Battle of the Bands Mafia [ENDGAME]

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Who stays in the competition?

Poll ended at Wed Jan 17, 2024 5:00 pm

The Boomtown Rats - I Don't Like Mondays
2
20%
The Evens - Timothy Wright
1
10%
Even Rats Go Boom - Can't Stand Tim Either (The Host, the Non, the Dead, the Performers)
7
70%
 
Total votes: 10
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#751

Post by Cape90 »

pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#752

Post by Cape90 »

pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:34 am can you tell me why u think nutella and long con are town?
yes and ty for letting me sleep I got a wonderful 9 hours

Nutella is acting strange and so I might be overthinking it. I'm even willing to call you two a personal difference check for how I'm reading the game. I think of Nutella as more active, more "towny" although that's not super helpful, and often getting N1'd for being obv town from the wolves' perspective. I don't see that here.

However, the general willingness from the thread to scumread Nutella feels less like town being correct and more conf bias + wolves being fine with chopping town Nutella. Enough that I'm think I'm willing to try to yank the wagons off Nutella and.....

Long Con! LC is just scumreading townies again. Doesn't feel like when I wolfed with him and he had awkward TMI problems.

This + the entire thread being happy with these two wagons tells me they are both town wagons.
i can atest to killing nutella night 1 as wolf for being towny
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#753

Post by Cape90 »

LoRab wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 4:29 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:14 pm Allow me to add to my PoE conclusions, that Nutella/LC are the closest thing I've seen/felt to a dif check this game.

They aren't aligned and it's hard to think that there isn't a wolf in one of the players that kicked up the wagon on Robyn.
I'm not entirely convinced that they both could be bad. That said, I'm not seeing bad Nutella, personally, but I realize others are and I guess the reasons--especially as they are from people who have played with her more recently. However, one flipping bad doesn't mean that the other one isn't also bad.

Did that make any sense outside of my brain?
this is very overexplained and i don't like it
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#754

Post by Long Con »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:13 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:12 pm quick thought about mechanics: i think the optimal way to play this setup is to treat it like a normal mafia game, and simply do your best to figure out which person u want to vote out picked which song

this incentivizes t he wolfteam to choose songs that would be really hard to identify as coming from them, which is something im keeping in mind
You know, that is the problem I have with the setup though, it encourages play like this instead of what I imagine the intention is which is... you know, an actual fair battle of the bands thing going on, like we aren't incentivized to be honest with our votes when the time comes
That supposes a knowledge of other players' music preferences, but I have no clue about anyone, so from my perspective, there's no possibility of musical deception.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#755

Post by Cape90 »

nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:27 pm man I'm trying to see a world where you really believe what you're saying but this just looks soooooo forced
if only you could force out content that... at least substantial :slick:
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#756

Post by Cape90 »

DrWilgy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:28 pm
Long Con wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:24 pm Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:24 pm LoRab
LoRab wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:13 pm
Long Con wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:53 pm Good thoughts, LoRab! Welcome to the game.

What kind of strategy were you thinking? Someone suggested putting up one (town) player to try and boost their power, and one (wolf) player to eliminate... but that plan has an obvious downside, were we to pick the wrong song. Who suggested that? Suspicious.
I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.
Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)
It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.
Aye, so it is in fact risky for a wolf to say. Wolves, who are too wrong too often, inevitably run the course of 'why are they wrong so much? Oh, its because they are a wolf' by enabling being wrong, for seemingly no reward, all it does is add content to the thread that help us explore LoRab's headspace. I don't think a W actively needs to do that, so why would W LoRab do this?

There definitely is a sense of 'credit' when a flip hasn't happened yet. It goes back to the 'correct vs incorrect' at the very least, LoRab would've obtained the argument 'BUT I WAS CORRECT ABOUT W ROBYN' vote placed or not.

