Battle of the Bands Mafia [ENDGAME]

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: cape] aubergine

[falcon45ca]

Nice, easiest game of all time!, I knew the timing of that was sketch

Sheep's readslist was so all over the place and ??? looking

I feel YOU are sketch for pressuring Sheep & then voting SPF D1

Back to this huh?

[VOTE: nutella] aubergine

Sigh

You still feel nutella is W?




How many wolves would you speculate there are? If 3, who's the third?

[falcon45ca]

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

are you trying to force a thunderdome...

Also if you like both falcon and Porscha, wouldn't you discourage a thunderdome?

Wish I could say more about... anyone else but meh

[VOTE: staypositivefriend] aubergine

We need more people to wake up

Why do you follow up this pressure on Sheep w/ a vote for SPF?

This has never sat well w/ me

ohh right hmm


okay so it's probably one of cape or spf and not both


my poor ego if spf was town all along...

Given Porscha's flip, I think it looks good for Wilgy as well (assuming cape's Maf)

[nutella]

Given Porscha's flip, I think it looks good for Wilgy as well (assuming cape's Maf)

trace this connection for me?

[falcon45ca]

Given Porscha's flip, I think it looks good for Wilgy as well (assuming cape's Maf)

trace this connection for me?

The multitags got me mixed up.





It does look good for Wilgy based off Sheep's flip. Sheep (somewhat awkwardly) brings up a thunderdome between Porscha & Wilgy

[falcon45ca]

I fear for my life choosing songs tbh. gonna have to like, pick some of the most popular ones of the musicians I like to appeal to the masses here I think lol

or maybe I go independent. I dunno

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

This one here

[falcon45ca]

Is the solve just Cape & TSP?

[falcon45ca]

Alright, I gotta walk around, I'm fuckin' wired after that flip





@Cape90 If not you, then who?

[LoRab]

Is there a reason we no longer suspect Nutella?

[falcon45ca]

bleh i don't know sometimes LC is just inscrutable as town

Think back to literally every game you’ve played with LC. Like, all of them. He may be inscrutable as town, but he’s extremely scrutable when he’s bad.

Can you really imagine civvie LC pushing so much chaos into the thread in the way he’s doing? To be spewing ridiculous accusations against everyone left and right? This isn’t at all civ LC. His tone is entirely FEB LC

Also, you voted for him. Stick with your instinct that he is baddie mcbaderson.

The truly funny thing is that LC knows that I’m not going to be able to convince this group I’m right that he’s bad. Because it’s based on meta. And I haven’t been back long enough for the new wave of players doesn’t get how I think—and certainly doesn’t know which players I can accurately read. (There is only 1 player whom I could read better than LC—and if that player ever returned, I’m pretty sure I’d still be able to read him, as I can LC). But nearly no one knows that history.

Wilgy could theoretically remember, but I don’t think we played that much together—and that he would necessarily remember. But you know who does know this? Nutella.

And thinking that through, has caused me to start suspecting her. I am starting to believe that no matter which of them wins, the mafia loses a vote in the game and gains a prize.

I’d prefer to vote Nutella, personally.

At the moment, I’m way more convinced that LC is bad than that LA is (although I don’t think she’s civ, at the moment). I remain completely confident that LC is bad. AND, if they are both bad, LA would do much less chaos spewing, because style.

Now, to figure out whose is which.

Or strategize how to make the voting collectively for the best result.

I read this, and I see you SRing Nut simply because they didn't see what you saw in LC.





What else is informing the read?

[LoRab]

bleh i don't know sometimes LC is just inscrutable as town

Think back to literally every game you’ve played with LC. Like, all of them. He may be inscrutable as town, but he’s extremely scrutable when he’s bad.

Can you really imagine civvie LC pushing so much chaos into the thread in the way he’s doing? To be spewing ridiculous accusations against everyone left and right? This isn’t at all civ LC. His tone is entirely FEB LC

Also, you voted for him. Stick with your instinct that he is baddie mcbaderson.

