Kagemusha (ENDGAME)

[sig]

sig being mafia would certainly explain why this game has been so miserable. I’d need someone to lay out a theory/case.

Mean

And even more mean is TS that doesn’t read apple emojis

[sig]

I’m also not a huge fan of the LC/lorab exchange

Why?

it seems fake to me

[sig]

@LoRab if you had to choose just two suspects to be the mafia team, who would they be?

At this exact moment? Falcon and epi.

But I’m not locked into either of those thoughts.

LC and Sig are my next tier.

And I don’t think you are bad, other than in my most tinfoil-y moments.

And tsp’s Indy claim, I’m willing to assume is legit.

See here’s my issue with Lorab post again she quite literally leaves everyone but the person who doesn’t count towards parity, if we believe that claim, as an option for today.

It just doesn’t seem like a solid civ thing to do at this point we should be trying to narrow down the pool not expand it

[sig]

And I’m practicing what I’m preaching here by reevaluating my Jay read so I’m allowed to say that

[sig]

@JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

It’s just uncertainty. I don’t know. There’s a pretty easy argument available to call every candidate in the [LoRab, Epi, falcon, LC] group mafia and to call them town. It is incredibly difficult for me to differentiate any of them and have any sustained confidence in it.

Even now I don’t think LoRab “looks” like mafia. She still easily could be. Once again I find myself more or less guessing.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don’t know why anyone would be confident that anyone else in that group is town. If I understood maybe I wouldn’t find this experience so excruciating.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Put another way: this game has been characterized by players contributing to the discussion predominantly when they’re under pressure — when they have something to answer for. Other than that it’s emotional neutrality or absence. That applies strongly to LoRab and Epi. It applied to our previous misses. It applies less but still somewhat to falcon. It doesn’t quite apply to Long Con, and deciding what that means is basically guessing.

This is not a normal Mafia game.

[sig]

@JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

It’s just uncertainty. I don’t know. There’s a pretty easy argument available to call every candidate in the [LoRab, Epi, falcon, LC] group mafia and to call them town. It is incredibly difficult for me to differentiate any of them and have any sustained confidence in it.

Even now I don’t think LoRab “looks” like mafia. She still easily could be. Once again I find myself more or less guessing.

Yea, I can tell

My Epi read is a mix of gut and prior stuff. His jokey tone strikes me as more townie and I do think his reads on the kids were genuine.

On the flip side he’s very accomplished as mafia, but I put alot of trust in him soooooo I’m sticking with town there I think.

Falcon/lorab, up to her most recent posts fell into the same category, maybe I’m tunneling a bit now, but I think her last few posts scream baddie more than Falcons post today.

Falcon also seems to be more active than his normal mafia meta, which is typically blendy, or at least it was when we were mafia together in scooby doo last summer. Most of this is meta and gut though since he hasn’t done much townie

LC is a hard read for me, but I think out of the remaining players he’s got the most teammate equity.

[sig]

Put another way: this game has been characterized by players contributing to the discussion predominantly when they’re under pressure — when they have something to answer for. Other than that it’s emotional neutrality or absence. That applies strongly to LoRab and Epi. It applied to our previous misses. It applies less but still somewhat to falcon. It doesn’t quite apply to Long Con, and deciding what that means is basically guessing.

This is not a normal Mafia game.

I’d agree here, the question is though is that more civ or mafia behavior

[sig]

Also one thing to note, which I wasn’t going to bring up this soon, but the convo is dead so I will, if we flip mafia today we need to ALSO hit mafia tomorrow phase or we loose.


So a bussing strategy isn’t out of the question, that adds an extra layer of toughness.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

You’re more confident than I am, sig. I may follow your lead today.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Also one thing to note, which I wasn’t going to bring up this soon, but the convo is dead so I will, if we flip mafia today we need to ALSO hit mafia tomorrow phase or we loose.


So a bussing strategy isn’t out of the question, that adds an extra layer of toughness.

Certainly true.

[LoRab]

@LoRab if you had to choose just two suspects to be the mafia team, who would they be?

At this exact moment? Falcon and epi.

But I’m not locked into either of those thoughts.

LC and Sig are my next tier.

And I don’t think you are bad, other than in my most tinfoil-y moments.

And tsp’s Indy claim, I’m willing to assume is legit.

See here’s my issue with Lorab post again she quite literally leaves everyone but the person who doesn’t count towards parity, if we believe that claim, as an option for today.

It just doesn’t seem like a solid civ thing to do at this point we should be trying to narrow down the pool not expand it

Seriously? It was a rainbow list in black and white. You are orange.

[sig]

You’re more confident than I am, sig. I may follow your lead today.

Okay, but if we loose it’s your fault for listening to me, not my fault for leading us astray

[LoRab]

@JaggedJimmyJay walk me through the epi evolution again?