Pretty sure SPF saw the same thing and said specifically, if LoRab was a wolf, that the post is clever, and I agree with that completely. If LoRab is a wolf and made that post, it very effectively broke down a sense of TMI in town observers and also put them on the incorrect side of the flip, trading that cushion for a firm appearance as town. I really don't think wolves inherently do that, if W LoRab did it was in fact very lv3 wolf play, and thus it's just more likely a town play.
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:37 pm Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut
Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:10 am I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now
This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 am Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird
and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.
Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.
Abi as a player makes very good town reads regardless of alignment. They either utilize TMI OR they are just good at town reading the correct players. When Abi is correct too often or incorrect too often, can you find the reason as to why they were incorrect? That's how you find Abi's alignment. If Abi gives an unearned tr that is incorrect, you probably found their partner. When Abi doesn't give a tr that should be more obvious, that's where you've found their push. It's very much a meta call on this behavior, but it's observable and I've seen it several times now. Abi is hard to read d1 and easier to read late game because of this and thus the read on Abi becomes 'inevitable.'
slightly bothered by this and the Abi segment in general
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#757

Post by Cape90 »

LoRab wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:53 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:05 pm
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:02 pm what is going on here lol
it's a repeat of Timelines Mafia

town is once again slacking

I have once again solved the game

Long Con is once again ignoring my solve
He's not ignoring it. He's bad.
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:30 pm and yeah it does look like we'll be up against each other today so I do have to hope you're a hit but nothing you're doing is really causing any doubt
He's so clearly bad. He's spreading chaos. Like he does when he's evil. FEBbers gonna FEB.

He isn't even trying to pretend to seem civ at this point.
What kind of chaos is Long Con spreading? Usually when I think of mafia spreading things to cause confusion it's with like... PR claims and throwing as much at the wall as possible to disorientate town from the actual solve. Like Long Con seems fairly set in suspecting DrWilgy/nutella and really has not strayed from that
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#758

Post by Cape90 »

Porscha wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:26 pm God, it's like my brain's that tree,
and spf are those little cookie elves.
what does this metaphor mean?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#759

Post by Cape90 »

pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:19 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 9:23 pm to be clear im not ~that confident about nutella/LC being unaligned but the way nutella has kinda anchored herself into the game by constantly pushing on LC and calling him wolfy kinda reads to me as a wolf who is trying to get him miseliminated more than partners doing a distancing play
but see like

I don't like you hedging here

your world view is Nutella scum, Long Con town. own it

hedging like this just feels like what you're arguing Nutella is doing, setting up a Long Con mischop, except in your case it's after a Nutella mischop

I do agree that Nutella and Long Con seem weirdly committed to being the two wagons of the day, I would even interpret it in your world view, if I didn't think that you're helping create TvT wagons

I also never said "wolves are sitting back" and that whole bit, I explicitly said that you feel like you're setting up TvT wagons...and look, here are you hedging on TvT wagons
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:20 am
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 10:01 pm bleh i don't know sometimes LC is just inscrutable as town
this. this times a thousand, folks
part of me tinfoils this as scummy, The other part thinks it's really towny.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#760

Post by Cape90 »

pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:33 am @Porscha I agree that there are two worlds here

game "easy", weird Nutella is scum, Long Con is town, you're town, SPF town, more solving to come

game "overthinking", weird Nutella is truly suffering from lack of content (note: who is Nutella using this argument with the most? need to re-read), Long Con is town, you're town, SPF is scum, and I want to kill Sheep just cuz
if the easy and overthinking game both have Long Con as town, what does that mean for voters of Long Con then? Right now, they are DrWilgy/LoRab/nutella. If you ask me, I find 2 of these names to be very probable mafia, and the other... unlikely.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#761

Post by Cape90 »

Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:51 am 13 player game... hard to say if 2 or 3 wolves
in mountainous I would lean 3
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#762

Post by Cape90 »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:03 am
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:01 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:53 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:52 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:49 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:46 am And pyxxy's confidence that I'm civ... is pyxxy the only one with that perspective? I thought there might have been one more player that at least gave me the benefit of the doubt. Maybe not.

Anyway, I'm saying that could be TMI from Wolf pyxxy. And it makes me a little sad to say it, because I love the things pyxxy says about me.
what about his read on you specifically makes you think it's tmi
The fact that he's right.
so you think you've been really wolfy in so that everybody should be scum reading you? lol
"people townreading me are sus, because I know I'm town, which if you follow the logic means that anyone who thinks I'm scum are not sus, and thus town, because they are trying to chop a town"
Jesus Christ, all I said was it could be TMI. I don't understand why that's so wrong to say.
hmm, I honestly haven't been wolfreading you as of late, but I have caught 2 wolves in a row for their usage of TMI and ever since then, i tinfoil that dang word :charlieblackmon:
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#763

Post by Long Con »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:51 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:03 am
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:01 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:53 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:52 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:49 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:46 am And pyxxy's confidence that I'm civ... is pyxxy the only one with that perspective? I thought there might have been one more player that at least gave me the benefit of the doubt. Maybe not.

