Grasslands [Game Thread]

[tutuu]

God damn it i cant stop thinking about it. My body is vibrating rn. Like. I wanna do it. Guys its not fun to always be proper and follow the rules. Its fun to be mischievous from time to time and cause trouble. PLEASE can we all start spamming at d5 eod. Please

<----- look at those eyes

How can u say no?

[Thunal33]

maybe kill alison if sloonei is town

FMPOV (knowing I'm town) there has to be two deepwolves embedded in the towncore if Sloonei is town. I don't mind if you all want to clear the last person in the POE after but it's by no means curtains in that scenario that happens. You'll just have to figure out which two wolves would allow their scum buddy to die when I was a viable misexe on D2.

I actually believe that if Sloonei is town, there are two deepwolves. I guess Martin is another possibility where he's not actually cleared, he just seems really towny. But I've been feeling Martin is town all game so I'm not considering that unless Sloonei flips town, then it will be chaos from my PoV as I tinfoil literally everyone.

[Thunal33]

I keep on feeling like there has to be some solution to all of our concerns or tinfoils here. I'm not opposed to compromising with others if it means they get to check out if their X hypothetical tinfoil world exists.

Personally in my beliefs and/or scum-read that 2 scum are in nook/sloonei/tutuu I feel fairly confident that's the right thing.

But we have 2 miseliminations till a situation where we have to correctly eliminate a mafia. With my 3 suspects theory, there's max 1 town (or miselimination there).

So, theoretically speaking, we can do a free elimination at any point outside my 3 suspects and it would be 100% fine if I'm right on that theory of 2 scum in the three suspects.

Better yet, if somehow an elimination outside of my 3 suspects is a red flip then obviously I am very much wrong....unless you're suggesting to eliminate me lol, but I would be open to a miselimination of me only if it furthered the persuasiveness my reads on the game-state.

(Yes, this is suggestive of info-elimination for which I got flak for before and probably will again)

However, considering that extra elimination could be used any time and right now I don't feel like enticing an Alison elimination unless we're doing it D4 (even though I believe she's 100% town).

~9 posts left for me.

How about instead, we don't do the "lock in the 3 person PoE" strategy? I'm getting a lot of deja vu from the last game I played where we had a scum flip D2, locked in a PoE that turned out to be three townies, and the last two wolves were exactly the two people we thought were most cleared from the scum flip.

[Thunal33]

long con: i've been trying to figure out whether or not long con's "i am super detached from this game"-style of playing was coming from a genuine place or not. something that inclines me to think that long con isn't using their disinterest as an excuse to be lazy is the fact that they are still outing reads/thoughts in spite of being in a position where they don't ~have~ to make them. in particular, i like long con bringing attention to carotte's lack of stances on #470, because i noticed the same thing in my own readthrough. i would gth townread long con because of that

Trustfall:
long con: long con feels like they are barely part of this game, and they seem genuinely unconcerned w/the pressure being put on them. they have also outed a couple of reads that looked good in the moment (ie: the scumread on carotte on d1.) i would expect scum to be more concerned with the state of the game

distrustfall:
long con: long con has not advanced the gamestate in any meaningful way, and his primary push on day one (carotte) ended up being town. i see very little evidence in long con's posts that he is genuinely trying to parse the game

Here's some SPF quotes about LC. I noticed that they didn't interact with each other or ask each other questions until the N2 treehouse, which is interesting. I really don't know what to gather from this but I said yesterday I would find SPF interactions with LC so here they are.

[Thunal33]

Wait, what if Nutella didn't die because it is Nutella? Nut and LC could have bussed really hard (well, bussing for Nut and distancing for LC).

What if it's really a Nutella and SPF team and we're very wrong about everything?

-this post made for the purpose of saying "I called it!" when the game ends incase of this happening-

[tutuu]

now i think the wolf team is spf + hally. im channeling my inner iaafr

[tutuu]

thunal this is ur fault

[Thunal33]

I'm feeling pretty okay about jay so far actually, and am inclined to listen to him re giving Sloonei more time. Switching my pseudo scum vote to carotte

Even though Sloonei has received 90% of your scumreads in the game at this point, you give up responsibility for that read to JJJ, and vote alongside him on the Carotte wagon.

I don't care about this, Hally is clearly supportive enough of the carotte elim to claim equal credit in it.

I do agree with this, and I think this is a black mark on Alison's record. It looks like she is throwing shade for an action that looked reasonable and logical to me. Alison is normally overly logical. Her reaction doesn't sit right with me.

