Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:48 pm
Long Con does not seem like a good kill for mafia I can't think of a single team that would want that dead unless they knew Long Con was 3p?
I took the flip as they had to choose a wincon to join and they picked the 3p, not that they knew each other.
So I figured the 3p killed Long Con.
I mean, that's possible, I just feel like joining a 3P without that player being informed in any capacity about that feels... unfortunate, I guess. Or bad game design.
I guess we'll figure out post game.
True, I don't think it needs to be talked about much. What's your read on Dunnstral?
Very towny, very thoughtful, the voice of reason in this town so far. A bit less chaotic than Scotty, but I think that their alignment shines through every post - if anyone can come up with that many genuine thoughts and stances while wolfing then I've not met them yet.
I'd say... top town right after Manny who I'm willing to lock in due to mechanics at this point.
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:54 pm
Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?
I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding
Ty for being obvious town Creature.
What have I done?
I think the stances you've taken, if my worldview is anywhere close to correct is sort of throwing if you're a wolf.
Honestly idk what I've been doing, but I think your read makes sense if Mac is a wolf here
Mac's main votes have been me Lime Manny and even tried to turn me vs Manny.
Quite frankly Mac is just hard wolfsiding and you can see the panic in their posting that's why they spammed so much. I wouldn't be surprised if TSP is just a wolf who is helping cause they've voted like, only me and you?
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
LanMisa, Lime Coke and Manny are my townreads
I mean, like, if Manny is a wolf that means they tracked/watched/whatever falcon45ca to Seanzie and decided to out it in thread, then kill Seanzie and incriminate falcon45ca the next day?
Also I believe LanMisa and Lime Coke are pretty out of their wolf ranges. Does anyone disagree with this?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:12 pm
ok bear in mind that I've apparently either gotten a lot worse at reading falcon or (more likely) he's gotten a lot better but this is pretty textbook w!falcon. Very little real aggression, no bite in questions. That said I just got him wrong in BotB so I do think he's not really in line with that meta.
Sorta irrelevant but between the mech stuff and the ISO I'd lean that he's a wolf over 3P here, especially since I think he'd at least try to play a 3P as town
here is a post where I demonstrate knowledge of both the mech stuff and the ISO, both of which I looked into somewhat extensively (ok that's a lie I didn't really look into the mech stuff that extensively but I at least did my due diligence)
Ah, sorry, it was you himself that pointed out the meta thingy yourself which makes the orange part more of a ? to me though - if you know that dipping is Falcon's base M.O. why does Falcon doing exactly that say anything about partners (the orange from earlier)?
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:54 pm
Could it be MacDougall + TonystarkPrime?
I think both have been pretty hard wolfsiding
Ty for being obvious town Creature.
What have I done?
I think the stances you've taken, if my worldview is anywhere close to correct is sort of throwing if you're a wolf.
Honestly idk what I've been doing, but I think your read makes sense if Mac is a wolf here
Mac's main votes have been me Lime Manny and even tried to turn me vs Manny.
Quite frankly Mac is just hard wolfsiding and you can see the panic in their posting that's why they spammed so much. I wouldn't be surprised if TSP is just a wolf who is helping cause they've voted like, only me and you?
Yeah, main thing selling me on Mac is that it feels like he has been mostly pushing players I townread. TSP is kinda doing the same thing.
Okay, it took me until today to realise that the poisoner works NOTHING like he does on MU and that several of my thoughts about that role were dead wrong.
Also damn, I feel sorry for the poisoner if they exist, only two shots for the whole game? What do you even do if all Mafia die early?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:56 pm
Epi is now voting someone on a critical day 4 because "you're not fun to play with". Because I reacted to a 4 vote wagon aggressively.
Epi who is himself image posting.
Epi who is himself a curmudgeon.
If I was independent in this I'd be questioning Epi as to whether not enjoying someone's playstyle is a reasonable reason to be voting them on day 4.
Easier explanation is his agenda doesn't concern the town wincon tbh.
This is a desperate but valid point, the kinda point I make as a wolf when I feel like I’m caught for the wrong reasons.
Mac wolf, Epi sk or vice versa (and I know I just made fun of Mac’s 3P read on Epi) is a distinct possibility.
I'm not convinced Epi can ever be anything but neutral at this point and I am not sure how confident I feel about bringing a signposter to endgame.
