Transistor [ENDGAME]

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Find the Camerata or the Process.

Poll ended at Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:12 pm

Cell
0
No votes
Cheerleader
1
7%
DFaraday
1
7%
DrumBeats
0
No votes
Fetch
1
7%
JaggedJimmyJay
2
13%
kneel4justice
0
No votes
Luna
1
7%
Man
0
No votes
nijuukyugou
4
27%
Fairview (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
5
33%
 
Total votes: 15
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Re: Transistor [Night 8]

#1241

Post by nijuukyugou »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Niju, you keep saying DB placed the "clincher" vote on Zebra on Day 1. This doesn't make sense -- his vote came before any of the Elohcin votes. You're accusing him of sealing the Zebra lynch over the Elohcin lynch as if he had a distinct intent to do that -- implying he'd somehow know that a 5-vote wagon for Elohcin was going to come after he voted for Zebra.
:doh: My dumb self just noticed that. It's what I get for putting numbers in order of the votes themselves rather than the order in which they were placed.

I'll vote you, then.
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Re: Transistor [Night 8]

#1242

Post by kneel4justice »

Welp. I was hoping to get some better feedback before people placed their votes, but I guess not.
Voting for Mac. I think he's likely mafia. DB as well.
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Re: Transistor [POLLS]

#1243

Post by Epignosis »

Find the Camerata or The Process.

Poll ended at Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:07 pm

Badcell
0
No votes

Cell
0
No votes

Cheerleader
0
No votes

DFaraday
0
No votes

DrumBeats
1
Luna (6)
9%

Fetch
0
No votes

JaggedJimmyJay
3
Cheerleader (3), MacDougall (5), nijuukyugou (10)
27%

kneel4justice
0
No votes

Luna
0
No votes

MacDougall
5
Fetch (4), DFaraday (7), DrumBeats (8), JaggedJimmyJay (9), kneel4justice (11)
45%

Man
0
No votes

nijuukyugou
0
No votes

Fairview (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
2
Epignosis (1), Scotty (2)
18%


Total votes : 11
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Re: Transistor [Day 9]

#1244

Post by Epignosis »

Day 9 Ends: Tangent

We really went on a tangent there.
MacDougall has been lynched.
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It is now Night 10. You have 23 hours to submit your PMs and vote.
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1245

Post by Quokka »

I am Badcell. I am bad, and a cell.
To be recycled
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1246

Post by DrumBeats »

Mafia, if you want a statistical chance of winning you have to shoot an element tonight. If you shoot a Civ the process can tie all nonprocess votes if fetch or clucker have a vote.
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1247

Post by DrumBeats »

In case mafia is dumb and loses themself the game tonight by killing me, here's my thoughts:

K4J / Nijuu - mafia
3J - Process
DFaraday - Civ
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1248

Post by MacDougall »

Sorry I couldn't contribute more
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1249

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

DrumBeats wrote:Mafia, if you want a statistical chance of winning you have to shoot an element tonight. If you shoot a Civ the process can tie all nonprocess votes if fetch or clucker have a vote.
Moreover, if the mafia shoot a civ there'd only be one civ left, who would then have no reason to trust or work with anyone else. If there is ever a time to kill and lynch elements systematically, it's now.

I think the two Camerata are among niju, DFaraday, and DB. K4J is the most likely Process. Of the Camerata, DB and niju would make interesting team mates. The way niju tried to crap on him at the end of the day based upon a false voting premise when he had no real chance of being lynched anyway could be a distancing tactic.
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1250

Post by nijuukyugou »

:haha:

Getting desperate? Way to throw suspicion every which-way but yourselves/each other ("DB would make an interesting teammate" is hardly suspicion). I was curious as to who you guys plan to kill tonight, JJJ and DB, but it looks like you've already stated your plans in the thread. This is fun.

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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1251

Post by kneel4justice »

Are you kidding? These results suck.
I have no idea who to trust, apparently there's only one person I can trust anyway. I'm at a loss for who that is at the moment.
Went ahead and voted for Fetch.
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1252

Post by DFaraday »

I voted Clucker without bothering to look at how the votes were spread first.

