Fiddler on the Roof Mafia

[Marmot]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

Too late man. I'm already lynched tomorrow.

[FZ.]

I've played several games with Mac. I only recall one where he was bad, maybe there was another one. Problem is, I remember him being very "useful" to the town that game. I think it was the first game I've ever played with him. I often feel about him that he has the "I don't give a shit" attitude when he's good, and he gives these sort of answers that imply he's doing his own thing and doesn't really care what you think. This game he feels like he cares a lot. The thing is, I haven't played for a long time and maybe I forgot games he was this serious as a civ. So I want people who know him to tell me whether there's something in what I'm saying. If he's good, I think he deserves a win here just as much as any of us, so I don't want us to lynch him. But if he's bad, he's doing a fabulous job and it will be similar to the one I've played with him back then

[Sloonei]

I've played several games with Mac. I only recall one where he was bad, maybe there was another one. Problem is, I remember him being very "useful" to the town that game. I think it was the first game I've ever played with him. I often feel about him that he has the "I don't give a shit" attitude when he's good, and he gives these sort of answers that imply he's doing his own thing and doesn't really care what you think. This game he feels like he cares a lot. The thing is, I haven't played for a long time and maybe I forgot games he was this serious as a civ. So I want people who know him to tell me whether there's something in what I'm saying. If he's good, I think he deserves a win here just as much as any of us, so I don't want us to lynch him. But if he's bad, he's doing a fabulous job and it will be similar to the one I've played with him back then

I don't think this is always a reliable meta for mac, though I've seen it in the past as well. Most of my meta read on him is ancient though. With recent context, I could see a more focused and "helpful" town Mac in this game because he was just mislynched in Mortal Kombat.

[Sloonei]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

Too late man. I'm already lynched tomorrow.

No you're not. Help us catch the last baddie.

[FZ.]

I've played several games with Mac. I only recall one where he was bad, maybe there was another one. Problem is, I remember him being very "useful" to the town that game. I think it was the first game I've ever played with him. I often feel about him that he has the "I don't give a shit" attitude when he's good, and he gives these sort of answers that imply he's doing his own thing and doesn't really care what you think. This game he feels like he cares a lot. The thing is, I haven't played for a long time and maybe I forgot games he was this serious as a civ. So I want people who know him to tell me whether there's something in what I'm saying. If he's good, I think he deserves a win here just as much as any of us, so I don't want us to lynch him. But if he's bad, he's doing a fabulous job and it will be similar to the one I've played with him back then

I don't think this is always a reliable meta for mac, though I've seen it in the past as well. Most of my meta read on him is ancient though. With recent context, I could see a more focused and "helpful" town Mac in this game because he was just mislynched in Mortal Kombat.

Okay, thanks

[Sloonei]

Mac's still the tinfoil suspect in my list of town reads. I'd also add you (FZ.) to my top tier of town reads given the wedge there was between you and LC. That relationship absolutely does not strike me as bussing. I also am having more and more trouble reading Dyslexicon as scum. The game makes more sense if she's town.

[Sloonei]

Spacedaisy, NVN, wilgy, and kyle are the players I will look into next if I have time. I still feel like Kyle is town based on his speedchuck slip, but I'm not ready to remove him from the POE based on that.

[DrWilgy]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

what would be the fastest way to end the game?

Not lynching me. All I'm saying is that if we go to Lylo and I'm still a variable, it will be harder victory than if I'm purged before.

[Sloonei]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

what would be the fastest way to end the game?

Not lynching me. All I'm saying is that if we go to Lylo and I'm still a variable, it will be harder victory than if I'm purged before.

not if you shake off that variable status. If it was lylo right now, who would you vote for?

[DrWilgy]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

what would be the fastest way to end the game?

Not lynching me. All I'm saying is that if we go to Lylo and I'm still a variable, it will be harder victory than if I'm purged before.

not if you shake off that variable status. If it was lylo right now, who would you vote for?

Lol fuck Idk. Haven't really read past night 1 and the occasional pop in. I'll try to get some views but I make no promises.

[Sloonei]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

what would be the fastest way to end the game?

Not lynching me. All I'm saying is that if we go to Lylo and I'm still a variable, it will be harder victory than if I'm purged before.

not if you shake off that variable status. If it was lylo right now, who would you vote for?

Lol fuck Idk. Haven't really read past night 1 and the occasional pop in. I'll try to get some views but I make no promises.

Daisy and NVN would be good places to start if you prefer to get into it with some ISOs. Both of them are reasonable suspects who haven't made a ton of posts yet.

[FZ.]

Sloonei, I would love to see what you come up with regarding Daisy. I'm not the ISO-ing kind of person. It's too meticulous for me, but I'd like your thoughts on her.
I know people said Wilgy can be like this when in both alignments, but he's another person I'd go after only when we run out of options. If he's bad, I almost pity the baddies...


Which reminds me, Marmot, I haven't answered your question from way back when regarding the similarities to when we were bad together and you barely contributed for a while. This isn't even close. You were much more active than what I was referring to.

[Spacedaisy]

I fell kind of quiet last night while I was trying to find what I was looking for by doing some ISO's of the last twenty four hours of Mac and Marmot. I wasn't able to find it, which is frustrating so I'm just currently reading over all of the last cycle to try and find it. With my luck it will be nothing important and a huge waste of time, but whatever man.

As a note, I also tried to look at the Mac/Marmot exchange (because I thought it was in there) and considering Mac started on Marmot on Day 1, and we only have one remaining baddie it's clearly not a distancing ploy so I feel like the only scenarios I would entertain here are:

Mac is 3P/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is 3P
Mac is civ/Marmot is civ

All that to say I think at worst Mac might be 3P, but I lean civ on him. Marmot seems more likely 3P, but could also fit for bad, I'd need to double check LC/Marmot, and I know there was little to nothing for Marmot/Lorab. I feel Marmot is least likely to be civ of the two of them.

