staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:18 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:12 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:07 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm
JaggedJimmyJay wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:45 pm
From a classical POE perspective, we'd presently need a pool of five. Congruently we'd need five non-self civilians. Can we get there? I have comfortable town reads on:
SPF
tutuu
Well, shit. That's as far as I get right now. If I allow myself to give more generous town credit and trust vaguer instincts, then I would go with Hally and nutella.
I would like your thoughts on Tutuu, if possible.
what's your plan to solve the game today? who do u feel the most comfortable w/being town right now?
I'm having *some* second thoughts about Tutuu and Jagged, and would like their answers to my 2 questions above.
Provided that I don't feel like something is off only then will I look more into the whole Hally + Thunal + Alison messes.
Right now something doesn't feel right to me, and while I do realize that's a similar feeling I had for Nova, one of the things I've said earlier on this game is I've been debating between more "methodical" and more "gut" play.
I want to lean on my gut a bit here again.
i'm finding myself in a similar position, in that i think very broadly that something is
off with this game. to be more specific, i'm having trouble locking down onto a solid scumread/suspicion, and that usually only happens to me when competent players are playing a good enough game to evade suspicion. that indicates to me that at least one of the players that i consider very "strong" in this game is scum (ie: sloonei/alison/jagged), and it's why i'm specifically digging into that pool
that said, i actually am feeling more okay about tutuu being town after reading the treehouse and seeing her attitude today. i like that she's specifically emphasizing that we ~shouldn't~ townread her for her frustration, and i also think that her refusal to out a read on me is something that's more likely to come from her as town than as scum. she struggled to read me a lot in radiohead mafia, and i can see a natural progression from that game to her just saying: "ill let the other people read spf" in this game
i vibe with the top paragraph ftr. carotte being town has shaken my confidence in the consensus we had D1. the closest i can come to a scum read is sloonei rn, but even then something is stopping me from feeling as confident in it as i did with carotte
tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:24 pm
MartinGG99 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:19 pm
tutuu wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:16 pm
Martin pls control + f "alison" in the quick topic and the last 2 pages of this thread, i really dont feel like rewriting stuff ive written, im sorry!
So you're admitting that many of the arguments made for your change of opinion on Alison are from others?
In fact, you even said this in the QT:
I think Alison is town because she always seems to get herself scumread and in the PoE as town except that one time in Radiohead where she tryharded because she got pissed of it happening. If she's Mafia here she's playing poorly and I have trust in her that she would play her hearts out if she was Mafia.
Yes i was assuming carotte will flip scum. Alison looks bad then. She had a lot of w/w equity with carotte
Carotte flipping town made me think - looks like alison isnt in that bad of a position after all, which was the cause of my townread
I made this exact post on this day phase a few hours ago martin
wait, i’m confused. the thing martin quoted about you wanting to tr alison was from the treehouse qt, right? so that was before carotte had flipped town. but now you’re saying that carotte flipping town made you tr alison? but you already tr her in the qt before carotte flipped. and now you also say she could be scum? or what? i really don’t get what you’re saying here
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:55 pm
Sloonei wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:29 pm
I'm leaving in a half hour. I won't be here for the final hour, so any last minute vote maneuvering for the protection will be out of my hands.
I can put a vote on Carot. That seems to be the consensus, at least, and I don't have reason to object. But I would like to present other options just in case, so I may look for a couple of alternatives. I still have a phantom vote on LC and would not mind it if his name remained in the conversation, though there is probably even less substance in his posts than Carot's.
I have grown suddenly wary of Alison in the last few minutes. It might just be indigestion. I don't know.
I'm suspicious of this post. I keep having mixed feelings on Sloonei this game but I misread that Sloonei put himself in a bad position with the Carotte elim. If he's scum he tried to put himself in a better position. Here it looks like he was hedging on purpose and not trying to take accountability. He wasn't really pushing Carotte and this "I don't have reason to object" feels like he doesn't want to get his hands dirty.
yeah
Sloonei wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:19 pm
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:53 pm
I think I'm just going to start tinfoiling everyone right now.
