Guess Who? Mafia

[Marmot]

My essay pairing llama and nijuukyugou together was unsatisfactory.

Needs improvement.

Please see the teacher.

Is partial credit allowed? Because I think the "silent partner" section of my paper is A+.

If anybody complains about my vote going for an inactive, I'll see you after school.

That's the bell.

What about timmer?

[Epignosis]

What about timmer?

This was his last on-topic post:

Timmer, what is your view on llama?

I'm curious about his vows on Hedge. I could see a situation possible where Llama got to ask a question of the host, asked something like "is a baddie wearing a tiara?" And gor a yes. I could see that. Because all I see from hedges three posts is an absent player.

Apart from that I don't really have much in the way of thoughts.

He expressed Interest in whether or not llama got a question against Hedgeowl, but llama said he didn't get a question.

In hindsight, that post strikes me as paranoid. llama always goes after "Hedgebaddie." It's a thing of his.

[Marmot]

Epignosis, remember when nijuu voted for Missing Person because of timmer's case on MP? You came in and pointed out your more original case on MP.

I think there's a connection there, and feel more strongly about it now than I did the other day.

Here, nijuu follows timmer's reasons that Missing Person could be a baddie, and later acknowledges Epignosis's case. My gut feeling here is that nijuu and timmer are baddie partners, and nijuu followed his read of Missing Person because of this, but I could be reading to far into it. Personally, I say bad look for nijuu, but you be the judge.

That was easy. I like this:

Reading back further, the case that was brought out about DDL specifically mentioning that there would be a potential modkill of MP just adds to that. And Daisy suggested that MP should be given at least a day to get settled in, as well, so both of our baddies didn't seem to like the idea of people voting for MP. This may be enough for me to vote him today.

as well as the other supporting points about MP (basically I'm seeing the same thing being said regarding defense of inactives and MP being inactive, etc.). I'll go ahead and vote that way, too.

Epi's post is adequate. It'll do.

[Epignosis]

I don't believe nijuukyugou is bad.

[Marmot]

Did I misunderstand your previous post where you asked for amnesty for potentially being partially correct about a llama/nijuukyugou duo?

[Epignosis]

Did I misunderstand your previous post where you asked for amnesty for potentially being partially correct about a llama/nijuukyugou duo?

Maybe you didn't see that I voted Hedgeowl?

[Marmot]

I take it this lynch does not mean that much to you?

[Epignosis]

I take it this lynch does not mean that much to you?

If that's what you take, then that's what you take.

I am good with my vote.

[Marmot]

I take it this lynch does not mean that much to you?

If that's what you take, then that's what you take.

I am good with my vote.

You took the time to make a case on llama yesterday to justify your vote, even bringing up the fact that he never interacted with nijuukyugou until his late baddie list. You even voted late to observe other voters.

But today you vote Hedgeowl early, with nary a previous suspicion of her.

[Epignosis]

I take it this lynch does not mean that much to you?

If that's what you take, then that's what you take.

I am good with my vote.

You took the time to make a case on llama yesterday to justify your vote, even bringing up the fact that he never interacted with nijuukyugou until his late baddie list. You even voted late to observe other voters.

But today you vote Hedgeowl early, with nary a previous suspicion of her.

You have summed up the situation admirably.

[Marmot]

Thank you.

What is your reason for voting for Hedgeowl?

[Epignosis]

Thank you.

What is your reason for voting for Hedgeowl?

Here we go:

Oh hi guys, what's happening? This game is starting just as I am about to go out of town for Independence Day, so that's awesome. I won't miss votes though, because I CARE!

SVS+Llama = Care Bear

In this post, she says she won't miss votes because she cares. This is the emptiest promise I've heard since Obama was up for reelection.

Big voting fail! So sorry, but blanked on 24 hours and had guests too late by the time I realized my error.

Sorry to see you go TH, since I didn't get to play with you at all really.

Big voting fail. Like the Obama voters. Right?

I see I am not the only vote loser. Sorry, this weekend got way too busy and my little guy has decided bedtimes are for babies, so my evening mafia time has been usurped.

Back in the saddle this week though. congrats on the lynch to everyone who took him down!

This post mentions saddles and lynches, so I can only conclude that Hedgeowl is a white supremacist.

Vote fail again...Sorry this voting while I make dinner clearly isn't working for me. I will try voting earlier, but it's always hard to do in 24 hr games when so much happens right at the lynch. Catching up and voting in Bullets now, but will do reading tonight. Sorry to be the invisible person this game.

Linki hey good job everyone!

Voting while she made dinner. Bet it was bean dip.

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

I am basically a mafia fail right now. We are leaving for 10 days tomorrow to Wisconsin and I have been working like crazy to get us all ready. Plus have an all day workshop today and tomorrow. I apologize to everyone and Elo for my total not cutting it this game. I dont think its going to get any better on vacation since we will be with a lot of family all week long.

Now Hedgeowl is a Scott Walker devotee. Some loyalty there.

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

Oh please, I havent even read the thread from last lynch and I can tell you're bad. You're going for the low hanging fruit apparently, conveniently using the Hedgebaddie nickname once again, but actually targeting me as if that makes it some how legitimate and your vote for BR last lynch was so slim shady Eminem was embarrassed for you. Just looking at the poll, you can take no credit for lynching daisy and tied up BR when daisy had two votes.