Just came across this and feel it relates to the above:

I think it's interesting that there's been so much fringe attention paid to Marmot and Mac today. LC is the consensus top suspect, Daisy and NVN have received a good deal of scrutiny, and I've been loudly hanging onto my Kyle thing. But nearly all of the focus once you get past those names has been on that M&M pairing. The two of them have been pointing at each other since last night, Long Con came in pushing Mac as his top suspect, and NVN is pushing the two of them as suspects after Long Con. It's too soon to know what to make of it exactly, but it's something I want to make note of now so it can be looked into later on when we have more solid information to work with.

Sloonei, do you feel like the focus on Mac/Marmot was a distraction then on the part of NVN and LC? Or are you thinking there was some distancing going on, or what? What exactly did you find interesting about this? And how do you think the LC flip affects the fact they got so much attention yesterday?

More on my reading when I am done.

[nutella]

Hm I should have waited until right before end of night to say that since it opens the door for framing wifom bullshit. Whatevs

I'll try protecting you by adding a second layer of wifom to protect you. *clears throat*

If I were the last remaining mafia, I would absolutely kill Marmot next, because killing Marmot is my favorite thing to do. I killed marmot first in the jester game because it felt great to do. It wasn't even for strategic purposes. Yeah. Boy, I'll tell ya. Nothing can compare to the pure adrenaline rush I get specifically from night-killing Marmot, or maybe novaselinever.

wtf is the purpose of this post my dude

Daisy is another option. Her post where she votes LC has the potential of being a baddie feeling they need to justify their vote when they're bandwagoning, so it doesn't look bad.

mmm good thoughts good thoughts

I just typed a big interactive analysis of Mac/LC and just as I was finishing it up my laptop did a dumb thing that ancient laptops are prone to do and I lost it all. My conclusion was that LC pushed hard against Mac all game except for one odd post after LoRab's lynch, and that this would normally be a very good look for Mac if I wasn't dealing with Macdougall and Long Con. They're absolutely two players who would hard distance from each other in a game, especially if they could add a layer of wifom by referencing the fact that they've already employed this exact strategy before as scum partners. Ordinarily I say that any case that has no evidence in its favor beyond wifom is not a strong one, but that theory gets an asterisk with certain players.

If I'm forced to pick a side, I do think Mac looks good in LC's ISO. Especially on Day 3, when it was not certain that LC was getting lynched and he still had a fighting chance, Mac was the player LC pushed. That push started weakly and grew into something more substantial. I don't think LC was a dead man walking for all of Day 3, and so I don't think he was willing to just punt the game away for himself at the beginning. His proposed alternative in that situation would have been someone he'd genuinely want to see lynched in his place. Mac has been firmly entrenched as a town read all game, and if he's LC's last partner then it's risky to potentially dislodge him for a wifomy save that wouldn't be guaranteed to be effective.

mmm good thoughts good thoughts

Marmot & LC

mmm good thoughts good thoughts



....yeah! let's play duck duck mafia!

[nutella]

I fell kind of quiet last night while I was trying to find what I was looking for by doing some ISO's of the last twenty four hours of Mac and Marmot. I wasn't able to find it, which is frustrating so I'm just currently reading over all of the last cycle to try and find it. With my luck it will be nothing important and a huge waste of time, but whatever man.

As a note, I also tried to look at the Mac/Marmot exchange (because I thought it was in there) and considering Mac started on Marmot on Day 1, and we only have one remaining baddie it's clearly not a distancing ploy so I feel like the only scenarios I would entertain here are:

Mac is 3P/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is bad
Mac is civ/Marmot is 3P
Mac is civ/Marmot is civ

All that to say I think at worst Mac might be 3P, but I lean civ on him. Marmot seems more likely 3P, but could also fit for bad, I'd need to double check LC/Marmot, and I know there was little to nothing for Marmot/Lorab. I feel Marmot is least likely to be civ of the two of them.

how did you come to these conclusions?

[nutella]

I'm confused, I thought I remembered Mac posting a case he wanted us to read and tell him our opinions on it. But now I can't find it so I am wondering if I have mixed him up with someone else.

hmm, are you sure you're not remembering Jay's case on LC during the d2 lynch?

[Sloonei]

Spoiler: show

My biggest beef here that I just can't get past is that in yesterday's lynch, no one (except Mac) asked why it was going down the way it did. The person who was lynched had 4 posts, one of which was only an emoji post. Three posts out of 19 pages of content and conversation. That is who was lynched. And after the lynch flip, no one seemed the least bit interested in discussing who voted for the person that flipped civ and why, or what votes looked bad. No one but me. So ask yourselves, why is that? The fact that conversation went immediately back to the same shit they talked about all day yesterday instead of focusing on the new information that could provide new basis of questioning and consideration says to me that at least one of the top three voices in this thread did not want to talk about that vote. And I could see it even being two of the top three with how quickly conversation about the vote was killed after the flip.

Sloonei was right in that my catching up did impact my view of him. I believe I see someone who was/is tunneling on Kyle, incorrectly I believe. And who was in a self preservation mode. I don't think he is the real reason Daisy 1.0 was lynched. My stream of consciousness post doesn't reflect this because that was just taking each post as it came,once I looked at the whole it changed my opinion. I actually agree with Jay's criticism of my thoughts on Sloonei's case. If Sloonei was bad he surely would have abandoned this by now.

Right now my eye is firmly on Jay. He changed his vote with barely any conversation. I just can't get over the fact that Jay voted for me, without any hesitation or discussion about the fact I said I was going to be gone, or that there were plenty of other good suspicions that were rolling around. It just doesn't look good to me at all. And I feel like he was a major contributor to shifting the focus back onto Kyle/Sloonei. his post after I flipped? "Oh well,plenty of time to regroup and review." And he has not really reviewed anything at all since then. He has done little more than retread old ground. I am super unimpressed with him.

