The Syndicate

Welp.

I still feel good about a handful of my town reads, but i'm down to zero confident scum reads. LC seems like an alright guess. Iffy on Quin but still leaning town. I could stand to give DDL another look. Kyle too. wilgy hasn't moved my town needle in a while.

i've been very wrong. I need to forget about this game for a little while.

Hot tamale. The little hills are laughing their little asses off at us right now.

I still think Quin is bad.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:33 am LC seems like an alright guess.

alright guess for mafia?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:28 pm Dunya...before I go to bed... I don't put as much time into mafia as you do. We cannot all do that. I am responsible for three (possibly 4 if you count epi) lives other than my own. For their education, discipline, and well being. I have not made any in depth cases for anyone. I rarely do. But, I share my opinion often of what's going down in the thread and I participate as much as possible, and I vote! I'm here to help as much as I can. You can't punish me for being mediocre. I'm much better for the civs than INH, sig, and other non-participants.

I really am sorry for my continued paranoia. It's just that I've personally lost to scum who would make valid "I'm so busy, I'm so sorry, life is crazy" excuses to me before and it hurts more than losing to someone who fools you, you know? I know you live with Epi and Epi verified your excuse but it isn't really alignment indicative to me. I will look further than the first page of your ISOs and see how I feel. I have a night phase I can relax a little and look at things more objectively and now that we have a townie cBob, we have more data to sift through.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:39 am

Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:28 pm Dunya...before I go to bed... I don't put as much time into mafia as you do. We cannot all do that. I am responsible for three (possibly 4 if you count epi) lives other than my own. For their education, discipline, and well being. I have not made any in depth cases for anyone. I rarely do. But, I share my opinion often of what's going down in the thread and I participate as much as possible, and I vote! I'm here to help as much as I can. You can't punish me for being mediocre. I'm much better for the civs than INH, sig, and other non-participants.

I really am sorry for my continued paranoia. It's just that I've personally lost to scum who would make valid "I'm so busy, I'm so sorry, life is crazy" excuses to me before and it hurts more than losing to someone who fools you, you know? I know you live with Epi and Epi verified your excuse but it isn't really alignment indicative to me. I will look further than the first page of your ISOs and see how I feel. I have a night phase I can relax a little and look at things more objectively and now that we have a townie cBob, we have more data to sift through.

to clarify: you can be busy and scum. It's some posts you've made that just seem kinda out of place or unexplainable that I feel particularly bad out.

I'll try to lay off you this day and see how I feel tomorrow because I can't shake off my nutella bad feelings either, I go off and come back to them after every eod and eon phase...I think I'm going to iso her and speed at some point before eod 7 and see how I feel about them. I promise to go over the rest of your posts too, Eloh, and see how I feel.

hi. this is my fake rainbow list that does not consist of any colors. 3 scummers are in my bottom 5 imo. INH and sig are a wildcard, one of them can be scum, but certainly not both for previously conceived game mechanics imo. I feel pretty good about everyone on the top half of my reads except maybe a little bit of uncertainty towards DDL right now for weird logic last night (Quin is scum because he's bad at being scum because that was old DDL...) (I just want to refresh why I felt good about him). So I'm not wasting time with anyone else, you bottom five are all under scrutiny until I can feel so good about you that I actually start building an ISO in your favor. Elochin I'm backing off this phase, because I want to simply read her ISO quickly and sleep on it. Cool off. See how I feel about her tomorrow. See how I feel about other leads.

dunya
Sloonei
DrWilgy
Epignosis
Long Con
Quin
DDL
sig
---
Elohcin
insertnamehere
Kylemii
nutella
speedchuck

Quin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:39 pm and his response to my earlier case on Kyle.

What?

speedchuck wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:00 pm I think it's probably one of cBob and Quin are town

This statement feels weird when you just voted for one of them.

colonialbob wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:14 am Blah. I'm waffling again. Epi is convincing and he's had pretty good instincts so far. But unfortunately I'm going to bed so I've got to make up my mind.

quin

Final answer.

@dunya I'd look into quin, DDL, and Wilgy (who's oddly gotten a total pass the last couple of days)

cBob telling us he'd look into Quin, DDL and Wilgy.

I'm going to be doing a "quick" scan of DDL, but I won't look into Quin. I'm sure other people are going to do that for me anyway. I have no objection if someone else would like to make a case. I will read it.

oh, when I said "quick," I didn't realize DDL had 328 posts.