This is the first suspicion Hedgeowl named. thellama73 was good. Black Rock was good.

Hedgeowl mentions low hanging fruit, so she must be with the GREEN party now.

Plus there are llama droppings for manure.

Here is a llama movie.

Too bad the llama is not a symbol of a political party in this country. I could make a lot of comments.

Good thing I don't have to worry about you voting for me then, O for Four.

I'll think about making an exception for my good friend rama llama baddie-dingdong.

llama is bad. Still didn't vote.

Yes, yes, three people keep saying they wouldn't mind seeing me lynched, but there has been very little talk of why. You don't like that I like to lynch non-participants, you don't like that I am a bit flippant, I get it. Those are emotional responses, not good reasons for a lynch.

If there are three of us, then I'll be interested to see which one of us you decide to kill tonight sir!

Such discourse plants her firmly in the camp of the North Koreans.

I believe Hedgeowl is Mafia. I have used her posts to show how that is.

[Epignosis]

Now, a question for you, MM:

You seemed not to notice that I had voted for Hedgeowl, and proceeded with assumptions around timmer and nijuu. When I clarified about Hedgeowl, you insinuated that I don't care about this lynch, posted the eye, and then asked for the reason I voted Hedgeowl.

What are your current thoughts on Hedgeowl?

[Marmot]

Golden, get in here. This is lylo!

[Golden]

Hey everyone. Been fully involved in endgame of RYM87. Need a short mafia break but will be in here to catch up etc later tonight.

@linki - MM, I need at least a couple of hours to do some other stuff. But yes, I know, lylo, it's important, so once I've had my little break, all my attention is here.

[Marmot]

Now, a question for you, MM:

You seemed not to notice that I had voted for Hedgeowl, and proceeded with assumptions around timmer and nijuu. When I clarified about Hedgeowl, you insinuated that I don't care about this lynch, posted the eye, and then asked for the reason I voted Hedgeowl.

What are your current thoughts on Hedgeowl?

I am at a loss for words.

[Marmot]

Hey everyone. Been fully involved in endgame of RYM87. Need a short mafia break but will be in here to catch up etc later tonight.

@linki - MM, I need at least a couple of hours to do some other stuff. But yes, I know, lylo, it's important, so once I've had my little break, all my attention is here.

Go get 'em tiger.

[timmer]

Going through and doing some read backs now. I have to say, I'm not a fan of 24 hour days, I've never been a big speed game guy, and now I'm remembering why...

I just back through Golden. I'm trying to understand something.

This post (a bit abridged):

And *sigh* - I mean, I can't really defend the same thing over and over, but I'll ask you to do one single thing...

Show me how there is any chance that my vote for MP protects DDL.

TH wasn't playing
I guess there is a chance hedgeowl would show up, but she hadn't yet.
The only person who possibly was yet to vote and might have actually shown at that point was Missing Person, would he have voted himself?

And besides that, I literally voted so late in the day that it really wasn't leaving time for anyone to show up and vote.

Using that vote against me is like... I mean even before, I asked you specifically 'how could have I played that vote as good' and you basically conceded that point.

So how can you still use that vote as a legitimate reason to vote me? I don't understand?!

Which lynch are you talking about here... Day 1?

Here's the key votes:

Day 1

Poll ended at Thu Jul 02, 2015 8:32 pm

Dragon D. Luffy
3
Epignosis (7), nijuukyugou (8), fingersplints (11)
20%

Golden
2
Metalmarsh89 (4), Roxy (9)
13%

Missing Person
3
Dragon D. Luffy (12), Ricochet (13), Golden (15)
20%

spacedaisy
1
timmer (5)
7%

Turnip Head
4
thellama73 (2), G-Man (3), Black Rock (10), Spacedaisy (14)
27%

I would just like some clarity about your point regarding your vote. In the part I bolded above, you seem to be making the point that there is nothing wrong with your vote, because it does not appear to be a direct save of DDL. Is this correct?

Because you ALSO admit that you voted very near to the end of the deadline, AND you admit that there weren't many people left who were likely to vote, ya? And, incidentally, from checking the posts where you guys listed your votes, you and space daisy apparently voted about 3 minutes apart.

So, my problem here is... your vote is, to ME, the very epitome of the kind of low-level risk baddie often makes.

- About ten minutes to go.
- Daisy, a baddie, likely shows up in BTSC, chats a bit, decides to vote TH to put him ahead of DDL.
- You admit that there was really no one left likely to vote.
- Why NOT place a vote on MP, if you are bad? It isn't that far-fetched? You feel safe, you feel like "okay, DDL will make it, I think" and so... what. You can either put your vote on TH which will provide a tiny extra bit of a guarantee but it would also show you as being the person who cemented the lynch. You can't vote DDL without tying it up, so, to me, a vote for MP is the obvious choice no? You semi-protect DDL with it because if someone randomly does show up at the last second, you've given DDL a small extra chance that that late voter will vote MP and further protect him. To me, it's a perfectly calibrated potential baddie move.

I say all of this, because is it your stance in your previous posts that your vote for MP shows that you AREN'T bad? I'd need you to counter my above points, if you are going to get me to believe that.