Now I'm about to tinfoil on you all, so bear with me. I am eyeing Epi as his possible partner in the bs. Epi tried to tell me that I was in the thread and I watched Sloonei building a case on me but I didn't say anything. He actually tried to blame me for the fact I didn't post until right as the poll ended. I ask you, does anyone in here think that a civ or a baddie will sit and follow the thread, read a case being thrown at them, watch as the votes start piling on, and just not say anything? Even more, can anyone recall a time I have ever done that? Why would anyone do that?

Consider the two of them together, Day 1 Epi throws major shit at Jay, Jay throws back. They both take these definitive stances in thread, but do either of them vote for the other? Nope. Night 1, both of them do the same again. Each declaring they are going to vote for the other but where are the votes now? Not on either of them. Frankly it reads more like a bromance than real accusations. It looks like fun and games, not serious accusations.

I really believe Jay is bad. I feel that Epi or Sloonei is likely his partner based on how the thread went after Daisy 1.0 died. But I lean Epi on that more than Sloonei. I feel like they are keeping sloonei in this position to be possibly mislynched. I don't feel as confident in the teammates theory as I do about Jay being bad though. I think that is the best place to start.

Here is the way my rainbow currently looks:

Daisy 2.0
Kyle
Mac
Wilgy
Dyslexicon

FZ.
Long Con

Lorab
Marmot
NVN

Sloonei
Speed
Nutella

Epi
Jay

Thoughts on some of my yellows and oranges. Lorab, I guess I don't know why it is others are pinged by there, so I would welcome someone to share it with me. I don't have a read on either her or Marmot. I mean I could gut read Marmot a little higher, but I'm afraid it would be based on his emotional appeals and last time I went with that I lost the game for the civs in Phenon. NVN, nothing to base a read on. If this were a GTH I would say bad but only as a kind of default settting. I would love to hear more from him.

I have said enough about Sloonei. i contemplated whether he was an orange or a red, but I feel like he moved up a notch for me once I was past the initial shock of everything and then had time to read how it all went down. Speedchuck was a toughie, I would go back and forth with nearly every post I read from him. One post I would be like, yeah that sounds very civ minded. Only to be followed by a post that was super shady almost immediately. In the end it was his vote post that put him into the orange bracket for me. I don't like how he tried to avoid responsibility for anything, even the very vote he was placing as he placed it. No, that was shady man. Nutella feels more aggressive and more like baddie nutella to me. Her wanting to come in and vote Epi right off feels unlike her civ play. She is usually more open to hearing cases and information and considering everything. I don't see that here. I find that worrisome.

Dyslexicon, I don't see why so many people are bad reading her. Between her and Mac, everything they were saying was like my gut immediately responded with, yep that is a civ post. I am shocked by how many are finding her bad. I don't know if I have played with her before so is there something I am missing about her meta or something that is making people feel this way?

I've already explained where I am on Kyle. Mac I went back and forth between slight town read and strong town read. I only had trouble because every post he makes regarding things happening in the thread I get. It reads true and he says the stuff i can't understand why no one else is saying. My problem comes with the fact that his words don't line up with his actions. In the end though, I think that is more likely to be how a civ behaves than a baddie. civs may go with their gut in the moment and make a poor choice even if they pointed out the problem before hand. But a baddie is going to want to look consistent, otherwise it makes people question them. Finally Wilgy, this is a complete tone read for me. In a recent game I kept thinking how weird I thought Wilgy was acting, but no one else seemed to think so. I dismissed it and guess who turned out to be bad? Wilgy. I don't get the same vibe from him here and feel really comfortable putting him as a solid green.

I guess the only two left are FZ and LC. IT's kind of funny, I have the same problem with both of them. They seem to really be picking apart how people are wording things. It may be because I have been the one to have how I worded something picked apart. I put very little stock in it, because I think it's rarely an indication of anything. The difference between the two is FZ felt more sincere to me in how she was reading something into Kyle's posts on Day 1. I lean slight town on her. LC I pretty much felt no read on until his case on Speedchuck. Maybe my problem with LC is I don't get him very well, we rarely seem to think alike. When we do I find it reassuring. I'm not sure if that's a good thing or not though lol.

Well there you go folks. All my thoughts. From both before I replaced in and up to the present.

This is the first time Daisy2.0 mentions either LC or LoRab. Her read of LoRab is a shrug with an invitation for others to share their reads with her. I don't object too strongly to her. There wasn't much content available from LoRab at the time and I don't think anybody had a firm read on her at this point. She gives a tentative scum-seeming read on LC, but lists him as the lightest shade of green on her rainbow. I can see some genuine townie reflection in here, but the wishywashy nature of both of Daisy's reads on the now-dead scum can be read as cautious scummy fence-sitting. I'd probably lean town on her here though.

I'm voting for LoRab

Interesting, why Lorab?

"Interesting". what was "interesting" about my decision to vote for LoRab, daisy? Pretend I asked this in Epignosis' voice.
Daisy ultimately decided to vote for nutella this day. Her justification and non-game distractions have already been discussed in some detail.

Spoiler: show

Alright, well I've been trying to keep up throughout the day while I was working. I took a nap when I got home and accidentally slept for three hours! :eep: I'm here now though, sorry guys. I'm going to try and post my thoughts about the people discussed today.

This day has been weird. Mac posted a request to read something about Marmot a while ago, I didn't at the time but I will go back and do that after I post here. Mainly because I don't quite understand why he is so sure of Marmot. I really haven't felt much of anything about Marmot. So maybe I'm missing something there. I'll post more on him once I read what Mac has said.

I would like to say I suspect Kyle, because everyone seems to think he and I are equally suspicious based on our actions, but I just don't. Everything Kyle says reads like sincere Kyle to me. Lorab's flip didn't change that. And the fact he isn't swung by self preservation just to say "It must be Daisy" either just makes me feel that much more like he is sincere and trying to find actual baddies.