My lunch break ends soon, so I'll be around more evening time my time. I hope I see lots and lots of content about lots and lots of different things.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:49 am I'm more inclined to vote cbob than quin today, Jay's interactions with cbob look worse than Quin, and I know this isn't a direct parallel but Quin didn't ever get down or lose interest when half our team died in CC123, or at least he didn't really act like it, so I think maybe my theory on him losing hope may be non indicative

How is CC123 indicative of anything whatsoever?

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:27 am oh, when I said "quick," I didn't realize DDL had 328 posts.

Enjoy.

Wolves are Quin, Kyle and Eloh.

Quin needs to go.

I'm tired of Kyle doing his "watch the poll and jump on a civ at the end of the phase" routine every day. He needs to be held accountable for that. And I've been reading him bad on gut feeling all game. And I think he slipped on the "her" thing. I've been avoiding ISOs all game, but after I'm done with Quin I'm doing it on Kyle, confirmation bias be danmed.

And if Kyle flips bad, then I bet the last scum is lacking a Y chromossome. Eloh is the only one of the three I'm not reading as civ right now.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:45 am Wolves are Quin, Kyle and Eloh.

Me and my two biggest suspects for the majority of the game are all teammates? Nah.

I'd also like to know why Quin first? What do you feel incriminates Quin especially from the cBob flip?

People were arguing that if Quin flips scum, cBob is more than likely his team mate.

I don't see the argument to be had if cBob flips town, Quin is scum.

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:26 am
i'm sorry bob.

My experience has taught me many things. One of those things is never to listen to other people.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:26 am I'd also like to know why Quin first? What do you feel incriminates Quin especially from the cBob flip?

Why should there be anything that incriminates Quinin Bob's flip? It is a civ flip after all. Very little information to be gained.

The point is that I wanted to lynch Quin last night, and I still do.

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:24 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:45 am Wolves are Quin, Kyle and Eloh.

Me and my two biggest suspects for the majority of the game are all teammates? Nah.

Now I'm curious. Can you show posts of this?

I'd also point out that not every time there's a save between two lynch candidates (in this case Quin and cBob) does it automatically implicate that the one who avoided getting lynched is scum. Malakim/Dom and Mesk lynching scenario comes to mind. Jack/Sloonei is another.

I am, however, open to new, logical theories about why Quin has got to go.

The one thing I would say against Quin last night is his voting patterns didn't seem all that normal. He voted for sig easily when that was a thing on the table, but refused to budge on cBob. I mean, even cBob felt like it was worth a shot to save himself and voted for Quin (perhaps he genuinely thought Quin was scum too, but considering he flipped to sig when he thought that would take off, I wouldn't bet any serious money on it). If I'm that close to being lynched and without knowing where Everest's and Sutter Buttes' votes are, I would have taken more desperate measures and placed a vote on cBob quicker than Quin did (after a couple of prods from Sloonei) for self preservation. He felt the need to explain why he was voting for cBob before he did, which could be Townie who doesn't want this to come and bite him in the ass later on, or it could be slightly scummy-minded.

The whole episode could be interpreted in two ways.

I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

I mean, I'm not saying I'm completely sure on Quin. I welcome new theories on him being scum or civ.

Just saying, we should at least keep our radar where it is before dismissing it for "Bob didn't flip bad so that specific theory is dead".

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

^ a lot of people made that argument against Malakim/Dom and Mesk. We were lynching Dom. There were 5 votes against him. Why did we lynch Mesk instead?

Both town.

cBob case was based on Sloonei's vision, and Quin's case took off after Epi made some remarks about how he Quin reacted to him. Apart from Slooeni and Epi (while he was on Quin), I don't consider any of your votes full of conviction.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:47 am I mean, I'm not saying I'm completely sure on Quin. I welcome new theories on him being scum or civ.

Just saying, we should at least keep our radar where it is before dismissing it for "Bob didn't flip bad so that specific theory is dead".

I don't think any of these things is what you actually have been saying and implying in the thread. You came in strong and hard against Quin. Perhaps you weren't as strong against Kyle, or even Eloh, but no where did you indicate you're wishy washy on Quin.

And literally no one said to dismiss it. In fact, I said many people will be theorizing why Quin is scum so I won't have to dwell on that.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:54 am Quin needs to go.

I'm tired of Kyle doing his "watch the poll and jump on a civ at the end of the phase" routine every day. He needs to be held accountable for that. And I've been reading him bad on gut feeling all game. And I think he slipped on the "her" thing. I've been avoiding ISOs all game, but after I'm done with Quin I'm doing it on Kyle, confirmation bias be danmed.

And if Kyle flips bad, then I bet the last scum is lacking a Y chromossome. Eloh is the only one of the three I'm not reading as civ right now.

that's clearly pushing imo.