Anyway, I'm saying that could be TMI from Wolf pyxxy. And it makes me a little sad to say it, because I love the things pyxxy says about me.
what about his read on you specifically makes you think it's tmi
The fact that he's right.
so you think you've been really wolfy in so that everybody should be scum reading you? lol
"people townreading me are sus, because I know I'm town, which if you follow the logic means that anyone who thinks I'm scum are not sus, and thus town, because they are trying to chop a town"
Jesus Christ, all I said was it could be TMI. I don't understand why that's so wrong to say.
hmm, I honestly haven't been wolfreading you as of late, but I have caught 2 wolves in a row for their usage of TMI and ever since then, i tinfoil that dang word :charlieblackmon:
Then you should have several wolf reads off that tell already this game. Why single me out?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#764

Post by DrWilgy »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:31 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:28 pm
Long Con wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:24 pm Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:24 pm LoRab
LoRab wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:13 pm
Long Con wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:53 pm Good thoughts, LoRab! Welcome to the game.

What kind of strategy were you thinking? Someone suggested putting up one (town) player to try and boost their power, and one (wolf) player to eliminate... but that plan has an obvious downside, were we to pick the wrong song. Who suggested that? Suspicious.
I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.
Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)
It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.
Aye, so it is in fact risky for a wolf to say. Wolves, who are too wrong too often, inevitably run the course of 'why are they wrong so much? Oh, its because they are a wolf' by enabling being wrong, for seemingly no reward, all it does is add content to the thread that help us explore LoRab's headspace. I don't think a W actively needs to do that, so why would W LoRab do this?

There definitely is a sense of 'credit' when a flip hasn't happened yet. It goes back to the 'correct vs incorrect' at the very least, LoRab would've obtained the argument 'BUT I WAS CORRECT ABOUT W ROBYN' vote placed or not.

Pretty sure SPF saw the same thing and said specifically, if LoRab was a wolf, that the post is clever, and I agree with that completely. If LoRab is a wolf and made that post, it very effectively broke down a sense of TMI in town observers and also put them on the incorrect side of the flip, trading that cushion for a firm appearance as town. I really don't think wolves inherently do that, if W LoRab did it was in fact very lv3 wolf play, and thus it's just more likely a town play.
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:37 pm Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut
Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:10 am I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now
This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 am Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird
and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.
Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.
Abi as a player makes very good town reads regardless of alignment. They either utilize TMI OR they are just good at town reading the correct players. When Abi is correct too often or incorrect too often, can you find the reason as to why they were incorrect? That's how you find Abi's alignment. If Abi gives an unearned tr that is incorrect, you probably found their partner. When Abi doesn't give a tr that should be more obvious, that's where you've found their push. It's very much a meta call on this behavior, but it's observable and I've seen it several times now. Abi is hard to read d1 and easier to read late game because of this and thus the read on Abi becomes 'inevitable.'
slightly bothered by this and the Abi segment in general
Why?
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
Spoiler: show
Image Image Image
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#765

Post by DrWilgy »

*writes meta explanation on how Abi utilizes trs and how to read between the lines on it with examples and explanation.

Cape: no
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
Spoiler: show
Image Image Image
JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#766

Post by DrWilgy »

Like, that was a 7 sentence paragraph detailing on how I think to solve Abi, I shouldn't have or need to respond to a disagreement on it with a blanket "why."
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#767

Post by DrWilgy »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:09 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:14 pm Allow me to add to my PoE conclusions, that Nutella/LC are the closest thing I've seen/felt to a dif check this game.

They aren't aligned and it's hard to think that there isn't a wolf in one of the players that kicked up the wagon on Robyn.
Out of a pool of *checks notes* 2 players...

being on robyn is the last reason I am voting nutella
Neat, the 2 person wagon that kept you and sheep potentially out of elimination as if that's somehow insignificant?

