Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Oh, I read that.

I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).

Maybe that's true in your case. But I am not making a mechanically suboptimal kill unless it provides some kind of clear and major psychological advantage. Killing Wilgy doesn't make me look any better, as evidenced by the current wagon. I'm not even sure the "gambit" approach would even occur to me as mafia, because I play the game straight. I pursue the advantage in front of me.

Anyway, if people aren't going to take this evidence seriously, then there's no reason for me to keep babbling about it. I'm glad this wasn't a mafia gambit, because good lord it sucked as a gambit. Absolute failure.

[Epignosis]

Oh, I read that.

I'm just saying I wouldn't mind playing the long game for credibility and I think you'd do something similar (and LC certainly wouldn't be opposed to that).

Maybe that's true in your case. But I am not making a mechanically suboptimal kill unless it provides some kind of clear and major psychological advantage. Killing Wilgy doesn't make me look any better, as evidenced by the current wagon. I'm not even sure the "gambit" approach would even occur to me as mafia, because I play the game straight. I pursue the advantage in front of me.

Anyway, if people aren't going to take this evidence seriously, then there's no reason for me to keep babbling about it. I'm glad this wasn't a mafia gambit, because good lord it sucked as a gambit. Absolute failure.

All right. I think that's a fair argument.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I had to guess a team of three right this instant...

falcon, LoRab, Simon

[Epignosis]

Sell me on LoRab.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Sell me on LoRab.

Confidence only moderate if that, but the bare bones:

- Fits the profile of someone that may make the Wilgy kill despite the mechanical problems
- Accepted my theory (and my civilianhood) without a moment's hesitation and voted falcon. I'm not sure that was a natural decision.

[Epignosis]

If I had to guess a team of three right this instant...

falcon, LoRab, Simon

Why a team of three?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

If I had to guess a team of three right this instant...

falcon, LoRab, Simon

Why a team of three?

Seems a safer assumption than a team of two, but two is possible.

[Epignosis]

If you buy Tony is independent, there's zero room for error on a team of three.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

True.

I'm fine with treating the day as a last resort even if it isn't.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I've love some standalone reads on falcon, LoRab, and Simon without regard for theory relating to Wilgy's death. If anyone could pop open those posts and say "this is suspicious" or "this is a civilian", that'd go a long way. I only barely care about my own behavioral judgments in this environment. This is not the kind of game I solve effectively.

[Epignosis]

13 players.

Three mafia is 10-3 ordinarily, which is not balanced and I think you know that.

You are buying that Tony is indie, which makes it 9-3-1.

I feel like YOU aren't thinking things through.

You could have even made a mistake as a killer. Right?

[Epignosis]

Excuse me:

I didn't mean to say "Three mafia is 10-3 ordinarily," but rather "Three mafia is 10-3."

[JaggedJimmyJay]

13 players.

Three mafia is 10-3 ordinarily, which is not balanced and I think you know that.

You are buying that Tony is indie, which makes it 9-3-1.

I feel like YOU aren't thinking things through.

You could have even made a mistake as a killer. Right?

10-3 games are very ordinary. I don't think it's terribly balanced either, but it's much more commonplace than 11-2 would be. (or 9-3-1 is more common than 10-2-1)

I have no idea what leetic views as balanced. I am also very much not saying anything about Tony's claim.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Clarification:

I don't think it's "terribly balanced" is bad wording. It is poorly balanced.

[Epignosis]

I will admit I need some rest. MLB Opening Day is tomorrow, and I've been very busy in that regard.

[Epignosis]

I am interested to see where @Simon and @motobot vote.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.

To be clear: most people won't.

In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.

I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

What did you have in mind when you posted this?

[Epignosis]

I suppose my hang up is the expectation that everyone is going to play "optimally" as mafia. I have hosted a ton and that just doesn't happen all the time.

To be clear: most people won't.

In this particular case, there is a core mechanic at work. Some people would miss it. I think some people would not. Tony would not. I know that I would not, but folks can take that or leave it.

I suspect you wouldn't miss it if you were mafia and had proper incentive to read and absorb all that stuff. But I don't have the same degree of confidence.

I do NOT have my head wrapped around this. Too busy.

[VOTE: LoRab] aubergine

[Epignosis]

My vote isn't final. I'll check in tomorrow and do it proper.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A lot of the candidates are more or less indiscriminable, and it makes every vote feel like a guess.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@TonyStarkPrime, your best guess at a team of two or three?

[TonyStarkPrime]

no

[TonyStarkPrime]

Lorab / Moto /epi

[TonyStarkPrime]

Only 3 person team I could buy I think, I guess maybe replace moto wirh simon and hard distance today

[Long Con]

While "I did that kill just so I could say why it wasn't me" is not as common as many sleuths would hope... "Let's kill that guy because it implicates someone easily" IS a common thing.

What did you have in mind when you posted this?

Someone killing Scotty to implicate you.

