunya, you've lost any credibility with me you once had.

I really don't care at this point in time. You're very stubborn. I'll regain it soon enough.

I'm stubborn and you are a pansy.

pansy
ˈpanzi/Submit
noun
noun: pansy; plural noun: pansies
1.
a cultivated variety of viola with brightly coloured flowers.

I really, really fucking like you. Do you know that?

[Sloonei]

I feel like a black hole just sucking other people's votes into my vortex.

[Epignosis]

I feel like a black hole just sucking other people's votes into my vortex.

Today I believe you, nutella, dunya, and speedchuck are good. I'm fine with either outcome right now.

[dunya]

@Sloonei

Spoiler: show

cbob thoughts incoming

Spoiler: show

It's kinda meta. His posting early on reminded me of his play in the HCRealms/Syndicate crossover, where he kept going on meta tangents and shunting the thread away from actual reads. He was mafia that game, I called him out D1 and got NKed for it. But he's provided some reads since then, and while I don't entirely agree with him on say LC/Epi, his posts feel genuine enough that I'm fine with him now.

Jay asks colonialbob what his suspicions of Jack are. This whole exchange reads differently after you know Jay is scum. Is it distancing? I don't think so.

I noticed that Jay did that various times in this game to townies, because Jay was distracted and wanted to possibly build loose suspicions and cases he could expand and exaggerate on against townies (because if there's one thing Jay does good, it's bullshit). I can't see Scum Jay asking Scum Bob about building a case on Townie Jack.

First point against Bob being scum. First townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Because it's a weird grouping of reads and I wanted to know why you did it.

I didn't like this. I didn't understand how it was a weird grouping of reads. I did not see what colonialbob was seeing. I don't think the post is indicative of his alignment, I just didn't like it because it adds no value and kind of appears out of the blue for no reason other than....he was online when it occured? I don't see Bob commenting on everyone's lists--he specifically chose that one.

I don't like to subtract townie points for ambiguity alone, but I feel I have to with this one because I didn't like the defence.

First point for Bob being scum. First scum point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

So then if he was right on all that why did he drop the vote when Epi said the read/case was bad? What made him swap his vote?

Cbob prods Jay again for no other reason that to prod Jay. I can't see scum cbob asking scum Jay to elaborate on something that scum Jay was clearning Sloonei for and scum cbob wanted to prod further and (possibly) incriminate.

Spoiler: show

Explain please. I'm also curious why you're defending somebody you didn't seem to be fully onboard with as town.

same as above, he questions Jay on theories. At worst a scummy cbob would have just ignored Jay and tried to latch onto someone else. He was prodding hard as early as this, I don't see it as scum cbob with scum Jay.

Second point against Bob being scum. Second townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Maybe a little tin-foily, but caused by Jack voting sprit instead of you (or more accurately, voting you then quickly changing votes). If he's civ, why not self-preserve? Sure he may rather vote sprit than you but if y'all are tied there's at least a 50% chance of losing town anyway. If he's mafia and you're civ, why not vote for self-preservation and hopefully get a civvie mislynch with a totally justifiable vote? But if you're w/w, his self-preservation vote doesn't buy him cred, the outcome for the team is the same either way, and by voting a third person there's a chance somebody switches and gives mafia a chance to avoid the lynch.

(This was my pre-flip analysis, not taking into account that apparently nobody can die this game)

more Sloonei prodding here, but I'm glad for this question because I like his reply. There's townie logic here. He is theorizing in a way that I think is townie-centric. I like the direction of his thoughts and suspicions. I feel they are genuine thoughts and not framing.

Third point against Bob being scum. Third townie point for Bob.


----

I'd like to say at this point it's frustrating reading cbob's ISO because it's a giant pile of fending off suspicion and accusations and answering sloonei. It reminds me a lot of what I endured in the Seinfeld game against JJJ (we were both town) and it limits a townie's efforts of actually being a contirbuting scum hunter because they have to spend all their time and energy explaining and reexplaining and making excuses. For the majority of of post Day 1 and Day 2, that's what cBob went though and it'll be really upset if it was all townie/townie action.

----

and then it's queue JJJ to break the Sloonei/cbob pattern

Spoiler: show

He threw out a case on Eloh, nobody followed out and somebody disagreed with it, he moved off Eloh but expressed he was still fine voting her. Similarly, his "I could end up on Epi." In my experience mafia often try to gain consensus on their votes and are less likely to stake bold voting positions.

(Keep in mind part of his defense was "this is normal play for me," but I've essentially never played with him before. I modded one game on another site that I think you ebbed up replacing him, I was only alive one cycle in Crossover (and maybe he was modding?), and CC123 is far from a normal game)

Trying to look at these encounters as w/w and reasoning how likely that is.