[timmer]

The big question re: Golden, for me, is Daisy's low-level pushing of him.

She had five nothing posts on Day 1 and then this beast, with about 12 minutes to go in the day:

I'm having ipad issues. Irritating.

Here are my thoughts thus far...

Roxy and Splints: I don't find anything weird about their statements regarding MP and I don't find it weird how they have stated them or been in agreement. It pretty much lines up with what I have seen of them in the past. They are always thick as theives so I don't find any reason to suspect them here.

Golden: I kind of agree with others about you. You seem to be reaching with your suspicions. That said, civ Golden can be a great guy to keep around, so I want to be sure before I cast a vote for him. But I will be keeping an eyeball there. You are probably my number two option today.

DDL: I don't understand this case. Because he assumed a host would modkill someone who did not put up an avatar he must be bad? Have we asked the host for confirmation about what would happen? If she is going to modkill MP, then I can totally see DDL being suspicious. but if she is not I don't really get what the basis of this case is.

Missing Person: I see why there are those that would want to lynch him. His lack of avatar cripples any advantage we have to suss out the baddies through the use of the questions. We can neither incriminate him nor clear him. However, he is here, or at least trying to be. So I would like to give him at least this first cycle to see if he gets an avatar up.

Turnip Head: My vote is likely going here. The reason being that he is simply not here at all. If we wait until tomorrow's lynch to eliminate him then we risk him getting his P Score dinged, because I believe I read in the beginning that you can only miss two lynches this game. He has clearly been AWOL from everything here, so I have to assume he can't be here for whatever reason, so I think he is the best lynch today. Additionally, I take the stance that a non participator only hurts the civs. If he is a Civ, he is not using his vote so it is essentially lowering our numbers by one by default. The baddies are not going to kill him, because he helps them. My vote is going here.

Timmer, I ain't even mad.

So she calls Golden her "#2" suspicion, but with just over ten minutes to go and a baddie partner to protect, that statement means nothing. Daisy was bad, none of her suspicions above were legit.

So the question, for me, is whether she would continue to list Golden as suspicious if he were her teammate.

Day 2 Daisy questioned Golden about his case against MM that MM had deliberately tried to change the intent of Golden's post by selectively trimming it. She then made a "statement vote" against Golden.

Well that statement vote came after DDL's fate was sealed. Daisy was the last vote of the day, so here this could easily be a baddie continuing a low-level campaign against a teammate.

Day 3 is interesting. Daisy wanted to vote BR but missed the deadline. This is her post that listed the vote but came too late:

I voted for Daisy because I want to live.

Back at you cowgirl. I don't really want to die frankly.

This is a lot of silliness imo. Yep, I voted turnip day 1. Llama and Epi, did I not just express the same thoughts to the mods about non participants and how it makes the most sense to vote them out rather than let them hang around handicapping the civs? And given all the hub bub around someone as invested in the site as turnip head getting his p score dinged, I don't see why this is such a surprising vote. Given how DDL flipped, yes I can see why that is working against me. But my vote yesterday was not intended to lead a charge on anyone and save DDL, obviously. I was the last voter with minutes to spare. I was making a statement. I don't trust Golden and I think you all would be well advised to not trust him either. More on this later should I live. Because unfortunately to save my life I have to vote BR... I hope you are bad, but I know I'm not.

Splints, you said it would look bad for me if I had voted DDL. This is horse manure. I have many times voted along with a train, regardless of my alignment and regardless of if I suspected them. If I don't see a better reason to vote somewhere else then I certainly will. I voted where I did for exactly the reason I said.

Now, I apologize for not being in here more. Between work and wedding planning it gets the better of me, especially with 24 hour days.

Voting BR.

Now, let's think about this. BR's post, that Daisy links at the start, was posted 30 minutes before the lynch poll closed. Daisy came in early enough to see BR's post, and decide to reply to it. Her reply came exactly as the poll closed. Now that's a LONG FREAKING POST. Like, really long. It's particularly long in light of the fact that Daisy OBVIOUSLY was aware of her status in the poll.

So let's put on our "i'm a baddie" hat for a second. If you honestly know that you are down in a lynch poll 4 votes to 2, and you honestly plan to vote the person with 2 votes to try to save yourself, but you ALSO have this huge post to write what do you do? You vote first, correct? Or, at least, you keep an eye on the clock and if need be, you open a second tab and get that vote in before deadline. What you do NOT do is write a post this long and miss the poll.

You DO though, if you're bad, write this kind of post if you know you are toast and plan to use your post for a different purpose. Note the bolded part. The ENTIRE post is Daisy covering her vote history... except the sentences about Golden. Once again, with Daisy clearly knowing her words were coming too late to accomplish anything, she tries to put out a lightweight suspicion of Golden. There is no honest point to it. She knew, I think, she was going under. She missed the deadline writing a monster post full of defences that she had to know were about to be proven false. And there dis this random suspicion of Golden again. If she flips bad, why would we ever follow her comments about him? But if she KNOWS that, why put these "I'm eyeing Golden" content into play? To me, it seems like an engineered WIFOM.