I really have no idea whom to trust at this point, but just about the only thing I feel good about is that DB is not the Process. It wouldn't at all surprise me if he's bad, but then at this point nobody would really surprise me.
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Re: Transistor [Day 9]

#1253

Post by Epignosis »

Night 9 Ends: Impossible



Is that what this is becoming?
Badcell has been killed by The Camerata.
It is now Day 10. You have 48 hours to lynch someone.
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Re: Transistor [POLLS]

#1254

Post by Epignosis »

Research the Process

Jerk
0
No votes

Fetch
4
DrumBeats (4), kneel4justice (7), JaggedJimmyJay (8), nijuukyugou (10)
40%

Clucker
3
Badcell (2), Cheerleader (3), DFaraday (9)
30%

The Spine (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
3
Epignosis (1), Scotty (5), Quin (6)
30%


Total votes : 10
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1255

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1256

Post by Golf »

I know there has been a lot of talk about the Process lately, but you can believe me when I tell you I have thought a lot about this lately and come to the conclusion that the Camerata might also be a so-called baddie.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1257

Post by Ned Flanders »

Fetch wrote:I know there has been a lot of talk about the Process lately, but you can believe me when I tell you I have thought a lot about this lately and come to the conclusion that the Camerata might also be a so-called baddie.
:eek:
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1258

Post by nijuukyugou »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1259

Post by Phoebe Buffay »

nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
Ive alredy said that llama was our master!!

Like, this is totes seriooooussss, ok? We need to all vote for JJJ today. He's soooooo bad. If anyone is good, u need 2 vote 4 him or the cameras will win!!! After this, we can discuss the next course of action, buuuuuttt like Id like a fighting chance, and I cant even do that if the townpeeiple r playing lik poopy pants
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1260

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1261

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Cheerleader wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
Ive alredy said that llama was our master!!

Like, this is totes seriooooussss, ok? We need to all vote for JJJ today. He's soooooo bad. If anyone is good, u need 2 vote 4 him or the cameras will win!!! After this, we can discuss the next course of action, buuuuuttt like Id like a fighting chance, and I cant even do that if the townpeeiple r playing lik poopy pants
I don't know why you keep trying to promote the notion that llama was "our master" when it's publicly known that he couldn't have been. The Process is immune to kills. llama was killed. When the Process is eliminated all of its elements die too. You exist. The end.

You know I'm not the Process and that's why you want to lynch me.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1262

Post by Golf »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:When the Process is eliminated all of its elements die too. You exist. The end.
That's some deep shit.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1263

Post by DrumBeats »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?
Town cannot win the game while we are equal to the mafia either. We have a chance to win if we lynch mafia today. Then the remaining mafia has to shoot an element to have a chance. It's very bleak for us, but we have a shot. The fact that this phase in which town cannot lynch an element and win is the one that you want to do that and not last phase makes me relatively confident that you are not town. Mafia would obviously want to steer the lynch towards the elements right now so the process can't get a voting edge on them. Process could be suggesting this to distance self, but I would lean towards the mafia side of things for 3J's suggestion.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1264

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

DrumBeats wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?
Town cannot win the game while we are equal to the mafia either. We have a chance to win if we lynch mafia today. Then the remaining mafia has to shoot an element to have a chance. It's very bleak for us, but we have a shot.
I think what you're stating is incorrect unless both Clucker and Jerk cannot place meaningful votes.

Today the Process controls 3 votes (itself, the protective -1 vote, and the 1 vote). The total combined voting power of town and mafia is 4. If we lynch mafia today and they kill a voting element, it goes to 3-2 without accounting for the other two elements. If either of them can vote, it's 3-3 and control over the lynch is lost.

The only sure means town can win that I can see is eliminating the vote-capable elements first to such a degree that lynch control is maintained. Then the two Camerata must be lynched in succession with the Process's aid. Lastly the Process itself must be lynched.
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Overall: 73-57 (.56) | Town 49-41 (.54) | Mafia 18-11 (.62) | Independent 6-4 (.60)

The Syndicate: Town 23-26; Mafia 10-5; Indy 5-1 | RateYourMusic: Town 14-13; Mafia 5-4; Indy 0-3 | Mafia Universe: Town 6-0; Mafia 1-0 | Student Doctor Network: Town 2-1; Mafia 1-0 | HeroClixRealms: Town 1-0; Mafia 0-1 | Bulbagarden: Mafia 0-1; Indy 1-0 | 2+2 POG: Town 1-0 | Naruto Forums: Town 0-1 | Personality Café: Town 1-0 | Vendetta Strada: Town 0-1 | Mafia451: Town 1-0 | Wintreath: Mafia 1-0

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Spoiler: show
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1265

Post by DrumBeats »