The truly funny thing is that LC knows that I’m not going to be able to convince this group I’m right that he’s bad. Because it’s based on meta. And I haven’t been back long enough for the new wave of players doesn’t get how I think—and certainly doesn’t know which players I can accurately read. (There is only 1 player whom I could read better than LC—and if that player ever returned, I’m pretty sure I’d still be able to read him, as I can LC). But nearly no one knows that history.

Wilgy could theoretically remember, but I don’t think we played that much together—and that he would necessarily remember. But you know who does know this? Nutella.

And thinking that through, has caused me to start suspecting her. I am starting to believe that no matter which of them wins, the mafia loses a vote in the game and gains a prize.

I’d prefer to vote Nutella, personally.

At the moment, I’m way more convinced that LC is bad than that LA is (although I don’t think she’s civ, at the moment). I remain completely confident that LC is bad. AND, if they are both bad, LA would do much less chaos spewing, because style.

Now, to figure out whose is which.

Or strategize how to make the voting collectively for the best result.

I read this, and I see you SRing Nut simply because they didn't see what you saw in LC.





What else is informing the read?

Mostly tone. Plus, lack of actually engaging with me, despite naming me as a suspect for days. I realize that's not much--but since so many suspected her recently, I'm curious why everyone seems to have dropped her.

[falcon45ca]

Do we all feel we had 2 Maf up for flip last RD?

[LoRab]

That's what my gut tells me.

[DrWilgy]

I mean, Nutella still very much COULD be a wolf. The Robyn vote still feels abit shite and that wagon being t: t, t inherently feels wrong to me.

BUT town can make shite votes. I should actually do vca and assocs.

[DrWilgy]

lol, the only player's that voted for Sheep's song were Cape and I.

I do think that likely puts more plausibility into having multiple wolves on stage last round. Either that or TSP who didn't show up to vote is wolf.

[falcon45ca]

TSP town
Cape town
LoRab town
falcon town

nutella scum

sheep
SPF
Wilgy

yeah Nutella Sheep BotB seems great (what is this like the 4th time I've made a post like this)

Nutella Wilgy Sheep

are the only people who should be battling

that's my legacy

Hmmmmmmm

[falcon45ca]

glass beach - glass beach
4
50%
Voters: DrWilgy, LoRab, falcon45ca, Cape90
Lady Lamb - Crane Your Neck
1
13%
Voters: pyxxy
Cricket! - 1-Up
0
No votes
Voters: None

so we're consensus killing Sheep, kinda?

It would appear Maf bussed w/ town consensus on the songs, unless both nut/spf are Maf, or...





@TonyStarkPrime You Maf?

[DrWilgy]

great minds I supoops

[DrWilgy]

d1

robyn
Voters: Long Con, nutella

Sheep
Voters: Pyxxy

Cape90
Voters: falcon45ca

Long Con
Voters: Porscha

Pyxxy
Voters: robyn, DrWilgy, Cape90, ☆Princess Abigail☆

d2

TonyStarkPrime
Voters: Porscha

nutella
Voters: Long Con, staypositivefriend, Cape90, Pyxxy

Cape90
Voters: DrWilgy

Long Con
Voters: LoRab, nutella

DrWilgy
Voters: falcon45ca

n2

Cloud Cult - Chemicals Collide
Voters: staypositivefriend, LoRab

Holy Holy - Starting Line
Voters: Porscha, DrWilgy, Sheep, Pyxxy, Cape90, falcon45ca

d3

nutella
Voters: LoRab, Cape90, staypositivefriend

Sheep
Voters: falcon45ca, Pyxxy

Cape90
Voters: DrWilgy

staypositivefriend
Voters: nutella

falcon45ca
Voters: TonyStarkPrime

n3

glass beach - glass beach
Voters: DrWilgy, LoRab, falcon45ca, Cape90

Lady Lamb - Crane Your Neck
Pyxxy

Cricket! - 1-Up
Voters: None

[DrWilgy]

Recent flips aren't really changing my perspective of the game in terms of specific players. Nutella's D1 is still poor, Cape looks like they just SHOULD be a wolf.

Nutella being the vote on Robyn that kept Cape out of a battle is observable d1. That's a thing, I guess, but Cape also sent Nut to battle twice now AND didn't save Sheep n3.

