GY!BE Mafia [E.N.D.]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If the SK is alive, I think this game is a kingmaker scenario unless the civs can stop a kill. In fact, if it's 2-1-1 with no kill prevention, the only avenue left for a civilian win might be a civilian lynch. I know that's bizarre, so please listen to what I'm saying.

2-1-1. Lynch the SK. Mafia night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch mafia. The SK night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch civilian. The SK and mafia hopefully night kill each other. 1 civ alive, civs win.

One alternative is if the treble voter is still alive. That could make 1-1 viable.

If it's 3-1, it's still LyLo but the lynch must be Mladic.

[Marmot]

Metalmarsh89

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's a good look for you MM, to immediately react with a self-vote.

[Marmot]

That's a good look for you MM, to immediately react with a self-vote.

Yeah thanks.

What are you going to do about it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

[Marmot]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

If the SK is still alive, it sounds reasonable (and exactly like the scenario we ran into in the live game last night).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

If the SK is still alive, it sounds reasonable (and exactly like the scenario we ran into in the live game last night).

Yes that's where the thought stems from. I actually thought in that game the civs were dead and didn't consider the baddie-on-baddie violence that could win them the game.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

[Ricochet]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

This guy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It was implied that this game wouldn't make it to Christmas. I think this is LyLo regardless of the alignment ratios. So:

A SK lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1.

A mafia lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1 and wins the game if it's 3-1.

A civilian lynch loses the game if it's 3-1 and can win the game if it's 2-1-1.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

I also don't plan on following through on your idea. I just wanted to see your reaction.

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Well if y'all lynch me I hope the SK is alive. That'd be the civs' only chance.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

What do you think happened with the SK kill then?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

I also don't plan on following through on your idea. I just wanted to see your reaction.

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

Another question:

You think the SK is alive, and you think I'm bad.

You're willfully making a vote that within your logical framework would lose the game for the civilians. What?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Y'all can act like this is some hokey attempt at manipulation or you can do basic math.

[Epignosis]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

I've operated under the belief that 1v1 would result a coin flip as stated in the rules.

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've operated under the belief that 1v1 would result a coin flip as stated in the rules.

The game will end before Christmas. Today is Christmas Eve.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, 1v1 with a civilian alive means the control of the lynch has been lost. That's game over in any scenario where there aren't extra votes or lynch protections. Tied tallies result in coin flips, 1v1 isn't a "tied tally", it's an endgame.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

[Epignosis]

Also, 1v1 with a civilian alive means the control of the lynch has been lost. That's game over in any scenario where there aren't extra votes or lynch protections. Tied tallies result in coin flips, 1v1 isn't a "tied tally", it's an endgame.

That's in Kansas. You ain't in Kansas anymore.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

I've already done this. Anticipatory play to serve as a recruiting signal and to attach himself to the wrong person when his role is publicized.

[Epignosis]

MM, you voted birdwithteeth11 / Wilgy a few times in the past. What makes 3K a better lynch at this stage than Wilgy?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

1v1 between two opposing baddie factions is a little different because "control of the lynch" is no longer the condition of importance. In that situation I could see a coin flip.

[Epignosis]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

[Marmot]

Y'all can act like this is some hokey attempt at manipulation or you can do basic math.

If we do lynch a civilian today and the SK is still alive, we'd still need to have the SK and mafia target each other. Also, survival is required for a civilian to win. I'm not sacrificing myself at this point.

There are secrets in play, and the coinflip scenario to consider. As we've seen throughout this game, I don't think we can expect the simplest outcome to be the most likely one.

I think voting for my strongest suspect is my best option. I see you as a likely SK candidate and a probable mafia candidate. I can't imagine DrWilgy being the SK based on activity, but I still do consider him a mafia candidate.

Linki: Well I hope this answers your question Epignosis.

[Marmot]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

It is in the rules though.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Not even on The Syndicate can I recall a game where a 1v1 scenario including a civilian doesn't end the game immediately except where extra votes or lynch protections exist. That exception applies to Talking Heads and Mad Max.

This is Ricochet you're dealing with. I make no assumptions.

1v1 as a coin flip is an assumption.

It is in the rules though.