Unfortunately considering that the 3P finally started killing I also don't know if we have time to kill someone like Epi. We are 6v3v1 or 7v2v1 right now and especially the former possibility looks very unappealing...
MacDougall wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2024 11:39 pm
Brad is town via being out of his range.
Chelsea is town because she was one of Abi's top town and Abi wouldn't have been killed in any mafia teams where their top town was mafia.
Dunnstral is just towny af. Along with Lanmisa.
Epi is probably not mafia due to lack of self pres and voting with Falcon d1 off wagon but that's not for sure.
Creature is following his mafia playstyle curve and not solving the way he generally does. He's not exhibiting Creature brand paranoia
Jack is now outed by his day 1 eod vote positioning.
TSP is a bit of an IC here.
Manny has been wolfsiding all game long egregiously.
Upper POE
Epi
Lower POE
Manny
Creature
Jack
Epi is probably Mr House.
What was my D1 vote positioning?
Didn’t Manny literally bag us a wolf yesterday?
Let me frame it another way.
Manny claimed a real mafia night action as a mafia to lend credence to his assigned fake claim.
Falcon survived the initial claim. Falcon then didn't survive because a whole bunch of people not named Manny pushed him over.
Manny even initially read Falcon targeting Seanzie as probably town when he outed the action.
Far from clearing.
I didn't play right from the start of the phase (3AM...) but from when I entered it felt like Manny was rather set on Falcon being Mafia for not dying despite himself being blocked in addition to not getting back to respond/claim actions. Did I get my timeline wrong here?
TonyStarkPrime wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:45 am
uh, important to note, manny is currently alive. Which really should mean a lot.
Mafia could have this role:
The Think Tank
Once during the game during any night phase, you may select a player. If that player has any special role abilities, they will be neutralized and no longer usable for the remainder of the game. This shot is not returned if the selected player has no special abilities.
Separately, twice during the game during any separate night phases, you may select a player. You will be told if that player has ever used any non-fatal night action.
Manny is a 2 shot watcher who claimed blocked N2. Unless the shot doesn’t get burned when blocked (which iirc, is how Jay has done it in the past), Manny’s “vanilla” anyways.
I believe it was Mac who called Manny claiming blocked before it happened.
Manny was going to be doing that as mafia. He was going to be really blocked if he was town. It's wifom tbh.
He's scummy because he's wolfsiding. He voted me yesterday and kept it there despite me trying my best to read him in good faith because it was the pro wolf thing to do in the context.
If you want to clear him off of his check. I'd ask whether it actually makes sense for him to have actually made the check that he made contextually or whether it's more likely he knew Falcon's real action and claimed that because it was safer to claim a real action he knew occurred to avoid getting outed by someone else providing information that contradicted a hail Mary claim.
If you are the mafia watcher you have to claim the town watcher and you have to claim a real action. It's not clearing and aside from that he is deeply poe.
But was there any need for him to do it the way he did? Assume Manny and Falcon are Mafia and Manny felt like he had to claim something to stay alive. First question would be why claim at all - to save himself? By claiming viewing Falcon he clearly put another teammate in a difficult position later down the line though - he'd trade to get towncred in exchange for a dead teammate....and then he doesn't even go through with the bus?
It makes no sense to me mechanically, I think that there would have been better roles to claim in such a case, or better actions that don't require a teammate to die. He also makes it more likely to be targeted by the 3P if they get impatient about Manny not dying to wolves - and the Bulletproof wolf was Falcon, not Manny.
I just find this setup very hard to believe, sorry.
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:00 am
I'm sorry but the solution is there you guys just need to actually play optimally instead of wilding. I dunno why TSP is acting like we are in a bad state. This is the very first day since we got an actual pelt. It's a day to solve fiercely not a day to sleepwalk kill MacDougall. If Falcon flipped town I wouldn't begrudge you half as much.
I am beginning to think Manny is town again but I'm fairly locked on Chelsea and Creature in particular being mafia. Creature voting me d1 is actually entirely bizarre for how town Creature generally treats me, and I've not even factored that in til now.
This is very frustrating. And Lanmisa hasn't even come in yet and he's a big Mac hater lol.
You'd be surprised but I can overlook mishaps in style and just look at the pure essence behind posts despite my personal feelings on the matter. I am trying to read you and every other player with as little prejudice as possible and...