EHHHHHH

Nutella/Cape/Sheep might just be incorrect the more I think about it. Like, there could be 1 in Cape/Nut, but I don't think Cape is ever with both Nut and Sheep.

[DrWilgy]

Really starting to think that the reason why the wagons might have been so shite d1 was just out of wolves being not really around. That may be the reason why me thinking both Nut/Cape should be wolf based on vote when in practice it doesn't make sense.

[DrWilgy]

[VOTE: tsp] aubergine

[staypositivefriend]

hello

[staypositivefriend]

I'm alive and we got a mafia I'll take it!

I guess SPF got the prize even though my song was better tho tbh smh but at least she's on the poll

i think pyxxy was right and spf/sheep are teamed so i will continue to [VOTE: spf] aubergine

we got this

me when i nightkill one of the main people pushing on me and then lie about their reads as an excuse to continue tunneling on a villager

[staypositivefriend]

still processing things generally but the main takeaway for me after reading through the last few pages is that i think falcon is town

personally i found it pretty towny that he was one of the first ppl to point out that he thought i submitted the glass beach song (which was a banger) even though he said he didn't like it and could have easily used that as an excuse to vote for one of nut/sheep to get the prize instead

to me it was towny that he was pushing the thread in the direction of letting me get the prize without really like directly advocating for it in a way that would give him credit - just strikes me as a weird angle for him to take if he's wolfing here

[staypositivefriend]

also yes i got the prize

the basic idea behind the prize is that the next time im voted to perform during the nightphase, i get to choose two different songs and all the votes for both songs will be counted toward me

it's pretty cool

[staypositivefriend]

i gotta admit that i'm still quite tunneled on nutella - did not like the way she used an incorrect framing pfyxyy's legacy as an excuse to continue pushing me today, do not like that she's not really trying to solve outside of me at all (though i guess you could say this is the pot calling the kettle black in some ways) and generally just think she has the worst vibes out of anyone here

that said i will dedicate some time to looking through the sheep spew and such to figure out if there's another wolf alive ~with~ nutella or who the maf might be in a world where nut is town

[staypositivefriend]

im also just going to give the disclaimer that my WIM is pretty shot right now for non-mafia related reasons but gonna do my best to keep up with this game anyway

[staypositivefriend]

tbh standard forum mafia logic tells me that there should be two wolves alive right now

or at least i think it's correct to play today with the assumption that there are

[falcon45ca]

wilgy wanting to chop me solely for the purpose of resolving counterwagons?

classic scum wilgy

May I remind you that you are PoE and still feel like wolf Pyx?

I'd be more impressed that I haven't voted you yet and are considering you against Sheep and Cape.

This might be scum. But I don't wanna put this up based on effort

Are you calling Wilgy scum here?


Cuz later (not much later) you post this

It like... Felt like when TSP came into the game, they just started jumping around suspicions

Also started suspecting SPF/falcon which I think are 2 of the townier spots besides Wilgy at this point

[falcon45ca]

Wilgy's posts on Abi and LoRab don't make sense to me.

Spoiler: show

LoRab

Good thoughts, LoRab! Welcome to the game.

What kind of strategy were you thinking? Someone suggested putting up one (town) player to try and boost their power, and one (wolf) player to eliminate... but that plan has an obvious downside, were we to pick the wrong song. Who suggested that? Suspicious.

I'm not sure. But I think it should be discussed. I don't remember who suggested that plan...but I'm not sure putting it out there to be discussed is a bad thing. I think we should all have a conversation about how to decide who to put up. I'm trying to think through a strategy that the baddies couldn't manipulate to their advantage.

I also don't remember who said that they'd probably be weird (not their word but I can't remember the word they used) and try to figure out who chose each video. I don't think that's weird at all. I mean, really--it's kind of how the game is set up. That's why we can't hint at our songs...and I can't see a strategy that doesn't involve figuring out whose music is whose once the battle begins.

