Biblical Mafia [ENDGAME]

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Who slew Samuel?

Poll ended at Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:35 pm

Bathsheba
0
No votes
Lot
0
No votes
Pilate
1
8%
Rahab
3
23%
The Witch of Endor (The Host, the Non, the Dead)
9
69%
 
Total votes: 13
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2251

Post by NurseWilgy »

Balaam wrote:
Absalom wrote:Why has no one answered my question about Balaam's voting pattern being directly adjacent to Ruth's? The silence on this subject is making me nervous.
I had a question on that actually. Thank you for reminding me.

You said I voted immediately after Ruth twice- Day 1 and Day 3. On Day 1, there were three votes separating Ruth's vote and my vote. Are you focusing on the fact that Ruth and I voted for the same person both of those days and I was the next vote for the same person she voted for after she voted that person?

For me, it seemed a little dishonest to frame it as me voting right after Ruth two out of the first three days. If what I laid out above is on your wavelength, I think it could be described better as Balaam matching Ruth's vote for the same person two out of three days. Even that isn't worded the best, but is that what you're trying to get at?
YOu're right, I screwed up day one. I was focused on the fact that you voted for the same person as Uzziah and Ruth. So the voting record looks like Uzziah, Ruth, Balaam.Saying "directly after" was an error on my part.

What I found more interesting is that on Day 3, 4 and 6. You and Ruth voted within four minutes of each other. And that she missed Day 2 and you missed Day 5, so the record is incomplete.
nutellaphant wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image

@NurseWilgy don't post any more k
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JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2252

Post by Snapshot »

A reread of Rahab. First, after this reread I have a very strong suspicion that I know who is manning this sock. I might even lodge my guess with the host :D

Rahab has kept her nose reasonably clean thread wise, and I actually think she is not heathen after a reread. In fact, I feel pretty good about her, she has been fairly consistent, and if my read of who is behind the sock is right, she sounds like this person in their civ capacity. But her post history gives enough to think her alignment is ambiguous so it's worth posting about.

Her day 1 vote for Uzziah came quite late. After that we got this in chapter 2:
Rahab wrote:I voted Uzziah Day 1 because I thought his behavior was weird. Not much of a sound reason, and since then he's been more on topic. I see the reasoning of others that because he said "I'm rooting for the scum" (which I took it to mean "I'm cheering for the scum") he might want to brag about it post-game if he IS actually scum for shits and giggles, but I think it's more likely he was just making a joke. Too much WIFOM for my taste right now, so I won't go that way again today.
(Also, I'd point out that the very post before this one was me pointing out that the Samson votes look like a save on Uzziah and voting for Uzziah on day 2. I still feel very confident about this and it's why I still think we need to be looking in the Day one Samson train, we haven't caught a baddie in there yet. It's still Isaac and Jacob for me, they both look so bad, it's really time we took one of them out.)

Then Rahab during chapter 3:
Rahab wrote:I've been flip-flopping about Uzziah since the beginning, but if he's who I think he is under that sock I always feel this way about him one way or the other. There's no way to tell, so my gut about this behavior along with someone's mention of how conversation about him and his own commentary have fallen off today make me want to look his way again. (To be honest I also laughed out loud at his and Job's exchange about voting until one of them is dead. I love this game.) Also, I read Bathsheba's posts after much mentioning of her (and maybe this is completely off topic but I've seen a few references to her as a "him," which threw me off :P ), and some of her participation reminds me of Uzziah's (especially laughing at being called "the blendiest blender" with no other defense except she "noticed" who made the comment), while the rest of it just looks like blendy play, as she was criticized for. At this point I will likely be voting one of them today.

Ah and now Uzziah is back in the conversation (being talked about that is). I have some work to do but I'll be back in a bit for the vote and perhaps conversation, real time.
Rahab wrote:
Jonathan wrote:After giving more though to a Uzziah vote again today I have decided to wait and give that another day or two to develop. He has been silent today (at least I didn't see anything from him) but I don't know if he is laying low or legitimately silenced. I have chosen to go with Lazarus today for the reasons that Mordecai and Balaam brought up today. One thing that does concern me is that maybe he has been silenced but I'm going to take the risk in his case.
Uzziah is not silenced. He commented on his vote two (real-time) days ago in response to Job's voting for him in Uzziah's same jokey manner. He hasn't spoken since. I'm gonna go ahead and vote for him for reasons previously stated.
Her vote for Uzz was Uzz's fourth vote when Mary Mag only had 5, and her post (above) could be considered in Balaam's lingo 'a push', since she also disregarded his silence. On the other hand, the vote straight after hers was Ruth for Mary Mag, so it might have been a good distancing tactic so late in the day.

