Ted Lasso Mafia - game over!

[robyn]

thunal if u decided the chop on a non lorab person who would u annihilate

[Thunal33]

thunal if u decided the chop on a non lorab person who would u annihilate

DM. Imo she's making me look worse than I am, I don't understand her Abi read at all, and I wonder if her suspicion on SVS day 1 is too out of nowhere.

[Thunal33]

To explain that last one a little more, I've caught wolves distancing based on them suspecting each other out of nowhere for little reason and wolves having a need to interact with other wolves.

[robyn]

@Thunal33 are you cop?

[robyn]

wait

[robyn]

@Bereft are you cop?

[Bereft]

@Bereft are you cop?

I have seemingly constructed POEs out of nowhere, This is because however, I have closely read people's posts seeking to discern that what they're not saying.

[Thunal33]

@Thunal33 are you cop?

[robyn]

i am hunting

[robyn]

the most dangerous game

[Scotty]

scotty boyo, thoughts on wigly/thunal scum

also are u cop?

I don’t think Wilgy has any scum equity. If he’s wolf, gg. Looking at his end of day 1 adamantly pushing Michelle over Seanzie was a losing move for mafia imo

Thunal could be. It’s more of a shrug. Definitely in the POE solely based on voting record and behavior

oh you think thunal is cop?

…I don’t think so.

Also, this line of inquiry is definitely gonna go nowhere

[Scotty]

I just feel like there are more possibilities in a Lorab/? Other

It’s not like she *isn’t* compatible with anyone

It might actually look worse for people on the LoRab wagon if she were a wolf since it would be between an inactive mafia and an active mafia.

what do you mean? Which Lorab wagon? Because currently that’s me and wilgy

Day 2

I don’t even remember the vote totals and can’t be bothered to look it up now.

What was that final makeup?

[Scotty]

i am hunting

are you a burn
Chirp chirp

[Scotty]

i am hunting

are you a burn
Chirp chirp

Dammit autocorrect

Are you a birb*

[Scotty]

I really don’t think thunal/DM is w/w so there’s that

[Scotty]

i am hunting

Q:
If DM is bad (hypothetically), who is her partner?

[Thunal33]

I just feel like there are more possibilities in a Lorab/? Other

It’s not like she *isn’t* compatible with anyone

It might actually look worse for people on the LoRab wagon if she were a wolf since it would be between an inactive mafia and an active mafia.

what do you mean? Which Lorab wagon? Because currently that’s me and wilgy

Day 2

I don’t even remember the vote totals and can’t be bothered to look it up now.

What was that final makeup?

I was going to quote it from Rondo but the images didn't show up in my quote. He has it in his ISO.

[RondoDimBuckle]

I just feel like there are more possibilities in a Lorab/? Other

It’s not like she *isn’t* compatible with anyone

It might actually look worse for people on the LoRab wagon if she were a wolf since it would be between an inactive mafia and an active mafia.

what do you mean? Which Lorab wagon? Because currently that’s me and wilgy

Day 2

I don’t even remember the vote totals and can’t be bothered to look it up now.

What was that final makeup?

Its in my iso I've done vote analysis

[RondoDimBuckle]

I just feel like there are more possibilities in a Lorab/? Other

It’s not like she *isn’t* compatible with anyone

It might actually look worse for people on the LoRab wagon if she were a wolf since it would be between an inactive mafia and an active mafia.

what do you mean? Which Lorab wagon? Because currently that’s me and wilgy

Day 2

I don’t even remember the vote totals and can’t be bothered to look it up now.

What was that final makeup?

I was going to quote it from Rondo but the images didn't show up in my quote. He has it in his ISO.

You could upload the picture to a website then it will quote

[Scotty]

I just feel like there are more possibilities in a Lorab/? Other

It’s not like she *isn’t* compatible with anyone

It might actually look worse for people on the LoRab wagon if she were a wolf since it would be between an inactive mafia and an active mafia.

what do you mean? Which Lorab wagon? Because currently that’s me and wilgy

Day 2

I don’t even remember the vote totals and can’t be bothered to look it up now.

What was that final makeup?

Its in my iso I've done vote analysis

k thanky

[Scotty]

Spoiler: show

VA21.PNG


VA22.PNG


Ok lets look at this from another angle now we have a few days worth of data.

