Mountain Mafia [END]

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Who will be flattened?

Poll ended at Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:55 am

Dragon D. Luffy
0
No votes
dunya
0
No votes
Kylemii
0
No votes
Long Con
0
No votes
nijuukyugou
6
38%
nutella
0
No votes
Quin
2
13%
speedchuck
0
No votes
Marmot (Hosts/Nons/Deads)
8
50%
 
Total votes: 16
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6041

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:35 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:53 pm Nutella is semi-confirmed and LC is confirmed by Speed assuming Speed is not lieing. That's the only ones I'd call confirmed.
you're confirming LC based on speed, and calling him full on confirmed as opposed to nutella's game mechanically semi-confirmed. why would I trust my enemy's friend?

I think LC is towniest one after me and Kyle but still, your reasons are weirder than mine :p
Give me one reason why Speed would lie to protect LC.

There is only one baddie left. Not two.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6042

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

At most I can see it as a convoluted play by a jester Speed to increase his chance of being lynched himself but in that case LC isn't even the best person to confirm. I would have said Blooper as civ instead.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6043

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Any civ claim by anyone about anyone at this point should be taken as likely correct. It's a matter of logic. Mafia doesn't have reasons to confirm anyone.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6044

Post by dunya »

by that theory, place Kyle in your definitely town list. ;)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6045

Post by dunya »

so, we have nutella, kyle, LC and since I have seen my role card: me.

leaving ddl and quin

and speed as 3p (if he is 3p and not bluffing)

all roads lead to nijuu :shrug:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6046

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:47 pm by that theory, place Kyle in your definitely town list. ;)
I'm already doing that.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6047

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

If you guys can guess my actual role card I'll be surprised.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6048

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

If ninjuu flips town I want Speed dead.

I'm not having a jester in lylo.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6049

Post by Kylemii »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:36 pmGive me one reason why Speed would lie to protect LC.

There is only one baddie left. Not two.
I see two reasons.

1. Indie Speed claims mafia LC as confirmed civ to prevent him from being a lynch Target and ending the game, buying himself time to accomplish whatever task his win condition requires. Opportunity knocks and LC plays along.

2. Mafia Speed bluffs hard to protect himself and remove himself from the lynch priority list by soft-claiming Space Mountain which is actually LC's role, and speed knows this somehow. Speed calls "LC confirmed civ" which takes LC off the priority lynch list and also buys Speed time to do whatever his role is supposed to do to win. LC goes along with it because it appeals to his insatiable thirst for shenanigans.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6050

Post by Kylemii »

Target™
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6051

Post by dunya »

speed may have ulterior motives, but LC is actually town. in both of your scenarios, LC is not town.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6052

Post by Long Con »

Those are both awesomely believable scenarios Kyle! I wish they were the case, I'd be proud.

Oh yeah, and after last K2, I'm finally caught up with the rest of you on K2's identity. :blush:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6053

Post by Kylemii »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:02 pm speed may have ulterior motives, but LC is actually town. in both of your scenarios, LC is not town.
Well... yeah. In order for speed to have lied about LC being town, LC would have to be not town, unless he's only lying about the confirmation aspect.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6054

Post by Kylemii »

3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6055

Post by Long Con »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm 3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?
MY answers would be Yes Yes No... but that's due to my subtle hint. I don't think anyone got it.

So I would then say Yes to the first one because I think someone did some convincing vote analysis on Elohcin's Day 1 vote... which would have been some risky bussing indeed. Pretty strong, could be faked.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6056

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:00 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:36 pmGive me one reason why Speed would lie to protect LC.

There is only one baddie left. Not two.
I see two reasons.

1. Indie Speed claims mafia LC as confirmed civ to prevent him from being a lynch Target and ending the game, buying himself time to accomplish whatever task his win condition requires. Opportunity knocks and LC plays along.