I looked atyour self-ISO and I agree with you that you look unaligned with Falcon. I am still surprised that you (unless I'm mistaken) told us exactly his role yesterday, but... with Seanzie being a copped PR I guess that wasn't that hard of a guess to make.
Manny wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:53 am
Mac why you gotta make it hard to tr you, i was going to go for it if i didnt get nk'd since i think u would've normally but that is not real if u are going to push me zzz.
I think Mac/Chelsea is a diffcheck and i dont know if i actually wanna solve that today
i kinda just wanna kill epi and see who eats the nk
Yeah, I'd advise against doing kills for fun at this stage.
Creature wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 3:59 pm
I mean, I am pretty concerned because we just sleepwalked into two mislynches on two slots (sig and NANOOK) who I didn't even have any feeling on.
rn as far as I saw it looks like falcon45ca was caught visiting Seanzie N1 and the fact Seanzie died points to a wolf rolecop?
I can be alright with that lynch considering falcon45ca disappeared and it looks something more solid than anything there ever was on sig and NANOOK.
It still kinda feels like we're just sleepwalking into mislynches. Maybe falcon45ca might be a hit, but then tomorrow we'll prob end up wagoning someone like Lime Coke (who I townread) and I don't want town to sleepwalk into a mislynch like they did the two previous days.
Today you opened with a vote on Macdougall and didn't do much else, which seems at odds with your concerns at the end of the last day.
Yeah, I am not as sold on Creature as I was on D1 anymore. I... don't think Creature does his D3 "defense" of Falcon as a wolf partner, that's outside his meta that I am aware of, but I could see a Creature 3P world.
Issue is, I am not sure if today's priority is 3P or Mafia and it really depends on what kind of 3P it is... I mean, we COULD look at a 3v3v1 kingmaker situation if all odds are against us tomorrow and we fail today.
Manny wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:08 am
actually considering im pretty sure theres 1 wolf in mac/chelsea its prolly more ev+ for me to vote chelsea today and just dome mac tomorrow if im alive and chels flips town but zzzz
I don't quite understand this train of thought and please don't lose focus, Manny, we really don't have much wiggle room here.
Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:03 pm
Knowing that if Lime wasn't in this game I would prob go over hurts my fragile ego sob.
Unfortunately yes because people don't get how to read you.
However unfortunately the push is based on you and I being alive and townreading each other when we didn't shove a maf over yet and the entire game is going after the both of us.
Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:00 pm
Bold you to assume you have that level of sway.
Pretty sure if i try i can get one of epi or creature dead over Mac, i just dont know if i want to do that yet.
I think you two are a diffcheck but currently it seems a lot more likely for him to be the town between you two, my only minor tinfoil is Mac himself asking to be bussed but i dont think thats his style.
I think that if Mac is a wolf and actively pushed by teammates right now the wolf chat was a warzone, considering how fiery he is right now.
Like, if (and that's a big if) Mac is a wolf I doubt Mac's partner is on Mac right now.
Chelsea wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 1:54 pm
I'm waiting for Mac to post cap before we just push him over tbf I have zero interest in engaging with it.
NGL I am not a fan of that.
I mean... you remember Day 1.
I am not a fan of rude behaviour regardless from whom it comes. Call it a pet peeve but I try my best (and sometimes fail, but I apologise for it) to treat everyone with respect, regardless of what alignment I read them.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:38 pm
You know what doesn’t ever help me solve Mac? Mac quoting his own iso and talking about his own meta. It’s either true cause Mac’s town or fakeable because Mac is pointing it out.
This isn’t unique to Mac, I’m just annoyed at how much of today has been Mac talking about Mac.
I disagree with that stance, if nobody else listens to you at least try to set the record straight.
Don't get me wrong, I wish there was more balance towards the "talking about others" part but then again Mac came into the game with half the cast voting for Mac.
Yeah, I... am not a fan of thunderdome voting in general. I feel like Mac has brought up some good points among the shouting. I dislike Chelsea's stance towards Mac but...
I want to remind players that with some bad luck we may be on par with Mafia after tonight if we misyeet and two more shots hit town, so... please think for a long hard minute if that is really the way to go forward here, and whether running up two big blocks is what we need to find the remaining wolves and the 3P right now.
I'll keep my vote to myself right now, I don't feel like voting either wagon and Manny's vote on Epi feels like vanity too. Hopefully we can have a more productive discussion during the second half of this phase.