What I'm stating is still correct though that the town can't win if we do. We need to force the mafia to only be able to kill elements to win. We're currently equal to the mafia and they will reduce our numbers instead if there is no need for them to shoot the process.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1266

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

DrumBeats wrote:What I'm stating is still correct though that the town can't win if we do. We need to force the mafia to only be able to kill elements to win. We're currently equal to the mafia and they will reduce our numbers instead if there is no need for them to shoot the process.
I think the Mafia can only kill elements now regardless of the number of them in play, because as the game stands they need town's votes as much as town needs their votes. More importantly, if they actually shoot a townie then there will only be one townie left in the game -- one who will have no reason to vote any specific way because the game will be over for him. He'll know he is alone. The mafia cannot control the lynch either with even one extra process vote remaining unless they have a committed and engaged townie in this thread able to place a meaningful vote in their favor unwittingly.

The Process will win this game unless both of the other factions cooperate in reducing its power before acting against one another.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1267

Post by nijuukyugou »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?
There is no way civs can win if we don't get a baddie today. No way. Even if we lynch the Process itself and not a baddie (not even an element), we cannot win. Baddies would kill a civ the next night and civs would lose ALL voting advantage, only being dependent on the Process (IF the Process were left alive, and I seriously doubt if that were the case, the baddies would go after an element and not a civ) to keep them going. We need to get a baddie, to take that chance. Don't even try to paint this like it's more of an advantage to go after an element. What you're suggesting is a baddie strategy to keep your faction alive, to buy yourself more time, not save the civs.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1268

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
nijuukyugou wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:We know what every Process element in the poll can do today aside from Luna if that applies.

The Process can still exert too much control over the lynch because it has two votes that count for something -- Fetch and Weed. I think we need to lynch one of those today.
Of course you do, so you can buy more time for your team and people will avoid voting you and seeing you for the baddie you are. Two confirmed civs (assuming NK'ed llama was a civ, which I will most certainly assume) knew it, saw or knew something we didn't, and tried to show it with their crazy votes, but were too busy to prove it beyond that, it seems. Lucky you.

But I'm not too busy. I'm done with work. And I'm coming for you, Jimmy.
You've bothered to paint a picture of some baddie strategy you claim I'm employing, but you've not bothered to address the core point I was making:

Town cannot win this game without reducing the voting power of the Process.

So if you're going to accuse me of bullshitting, then the onus is on you to show me where my assertion is false. Lay it out for me, niju, phase by phase. How does town win this game without addressing the voting power of the Process faction?
There is no way civs can win if we don't get a baddie today. No way. Even if we lynch the Process itself and not a baddie (not even an element), we cannot win. Baddies would kill a civ the next night and civs would lose ALL voting advantage, only being dependent on the Process (IF the Process were left alive, and I seriously doubt if that were the case, the baddies would go after an element and not a civ) to keep them going. We need to get a baddie, to take that chance. Don't even try to paint this like it's more of an advantage to go after an element. What you're suggesting is a baddie strategy to keep your faction alive, to buy yourself more time, not save the civs.
I agree that lynching the Process itself would be a game-losing play this phase. Lynching mafia today isn't necessarily a game-losing play, but it relies entirely on both Clucker and Jerk having 0-worth votes. There is a route to victory if an element is lynched today which I just described. You're failing to address the core of my argument and instead pretending I am "stalling", which would be completely pointless.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1269

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Theory:

DB and niju are the Camerata. They're trying to generate negative press about me because they genuinely believe I am the Process, and thus lynching me would win them the game today.
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Re: Transistor [Night 9]

#1270

Post by kneel4justice »

Okay. I've been thinking about this a lot. Don't know that I've got things figured out, I would prefer people actually converse with me and respond to my post.

Both DrumBeats and Niju have been suspicious of me due to their more recent behavior.