Essentially, having done the full read back, my mind just comes back to Isaac and Jacob and that day one save of Uzziah.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2253

Post by Snapshot »

Absalom, I have not answered your question about Balaam and Ruth having similar patterns because I've made it very clear that you are barking up the wrong tree and that Balaam is definitively not Ruth's teammate.

There really isn't anything more for me to say on the matter, except I'd far rather lynch a heathen than waste time every day talking about someone I can confirm is a civ (and yes, it honestly has been every day. Yesterday it was Mordecai. It bothers me tremendously that the thread keeps coming back to Balaam.)
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2254

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Absalom wrote:YOu're right, I screwed up day one. I was focused on the fact that you voted for the same person as Uzziah and Ruth. So the voting record looks like Uzziah, Ruth, Balaam.Saying "directly after" was an error on my part.

What I found more interesting is that on Day 3, 4 and 6. You and Ruth voted within four minutes of each other. And that she missed Day 2 and you missed Day 5, so the record is incomplete.
Wow, I haven't been marking down the time of player votes but that is pretty freaky. I also didn't even notice that she and I were voting pretty close to each other. I see where your data might lead you to believe that Ruth and I were teammates who conferred late in the lynch period and cast a mini-block of baddie votes. All I can say is that it is a weird coincidence.

I think that my Day 6 vote actually works in my defense though. When I voted, it was 5 votes for Ruth, 4 votes for Rachel, 3 votes for Absalom, 2 votes for Jacob, and 2 votes for Pilate. Logic suggests that a baddie would want to vote for their teammate in this situation for the civvie cred. It's easy to assume that a Ruth lynch was a foregone conclusion since the final three votes coming in after me were also for Ruth.

But what would have happened with those final three votes had I voted for Rachel and tied it up? According to my notes, Belshazzar would have certainly voted for Ruth. Samuel comes in right at the deadline with this:
Samuel wrote:i realize I am not contributing here, I'm really very sorry and if you all choose to eventually lynch me because of it, that is entirely understandable, but I am voting for Ruth as it seems the right place for a vote today based on what little I know.
and then Bathsheba comes in less than a minute later with this:
Bathsheba wrote:Yeah that doesn't seem right. Going with Ruth.
She never comes back to explain what doesn't seem right.

Now at that point, both of them are basically bandwagoning on the leader. I had only voted five minutes prior and my comments and part of the discussion regarding the possibility that Lazarus was Simon the Zealot were on the same page, which may have been the only page those two final votes glossed over. They may well have just voted for the Ruth after Belshazzar if the Lazarus theory still been going on. Had I voted Rachel though, and not been so blunt about the possibility of Laz being Simon, would it have been as clear to them that Ruth was bad news?

I guess you have to look at it one of two ways:

1) The timing of votes points to me being a Heathen who conversed with voted in close proximity to a teammate.

2) Lot's vouching, my data dumping and crunching, my vote for Ruth, and my brazen openness to speculate about Laz being Simon in the thread and expressing concern that Ruth was trying to take advantage of that points to me being not Heathen.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2255

Post by Young Lady »

I also applaud Balaam's worst light angle in his walkthrough, although its downside I see is that, on one hand, it might attract a few very plain "Player X looks the worst, get him!" reasoning or even votes come tomorrow and, on the other hand, it got us mixed results in the past. Not that I'm denying that such readings, in the worst light, usually motivate the reasoning behind voting to lynch a player. But think of Jonathan, whose votes were accountable enough for a lynch, or think of Jacob, whose role hint is still making some of us hesitate completely, despite how awful his votes and such would make him look.

I'll start my re-reads in a bit, but they are to be expected in batches as well, because I'm almost certain I'll not manage them in one sit...afternoon...d-day?