Group of Neon/Wilgy/Lorab because I think they are least likely wolf here (I am ignoring Robyns shield on bereft for the thought experiment)

D1 does Mafia SVS vote Mafia Scotty?
D1 does mafia neon vote mafia michelle only to throw her under the bus d2?
D1 does mafia wilgy vote mafia michelle only to help throw her under the bus d2?
D1 does mafia darling vote mafia svs?

d2 does mafia scotty/darling/bereft/thunal try to save mafia michelle knowing their day 1 record is on town? leaving town neon and wilgy as well as confirmed town cape/rondo/jjj/robyn to all gain credit and make the game super hard for them?

d3 does mafia thunal/bereft continue to vote town 3 days in a row?
d3 does mafia scotty knowing he has voted only town avoid a free ts lynch?

d4 does a mafia darling continue to vote off wagon? Then claim they wanted to be on the wagon the next day but were afraid to join us in case we would leave? (That weird me out that statement since I was hard pushing SVS all second half of the day so it doesnt make sense with what was actually happening. now that I think about it. [VOTE: darling] aubergine)

d4 is the mafia team just darling / Lorab? or darling + x or lorab +x or is it more likely that both mafia were on SVS knowing to continue to get kills they had to make sure svs died?
if the answer is darling + x: Which is more likely Thunal/Scotty/Bereft? (Or Wilgy/Neon)
If the answer is lorab + x: which is more likely? Thunal/Scotty/Bereft? (Or Wilgy/Neon)
if the answer is both are on wagon which two?

d4 why did you decide not to keep SVS alive? Why didnt you join the Scotty wagon?

Missed this- I love how you even circled all the names too! So cute!

Yeah based on that vote history I think it’s just DM/lorab, or like Abbi/thunal

I know you are writing off lorab entirely, but I find it more likely the data is skewed because she isn’t voting and we have no tangible info on if mafia are pushing her as a patsy or as a partner

[Thunal33]

SVS spew:

Spoiler: show

@S~V~S do you feel it is on-brand or not (or neither) for @Long Con to express early suspicion of you?

Onnnnnnnnnn-braaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnd...... on-brand. On-brand. Towny. Wolfy. On-brand. Sassy. Classy. On-brand. Interesting. On-brand. Bon-rand?

@JaggedJimmyJay this is what I meant by "theatricality". I used to auto read this as bad~ weirdly enough, even in games where I was bad, and i had TMI re LC being town, I STILL read him as bad, which is why he's always an easy yeet for me when I'm bad. I kinda half believe it when I'm making the case.

I am on record as not believing in contributing to such lists, or rankings. I'm not a fan and I don't generally post them. Those here who have played with me a lot can attest.

Similarly, I hate when people trust me. Stop naming me, people! And, really....I'm kind of freaked out that I'm on this site and not yet suspected. What's up with that? I don't think that has ever happened. At all on here, and rarely in prior communities.

That used to freak me out, too. Naming civs, like WTF. Extreme target painting. I still don't love rainbow lists, and prefer baddie hunting to townie hunting.

I'm used to it now.

Slightly good look for LoRab since it’s a potential pocket.

I'd like to talk about this read. It seems similar to how I make some of my townreads based on "is this a thought a mafia would even think of". What about those moments is something that a mafia wouldn't think of doing?

In the forum LoRab and I came from, I got lunched for saying I trusted someone and thought they were good. "Painting Targets". Being leery of that is NAI for her, and even though LC and I come from that same background, and I think we both prolly both still have a touch of that even though we have more experience in the town-reading style of game.

Bad LoRab is a bit cagier than the LoRab here, imo.

Slight - for LoRab calling the behavior she's sussed for NAI.

S~V~S is bad. She's humouring in there like nobody's business. Setting the scene, agreeable. If I were cruder and didn't know S~V~S, she's also sucking up to Jay, possibly pocketing.

Intriguing take- I feel like I have the unique benefit of having just wolfed with her and I haven’t seen anything specific about her that is throwing off my paranoia alarm. And I’m usually paranoid of her as of the last 3 games before I wolf’ed with her.

Now do me do me

OK, you're freaking me out here. I don't think you've EVER said anything like this to/about me. Not the last 3 games. EVERY. GAME. Every one. You think I'm bad.

What did you take away from wolfing with me that makes you say this?

Also gotta go get ready for work. Love my new job, hate the longer commute.

This is a good look for Scotty. It seems like she’s genuinely confused that Scotty isn’t wolfreading her.

Scotty and I play almost all the same games, we're "boosters" I guess. And I can tell you that in almost all of them, if not all, I don't remember every post in every game, he shows some level of skepticism of me very early. And the fact that he was town reading me in three posts after a year of that, yeah. I found that to be freaky.

@Scotty, can you please clarify if you were or were not town reading S~V~S in the post below?

S~V~S is bad. She's humouring in there like nobody's business. Setting the scene, agreeable. If I were cruder and didn't know S~V~S, she's also sucking up to Jay, possibly pocketing.

Intriguing take- I feel like I have the unique benefit of having just wolfed with her and I haven’t seen anything specific about her that is throwing off my paranoia alarm. And I’m usually paranoid of her as of the last 3 games before I wolf’ed with her.

Now do me do me

This is sincerely the most positive thing he has ever said about me on Day One. Bank it.

More of “wow, why isn’t he scumreading me”.

Spoiler: show

@S~V~S do you feel it is on-brand or not (or neither) for @Long Con to express early suspicion of you?