And it's even followed by this:

Oh and golden. I'm not defending MM, I'm calling you out on twisting things. If I do live, I well show you exactly what I mean. In the meantime, I'm tired from work and need to make dinner. Please don't make the mistake of lynching me.

written one minute after the poll deadline.

Even IF somehow she was unaware that she had blown the deadline with the first post, she HAD to have then tried to vote and realized that she had missed it. And yet, she still wrote the second post even though she thus knew she was dead. I'll say that again. If she tried to vote after the first post, she thus wrote the second post knowing she was a dead about-to-be-confirmed-baddie. And she still chose to call out Golden.

Long story short (too late), Daisy's posts point to one of Golden or MM being bad, without a doubt. Either her constant picking at Golden was a WIFOM-y plan to mention your partner but never put him in harm's way, or MM is the partner and Daisy just simply stuck with her Golden "suspicions" even after she realized that she was toast.

I've got to read MM now to combine the two halves of this.

[timmer]

And one other thing I need to do... let's look at the Day 1 lynch, with known civs removed.

Dragon D. Luffy
3
Epignosis (7), nijuukyugou (8), fingersplints (11)
20%

Golden
2
Metalmarsh89 (4), Roxy (9)
13%


Missing Person
3
Dragon D. Luffy (12), Ricochet (13), Golden (15)
20%

spacedaisy
1
timmer (5)
7%

Turnip Head
4
thellama73 (2), G-Man (3), Black Rock (10), Spacedaisy (14)
27%

I find the strike-outs quite illuminating.

First, they tell me nijuu is almost certainly NOT bad. With two votes on TH and 1 on Golden and 1 on DDL, putting a second vote that early onto DDL just doesn't fit a baddie teammate move.

Second, it puts doubt on Epignosis being bad, since with so few votes in at the time, it seems like a risky move to start a campaign on a temmate DDL.

Third, I don't think it is possible to get a good read on either MM's vote here, or technically my own. (I know I'm a civ, but in the interests of fair play, I'm grouping my vote in here). Either MM's or my vote could be bad, in that at the time, no baddie seemed to be in peril. (And mine was randomed, so it wasn't like I was starting anything about Daisy, really).

Lastly, they show both DDL and Daisy voting in the later stages of the day. But they also show that Daisy jumped onto a bandwagon where none of her friends were. So the baddies seemed to be operating late. I note also again that Golden's vote came late as well. Worth noting is that DDL started the MP bandwagon. Yes, MP had been talked about by several people that day, but DDL started it. Lt's think about why? If Golden is also bad, it provides him and DDL both with an out, doesn't it? The baddies obviously chose NOT to put all of their eggs on the TH lynch, to not get exposed. We KNOW this as Daisy is the only one. But look at DDL's decision here.

I'll bold this for effect: DDL was ahead on the lynch 3 votes to 2 against Golden with about 30 minutes left in the day. DDL was bad. DDL could easily have found a way to vote Golden OR TH to save his bacon but he DIDN'T. He instead STARTED a lynch train against MP, which Golden then JOINED. We KNOW the baddies chose not to dog pile onto TH, but we ALSO see both DDL and Golden able to protect themselves by voting the other, and yet neither did.

I'm increasingly seeing my vote going to Golden.

Let me state this one ore way. Golden voted with ten minutes left or so, and at the time he had to make a decision, the vote was 3-2-2-3, since Daisy voted roughly at the same time as him, her vote wouldn't have shown yet. if Golden is civ, and he had two votes, and he had previously said THIS:

I'll vote for Missing Person if he doesn't post an avatar by end of day. I think getting the avatar in is far more urgent than posting in the thread, unless we can ask as someone suggested if the person has no features at all. The thing that bothers me is that MP can tailor his avatar to his affiliation now, and it gives him an advantage.

I'm not averse to a vote for TH - he has vanished from the site between when he posted his avatar and now, and I see no reason to think he will be back soon or even know the game is on. Aside from that, his avatar is one of the singular most difficult ones to be proving is mafia through questioning, and I don't think it's a bad idea to weed that out in the absence of a clear suspect.

Can anyone tell me that he wouldn't have voted TH as a self-preservation move? Or at least mentioned something ABOUT self-preservation?

I don't like it. I'm heading to bed now and will read MM tomorrow. Golden I'd love to hear a rebuttal, and I'd like to hear form others about this.

[Golden]

@timmer - there is no way I think I can make my day one vote look particularly good. I was throwing my toys at llama a bit because of the heat I was being put under in RYM87. I just didn't like that I made the best defence I could of that vote, he came back basically like 'thats a good defence', and then voted for me for the exact reason he had said before I even tried. I asked him to specifically make a particular part of the case, and he chose not to, and it was bumming.

All I can really say about my day one vote is this - I said very early on that I would be voting MP if he didn't put his avatar up. I left it as late as I could. Then I voted for MP because he hadn't. When I first flagged this, I had no idea what the vote situation was going to look like when I got to that point, but I'd signalled that's what I was going to do and I followed through, I would have no matter what, and the vote looks bad in hindsight. Que Sera.

And the best case I have for why it isn't SO bad, is that I guess any votes that came in after me, which I think were admittedly unlikely, I had no control over where they went. MP could have come in and voted DDL, is my point. He was the only remaining person who had actually shown up in the game who hadn't voted. I didn't know he would be an absentee for the lynch. He showed up only minutes after it. It's the best I can do.