First, there is DrumBeats. He began to catch my eye last day phase with the only response to the suspicion being cast against him with the defense that if he were mafia, the process elements would have been targeted sooner and more consistently. I have explained why I find this defense to be invalid; the mafia consists of a team, not a single individual. There would be more to consider within the mafia than DrumBeats' own personal thoughts on how the elements should be dealt with; such as those who are a threat to the mafia members survival. It is a group effort and the fact that DrumBeats writes it off as something very simple is suspicious, IMO.
When I began speaking on that, suddenly DrumBeats had come back into the thread the next day, with no comments on my growing concern of him, but instead a random ISO on my posts. That's fine. Everyone can look at my posts; I have nothing to hide. But, I found the timing very convenient. He'd not expressed any desire to look back at me nor any previous suspicion of me (please, correct me if I am wrong). But suddenly, when I have a problem with his posts - he is looking at mine. Now if it stopped there - it would be semi-reasonable.
However, I have a problem with the content in the ISO itself. DrumBeats analysis of my behavior came with many incorrect statements that if were true, would definitely be suspicious of me; but he stated things as facts that are clearly not, which I've addressed in my post here.
By no means am I saying that people shouldn't be free to suspect me, but considering the circumstances and incorrect statements found with his suspicious of me, I think that there is a problem there. There is one thing that makes me hesitate - DrumBeats said that he woke up early and was on his phone, so perhaps he was speeding through, not really being able to fully analyze things and just made a genuine town mistake. But, I would like to hear his response to this and judge from there.

Next, there is Niju. Now this is kind of difficult. Because, Niju seems to feel better about me than other players such as DrumBeats and JJJ, which naturally, makes me want her to be good.
But, the first thing that I noticed with Niju was that when JJJ said that Niju and I (K4J) were more likely to be the process; she blew off the idea - completely. Made it look like JJJ was making things up. But never did Niju seem to actually consider that JJJ was right in thinking I was the process. Instead, she dismissed his idea all together. She wanted to discredit him. It just came off weird to me. Don't get me wrong - I am not the process, but how does Niju know I am not? It seemed to me she was focused on rejecting the suspicion all together - that she wanted to discredit everything JJJ was saying. I mean when I read JJJ's claim, yes, I thought to myself - I am not the process. But - I definitely did consider, is Niju the process? I didn't outright object that there might be something to JJJ's thoughts. The fact that she did - makes me feel like it was kind of over-defensive.
Finally, this post:
Spoiler: show
nijuukyugou wrote::haha:

Getting desperate? Way to throw suspicion every which-way but yourselves/each other ("DB would make an interesting teammate" is hardly suspicion). I was curious as to who you guys plan to kill tonight, JJJ and DB, but it looks like you've already stated your plans in the thread. This is fun.

Image
I feel like Niju is too confident in what is going on, in this post and I think that is suspicious. I know you guys don't know me very well if at all, because this is not my home site and I play here rarely - but I have played a lot of mafia and I think this is a classic scum tell. It's just too aggressive at this stage. People should be confused - understanding that no, not everyone knows what's going on. I think Niju is trying to do whatever to ensure that she herself is not lynched and that this strong reaction is evidence of her panicking.


Now. I am open to the idea that I could be wrong. I am by no means sold. So please, if people can actually converse, and speak with me, that would be great.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1271

Post by kneel4justice »

I wanted to break my post up into 2, so that hopefully people wouldn't see a large chuck of text and ignore it (not that people should be doing that especially at this stage of the game, but still).
So this has caught my eye:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory:

DB and niju are the Camerata. They're trying to generate negative press about me because they genuinely believe I am the Process, and thus lynching me would win them the game today.
Quite possible, I suppose. Considering I was suspicious of each of these individually.
But, what gets me is - why would the mafia think you are the process? If these two are the mafia, why would they think that JJJ is the process and not DF? Not K4J? Certainly they would need some reason to hold this belief.
If you are a civvie - why would you think that the mafia has a reason to believe you are the process? It just makes no sense.
Now, if you are the process - you might have reason to think that the mafia knows you are process because of the mafia's failure to kill two nights ago. Since the process is immune to night kills, my thinking is you are the process - and think that the mafia knows who you are because they tried to kill you and it didn't work.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1272

Post by Ben Linus »

I'm a weed.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1273

Post by Phoebe Buffay »

Attttention lame townies: Ill shake my pom poms if u all help me with my homeworkkkk

My homework is lynching mafia. Can we pls kill JJJ like pretty pleeeeeeeeSE?
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1274

Post by Golf »

Yes.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1275

Post by nijuukyugou »

JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Theory:

DB and niju are the Camerata. They're trying to generate negative press about me because they genuinely believe I am the Process, and thus lynching me would win them the game today.
Nope. You're bad. I'm not.
kneel4justice wrote: Next, there is Niju. Now this is kind of difficult. Because, Niju seems to feel better about me than other players such as DrumBeats and JJJ, which naturally, makes me want her to be good.
But, the first thing that I noticed with Niju was that when JJJ said that Niju and I (K4J) were more likely to be the process; she blew off the idea - completely. Made it look like JJJ was making things up. But never did Niju seem to actually consider that JJJ was right in thinking I was the process. Instead, she dismissed his idea all together. She wanted to discredit him. It just came off weird to me. Don't get me wrong - I am not the process, but how does Niju know I am not? It seemed to me she was focused on rejecting the suspicion all together - that she wanted to discredit everything JJJ was saying. I mean when I read JJJ's claim, yes, I thought to myself - I am not the process. But - I definitely did consider, is Niju the process? I didn't outright object that there might be something to JJJ's thoughts. The fact that she did - makes me feel like it was kind of over-defensive.
Finally, this post:
Spoiler: show
nijuukyugou wrote::haha:

Getting desperate? Way to throw suspicion every which-way but yourselves/each other ("DB would make an interesting teammate" is hardly suspicion). I was curious as to who you guys plan to kill tonight, JJJ and DB, but it looks like you've already stated your plans in the thread. This is fun.

Image
I feel like Niju is too confident in what is going on, in this post and I think that is suspicious. I know you guys don't know me very well if at all, because this is not my home site and I play here rarely - but I have played a lot of mafia and I think this is a classic scum tell. It's just too aggressive at this stage. People should be confused - understanding that no, not everyone knows what's going on. I think Niju is trying to do whatever to ensure that she herself is not lynched and that this strong reaction is evidence of her panicking.


Now. I am open to the idea that I could be wrong. I am by no means sold. So please, if people can actually converse, and speak with me, that would be great.
First point: You're right - I was focused on pointing out JJJ's BS, not addressing the possibility of your being the Process. However, I did address it slightly, by asking him why two other players (DF and Mac) would be more likely to be Process. Sure, you could be, but I was focused on getting an answer regarding his so-called suspicions. The point was that I didn't believe your possibility was more so than those two, according to what he was saying.

Second point: nah, I'm not panicking for myself. I'm being aggressive/snarky because yes, I do want to win at this point, and yes, I absolutely believe JJJ is bad and has done a helluva job bamboozling us from the beginning. I do realize it looks suspect, coming out with strong, aggressive suspicion of a player, but it's what llama and Mac were trying to do, although they weren't able to/did not attempt to prove that JJJ is bad. It is understandably difficult to do so, as his voting record is pretty nice-looking. However, he himself made this point about me and my voting record: an immaculate record is not automatically indicative of civilian behavior, and that civs usually make more mistakes. And considering his vote for MP was on a day where the only other person gaining more than one vote was himself, that takes away from his credibility on that day's vote.

But let's talk about JJJ's interactions with MP, shall we? I like links better than spoilers/quotes, especially for MP's long-ass posts, so that's what I'm a-gonna do.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 07#p278007
In which MP says he "doesn't know what to think of JJJ just yet" and "understands that he's busy with games." Puts him on his wishy-washy yellow list.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 08#p279108
In which MP "looks at JJJ" to come up with ISOs/analyses of everyone while MP is away.

http://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewto ... 52#p281352
In which MP updates his rainbow list and puts JJJ in green for his interactive ISOs. Puts me in green, too, which is something that asshole does when he's bad to curry favor with me :P (You'll just have to take my word on that last point.)

Now, this is a nice visual, so I'll cut with the links:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think a lot of possible discussion surrounding this circumstance is contingent upon the lynch result.
Yeah, you're totally right, I just feel weird seeing the discussion halt completely during the last half hour of EoD. A lot of my reads and opinions will be contingent upon the result as well, especially if Elo is lynched. I don't feel we'll learn as much if zebra is lynched, but it's hard to say at the moment.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:
AllAlongTheBoardwalk wrote:What's up with Cell voting for me? I wanting if that will cause anything to happen related to the process? Thoughts?
Whether there'll be consequences I couldn't say. Given that Cell voted off-wagons, I think he/she might be trying to get people to WIFOM about whether you're the one that placed the vote.