I don't think Mac is bad, despite Marmot's no u. :shrugs:

This leaves me with LC. The thing I can't get past is Epi's case about the vote LC placed yesterday coupled with the fact Lorab didn't vote to save herself. I can't think of a single good reason not to vote to save yourself if you are in a lynch tied with a civ. No one would think less of someone who casts a self preservation vote. So why didn't she?

NVN, I don't know what to think of him. Nothing and then a bunch of posts in self defense. I didn't even think he (? correct me if I am wrong) was even actually playing. I was actually kind of worried the stuff in the early game had driven him off. I would say he would be a second suspect for me, the timing of the sudden activity combined with the voting shenanigans has me questioning. I still think I feel more confident in LC though. I mean if NVN were bad, he could have kept right on laying low and it would have taken a while for PoE to get to him. I don't know. LC is more suspicious to me.

I'm going to go ahead and put a vote on LC and then go back and look at Mac's case again.

*Votes LC*

I don't love this post. I almost get a nervous sense from it. Daisy took a lot of time fumbling over people who might be suspects before she was "left with" LC. At this point, a teammate attempting to defend LC would be a giant red siren.gif, so in the universe where Daisy is scum she kind of has to go along with LC's lynch. She defers to other people's cases as if they are irrefutable as justification for her LC vote, but surrounds this commentary with a lot of waffly reads on others: "I would to sasy I suspect Kyle, but I just don't"; "I don't know what to think of NVN"; and that whole first paragraph about the Mac/Marmot relationship doesn't seem to go anywhere. In making this accusation, I am reminded of my own justification for voting Daisy Day 1, so that's something to be careful of. Still, this is not an extremely encouraging post. There was very little mention of either LC or LoRab prior to the hear against either of them. Daisy appeared to make an attempt to interact with the LoRab case, but never followed up on it at all. She mostly seems to have ignored LC until he had one foot in the grave. Not a totally inspiring look, and based solely on these relationships I could see Daisy as scum.

I see her in the linki. I'll go ahead and post this anyway and then see what she's saying.

[Kylemii]

Hm I should have waited until right before end of night to say that since it opens the door for framing wifom bullshit. Whatevs

I'll try protecting you by adding a second layer of wifom to protect you. *clears throat*

If I were the last remaining mafia, I would absolutely kill Marmot next, because killing Marmot is my favorite thing to do. I killed marmot first in the jester game because it felt great to do. It wasn't even for strategic purposes. Yeah. Boy, I'll tell ya. Nothing can compare to the pure adrenaline rush I get specifically from night-killing Marmot, or maybe novaselinever.

wtf is the purpose of this post my dude

you may not know this about me yet but sometimes i make jokes, LA

also if the mafia takes the bait and kills marmot then we don't have to deal with him trying to get himself lynched and then we have one less player in the process of elimination pool.

it's probably just wishful thinking, but it's cool when it works

[Sloonei]

I think it's interesting that there's been so much fringe attention paid to Marmot and Mac today. LC is the consensus top suspect, Daisy and NVN have received a good deal of scrutiny, and I've been loudly hanging onto my Kyle thing. But nearly all of the focus once you get past those names has been on that M&M pairing. The two of them have been pointing at each other since last night, Long Con came in pushing Mac as his top suspect, and NVN is pushing the two of them as suspects after Long Con. It's too soon to know what to make of it exactly, but it's something I want to make note of now so it can be looked into later on when we have more solid information to work with.

Sloonei, do you feel like the focus on Mac/Marmot was a distraction then on the part of NVN and LC? Or are you thinking there was some distancing going on, or what? What exactly did you find interesting about this? And how do you think the LC flip affects the fact they got so much attention yesterday?

More on my reading when I am done.

At this point I see it as an alternative angle to LC's lynch, which we know was pushed by at least one scum (LC himself) and could have been at least loosely picked up by this partner. This could implicate NVN or Marmot. I think it could also implicate you, unfortunately. Or LC was just being opportunistic when the Mac/Marmot drama crept into the thread.

[Spacedaisy]

[mention]nutella[/mention], Aside from his back and forth with Mac, I've never really felt like there was much in the way of anything concrete from Marmot, which reads to me more likely as a 3P. Uninvested in civ win or loss, but wanting to stay alive. Being less concrete in a stance allows him to be less threatening to both other factions. Less likely to die. But there is the chance that could just be Marmot being Marmot, I can't discount the possibility of civ or mafia completely with him. Still lean 3P though, all things considered.

Mac on the other hand seems to be actually putting content into the thread which is concrete, strong stances, attempting to game solve. I find it unlikely he is bad, he could be 3P. If I were 3P, I would be playing as much like a civ as I could, while trying not to be too big a threat, so I could see him possibly being 3P. More likey civ in my mind though.

[Marmot]

Good job y'all. Sorry I was afk. What's happening this time?

we're lynching drwilgy.

I don't think we are close to Lylo. I'm ok with this if it makes for an easier game.

Too late man. I'm already lynched tomorrow.

No you're not. Help us catch the last baddie.

My actions in this game have contributed nothing there thus far, that is unless Mac is bad.

But if I have time tomorrow, I'll try.

[Sloonei]

I think we're in a place where Operation Trust Fall would be beneficial.

[Kylemii]

what is "operation trust fall"?

[Sloonei]

what is "operation trust fall"?

You coined the term! this thing

[Spacedaisy]

"Interesting". what was "interesting" about my decision to vote for LoRab, daisy? Pretend I asked this in Epignosis' voice.

Interesting in that I didn't feel like I had a read on Lorab and I wanted to know more.