Oh, another point for you though, I'm not sure you are aware of this. It's certainly not not insurmountable (PMs), but something you should be aware of if you are not already. I can't access Chatzy at work. I can't make intricate plots in the dying minutes of a lynch.

Second post - Daisy's low level pushing of me bothered me a lot, and I think it was deliberately designed to get people to try to lynch me after her. That's how it felt to me.

Linki - third post. That bit you quoted was something I said really early in the day, well before self-preservation came into it. Look here, what I said later on day one:

I still was intending to vote MP for having no avatar, but I can see I may have to use my vote self-defensively, so I'm holding it for now.

And yes, I absolutely would have voted TH, DDL or anyone else as a self-preservation move.

[Golden]

At the point I voted, I was quite comfortable that I was no longer having to worry about self-preservation.

[Golden]

Now I have to keep my wife company for a bit, but I've caught up, and I have to say epi's stuff boggles my mind. And I really want to put proper work into reading everyone back. I understand that a big part of what may happen today is I need to be defensive, and that's ok, but I only have so much time and I'd really like to use a good chunk of it to read back on others.

[Golden]

Seems I have a little more time than I thought, so I'm going to start looking back at people now.

First things first - I don't feel the need to read back hedgeowl. I think epi may have quoted every single post. I don't see anything there. Right now the only thing I have is 'am I to believe epi has info on hedgeowl'. He can only have info on one out of ninja and hedge, not both, so I really don't know if he is trying to get at one of those things, or if he is just being epi.

Which is really more of a read on epi than on hedgeowl anyway. I'll come back to epi later.

I doubt hedge has been placing the kills (would she need to?) She proclaimed llama was bad when everyone else did. Not much more to see.

[Golden]

Ninja

I've really not looked at ninja hardly at all since DDL died because her day one vote is so good. I still mostly feel that way. It gave him an even share of the vote lead.

I notice in the read back she was agreeing with me on MM for a time. The only person I remembered doing that was Roxy. That's interesting. She cast suspicion in MMs direction, but then voted BR.

The only thing ninja really ever says about timmer is to jump on his case for MP, but I'm not sure why that would look bad for timmer. I'll see when I read timmer, but for now, I don't see MMs case for a ninja/timmer team.

Ninja's day one vote does look good, and for me it is the biggest thing in her favour, but she never mentions daisy at all. I could see the following teams having potential

Ninja/hedgeowl (not necessarily likely, just nothing preventing it)
Ninja/MM - this one actually feels like it has merit, but it doesn't explain epi's posts today.
Ninja/epi - would require some epic bussing of DDL on day one, but if the team was going to bus DDL, I guess it's possible. Will see what I think after reading epi.

That's me for now, now the wife really DOES call. The other three of you will take more work.

[Golden]

Timmer

Did vote for daisy on day one. As far as ambivalent votes go, this one wouldn't be bad as a distancing tactic.

This is the first 24 hour day game I've played in forever, I just realized the deadline is coming. I have no idea who to vote for. I don't get any bad vibes from Roxy, splints, Dragon, MP, Epig or llama. I'm going to vote for space daisy as she didn't really contribute and it's as good as a pure random for the moment.

This is actually something I find really interesting, in light of timmer's case he just made on me. This is on day five. Timmer has been mostly absent and hasn't said much up to that point, so that is not really a point in favour or against him.

I've just reread the Golden/MM posts, and I'm quite ambivalent about them both. Golden is right that MM snipped his post, but MM also seems right that there were logical reasons to do so (he only wanted to comment on one part of the post). I've done this myself though I usually put a (post snipped) type of comment on it.

MM is also right that it's odd that Daisy seemed to refer to MM halfway through a post about Golden in a way that suggested a prior conversation, but I don't necessarily agree that that makes Golden look bad. Anyone could have talked to Daisy in BTSC about Golden and MM. In short, I'm not likely to vote either of them today.

Now, day five - this is after daisy has died. Timmer's view of daisy's stuff about me at that point is it doesn't necessarily make either me or MM bad, and it could have been planted as a result of conversation with anyone.

Today, he says it is evidence that either MM or I must be bad.

I think this is a pretty big turn around - timmer, why the turnaround?

Then he misinterpreted a response I made to him, and today he has made a case on me which for he most part I can understand although the last post did contain something that wasn't true. He could have simply missed it, or he could have intentionally left it out.

And that's pretty much it. There actually isn't a lot of content to timmer's posts. In his favour, he lead the daisy lynch, so like ninja he would have had to bus.

But - I think everyone should read timmer back and form their own view. Especially in light of his case for me today. Because daisy's comments about me have pinged me for a long time, I think she set out to set up a lynch of me back when she was going down, and now timmer has come back and laid down the case on me, and having read timmer back I think this could be a planned move, especially given that he specifically said he didn't find me or MM suspicious for it at the time.

[Golden]

I'm not seeing a whole lot there on hedge and ninja, but before doing that read back, I would have said timmer was probably the least likely person to be bad, and now I think there is a real chance he is bad.

Epi and MM have to wait for tomorrow.

Oh, who could timmer teammates be?