Also adding, I would have likely voted for Robyn on Day 1--her reaction to being suspected, especially towards LA, was harsh--in a cornered animal kind of way. Also, she didn't seem happy in the game--in the way that many in this wave of players seem to not like being mafia (also, what's up with that?) My not being that way was one of the ways she suspected me in Ted Lasso. And her refusal to answer any suspicion really sat wrong with me. No idea where her allegiance is (or was), but my gut says not civvie.

Only real substantial post, but the timing of it is good in the fact that if Robyn flips town we can basically put LoRab down as townfirmed. Robyn is dead, we know Robyn is dead, we don't know alignment, but for LoRab to come in after the fact and be like "Robyn is Wolfy" where they could be wrong when it doesn't matter, is not something a wolf would make possible. It's not a necessary risk.

Now if Robyn is wolf, we'd need more from LoRab to see if this isn't just some sort of easy credit yoink.

(Also it was me, I brought up the discussion on who we should send to the battle to see what people advised, I'll pretty much remain going in my wolf reads though regardless)

It's not "risky" for a Wolf to say, after it's a done deal, that they would have voted for Robyn, and that she thought Robyn's play was wolfy. For you to "townfirm" LoRab over something that would basically be an easy throwaway post of "look I have no TMI" doesn't sit well at all.
Further, there's no credit to be had if LoRab was right, and Robyn had been a Wolf. LoRab didn't help find the Wolf, and trying to get credit being right while not voting for her is the thing that's more "risky", because that would expose some level of TMI.

That your presented logic is so backward makes me think that LoRab might actually be town, and you are less than subtly trying to pocket her.

Aye, so it is in fact risky for a wolf to say. Wolves, who are too wrong too often, inevitably run the course of 'why are they wrong so much? Oh, its because they are a wolf' by enabling being wrong, for seemingly no reward, all it does is add content to the thread that help us explore LoRab's headspace. I don't think a W actively needs to do that, so why would W LoRab do this?

There definitely is a sense of 'credit' when a flip hasn't happened yet. It goes back to the 'correct vs incorrect' at the very least, LoRab would've obtained the argument 'BUT I WAS CORRECT ABOUT W ROBYN' vote placed or not.

Pretty sure SPF saw the same thing and said specifically, if LoRab was a wolf, that the post is clever, and I agree with that completely. If LoRab is a wolf and made that post, it very effectively broke down a sense of TMI in town observers and also put them on the incorrect side of the flip, trading that cushion for a firm appearance as town. I really don't think wolves inherently do that, if W LoRab did it was in fact very lv3 wolf play, and thus it's just more likely a town play.

Spoiler: show

Let's do some reads before EoN. This will be post ISO skims.

Abi - Feels pretty normal, where the wolf range and town range are blurred as Abi's ability to town read players comes across easily as tmi. I'd say the lean towards town Abi seems to lay in some of the questions/discussions they are making as there's more semblance of processing their tr's rather than utilizing them.

I will advise that there seems to be hesitation on the town reads that seems to be somewhat similar to the threads momentum and that's worth note:

Robyn is now doing the thing I thought wolf robyn would do like wut

Two players had voted Robyn prior to this one

I maybe town cored Nutella to fast and I need to stop doing that but I'm not changing it now

This one is exception, there's not a momentum shift when this post happens.

Also I agree with sheep that Wilgy feels weird

and this one follows multiple voices declaring the same.

From a town perspective, there's nothing wrong with reassessment on reads, and the "yeah I agree" does happen.

From a wolf perspective, Abi is responding to momentum to keep their PoE open.

I think the only way to tell with this one is through assoc and effort. Abi should be able to find a pelt assuming they are town. The TRs being tmi will inevitably show if Abi is wolf as long as we keep an eye open to it.

Abi holds a dichotomy with SPF and Porscha against Sheep.

Worth noting that Abi has not mentioned Pyx outside of hellos yet voted for the slot.

Why did you say we'd be able to tell that Abi is Wolf by judging her townreads. How would they "inevitably" show as TMI? Are you saying she never townreads a Wolf partner? If so, then surely you have noted who she didn't townread, if it's an inevitablity? How does this statement hold any credibility if you give it away this early in the game?? You're... not worried at all that she clearly has the ability to read, and could EXTREMELY EASILY confound this so-called inevitability?