It's an assumption to say that rule applies to an endgame ratio. That's not typical even on this website.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I mean come on, it makes no sense to decide the game on a coin flip just because one civilian is still alive. That's nonsense. Rico might be unpredictable, but he still knows how this game works. When a mafioso or a SK has gotten to a 1 vs. 1 and those single votes are all that's left, the game is over. That's Mafia.

The game will be over before Christmas.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

I've already done this. Anticipatory play to serve as a recruiting signal and to attach himself to the wrong person when his role is publicized.

I don't see how that strategy works though. Say Trice doesn't get lynched and his role isn't revealed...how does that get him recruited?

[Epignosis]

The game will be over before Christmas.

Not for Rico.

[Marmot]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

After you changed your read on Epignosis to civilian, your next post suggested the strategy of lynching a civilian, not lynching DrWilgy. I don't think that mindset comes from a civilian.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't see how that strategy works though. Say Trice doesn't get lynched and his role isn't revealed...how does that get him recruited?

Best case: the SK sees a guy fingering someone conclusively as the SK without significant basis in the evidence, and thinks it's a signal worth checking. Recruitment occurs.

Worst case: the SK doesn't check him and he plays on to try again (trice).

The alternative strategy you're associating with him is an "I want to lose, fuck you JJJ" strategy. That would be trolling.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

and a probable mafia candidate.

You think I killed sig and left myself here with Epignosis? Am I suicidal?

After you changed your read on Epignosis to civilian, your next post suggested the strategy of lynching a civilian, not lynching DrWilgy. I don't think that mindset comes from a civilian.

I put up the kingmaker scenarios to display the circumstances because it's an important discussion to field. It also netted an immediate response from you and I think there's value in that.

I didn't suggest lynching a civilian. I said there's a scenario where that might be necessary. I left my vote on the guy I think is Mladic because I don't think the SK is in this game right now. If the rest of you disagree with that, it's something that should be playing into your reads and your voting decisions. That's the point of talking about it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Marmot, we just played a game where that kingmaker scenario occurred and I lost as a baddie because a civilian was lynched at LyLo. It's fresh on my mind and we're in a very similar position. Of course I brought it up today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

To be frank:

I can understand being suspected as the SK. A guy who knew who the SK was fingered me as the SK. That's something I've had to contend with much to my frustration, but I can understand why other civilians might view that as a problem for me.

I don't understand being suspected as a mafioso. Dom's treatment of me is nothing like teammate behavior, and no matter how much you want to scare yourself with WIFOM b/s, it makes no sense for me to kill sig. None.

[Marmot]

I am considering voting DrWilgy. Based on his subtitution timing and activity since then, he's a less than ideal player to have in LYLO (no offense Wilgy).

I just wished we could have lynched him earlier.

[Epignosis]

I have a few things I have to process (including pizza).

[Epignosis]

One thing going on in my mind is that even if I believe 3J is the serial killer, the mafia don't (or they believe they cannot Night kill him or don't want to take a chance on that kill failing). The Mafia have been getting obliterated by Night kills, not lynches. When I'm bad, my goal is to eliminate all other kills from play so that I am the one in control of the Night. That is something to chew on.

[Epignosis]

If 3J is in fact the serial killer, then I might have to believe his master plan was to not kill me so he could say "Look, I didn't kill Epignosis!" and hope that's good enough to get him through the next Day. However, Dom was a vocal opponent of 3J's too.

Howyevah, there was no serial killer activity Night 8 as far as I can tell. Sleep is dead (and couldn't block anyway) and so is Static, so I am inclined to believe there was no block in play. If there was a block in play, I would expect the blocker to string the serial killer up by his toenails. There is no toenail stringing going on right now, sadly. If there was a protector's hand in this, we would see the protector giving somebody the thumbs up, and I ain't seeing any thumbs.

The only conceivable alternative is that 3J deliberately withheld his kill so that, going into Day 9, the rest of us would have to entertain the idea that the serial killer was killed. Two evenings ago, 3J was pretty mad at me for voting him and not "thinking(!!!!!!!)," so perhaps he was angry that I didn't fall for his ruse.

But if there was no ruse, then there is no serial killer anymore.

Hi Trice.