If it's not you. :dark:
I agree.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:What do you like about Doc, MP?
A few things:

1) His thoughts regarding Elo towards EoD, and his willingness to give her an hour to respond to his concerns
2) His GTH read exercise with you in real time
3) His insistence in throwing out GTH reads of his own, all of which are tentatively believable as genuine given his recent content

All reads are slight for now pending a flip or two, but yeah, Wilgy's recent behavior seems town to me.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:I think a lot of possible discussion surrounding this circumstance is contingent upon the lynch result.
Yeah, you're totally right, I just feel weird seeing the discussion halt completely during the last half hour of EoD. A lot of my reads and opinions will be contingent upon the result as well, especially if Elo is lynched. I don't feel we'll learn as much if zebra is lynched, but it's hard to say at the moment.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:MP: is your read on nutella impacted by the shift in your read on Elohcin?
Inevitably, yeah, but I don't have any flips yet, so I'm hesitant to move nutella to null or town just based on Elo's descent. I still would like to hear from nutella before re-evaluating.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:My preferred lynch is Elohcin.
Let's do it then. CFD Elohcin.

VOTES ELOHCIN
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:This might prove a telling flip given the progression of Day 1.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:In summary I think there's a valid reason to suspect nearly everyone in the Zebra wagon. The only vote that I don't find especially troubling is Matt's. I am sure not everyone else in that wagon is a baddie, so it's important that everyone involved say their piece and enable a fuller conversation.
How would you rank them in terms of least to most suspicious? I'm going to mull over that myself now that we know Elo was mafia and provide my ranking.
I'm going to reassess in light of the new information before I put up any sort of ranking. Eloh was a point of significant discussion and I'm going to do some interactive reads.
That sounds good to me. I was hoping to do some myself if you didn't get around to it first.

I'm going to at least throw up a new rainbow here due to my lack of being able to talk during Day 2, subject to change pending further investigation by myself, you, or others.
Try looking for a post of JJJ's that MP responds to that he doesn't agree with, or that he doesn't praise him for his ISOs. The only time he mildly disagrees is when JJJ decides to throw suspicion on him. This is one of his last posts before his lynch:
MovingPictures07 wrote:I know I haven't been great at participating in a while or at addressing my accusers. I have like a half an hour max now, then unfortunately I need to leave to teach and won't be home until after the deadline, so I'll try to do what I can.

With respect to my lynch vote, I don't want to lynch JJJ. I don't really have any reason to believe that he's bad, and Llama and Mac pushing the easy button on it over and over again with practically no attempt to convince anyone else doesn't do anything for me.
JJJ is always at the top of his reads lists, except at the beginning, when he "understood JJJ's busyness" and put practically everyone in yellow. He never suspects him, ever, for anything. Not even a light suspicion. No NO-U in sight. He suspects everyone at some point, even to a small extent (myself included, when he was trying to decide whether to vote me or Nero in the crazy lynch), but never JJJ. The WIFOM is, of course, huge here: why would someone so enthusiastically endorse a teammate throughout the entire game? Flawlessly, enthusiastically agree with everything JJJ says? One might think MP didn't think he would be lynched so early, due to suspicion against another one of his teammates, and could get away with it. But I also think MP would pull that sort of gambit, as I've said before. Both he and JJJ, just to say they did it in the end. It's too perfect. It's too buddy-buddy to ignore as "buddying."

I've had time to think about this, and I can see why Mac and llama, who basically had no time, had so much trouble proving JJJ's baddiness. He's done a hell of a job covering his tracks. But if you consider nothing above, brush it off as crazy-Blooper theories, consider two things: why would two civs so enthusiastically, without abandon, without regard to how they looked in the thread, go after JJJ in such a manner? They knew something, and tried to get our attention the best way they could with their posts and multiple votes from nowhere (and it did get our attention, but in the opposite manner). Two, consider JJJ's plan today to go after an element instead of a baddie. I've been over this - what civilian reason would one have for doing this? The tiniest, tiniest chance, which requires trust in the mafia to go after an element instead of a civ? Not this late in the game. No way, Jose. You're just trying to buy time.

I'm voting JJJ. I've done what I can, methinks, and now it's up to y'all to do the right thing. But I suggest, in the wise words of our fallen comrade, Macdougall:
MacDougall wrote:KILL ALL JIMMYS KILL ALL JIMMYS
:noble:
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1276

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I'm on the road right now, but I'll be back soon. niju has failed again to address thebasic mathematical flaw in her argument, and I'll lay out exactly what I'm talking about. If you vote for me without hearing me out first, you'll be handing the game to the Process.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1277

Post by DFaraday »

I know this lynch is vital, so I will wait to hear what JJJ has to say before voting. For me, it comes down to mathematical probability at this point, so discussion of the votes in play are welcome.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1278

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Okay. Time is limited in this day phase, so I am going to limit my focus to what is pertinent. That means I am not going to bother answering to accusations I have faced that I am mafia, or that I am the Process, because in the current numbers scenario it literally doesn't matter what I am. If I am lynched, the beneficiary is never Cloudwalk regardless of my alignment. I understand this might strike some people as a radical notion or something, but I implore you to please listen to me. There is no need for me to have any "agenda" here, it is basic math. I'll lay it all out here, displaying the possible scenarios from other people's perspectives for each possible alignment that I could flip.