------

You townread Alison, and then less than an hour later, you give a hedgey analysis of her here:

eh, I don't know that I particularly townread her for any specific reason, I'm just not willing to say I scumread her either. I hate to say null but she's kinda just.... Alison so far.

...and then the next time you mention her, she's lower than Sloonei in your rainbow:

@nutella where are you at with your reads generally?

spf
tutuu
nova
thunal
jay
hally
martin
lc
nanook
sloonei
alison
carotte

ish

Lower than Sloonei, who still dwarfs your other suspicions in terms of volume. Where did this sudden Alison suspicion come from? The only explanation I can see is "I also think Thunal is town and Alison's push on her is bad, but whether it's misguidedly bad or maliciously bad remains to be determined."

How did that put Alison lower than Sloonei, who you devoted many posts to suspecting? Were you just copying SPF's list? She had the same bottom three, and when she posted it, you made a point of saying you would move Alison up a bit, but when you made a similar list a few hours later, the bottom three are identical.

LC is going a long way to point out Nutella's inconsistencies. I find it much easier to point out inconsistencies of a teammate than I do to point out inconsistencies of a townie as scum. This feels really nitpicky from LC and the value of him pushing someone who's so deep in the towncore that hard is to discredit her suspicion on him, but he goes a long way to do that and makes Nutella look really good from his (at that point quite likely) flip.

Then immediately after the yeet:

oh no im not dead


oh no carot was town???


ugh


well at least im pretty dang sure sloonei is mafia

he basically lolcatted in night chat

Suddenly it's right back to Sloonei pressure. You just gave up the Sloonei pressure, which was heavy, toward the end of the day.

I found this to be a pertinent contrast as well:

fwiw i don't think it'll be super fruitful to analyze nova's reads since i think he was a good kill choice precisely because his reads weren't very developed and yet he was a pretty universal townread. that's pretty much an optimal kill target -- someone who is commonly accepted as town, but who didn't actually provide a ton of content for us to delve in and analyze as motivation/spew.

why does scum!sloonei shoot nova? that strikes me as a bad kill for sloonei to make because nova was one of the few people town reading sloonei and he also scum read alison iirc, the person sloonei is now pushing. so if sloonei is mafia, he made his life harder by killing nova over someone like nut who is pushing him way more and was just as town read N1

For someone who's so keen on Sloonei pressure, the disparity between your and Hally's opinion on the nova kill is notable. It looks like you either don't want to give up your tunnel on Sloonei, or you are more focused on presenting a suspicious-of-Sloonei front, and not really trying to make all the balanced analyses, just the ones that bolster your agenda.

Back to attacking Sloonei, in the next post. I used my quote instead of yours because you never responded to my question. This is actually the exact point that I decided to look more closely at your posts - you hadn't had much attention yet compared to other players, and this post pinged me.

LC is very nitpicky on Nutella. Last game I played after I died I caught one of the remaining two scum by realizing that the accusation made by the flipped wolf ("I just came off a game where you were town, and I haven't seen the similarities") was way easier to direct at a teammate than at a townie. This would be a very detailed and nitpicky case to make on a townie.

I still don't get why it's obvious.

Ok, I'm going to bed. At this point, nutella is a good suspect. I want to run Sloonei's ISO against nutella to see what it looks like from that perspective, but nutella's treatment of Sloonei is worthy of scrutiny.

There's a final page of nutella's ISO yet to read.

I feel like there's an argument to be made that they're teammates because of the sheer amount of attention LC focuses on Nutella (more than any other player in the game), and that LC pushed Nutella when his flip looked plausible. To be clear I don't fully believe this, I'm just making sure we check all the possibilities since I've been having the feeling there are deepwolves all game. I'm actually feeling better about SPF rn, her tone and interaction analyses look really genuine and I just reread them.

[Thunal33]

thunal this is ur fault

[Thunal33]

New idea: what if we give Hally the gun? I just really feel like they're town at this point. SPF too probably but I'm most confident in Hally. Actually I take my mega tinfoil read back, Nutella and SPF are never a team since SPF had a few nitpicky problems with Nut/LC's interactions and I feel like she would have cleared Nut as confidently as everyone else did if they were teammates.

[Thunal33]

I have now considered every living player as a suspect at some point in the game. No matter who the scum are I can say I totally nailed them.