I don't love this post. I almost get a nervous sense from it. Daisy took a lot of time fumbling over people who might be suspects before she was "left with" LC. At this point, a teammate attempting to defend LC would be a giant red siren.gif, so in the universe where Daisy is scum she kind of has to go along with LC's lynch. She defers to other people's cases as if they are irrefutable as justification for her LC vote, but surrounds this commentary with a lot of waffly reads on others: "I would to sasy I suspect Kyle, but I just don't"; "I don't know what to think of NVN"; and that whole first paragraph about the Mac/Marmot relationship doesn't seem to go anywhere. In making this accusation, I am reminded of my own justification for voting Daisy Day 1, so that's something to be careful of. Still, this is not an extremely encouraging post. There was very little mention of either LC or LoRab prior to the hear against either of them. Daisy appeared to make an attempt to interact with the LoRab case, but never followed up on it at all. She mostly seems to have ignored LC until he had one foot in the grave. Not a totally inspiring look, and based solely on these relationships I could see Daisy as scum.

I see her in the linki. I'll go ahead and post this anyway and then see what she's saying.

Something you have to understand about LC is that I rarely read him right so I don't trust myself there. I actually think I felt him more a slight orange feel when I came back in originally, but his case against speedchuck swayed me to move him to slight green because I was having trouble with speedchuck myself. I struggle with him because he latches on to things I rarely think mean anything. He picks people's wording apart and builds cases on that civ or mafia alike and I can never get a handle on him as a result because I have been one to fall victim to a stupid argument regarding how I word things. It makes me tend to read him bad. I've come to recognize that and it leaves me more uncertain about him most of the time. I usually get him wrong. Meh. I wasn't nervous, not sure why you got that from this post. I'm sorry you saw it as fumbling, could be because I am trying to realign my thoughts after the last day I guess.

[Kylemii]

what is "operation trust fall"?

You coined the term! this thing

hell yes. validation.

i love getting credit for naming things that I forgot about.

let's do this.

[Spacedaisy]

we're also going to have to figure out what to do with NVN sooner or later. He seems to be stretched pretty thin mafia-wise, and it doesn't appear that he's going to dump a load of content on us any time soon. His spot seems doomed to sit around in single-digit posts for this game. As the POE pool continues to shrink, his spot does not budge.

The only info I would have is that I think you guys are right about LC, but wrong about him. He reads Mafia and I don't see any case being made of him as Town

Mac 2nd Mafia/3rd Party
Marmot 2nd Mafia/3rd Party

I'm interested in these reads, NVN. You list them both as potentially being either mafia or 3rd party. what stands out about these two, and which do you think is more likely to be mafia, and which is more likely to be 3rd party?

I've been following their quarrel since the beginning of the game. There isn't a lot of substance behind it, it just felt like two scum going at each other and trying to gain Town credits by lynching a scum.
I'm leaning towards Macdougall being the Mafia and Marmot being the 3rd Party. I didn't like how he put his vote on Marmot early D1. His whole reasoning was based on the fact that he usually find Mafia that are missed by most people. He even admitted that Marmot's content read Town but his scum read was a gut feeling lol.

*looks at poll*

I think I missed this when it happened. NVN, did you explain why you thought Mac was bad, Marmot 3P but your vote went to Marmot instead of Mac?

[nutella]

nutella, Aside from his back and forth with Mac, I've never really felt like there was much in the way of anything concrete from Marmot, which reads to me more likely as a 3P. Uninvested in civ win or loss, but wanting to stay alive. Being less concrete in a stance allows him to be less threatening to both other factions. Less likely to die. But there is the chance that could just be Marmot being Marmot, I can't discount the possibility of civ or mafia completely with him. Still lean 3P though, all things considered.

Mac on the other hand seems to be actually putting content into the thread which is concrete, strong stances, attempting to game solve. I find it unlikely he is bad, he could be 3P. If I were 3P, I would be playing as much like a civ as I could, while trying not to be too big a threat, so I could see him possibly being 3P. More likey civ in my mind though.

OK, fair.

I also felt like his "lynch me tomorrow so I can focus elsewhere and you guys can keep supatowning" was more or less a 3p claim. Very Marmot-style (and legal). He's totally a jester.

[nutella]

what is "operation trust fall"?

You coined the term! this thing

I didn't like that exercise in mountains and refused to participate, though I think part of it was out of laziness/because I have a hard time articulating some town reads, and I think that's part of the entire point of the exercise. Maybe I should try it, but I won't have time until later tonight.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think I missed this when it happened. NVN, did you explain why you thought Mac was bad, Marmot 3P but your vote went to Marmot instead of Mac?

I'll also note the timing:

NVN's vote made the tally 4 votes for LC and 3 votes for Marmot.

[Spacedaisy]

I honestly could and would vote for any of these three who have votes. I'm going to leave my vote on Marmot for now because I am happy to see any of them lynched and I'd like for him to remain a viable lynch.

Linki: Is the eyeroll because Marmot is good or because you think that post is very maphier?

It's posts like these that have made me feel like Mac is civ. The game is littered with these type of posts from Mac. I feel like even when he arrives at different reads than me, his approach/mind set always seems consistently civ to me.

[Sloonei]

what is "operation trust fall"?

You coined the term! this thing

hell yes. validation.

i love getting credit for naming things that I forgot about.

let's do this.

I can't be around to oversee it during the night phase though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Bringing the final Day 2 poll back for good measure. The lead wagons were mafia-mafia.

Spoiler: show

Who could have been killing on the Sabbath (but wasn't)?

Poll ended at Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:04 amPlease note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

Daisy
1
6%


Voters: Kylemii

Dizzy
0
No votes


Voters: None

Epi
2
12%


Voters: LoRab, Marmot

FZ
0
No votes


Voters: None

JJJ
1
6%


Voters: Dyslexicon

Kyle
1
6%


Voters: DrWilgy

LC
4
24%


Voters: Epignosis, MacDougall, JaggedJimmyJay, FZ.

