[TOWN WIN] Cool Bug Mafia

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oh I see that's what you meant by "lost wolf"

[Wiml]

If the following people could provide link representative games of the listed alignments like JJJ did earlier then I'd appreciate it greatly:

@DrWilgy - Town
@Epignosis - Mafia
@falcon45ca - Mafia (not the recent one)
@Kate - Mafia
@Quin - Both
@Roxy - Both

Sorry for the mass ping!

In the last year, I've been mafia 3 times. Once I was very sick with covid and barely remember the game (felt) the other 2 I was a lone wolf (scooby doo and se7en). Which one would you like to see?

@JaggedJimmyJay

Kate seemed to consider it as being mafia here which is why I looked into the game for an extra sample. I haven't actually read the game myself atm.

[Wiml]

Oh I see that's what you meant by "lost wolf"

Yeah, I was referring to a non-pack member wolf.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I do think being uninformed is a completely different beast. It's a lot easier to post when you have no clue.

Anyway, it's not worth dwelling on at this point. Kate is in my POE regardless of volume. I am considering Kate/Abigail as a difference check now (insert obligatory "or some softer version of that term").

[Wiml]

I do think being uninformed is a completely different beast. It's a lot easier to post when you have no clue.

Anyway, it's not worth dwelling on at this point. Kate is in my POE regardless of volume. I am considering Kate/Abigail as a difference check now (insert obligatory "or some softer version of that term").

I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?

Sure. It's not especially concrete, it's just a possible solution that fits nicely into the world I have imagined to this point. Kate is in my POE pool, and Abigail kind of hovers just outside it. Kate's recent assertive comment about Abigail being "too coherent" followed by a poll-tying vote doesn't strike me as the stuff of teammates, at least not those two specifically. So if they don't fit together, but one of them is mafia, then that aligns nicely with my broader view of the game.

It'd especially make sense for a Kate/Lime Coke theory, for example. That is getting too specific, but it's an expression of how it would seem to fit.

[Wiml]

I think there's still validity in noting that Kate has below average volume compared to her recent town games, I just wouldn't call it a smoking gun atm.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think there's still validity in noting that Kate has below average volume compared to her recent town games, I just wouldn't call it a smoking gun atm.

Nor would I.

[Wiml]

I think it'd notable that both myself and Roxy have observed that Kate feels different compared to how she's played recently as town as well.

In my case alone it was a small sample size so I wasn't putting a lot of stock into it initially but I think it's something worth pointing back out given the topic of discussion.

[DrWilgy]

I do think being uninformed is a completely different beast. It's a lot easier to post when you have no clue.

Anyway, it's not worth dwelling on at this point. Kate is in my POE regardless of volume. I am considering Kate/Abigail as a difference check now (insert obligatory "or some softer version of that term").

I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?

The Kate/Abigail dif check is real. I remember thinking there was one but couldn't tell you for the life of me as to why I thought it.

Wild that it was observed by someone else though, I'd never had said anything and just let it amount to fuzzy sick brain.

[DrWilgy]

This is not real lol

Reads are fluid, especially this early. Keep doing your thing, Abigail.

Okay but like what I mean by this is not real is that 2 people have said that I'm town

Michelle has said why

They've answered

Michelle has said no

And they've been like oh ha yes you are right in fact no

And nobody thinks this is fishy or weird.

It brings to mind that famous W Bush quote

Fool me once shame on you fool me twice uh never fool me again

This is extremely coherent for a tzenon.

Gonna put my vote here for now.

[VOTE: PA] aubergine

It was when I read this that I thought that implied a dif. Not sure why exactly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It was when I read this that I thought that implied a dif. Not sure why exactly.

I think I find the confidence of Kate's tone to be incongruent with the material she is bringing into question. To find it suspicious is fine, but that was a bit much.

So we're left with either confident Kate is right or Kate is fake. Obviously confident Kate can be wrong too, but when I think about things in the broader POE it makes sense to think about a difference check.