JJJ pops out again, and senses some frustration in scum partner cbob for all the heat he's getting and questions him more about Sloonei.

Is it possible? Sure. Do I personally find it likely Jay would do that, at that specific moment, creating this specific conversation itt on purpose? No, I don't.

I mean, Jay avoided several posts I made directed towards him. He could have easily avoided butting into a conversation where cBob was explaining himself to Sloonei in a heated exchange. The fact he didn't, meant he was in a way, enjoying this was happening imo.

Fourth point against Bob being scum. Fourth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Feel like several players did. Gonna be honest (picking on your post here but several people have said this), I'm tired of the "active but forgettable" statement. How do I even defend against that? "Sorry, I'll try shouting more?" Picking out posts is fine (even if I very much disagree with several of Sloonei's criticisms) but vague accusation is vague.

Genuine frustration imho. I'll kind of answer this one for you cBob (because I've been there before), it's because you have to spend most of your game time feigning off accusations, over and over and over again, thus your actual new contributions become less than the defenses you are spending the bulk of your time making.

Fifth point against Bob being scum. Fifth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

something witty about being suspicious of me not actually being open to changing my vote but then exhibiting the exact same behavior

Ok I'm done for the night. Will be pretty busy tomorrow so don't expect me until evening.

damn son. No townie points credited here, but I really hate it when someone accuses me of something because they want to find a scum in me, but end up doing that something late in the game themselves.

-------

at this point, cBob makes his GTH reads.

Let's look at things we know:

He named Jay good, Jay is bad.
He named Jack bad, while we aren't 100% certain there's a 90% chance Jack is good.
He named Daisy good, Daisy seems good.
He named Mesk bad, Mesk was good.
He named Dom bad, Dom was good.

Just leaving this out there. IMO, this is a townie GTH. Although I sent Jay a 5 min opinion on why I think GTH reads are useless, I'm going to play along and say this is a good thing. I won't credit him Townie points for it, because I have a principle to maintain and that is that I think GTH reads are useless

----------

Spoiler: show

Why the change?

I can't see scum cBob questioning someone who is finally trying to view him as town. I can see a townie cBob doing that. Indeed, a townie dunya often does that because even when people are town-reading you, you want to know why and how because everyone and anyone can be suspicious, even your supporters. This was on board questioning with his GTH reads -- he questions Jack, who he believes is more bad than good.

Sixth point against Bob being scum. Sixth townie point for Bob.

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I didn't quite like this abrupt post, but then again, things were happening, Jay's name was popping up.

The next post made me feel a bit better:

Spoiler: show

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

He was the first person to mention the bussing scenario. I like it. I feel it was authentic townie. I don't award people the same level of townie points who made the same observation after him.

Seventh point against Bob being scum. Seventh townie point for Bob.

-------

Next is the Jay lynching episode. There are way too many posts to quote, but post JJJ flip, is definitely Townie cBob making analysis on voting pattern. I realize a lot of people can argue this is all possible bussing, so I won't award any townie points but I feel it was a townie effort for the whole.

-------

I have to stop here for now.

I want to share what I have this far in. I just have way too much school work, sorry, guys. I'll try to finish cBob, but I think you get the gist of my read on him.

Thanks. I share your hesitation regarding those Jay/Bob dialogues earlier in the game. They've been my main hangup. But what keeps me from turning Bob into a town read as a result of them is the person on the other side of those dialogues: Jay. I expect him to have conversations like that with his teammates indiscriminately when he's bad. He knows what associations (or lack thereof) townies are looking for when they go hunting. And, while I'm not tremendously familiar with Bob as an individual, I have spent some time with other HCRealms players (Jack and Malakim are two others here in this game with us), and I see no reason to believe that an intricate strategy like this would be beyond the grasp of one of their players. Bob seems to know how to handle himself generally within the game of Mafia.

I also give him no credit for potentially being the first to publicly acknowledge that Jay was a prime bus candidate on Day 4. I don't know whether that distinction is truly his or not, but it is something that was obvious, I think, and one of his teammates surely would have been clued into this even more than a townie.

I'm deep in the tunnel. I've never experienced a suspicion like this one before. Usually when I make this much noise about a player I eventually change my mind or one of us ends up dead. I've been screaming about Bob for a week now and we're both still here. I'm not sure I can turn off this read, and I'm not sure I want to. I firmly believe he's not a big mountain.

You are certainly a bigger town read for me than cBob. I almost want to lynch him now so you can get your focus off him. I feel bad because I still think he's town, but I do understand Jay's capabilities of leaving a trail of crumbs for us to misinterpret as well... I don't know.

I've moved to cBob. I was wrong about Jack. I think a cBob flip is better than a sig flip (INH...I'd be willing to lynch).