Onnnnnnnnnn-braaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnd...... on-brand. On-brand. Towny. Wolfy. On-brand. Sassy. Classy. On-brand. Interesting. On-brand. Bon-rand?

@JaggedJimmyJay this is what I meant by "theatricality". I used to auto read this as bad~ weirdly enough, even in games where I was bad, and i had TMI re LC being town, I STILL read him as bad, which is why he's always an easy yeet for me when I'm bad. I kinda half believe it when I'm making the case.

I am on record as not believing in contributing to such lists, or rankings. I'm not a fan and I don't generally post them. Those here who have played with me a lot can attest.

Similarly, I hate when people trust me. Stop naming me, people! And, really....I'm kind of freaked out that I'm on this site and not yet suspected. What's up with that? I don't think that has ever happened. At all on here, and rarely in prior communities.

That used to freak me out, too. Naming civs, like WTF. Extreme target painting. I still don't love rainbow lists, and prefer baddie hunting to townie hunting.

I'm used to it now.

S~V~S is bad. She's humouring in there like nobody's business. Setting the scene, agreeable. If I were cruder and didn't know S~V~S, she's also sucking up to Jay, possibly pocketing.

Intriguing take- I feel like I have the unique benefit of having just wolfed with her and I haven’t seen anything specific about her that is throwing off my paranoia alarm. And I’m usually paranoid of her as of the last 3 games before I wolf’ed with her.

Now do me do me

OK, you're freaking me out here. I don't think you've EVER said anything like this to/about me. Not the last 3 games. EVERY. GAME. Every one. You think I'm bad.

What did you take away from wolfing with me that makes you say this?

Also gotta go get ready for work. Love my new job, hate the longer commute.

One last *?*, Bereft seems to be only addressing/alluding to Robyn and Jay, with the exception of his towny list, which was an answer to Jay, if I'm not mistaken.

I would not be able to read him if I tried, is this a normal thing for him? I don't find it to be AI, it just stuck out to me skimming his ISO.

Where are SVS's own reads? A lot of her posts feel like commentary and not actually taking stances. LC's post used to be read as auto bad and Scotty's freaking her out, but she didn't make actual reads off those when I feel like it would be natural for her to do.

@S~V~S
[VOTE: SVS] aubergine

I don't really have any yet, or didn't as of this AM. My posts are a commentary, that's how I develop reads.

You seem a bit more aggro, and less considered, than I tend to associate with you. You're a person who weighs and balances, and this feels kinda the opposite, almost a bit jumpy.

Jay asked me a question about LC, I talked about how I feel about LC. Scotty is freaking me out. It doesn't mean I find any of it AI.

I’m still freaking you out? Impressive.

Maybe I’ll wear this tshirt and jeans combo for Halloween next year

No. I was using it in the context of my original statement, referencing observations rather than reads.

Plus I used that phrase in my reply to LoRab (in the spoilered part of the post you quoted), who also used it herself. So it is just a colloquialism, not an over the top baddie ranting.

Having a misunderstanding with Scotty is a slight + for him.

I am considering dropping Scotty as a premier town read. There have been a few doubts raised that at least piqued my interest, and I want those dialogues to develop before I commit myself to that viewpoint. For the time being I will place him in purgatory.

Yeah, did you like that S~V~S reaction to him? I thought her point sounded legit.

I thought S~V~S seemed a bit dramatic in that response, and I don't actually know if "I have never seen this before" is true -- but if so it'd be worth consideration. I think your gripe was valid about Scotty calling your wacky "drunk" post a town post.

I don't recall seeing this before, no. Scotty is always skeptical of me early game.

ok, so what? Now that I have been *wrong* twice and seen you wolf personally, I can’t give you a chance to develop without outright finding fleas on you?

I don’t operate in 0’s and 1’s

Twice? Maybe more than that, lol. I thought about this, and you said you hadn't been bad for i think you told me 20 games, until we were bad together in Guitars. And tbh you're approaching me not unlike how you approached me there, where we were teammates, except we're not teammates here. This is the first I've heard of this tell, as well. So color me skeptical.

She literally said “except we’re not teammates here”. My first reaction was paranoia but I think it looks good for Scotty with some thought. People tend to be honest and it’s a little harder to out of the blue throw in “except we’re not teammates” to your teammate than someone you’re actually not teammates with.

I only got up to page 12.

But gotta go get ready for work, and will be 90% likely to be in the car when the poll ends unless the traffic gods smile on me, so i gotta vote now.

Gonna vote Scotty, he looks a bit flailing to me, of everyone, he's the only person who seriously pinged me. Of the others with votes, Michelle hasn't said enough for me to get a sense of her, and not voting Robyn. I'd rather give the host a day to wed out/replace no shows.

[VOTE: Scotty] aubergine

Disconnected from Michelle here and votes Scotty over her or Robyn. +for Scotty.