"Vanity, too"..."Mac's potential partner" instead of "partners"... My writing skills used to be better than that. Guess working and playing in a chess tournament DOES make you tired.
I'll hang around for a bit if there are other thoughts but I won't be hawking over the thread either. I really hope that we can stop behaving like haters for a hot minute and try to play this game in a civil and reasonable manner while keeping our win condition in mind.
Dunnstral wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:09 am
I think Manny is likely town for having outted seeing Falcon visit. Even thouh Manny wasn't the one to initially push Falcon for it.
Macdougall as I hinted at, I don't think you jumping straight to "mafia killed Scotty" makes sense and it seems you may privy to too much information here.
Ignoring the mechanics, Manny outing his result without hard pushing Falcon proves that he's town since if that was an elaborate bussing plot there was no need to downplay it for half of D2. Manny only really went for Falcon D3 when Falcon completely dipped anyways which is a rather natural...progression is the word I am looking for.
Agreed. There's just no way Manny is anything but town.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:02 pm
There’s nothing that makes exactly one of Mac/Chelsea mafia. I don’t have to squint very hard to see t/t t/w or w/w worlds. Like…why do you think that’s a difference check?
I dont think they're ever w/w and i scumread both of them to a degree in which im confident in calling atleast one of them a wolf, hence diffcheck.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:05 pm
Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?
Realistically both, like 5-1 as soon as day starts just makes my brain think its a villa specially considering they were mostly naked votes
Just want to point out my wagon is 4/5 of the same voters that voted Nanook out over a Chelsea c/w that was probably pure if I'm right about TSP.
I know that my arguments can be dismissed individually. The thing about mafia is that there's usually room for a dissenting point of view. But I've provided more solving today than anyone. Brad has literally naked voted me and not even otherwise posted. Creature is asleep at the wheel and being called obvious town for it. It's maddening to me.
I'm being accused of hard wolfsiding by slots that have done nothing but push town. If you analyse the trackable actuals the information is vividly the other way around. The only dead mafia I pushed. Most of my other pushes are all still alive so I probably pushed other mafia. Most of my townreads are all dead. All of the people who were townreading me or treating me in good faith are also all dead.
The information is vivid. Talking about me capping is dumb. Getting uppity about me dumping quotes from my own iso is also dumb. I need to get through to you. This is how it's done.
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
LanMisa, Lime Coke and Manny are my townreads
I mean, like, if Manny is a wolf that means they tracked/watched/whatever falcon45ca to Seanzie and decided to out it in thread, then kill Seanzie and incriminate falcon45ca the next day?
Also I believe LanMisa and Lime Coke are pretty out of their wolf ranges. Does anyone disagree with this?
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:05 pm
Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?
Realistically both, like 5-1 as soon as day starts just makes my brain think its a villa specially considering they were mostly naked votes
You're familiar enough with both Creature and Brad to recognise that their curve right now is questionable right?
And Brad/Chelsea having been allowed to live as a shielding town mason pair until day 4?
Creature wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:55 pm
LanMisa, Lime Coke and Manny are my townreads
I mean, like, if Manny is a wolf that means they tracked/watched/whatever falcon45ca to Seanzie and decided to out it in thread, then kill Seanzie and incriminate falcon45ca the next day?
Also I believe LanMisa and Lime Coke are pretty out of their wolf ranges. Does anyone disagree with this?
Don’t know LAN’s range
Lan simply doesn't need to be as reasonable towards me today as he is being if he's mafia.
Brad would appear to be out of his usual range which is why I have not got him in my solve but ranges can be busted and his day 3 and day 4 have been egregious and in his mafia meta.
LanMisa wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:38 pm
I don't quite understand this train of thought and please don't lose focus, Manny, we really don't have much wiggle room here.
Yeeting Mac is easier than yeeting Chels in this gamestate therefore if i want to avoid risks in order i just kill chelsea first and Mac tomorrow.
In the world of w!Mac i can just sit and do nothing though which is why this day is annoying and i just wanna kill the obvious 3p epi, and incase they dont flip 3p they prolly flip wolf which is also good.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:02 pm
There’s nothing that makes exactly one of Mac/Chelsea mafia. I don’t have to squint very hard to see t/t t/w or w/w worlds. Like…why do you think that’s a difference check?
I dont think they're ever w/w and i scumread both of them to a degree in which im confident in calling atleast one of them a wolf, hence diffcheck.