Sorry if you're town cBob. But I think sometimes townies have to be less stubborn and try another townie's beliefs.

why exactly are you voting for him?

This post

Spoiler: show

I'd argue that the climate in the thread was very clearly anti-Jay as we approached the deadline yesterday. Your vote may have put him over the top, but I don't find that to be a tremendously convincing fact given that he was clearly the most widely-suspected player and votes were beginning to pile on him.

I don't think that's a fair representation. At the time where bob placed his vote on Jay, there was someone else in the lead.

I know there's a case to be made for bussing, but I don't think this was a case of it. The votes at that specific point could have gone either way I think.

I always felt like Jay's lynch was inevitable on Day 4. I've been reading that whole day as a careful attempt by him and his teammates to put as much space between themselves as they could manage without causing him to fall unnecessarily. Bob's behavior that day is the closest I observed to matching that pattern.

Apologies, but I was only looking for your posts regarding Jay in that ISO. However, my questions are here are meant to be about why you specifically vote for speedchuck rather than Jay, because from what I saw you had every reason to vote for Jay but only ended up moving to him because you preferred the voters against him to the voters against speedchuck. I want to know how your thoughts developed during the day phase, if that helps.

again, I feel like you were being a bit pushy here. In your long Jay/Bob iso you clearly say that while bob prodded Jay on numerous occasions, there was no heavy scum read from Bob to Jay. Why did he have "every reason to vote for Jay" then? I think that's a bit of a hyperbole. Perhaps he didn't have any more valid reasons to vote for speedchuck, but he did. That doesn't mean he didn't suspect speedchuck along with everyone else who had a vote on speed at that point.

Here's the progression I followed when I said he had "every reason to vote for Jay":

Spoiler: show

Seeing some very potential JJJ/quin links page 65. Also, did tripJ ever explain his late swap from Eloh back to Mesk?

I don't think J is bad with Dunya or Quin.

Bad Jimmy and bad Quin don't team up to save bad Dom. That's really dangerous for little return, given Dom has been inactive.

I still think Wuin is good.

Disagree. The first death being a mafia death is very bad thing for mafia. Bad Quin has cover from pushing after lasagne from the beginning, plus it's easier to justify votes swapping around in a CFD type EOD. I mean heck Sloonei voted with JJJ and I'm almost positive they're not w/w. I think JJJ/Quin/Dom w/w/w is still very much on the table.

(Plus little return isn't necessarily true. He could be Sutter Buttes, or Gwendol Wreakin's kill might be special in some way. And if his teammates can submit an action for him, doubly so.)

These posts establish a basis for beginning to suspect Jay. He's not come out to declare a full-blown suspicion, but he is making observations which point to reading negative points against him. He continues:

Spoiler: show

Kylemii

I didn't like his push on Jack, I don't feel like he's solving, and I don't want to tunnel in on JJJ this early in the phase.

A vote for Kyle because he "doesn't want to tunnel on JJJ early in the phase." A legitimate caution that I do not fault a player for, but it's easy for me to also read this as a scum player acknowledging a case against their teammate and leaving the door open to pursue that lynch if the avenue becomes preferable without immediately committing to it.

Spoiler: show

I'm also bothered by the lack of votes in this day.

If Jay is bad, it would make sense for there to be some counter-wagon by now (maybe Wilgy is the counter wagon?). And I don't like how everyone who is voting for Jay is someone I'm currently townreading (well there is Jack, but I like current Jack more than Day 1 Jack so i'm still on the fence about him). Maybe mafia is just watching from afar, since the civs are doing their dirty work for them. So they don't need to expose themselves, by making bussing too obvious or risking discussion going against them.

Still catching up but had to comment on this. Jay seems a pretty obvious target for today - if he is bad he seems a better candidate for bussing than saving, especially considering his availability.

Jay is "a pretty obvious target today". Not sure if that "obvious" refers to Jay being an obvious person to suspect (ie, jay is scum on toast) or "obvious" as in "it's rather obvious people are going to vote for Jay regardless of his alignment", but this still reads as further basis for Bob to vote for Jay, though he's not yet committed himself personally to the endeavor.
He votes for speedchuck. Chuck E. Speed and wilgy were the two counterwagons to Jay that day. I don't aim to discredit bob for this, I'm just posting here for the record. The following is what I aim to discredit him for:

Spoiler: show

I like the people on JJJ much more, so I'm swtiching over. JJJ

Despite all the previously highlighted evidence for which Bob could attribute a vote for Jay, in the critical moment of Bob's vote the best he could muster was that the people who were voting for Jay looked better than the people who were voting for Speedchuck. This does not look like an authentic justification for his vote. This is what I meant when I said he had "every reason to vote for Jay"; it was not that he had no reason to vote for Speedchuck instead of Jay, it's that he had expressed more than once that Jay was a player who could be voted for based on in-thread evidence, but he cited none of this when it came time to actually vote for him. It strikes me as incongruous to the rest of his posts that day, and a soft vote which he's since used as armor against suspicion.