You're backtracking in your last post.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:49 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

^ a lot of people made that argument against Malakim/Dom and Mesk. We were lynching Dom. There were 5 votes against him. Why did we lynch Mesk instead?

Both town.

cBob case was based on Sloonei's vision, and Quin's case took off after Epi made some remarks about how he Quin reacted to him. Apart from Slooeni and Epi (while he was on Quin), I don't consider any of your votes full of conviction.

That's confirmation bias. What happened with Malakim2099 and Mesk is independent from what may happen with colonialbob and Quin.

I'm not actually thinking that, I'm just debunking any fool proof logic with "there was 5 votes on Quin...why did we stop"

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:39 am

Elohcin wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:28 pm Dunya...before I go to bed... I don't put as much time into mafia as you do. We cannot all do that. I am responsible for three (possibly 4 if you count epi) lives other than my own. For their education, discipline, and well being. I have not made any in depth cases for anyone. I rarely do. But, I share my opinion often of what's going down in the thread and I participate as much as possible, and I vote! I'm here to help as much as I can. You can't punish me for being mediocre. I'm much better for the civs than INH, sig, and other non-participants.

I really am sorry for my continued paranoia. It's just that I've personally lost to scum who would make valid "I'm so busy, I'm so sorry, life is crazy" excuses to me before and it hurts more than losing to someone who fools you, you know? I know you live with Epi and Epi verified your excuse but it isn't really alignment indicative to me. I will look further than the first page of your ISOs and see how I feel. I have a night phase I can relax a little and look at things more objectively and now that we have a townie cBob, we have more data to sift through.

I am always pretty busy, whether scum or civ, you will see me say it in the thread when trying to answer people about why I'm not more active. You'd think people would get it by now. Also, when I started mafia years ago...ISOs and rainbow lists weren't even a thing. Mafia was not this intense and time consuming. It has definitely evolved over time on this site and even though I still like to play, I haven't really evolved my playstyle. IF I have extra time, I will do an ISO here or there. I figure that means reading through one particular suspicious player and aeeing what I can see.

That said... I'm sorry you we are suffering here with our lynches. At least for some reason, we are doing okay during the night. I try to vote alongaide other so my vote isn't worth nothing. I think our problem is we're bouncing around too much. What happened to our suspicons of say...sig, INH, kyle? I thunk we suspect people and then move on to someone else without finding out if our suspicons are correct. And.... I think (if we have vocal baddies) they're who must have a hand in steering us away. I still think LC could most definitely be bad. Anyway...not fully caught up, but I've had my one cup of coffee,so I must get off my ass and do some more work.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:51 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:47 am I mean, I'm not saying I'm completely sure on Quin. I welcome new theories on him being scum or civ.

Just saying, we should at least keep our radar where it is before dismissing it for "Bob didn't flip bad so that specific theory is dead".

I don't think any of these things is what you actually have been saying and implying in the thread. You came in strong and hard against Quin. Perhaps you weren't as strong against Kyle, or even Eloh, but no where did you indicate you're wishy washy on Quin.

And literally no one said to dismiss it. In fact, I said many people will be theorizing why Quin is scum so I won't have to dwell on that.

I've been wishy washy on everybody since the beginning.

I still need totake initiative, even if I'm notsure of my reads, because otherwise we can't win.

Just because I don't add "I might be wrong" at theend of my votes doesn't mean I'm not second guessing myself.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:56 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:54 am Quin needs to go.

I'm tired of Kyle doing his "watch the poll and jump on a civ at the end of the phase" routine every day. He needs to be held accountable for that. And I've been reading him bad on gut feeling all game. And I think he slipped on the "her" thing. I've been avoiding ISOs all game, but after I'm done with Quin I'm doing it on Kyle, confirmation bias be danmed.

And if Kyle flips bad, then I bet the last scum is lacking a Y chromossome. Eloh is the only one of the three I'm not reading as civ right now.

that's clearly pushing imo.

You're backtracking in your last post.

I'm not backtracking.

I like pressure. I want to pressure Quin. Make him sweat. Make others sweat.

But in the meantime, you people want to point my pressure at better directions, I'm smart enough to listen to you.

dunya wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:00 am I'm not actually thinking that, I'm just debunking any fool proof logic with "there was 5 votes on Quin...why did we stop"

That was not an attempt to "foolproof" anything.

That was a question. And I'm asking it to everyone:

Why did we stop?

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

Okay...still sitting and reading with cup #2. I want to carch up!