[Long Con]

I still think falcon is a hit, because of the blunderkill on Wilgy. I think falcon's focus on the game has been more "light touch" than "deep analysis", and therefore fits the bill on that one. Not saying falcon couldn't be quite aware of slightly more complex factors, but not this game. I should have read over his ISO before writing this, but I'm fine doing it after.

When I read his ISO a the end of Day 1, viewing it as "falcon is a Wolf'" struck me hard with suspicion for him. I looked at it again, trying to view it as "I think this guy is town", and I felt a little better, though there were some parts that I felt like I had to stretch my opinion to accept every post as Towny. Whereas the Wolfy read flowed very easily.

[VOTE: falcon] aubergine

[Long Con]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.

Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.

So, I don't care for falcon's hyperbole here.

[Long Con]

Looking over motobot's ISO, I think his early vote is Towny, and I think his JJJ progression across the whole Day is Towny. The changes in his opinion seem uncontrived.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I may not vote falcon in the end for reasons, but it’s frustratingly inconclusive.

[falcon45ca]

Yea I’m not really a fan of anyone on the falcon wagon.

Lorab is probably the only solid read one the three.

I think ONLY focusing on the Wilgy flip and mech is very very dangerous and scummy in fact the more I think about it the less I like people making those cases.

It just seems like a really easy way for mafia to redirect the convo and just boom boom boom through civs with a ready made excuse.

Especially since Jay is already setting this up in a way to target low hanging fruit.

Plus, and I’ll keep going back to this, scotty mentioned Jay, Jay was almost voted out and wasn’t, but his counter wagon didn’t flip mafia? I think if you ignore the mech or even just think about it a bit more Jay looks bad.


My tinfoil throw on is Epi/Jay are two mafia members since epi did help swing away from Jay.

If we have 3 I’d consider either Falcon/Simon

You can have generic suspicion of me. Fine. But I do think you bear a responsibility to explain why I would make the single worst mechanical kill on the board. Wilgy, at EOD, explicitly chose to vote for Abigail Sophia over voting for me. He was never in that BTSC. Ever. Killing him is just wrong.

If we're stuck in you killed him so you could say this today world, then we're blundering right back. That stuff never matters.

Of course Wilgy did heavily sus you, as did Scotty.

I don't think it's as cut and dry as you're trying to make it out to be

Taking Wilgy out removes a clear & present danger to Maf Jay, same with Scotty, and NKing outside the AS wagon isn't guaranteed to actually get the extra kill...in fact, since we're looking at lynching a player NOT on AS wagon, it's possible Town could lynch Shingen

This post has sent me ISOing twice now. First time, I was like "Did Scotty really heavily suspect JJJ?" It was not what I remembered, but reading Scotty's ISO showed me the progression from townread to scumlean. So yeah, Scotty suspected JJJ, but "heavily suspect" is an exaggeration when it was a Scum Lean at its lowest point.

Second time, I looked at Wilgy again. Wilgy suspected falcon MORE than JJJ, and tried to shift the vote to him. His suspicion of JJJ was entirely a gut feeling as far as I can tell, contrasting what his head was telling him. If Wilgy "heavily suspected" JJJ, then he would have easily just voted for him and put him in the lead at Day's end.

So, I don't care for falcon's hyperbole here.

Yeah Wilgy sussed me as well, and he also had Jay as SR. I recall Jay & I being his top SRs, or thereabouts.







I also recall Scotty having Jay near the top of his scum list. I did not ISO him, I went from memory






It makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC

[falcon45ca]

I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

This is what I'm talking about when I say you're milquetoast & the flavour of whomever is sitting at the table






I'm trying not to tunnel out of stubbornness as I have a habit of that, but this just reinforces my read on you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

This is what I'm talking about when I say you're milquetoast & the flavour of whomever is sitting at the table

My vote has been on either you or LoRab all day.

I don’t care.


I'm trying not to tunnel out of stubbornness as I have a habit of that, but this just reinforces my read on you

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I like that a lot, Long Con.

[VOTE: falcon45ca] aubergine

This is what I'm talking about when I say you're milquetoast & the flavour of whomever is sitting at the table

I'm trying not to tunnel out of stubbornness as I have a habit of that, but this just reinforces my read on you

My vote has been on either you or LoRab all day. I don’t care.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@falcon45ca please me a single read other than “Jay is mafia”.

[Long Con]

It makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC

It makes sense to me that Wolves think different thoughts and come to different decisions as the game evolves.

I do not agree with trying to frame these events as a connected master plan. You killed Scotty for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 1, and you killed Wilgy for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 2. Asking why you wouldn't shortcut the Wilgy kill to Night 1 doesn't make sense to me.

Furthermore, and I just want to get this right, are you implying that my idea of why you would choose those kills is "Scotty for TR you" and "Wilgy for SR you"?

[falcon45ca]

@falcon45ca please me a single read other than “Jay is mafia”.