Lorab
4
24%


Voters: Long Con, speedchuck, nutella, Sloonei

Mac
0
No votes


Voters: None

Marmot
0
No votes


Voters: None

NVN
0
No votes


Voters: None

Nutella
1
6%


Voters: Spacedaisy

Sloonei
0
No votes


Voters: None

Speed
0
No votes


Voters: None

Wilgy
0
No votes


Voters: None

Tevye's Fourth Daughter (Host/dead/non)
3
18%


Voters: DFaraday, dunya, MovingPictures07


Total votes: 17

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I honestly could and would vote for any of these three who have votes. I'm going to leave my vote on Marmot for now because I am happy to see any of them lynched and I'd like for him to remain a viable lynch.

Linki: Is the eyeroll because Marmot is good or because you think that post is very maphier?

It's posts like these that have made me feel like Mac is civ. The game is littered with these type of posts from Mac. I feel like even when he arrives at different reads than me, his approach/mind set always seems consistently civ to me.

What is it about that post that you like? I could argue that Mac left himself an opening to drive at least two lynches other than Long Con in that post.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Kyle voted off-wagons on Day 2, happily leaving the decision to the rabbi. Now we know that the tiebreaker decision hardly mattered. Do we think Kyle would have bailed on lynching either of his two teammates at least for the "deciding vote" credit? It didn't matter which one.

He's an ultra-careful player, but that'd seem more silly than careful to me if he's bad.

[Spacedaisy]

I honestly could and would vote for any of these three who have votes. I'm going to leave my vote on Marmot for now because I am happy to see any of them lynched and I'd like for him to remain a viable lynch.

Linki: Is the eyeroll because Marmot is good or because you think that post is very maphier?

It's posts like these that have made me feel like Mac is civ. The game is littered with these type of posts from Mac. I feel like even when he arrives at different reads than me, his approach/mind set always seems consistently civ to me.

What is it about that post that you like? I could argue that Mac left himself an opening to drive at least two lynches other than Long Con in that post.

LOL, see this is where my way of thinking seems to cause trouble. I read that and I think, yeah you could easily leave LC in the lead and cast a vote to keep pressure on others and see how they and other voters respond to it. This was not the end of the lynch, there was still time. With LC having a huge lead there is little to gain from it. It is an easy move for a baddie to bus their teammate, suspicion of LC wasn't going anywhere. We can't really thin out our PoE pool from that lynch because a vote cast for LC doesn't mean much when he loses 9-2-1. I see a civ mindset in his wanting to keep pressure on someone else he suspected. But my brain works backwards from other people's sometimes it seems.

[Spacedaisy]

I have to go to work in half an hour too, so I probably will have to finish this reading when I get home.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

LOL, see this is where my way of thinking seems to cause trouble. I read that and I think, yeah you could easily leave LC in the lead and cast a vote to keep pressure on others and see how they and other voters respond to it. This was not the end of the lynch, there was still time. With LC having a huge lead there is little to gain from it. It is an easy move for a baddie to bus their teammate, suspicion of LC wasn't going anywhere. We can't really thin out our PoE pool from that lynch because a vote cast for LC doesn't mean much when he loses 9-2-1. I see a civ mindset in his wanting to keep pressure on someone else he suspected. But my brain works backwards from other people's sometimes it seems.

I don't necessarily disagree. I'm just making sure you're not making things up.

[Spacedaisy]

She's dead.

And his other teammate has given him to the wolves.

Who might that be ?

U

I don't think so but it could be.

I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.

I'd lynch a couple of people before kyle.

I'd be like

Kyle/Marmot/nutella/Nova

Pretty sure everyone else is a civ. Don't particularly care in what order those are lynched.

Did I miss you saying why you have nutella in here, Mac? She is one I would not vote today, considering Lorab's flip.

[Spacedaisy]

I actually just finished faster than I expected and I did not find what I was looking for so perhaps nutella is right that I was confusing it with something from earlier, I really don't know now. But it was interesting to read yesterday's lynch over again. Now I have to get ready for work, I'll be back later after I get home. I may try to read while I am working, but we'll see.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Long Con and Kylemii

Spoiler: show

Kyle is with the Russian Police. Discuss.

He is? What is there to discuss then, let's string him up!

Civvie BTSC is the most powerful thing... or at least Civvie-Civvie knowledge. Confirming Civs is one of the best things we can do to win the game.

...second of all you've never even seen me play as mafia before, the only player in recent history who has is dunya and even then it was just one game under unique circumstances, not enough to build correlation from

This section is sketchy, Kyle, it reads like it's written by someone with a mafia alignment. "you've never even seen me play as mafia before" implies you're mafia now, and the statement that there's "not enough to build correlation from" implies that there could be enough at some point, but if you're Civ, then the idea would be that "correlation is impossible because I'm not bad."

Long Con jumped joyfully on my fake tell and then griped at Kyle for his response to it with this language-driven manipulation. This is bullshit, and looks like LC smearing a civilian who is already frustrated.

I gave LC shit for that and he backed away from the accusation both in response to me and Kyle himself. Kyle identified a shady crop job from LC which made his post look worse than it was, and LC was forced to recant.

I already think Kyle is not his teammate.

LC promptly cleared Kyle after the latter provided some concerns about Sloonei. LC realized continuing to poke Kyle would be a losing game after the fake tell controversy had subsided other than Sloonei, and he shifted his focus to the other civilian in the dialogue (Sloonei).

Spoiler: show

@Kylemii

You shouldn't vote me because the case against me is that I didn't give special insight into the JJJ/Epi fight, and that I asked Epi to clarify "hedging", and that I didn't accuse FZ when she accused me.

I'm not bad and these reasons are not enough to kill me over.

