GY!BE Mafia [E.N.D.]

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Poiint: the only badfie we know for sure is still alive is Mladic. I think I can be eliminated from contention for that role based on how Dom treated me before his death and also on the sig kill.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Dom's posts

Review his most recent content and then tell me I'm his teammate.

Then ask yourself whether it makes sense in any universe for me to kill sig and leave myself in a LyLo with the three of you.

[Marmot]

Well that changes things.

[Marmot]

Every time I think I have things figured out, Ricochet comes along and fucks my mind like the deranged tyrant that he is.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Gonna be gone all day. Phone check-ins are possible. I'll be hanging out with numerous other participants in this game; that'll be bizarre.

[DrWilgy]

If BTSC is not the case then IDK again.

Marmot, in light of this what do you think of Epi?

[Epignosis]

I have my office now. I can consider all sides to all arguments and am willing to do that, although my interactions will be sporadic given that there is still much for me to do.

[Marmot]

I don't know DrWilgy. I'm going to sleep on it.

I have my office now. I can consider all sides to all arguments and am willing to do that, although my interactions will be sporadic given that there is still much for me to do.

You'll be forever handicapped until you sit forward in your chair.

[Epignosis]

Question for 3J: Who wouldn't kill me in this scenario? Why does this qualm uniquely pertain to you?

[Marmot]

Well, regardless of whether Epignosis and Boomslang had BTSC or not, we still have these two rainbows from Quin/LoRab.

Mafia Dawn Thoughts:

Epi
LoRab

Wilgy
Dom
3J
MM
sig

And they both listed Epignosis as civilian. Considering they're probably M=F and had a rolecheck, that's a read I can believe.

[DrWilgy]

Well, regardless of whether Epignosis and Boomslang had BTSC or not, we still have these two rainbows from Quin/LoRab.

Mafia Dawn Thoughts:

Epi
LoRab

Wilgy
Dom
3J
MM
sig

And they both listed Epignosis as civilian. Considering they're probably M=F and had a rolecheck, that's a read I can believe.

So you think JJJ and I are the remaining baddies still?

[Marmot]

Well, regardless of whether Epignosis and Boomslang had BTSC or not, we still have these two rainbows from Quin/LoRab.

Mafia Dawn Thoughts:

Epi
LoRab

Wilgy
Dom
3J
MM
sig

And they both listed Epignosis as civilian. Considering they're probably M=F and had a rolecheck, that's a read I can believe.

So you think JJJ and I are the remaining baddies still?

Yes, in that order.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

M=F's role check doesn't work in a way that allows for a conclusive clearance of a living player.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Question for 3J: Who wouldn't kill me in this scenario? Why does this qualm uniquely pertain to you?

In the prior nights you made posts like these:

"I don't believe you're a civilian, Jay. I don't."

"I'll donate to the charity of Jay's choice if he turns out to be a civilian."

"Thanks G-Man for keeping this fiend around."

Et cetera

Any baddie among the other two can be confident entering this phase with you and I alive that your vote won't be landing on them. Then Wilgy especially can count on having been a point of minimal focus from you (with BWT) throughout the game.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don't see a mechanism in the M=R roles that could allow Quin/LoRab to know with certainty that Epi is town. I do however think the Golden post MM highlighted represented a role hint associating him with Gasoline/Sunshine. Since every BTSC-esque interaction I found other than Epi/Boomslang included Golden, that leaves Epi/Boomslang as the only good option for the last BTSC team that I can see.

I don't think Wilgy is the SK because BWT was MIA too long to miss no kills. If the SK is alive it's MM. Either way I think Wilgy is the last mafia. MM's hunting/solving efforts especially this phase look like they come from an uninformed place, either civilian or SK.

[Marmot]

M=F's role check doesn't work in a way that allows for a conclusive clearance of a living player.

What do you mean?

Randomly, one player will be assigned to role check a living player every odd Night. If the checked player is Mafia, it will have a 50% chance to also kill him.

This reads to me like one of the two roles gets the chance to rolecheck a player on odd nights, and if that player is mafia, that player has a 50% chance of dying.

Ricochet: Does M=F learn the role of the player he/she targets on odd nights?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One thing that occurs to me now is that Quin/LoRab could have been 9-15-00 while Epi/Boomslang could be M=R. I'm not sure there's a reason to assume one or the other.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Actually Marmot you might be right. I'd been reading the role for its 50% inconclusivity clause and didn't even register that it also functions purely as a role check.

That's also good for Epi if so.

[Ricochet]

Ricochet: Does M=F learn the role of the player he/she targets on odd nights?

Isn't the ability to role check supposed to be self-explanatory?