Solving Nutella/LC is only slightly less important than solving Pyx at this junction.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#768

Post by DrWilgy »

Almost EoD and I'm actually short on time this cycle.

LC has significantly more resistance than Nutella, but the phase has felt pretty wagon stagnant. Oh well, with dueling wagons this game, I'm not sure if I'd be able to tell.

I feel like a teammate would be pushing for a 3rd option if one of these two were bad and I don't see that happening.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#769

Post by DrWilgy »

Eeeeeeeh... Idk wagononics are weird this game. It's entirely possible that stagnation is caused by "safer" bussing as the wagons effectively cause a coin flip anyways.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#770

Post by Long Con »

DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:17 pm Almost EoD and I'm actually short on time this cycle.

LC has significantly more resistance than Nutella, but the phase has felt pretty wagon stagnant. Oh well, with dueling wagons this game, I'm not sure if I'd be able to tell.

I feel like a teammate would be pushing for a 3rd option if one of these two were bad and I don't see that happening.
Maybe my Wolf team just believes in the power of my song. :feb:

A Wolf has a significant advantage in a musical duel against a Townie, because they are automatically up two votes, assuming a team of three.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#771

Post by DrWilgy »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:20 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:17 pm Almost EoD and I'm actually short on time this cycle.

LC has significantly more resistance than Nutella, but the phase has felt pretty wagon stagnant. Oh well, with dueling wagons this game, I'm not sure if I'd be able to tell.

I feel like a teammate would be pushing for a 3rd option if one of these two were bad and I don't see that happening.
Maybe my Wolf team just believes in the power of my song. :feb:

A Wolf has a significant advantage in a musical duel against a Townie, because they are automatically up two votes, assuming a team of three.
Ew, I didn't think about that. I don't like that and the fact that we had a Muslim with no vote feels even worse in hindsight now.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#772

Post by Long Con »

Yeah, that ugly factor just occurred to me. Town needs to get better bonuses for surviving a Battle.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#773

Post by DrWilgy »

I'm sitting here thinking about the stifled wagons and Cape is really pinging my tinfoil.

Some items I saw during the catch-up seem gross.

The vote on Nutella is effectively pointless putting LC and Nutella still battling.

I'm realizing that Abigail never gave cape a tr this game. (Doesn't Abigail normally read Cape well or is that misinformation? Putting in parentheses as I don't know for sure.)

Cape's TR of sheep (that I still disagree with) felt the most inorganic of the sheep readers.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#774

Post by DrWilgy »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:23 pm Yeah, that ugly factor just occurred to me. Town needs to get better bonuses for surviving a Battle.
You me "we need better bonuses?" :eye:
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#775

Post by DrWilgy »

Dammit lol,

I kinda wanna swap from LC to Cape, but should reread both wagons first. I didn't trust my gut enough during Wolfwalkers and it's making me desire to be more impulsive, in spite of rationally thinking figuring out the wolf between LC and Nutella would be super valuable.
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#776

Post by Long Con »

DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:32 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:23 pm Yeah, that ugly factor just occurred to me. Town needs to get better bonuses for surviving a Battle.
You me "we need better bonuses?" :eye:
ha-ha
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#777

Post by Long Con »

DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:33 pm Dammit lol,

I kinda wanna swap from LC to Cape, but should reread both wagons first. I didn't trust my gut enough during Wolfwalkers and it's making me desire to be more impulsive, in spite of rationally thinking figuring out the wolf between LC and Nutella would be super valuable.
No, don't. I'm looking forward to playing my song.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#778

Post by LoRab »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:59 am That predates Mafia. For us.
I’m fairly certain it predates my time in the land of OT at all. I’ve only known you with this name.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#779

Post by DrWilgy »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:45 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:33 pm Dammit lol,

I kinda wanna swap from LC to Cape, but should reread both wagons first. I didn't trust my gut enough during Wolfwalkers and it's making me desire to be more impulsive, in spite of rationally thinking figuring out the wolf between LC and Nutella would be super valuable.
No, don't. I'm looking forward to playing my song.
I will respect your wishes.

