Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[sig]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

[sig]

I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.


Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.


Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

I'm considering the evidence in front of me, and what I said isn't even inconsistent. I acknowledged that at face value, you could fit the "who would make the wrong kill" theory just for having had sporadic involvement. That is technically true (as I see it).

I also said I don't think it's you and dedicated my attention to falcon and LoRab instead. Wilgy town read you, and you seemed town on your own. Those things are still true. I treated Epi's sons similarly. They both technically fit, and I have my doubts the same way.

Voicing a possibility out loud as I consider all the variables isn't "setting up eliminations". It's posting what's in my head. It's having conversations.

[sig]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

[sig]

Okay I need other people to weight in on my Jay thoughts since we’re just gonna keep going around and around I’m pretty sure

[sig]

I’m also really not a fan of Jay going from saying I’m locked town, to trying to set up a future vote off, using the night kill as a reason.

This screams mafia. How so? You might ask. Well simple, Jay is leading the thread right now, he needs to not only set up votes, but also give himself cover when people flip town.

That’s exactly what I see him doing right now.


Now if everyone else disagrees I’ll table it, but I think it’s as clear as day

I'm considering the evidence in front of me, and what I said isn't even inconsistent. I acknowledged that at face value, you could fit the "who would make the wrong kill" theory just for having had sporadic involvement. That is technically true (as I see it).

I also said I don't think it's you and dedicated my attention to falcon and LoRab instead. Wilgy town read you, and you seemed town on your own. Those things are still true. I treated Epi's sons similarly. They both technically fit, and I have my doubts the same way.

Voicing a possibility out loud as I consider all the variables isn't "setting up eliminations". It's posting what's in my head. It's having conversations.

What’s your thought on Lorab’s vote

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

That's exactly what I just said. Hell. This kind of logic essentially never pans out. I strongly suggest you put it somewhere far under the Earth and grow a big beautiful tree where you left it as penance. You wanted to avoid wifom, and this argument is the definition of wifom. Find your bias.

When I say "generic", I mean accusations like setting up eliminations or killing people who suspected me. Those are ordinary, every day suspicions in Mafia games. I understand why you have those suspicions. But ignoring the evidence to the contrary is pure confirmation bias.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What’s your thought on Lorab’s vote

I don't care for it. I was surprised that she agreed with my rationale when it squarely implicated her, and she submitted to the vote with no resistance. I'm not sure how to interpret that right now from the standpoint of a falcon/LoRab team theory, but it makes me suspect LoRab more on her own.

[sig]

And? Maybe you killed him so you could use this exact argument, which wait you’re doing right now to try and defend yourself. See how that works? At this point it’s literally 50/50 if you killed him, add in the scotty kill who did heavily suspect you and the night kills make a lot of sense if you’re directing them.

Also it isn’t “generic suspicion” this is what I mean the verbiage you’re using is very mafia angled. You’re attempting to write it off as generic to brush it aside.

That's exactly what I just said. Hell. This kind of logic essentially never pans out. I strongly suggest you put it somewhere far under the Earth and grow a big beautiful tree where you left it as penance. You wanted to avoid wifom, and this argument is the definition of wifom. Find your bias.

When I say "generic", I mean accusations like setting up eliminations or killing people who suspected me. Those are ordinary, every day suspicions in Mafia games. I understand why you have those suspicions. But ignoring the evidence to the contrary is pure confirmation bias.

No see wifom is good but only when I do it

[JaggedJimmyJay]

It looks like Wilgy said very little about LoRab other than including her in some POE theories. So "suspicion" existed in a token sense, albeit less overtly than Wilgy's suspicion of falcon. I don't see an immediate reason to doubt that LoRab would kill Wilgy.

[sig]

@Epignosis @Long Con

Can you both give me your thoughts on my thoughts regarding Jay?

@Simon could you give me a read list? Just what do you think each players alignment is and why

[Long Con]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

I ALWAYS think about that latter world, but it rarely happens, I agree.

The Wolves want to kill that dude badly enough that it wouldn't even have a positive value in comparison. It's possibly the best reward ever made possible to a Wolf team. It's Nuclear Armageddon for the Town at that point.