Nutella saying that Sloonei was lolcatting is a pretty clear misrep, he was barely there at all and certainly didn't make any jokes or flail like a caught scum. I don't really understand how town viewing that same chat could come to that conclusion (maaaaybe if they're heavily confbiased). I think I'm going to have to reevaluate pretty completely since Hally and Nutella were two of my top townreads but now I have some reason to think both of them are suspicious - and at the same time Alison's push on me seems like a losing one if she's mafia so she's actually looking a little better.
Thunal33 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:30 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:59 pm
Long Con wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:56 pm
nutella wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:54 pm
I am exaggerating a bit when I say sloonei was lolcatting, but he really did not post any serious content and seemed completely flippant about the night vote. He really felt detached in the way a deflated scum would.
Why would he be deflated? Town was yeeted.
Because he knew carotte's flip would cement him as the next priority suspect? I feel like that's pretty obvious
If he knew that all along why did he push for Carotte's elim? Why would scum!Sloonei be content with a status quo that heavily implicates him as scum after the Carotte town flip he knew would happen? And I just kind of feel like Sloonei would take more pride in his scum game than this and make more effort to get the suspicion off of him if he's scum, while as town he might want to address it but let his towniness speak for himself (projecting what I would do onto Sloonei since I don't know him).
Part of me feels like Thunal is trying too hard to paint my posts in a negative light, like a wolf trying desperately to keep the Sloonei paranoia going, but then I also read posts like these ones and they make me feel Not That.
Reading my posts again I'm feeling like maybe you are town. "Content with the status quo" really does describe your post saying you would go along with voting Carotte since you didn't have an opinion on them. If you were scum trying to get yourself in a good position with the Carotte flip your reaction definitely wasn't the way to do that. Still really unsure on you, I feel like there's points going both ways. In my post about you pushing for Carotte's elim, I was sort of playing devil's advocate and I didn't townread you. I do feel like you would take more action or try something more than voting Carotte because you don't object if you were scum and you knew you would look bad off a Carotte town flip.
[/quote]
i feel like this is just a twtbaw argument though. like isn’t it just saying “sloonei wouldnt do this scummy thing if he was scum”?
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:08 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:06 pm
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:01 pm
NANOOKTHEGREATANDFEARSOME wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:11 pm
Caveat that I’m not sure how many scum teams think this way but
It’s almost always better for scum in that situation to send town unless SPF is mafia. So very good chance that Hally and SPF are aligned, and because carot was shot and flipped green, very good chance they’re both town.
Caveat that I’m not sure how many teams think this way, so it’s not like...not 100% locked in. But high likelihood imo.
I don't understand why you think this way so I can't assume that the mafia team does too.
Carot is town and SPF is mafia -> better to send second mafia most of the time, makes sure that town dies
Carot is town and SPF is town -> better to send third town, makes sure that town dies
There’s obviously some amount of uncertainty in this cause it’s not immediately clear how many mafia will think about it this way, and there’s some room for playing suboptimally on purpose even if they do/did think about it this way
First one a bit less weight with Hally being the person sent by mafia given she’s maybe the least likely in this game to even consider a hero shot
Still something I’m considering tho
ftr i would never shoot spf regardless of my alignment lol
Alison wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:09 pm
I'm caught up.
I'm not going to rewrite my case on Hally and Thun. I'm not really sure how to feel about JJJ constantly going back and forth on Sloonei when he has a reputation for being able to lock in a hard read on Sloonei early - I think that's some evidence pointing towards Sloonei scum intentionally subverting his own scum meta to throw JJJ off the scent, maybe.
Hally/Thun/Sloonei is definitely my POE right now. I said yesterday that I was giving Sloonei space to breathe (as JJJ asked) and it's been a mixed bag. Some of his content is genuinely good, other bits are questionable (his N1 quicktopic behavior, as others have pointed out).
I trust tutuu. I think the stuff about how we shouldn't townread her for her emotion is town-indicative because it smells of feeling slighted or like people are underestimating your scum game because of how fast they townread you. Scum tutuu just accepts the emotion read (which is pretty common in games involving tutuu) and moves on.
I trust nutella. I trust JJJ. I trust SPF.
That's where I'm at right now.
linki: It matters because it affects who the mafia can and can't NK.
i acknowledge your case on me but i don’t feel like there’s anything i can address in it because it’s based on the assumption thun is wolf, which i just don’t think is the case atm. why am i mafia outside of the thun stuff?