So far she’s almost exclusively interacted with Scotty or flipped/confirmed town. It’s kind of annoying.

OK, I had a pretty ugly day yesterday, it involved going to another state to help a family member in an emergency. Everyone is all right, I picked up my dog and am back home. It could have been worse, it was the next state over, but still. Didn't have much time for Mafia.

Will try to catch up to why I have 3 votes, but I'm shot. Gonna make some coffee and be back in a bit, to read my @'s and try to catch up at least somewhat.

Oh two votes. Well, that's not that bad lol.

Does anyone know who was voting her at this time? I think this means she didn’t expect the votes and they’re probably from town.

Also why does LoRab have votes? It's Hanukah and she's a Rabbi. I checked and she hasn't posted in days. Good lord.

Slight + for LoRab. I think she’s a little more likely to be confused about the votes if LoRab is town.

Spoiler: show

Imagine if Abigail did a reads list...

Abigails Rad Ass Reads List

Reads List Brought to you By Tomoyo Daidouji

‪☆Princess Abigail☆‬ -

Imagine being the most towny town to ever town

‪Bereft‬ -

Okay so imagine right. Imagine you town read Bereft off Robyn's TR because it's the easy thing to do but than when you start paying attention you realize something. Bereft is a shell of the Bereft I remember in Nooks mafia league game when I like changed my whole style of reading mafia because of something he said. There his reads were thought provoking but he didn't just surface level them. He was the only one besides me who defended Rem because like she was playing too dumb to be a wolf. But here is like Abbi is wolfy when in reality I feel like he should be able to look deeper at my play like he did there with Rem. I feel like he's taking the easy route. The route that allows him to move fluidly to the easiest kill without drawing suspicion.

‪Cape90‬ -

So not gonna lie part of this is just like I think the wolf world I'm settling into is like never compatible with Cape. I want them to answer me about their read on me but I think the way they are pushing back against consensus is pretty towny because it feels like genuine solving

‪DarlingMonroe‬ -

I really wanted DM to be towny but they dropped like one post that was pretty meh than dipped. No real takes on anyone. Half the players are solidly null like they are afraid to take a stand. Just...mid.

‪DrWilgy‬ -

Vibes. But also like there's a few micro tells I have for Wilgy he's hit in how he posts as town and how he solves

‪JaggedJimmyJay‬ -

I feel like...J3 is actively flooding the thread in a way that LOOKS beneficial to town but is actually extremely harmful to town. Okay so imagine a town of like Wilgy SVS DM fuck even me. We are so far behind that flooding the thread means we can never have a full picture of the game. If the team is Robyn and J3 than like... fuck and if it's Robyn J3 Bereft straight GGs they have successfully flooded out all of town.

In effect I also just don't find J3s attitude of "I've solved the game" too match the thread state and I think his solving is easily faked by him and not as great as everyone thinks. I feel like his paired teams are just like... surface level reads that feel hollow

‪LoRab‬ -

I don't remember any of their posts

‪Michelle‬ -

Their play today is town tonally, vibes, frustration , purity, posting.

‪robyn‬ -

I feel like Robyn is hyping up them and J3 carrying this game but I can't remember anything Robyn has contributed besides chopping an AFK towny to save an lhf towny EoD1... maybe and like posting a bunch of nothing. Which reminds me of the game we just played where Robyn was wolf and did not try to actively solve until they were on the block

‪RondoDimBuckle‬ -

Rondo is just unhinged hyper crazy town Rondo and his holier than thou listen to me I solved the game attitude never comes from wolf

‪Scotty‬ -

I think that their day 1 was bad and I can't get over it and I think this posting gimmick is always used onto a wolf that's in the PoE to make them look townier.

Tell me now what wolf team doesn't gimmick Bereft Robyn J3 fuck even Thunal or Me over PoEd Scotty if your gonna target a town. Like you rather the loud voices and make them harder to understand.

‪S~V~S‬ -

A couple towny posts day 1 that got this read snowballing and hit home with me. I think the attitude and frustration is always from town in the posts I'm thinking of. Could use them being around today though to lock this in stone cold.

‪Thunal33‬ -

Their entrance today was badge but their push on me makes... more sense than Robyn's and Berefts. Meh.

‪not reading ts account

Town Core

Rondo
SVS
Cape
Wilgy
Michelle

Game is fucking hard anyone acting like it's not is...nagl

I am here, I had a family issue yesterday.

LoRab hasn't posted in several days, but it is a Jewish Holiday, and she's a Rabbi and teaches kids at her synagogue, so I'd imagine it's a busy week for her. It makes me kinda sad that she has votes.

I still haven't checked my @s (or gotten my coffee).

I feel like this one can go either way. I’d guess it’s a personal feeling that doesn’t have to do with LoRab’s alignment.