[Long Con]

@Epignosis @Long Con

Can you both give me your thoughts on my thoughts regarding Jay?

@Simon could you give me a read list? Just what do you think each players alignment is and why

I don't agree with the WIFOM angle, but I think I said that in my last post, basically. It's not worth it to Jay to make a blunder kill with those sweet double-kill stakes on the line. That had to be done by someone not realizing the several angles that reveal Wilgy wasn't their guy. I do not suspect JJJ of that slice of ignorance.

ALTHOUGH there could be a redirector. Gotta add that caveat.

I think Jay approached AtE levels of Towny frustration earlier on in the game, and I don't believe he'd bother with that as a Wolf. I think he'd be playing like he described, and that the threadmoshpere is/was ripe for that plucking. I still lean town on him.

I read some of your posts on my phone in a Taco Bell parking lot, and some while filling up gas, but I think I have the gist of your suspicion. I just believe in my read very much, based on interacting with him.

[falcon45ca]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.






I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be







Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen






[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

Now I am forced to decide which is the real kind of suspicious -- willfully ignoring the evidence (falcon), or gleefully accepting the evidence (LoRab).

BTW -- only one of those two voted outside the AS wagon. I did not mention that factor as a voting motivation, so I don't know what you're accusing me of there.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

And yes, it is cut and dry. Finally, we have something cut and dry. If civilians choose to leave it behind, that's on them.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: LoRab] aubergine

[Long Con]

We cannot accept any Shingen claims. It doesn't work. All Shingen claims are fake.

[Long Con]

Scotty's ISO is very positive toward JJJ. Until it does a slow nosedive that ends at a JJJ scumlean. His arguments against Jay's Townness might have been too accurate, for which he was killed. Give it a read. Last quarter especially. I'm not giving up my townread, but Scotty was starting to get more specific with his analysis of Jay.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Scotty and Wilgy both suspected me, and now they're dead. That's just the truth. I fully understand why someone might expect me to have killed Scotty. I have a feeling Scotty's corpse was yelling that after he died. I often do kill direct threats too. I don't worry about all that.

But I don't ignore core mechanics that could win my team the game (especially if I am already on the chopping block, and killing a threat won't save me from that). I don't kill the player least likely to give me juicy double kill steaks.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.

[Long Con]

I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.

Either of them is SUPER likely to not consider the convoluted reasons why Wilgy was not the best kill.

[Long Con]

While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'd appreciate if anyone else could take a dedicated look at both motobot and Simon. I read both as civilians, but I acknowledge that I don't really have a great baseline for what either is supposed to look like as civilians (or for players that young in general). I will need some help if either of them is mafia.

Either of them is SUPER likely to not consider the convoluted reasons why Wilgy was not the best kill.

That's definitely true. They're not cleared on that front.

While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

Also true, though perhaps even this is overestimated (in terms of frequency). But it happens. People get framed. I have a sneaking suspicion I'm a patsy right now.

[LoRab]

What’s your thought on Lorab’s vote

I don't care for it. I was surprised that she agreed with my rationale when it squarely implicated her, and she submitted to the vote with no resistance. I'm not sure how to interpret that right now from the standpoint of a falcon/LoRab team theory, but it makes me suspect LoRab more on her own.

It was partly your logic, and mostly his reaction to it.

Yes, it implicates me, because I’m a low poster in this game, but I know I’m not bad, and so it’s likely one of the other quieter posters. I’d say it’s likely a newer player, because newer players don’t always know how to kill strategically in games in general.

[LoRab]

This post pinged my suspiciometer:

I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)

The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.

From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.

However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.

But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.

Too much reminding us that he’s inexperienced and mentions this in other posts, as well. It feels a lot like nope, not me, don’t kill the newbie. It just didn’t sit right with me.

[TonyStarkPrime]

tbh that's a good read

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I could see it.

I could see a lot of things these days.

I’d certainly like for Simon to answer that accusation.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I might be in one of those moods to toss my reads (apart from Wilgy kill reads) in the trash. It’s not like they’ve been any good so far. Falcon and LoRab, y’all might have a great view of what’s what. I’ll consider the Epi sons.