"Kyle, my civilian last hope, you mustn't vote for me because this is how dumb Jay's case [not my case] is -- see look right here, isn't it so dumb?"

~~~

Conclusion -- I'm finished here. Kyle is removed from the POE pool.

[Sloonei]

At the moment I think I'd pick between daisy and marmot for tomorrow, but I'm hardly sure on that.

[Kylemii]

Operation Trust Falls:

Epi: was strongly pushed by mafia member, unlikely.
Nutella: at many points I have found myself agreeing with Nutella on things, she's been assertive but also agreeable and that gives me good vibes
Wilgy: he's put forward an effort to contribute that I associate more with civ wilgy than bad wilgy
Kylemii: he is very handsome and has huge muscles. It's impossible for him to do crime.
Dyslexicon: feels genuine to me, I think the advancement of their read on me is the exact opposite of how a solo mafia would want to go if they were preparing to use me as a mislynch, which would be basically necessary (along with 4 more) to win.
FZ: went after LC pretty hard and also early
JJJ: strict adherance to town meta, so very many isos.
Marmot: asks a lot of questions, reacts to stimuli, has no qualms about suspecting players other people don't suspect
Sloonei: strong pusher against both LC and LR, not very compatible with bussing, I also don't think any of what we went through together on day 1 would have realistically happened if Sloonei were mafia
SpaceDavey: when she came back into the game it felt as if we were seeing a return of the same player
Novaselinenever: was on the LC wagon earlier on in day 3
Mac; has endeavored to solve the game from unique angles

Outcomes:
Marmot was definitely the hardest to find reasons to trust. NVE was second place. Spacedaisy was also kind of hard since her reasons mostly amount to tone. The same is also maybe true with Mac, and Nut. Though I feel good about Nutella tone. I feel I can trust her. I also am not sure of some of the ones which are cleared only for going after long con, since his lynch was a landslide and was probably somewhat foreseeable.

It might be good to review the earlier polls again with the context that both LC and LR were mafia.

[Kylemii]

Kyle voted off-wagons on Day 2, happily leaving the decision to the rabbi. Now we know that the tiebreaker decision hardly mattered. Do we think Kyle would have bailed on lynching either of his two teammates at least for the "deciding vote" credit? It didn't matter which one.

He's an ultra-careful player, but that'd seem more silly than careful to me if he's bad.

I can tell you right now with 90% certainty that a mafia Kyle would have absolutely and very specifically bussed Long Con. Like... it wouldn't even be a question in my mind. I wouldn't even ask him about it, and he'd know what he'd done to deserve it.

[MacDougall]

And his other teammate has given him to the wolves.

Who might that be ?

U

I don't think so but it could be.

I'd lynch several people before Nova at this point.

I'd lynch a couple of people before kyle.

I'd be like

Kyle/Marmot/nutella/Nova

Pretty sure everyone else is a civ. Don't particularly care in what order those are lynched.

Did I miss you saying why you have nutella in here, Mac? She is one I would not vote today, considering Lorab's flip.

Nah I'm not even sure.

We should just all make lists of who we want to lynch in order then work out a consensus and vote together.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Long Con and MacDougall

Spoiler: show

I apologize for having emotions earlier, I will avoid that in the future.

Cool, I'm not there yet. Is it going to be awesome?

Also, at the point I'm at, Mac and nutella are sparring about the copied rainbow list. So far, I have felt like it makes them both look more bad, so I guess it's worth a reread tomorrow.

Casual, off-hand suspicion tossed in Mac's direction alongside nutella over his copy/paste of speedchuck's rainbow.

Spoiler: show

So is it genuinely in Epignosis's MO as Mafia to go after Jimmy on day 1 and put himself at risk like this?

He is now leading the votes. I don't like it. It looks like a potential mislynch to me. I am getting nam flashbacks to MK.

This post is ugly to me. In a Mac is bad and knows Epi is good, kind of way.

LC made a couple of TMI-type accusations in this game, first this one at Mac and later in the large case against speedchuck. The latter was civilian, so take that however you may.

Spoiler: show

That's rich coming from someone who didn't notice that my rainbow was copied from the previous page.

"wow, i can't believe you actually really believed i was telling the truth while i was obviously being purposefully deceptive for a weird joke"

I didn't post the rainbow list to make a joke. I posted the rainbow list to determine the level to which people were paying attention to see if I could analyse any level of collusion.

Has there been any analysis by Mac on collusion levels?

No because I didn't find any.

Looks like you just posted the rainbow list to be a shit-disturber, and made up this collusion test after to try and give it more validity.

Rainbow list copypasta gripes continued. LC pushed this point, though I don't know if he pursued it beyond talk.

Spoiler: show

A message from Avram:
LoRab and LC both seemed to want to push for Epignosis and didn't offer much criticism of each other.

That isn't accurate. I never wanted to push for Epignosis, I voted him for maybe two minutes when I thought it was the best chance to save my life. I had said nothing about Lorab because she hadn't really gotten involved with the game that much, it wasn't some kind of teammate-avoidance strategy.

who should we lynch today?

Why shouldn't it be Macdougall?

Sloonei asked Long Con who to lynch and got this question as an answer. I don't struggle to see the antagonism as distancing so far.

Spoiler: show

Well, right now it looks like he's shoehorning Marmot into lynch position for dubious reasons.

Do you read Marmot as town?

GTH yes. I haven't been pinged by him. Lazy play, despite what Macdougall is saying, isn't much of a baddie tell for Marmot.

Can you tell me more about why Macdougall is scum? Is it based entirely on his recent treatment of the marmot?

Actually, it is based on the recent stuff. I'm having some trouble with the two concurrent games running, and getting mixed up between them. This is something that currently looks suspicious.

This might be a bit better for Mac. LC couldn't entirely qualify his suspicion of Mac when pressed by Sloonei, and he moaned a bit about the challenge of playing in two games at once. I'd expect a distancing LC to be more concrete in his expression of suspicion.

Spoiler: show

why is "push Marmot" a viable scum strategy for Macdougall entering Day 3?

Attacking Marmot for lazy play, as if Marmot tends to be an overly-vocal, super-analytical player. Possibly ironic, because THAT looks like lazy play on Macdougall's part, going after Marmot for his extremely usual play.

I'm not sure this answers my question, so I'll rephrase: why does it make sense for macdougall, as scum, to pick Marmot of all people as his lynch target for the day?

I guess if I were a better Mafia player, I could figure out that answer. Unless it specifically makes NO sense, then it's a strategy a person could go with. If Marmot is Civ and Mac is bad, then it makes sense to try and get a Civ lynched, while also looking like you're doing some new, fresh hunting. In this instance, though, the new, fresh hunting looks stale.

LC kept at it with regard to Mac's suspicion of Marmot, claiming it was too easy and based upon a premise ignorant of Marmot's normal behavior. I tend to think that most of this stuff says more about Marmot than it says about Mac. I can note though that if Marmot is a civilian, then LC is completely blaming Mac ahead of time for that. There was no good reason to defend Marmot for the very same reasons LC was critical of Mac's suspicion of Marmot, but he did it anyway -- that's TMI on Marmot and perhaps preemptive setup on Mac. I could see them being civilian-civilian in that light (or at least not mafia-not mafia). If one of them is mafia, I think Mac is more likely.

Spoiler: show

I agree with your green reads Mac, save perhaps LC. I don't have much of a read there. What's your inspiration?

I could understand the rationality LC had with his posts that you seemed to disagree with. It's part of the reason I am suspicious of you.

At least some of Mac's early suspicion of me was driven by my handling of rationale provided by LC. Okay.

Spoiler: show

Looks like you just posted the rainbow list to be a shit-disturber, and made up this collusion test after to try and give it more validity.

Looks like that doesn't it.

Mac's response to LC's accusations re: the copypasta rainbow list were pretty disinterested. At least it doesn't look like your typical energized distancing effort. There's no drama.

Long Con is light green in the middle "gives some credence" group in this segmented rainbow. If nothing else I don't care for this method of presenting reads because it is pretty hard to tell what Mac actually thinks about these folks.

Mac is displeased with LC's turns on Kyle and Sloonei.

I think this is a decent catch, because there really wasn't sufficient justification for those turns and Mac should be credited for identifying this progression.

Spoiler: show

Found the most likely partnership so far. Kyle and Long Con. Speedchuck and Sloonei make no sense to be part of that team. The most likely partner to that team is nutella.

Kyle, Long Con & nutella?

I'm a bit bugged that the partnership Mac pushed for Long Con was the same one I consider highly unlikely -- Kylemii.

Spoiler: show

Long Con is a civilian and I am voting for speedchuck.

I don't think his post is anywhere near as good as you seem to do. It's precisely what I would expect scum Long Con to enter with on day 2 as a player who has attracted a little suspicion. Pick a player and make a wall post case for civ cred.

Furthermore... Im not sure civ Jay would be that easy to convince.

I was momentarily a doofus in response to LC's case against speedchuck case and Mac didn't agree. It's a somewhat decent look, though my tinfoil alerts are warning me that Mac was attempting to link me to his teammate.

Spoiler: show

Long Con does highlight some posts from speedchuck that are pingy. I felt at the time that he wasn't actually all that focused on the game but hand waved it somewhat as him coasting because he wasn't catching flak.

I would say his points have given me pause on speedchuck particularly given he was my number 1 gut civ read. When I analysed his interactions and found a good number of viable scum teammates I was quite surprised so now that there is some post analysis to his detriment I would be interested to see that lead explored more.

He didn't think LC's case against speedchuck was all crap though.

Long Con is dark green now in the segmented rainbow thing

???

Spoiler: show

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Got any priority suspects right now other than Marmot?

I wouldn't call them priority but I am still orange at best on Long Con, nutella and Nova. I am alright with this LC lynch.

To be honest Sloonei I started the analysis expecting better results. The outcome was rather underwhelming. Hence why I haven't done much with it.

Do you think marmot/lorab is a compelling pairing?

I wouldn't say compelling but they are compatible.

Not long after he's "orange at best". 'Kay.