If you had more to say about my bob case that I've overlooked, dunya, please let me know and I'll try to respond.

along with the fact honestly, I'm not that hot on a sig lynch. I saw him as a better alternative to Quin when I was on the fence on cBob. Sig was one of the first town reads I had in this game. I still think I could be wrong and there is at least 1 inactive scum (because of rules of probability).

I didn't like cBob's lack of enthusiasm this round. I feel like I defended him more than he tried to defend himself, and I've been online all day waiting for him to come in and defend himself some more. Maybe his style of play is different, or maybe he honestly lacks the drive for repeating arguments. Either way, I can't say it's moved me (and I stayed up till 5.30am to be here this day so I can see it through).

I can see some Jay/cBob distancing, although I saw the same in Jack/Jay so I feel more hesitant after that theory got blown into a thousand pieces.

I trust you far more than I trust either Quin or cBob, so I'm going to see this through and I stand by it wholeheartedly.

I did not like at all cBob's questioning of Quin's rainbow list placement of another player, and why he found that odd, and still didn't find a valid excuse for it.

I may have missed a few points on why, but this post is huge cos of the spoilers so I'll add more in a bit.

[Long Con]

Long Con is voting sig because he misread my post about sig.

No, I'm voting sig because I interpreted the posts you presented differently than you. I realize that you don't really want to allow this sort of thing, but you can't really control that, and you're going to have to settle for uttering some petty, dickish remark... or try to be, like, less surly about every damn thing.

[Epignosis]

Long Con is voting sig because he misread my post about sig.

No, I'm voting sig because I interpreted the posts you presented differently than you. I realize that you don't really want to allow this sort of thing, but you can't really control that, and you're going to have to settle for uttering some petty, dickish remark... or try to be, like, less surly about every damn thing.

You assumed my intentions. You color-coded them. I don't think sig is bad. That didn't stop me from commenting on his posts as I wished.

Why aren't your considering 3J's posts against sig as more important than the gibberish busy sig put out there? I think that's more important.

[nutella]

does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

care to explain?

I'll try my best to summarize, but I do strongly encourage you to take a look for yourself and develop your own interpretations.

Basically, Bob has a few casual interactions with Quin towards the beginning of the game and names him as a town read a few times. Then on night 3 (before the JJJ lynch but when most everyone thinks he's bad) he says that he sees potential links between JJJ and Quin and supports the notion of JJJ/Quin w/w. But then, he argues against Kyle's argument against Quin, see below

Spoiler: show

Let me tell you something about my meta, nutella.

Pretty much the only thing I know how to do in mafia is be genuine. I can only play by those standards. My suspicions are authentic or they are nothing. I don't say someone looks bad unless they look bad. When nobody looks bad, I say nobody looks bad. If you ever think I've made something up, reconsider. Because "making things up" is not something I care to do, and not something I'm confident I can do.

That is how I play mafia, both as a civilian and as scum.

If this were word-for-word true then you'd go through every mafia roll game suspecting no one at all.

Townies never look bad?

(Lol look at me defending Quin who is probably one of my bigger scumreads before really digging into everybody)

That parenthetical is j.u.i.c.y. Yet he keeps going, claiming that Kyle was misrepresenting stuff Quin said. Meanwhile, Quin is on his short list of suspects (N5), then his first D6 post is the "smellin what Epi is cookin" vote for Quin. He gets some criticism for that, but points to the fact that he has previously named Quin as a suspect. Rest of today, he has some back-and-forth with Quin, suddenly changes his vote to sig saying he "buys Quin as town", and 20 minutes later changes back to Quin.

Yeeeaahh, this can go either way I guess, and I should probably still dig deeper into JJJ-related interactions, but I see a potential bussing arc here.

[Epignosis]

Bear in mind that Sit Your Butts might be in play.

[dunya]

well if cbob and quin are BOTH scum, then I will retire mafia forever after this game hahaha.

[dunya]

Bear in mind that Sit Your Butts might be in play.

and Everest :o

[dunya]

is that it? are votes not going to move? Cos I need to sleep guys.

[Kylemii]

I'm more inclined to vote cbob than quin today, Jay's interactions with cbob look worse than Quin, and I know this isn't a direct parallel but Quin didn't ever get down or lose interest when half our team died in CC123, or at least he didn't really act like it, so I think maybe my theory on him losing hope may be non indicative