[Simon]

@Epignosis @Long Con

Can you both give me your thoughts on my thoughts regarding Jay?

@Simon could you give me a read list? Just what do you think each players alignment is and why

I have been thinking about it for awhile now, but It's been quite hard to get a good read on people. This is probably because I'm usually better at pointing things out and giving info, rather than being able to figuring out who could be Mafia.

If this is actually an important skill to have, then I understand, but so far, I've more so been taking more of a support role. I might just need further experience if I want said skill though.

[Simon]

This post pinged my suspiciometer:

I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)

The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.

From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.

However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.

But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.

Too much reminding us that he’s inexperienced and mentions this in other posts, as well. It feels a lot like nope, not me, don’t kill the newbie. It just didn’t sit right with me.

You wanted a reply from me, well here I am.

And yeah, the more I think about it after reading this post, the more annoying I sound in this regard. But on the other hand I was also stating that was still inexperienced for not knowing what kind of behavior I would see from different players, in which I would later figure out.

If you also want me to shut up about it, I will. There's no real point in rubbing it in, especially if people already know about this.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@Simon do you have any theories about why Scotty and DrWilgy were killed in the night phases?

[Epignosis]

Hey Simon, I didn't see you answer this question:

@Simon Why did your team kill Scotty?

[Epignosis]

Guessing I timed that rerun of a question poorly.

[Epignosis]

And so, since you are neither hot nor cold, I will spit you out of my mouth

Straight from the book of Revelation. Love it.

[Epignosis]

I didn’t backpedal my suspicion of Epi/moto when Epi responded. I moved on when I discovered better evidence. I doubt Epi makes a bad kill too. I am less sure than with Tony, but I doubt it. And I don’t really see moto as mafia without Epi.

I'd totally make a bad kill. Isn't there merit to that?

[Epignosis]

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.

[Epignosis]

Epi's a very good player but he's not typically as mechanically minded.

[TonyStarkPrime]

Epi's a very good player but he's not typically as mechanically minded.

sorry not sorry

[Epignosis]

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

I still loathe that reverse "white knight" treatment I was subjected to the other day.

I do not in the least think JJJ believed the Epi / moto theory.

There's so much backtracking it makes British bands of the 60s and 70s jealous.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.

At the very least they took Tony off the board and assured no double kill. Yes, they blundered.

The second line is silly.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

[VOTE: JJJ] aubergine

I still loathe that reverse "white knight" treatment I was subjected to the other day.

I do not in the least think JJJ believed the Epi / moto theory.

There's so much backtracking it makes British bands of the 60s and 70s jealous.

You could make that hyperbole more efficient by replacing it with some adverbs.

[Epignosis]

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.

At the very least they took Tony off the board and assured no double kill. Yes, they blundered.

The second line is silly.

Who are the blunderers then?

Make a list.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I'll be frank:

The mafia just blundered. It's our responsibility to avoid responding to a blunder with a new blunder. So if the civilians out there have doubts about this rationale, they need to voice them with a level head. I don't want to see generic "naw that's BS" responses followed by votes. Play good Chess now that we finally can.

Did they? You still don't have any clue who they are, right?

I think you're smart enough to know that you can clear yourself by "blundering" your own kill if you are mafia.

At the very least they took Tony off the board and assured no double kill. Yes, they blundered.

The second line is silly.

Who are the blunderers then?

Make a list.

I already did that.

[Epignosis]

Okay. I'm not caught up completely.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Who's most likely to miss this critical factor and make a bad mechanical kill?

falcon - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
LoRab - could be, has missed a ton
motobot - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
Simon - could be, new to mechanical problems like this
sig - maybe I guess, he's only kinda here
Long Con - less likely
Epignosis - less likely
Tony - almost certainly not

Starting here.

[Epignosis]

Oh, I read that.

I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).

[Epignosis]

Oh, I read that.

I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).

"Oh, I read that"

This means I saw that and forgot I saw that. This isn't related to the secondary comment.

[Epignosis]

I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.