[tutuu]

I have now considered every living player as a suspect at some point in the game. No matter who the scum are I can say I totally nailed them.

same. high five

if we lose this game we can blame other people for throwing and point towards our correct reads

if we win - same

[Thunal33]

I think a Sloonei scum flip would clear Nutella beyond any reasonable doubt. There's no way Nutella would have bussed both her teammates that hard. But in the case of a Sloonei town flip I just might go that direction.

[tutuu]

whoever are the last 2 wolves they are doing a damn good job imo

even sloonei if he's wolf is making me sweat super hard. alison if wolf too. and anyone else, if wolf, would kinda blow my mind

[tutuu]

Spoiler: show

[Thunal33]

I think a Sloonei scum flip would clear Nutella beyond any reasonable doubt. There's no way Nutella would have bussed both her teammates that hard. But in the case of a Sloonei town flip I just might go that direction.

Also I've calmed down and I'm not doing super mega tinfoil reads anymore unless Sloonei flips town. I probably will have to reconsider these tinfoil worlds if Sloonei is town since I don't think it's just an Alison/Martin team in that case, but I think there's a decent chance Sloonei flips scum. NKA fails me often so I'm not using it as the sole criteria for towniness or giving it a lot of weight. I think Alison's post about seeing Sloonei vent (that's what I remember most from it lol) makes a lot of sense.

[MartinGG99]

Maybe my reason to townread nook is dumb

Whatever it is it’s accurate so don’t worry about it

That is like the most visually confusing sentence I've seen in awhile

whatever it is it is accurate so don't worry about it

"it is it is"

like how tf did English evolve to a point where we can understand what a pattern of two words "it is it is" means in a sentence

[Thunal33]

@anyone is Nutella a busser? Is LC a busser?

[MartinGG99]

Here's some SPF quotes about LC. I noticed that they didn't interact with each other or ask each other questions until the N2 treehouse, which is interesting. I really don't know what to gather from this but I said yesterday I would find SPF interactions with LC so here they are.

To be fair it would appear I've had bad interactions with LC and yet I'm town (unless you believe I'm not)

So I kinda have to imagine other towns or people might just waltz into having bad interactions with LC.

Also some people won't interact with certain players until like D2 or D3, and I sort of did that by not really clearly reading Hally until the mindmeld of later D2.

And I don't recall if I ever directly interacted with Carotenoid before she got eliminated on D1.

[Thunal33]

If Nutella is town, why would LC push Nutella back and try to get into a thunder dome he’s sure to lose? The optimal strategy as scum there with Nutella as town is to try to defuse the push by towncasing himself, push someone else in the PoE, or even townread Nutella in an attempt to stop her suspicion on him. LC didn’t try to stop Nutella’s suspicion on him and he made Nutella look really good from the flip.

[Alison]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

[Thunal33]

Again, this is the disclaimer that my tinfoil thoughts only have a chance to be valid if Sloonei flips town. Sloonei’s flip will pretty much tell us how hard this game will be.

[tutuu]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

[tutuu]

im just naturally paranoid about lots of things in real life. my default mental state is a mix of excitement and fear. its very rare that im calm and relaxed

[Sloonei]

I just looked at the poll. Y’all are really set in voting me, huh?

[Sloonei]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

[Thunal33]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

What do you think of my Nutella bussing theory? If you’re town, do you think it might be valid?

[tutuu]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

yea like. all 4 ppl who voted u can vote alison. and u vote alison too. bam 5 votes

[Sloonei]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

What do you think of my Nutella bussing theory? If you’re town, do you think it might be valid?

nutella is my top town read from LC interactions, and was a town read before that as well. It would need to be some Sheppard-level maneuvering for her to have bussed LC. This is not the champs finale, the stakes are not that high, so I’m mot sure I see it. I’d be willing to consider it, but it would take a lot.

[Sloonei]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

yea like. all 4 ppl who voted u can vote alison. and u vote alison too. bam 5 votes

I suppose. I’m not sure how confident I am something like that will happen.

Talk to me about Martin, tutuu. Why is he town or not town?

[Alison]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

[Sloonei]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

Am I lock scum, 100% confirmed, no doubt, slam dunk wolf to you, Alison?

[Alison]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

Am I lock scum, 100% confirmed, no doubt, slam dunk wolf to you, Alison?

It's more like 85% or 90% rather than 100% (leaving 15-10% chance of something really unexpected or me just completely misreading the game), but I'm 100% sure that you're the right exe for today. What's the purpose of this question?

[tutuu]

Is 4 unchangeable votes even something I can overcome? I know we can all vote for as many people as we want, but half the non-me players have already voted for me. Meh.