Before their current thunderdome, did you think this and why?
MacDougall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:28 pm
Just want to point out my wagon is 4/5 of the same voters that voted Nanook out over a Chelsea c/w that was probably pure if I'm right about TSP.
I know that my arguments can be dismissed individually. The thing about mafia is that there's usually room for a dissenting point of view. But I've provided more solving today than anyone. Brad has literally naked voted me and not even otherwise posted. Creature is asleep at the wheel and being called obvious town for it. It's maddening to me.
I'm being accused of hard wolfsiding by slots that have done nothing but push town. If you analyse the trackable actuals the information is vividly the other way around. The only dead mafia I pushed. Most of my other pushes are all still alive so I probably pushed other mafia. Most of my townreads are all dead. All of the people who were townreading me or treating me in good faith are also all dead.
The information is vivid. Talking about me capping is dumb. Getting uppity about me dumping quotes from my own iso is also dumb. I need to get through to you. This is how it's done.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:32 pm
Before their current thunderdome, did you think this and why?
i've been thinking it since late d1 or mid d2, i could go find the posts that made me think so but there's no point in doing so today because first one of the two needs to die
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:05 pm
Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?
Realistically both, like 5-1 as soon as day starts just makes my brain think its a villa specially considering they were mostly naked votes
You're familiar enough with both Creature and Brad to recognise that their curve right now is questionable right?
And Brad/Chelsea having been allowed to live as a shielding town mason pair until day 4?
Show me this. Creature's curve is questionable but I've only gotten good vibes from Lime. I'm too lazy to go back and find him and Chelsea defending each other.
@Chelsea if you are town you're screwing yourself badly here. But you're going to at least need to realise that one of your voters (nearly certainly Jack) is mafia here because I've made you viable. Creature is not townie. That you have him obvious town is very hard for me to swallow.
You also called him your top town on day 1 when he'd posted nearly nothing. I just think you're partners. Your reads have not changed and if your reads were good with your approach you'd be dead.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:05 pm
Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?
Realistically both, like 5-1 as soon as day starts just makes my brain think its a villa specially considering they were mostly naked votes
You're familiar enough with both Creature and Brad to recognise that their curve right now is questionable right?
And Brad/Chelsea having been allowed to live as a shielding town mason pair until day 4?
Show me this. Creature's curve is questionable but I've only gotten good vibes from Lime. I'm too lazy to go back and find him and Chelsea defending each other.
If you're town and unaware that Brad and Chelsea have been lock townreading each other all game then town is screwed cuz it's one of the defining storylines in this game.
Jackofhearts2005 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 3:05 pm
Do you mean that there are wolves in Mac’s wagon? Do you mean that wolves would have made a viable cw if Mac was a wolf?
Realistically both, like 5-1 as soon as day starts just makes my brain think its a villa specially considering they were mostly naked votes
You're familiar enough with both Creature and Brad to recognise that their curve right now is questionable right?
And Brad/Chelsea having been allowed to live as a shielding town mason pair until day 4?
Show me this. Creature's curve is questionable but I've only gotten good vibes from Lime. I'm too lazy to go back and find him and Chelsea defending each other.
If you're town and unaware that Brad and Chelsea have been lock townreading each other all game then town is screwed cuz it's one of the defining storylines in this game.
If I summarized D1-3, Chelsea's name wouldn't be in the summary.
LanMisa wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:38 pm
I don't quite understand this train of thought and please don't lose focus, Manny, we really don't have much wiggle room here.
Yeeting Mac is easier than yeeting Chels in this gamestate therefore if i want to avoid risks in order i just kill chelsea first and Mac tomorrow.
In the world of w!Mac i can just sit and do nothing though which is why this day is annoying and i just wanna kill the obvious 3p epi, and incase they dont flip 3p they prolly flip wolf which is also good.
I think Epi is much more of a coin flip and I presently think he's very unlikely mafia because of his vote positioning at eod1.
When mafia are under no threat they usually don't end the day voting side by side on a town c/w. It's just a probability pattern. Obviously I've seen it happen but it's very >rand likely unpairing for him and Falcon to be voting together on Seanzie with me as two wolves.
The other wolves are likely spread across wagons.
Epi is also just far more in his townrange with this play than someone else would be. He's de facto retired from mafia and just plays for keks more or less.