[DrWilgy]

Bro

I can't even comprehend my own thoughts rn. How did you do it?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Bro

I can't even comprehend my own thoughts rn. How did you do it?

They don’t give you a doctorate in psychology until you demonstrate that you can read minds.

[DrWilgy]

I'm going back into my sleepy pod now.

[Wiml]

I'd be interested in hearing your difference check read if you're up for explaining it?

Sure. It's not especially concrete, it's just a possible solution that fits nicely into the world I have imagined to this point. Kate is in my POE pool, and Abigail kind of hovers just outside it. Kate's recent assertive comment about Abigail being "too coherent" followed by a poll-tying vote doesn't strike me as the stuff of teammates, at least not those two specifically. So if they don't fit together, but one of them is mafia, then that aligns nicely with my broader view of the game.

It'd especially make sense for a Kate/Lime Coke theory, for example. That is getting too specific, but it's an expression of how it would seem to fit.

Yeah, thanks, I can understand this stance and I'm in a pretty similar position wrt reads myself - particularly if I'm assuming for the sake of solving that Wilgy/Quin are villagers and considering potential wolf teams from there.

[Wiml]

Wilgy looking pretty towny this page.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Wilgy looking pretty towny this page.

I agree, tentatively. I probably still call him POE, primarily in that this most recent insight is a duplicate of mine (which I do appreciate, but it's easier to post). But I don't think he's a priority for me right now.

[Kate]

Kate's volume trends:

Currently
18 posts

Town
Cyberpunk - 114 posts, 2 cycles (57 per)
Sesame Street - 80 posts, 1 cycle (80 per)
Summer Sh*t - 275 posts, 2 cycles (138 per)
Muppet Babies - 98 posts, 1 cycle (98 per)
Hotdog Fingers - 360 posts, 6 cycles (60 per)
Lawyers, Guns, Money - 344 posts, 4 cycles (86 per)
Bad Dates - 107, 1.5 cycles (71 per) *replacement

Mafia
Felt Mafia 3 - 115 posts, 3 cycles (38 per)
Scooby Doo - 194 posts, 4 cycles (49 per)

I won't call this damning, because every game is circumstantial. But it should be noted that the lowest two post rates are the two mafia games, and this game is on a slow Kate rate. The above list is not comprehensive. I just grabbed a decent handful of what I could find on a quick review of the site Hall of Fame.

However, I challenge you to see if day is 100% my slowest day.

[Wiml]

Wilgy looking pretty towny this page.

I agree, tentatively. I probably still call him POE, primarily in that this most recent insight is a duplicate of mine (which I do appreciate, but it's easier to post). But I don't think he's a priority for me right now.

Yeah, agree with this as well.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

However, I challenge you to see if day is 100% my slowest day.

I don't want to spend a ton of time on that, but I quickly scanned three of your town games to verify this.

Summer Sh*t - no
Cyberpunk - yes
Hotdog Fingers - sorta

Maybe it's true sometimes. Not always.

[Kate]

It was when I read this that I thought that implied a dif. Not sure why exactly.

I think I find the confidence of Kate's tone to be incongruent with the material she is bringing into question. To find it suspicious is fine, but that was a bit much.

So we're left with either confident Kate is right or Kate is fake. Obviously confident Kate can be wrong too, but when I think about things in the broader POE it makes sense to think about a difference check.

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

We have about 22 hours remaining in Day 1, which is plenty. However, we should remember that the deadline is somewhat early by usual standards, so if folks think that might pose a problem tomorrow, I suggest making this evening your big splash in the game.

[falcon45ca]

☆Princess Abigail☆

This is mafia. Let's go.

Its been 21 hours since this post.





What other reads do you have?

[Kate]

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

[Kate]

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

*civ. Ebwob

[Kate]

Mafia fucked up by killing Seanzie.

Reason why is I was going to fuck Seanzie up for them.

If youre town, and I think you might be, we need to gather and rally. Lynching zenon is a big mistake. How many mislynches do we have left?

Who'd you replace? I'm still four pages behind.

Robyn.