[Marmot]

One thing that occurs to me now is that Quin/LoRab could have been 9-15-00 while Epi/Boomslang could be M=R. I'm not sure there's a reason to assume one or the other.

Quin/Sloonei voted for LoRab on Day 3, so I doubt they are 09-15-00.


Thanks Rico!

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If the SK is alive, I think this game is a kingmaker scenario unless the civs can stop a kill. In fact, if it's 2-1-1 with no kill prevention, the only avenue left for a civilian win might be a civilian lynch. I know that's bizarre, so please listen to what I'm saying.

2-1-1. Lynch the SK. Mafia night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch mafia. The SK night kills. 1-1, civs lose.

2-1-1. Lynch civilian. The SK and mafia hopefully night kill each other. 1 civ alive, civs win.

One alternative is if the treble voter is still alive. That could make 1-1 viable.

If it's 3-1, it's still LyLo but the lynch must be Mladic.

[Marmot]

Metalmarsh89

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That's a good look for you MM, to immediately react with a self-vote.

[Marmot]

That's a good look for you MM, to immediately react with a self-vote.

Yeah thanks.

What are you going to do about it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

[Marmot]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

If the SK is still alive, it sounds reasonable (and exactly like the scenario we ran into in the live game last night).

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

If the SK is still alive, it sounds reasonable (and exactly like the scenario we ran into in the live game last night).

Yes that's where the thought stems from. I actually thought in that game the civs were dead and didn't consider the baddie-on-baddie violence that could win them the game.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

[Ricochet]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Rico:

If the game is reduced to one civilian vote and one non-civilian vote, does the game end?

This guy

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It was implied that this game wouldn't make it to Christmas. I think this is LyLo regardless of the alignment ratios. So:

A SK lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1.

A mafia lynch loses the game if it's 2-1-1 and wins the game if it's 3-1.

A civilian lynch loses the game if it's 3-1 and can win the game if it's 2-1-1.

[Marmot]

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

I also don't plan on following through on your idea. I just wanted to see your reaction.

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Well if y'all lynch me I hope the SK is alive. That'd be the civs' only chance.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

What do you think happened with the SK kill then?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'm not convinced the SK is dead. There is evidence, but not enough of it. Namely the fact that Rico said a failed kill would be announced.

I also don't plan on following through on your idea. I just wanted to see your reaction.

Vote JaggedJimmyJay

Another question:

You think the SK is alive, and you think I'm bad.

You're willfully making a vote that within your logical framework would lose the game for the civilians. What?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Y'all can act like this is some hokey attempt at manipulation or you can do basic math.

[Epignosis]

Can anyone see a flaw in that logic or something I'm missing? There are a ton of dynamics to these roles.

I've operated under the belief that 1v1 would result a coin flip as stated in the rules.

What do you think about the SK? Do you think it's still alive?

Epi looks cleared. It's not me. Your self-vote implies you see my reasoning and are opting for sacrifice, and if you were the SK I don't think you'd be so quick to respond that way. Wilgy's slot has been absent and would have missed a kill.

It's either you employing master WIFOM or the SK is just dead. I lean to the latter.

Questions for you.

1) I was quick to self-vote (as I often am). You don't think the SK is still alive, or you think that it's more likely that it's dead, so why would my self-vote be useful?

2) If you are a civilian, why would you not offer yourself up for a lynch first?

1) Your mindset is not the same as my mindset. Your action implies you believe the SK is alive. Do you not?

2) I don't think the SK is alive, meaning the lynch must be Mladic. I think that's Wilgy.

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've operated under the belief that 1v1 would result a coin flip as stated in the rules.

The game will end before Christmas. Today is Christmas Eve.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also, 1v1 with a civilian alive means the control of the lynch has been lost. That's game over in any scenario where there aren't extra votes or lynch protections. Tied tallies result in coin flips, 1v1 isn't a "tied tally", it's an endgame.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

[Epignosis]

Also, 1v1 with a civilian alive means the control of the lynch has been lost. That's game over in any scenario where there aren't extra votes or lynch protections. Tied tallies result in coin flips, 1v1 isn't a "tied tally", it's an endgame.

That's in Kansas. You ain't in Kansas anymore.

[Epignosis]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If you don't think the SK is alive, then who do you think he was? The only options are Quin, Lorab, and sig.

If the SK is dead, it was sig. He was absent too, but also had sporadic log-ins to facilitate sending in kills.

And you believe Trice was trolling?

"Trolling" is not what I'd call it. I do think there was strategic value in it.

Talk me through that strategy, if you please.

I've already done this. Anticipatory play to serve as a recruiting signal and to attach himself to the wrong person when his role is publicized.

[Epignosis]

MM, you voted birdwithteeth11 / Wilgy a few times in the past. What makes 3K a better lynch at this stage than Wilgy?