~~~

Conclusion -- Clearly these two have interacted quite a lot in this game, and I think the results are a mixed bag. I noticed a few things that I liked, but I cannot claim they were strong points in Mac's favor. I also encountered things I didn't care for. I really don't know what was happening with that read at the end. He remains a tinfoil candidate.

[FZ.]

I forget, why are we so trusting of Dyslexicon given her voting record, other than a general civvie vibe?

linki: Sloonei, I would go with Neither Daisy nor Marmot. The more I read from Daisy, the better she looks to me, and MM could easily be the 3p but he doesn't strike me as bad. Nor does Wilgy or Kyle at the moment. So I'm left with either NVM or one of Mac and Dyslexicon

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I forget, why are we so trusting of Dyslexicon given her voting record, other than a general civvie vibe?

I think the best evidence is their early and frequent antagonism with LoRab.

[FZ.]

I forget, why are we so trusting of Dyslexicon given her voting record, other than a general civvie vibe?

I think the best evidence is their early and frequent antagonism with LoRab.

Okay, I don't recall that. Maybe it was when I went to sleep and neglected to catch up.

JJJ, as the expert in looking for posts, who was it that started the suspicion on the other? Mac on Marmot, or the other way around?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Okay, I don't recall that. Maybe it was when I went to sleep and neglected to catch up.

First mentioned here

LoRab answered Dizzy here and seemed to be only responsive instead of probing into her accuser (much like LC was in response to you).

JJJ, as the expert in looking for posts, who was it that started the suspicion on the other? Mac on Marmot, or the other way around?

Mac colors Marmot orange in a segmented rainbow thing on the evening of 18 January.

Wilgy and Marmot are totally cruising making jokes while a game is going on around them. Let's lynch one of them.

Mac turns it into a more concrete accusation an hour later.

Whose idea was it to create the false dilemma of lynching myself or DrWilgy because we are "cruising making jokes" when that is not what is happening.

I'm looking at you MacDougall.

Marmot's first mention of Mac is in direct response to the above, an hour after that. So it would seem Mac's accusation came first.