You went from town, to convinced he was mafia, to town and fine with lorab, to thinking he’s mafia again?

It’s just uncertainty. I don’t know. There’s a pretty easy argument available to call every candidate in the [LoRab, Epi, falcon, LC] group mafia and to call them town. It is incredibly difficult for me to differentiate any of them and have any sustained confidence in it.

Even now I don’t think LoRab “looks” like mafia. She still easily could be. Once again I find myself more or less guessing.

Yea, I can tell

My Epi read is a mix of gut and prior stuff. His jokey tone strikes me as more townie and I do think his reads on the kids were genuine.

On the flip side he’s very accomplished as mafia, but I put alot of trust in him soooooo I’m sticking with town there I think.

Falcon/lorab, up to her most recent posts fell into the same category, maybe I’m tunneling a bit now, but I think her last few posts scream baddie more than Falcons post today.

Falcon also seems to be more active than his normal mafia meta, which is typically blendy, or at least it was when we were mafia together in scooby doo last summer. Most of this is meta and gut though since he hasn’t done much townie

LC is a hard read for me, but I think out of the remaining players he’s got the most teammate equity.

You are definitely tunneling. And you are entirely wrong about me. And it’s clear that you don’t know how to read me, or what I post like when I’m bad.

Also one thing to note, which I wasn’t going to bring up this soon, but the convo is dead so I will, if we flip mafia today we need to ALSO hit mafia tomorrow phase or we loose.


So a bussing strategy isn’t out of the question, that adds an extra layer of toughness.

If you lynch me, you won’t have to worry about that.

[LoRab]

Put my vote on epi for now, because he’s in my red section, because he’s the only other player with votes, and because I’m still holding out to being able to live another day.

[LoRab]

[VOTE: epi] aubergine

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.

[sig]

Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

[sig]

Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.

How so

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Epi and Long Con have had an unusual relationship in this game.

How so

From Long Con's direction -- "town core" this and "town core" that. Initially, he included Epi in that group, and then he briefly joined the Epi suspicion today (before moving to LoRab). Epi lamented being "kicked out", and Long Con's reply was pure chum.

From Epi's direction -- he has hurled 90 accusations at me in this game, so it makes sense that he'd open today with me as a suspect. But he also has repeatedly glued me to Long Con, for reasons mostly unstated, and it could be an effort to wrongly tie me to his teammate. Either I flip town and LC looks better (or the game ends), or LC flips mafia and I look worse.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I hope LC is town, because that is so wise.

I hope you wouldn't dare butter me up like that as a Wolf, especially after I stated my never-rescind Town read on you. I would not appreciate... the smugness of it.

Could easily flip back. I don’t actually trust anyone outside sig/Tony.

Stop being intentionally mean, you trust me.

I'm also sick of this manipulative crap.

[Long Con]

Then stop with the metronome trust level.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@falcon45ca please do something.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Then stop with the metronome trust level.

What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?

[LoRab]

Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

Can you literally not conceive of te thought that you are completely wrong about me?

[Long Con]

Then stop with the metronome trust level.

What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?

I saw nothing but "I'm not a wolf, I'm town." Nothing compelling enough to change my vote over.

[sig]

Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

Can you literally not conceive of te thought that you are completely wrong about me?

I could see it, you were more in the neutral camp until this phase I’d say, but even if I’m wrong about you I think falcons read on you makes him look good. Does that make sense?

[sig]

I’m comfortable cleaning TSP:

I think it’s clear he figured out who Moto was fairly quick and defended them in game. He could be third party, which would suck since he wouldn’t have a vested interest in town winning, but it’s too late to do anything about that

[LoRab]

Then stop with the metronome trust level.

What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?

I saw nothing but "I'm not a wolf, I'm town." Nothing compelling enough to change my vote over.

What else do you want me to say?

And I can twirl, if it gives me more of a chance to live. And, I’d really like to lynch an actual baddie.

[sig]

Clearing*

I guess I could clean him too, but I’d prefer not to

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Then stop with the metronome trust level.

What's your take on LoRab's most recent material?

I saw nothing but "I'm not a wolf, I'm town." Nothing compelling enough to change my vote over.

@LoRab how do you plea?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Disregard, you answered.

[sig]

@TonyStarkPrime where do you plan to vote today?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

What else do you want me to say?

And I can twirl, if it gives me more of a chance to live. And, I’d really like to lynch an actual baddie.

Can you point precisely to the behaviors of Epi and falcon that lead you to believe they're the most likely baddies?

[LoRab]

Okay I’m doing an iso read,

I likely won’t be pulling quote since doing this from mobile.

Staring with living players, maybe I’ll do another NKA after of Wilgy and scotty.

Falcon:

He’s been pretty consistent since D2 regarding his Jay read and it evolved into a more solid mafia read which he then channeled on.

