Severance [Evening Four]

[Made]

guise, i think abigal accidentally put her role card in her signature, we got one!!!1!!

So I'm town than

Since


Yanno


The role card in my bio is town desperado

you assume my literacy— big mistake pal

Perspective slip

in what world is a desparado town?
desperate? masculine noun? sounds pretty scummy to me

[Bereft]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty

stats is poison

I put the problem in a LLM, and this is what it gave me:

"This is a combinatorics problem. We need to find the probability that no wolves are paired with each other when each person from one thread is paired randomly with someone from the other thread.

Let's break down the problem:

1. There are 13 players in each thread, so there are 13! ways to pair them. 2. There are 3 wolves in each thread, so there are 3! ways to pair the wolves. 3. The remaining 10 players in each thread can be paired in 10! ways.

The total number of ways to pair the players is 13!, and the number of ways to pair the players such that no wolves are paired with each other is (3! * 10!).

The probability that no wolves are paired with each other is therefore (3! * 10!) / 13!.

Let's calculate this:

1. 13! = 6,227,020,800 2. 3! = 6 3. 10! = 3,628,800

So, the probability is (6 * 3,628,800) / 6,227,020,800 = 0.00349206349.

Therefore, the probability that no wolves are paired with each other is approximately 0.0035.

Let's return this in an html-like answer tag:

0.0035"

Take that as you will

If you ever have a math problem in a mafia game, just send it over to me please.

Ofc said "LLM" is wrong.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?

[leetic]

I got caught up on 10 choose 3 and gave up because it felt like dependent events e.g. a w/w pair affects the odds of future w/w pairings

stats continues to be lies

It does, but it makes the equation much more complicated so I chose to just run the simpler equation. The exact probability doesn't matter here, just whether an event is plausible or not.

It's been a while since I had to work on anything more complex than a simple normal or Poisson distribution, so forgive me if my statistical skills are a little rusty

stats is poison

I put the problem in a LLM, and this is what it gave me:

"This is a combinatorics problem. We need to find the probability that no wolves are paired with each other when each person from one thread is paired randomly with someone from the other thread.

Let's break down the problem:

1. There are 13 players in each thread, so there are 13! ways to pair them. 2. There are 3 wolves in each thread, so there are 3! ways to pair the wolves. 3. The remaining 10 players in each thread can be paired in 10! ways.

The total number of ways to pair the players is 13!, and the number of ways to pair the players such that no wolves are paired with each other is (3! * 10!).

The probability that no wolves are paired with each other is therefore (3! * 10!) / 13!.

Let's calculate this:

1. 13! = 6,227,020,800 2. 3! = 6 3. 10! = 3,628,800

So, the probability is (6 * 3,628,800) / 6,227,020,800 = 0.00349206349.

Therefore, the probability that no wolves are paired with each other is approximately 0.0035.

Let's return this in an html-like answer tag:

0.0035"

Take that as you will

If you ever have a math problem in a mafia game, just send it over to me please.

Ofc said "LLM" is wrong.

Yeah, I think it calculated the probability that all wolves were paired.

[leetic]

Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?

Roughly, yeah

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Ted Porscha thinks you're the wolfiest slot today

she just wants my attention...

Hit

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Hot*

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

guise, i think abigal accidentally put her role card in her signature, we got one!!!1!!

So I'm town than

Since


Yanno


The role card in my bio is town desperado

you assume my literacy— big mistake pal

Perspective slip

in what world is a desparado town?
desperate? masculine noun? sounds pretty scummy to me

In the world where this role came from a mashlol

[Bereft]

meh i just realized it's prolly not bereft

leetic tracked him nowhere, which should be >rand vanillager

Sigh

[Bereft]

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Eod is tomorrow 28 hours and a half right?

Roughly, yeah

Cool I woke up freaking out it was EOD

Spoiler: show

[tedxtr]

in what world is a desperado NOT a villager? lul

[RondoDimBuckle]

I am sad I missed out on more page 69 posting. Not sure how I feel about Gira and Made being on Neon

[Bereft]

I will also summarily decline to take anything Made posts as being AI.
Yeah I know, we have new person and its supposed to make things easier, but eh.

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: Made ] aubergine

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

in what world is a desperado NOT a villager? lul

The one where someone designed a game while on shrooms

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I am sad I missed out on more page 69 posting. Not sure how I feel about Gira and Made being on Neon

If either is a wolf it's made but I town read them so

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Skill issue

[Bereft]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

[tedxtr]

vote pyxxy, put the heat on em

[Bereft]

where* not who

[Bereft]

vote pyxxy, put the heat on em

well thats useless

[Bereft]

also bets on whose getting NK'ed today?
its leetic correct?

[Bereft]

Wait holy, im no longer a mark.

[Made]

while we’re (read I) am taking a break from solving, any role/game/mechanic shenanigans i should be aware of?

[Bereft]

no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead

[Made]

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

[Bereft]

i think i already know who im voting today tbqh unless that person directly appeals to me.