Well, I know I said I'm not seeing the timmer/ninja thing after reading ninja, but honestly either that combo or timmer/hedge would work. So could timmer/epi actually. The combo which seems less likely is timmer/MM. If that was a seed for timmer to come after me later, I think he was also intending to keep it open to go against MM.

But, I'll see what I think about that after I read MM.

I think I'll do MM last, because he is the person who I've already had the most focus on and I already know what I think about him.

[Golden]

I just had a look and both epi and MM only have two pages of posts.

This is so much easier to do than the other games.

[Marmot]

Day 2 Daisy questioned Golden about his case against MM that MM had deliberately tried to change the intent of Golden's post by selectively trimming it. She then made a "statement vote" against Golden.

For the record, I did not try to deliberatetly change the intent of Golden's post, that was just how I understood it.

[Marmot]

Seems I have a little more time than I thought, so I'm going to start looking back at people now.

First things first - I don't feel the need to read back hedgeowl. I think epi may have quoted every single post. I don't see anything there. Right now the only thing I have is 'am I to believe epi has info on hedgeowl'. He can only have info on one out of ninja and hedge, not both, so I really don't know if he is trying to get at one of those things, or if he is just being epi.

Which is really more of a read on epi than on hedgeowl anyway. I'll come back to epi later.

I doubt hedge has been placing the kills (would she need to?) She proclaimed llama was bad when everyone else did. Not much more to see.

I think I know what I see here.

Epignosis asked a question. He asked if a member of mafia is wearing a tiara.

And Hedgeowl would not have to be placing the kills. But note that she has showed up to post just after each deadline except for the last one, so she has certainly been around to send in a nightkill if she needed to.

[Marmot]

I have come to the conclusion that at least two of these players are mafia.

• Epignosis
  Golden
  Hedgeowl
  nijuukyugou
  timmer

I ruled Epignosis off of this the other day, and I still believe he doesn't belong.

I considered nijuukyugou as a baddie, but I don't feel strongly about it.

So right now, I have it narrowed down to Golden, timmer, and Hedgeowl.

[Dragon D. Luffy]

I have come to the conclusion that at least two of these players are mafia.

• Epignosis
  Golden
  Hedgeowl
  nijuukyugou
  timmer

OMG, you cracked the game. My team can't possibly win now

We have a master detective in our presence, folks

[Marmot]

If you weren't dead I'd go Master Detective all over you right now.

[Marmot]

Each instance DDL interacted with or talked about timmer.

Spoiler: show

If she puts an avatar or gets replaced, we'll then be able to ask questions about her avatar. Problem solved.

I'm more suspicious of people who try to direct the game's attention into lynching inactives.

Hey Dragon, to get serious for a second here, you ARE aware that you made this post before Missing Person had posted, right? So technically, you were trying to direct the game's attention... into lynching an inactive.

No, I was trying to direct the game's attention into suspecting someone who was suspecting the inactive (llama).

Technically you could say I was helping make more people pay attention to MP, but that was the side effect, not the goal.

...

timmer: Not the most active poster, but made some interesting points in his posts. His vote was pretty weird, being a possibly very easy vote for a mafioso, or even a bussing, but he said so little it's hard to get a read. I'd like to see more before making a read.

Each instance DDL interacted with or talked about Golden.

Spoiler: show

The game is kind of dead so I'll try to post some quick reads on each player. Hopefully this will get some discussion going.

...

Golden: One of the most active players in the game, despite his multiple claims that he is not having time to play. Has argued with other players a lot, specially Roxy, and then voted MP after a lot of spceulation about him. So far seems to be a player who is trying to look at the game from multiple standpoints and solve it, which looks civilian at first hand. But I know Golden is more than capable of faking civilian behavior, and following other's opinions to stay with the flow of the game. I'll be careful before I label him town again. So far looks neutral to me.

...

I disagree with you guys, there was, at some point, a momentum for a Golden lynch. Call the reasoning for the posts random if you want, but he was leading the lynch at a point. The votes were there, and at least Roxy was fully on board with it, arguing with him and calling him mafia.

The momentum was short-lived though, which could mean that mafia managed to change the attention of the game to other targets, or could be simply mean the momentum was not strong enough.

I want to vote MM, and would do so if I thought I could definitely do it safely right now. But I'm wary of the possibility of needing to use my vote in self-defence again, so I'm holding it for now.

@DDL - I was third to get to equal two votes, which I suppose you could call 'leading' but really I believe momentum is better judged by the thread.

The whole thing is subjective, but you can't say there was "zero" momentum. There was some, and THEN it died down.

Vote anaylsis. Thread analysis. Two different things. It's great to see where they align and where they don't.

I'm more and more seeing a vote for DDL as a possibility here.

Sure thing. But the one I'm talking about is the former, not the later.

And the former is the one that gets baddies killed, not the later. The former would require a save from mafia if more people listened to Roxy and decided to take you down. Talk about the thread all you want, if one or two small voters suddenly showed up and said they wanted you dead, you'd be dead. You can't hide that.

DDL, you style does feel different to economics. In that game, it felt like you were quite perceptive to me, and you set out making perceptive posts to shine a light in different directions. I'm not seeing that here, it feels more like you are fighting arguments in your corner and refusing to see other perspectives even when people are making legitimate counter points.