I do wish I had time to iso Cape before EoD. If one of you beautiful people could do that for me and lmk what you think Idt appreciate it.
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insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#780

Post by LoRab »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:34 pm
LoRab wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:53 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:05 pm
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:02 pm what is going on here lol
it's a repeat of Timelines Mafia

town is once again slacking

I have once again solved the game

Long Con is once again ignoring my solve
He's not ignoring it. He's bad.
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:30 pm and yeah it does look like we'll be up against each other today so I do have to hope you're a hit but nothing you're doing is really causing any doubt
He's so clearly bad. He's spreading chaos. Like he does when he's evil. FEBbers gonna FEB.

He isn't even trying to pretend to seem civ at this point.
What kind of chaos is Long Con spreading? Usually when I think of mafia spreading things to cause confusion it's with like... PR claims and throwing as much at the wall as possible to disorientate town from the actual solve. Like Long Con seems fairly set in suspecting DrWilgy/nutella and really has not strayed from that
He has mentioned me a few times. And has just been posting ridiculousness. He’s trying to distract us.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#781

Post by Cape90 »

Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:58 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:51 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:03 am
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:01 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:53 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:52 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:49 am

what about his read on you specifically makes you think it's tmi
The fact that he's right.
so you think you've been really wolfy in so that everybody should be scum reading you? lol
"people townreading me are sus, because I know I'm town, which if you follow the logic means that anyone who thinks I'm scum are not sus, and thus town, because they are trying to chop a town"
Jesus Christ, all I said was it could be TMI. I don't understand why that's so wrong to say.
hmm, I honestly haven't been wolfreading you as of late, but I have caught 2 wolves in a row for their usage of TMI and ever since then, i tinfoil that dang word :charlieblackmon:
Then you should have several wolf reads off that tell already this game. Why single me out?
the only other person in the context of the read bothering me by is kinda SPF (as im talking more about how it's used versus it being used in general). So there isn't a lot of others to point out
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#782

Post by Long Con »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:54 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:58 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:51 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:03 am
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:01 am
Porscha wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:53 am
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:52 am

The fact that he's right.
so you think you've been really wolfy in so that everybody should be scum reading you? lol
"people townreading me are sus, because I know I'm town, which if you follow the logic means that anyone who thinks I'm scum are not sus, and thus town, because they are trying to chop a town"
Jesus Christ, all I said was it could be TMI. I don't understand why that's so wrong to say.
hmm, I honestly haven't been wolfreading you as of late, but I have caught 2 wolves in a row for their usage of TMI and ever since then, i tinfoil that dang word :charlieblackmon:
Then you should have several wolf reads off that tell already this game. Why single me out?
the only other person in the context of the read bothering me by is kinda SPF (as im talking more about how it's used versus it being used in general). So there isn't a lot of others to point out
I wouldn't put too much stock in it. It's probably just me spreading chaos.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#783

Post by Cape90 »

DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:06 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:31 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:28 pm
Long Con wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:24 pm Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:24 pm LoRab
LoRab wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:13 pm
Long Con wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:53 pm Good thoughts, LoRab! Welcome to the game.

What kind of strategy were you thinking? Someone suggested putting up one (town) player to try and boost their power, and one (wolf) player to eliminate... but that plan has an obvious downside, were we to pick the wrong song. Who suggested that? Suspicious.
I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.
Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)
It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.
Aye, so it is in fact risky for a wolf to say. Wolves, who are too wrong too often, inevitably run the course of 'why are they wrong so much? Oh, its because they are a wolf' by enabling being wrong, for seemingly no reward, all it does is add content to the thread that help us explore LoRab's headspace. I don't think a W actively needs to do that, so why would W LoRab do this?

There definitely is a sense of 'credit' when a flip hasn't happened yet. It goes back to the 'correct vs incorrect' at the very least, LoRab would've obtained the argument 'BUT I WAS CORRECT ABOUT W ROBYN' vote placed or not.