You’ll have one more mischop before lylo after this. I’ll do what I can to help make tomorrow more successful if I am indeed going down.

yea like. all 4 ppl who voted u can vote alison. and u vote alison too. bam 5 votes

I suppose. I’m not sure how confident I am something like that will happen.

Talk to me about Martin, tutuu. Why is he town or not town?

he is probably town but i have 0 confidence in my ability to read people

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

post below explains why, and i do believe we are fucked, and u should too if ur town. we have 2 misyeets left. f5 is unplayable for both factions. it will come down to whoever votes faster in the quick topic and thats not mafia (the game) for me

like the mafia will have an edge in that scenario cuz they have to send whoever they want first. so they will be better prepared for host announcing night and opening up quick topic. while town will need to keep refreshing f5 and make a split second decision on who to vote, they HAVE to hit a town with it and the town also has to shoot a wolf in the green house. its a ridiculous and absurd situation

[tutuu]

2 misyeets left before lylo is what i meant to say

[tutuu]

nvm thats equivalent to saying "2 misyeets left total"

[nutella]

the fact that tutuu has thought so deeply about potential f5 mechanics, and that she seems so confident it will happen, is a nasty tell

[Sloonei]

tutuu why are you freaking out about how hard the game is if Sloonei is town? Like from your point of view you have no reason to believe there's a particularly high chance he'll flip town.

yea didnt u answer ur own question? he shouldnt flip town. if he flips town we're fucked

Yeah but why do you care so much about the possibility if you believe it shouldn't happen? (Also we are not fucked if he flips town, I'll die tomorrow and then you guys have however many attempts to catch the deepwolves, it's not a huge deal.)

Am I lock scum, 100% confirmed, no doubt, slam dunk wolf to you, Alison?

It's more like 85% or 90% rather than 100% (leaving 15-10% chance of something really unexpected or me just completely misreading the game), but I'm 100% sure that you're the right exe for today. What's the purpose of this question?

I asked it last night but you didn’t respond.

You wrote a post that seemed 100% certain that I am scum and it did not sit well with me.

[tutuu]

thats ur opinion that its scummy i thought about it so deeply, whatever

saying im confident it will happen is not true though

i believe i explained my default mental state is the opposite of calm and relaxed, and i believe u guys should know me good enough that u should know how paranoid i get every game

[tutuu]

or maybe not paranoid but pessimistic is a better word

[nutella]

I honestly believe that, perhaps regardless of Sloonei's flip, tutuu is a better next chop than Alison. But I'm sure Jay's ghost is screaming at the screen and I'm just crazy.

[tutuu]

u arent crazy u are just prone to being overconfident imo

which maybe isnt even a bad thing if ur reads are above average good, which id say yours are from the games ive played with u

[nutella]

If Sloonei does flip red I guess we wouldn't go for Alison anyway and I do think tutuu is a likely teammate though I could be swayed to martin maybe.

If Sloonei flips town, ugh yeah alright we should still go for Alison but I have some fear of tutuu/nook or something.


Basically yeah if Sloonei and Alison are both town we are indeed pretty fucked

[Hally]

let’s like... take it easy on the tinfoil and paranoia everyone. one step at a time

[tutuu]

cmon dawg i was the very first person to push sloonei d1. admittedly i didnt push him hard but like. cmon bruh. im an innocent town-aligned civilian

[nutella]

cmon dawg i was the very first person to push sloonei d1. admittedly i didnt push him hard but like. cmon bruh. im an innocent town-aligned civilian

....so do you have tmi that he's scum or tmi that he's town? lol are you messing with me or am I seeing things with confbias that don't actually make sense

god I hope sloonei just flips red xd (I was gonna say "and i can die peacefully" but i think im going to the grassland so i must suffer)

[Sloonei]

If Sloonei does flip red I guess we wouldn't go for Alison anyway and I do think tutuu is a likely teammate though I could be swayed to martin maybe.

If Sloonei flips town, ugh yeah alright we should still go for Alison but I have some fear of tutuu/nook or something.


Basically yeah if Sloonei and Alison are both town we are indeed pretty fucked

GTH, who are the first two names to look at it if that is the case?

[Hally]

i wouldn’t mind being sent to the grasslands tonight. i also would be fine with nut or spf going

[Sloonei]

I volunteer not to be sent to the grasslands tbh

[Hally]

[VOTE: alison] aubergine

still think this is the correct vote today, but i don’t see it happening