I'm not gonna change my opinions just because somebody said they see them as evidence for me being scum. If you wanna convince me of something, do that with otes, not just threatening to lynch me.

I'm kind of typing fast here so I can keep arguing with everyone and I'm making some mistakes.

That mistake was a pretty big one, no?

In any event, you weren't hearing arguments anyway. I said you were "refusing to see other perspectives even when people are making legitimate counter points". Thats my point. People WERE making legitimate counter points, and I think economics DDL would have considered them more carefully.

The biggest black mark against you, though, from my perspective, was jumping on the G-Man comment about there being momentum in voting for me yesterday. Because no matter how you slice it, if you read the thread it's clear that there just wasn't.

I may listen to your counter points but I have no obligation to agree with them. Yes, I'm a stubborn person. Deal with it.

Based on just these interactions alone, timmer looks far worse than Golden. DDL's and timmer's only direct interaction came on a post that was apparently misunderstood.

The interactions between Golden and DDL look sincere to me, and that is just from reading DDL's side of the interactions.

[timmer]

Reading back, I see that Epignosis has summed up Hedgeowl nicely. the last nice I had looked into her posts, there were three, each apologizing for missing the vote. Then she came around and Epig has captured the situation well. Especially in light of both DDL's and Daisy's comments about inactive players, I could see them fretting at the time about an absent Hedgeowl. In light of that, I'd be okay with a Hedgeowl lynch today. I still feel it unlikely that either epig or nijuu is bad.

@Golden, thanks for the comments. The only thing I need to say in reply is that I was away for a bunch of days, so in catching up a few of my views have certainly shifted a bit. Had I been around, you'd have seen posts where my views started to shift etc but since I was gone and now am back, I'm simply going right to how I feel about things NOW.

[timmer]

Reading MM now.

A question for you about this ISO of Hedge you previously did:

Skipping Golden for now because I'm getting tired. Here comes Hedgeowl. 9 posts!

Apologizes for not being around for the Day 1 lynch. Nothing else to see here really.

Spoiler: show

Big voting fail! So sorry, but blanked on 24 hours and had guests too late by the time I realized my error.

Sorry to see you go TH, since I didn't get to play with you at all really.

Misses another vote. Day 1 all over again.

Spoiler: show

I see I am not the only vote loser. Sorry, this weekend got way too busy and my little guy has decided bedtimes are for babies, so my evening mafia time has been usurped.

Back in the saddle this week though. congrats on the lynch to everyone who took him down!

Day 3 vote fail. I don't think she has figured out the vote deadline yet.

Spoiler: show

Vote fail again...Sorry this voting while I make dinner clearly isn't working for me. I will try voting earlier, but it's always hard to do in 24 hr games when so much happens right at the lynch. Catching up and voting in Bullets now, but will do reading tonight. Sorry to be the invisible person this game.

Linki hey good job everyone!

Day 4, same thing. That's four posts in a row of no contribution and apologizing for missing the deadline.

Spoiler: show

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

I am basically a mafia fail right now. We are leaving for 10 days tomorrow to Wisconsin and I have been working like crazy to get us all ready. Plus have an all day workshop today and tomorrow. I apologize to everyone and Elo for my total not cutting it this game. I dont think its going to get any better on vacation since we will be with a lot of family all week long.

But this next post is good. I think Hedgeowl hit the nail on the head with llama. The lynch of Missing Person was a failure; if we learned something please someone point it out. I will look at it later if I get a chance. Anyway, after lynching an inactive for a slightly good reason, why go after a non-voter for no good reason? I have not seen anyone offer a good reason to lynch Hedgeowl, and I know llama wants to lynch her the most. So I think Hedgeowl is right in her reaction, though it does not excuse her four days of sub-par play. We need to hear more from her.

Spoiler: show

Boo!

Hedgebaddie is so going down tomorrow.

Oh yes use the strategy that worked so well for you in the last 2 low poster lynches.

Gambler's fallacy.

Oh please, I havent even read the thread from last lynch and I can tell you're bad. You're going for the low hanging fruit apparently, conveniently using the Hedgebaddie nickname once again, but actually targeting me as if that makes it some how legitimate and your vote for BR last lynch was so slim shady Eminem was embarrassed for you. Just looking at the poll, you can take no credit for lynching daisy and tied up BR when daisy had two votes.

Addendum: We would love to hear more from Hedgeowl. If I were forced to choose, I would list her as a civilian read.

You seemed pretty forgiving of Hedge here. How do you feel about her in light of how the llama lynch went, and Epig's sudden vote on her today? (Sorry if you have a later post that covers this, I'm still catching up)

[timmer]

So MM's posts, taken as a whole, aren't screaming bad to me. He's been fairly active, made cases, defended pretty well against Golden when Golden was pushing about how MM had trimmed a post, ISO'd people... in short, I'd have to be strongly convinced to vote his way today, I'm not seeing a baddie.

I'm discounting Epig and nijuu today largely due to their votes against DDL early on. Their posts, apart form that, are more neutral overall, but those votes are pretty important, imo.

I'll be voting either Golden or Hedgeowl. Back later...

[Marmot]

My gut reaction was civilian, but I also thought llama was mafia.