Pretty sure SPF saw the same thing and said specifically, if LoRab was a wolf, that the post is clever, and I agree with that completely. If LoRab is a wolf and made that post, it very effectively broke down a sense of TMI in town observers and also put them on the incorrect side of the flip, trading that cushion for a firm appearance as town. I really don't think wolves inherently do that, if W LoRab did it was in fact very lv3 wolf play, and thus it's just more likely a town play.
Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:37 pm Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut
Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:10 am I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now
This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 am Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird
and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.
Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.
Abi as a player makes very good town reads regardless of alignment. They either utilize TMI OR they are just good at town reading the correct players. When Abi is correct too often or incorrect too often, can you find the reason as to why they were incorrect? That's how you find Abi's alignment. If Abi gives an unearned tr that is incorrect, you probably found their partner. When Abi doesn't give a tr that should be more obvious, that's where you've found their push. It's very much a meta call on this behavior, but it's observable and I've seen it several times now. Abi is hard to read d1 and easier to read late game because of this and thus the read on Abi becomes 'inevitable.'
slightly bothered by this and the Abi segment in general
Why?
Seemed like a good way to leverage weight into Princess Abigail's reads. Especially since, I really am not sure I agree with them
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#784

Post by pyxxy »

welp

[VOTE: Nutella] aubergine
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#785

Post by pyxxy »

This is me acquiescing

I'm going after SPF again tomorrow
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#786

Post by pyxxy »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:17 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
it reads as extremely post-facto, which is a phrase I just made up

it's a read based entirely in the past and with little risk to the present

it looks like work, but with the thread somewhat leaving Porscha alone and thus spewing her as town, along with Porscha's obvious solving, this is a lot of words to make a read look more thoughtful and developed than it actually is

it's not solving to post "Porscha town and uhhhhh the wagons look gr8, better flip both of them to be super sure there's not a wolf in there"
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#787

Post by Long Con »

Well, nutella, at least neither of us have to be worried about being nightkilled tonight! :grin:
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#788

Post by nutella »

At this point I'm just looking forward to people hearing my song I guess
to the spoiler go the victories:
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#789

Post by Porscha »

DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:16 pm
Long Con wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:45 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:33 pm Dammit lol,

I kinda wanna swap from LC to Cape, but should reread both wagons first. I didn't trust my gut enough during Wolfwalkers and it's making me desire to be more impulsive, in spite of rationally thinking figuring out the wolf between LC and Nutella would be super valuable.
No, don't. I'm looking forward to playing my song.
I will respect your wishes.

I do wish I had time to iso Cape before EoD. If one of you beautiful people could do that for me and lmk what you think Idt appreciate it.
I did it last night and it's why he is merh poe for me. like it wasn't "ah yeah this guy is a wolf" kind of read for me - it was just... ... ... bland. it didn't make me think "this is def town cape" like how spf said she felt. I guess I'd say he feels relatively null. i'm kind of just not used to this style of one liner cape but nothing he has said or done is really leaning me one way or the other either. I don't really like how he recently said he didnt like your abi line and at this point like if he flipped wolf Id just be like: ok

so that's why he is poe for me
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#790

Post by Porscha »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:59 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 2:06 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:31 pm
DrWilgy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:28 pm
Long Con wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:24 pm Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

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DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:24 pm LoRab
LoRab wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:13 pm

I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.
Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)
It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.
Aye, so it is in fact risky for a wolf to say. Wolves, who are too wrong too often, inevitably run the course of 'why are they wrong so much? Oh, its because they are a wolf' by enabling being wrong, for seemingly no reward, all it does is add content to the thread that help us explore LoRab's headspace. I don't think a W actively needs to do that, so why would W LoRab do this?

There definitely is a sense of 'credit' when a flip hasn't happened yet. It goes back to the 'correct vs incorrect' at the very least, LoRab would've obtained the argument 'BUT I WAS CORRECT ABOUT W ROBYN' vote placed or not.

Pretty sure SPF saw the same thing and said specifically, if LoRab was a wolf, that the post is clever, and I agree with that completely. If LoRab is a wolf and made that post, it very effectively broke down a sense of TMI in town observers and also put them on the incorrect side of the flip, trading that cushion for a firm appearance as town. I really don't think wolves inherently do that, if W LoRab did it was in fact very lv3 wolf play, and thus it's just more likely a town play.
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DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:37 pm Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut
Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:10 am I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now
This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 am Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird
and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.
Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.
Abi as a player makes very good town reads regardless of alignment. They either utilize TMI OR they are just good at town reading the correct players. When Abi is correct too often or incorrect too often, can you find the reason as to why they were incorrect? That's how you find Abi's alignment. If Abi gives an unearned tr that is incorrect, you probably found their partner. When Abi doesn't give a tr that should be more obvious, that's where you've found their push. It's very much a meta call on this behavior, but it's observable and I've seen it several times now. Abi is hard to read d1 and easier to read late game because of this and thus the read on Abi becomes 'inevitable.'
slightly bothered by this and the Abi segment in general
Why?
Seemed like a good way to leverage weight into Princess Abigail's reads. Especially since, I really am not sure I agree with them
your reads. present them
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#791