I just reread her and she is a null for me, so still "virtually nothing". She hasn't said anything AI, and I read her better than prolly anyone here. When I first started playing, LoRab mentored me a bit, and we play similarly in some ways. We both like to explain ourselves, and contribute via commentary, so her posts here are basically NAI as far as I can see. If the sus on her is due to her being AWOL, I would guess this game starting when it did was bad timing for her. I follow her on social media, and she is very busy with the religious holiday. The thought process she explained in that post is still something I adhere to.

So she could be bad, she could also be town. I know I am not voting her when she has legit reason to be afk unless I have no choice and have to save.

Slight - for LoRab calling her a null with this much explanation.

I only got up to page 12.

But gotta go get ready for work, and will be 90% likely to be in the car when the poll ends unless the traffic gods smile on me, so i gotta vote now.

Gonna vote Scotty, he looks a bit flailing to me, of everyone, he's the only person who seriously pinged me. Of the others with votes, Michelle hasn't said enough for me to get a sense of her, and not voting Robyn. I'd rather give the host a day to wed out/replace no shows.

[VOTE: Scotty] aubergine

what do you mean by flailing?

Struggling to survive. Flailing specifically means like those pictures you see of a person standing on the edge of a deep drop, windmilling their arms to keep from falling. That's flailing.

And since apparently (afai can tell) Scotty is the reason I am so sus (even though the only reason i spent two hours talking about him and only him Friday AM is becasue I woke up to 8 or 9 notifications from him, and I try to answer my @'s since i know I don't like it when people ignore me. Thinking about it now, he is reminding me more of his play in Don't Starve than anything, where we were t/t. Scotty has an almost hysteria component to him when he gets on a roll (meant w/love @Scotty no shade intended) that I tend to read as bad. But yeah, I don't want to talk about him anymore

I think I'm the only person town reading you

Well thanks for that; but it's a good reason you shouldn't say you'll sacrifice yourself for your reads, though.

It was a bit less intimidating coming in here with you being the only other person in here , lol.

Seems like she’s trying to get Scotty off her, slight + for him. Slight - for Abi because SVS said it was less intimidating because she was the only other person here.

Having read the most recent page, and gone through SVS posts.... they ping me the post so voting for them (SVS)... Scotty might be wolf, but I don't see it personally.

Can you explain why? I went through the rest of your posts, and you never say why. Just that I remain your biggest ping. Since most of my posts to that point were about Scotty, do you town read him?

Since you are consistently voting for me, I would appreciate the courtesy of some kind of reason. Thank you!

As of now, this is where I am at.

town reads: me [dm], robyn, Cape90
town lean: scotty, jjj, dr. wilgy, Rondo

????: michelle, thunal, princess A, LoRab, ts account

mafia reads: SVS, bereft

He wrote one post saying he thought I made a towny post, and now he's bad? Can you explain why you find bereft bad? Or is that it?

I know you are new to us. Explaining votes and reads to some extent is the norm here, though definitely not a requirement.

This post is a slight + for DM for the first part. She feels a bit defensive when asking DM to explain why.

I would very much love to hear reads on Bereft and robyn from @S~V~S, @DrWilgy, @LoRab, @Michelle, and anyone else that hasn’t recently stated them. That’ll be nice for me to assess the general game state. Thanks.

I think Robyn is town. They are not doing their usual town leader thing, trying to force the thread into submission thing they usually do, but I would guess it's hard to compete with you (no shade meant here, just the facts). They also said they were switching it up in the beginning of the game. Also somethings they said early into Day 2 led me to think they were town.

Bereft, I would like to think is town although I have seen him other places, it was mainly in Severance where he affected a unique posting style, so I have no real baseline for his game. His tone seems to have changed from earlier; he started out mildly curmudgeony, now it's a bit more pronounced~ his avatar befits his tone. I would say solely based on tone and content, he's a null for me, BUT, not unlike Robyn, he made a few posts earlier that led me to possibly lean town.

To your other "SVS hasn't updated reads" I've been in abd out of here much of the day cold reading, but I was exhausted from yesterday and had to take a nap. Ill be here till pretty much EOD, and will try to comply.

If I had to say my four biggest pings right now are:

SVS
Michelle
Bereft
LoRob/PrincessA.

So you've said earlier, can you explain why? Thanks!

Slight - for DM because of SVS being really friendly about it.

Linki, thanks @DarlingMonroe I don't think I "jumped" on the Scotty vote though, Scotty kinda dragged me into it by taking a light Day One ping and turning it into a big deal, forcing me to talk about it endlessly and never letting it go. I mainly voted for him since the D1 poll ended at 5 PM on a workday, I leave work at 5 PM, and it's a new job, so I'm not comfy Mafiaing at work, and I had to vote before worrk after I just spent almost 2 hours responding to 9 @'s from Scotty. So yeah, I was a bit salty with him and "jumped on him".