Currently, I think she could be bad for reasons I've already stated about Epignosis. But this is based on an assumption about Epignosis. As bizarre as this sounds, I believe that there is a good chance that she is bad, but I don't feel comfortable lynching her today.

[timmer]

Do you think, in light of how both DDL and Daisy had not liked the idea of voting inactives, that that could indicate an absent Hedge teammate?

[G-Man]

Dear Living Players,

No offense to any of you who may be fans, but I find myself tiring of this Doctor Who marathon. I couldn't garner any interest in revivng the comedy act, nor could I convince anyone to join me in rehearsing a drama. With nothing to do but watch crudely-produced British sci-fi, I pulled a mutiny of sorts.

It turns out TurnipHead has been sleeping on top of a tablet computer all this time. I only found it because I wanted to stretch out too but the floor wasn't cutting it anymore. I uncerimoniously dumped our dear turnipy friend onto the floor. Lo and behold, there was the tablet!

While everyone else watches the Doctor change for the fifth or sixth time (seriously, I'm losing track), I've been surfing the web. The nerd in me was drawn to the World Health Organization website. There are a number of educational yet alarming reports there. I did pretty well in biology, so the terminology hasn't bothered me too much.

We're still placing bets as to the identities of the final mafia members. Seriously guys...

TTFN,

-G

[timmer]

I'm feeling comfortable with a Hedge lynch. I'm also taking pause at the fact that MM agrees with the idea of Hedge being bad but won't vote her. That pause pulls me away slightly from the idea of a Golden lynch. So there it is.

[Golden]

OK, I'm heading back to read epi, but this is now in an interesting position where timmer has voted hedgeowl as well as epi.

Given it's lylo, I don't feel great that two votes are already in when I feel like I'm nowhere near ready to make up my mind.

[Golden]

I read epi back.

The thing that is most in his favour is obvious. He didn't just vote for DDL the first two days, he went after him fairly hard from the outset.

The one squiggly ear moment is that he did defend daisy as not being on team DDL.

The one interaction that seemed more or less missing was an epi/MM interaction. Given the votes that have already happened, I guess if the baddies are Epi and MM it's well played, good game.

Today's epi I find a little confusing. He simultaneously clears ninja AND suspects hedgeowl, and I can only see how he would be able to know one of those two although I think if this really is info it's more likely he asked about hedgeowl rather than ninja, giving the timing of the vote.

The thing I'm most wary of here is a ninja/epi pairing that bussed DDL. Again, if that's the pairing, like with Epi/MM, we are already in trouble.

Epi does look the most civ out of everyone I've iso'd so far, though.

[Marmot]

I was given the oppurtunity to ask a question after Night 3.

I have trouble believing that Epignosis faked doing so for Night 4.

[Marmot]

To expound, I have tried to think of a reason that Epignosis would have come in with this wild case on Hedgeowl while also being a baddie, and I can't think of a logical one.

[Marmot]

I'm going to have to decide on my vote in the next hour or so.

Right now, I think any pairing of Epignosis or timmer with nijuu, Golden, or myself is off the table, because any such pairing that doesn't include Hedgeowl would be an automatic win (on the relatively safe assumption that Hedgeowl will miss the vote).

So the baddie team could be Epignosis and timmer

OR

Any combination of Golden, myself, and nijuu

OR

Hedgeowl with anybody else.



Thoughts?

[Golden]

To expound, I have tried to think of a reason that Epignosis would have come in with this wild case on Hedgeowl while also being a baddie, and I can't think of a logical one.

Yeah, I'm in the same boat, and that has me leaning towards hedgeowl.

Here is what I was thinking on my way to work.

Based on the way this has shaken out, there is only two ways I could legitimately vote and hope for this to work out.

Votes for you (MM), me and ninja are essentially off the table, since the one suspected would just vote hedge in self defence anyway. For this reason, I've decided not to ISO MM today anyway, because it's pointless.

That leaves two options.

1) Trust epi, vote for hedge
2) Vote for one of timmer and epi

Based on my reading back of everyone, I find timmer the more suspicious one.

And, looking at your time stamp, it appears your hour is nearly up. So what do you think?

[Golden]

Come back, MM!

Turn up, ninja!

[Marmot]

Voting for timmer. Sorry I couldn't be around to chat.

[nijuukyugou]

Come back, MM!

Turn up, ninja!

I'm here! I've been traveling/on vacation with the family since Saturday, so my schedule is slightly less free and I've caught up. I think.

I'm having a helluva time deciding who to vote for, but I'm leaning towards Hedge. Epi's actual case/pointing out Hedge's posts isn't actually what's convincing (I'm actually a bit confused as to what he's going for), but the fact that it is like that, and the comment made about why he would suddenly make this case and totally forget about me makes me think, like others, that he probably asked a question and got the answer he wanted. Epi doesn't usually back off my case that easily :P

I'm processing y'all's analyses of each other currently. One moment I'm convinced someone is bad, then a defense comes along and I'm back to square one. I'll just need to do my own legwork, I suppose, if I want a definite answer for myself.

MM, you've been asked this, but I'm curious too - if you're suspicious of Hedge today, why are you particularly hesitant to vote her? Absenteeism?

Linki -