He consistently read lorab as mafia which is a plus in being genuine and D1 he did cast a wide net.

The big negatives here? Post D1 falcon stopped providing as many reads focusing in on Jay, while he did continue to vote off Jay and engaged with Simon/Moto we saw less of it.

So while Falcons evolution does appear genuine he didn’t really engage all players which could be bad

Can you literally not conceive of te thought that you are completely wrong about me?

I could see it, you were more in the neutral camp until this phase I’d say, but even if I’m wrong about you I think falcons read on you makes him look good. Does that make sense?

Not really. But I think I get the idea. Maybe?

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I’m comfortable cleaning TSP:

I think it’s clear he figured out who Moto was fairly quick and defended them in game. He could be third party, which would suck since he wouldn’t have a vested interest in town winning, but it’s too late to do anything about that

He's probably indy. I don't see how he's town at this point, not after holding that claim. If he's mafia that was a bizarre and unnecessary claim, but I guess it worked out.

I may have some doubt about the "can only win with town" portion of his claim, just because that'd make his role seem redundant with Kagemusha's. But if he's indy it doesn't matter much.

[sig]

Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.

Would a mafia LC do this if Epi was his teammate?

[sig]

I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

Long con, when did you evolve from reading Jay as mafia to civ? Early D2 you were voting/suspicious of him so this was a quick flip

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.

Would a mafia LC do this if Epi was his teammate?

Dunno. It's the gambler's fallacy and is likely to be discarded by anyone.

[Long Con]

I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

Long con, when did you evolve from reading Jay as mafia to civ? Early D2 you were voting/suspicious of him so this was a quick flip

After I accused him of being a Wolf and saying I valued my pride more than being right.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Tony being indy would also resolve some of the setup confusion.

10-2-1 and 9-3-1 were both iffy.

9-2-1-1 is more standard.

[LoRab]

Four Epi-fam players and not one of them Wolf? Possible, but I don't believe in it.

Would a mafia LC do this if Epi was his teammate?

He most definitely would. But I’m very hesitant with LC and don’t really think he did.

[sig]

But abigail sophia is F R O Z E N.

She is not sure what to do under all this suspicion and has nothing to say. She doesn't even have a teammate in her family that she can bounce ideas off.

These are my thoughts. I don't know if they are good ones.

But abigail sophia is F R O Z E N.

She is not sure what to do under all this suspicion and has nothing to say. She doesn't even have a teammate in her family that she can bounce ideas off.

These are my thoughts. I don't know if they are good ones.

Certainly could be. She should try to Let It Go.

Ok, good enough for me. You are free.

[VOTE: Abigail sophia ] aubergine

These two posts in a row are a little weird? So are these three.

If we stick with Abigail voters then we can keep Shingen safer?

We went from this, to the below.

Simon looks the worse of the two Epi-spawn.

[VOTE: simon] aubergine

To then voting for Falcon, who also wasn’t an AS voter.

I'll move back to Simon though, because this level of participation will become a complication as the herd is thinned. [VOTE: Simon] aubergine

And finally to this.

Granted this didn’t end in Shigama being killed, but it drastically reduced the pool.


So while LC pointed out that Shigama wasn’t on AS, he seemed to have spent the bulk of the day voting for and advocating for voting off 2/4 of those said people.

[sig]

I would be completely satisfied with starting a town core of JJJ, Long Con, and Epignosis. If you guys want to take the risk together.

Long con, when did you evolve from reading Jay as mafia to civ? Early D2 you were voting/suspicious of him so this was a quick flip

After I accused him of being a Wolf and saying I valued my pride more than being right.

Yea I found that part

[sig]

I feel like these ISO are just making me more conflicted

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I feel like these ISO are just making me more conflicted

Welcome to hell.

[LoRab]

What else do you want me to say?

And I can twirl, if it gives me more of a chance to live. And, I’d really like to lynch an actual baddie.

Can you point precisely to the behaviors of Epi and falcon that lead you to believe they're the most likely baddies?

Honestly, it’s mostly POE and players I more strongly believe is not bad.

With Epi, it’s mostly tone. He just doesn’t sound civ…even really busy and distracted , based on how I read his posts generally. Also, his at least tacit suspicion of both AS and Simon.

With Falcon, it’s still back to your case about the baddies made a bad kill.which, yes, was a reason for you to suspect me, and, also made sense conceptually. And, more than that—and the piece of what I said that seems to keep being missed, that his response to your posts about it did not feel like civ defense. And, thus, made me more suspicious of him. (Keep in mind, I read all pieces of that at once, and not in real time. So, I had already read his defense when I posted about him.

And also posts like this:

[VOTE: lorab] aubergine @LoRab If you're town, come help us solve

Read too Hello Fellow Civvies for me to not find them

[JaggedJimmyJay]

@falcon45ca demonstrate that you care when you're not a wagon.