Post by Porscha »

pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:25 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:17 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
it reads as extremely post-facto, which is a phrase I just made up

it's a read based entirely in the past and with little risk to the present

it looks like work, but with the thread somewhat leaving Porscha alone and thus spewing her as town, along with Porscha's obvious solving, this is a lot of words to make a read look more thoughtful and developed than it actually is

it's not solving to post "Porscha town and uhhhhh the wagons look gr8, better flip both of them to be super sure there's not a wolf in there"
it's also a debatable point in general lol. if I was suspected I think someone would dislike that it felt like I was hiding or making up my reasons. but nobody has at any point suspected me so that leads into pyxxy's point. why bother making the post lol (probs half just to pocket me)
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#792

Post by DrWilgy »

I have decided to disrespect Longus Conguses wishes.

[VOTE: cape] aubergine
nutella wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image
@DrWilgy don't post any more k
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JaggedJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertnamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#793

Post by Porscha »

LoRab wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 3:20 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:34 pm
LoRab wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 8:53 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:05 pm
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:02 pm what is going on here lol
it's a repeat of Timelines Mafia

town is once again slacking

I have once again solved the game

Long Con is once again ignoring my solve
He's not ignoring it. He's bad.
nutella wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:30 pm and yeah it does look like we'll be up against each other today so I do have to hope you're a hit but nothing you're doing is really causing any doubt
He's so clearly bad. He's spreading chaos. Like he does when he's evil. FEBbers gonna FEB.

He isn't even trying to pretend to seem civ at this point.
What kind of chaos is Long Con spreading? Usually when I think of mafia spreading things to cause confusion it's with like... PR claims and throwing as much at the wall as possible to disorientate town from the actual solve. Like Long Con seems fairly set in suspecting DrWilgy/nutella and really has not strayed from that
He has mentioned me a few times. And has just been posting ridiculousness. He’s trying to distract us.
Long Con wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:24 pm Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

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DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:24 pm LoRab
LoRab wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 12:13 pm
Long Con wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:53 pm Good thoughts, LoRab! Welcome to the game.

What kind of strategy were you thinking? Someone suggested putting up one (town) player to try and boost their power, and one (wolf) player to eliminate... but that plan has an obvious downside, were we to pick the wrong song. Who suggested that? Suspicious.
I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.
Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)
It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.

Spoiler: show
DrWilgy wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:11 pm Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:37 pm Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut
Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Thu Jan 04, 2024 5:10 am I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now
This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.
☆Princess Abigail☆ wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 am Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird
and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.
Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.
see above a post that I also considered just kind of out left field from LC that I think lorab would agree is a post of chaos seeds
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#794

Post by LoRab »

The truly funny thing is that LC knows that I’m not going to be able to convince this group I’m right that he’s bad. Because it’s based on meta. And I haven’t been back long enough for the new wave of players doesn’t get how I think—and certainly doesn’t know which players I can accurately read. (There is only 1 player whom I could read better than LC—and if that player ever returned, I’m pretty sure I’d still be able to read him, as I can LC). But nearly no one knows that history.

Wilgy could theoretically remember, but I don’t think we played that much together—and that he would necessarily remember. But you know who does know this? Nutella.