Several statements about her here, but the only thing close to an attempt to read her is the sketchy and dubious statement that I criticized above.

Abi as a player makes very good town reads regardless of alignment. They either utilize TMI OR they are just good at town reading the correct players. When Abi is correct too often or incorrect too often, can you find the reason as to why they were incorrect? That's how you find Abi's alignment. If Abi gives an unearned tr that is incorrect, you probably found their partner. When Abi doesn't give a tr that should be more obvious, that's where you've found their push. It's very much a meta call on this behavior, but it's observable and I've seen it several times now. Abi is hard to read d1 and easier to read late game because of this and thus the read on Abi becomes 'inevitable.'

slightly bothered by this and the Abi segment in general

Hmmmmmmm

[falcon45ca]

quick thought about mechanics: i think the optimal way to play this setup is to treat it like a normal mafia game, and simply do your best to figure out which person u want to vote out picked which song

this incentivizes t he wolfteam to choose songs that would be really hard to identify as coming from them, which is something im keeping in mind

You know, that is the problem I have with the setup though, it encourages play like this instead of what I imagine the intention is which is... you know, an actual fair battle of the bands thing going on, like we aren't incentivized to be honest with our votes when the time comes

This, much like Sheep's opinion on the 'spirit of the game', is an inherently wolfy perspective.






There is no way that Epi thought "I bet Town will turn off their cognitive reasoning, and rather than try to discern and consequently vote for whom they believe to be Maf, will simply select their fav song"






That would be illogical

[falcon45ca]

@TonyStarkPrime






[VOTE: tsp] aubergine

[falcon45ca]

I fear for my life choosing songs tbh. gonna have to like, pick some of the most popular ones of the musicians I like to appeal to the masses here I think lol

or maybe I go independent. I dunno

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

are you trying to force a thunderdome...

that was not serious mostly bc i was bored bc nothing was happening
i don't like this post from cape which means he's in town meta (for having a odd read on me specifically)

This is the only direct interaction I can find between Sheep & Cape, and it's what would look to be Sheep's sus of Cape, but is actually a TR

[falcon45ca]

yeah long con is a wolf

i just realized robyn died lol that took too long to connect
why did that happen
ugh i feel like porscha's stock is dropping but i can't explain why

Sheep's not afraid to push Town, albeit in a manner which makes it easy to pivot

[falcon45ca]

ok i have no motivation to make reads besides a "wilgy feels weird both in general and from what i remember of playstyle but idk it's probably a thing, porscha's towny but i also have no confidence in that, long con pings is probably just a player thing"
but based on page 3 looks like rest of pl doesn't have a lot of interest in solving either so i can absolve myself of guilt to some extent

Gives Wilgy a SR w/ easy pivot




Gives Porscha a TR w/ easy pivot




Gives a NAI read on LC

[falcon45ca]

your posts, who you are sussing, and your suspool have been clear, concise, and understandable

it's not about activity it's about clarity

scum wilgy makes his agenda clear so that it can be followed.

seems like you're saying that I'm a wolf for doing what I need to do to catch the wolves in a way that doesn't really give me anything contextually to know what exactly you're talking about.

Like, did I have an agenda when I was concerned with SPF being able to call LC and Nutella's submissions?

did I have an agenda realizing that I think Cape is more wolfy than not?

did I have an agenda begrudgingly removing Sheep from PoE for abit as players states my read was wrong?

did I have an agenda in thinking I've found town Falcon?

did I have an agenda seeing your presence vs content d1 and finding that wolfy?

Where is my agenda my friend? I have way more content than just gut feels. Who's my teammate and what exactly is the angle of you think you see one.

Now that all my townread except Falc are dead, who's my teammate? Who am I wrongly pushing and who haven't I pushed enough from your perspective?