[pyxxy]

Spoiler: show

2 hours 30 to go d2.PNG

recreated as text and copying leetic's PR color idea

RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - Ranmilia, WWA, pyxxy, leetic
pyxxy (5) - Rondo, ted, Abi, bereft, gira

Rondo, TSP, WWA all with (1) from the shadow votes

--------------

from here:
WWA moves to TSP (1+1) at EOD-2h23m
Rondo moves to TSP (2+1) at EOD-2h15m
Dizzy votes Ran (1) at EOD-2h03m
Dizzy votes idk at EOD-2h02m
Gira moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h59m

VC refresh 1:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (3) - Ranmilia, pyxxy, leetic
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Rondo, Gira
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, bereft

---
Rondo moves to Abi (1) at EOD-1h42m
Bereft moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h13m
Rondo moves to Bereft (1) at EOD-1h11m
Rondo moves to ted (1) at EOD-0h59m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h57m
Rondo moves to pyxxy (3) at EOD-0h56m

VC refresh 2:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (2) - pyxxy, leetic
TSP (4+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Ranmilia
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, Rondo

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h31m
Ranmilia moves to Dizzy (3) at EOD-0h20m
Rondo moves to Dizzy (4) at EOD-0h07m

VC refresh 3:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - pyxxy, leetic, Ranmilia, Rondo
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h05m
Rondo moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h01m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (5+1) at EOD-0h00m
leetic moves to TSP (6+1) at EOD-0h00m and one extra minute late

final VC as we all know:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (1) - pyxxy
TSP (6+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Rondo, Ranmilia, leetic
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

[pyxxy]

sorry that took forever I got distracted at least ten times

[Made]

no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead

good point.
I sent a note to my innie on day 1. he was a bit of a herb, and i told him as much via a message i write in sharpie on my arm. this morning i woke up with a message that said:

“be weary of the desperate-os”

[Bereft]

no you should spew yourself town by revealing your total ignorance instead

good point.
I sent a note to my innie on day 1. he was a bit of a herb, and i told him as much via a message i write in sharpie on my arm. this morning i woke up with a message that said:

“be weary of the desperate-os”

or you can reveal your comedic side i guess then

[RondoDimBuckle]

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?

[Made]

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

But also yeah, wtf is Jack doing…?

[leetic]

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

But also yeah, wtf is Jack doing…?

He apparently told Ranmilia everything in BTSC. But yeah, I would like @Jackofhearts2005 to corroborate some of this himself. Come on, be better than ilario.

[Bereft]

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?

well tbh rondo exists but rondo is not a person im trying to sort
im just saying that most of the people on the wagon can be reasonably construed as wolves trying to grab credit.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Spoiler: show

Spoiler: show

2 hours 30 to go d2.PNG

recreated as text and copying leetic's PR color idea

RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - Ranmilia, WWA, pyxxy, leetic
pyxxy (5) - Rondo, ted, Abi, bereft, gira

Rondo, TSP, WWA all with (1) from the shadow votes

--------------

from here:
WWA moves to TSP (1+1) at EOD-2h23m
Rondo moves to TSP (2+1) at EOD-2h15m
Dizzy votes Ran (1) at EOD-2h03m
Dizzy votes idk at EOD-2h02m
Gira moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h59m

VC refresh 1:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (3) - Ranmilia, pyxxy, leetic
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Rondo, Gira
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, bereft

---
Rondo moves to Abi (1) at EOD-1h42m
Bereft moves to TSP (3+1) at EOD-1h13m
Rondo moves to Bereft (1) at EOD-1h11m
Rondo moves to ted (1) at EOD-0h59m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h57m
Rondo moves to pyxxy (3) at EOD-0h56m

VC refresh 2:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (2) - pyxxy, leetic
TSP (4+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Ranmilia
pyxxy (3) - ted, Abi, Rondo

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h31m
Ranmilia moves to Dizzy (3) at EOD-0h20m
Rondo moves to Dizzy (4) at EOD-0h07m

VC refresh 3:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (4) - pyxxy, leetic, Ranmilia, Rondo
TSP (3+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

---
Rondo moves to leetic (1) at EOD-0h05m
Rondo moves to TSP (4+1) at EOD-0h01m
Ranmilia moves to TSP (5+1) at EOD-0h00m
leetic moves to TSP (6+1) at EOD-0h00m and one extra minute late

final VC as we all know:
RonDubz (1) - TSP
Dizzy (1) - pyxxy
TSP (6+1) - WWA, Gira, Bereft, Rondo, Ranmilia, leetic
pyxxy (2) - ted, Abi

ngl I am cracking up at all my moving around put down on paper

[Made]

lmao wait, I was the wagon yesterday???

[Bereft]

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

[RondoDimBuckle]

As far as the cred for the wagon thing, I think Gira is really the only person that I think had minimal incentive.

thoughts here @RondoDimBuckle ??
(also long time no see! hope youre well)

I would have to clarify what @Bereft means here

I am slogging through a work week, yourself?

well tbh rondo exists but rondo is not a person im trying to sort
im just saying that most of the people on the wagon can be reasonably construed as wolves trying to grab credit.

I am annoyed at the lack of movement around the 3 way tie and then the dizzy tie I offered but I guess it was too obvious in hindsight

[Made]

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

[Made]

also i just kinda assumed this…i have an innie…right?

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

[Made]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

unless youre bussing

[leetic]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

But you supposedly wolfread ted and pyxxy?

[Bereft]

well so i am a huge fan of the show. So i can say this (bit of a spoiler, but not gonna say who this applies to in the show).

Spoiler: show

There is likely a role that’s outtie (us) is scum aligned, but innie (them) is town aligned.

this is such an on the nose comment

i cant help think the comedy is wolfy but yeah, i already had my opinion made up even before you posted today so it colors my opinion of the comment regardless.

I do think that like Rondo can comment if they want to on it, or maybe anyone else who's paying attention.

[Bereft]

also i just kinda assumed this…i have an innie…right?

i mean maybe you dont

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

unless youre bussing

Technically I proved in my last scum game that I am capable of hard defense to lol

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

i have no idea who neon thinks wolves are and this is prolly because i glossed over it

Nah I've decided I don't scum read people anymore cause whenever I express a scum read people yell at me so I only town read now

But you supposedly wolfread ted and pyxxy?

Sure before I decided to do this

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Now I scum read nobody