And thinking that through, has caused me to start suspecting her. I am starting to believe that no matter which of them wins, the mafia loses a vote in the game and gains a prize.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#795

Post by Cape90 »

pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:25 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:17 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
it reads as extremely post-facto, which is a phrase I just made up

it's a read based entirely in the past and with little risk to the present

it looks like work, but with the thread somewhat leaving Porscha alone and thus spewing her as town, along with Porscha's obvious solving, this is a lot of words to make a read look more thoughtful and developed than it actually is

it's not solving to post "Porscha town and uhhhhh the wagons look gr8, better flip both of them to be super sure there's not a wolf in there"
you know SPF hasn't been here day 1 right?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#796

Post by Porscha »

I think time spent talking on wilgy talking about abi post abi flip is a waste of time and doesn't actually show wilgy posting in a wolfy way about her

lorab point is ok. I dont' really agree but its ok point to make. just think if LC actually believed anybody was a wolf he'd be pushing harder there today and he doesn't seem anchored at all nor can I point where I feel like he is really trying to solve but just struggling to come up with good poe to make up for that. I have been told LC can play quite a solid wolf game so i'm not particularly sold on lorab's "weh ur just saaauurrr wolfy sauurrryy" but I don't know their relationship either so like w/e
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#797

Post by Porscha »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:50 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:25 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:17 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
it reads as extremely post-facto, which is a phrase I just made up

it's a read based entirely in the past and with little risk to the present

it looks like work, but with the thread somewhat leaving Porscha alone and thus spewing her as town, along with Porscha's obvious solving, this is a lot of words to make a read look more thoughtful and developed than it actually is

it's not solving to post "Porscha town and uhhhhh the wagons look gr8, better flip both of them to be super sure there's not a wolf in there"
you know SPF hasn't been here day 1 right?
yeah but it was still a pretty pointless post to make
just stacking a tr onto a universally tr'd player post town flip with the other person in mention (robyn) is like. what's the point really
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#798

Post by Long Con »

Long Con
pyxxy
Cape90

Porscha
staypositivefriend

falcon45ca
Sheep

DrWilgy
LoRab
nutella


TonyStarkPrime

I mean... my reads are usually notoriously wrong, but this is kind of a generalization of where I think I stand.

After I flip, I hope everyone goes back through LoRab's posts, which I think are the posts of a Wolf that needed to choose a stance. She thought going anti-LC was a good route, but please notice that for all the accusations of "sowing seeds of chaos" and "chaos posting ridiculousness to distract us", she has not been able to identify a single post of mine that fits that description.
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#799

Post by pyxxy »

Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:50 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:25 pm
Cape90 wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:17 pm
pyxxy wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:15 am
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:57 pm
Long Con wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:47 pm
staypositivefriend wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:45 pm kinda think that porscha's convicftion about robyn being mafia on page 4 was coming from a real place
What makes you think that? I think Porscha's town as well.
porscha's sentiment that she had secret reasons to scumread robyn that she didn't feel like posting because she knew they would be ignored and invalidated felt like a real perspective to me - i think that wolves usually like their pushes to come off as more clean and logical, and so her push being based on something secret and her digging her heels in when she got pressured made it feel like a real pov
spf apologies but I think you are scum for this post
but why?
it reads as extremely post-facto, which is a phrase I just made up

it's a read based entirely in the past and with little risk to the present

it looks like work, but with the thread somewhat leaving Porscha alone and thus spewing her as town, along with Porscha's obvious solving, this is a lot of words to make a read look more thoughtful and developed than it actually is

it's not solving to post "Porscha town and uhhhhh the wagons look gr8, better flip both of them to be super sure there's not a wolf in there"
you know SPF hasn't been here day 1 right?
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Re: Battle of the Bands Mafia [Day 2]

#800

Post by Porscha »

LoRab wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:50 pm The truly funny thing is that LC knows that I’m not going to be able to convince this group I’m right that he’s bad. Because it’s based on meta. And I haven’t been back long enough for the new wave of players doesn’t get how I think—and certainly doesn’t know which players I can accurately read. (There is only 1 player whom I could read better than LC—and if that player ever returned, I’m pretty sure I’d still be able to read him, as I can LC). But nearly no one knows that history.

Wilgy could theoretically remember, but I don’t think we played that much together—and that he would necessarily remember. But you know who does know this? Nutella.

And thinking that through, has caused me to start suspecting her. I am starting to believe that no matter which of them wins, the mafia loses a vote in the game and gains a prize.
I been saying that's a possibility but I also am unsure exactly why a wolf would bus here but also I had mentally been including wilgy's point where it almost feels like a form of soft bus or not caring so much if a wolf gets put up cuz there is a chance they don't go over anyway
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