If you lynch me today (or any other player), the consequences are as follows:

1. JJJ flips Cloudwalk: -- Obviously town is screwed. Only one townie remains after my death, and there are no scenarios which would allow that townie to be the last surviving player.

2. JJJ flips Process: -- We're in a 2:2:1 ratio right now. If I am the Process, lynching me will yield a 2:2 ratio. That is probably an instantaneous Camerata victory.

3. JJJ flips Camerata: -- The 2:2:1 ratio becomes 2:1:1, preceding the night kill. The Camerata are mechanically forced to kill a process element for two reasons:

a. With only 3 non-Process votes left in the field, it is impossible for the combined strength of Cloudwalk and Camerata to control the lynch against the Process while Fetch, Weed, Clucker, and Jerk all remain intact. The only possible hope is if both Clucker and Jerk do not have votes that count (this is not likely at all given the voting ratio we've seen from the Process faction), which would leave the game at 3 non-Process votes to 3 Process votes. The game is reliant upon a coin flip, and ONLY if Clucker and Jerk have no votes. If even one of them does, the Process has more voting power than the Cloudwalk and Camerata combined and can eliminate them systematically with that advantage.

b. Killing a townie leaves only one townie remaining. That townie will then KNOW that he is the only townie left in the game, with no chance to win. That townie then has no incentive whatsoever to vote in a way that is beneficial to the Camerata faction, and they need that townie to vote for their benefit to have any chance of overcoming the Process.

If we examine the win chances per each of these scenarios, they are as follows:

1. Cloudwalk - 0%, Camerata - nearly 0% (same reason as [point "b"] above), Process - nearly 100%

2. Cloudwalk - 0%, Camerata - 100%, Process - 0%

3. Cloudwalk - nearly 0%, Camerata - nearly 0%, Process - nearly 100%

No matter what I flip, the Cloudwalk faction is screwed. This logic holds no matter who is lynched if it is a player instead of an element.

So what happens if we follow the alternative that I am trying to promote by lynching a process element instead?

The current ratio is 2:2:1. The current voting power of the Process is 3 (Weed, Fetch, the Process itself). The combined voting power of the Cloudwalk and Camerata is 4 -- just barely enough to assert control over the lynch if everyone cooperates.

After the element is lynched, we're still in a 2:2:1 ratio. The Camerata are still mechanically forced to kill an element instead of a townie. The same logic from points "a" and "b" above hold, this time from the opposite perspective. The Camerata cannot win the game without lynching the Process. They cannot lynch the Process on their own if they cannot control the voting majority -- this means they are mechanically dependent upon the Cloudwalk to attain the numbers necessary just as the Cloudwalk are dependent upon them. There is no way around this. It's just how the math works out right now.

So how can town win this game? There's only one route left that I can see.