Sure




moto & Simon both can be Maf. I don't think they both necessarily are, but really the only engagement I've noticed is responding to tags & quotes w/ answers that seem more about fulfilling the need to answer, rather than actually trying to solve & move the game forward




I think Epi is town? But really he's a hard read for me, I will say he's more involved than I normally associate w/ his scum game, ergo town for now





Long Con's approach strikes me as genuinely trying to solve, and his reads don't come across as throwaways, but rather the result of a logical process. I wouldn't look there til an F3




TSP there's just a je nais se quoi about his posting tone that just feels natural. I'd say the same is true of sig, tho I've not noticed him ITT as much





And I can't see a reason to TR Lorab






[VOTE: simon] aubergine

[falcon45ca]

It makes sense then to you that I kill Scotty for TR me, and then I kill Wilgy for SR me...why don't I just kill Wilgy N1? He was sus of me D1 IIRC

It makes sense to me that Wolves think different thoughts and come to different decisions as the game evolves.

I do not agree with trying to frame these events as a connected master plan. You killed Scotty for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 1, and you killed Wilgy for reasons that made the most sense to you during Night 2. Asking why you wouldn't shortcut the Wilgy kill to Night 1 doesn't make sense to me.

Furthermore, and I just want to get this right, are you implying that my idea of why you would choose those kills is "Scotty for TR you" and "Wilgy for SR you"?

No, I'm wondering what you'd think those motivations would be, as you're certainly speculating re: Wilgy. I figure you'd do it for both




Although! There is a player it does make sense from, and it rhymes with SchmaggedSchmimmySchmay

[falcon45ca]

@Simon Come tell me why you only seem to want to play when you're directly engaged

[Long Con]

Simon looks the worse of the two Epi-spawn.

[VOTE: simon] aubergine

[TonyStarkPrime]

losing motivation. I gotta play organ

[LoRab]

This post pinged my suspiciometer:

I just realized that one of the advantages that I have in this game so far,(and it's a big one for people like JJJ,)is the fact that I have zero history playing this, (without any help at least.)

The reason I used JJJ as an example is because from what I understand, his play style revolves around comparing people from past experiences, such as being Mafia from a previous game.

From what I understand, JJJ can't seem to get a good read on me. Because at first he was accusing and/or questioning me.

However since my most recent large post, (about JJJ throwing crap at people,) he suddenly started to suspect me less, which I don't understand. But if I wrote it well, then fine, ok sure.

But from recent replies, people were already likely to figure that out sooner or later, so again, I don't know how a single Post can change so much about wether you trust someone or not.

Too much reminding us that he’s inexperienced and mentions this in other posts, as well. It feels a lot like nope, not me, don’t kill the newbie. It just didn’t sit right with me.

You wanted a reply from me, well here I am.

And yeah, the more I think about it after reading this post, the more annoying I sound in this regard. But on the other hand I was also stating that was still inexperienced for not knowing what kind of behavior I would see from different players, in which I would later figure out.

If you also want me to shut up about it, I will. There's no real point in rubbing it in, especially if people already know about this.

not a matter of annoying. You’re not. It’s a matter of you looking bad.

[LoRab]

Changing my vote to Simon. Because I find him suspish. And also because self preservation.

Also, I’m civ.

[LoRab]

Gah.

Forgot to tag the vote.

[VOTE: Simon] aubergine

[Long Con]

No end time on this poll, but I believe it ends in just a hair under four hours.

[sig]

I should be able to be popping in and out for the rest of the phase.

Still at work (ew even though 6pm) but I’ll be around ish.

I see my Jay vote didn’t go anywhere, which sucks.
I’m still pretty sure he’s mafia, buuuuuut I’ll table it until we get closer to end game then y’all will listen to me :P


I’ll reread Falcon, I’m torn on him he doesn’t seem to be playing within his mafia meta and I did successfully call it out the last two games we played, but both of those games were more active generally.

Lorab. I only see her as mafia if we subscribe to Jays theory, which I don’t right now.Does anyone have insight on her mafia meta? I can’t remember it.

Simon I could see, but like there’s a risk in voting him off no?

I’m confident mafia is among the AS voters at least one.

I’m pretty sure Jay is Mafia.

That could leave TSP, LC, Falcon, lorab, and Simon

Moto is solid town for me.
Epi is solid town.

So 2-3 mafia in these.

Eeek I guess I’m fine with any of these options? I’ll need to try to catch up fully and maybe do some ISO

[sig]

No end time on this poll, but I believe it ends in just a hair under four hours.

10 pm I believe so yea

[sig]

@Epignosis thoughts on current mafia team/make up?

[sig]

If we believe TSP claim that would knock one off, I guess the question is do we believe it?

Falcon like I said seems to be more within his civ meta
Lorab hasn’t raised any red flags so far and is a town lean.

So I guess I’m at Simon, LC and Jay for my three?