Absalom, have you had a chance to re-read Pilate?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2256

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

LAZARUS:
D1: Missed the vote (design or accident- frees him from being on a civ train)
D2: 14th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (Cain is obviously going down so he vote-spreads to avoid any kickback from the Cain train)
D3: 19th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (votes late-ish in the cycle for Absalom again- avoids the Mary train and starts setting about potential future roleclaim as Simon- also helps him avoid being part of any trains)
D4: 5th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (further enhances roleclaim cred though not really noticed yet)
D5: 13th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (avoids voting for a teammate while maintaining consistency for future Simon claim)
D6: 11th vote overall, 2nd vote for Absalom (avoids voting for a teammate while still maintaining potential to claim Simon)
D7: 12th vote overall, 5th vote for Jephthah (with his Simon lie busted, he abandons Absalom so he isn't found out to be a fraud- joins a bad-looking bandwagon instead- helps set up renewed vigor against Jonathan for the next day)
D8: 14th vote overall, 2nd vote for Lazarus (self votes to throw off vote analysis)



LOT:
D1: 23rd vote overall, 2nd vote for Jephthah (total softball vote late-ish for neither train- typical vote-spread)
D2: 9th vote overall, 2nd vote for Uzz (with enough momentum swinging Cain's way, it's a reasonably safe vote for his own teammate- cred grab)
D3: 3rd vote overall, 1st vote for Rachel (flip-flop from D2- today votes to start a train on Rachel to protect teammate Uzz)
D4: Misses vote (intended to mess with vote analysis- keeps him off any trains)
D5: 8th vote overall, 2nd vote for Jephthah (tries to turn Jeph suspicion into a rival train to save teammate Uzz)
D6: 5th vote overall, 3rd vote for Ruth (votes early for teammate to mess with future vote analysis)
D7: 8th vote overall, 1st vote for Jephthah (leads the Jeph train to lynch a civ and setup civ Jonathan for revenge lynch next day)
D8: 1st vote overall, 1st vote for Lazarus (claiming cursed to avoid further vote analysis)



MALCHUS:
D1: 17th vote overall, 2nd vote for Absalom (mid-cycle vote-spread)
D2: 8th vote overall, 5th vote for Cain (places a mid-cycle vote on the bandwagon to look misguided)
D3: Misses vote (messing with vote analysis)
D4: Misses vote (doesn't even post- posturing like cursed/kidnapped)
D5: Misses vote (doesn't even post- now just messing with us)
D6: Misses vote (doesn't even post- getting deeper inside our heads)
D7: Misses vote (totally Inceptioning us)
D8: Misses vote (all hail Lord Malchus!- kneel and obey)



MORDECAI:
D1: 9th vote overall, 1st vote for Samson (puts a vote to the suspicion of Samson and adds new reasons to be sus of him- helps derail pressure on Uzziah well enough for his teammates to add to the Cain train late in the cycle)
D2: Misses vote (legit miss or sitting back and watching civs kill civs)
D3: 6th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (votes on weak sus of Laz in an attempt to draw people from Uzz- also helping to spread options early)
D4: 11th vote overall, 1st vote for Lazarus (consistency ploy by voting Laz despit the Job v. Balaam discussion raging)
D5: 17th vote overall, 9th vote for Uzziah (totally safe, late cycle vote for his teammate who is obviously going down- cred grab)
D6: 9th vote overall, 3rd vote for Rachel (attempt to pile on Rachel to make it a tight race and force other players to waffle on their votes- also may help make Rebecca look bad if/when Mordecai is caught)
D7: 16th vote overall, 1st vote for Balaam (meaningless late-cycle vote meant to have no impact whatsoever)
D8: 7th vote overall, 1st vote for Balaam (mid-cycle vote for consistency ploy and to help set up renewed suspicion of Balaam)
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2257

Post by NurseWilgy »

Belshazzar wrote: Absalom, have you had a chance to re-read Pilate?
Yes. The only remotely odd thing there is thta he seemed to know a bit too much about my foul humour.

Why are you so interested in Pilate? I told you, he is unimpeachable.
nutellaphant wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image

@NurseWilgy don't post any more k
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JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2258

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Belshazzar wrote:I also applaud Balaam's worst light angle in his walkthrough, although its downside I see is that, on one hand, it might attract a few very plain "Player X looks the worst, get him!" reasoning or even votes come tomorrow and, on the other hand, it got us mixed results in the past. Not that I'm denying that such readings, in the worst light, usually motivate the reasoning behind voting to lynch a player. But think of Jonathan, whose votes were accountable enough for a lynch, or think of Jacob, whose role hint is still making some of us hesitate completely, despite how awful his votes and such would make him look.

I'll start my re-reads in a bit, but they are to be expected in batches as well, because I'm almost certain I'll not manage them in one sit...afternoon...d-day?

Absalom, have you had a chance to re-read Pilate?
And anyone taking one of these tin foil recaps as gospel instead of discussing the 3 or 4 most suspicious looking players will be on my radar for sure. This exercise is being done in the first 24 hours of the cycle to facilitate discussion in the second 24 hours of the cycle. I am going to a few extremes on these recaps. Some fall apart pretty easily while others hold up. I want to see who thinks which ones hold up and see if they can add anything else to the cases to normalize them from the tin foil hat fringe.