1. Lynch a voting element (either Weed or Fetch).
2. The mafia kill the other element that wasn't lynched, because they have no choice. Killing a townie would likely ruin them (see points "a" and "b").
3. Research Clucker/Jerk. If the researched element has a vote, assume the other doesn't. If the researched element doesn't have a vote, assume the other does. This is a bit of a gamble, but I believe it is necessary for the exchange of element-eliminations to leave town with a free lynch.
4. The Process voting power is down to 2 (Clucker/Jerk and the Process itself), the combined voting power of the Cloudwalk and Camerata is still 4.
5. With a 2-vote edge over the Process, town is free to lynch the lead Camerata suspect. The combined voting power of Camerata/Cloudwalk still eclipses the voting power of the Process. Moreover, the Camerata are still forced to kill an element no matter what for the same reasons I've already stated. This means control over the lynch is maintained until endgame, and it is the only way to attain that.

~~~

This is the point I've been trying to convey. It has not been viably contested. Instead, I'm being told that I am merely "trying to buy time", as if "buying time" is something that holds any value right now. Lynching elements leaves the base numbers ratios where they are in the present. It opens the door for both the Cloudwalk and the Camerata to have a puncher's chance in this game -- because right now if they don't cooperate, the Process has already won. This isn't an assertion pulled from nowhere, it is a mathematical deduction.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1279

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I think the element most needing to go is Weed, because that one is exactly how the Process can commandeer a poll and secure it's own win. It probably doesn't matter though TBH between Weed and Fetch. We all have to vote for the same element to maintain tally control.

I implore those of you who are willing to listen to what I am trying to tell you to vote for Weed. This is the only way to keep this game winnable for anyone other than the Process.

*votes Weed*

If you've read what I've laid out and don't understand something, please ask. I'll try my best to clarify.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1280

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I'm going to be out briefly again, but I should be back well enough in time to answer any questions people may have.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1281

Post by kneel4justice »

This is complicated, my head hurts. I guess we really should have taken a different approach with these elements in the beginning. I think I am following JJJ's logic and think it does make sense to lynch an element today, because the mafia wouldn't kill a civilian over the night - then the process would win? If I am understanding correctly & not missing anything. After that it would be best to lynch a member of the mafia, I believe? For now, I will withhold my vote to see if anyone raises a point that I haven't thought through/missed.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1282

Post by DFaraday »

JJJ's logic makes sense to me, so I will go ahead and also *vote Weed*
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1283

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

kneel4justice wrote:because the mafia wouldn't kill a civilian over the night
I think this is the point that people need to put thought into. I've asserted it repeatedly now, and it hasn't been refuted in any meaningful way. No matter what happens in this day phase, the mafia are mechanically unable to kill a townie unless they want to blow the game for themselves. If they do that, then there won't be enough votes left on the table between the town and mafia to overtake the Process, meaning the Process would have close to free reign over every tally thereafter. Moreover, if a townie is killed then only one townie remains -- that last townie will know himself to be the last townie, and thus have no reason whatsoever to trust anything anyone else says -- let alone even care what happens. The mafia need town votes to survive, and they need those votes to be motivated by real initiative. There's no other avenue for them to assert control over the tally as necessary to lynch the Process (something they absolutely must do to win the game).

I don't think I'm missing anything here. I've thought about it repeatedly and I don't see any way for this phase to be better spent lynching a player than lynching an element.

I am baffled honestly that I seem to be the only one who understands this point. Do you see a lapse in my logic?
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1284

Post by DrumBeats »

K4J - I was talking when you voted in relation to when others did, not the times.

3J - Basically this game is a kingmaker scenario where we get to choose who wins process or mafia if we allow the mafia to get the first strike on us. But since I don't have time to argue and there's already enough votes on weed that Process could overrun whatever we do if I don't go with it, looks like I'm voting weed.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1285

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

I think you guys have made the right choice.

If we lynch Weed and the mafia respond by killing a townie, then they're literally not paying attention to anything and probably cannot win the game. They need town votes to lynch the Process. The Process doesn't need town votes to lynch them, unless they eliminate an element to maintain the cooperative advantage.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1286

Post by kneel4justice »

No, JJJ - I don't see any lapse in the logic but wanted to make sure that others didn't either in case I was overlooking something myself. I am now voting weed, too.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1287

Post by Jack Shephard »

Bark.
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Re: Transistor [Day 10]

#1288

Post by JaggedJimmyJay »

Luna wrote:Bark.
You're so adorable. Image
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Re: Transistor [POLLS]

#1289

Post by Epignosis »

Find the Camerata or The Process.

Poll ended at Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:25 pm

Cell
0
No votes

Cheerleader
1
Luna (13)
8%

DFaraday
0
No votes

DrumBeats
0
No votes

Fetch
0
No votes

JaggedJimmyJay
3
Cheerleader (6), Fetch (7), nijuukyugou (8)
23%

kneel4justice
0
No votes

Luna
0
No votes

Man
0
No votes

nijuukyugou
1
Weed (5)
8%

Weed
4
JaggedJimmyJay (9), DFaraday (10), DrumBeats (11), kneel4justice (12)
31%

Fairview (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
4
Epignosis (1), MovingPictures07 (2), Scotty (3), Spacedaisy (4)
31%


Total votes : 13
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Re: Transistor [Day 9]

#1290

Post by Epignosis »

Day 10 Ends: Blank Canvas

That's what The Process is. Isn't it?
Weed has been lynched.
It is now Night 10. You have 23 hours to submit your PMs and vote.
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