2. Mafia Speed bluffs hard to protect himself and remove himself from the lynch priority list by soft-claiming Space Mountain which is actually LC's role, and speed knows this somehow. Speed calls "LC confirmed civ" which takes LC off the priority lynch list and also buys Speed time to do whatever his role is supposed to do to win. LC goes along with it because it appeals to his insatiable thirst for shenanigans.
I don't like 2 because he is hinting jester. Sure town doesn't have a motivation to kill a jester immediately but we don't have a reason to keep him alive either. It's why in some sites survivor claims get policy lynched. They are less of a liability than mafia, but still a liability.

I can see 1, though.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6057

Post by dunya »

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6058

Post by dunya »

Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:30 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:26 pm 3 questions. Please answer with only "yes" or "no" for each.

Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?

Is that reason strong? Can it be faked?
MY answers would be Yes Yes No... but that's due to my subtle hint. I don't think anyone got it.

So I would then say Yes to the first one because I think someone did some convincing vote analysis on Elohcin's Day 1 vote... which would have been some risky bussing indeed. Pretty strong, could be faked.
That someone was me. :noble:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6059

Post by Kylemii »

hmmmm alright. understood. so LC is civ.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6060

Post by Kylemii »

I mean I actually don't know what you're talking about at all but there's 0 motivation for any 3 people to lie about the same thing any more so I believe you're telling the truth so the specifics don't matter to me. :p
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6061

Post by dunya »

honestly, the 2 I can't place a role for and can't with 100% certainty say are civ are quin and ddl in that order. But I'd go back and ISO them if nijuu flips town (she won't but if).
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6062

Post by speedchuck »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
I wonder how you did it. FMPOV, you shouldn't have been able to figure it out concretely. Unless you figured it out from what I said. (which would please me greatly)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6063

Post by Kylemii »

speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6064

Post by speedchuck »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6065

Post by Kylemii »

so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6066

Post by speedchuck »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6067

Post by Kylemii »

speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6068

Post by speedchuck »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life
Well, you are only ten. I guess DDL is a good father.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6069

Post by Kylemii »

hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6070

Post by Long Con »

speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
So I was right? Like, really right? :noble: :noble: :noble: My concern is that you winning means everyone else loses. I don't know that you'll get there anyway.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6071

Post by Long Con »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
This... this I do not get at all. Something outside the thread?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6072

Post by dunya »

Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:11 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:33 pm Is there a reason to believe LC is confirmed civ, outside of Speedchuck's claims?
yes

Is that reason strong?
yes

Can it be faked?
no
This... this I do not get at all. Something outside the thread?
outside the thread? no? I meant I confirmed you civ on my own accord. DDL confirmed you civ because speedchuck said you're civ.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6073

Post by dunya »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I'd also be interested in this.

The sense of urgency you displayed after I made a case against you has disappeared. :confused2:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6074

Post by dunya »

I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6075

Post by nutella »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:44 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:36 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:27 pm so my dreams really don't tell the future? :sigh:
... nnnnnnooo.
:stare:

this is the worst revelation of my entire life
well, I had a really vivid dream that DDL was bad... :ponder: (no really I did lol it was weird)

I think I'm missing out on some stuff re: the whole LC thing and deducing people's roles, but I have believed he's good for a while now and anyway I trust what people are saying and probably should be able to guess more people's roles now
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6076

Post by dunya »

are you keeping your vote on Quin? why is quin more likely than nijuu in your opinion, nutella?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6077

Post by nutella »

Ehh, I feel like Quin and DDL are about equally likely but probably below niju I guess. When I posted/voted late last night I really felt like niju was less likely than we thought, but your discussion since then mostly re-convinces me that she's probably the simplest answer. The lead is enough that my vote doesn't matter though so I'm keeping it on symbolically/out of laziness
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6078

Post by dunya »

So your suspect after nijuu is one of Quin and DDL.

I might disagree if nijuu flips town, I have another theory. :ponder:
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6079

Post by speedchuck »

Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6080

Post by speedchuck »

Long Con wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:10 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:24 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:20 pm speed friendo, are your answers also "yes yes no" RE: LC
Sort of. Yes to the first two. Almost yes to the third one. It could be faked, but it would take guesswork and a crapton of luck. Like, an unbelievable amount. So much.
So I was right? Like, really right? :noble: :noble: :noble: My concern is that you winning means everyone else loses. I don't know that you'll get there anyway.
I am saying NOTHING.