No vote today: LoRab (16 posts), SVS (50 posts), Michelle (78 posts), Princess A. (172 posts), Bereft (183)

its giving wolf not wanting to vote for each other or for other townies

ts account didn't vote either.

I came up in a forum where you didn't vote until EOD for the most part since votes weren't changeable. Even though I have played in an environment where they are changeable longer than one where they are not, I tend to think of votes as srs bsns, and I don't vote unless i mean it, or like Day one, if I have to vote in order to make poll end. I don't like reaction test votes, I don't like temp votes.

Lorab hasn't been here since Weds.

In any case, I'm pretty sure Scotty just called my post "garbage" so I don't want to get into that again, I'll bb after dinner.

More defense and explanation to DM, + for her.

@Darling, I didn't say he was wolf, I voted for him yesterday becasue I had to vote for someone and I was salty. He took a light ping I had and acted like I was railroading him. I said today I wanted to back off that and stop talking about Scotty, but it seems unlikely that will happen.

As just said, I'm walking away from here for a few minutes.

A miscommunication, slight + for DM.

@Darling, I didn't say he was wolf, I voted for him yesterday becasue I had to vote for someone and I was salty. He took a light ping I had and acted like I was railroading him. I said today I wanted to back off that and stop talking about Scotty, but it seems unlikely that will happen.

As just said, I'm walking away from here for a few minutes.

Okay, maybe I would have believed you more if you thought Scottie was wolf, because unless you are mafia, how could you have been so certain he is town?

What? I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. I don't think he's town, I don't know what he is. I had a mild day one ping, and he jumped all over me. TBH I don't want to think about him at all if I'm being totally frank.

More misunderstanding DM and actively trying not to think about Scotty. Good look for both.

In Darlings favor I said repeatedly in thread that LoRab was a rabbi, it’s Channukah, I follow her socials and she’s been very busy. Darling could easily have picked it up from the thread.

so, what reads do you have missy?

Aw you called me missy

I'm gonna be honest; I got totally derailed Day One for the somewhat (from my POV) overreaction to my thoughts on Scotty. Who popped up doing a Tasmanian Devil whirling dervish imitation around me every time I mentioned his name. In the post that I said I didn't want to talk about it, he popped up and called my post 'garbage' (I saw what Jay said about how it prolly was just the insanifier, but come on. Lots of words in that post, and all his posts, were clear and game related). I have never seen so much over reaction to a day one observation that wasn't even a suspicion.

I agree that we are unpaired, lol.

I am having problems getting out of the OMGUS thing, so I'm happy to look into jays POE, and the LoRab voters. I think voting for her at all was kinda icky, and wagoning her was double icky., especially when most of Michelles posts her last day were pretty sketch.

Another good look for Scotty, it’s easier to be honest than to lie.

@S~V~S vote ts account ty

Well, I absolutely don't want to yeet Abbi. So it works for me.

I 've only skimmed his ISO, but I'll trust you here and I'll read him now.

[VOTE: t's] aubergine

Slight - for Abi.

I took this one out of the spoiler since I want people to see it.

Guys I'm really sorry, for some reason I am very demoralized right now. Maybe being suspected after literally making one or two posts (for an actual not real reason) then every time I try to explain where I'm coming from, well I can't do it without mentioning Scotty, and he's like fucking Beetlejuice lol.

I had mostly town reads this whole game. Right now I am one zillion percent not caught up.

Town

Robyn, Cape, Rondo. I feel Befert for reasons, some things they've said . Maybe cause Robyn vouches, and I guess they know each other that well? I also feel Abi is town, but that could be a warm fuzzy cause she t/r'ed me early. I find it super unlikely I'll vote for these people. Or even impossible.

Not Sure, no reason to town read these people, but no reason to wolf read them either.

Thunal, Wilgy, they both seem in their possible town meta as I've observed it, Wilgy tries a bit more to act innocuous when he's bad, and Thunal is a bit more level when she's bad, imo. But they've both fooled me, and rather spectacularly might I add lol

Iffy imo (if it's possible Conf Bias, I'll note it):

Darling (possible conf bias), I'm not sure why Jay was so sure of towniness here, maybe cause Darling bolstered his hypotheses? At one point I thought DM and Jay could be the BTS roles, but apparently not. Scotty, I just can't shake it tbh. And the uber aggro way he comes at me every time I say "beetlejuice", um, Scotty, yeah, that's it.

I have no clue:

T's (it appears they've shown up, but I haven't read their posts yet) and LoRab. I doubt LoRab is gonna show, and that makes me sad, maybe more sad than people trying to wagon her on Hanukkah. But that's also based on personal info that I'm fairly sure no one else in game had. LC prolly knew but he was dead. On the night y'all were trying to lynch her, she was having her head shaved as part of a fund raiser for a childrens cancer charity. So I was in here watching pitchforks get shaken at her, and then on social watching her do good in the real world. So I kinda got salty and over reacted I guess.