After this lynch, we start this process all over again and incorporate whatever knowledge we gain into the data.

I still struggle to see Jacob's role hint. I thought I saw something but it was vague and I no longer think I saw what you seem to see. Can you point me in the right direction or at least clue me into where it's at- (like first half or second half of the game or a 3-day group- not asking to go all "Laz could be Simon" just yet).
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2259

Post by Young Lady »

Absalom wrote:
Belshazzar wrote: Absalom, have you had a chance to re-read Pilate?
Yes. The only remotely odd thing there is thta he seemed to know a bit too much about my foul humour.

Why are you so interested in Pilate? I told you, he is unimpeachable.
That's a bit of a loop question. Why am I interested in Pilate, you ask, since you find him unimpeachable, but I asked why do you find him unimpeachable, since I personally am intrigued by his behaviour.

But I guess I find him more suspicious of posts and attitude than you do.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2260

Post by Young Lady »

Balaam wrote:
I still struggle to see Jacob's role hint. I thought I saw something but it was vague and I no longer think I saw what you seem to see. Can you point me in the right direction or at least clue me into where it's at- (like first half or second half of the game or a 3-day group- not asking to go all "Laz could be Simon" just yet).
After Uzziah's lynch, methinks. :shrug: I really can't see anything else prior to that (there's little in post count as well, anyway).
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2261

Post by Snapshot »

I agree with Absalom that Pilate looks unimpeachable. I can't see him being heathen.

I'm going to do a reread of Isaac today, and pull some posts like I did with Rahab, but I'm becoming more and more convinced he is the best place for a vote...

I'm also going to have one more look for Jacob's famous rolehint.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2262

Post by Snapshot »

OK, I just spent probably half an hour doing nothing but reading the same Jacob posts over and over and over again, and really, I just don't see it.

I mean, I see him saying multiple times that he is claiming his role increases our chances of winning. Is that all we are talking about? Or is there more to it that I'm missing. Because, I don't see that as a role hint. It's just a generic claim.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2263

Post by Joe Who? »

I'm back!
Lot wrote:A reread of Rahab. First, after this reread I have a very strong suspicion that I know who is manning this sock. I might even lodge my guess with the host :D
I'll be interested to see if you're right :biggrin:

Why is Pilate "unimpeachable"? I feel like I've caught up reasonably and this is quite a bold claim. I didn't see a major analysis of him or anything that would make him able to take this title, but perhaps I missed something? His behavior still suggests otherwise to me, but has something new come to light? The only thing I see in Absalom's analysis is that his Day 1 vote for Uzziah was "ballsy" for mafia, but that wouldn't make him "unimpeachable." I'm up for being enlightened.

Also, I don't know what's up with the danged role-hinting, role-claiming, slip-up nonsense that's been happening here lately. What is Isaac going for? Maybe nothing. Maybe it's a real civ slip-up. But he takes some heat, and suddenly he "accidentally" says he has a vanilla role? I don't like it at all.

Linki - That's all I saw with Jacob, too, but I still don't like the fact that it's being used as a defense.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2264

Post by Snapshot »

@Rahab - Pilate's day one and day 5 vote and his posts in respect of Uzziah make it very unlikely that he could be mafia, it would be beyond ballsy, I think it would have to be an actual intention to distance by getting your teammate lynched. It just doesn't seem likely that he is heathen at all. If Pilate could be heathen, then so could literally anyone including Absalom, and the argument would be that their lynch leading was tactical. I guess it isn't impossible, but it wouldn't be my first choice for pursuing someone.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2265

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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2266

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

PILATE:
D1: 4th vote overall, 1st vote for Uzziah (distancing move by voting for his teammate after Uzziah's vague-ish admission)
D2: Missed the vote (legit or designed to throw us off)
D3: Missed the vote (avoiding any connection to civvie trains- we're starting to expect little of him)
D4: 1st vote overall, 1st vote for Rachel (latches onto Belshazz's suspicion of Rachel's hypocrisy to cast a throwaway vote on a civ)
D5: 1st vote overall, 1st vote for Uzziah (With no Balaam option for an easy civ train, comes out hard against Uzziah, acting on his supposed suspicion of him the last few days, also accuses Uzz of trying to frame him- plan backfired when others decide it's time for Uzz to die)
D6: 4th vote overall, 1st vote for Absalom (falls back on accusing Absalom of leading a train on Cain in a failed attempt to save Ruth and/or throw suspicion on Absalom)
D7: 3rd vote overall, 2nd vote for Jonathan (votes early in the cycle to start a Jacob v. Jonathan train duel for the day- Jacob train never takes off when the Jeph train comes out of nowhere)
D8: 2nd vote overall, 1st vote for Jonathan (consistency ploy and helping oil the tracks for an easy civ lynch)