I feel like all of these could be agenda-based at least enough that it's not the slam dunk you're presenting it as
also hhhh i need to make reads and you guys hanged robyn d1

Cool, glad we've presented why these are in fact agenda based. Glad we've also presented why you think I'd assume it's a slam dunk.

because you were presenting it like it was (at least in the tone i was reading it), maybe not a slam dunk but certainly like it was something
i'm by no means an agenda expert because that's not normally how i wolf but sure let's go thing by thing
"being concerned about spf being able to call the submissions" i mean this isn't an "agenda" per se unless your plan is to push spf, which is possible but it is very possible for maf to be concerned about town guessing submissions while realisticallly it means nothing
the word "realizing" in the second one wowee yeah that's kind of something you would do with an agenda (at least as i see it) where you re-evaluate and see who is pushable
"for a bit" makes removing somebody null because it doesn't affect your larger plan especially begrudgingly it's easy to just do that for towncred
more than likely the "agenda'd" explanation for finding town falcon is realizing somebody else is more push-able or whatever.
from my experience i think pyxxy is decently pushable so yeah sure

i don't know if i'm completely deranged but i think "having reasoning that's vaguely townlike" is fakeable though i'm missing the context for these and like i said i'm not too familiar with an agenda which is why i didn't explain it but yeah burden of proof my bad /gen

this isn't to say that these need to be agenda'd but i feel like the point you're trying to make here just doesn't work

It's worth noting that this is far and away the largest post that Sheep has, and it's on the heels of pyxxy sus of Wilgy

[falcon45ca]

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

are you trying to force a thunderdome...

Also if you like both falcon and Porscha, wouldn't you discourage a thunderdome?

Wish I could say more about... anyone else but meh

[VOTE: staypositivefriend] aubergine

We need more people to wake up

Why do you follow up this pressure on Sheep w/ a vote for SPF?

Classic falcon wolf post

i have faint memories of falcon making pushes like this as town but also they are faint and i see what you mean in that the question is performative but also lol this feels like overanalysis with the benefit of hindsight

The only interaction between Sheep & TSP

[falcon45ca]

I fear for my life choosing songs tbh. gonna have to like, pick some of the most popular ones of the musicians I like to appeal to the masses here I think lol

or maybe I go independent. I dunno

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

are you trying to force a thunderdome...

Also if you like both falcon and Porscha, wouldn't you discourage a thunderdome?

Wish I could say more about... anyone else but meh

[VOTE: staypositivefriend] aubergine

We need more people to wake up

Why do you follow up this pressure on Sheep w/ a vote for SPF?

Classic falcon wolf post

Noted that TSP is calling me a wolf for implying Cape & Sheep are teamed

[falcon45ca]

falcon ITT right now

[falcon45ca]

Erry'body else this AM

[TonyStarkPrime]

Is the simple action of talking about this, providing hint at what you pick? This is the real speculation. (porscha w btw)

no it is showcasing my indecision (wilgy w btw)

i like this post (there's a thunderdome between wilgy & porscha now btw)

are you trying to force a thunderdome...

Also if you like both falcon and Porscha, wouldn't you discourage a thunderdome?

Wish I could say more about... anyone else but meh

[VOTE: staypositivefriend] aubergine

We need more people to wake up

Why do you follow up this pressure on Sheep w/ a vote for SPF?

Classic falcon wolf post

Noted that TSP is calling me a wolf for implying Cape & Sheep are teamed

that’s not why

[TonyStarkPrime]

I did not read nor care about the contents of the ost

[TonyStarkPrime]

TSP, Lorab, Cape





I'd like to hear what @DrWilgy @nutella @staypositivefriend think of those 3

tsp lean town for bad reasons
lorab lean wolf
cape has trended down

they’re good reasons

[falcon45ca]

I did not read nor care about the contents of the ost

OK...





What have you read, and what do you care about?

[falcon45ca]

jfc

why is everyone doing this

textbook juggernaut

literally like cmon it's never the person you shrug into after shrugging into questionable day 1 and day 2s

Who is this person you were worried about?




It feels like it was Sheep, but you tell me

[TonyStarkPrime]

it wasn’t anybody

[TonyStarkPrime]

I did not read nor care about the contents of the ost

OK...





What have you read, and what do you care about?

punctuation, fun, and how passive aggressive it is

[TonyStarkPrime]

But yes it would have been sheep

[TonyStarkPrime]

What can I say, generalizations are bad