And someone in my @'s said something about how my Michelle vote was too little too late or something to that effect.

I baldly stated I wanted to save LoRab regardless of affiliation, I wasn't exactly having a ball in here, lol, and wanted to make sure that LoRab wagon hadn't formed before I voted. I voted left the thread and apparently missed the LoRab wagon that subsequently formed.

I'll be back after work to hopefully read some more (like T's posts) and vote.

SVS having no concrete reason on Bereft looks good for him. This is the first time SVS has talked about Wilgy and she doesn’t have much to say.

Slightly bad look for DM that SVS put the (possible conf bias) in there. It’s easier to treat teammates in a special way or have more explanation for them than it is to treat townies that way.

I also feel like SVS put her teammates in two different tiers so that’s a point against DM/Scotty as a pair.

The fact SVS was sad that she doubts LoRab would show is a slight - for LoRab. She could be sad if LoRab were town too but I think that with her also mentioning being salty in the same post is a slightly bad look for LoRab.


Conclusion: Overall I think this looks worse for LoRab than my impression was coming into it. There's this persistent null read on her and calling her behavior NAI even though she made an early comment about LoRab not seeming as cagey as she is when she's bad. She also felt a need to talk a certain amount about LoRab. It reminds me a lot of the art upick game I played this summer where PSV did a similar persistent null read on her inactive teammate genny.

I think it looks decent for DM. The (possible conf bias) thing in SVS's wall is a bad point for DM but there were a couple good points. SVS felt a need to almost overexplain in response to DM's sus on her and that makes me lean that she was actually worried about it.

SVS/Scotty look really unpaired. It felt like SVS was genuinely baffled about Scotty not suspecting her and she seemed concerned with getting Scotty off her. She literally called herself unpaired with Scotty a couple times and that indicates that they actually are unpaired.

There's a near total disconnect with Wilgy that makes me feel a little worse about him.

[Thunal33]

Oh two votes. Well, that's not that bad lol.

@RondoDimBuckle do you know who was voting SVS at the time of this post?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Oh two votes. Well, that's not that bad lol.

@RondoDimBuckle do you know who was voting SVS at the time of this post?

It could probably be constructed from sod

[RondoDimBuckle]

Highly doubt they're teamed | Unlikely to be teamed | Maybe compatible even if I don't feel it | Compatible

The names in this table are the names in my POE pool. This is how I further narrow down suspects.

~ Thunal is a goofy or bad fit with everyone else save the zero poster. That's a pretty good indicator in her favor.

~ ts account is compatible with everyone by default. There is no further rationale there.

Per this table, the following teams of four are possible with completely mutual yellow blocks.

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, ts account]
---
[Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, ts account]
---
??? That might be it? I don't see another one off-hand, but I'll keep scoping my table. It's hard to tell lol.

Teams that work if I allow the softest green color to be treated as yellow:

[Michelle, Abigail, ts account, Scotty]
---
[Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, Scotty]
---
[Michelle, LoRab, ts account, Scotty]
---
Not seeing another at the moment, but I am also going blind. I will indicate if I see another. But here are two viable teams and three more semi-viable teams. So defines the POE:

{Michelle, LoRab, ts account, S~V~S ||| Abigail, Scotty}

This has been me fully showing my work for why my solve is my solve.

Bringing this forward

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Good news this push being so far off base is why I found you town

Ah





What

I know how wolfs generally push me and how towns generally push me. You are town... wrong and using an incorrect ideology of how I should play this happens...a lot...

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

I could have let it Rand

But then what kind of cred would you get from that?

None but there's a 50% chance my team is in a better place and I always play those odds.

Sure SVS dies eventually but I can make that take longer and have one more dead town

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

Possibly

[☆Princess Abigail☆]

honestly dont care if I die much

Well that would certainly match the 2 revealed mafia in behavior this game

Yes and?

[Thunal33]

It's probably not Wilgy/LoRab because Wilgy parked his vote on LoRab twice now and wants to resolve her. DM/LoRab or Wilgy/DM are both plausible afaik. Wilgy actively didn't want DM.

[Thunal33]

Having read the most recent page, and gone through SVS posts.... they ping me the post so voting for them (SVS)... Scotty might be wolf, but I don't see it personally.

Having read the most recent page, and gone through SVS posts.... they ping me the post so voting for them (SVS)... Scotty might be wolf, but I don't see it personally.

can you elaborate why? also how much time do you have to play in the next 140 minutes

They are right like in the middle when it comes to posting activity; mostly fluff yet opportunistic enough to jump on the Scotty vote... IDK, it's not a lot but it's my read.

And I have like the next 40 minutes and then I have to go offline

I'm back to thinking it's DM. This is the start of her SVS suspicion and it seems really thin and arbitrary. She was immediately drawn to SVS and had this reason to suspect her, so either she has a really good gut, is really lucky, or is a wolf who finds her partner wolfier than she actually is.