RAHAB:
D1: 28th vote overall, 3rd vote for Uzziah (late cycle vote for her teammate Uzz who is not in danger- cred grab)
D2: 10th vote overall, 6th vote for Cain (votes to keep Cain well in the lead of her teammate Uzz)
D3: 20th vote overall, 4th vote for Uzziah (late cycle vote for her teammate whose fate is not totally certain- ballsy cred grab)
D4: 14th vote overall, 2nd vote for Lazarus (voting to stay out of the main trains of the day- vote-spread)
D5: 14th vote overall, 7th vote for Uzziah (late-ish cycle vote for her teammate whose fate is pretty well certain- cred grab)
D6: 10th vote overall, 2nd vote for Pilate (mid-cycle vote-spread to cast doubt on Pilate and to spread options around to possibly save Ruth)
D7: 7th vote overall, 2nd vote for Pilate (consistency ploy to push suspicion of Pilate)
D8: 6th vote overall, 1st vote for Jacob (vote for Jacob for cred from those more sus of Jacob than Jonathan)



REBECCA:
D1: 16th vote overall, 1st vote for Jephthah (mid-cycle vote spread to keep her hands clean)
D2: 13th vote overall, 1st vote for Jephthah (late cycle vote for consistency and to keep her hands clean)
D3: 10th vote overall, 1st vote for Mary (casts the first vote for Mary to break damn open on her and save her teammate Uzz)
D4: 7th vote overall, 3rd vote for Balaam (votes to spur on more Job and Balaam votes)
D5: 2nd vote overall, 1st vote for Jephthah (votes to start a rival train to protect her teammate Uzz)
D6: 8th vote overall, 2nd vote for Rachel (votes to make a Rachel train look possible to save her teammate Ruth)
D7: 9th vote overall, 2nd vote for Jephthah (votes for the silly civ train that will ensure another civ dies the next day)
D8: Missed the vote (keeps her hands clean for the day)



SAMUEL:
D1: 21st vote overall, 7th vote for Samson (votes to put Samson away for a D1 civ lynch)
D2: Missed the vote (skips the vote and makes a "shame on me" post)
D3: Missed the vote (skips again to rub appearance of low participation in our noses)
D4: 10th vote overall, 5th vote for Job (votes for the easy civ train)
D5: 10th vote overall, 3rd vote for Jephthah (votes to try and keep someone close in votes to his teammate Uzziah)
D6: 19th vote overall, 8th vote for Ruth (late cycle vote for his teammate for cred and to offset his vote to save Uzz D5)
D7: 11th vote overall, 4th vote for Jephthah (hops on board an easy civ lynch that will get Jonathan sussers riled up to vote him the next day)
D8: 15th vote overall, 10th vote for Jonathan (jumps on the Jonathan train after everyone else does the work)



STEPHEN:
D1: 7th vote overall, 1st vote for Barnabas (self-admitted random vote- throws off vote analysis)
D2: 11th vote overall, 1st vote for Stephen (self-votes for further vote analysis chaos)
D3: Missed the vote (skips a vote to royally screw over any vote analysis)
D4: 8th vote overall, 3rd vote for Job (votes to keep Balaam & Job tied to add to the frenzy)
D5: 3rd vote overall, 2nd vote for Uzziah (ballsy early vote for a teammate- cred grab)
D6: 3rd vote overall, 2nd vote for Ruth (ballsy early vote for a teammate- going for double cred)
D7: 6th vote overall, 3rd vote for Jonathan (votes on what he thinks is going to be a Jonathan train)
D8: 3rd vote overall, 2nd vote for Jonathan (remains consistent by voting Jon again)
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2267

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Now, which of my recaps seem the most far-fetched?

Which ones do you find believable?

Who would you like to talk more about?

Let's talk people! :)
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER VI]

#2268

Post by Snapshot »

Balaam, I love that you do them. I've been too focussed on my Isaac reread (half way through a big post on that) but I'm looking forward to reading your stuff as my next step.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2269

Post by Young Lady »

Oh God. Only three players re-read so far and I can actively feel my brain begging me to quit what I'm doing. And Mafia altogether. It seems I've clearly taken the wrong angle, in terms of processing the material, but what can I do.