This is kind of how I feel. We talk about lynching someone, start voting, the votes trickle elsewhere, and we never come back to our original suspicion. Why is this?

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:10 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

Okay...still sitting and reading with cup #2. I want to carch up!

This is kind of how I feel. We talk about lynching someone, start voting, the votes trickle elsewhere, and we never come back to our original suspicion. Why is this?

Because we stupid.

I don't even think the little mountains are responsible.

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:07 am Alright, hey what's up, I just experienced every single human emotion all at once. How are you guys? Gotta go catch up.

Bad break up?

Quin wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:24 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:45 am Wolves are Quin, Kyle and Eloh.

Me and my two biggest suspects for the majority of the game are all teammates? Nah.

Quin, what do you think of Wilgy/Kyle/Eloh.

Better yet, Sloonei/Kyle/Eloh

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:10 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

Okay...still sitting and reading with cup #2. I want to carch up!

This is kind of how I feel. We talk about lynching someone, start voting, the votes trickle elsewhere, and we never come back to our original suspicion. Why is this?

I feel like this is the 10th time you're buddying with a post of mine in this game.

speedchuck wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:07 am

Elohcin wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:10 am

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:45 am I don't need new theories.

We were lynching Quin last night. There were 5 votes on him.

Why did we stop, and why can't we come back?

Okay...still sitting and reading with cup #2. I want to carch up!

This is kind of how I feel. We talk about lynching someone, start voting, the votes trickle elsewhere, and we never come back to our original suspicion. Why is this?

Because we stupid.

I don't even think the little mountains are responsible.

Most civ lynches are usually caused by civs being stupid.

On a completely unrelated note:

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:33 pm

Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:31 pm Quin is town. Colonialbob is not town. If both these statements are false I will eat my Marmot hat.

I need a good reason to change my vote. You are strong in your assessment. I don't have an opinion of colonialbob.

I will change if you can convince me to do so. You will, of course, need more than that.

As you can see, though, I have a very poor opinion of Quin.

Epignosis wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:34 pm colonialbob

Your vote would have made a difference, and gotten Quin lynched, at this point:

Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:06 am OK, hittin' up bob to seal the deal. It was 6-4, now it's 7-4.

So, if you suspected Quin more, and you needed good reason to change your vote, then why did you switch to bob?

EBWOP: *maybe gotten Quin lynched. Would have been 5-5 with my vote on sig.

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:15 am @Epignosis if you switch back to Quin he'll be in the lead over sig.

still, hey @Long Con you could join us you know. remember last time I asked you to join me? yeah, it was a scum! :P

Maybe you were right, but then you went all:

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:27 am

Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:20 am

nutella wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:17 am does anyone have a good reason why Quin and Bob can't be scumbuddies because I think they are

I haven't looked for this pattern in any way.

Well, I just did a search for Quin (heh heh heh) in Bob's ISO and I can absolutely see it. Yeah yeah confirmation bias and all, but it checks out.

Remember, kiddies: Confirmation Bias ruins lives, and it can happen to you!

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:44 am

Kylemii wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:49 am I'm more inclined to vote cbob than quin today, Jay's interactions with cbob look worse than Quin, and I know this isn't a direct parallel but Quin didn't ever get down or lose interest when half our team died in CC123, or at least he didn't really act like it, so I think maybe my theory on him losing hope may be non indicative

How is CC123 indicative of anything whatsoever?

CC123 includes a sample of Quin's behavior after loss of teammates. I said it right there.

Was Quin civ or bad in CC123?

I mean, I get your point,but I think CC123 has too many details that disturb data since it is a different game with different goals.

Dragon D. Luffy wrote: ↑Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:54 am Quin needs to go.

I'm tired of Kyle doing his "watch the poll and jump on a civ at the end of the phase" routine every day. He needs to be held accountable for that.
And I've been reading him bad on gut feeling all game

that's not what I do at all. I vote late and only vote between players with votes cus one time vote polls are what I grew up on. saving your vote til late and reviewing everything til last minute was the only way for me to be sure not to regret things so it formed as a habit.

I've put thought into every single vote I've made. attempting to paint it as 'drop a vote on at the end of the day' is a bad look for you.

. And I think he slipped on the "her" thing. I've been avoiding ISOs all game, but after I'm done with Quin I'm doing it on Kyle, confirmation bias be danmed.

And if Kyle flips bad, then I bet the last scum is lacking a Y chromossome. Eloh is the only one of the three I'm not reading as civ right now.

It wasn't a slip, I used she cus I was talking about dunya, a player who's been consistently screwed over by many of the poll times. You're ignoring the context of the post in order to focus on a single word.