[VOTE: DM] aubergine

[Thunal33]

Highly doubt they're teamed | Unlikely to be teamed | Maybe compatible even if I don't feel it | Compatible

The names in this table are the names in my POE pool. This is how I further narrow down suspects.

~ Thunal is a goofy or bad fit with everyone else save the zero poster. That's a pretty good indicator in her favor.

~ ts account is compatible with everyone by default. There is no further rationale there.

Per this table, the following teams of four are possible with completely mutual yellow blocks.

[Michelle, LoRab, S~V~S, ts account]
---
[Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, ts account]
---
??? That might be it? I don't see another one off-hand, but I'll keep scoping my table. It's hard to tell lol.

Teams that work if I allow the softest green color to be treated as yellow:

[Michelle, Abigail, ts account, Scotty]
---
[Michelle, Abigail, LoRab, Scotty]
---
[Michelle, LoRab, ts account, Scotty]
---
Not seeing another at the moment, but I am also going blind. I will indicate if I see another. But here are two viable teams and three more semi-viable teams. So defines the POE:

{Michelle, LoRab, ts account, S~V~S ||| Abigail, Scotty}

This has been me fully showing my work for why my solve is my solve.

Bringing this forward

This makes me feel more confident there's at least one wolf outside JJJ's PoE. The only way this teammate analysis works is if the team is exactly Abi/LoRab which it's not because Abi is town.

[Bereft]

These wagons never catch a wolf :{

bbl

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: thunal ] aubergine

[RondoDimBuckle]

Am I the only one thinking dm and thunal are cross voting because they're both trying to get cred for the other? Is that just me being paranoid?

[RondoDimBuckle]

Screenshot 2023-12-20 081958.png (62.18 KiB) Viewed 53710 times

no neon vote yet and lorab has again said nothing

[DrWilgy]

What's going on in here?

[DrWilgy]

Poll runs till Tue Dec 19, 2023 5:25 pm
Please note that if you vote, your vote will be visible.

You may select 1 option


Bereft
0
No votes
Voters: None
DarlingMonroe
1
8%
Voters: Thunal33
DrWilgy
1
8%
Voters: Bereft
LoRab
2
17%
Voters: DrWilgy, Scotty
Princess Abigail
0
No votes
Voters: None
robyn
0
No votes
Voters: None
RondoDimBuckle
0
No votes
Voters: None
Scotty
0
No votes
Voters: None
Thunal33
3
25%
Voters: robyn, RondoDimBuckle, DarlingMonroe

[DrWilgy]

Ah, Rondo jus did that.

[DrWilgy]

So we live in two worlds with a spread like this:
World A. It's LoRab +1 and we are in easy world. Yeet LoRab and find the person clinging to dear life.
World B. It's two wolves who have at least enough people saying they are town we don't know which direction to go. (I'm still of the opinion like Abi, Thunal, Robyn fit this mold)

[DrWilgy]

Part of me wants it to be like, Scotty/Abi + LoRab just so Jay could be correct through early assocs.

[RondoDimBuckle]

[VOTE: DM ] aubergine ties go brr

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: Abi] aubergine

Hear me out, the holy 8 way tie

[DrWilgy]

Half the mind to toss Abi for the same reason to toss LoRab. No way to validate Abi's pushes as bus or not based on their nature. Abi's entire response to me bringing that up was "do it" so I'm like "k"

LoRab just isn't here, and everyone but these two at least have someone else advocating for them.

[DrWilgy]

That wasn't a complete thought.

*Advocating for them in a way that makes me think twice about the yeet.

[RondoDimBuckle]

Half the mind to toss Abi for the same reason to toss LoRab. No way to validate Abi's pushes as bus or not based on their nature. Abi's entire response to me bringing that up was "do it" so I'm like "k"

LoRab just isn't here, and everyone but these two at least have someone else advocating for them.

Doesnt that mean that they are not being protected by a wolf?

also I was advocating for Neon for the last two days but her unwillingness to provide me the glory for the SVS kill is suspect

[RondoDimBuckle]

That wasn't a complete thought.

*Advocating for them in a way that makes me think twice about the yeet.

understandable have a nice day

[DrWilgy]

I'm skimming SVS and I'm like "last wolves are in Bereft and Abi"

Also the more I skim the more I think Maybe LoRab isn't the way? Like, there was a moment where SVS moved to bus Michelle, but was like "look at the tasty LoRab over here."

[RondoDimBuckle]

I'm skimming SVS and I'm like "last wolves are in Bereft and Abi"

Also the more I skim the more I think Maybe LoRab isn't the way? Like, there was a moment where SVS moved to bus Michelle, but was like "look at the tasty LoRab over here."

Wouldnt that indicate more that lorab is bad? not less?

[Bereft]

4K