Well then I hope people will take a leap of faith with me and not vote zenon. She is smack dab in her civ meta.

Tell me what you know of Zenon's "civ meta."

Oh God. You know I play on feels.

Shes genuine. She's uber frustrated and not in a whiny, I'm caught fake way. She's determined and a bit scattered. When she's bad, she has her thoughts more collected and while she still post A LOT there more of a method to her madness that is not present here.

From bad dates.

[DrWilgy]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

[Kate]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.

[Kate]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

Could be #1.

[DrWilgy]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.

Homie, I trust your intuition. Your intuition stat is like 99 compared to my 92.

You like dumped all your stats into intuition.

It's because I trust your intuition Abigail and you are on these lists.

It's also because I trust your intuition it'd be really weird for the Abigail read to be wrong without good reason.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.

What does voting you out have to do with stats?

[DrWilgy]

Yeah is there a big difference in stats between a lv 8 Kate and a yeeted lv 9 Kate?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

I’m confused. How can she be both too coherent and also all over the place? Or did you mean “when she is town”?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was very confident and VERY wrong on wilgy once. I still wake up screaming from the nightmares.

What makes that Abigail post "too coherent"?

When she is wolf, she's all over the place. I'm pretty sure I described her the exact opposite way in the last game.

*civ. Ebwob

Got it nevermind

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Abigail’s treatment of Michelle is a bit concerning. Discarding suspicion as “omgus” is not an argument.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: Abigail] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

My first instinct with Epi/Abigail is that they don't fit together. Epignosis has a long history of avoiding bussing, especially if it is unnecessary (and I don't believe Abigail had received votes until he showed up if I recall correctly). I welcome discussion on that, because it is the only thing Epi has done to this point apart from a blind Quin vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

POE something like:

Abigail OR Kate
Lime Coke
DrWilgy
Quin
Epignosis

That's still technically five names if two of them are mutually exclusive, but it implies that both should not be allowed to survive long together. If that dichotomy is viewed as legitimate by the field, then it's wise to resolve it sooner than later. I forget which one, but this was a grave mistake made in one of the champs games this year.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Kate what is your read on me?

[DrWilgy]

@Kate what is your read on me?

I personally think of you as a Medium Rare Steak Dinner with a side of Fondant Potatoes

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Kate what is your read on me?

I personally think of you as a Medium Rare Steak Dinner with a side of Fondant Potatoes

It would seem that I am absolutely not what I eat.

[Kate]

I've become enlightened.

Team is:
Epi, Abigail
Epi, Kate
Wiml, Abigail
Wiml, Kate
Wilgy, Kate

Miss me wit dem @s

You know I'm very tempted to have you guys lynch me just so I could prove definitively that intuition is better than stats.

What does voting you out have to do with stats?

You did a chart about me with an analysis of posts per day.

[Kate]

@Kate what is your read on me?

I don't know you. That's where my system fails.

Wiml too. Or either.

[DrWilgy]

@Kate what is your read on me?

I personally think of you as a Medium Rare Steak Dinner with a side of Fondant Potatoes

It would seem that I am absolutely not what I eat.

If wolves eat civs, does that make wolves civs?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You did a chart about me with an analysis of posts per day.

Oh I see. Sure that can be called "stats". It's only a small piece of a much bigger puzzle though. If anyone ever posts an equation into the game thread and says "vote Kate! The equation says vote Kate!", I will agree that it is not sound strategy.

[Kate]

@Kate what is your read on me?

I personally think of you as a Medium Rare Steak Dinner with a side of Fondant Potatoes

It would seem that I am absolutely not what I eat.

If wolves eat civs, does that make wolves civs?

It's too late for your mental gymnastics!

[DrWilgy]

I'd sheep it

[Kate]

You did a chart about me with an analysis of posts per day.

Oh I see. Sure that can be called "stats". It's only a small piece of a much bigger puzzle though. If anyone ever posts an equation into the game thread and says "vote Kate! The equation says vote Kate!", I will agree that it is not sound strategy.

I like you. Your like the Ying to my yang or summat.