Your concern is invalid, but I guess you would assume I'd say that. Your concern doesn't make sense with this setup.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6081

Post by speedchuck »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:41 pm So your suspect after nijuu is one of Quin and DDL.

I might disagree if nijuu flips town, I have another theory. :ponder:
I would like to hear this theory.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6082

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

nutella wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:24 pm
well, I had a really vivid dream that DDL was bad... :ponder: (no really I did lol it was weird)
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6083

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6084

Post by dunya »

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6085

Post by dunya »

speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
so what was the urgency during last lynch?
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6086

Post by Dragon D. Luffy »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:54 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.
Ok sorry thought it was a stab.
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Kylemii
Bodice of Reason
Posts in topic: 781
Posts: 11433
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Preferred Pronouns: he/him

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6087

Post by Kylemii »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:54 pm
Dragon D. Luffy wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:34 pm
dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm I don't call people civ because other people said they're civ. I don't call people scum because other people said they're scum.

I have to see it and feel it for myself.
Nice stab, but you won't convince me. I care more about hard logic than any feeling I get when reading people. Because hard logic is measurable, while gut feeling is very inaccurate. I only use the later when the former fails to solve my problem.
:puppy:

it wasn't a stab, it was an observation of my methods for Kyle. I totally understand why you said what you did now.
Oh, I didn't realize that was addressed to me.
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speedchuck
Knight of No Renown
Posts in topic: 497
Posts: 10958
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:43 am

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6088

Post by speedchuck »

dunya wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:00 pm
speedchuck wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 pm
Kylemii wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:50 pm hey mr speedster what's the current status on ur weird death-wish thing
I do not currently wish to die. It would be a waste of a day phase.
so what was the urgency during last lynch?
I thought sig was bad.
I thought scum could nightkill.
Friggin SEVEN failed deaths this game
SIGNATURE:
Spoiler: show
Speedchuck wins the "Jack Torrance Has Always Been The Caretaker" award.
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nijuukyugou
Tentacled Henchman
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Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6089

Post by nijuukyugou »

Spoiler: show
I'll be the roundabout
The words will make you out 'n' out
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
The marmots dance and sing
They make the mountains really ring
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One marmot over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four before my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
I will remember you
Your silhouette will charge the view
Of distance atmosphere
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
Even in the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One mile over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four marmots my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
Along the drifting cloud
The eagle's searching down on the land
Catching the swirling wind
The marmot sees the rim of the land
The eagle's dancing wings
Create as marmots spin out of hand
Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
We stand to lose all time
A thousand marmots by in our hand
Next to your deeper fears
We stand surrounded by a million marmots

Ma ma ma ma marmot

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Epignosis
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Posts in topic: 396
Posts: 40516
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:59 pm

Re: Mountain Mafia [DAY 10]

#6090

Post by Epignosis »

nijuukyugou wrote: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:33 pm
Spoiler: show
I'll be the roundabout
The words will make you out 'n' out
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
The marmots dance and sing
They make the mountains really ring
I spend the day your way
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
In and out the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One marmot over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four before my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
I will remember you
Your silhouette will charge the view
Of distance atmosphere
Call it marmots driving through the sound and
Even in the valley
In and around the lake
Marmots come out of the sky and they stand there
One mile over we'll be there and we'll see you
Ten true summers we'll be there and laughing too
Twenty four marmots my love you'll see
I'll be there with you
Along the drifting cloud
The eagle's searching down on the land
Catching the swirling wind
The marmot sees the rim of the land
The eagle's dancing wings
Create as marmots spin out of hand
Go closer hold the land
Feel partly no more than grains of sand
We stand to lose all time
A thousand marmots by in our hand
Next to your deeper fears
We stand surrounded by a million marmots

Ma ma ma ma marmot

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:clap: :haha:
Stream my music for free: https://epignosis.bandcamp.com/
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