Okay, for all these reads, I started working following Absalom's and Balaam's own lists, so I have those vote stats and possible "bad" angles fully in mind, but you'll have to correlate them yourselves, if you have such power of synthesis, because I don't wish to create a clusterfuck of an 18-player-analysed-by-three-people joint list. This will be dense enough as it is.

Absalom
I'm reading Absalom mostly fine. He was not shy himself to call his hunting consistent and his better record than most: two lynched Heathens and two bad mislynches. I'm looking at a different angle for Day 1 Heathens activity (them spreading or piling on Samson, whilst Uzziah and Ruth built a separate Cain wagon), so it would take, idk, Deborah flipping bad or something like that to make me reconsider that they all actually went for Cain and Absalom in it.

Since on Day 3 the Mary wagon didn't even start prior to his vote on Uzziah (which made him by then a reasonable lynch candidate) - plus only he and Rahab are still alive, from those who actively pursued Uzziah, whilst Job is confirmed civ and Nicodemus was NKd - and on Day 5 he added an early vote to a growing Uzziah lynch, it's hard to find anything wrong with those votes.

I can't tell why he was blind to Ruth until Day 6, but actually the thing that really makes him look good to me is his Ruth case itself, because I can't imagine him being teammates with her and Uzziah and proceeding, first thing Day 6, with full hunting intent, to set her up for a lynch. Idk, overall I think it would take an incredible amount of subtle distancing and then cruel bussing for him to be involved with both of them.

Again, consistent hunting overall - meaning no signs of fluff, waffle, flipping, hesitating. Maybe just curious that his case on Balaam vanished after his talk with Lot on Night 4, but it's nothing to account him for at this point.

Balaam
Disclaimer: this will be a very messy read. I spent an hour on it. An hour. In fact, I think I'll just throw in the raw daily data I wrote whilst reading, but even these are messy, so sorry about all this, but I literally have no idea how to synthesize him. In theory, the results show him vulnerable to interpretations and suspicions of Heathenship. Lot's complete vouch for him notwithstanding (for which I can see one or two possible civ theories, whilst the opposite theory is highly predictable, depending on how either of them would flip), I can agree with Balaam about his Ruth vote; I do not find it that it was a 100% critical moment for Ruth in order for the teammates to throw her under the bus, and Balaam ultimately worked towards a potential Absalom save and a proper Ruth lynch.

Day 1: not really the most perfect day, with mixed content (low of suspicions, high on debating) and a vote post in which several sentences can come off wrong; distances completely from Samson train; again, Heathens mostly piling on Cain (which would mean Deborah, Balaam and/or Absalom) is not my primary Day 1 angle and it would be indeed pretty ballsy from Balaam to be the third of their kind to do the same, late in the day, with so little backup for his action
Day 2: very dense day of posting, complete with lists and full scenarios regarding specific quarrels between two players; not the most consistent path towards voting Cain again, but overall finds his absence suspicious and thinks Day 1 was a Cain save in motion (...I think); assesses Uzziah vs. Job, but without conclusions; chats with Ruth on issues that now read total fluff
Day 3: dense posting again, without a clear and consistent hunting dynamic. Takes the Mary path in suspecting her bandwagoning and deeming it lynchable. Is not sure about voting her (too similar to Samson's lynch), but ultimately would rather lynch her than find out which side will Uzziah flip. Reads Uzziah neutral, surmising he's either baddie smokescreen or will turn out civ casualty like Samson and Cain. Questions Ruth on her silence contradiction, nothing else.
Day 4: "my head a splode" level of content density and variety. I can't fully make sense of his variation on the Job case - from wanting to test his and Uzziah's obstinacy by trial of lynch, having theories on Job's civvieness, partially disagreeing with Rachel's arguments, then, after having to deal with banter with Absalom and suspicions on him, returning to vote Job. Nothing on Uzziah except in context with Job or simply laughing his ass off at one of his stupid ruse. Nothing on Ruth except repeating the same question for her.
Day 5: "courteous" refraining from voting, because of being in constant re-read throughout the Day. either my brain has stopped being able to filter at this point, or I don't see notable mentions towards Uzziah and Ruth
Day 6: Day of Reads, Tehnicolor Lists and suspicions. Mostly has other in mind than Ruth (interestingly, if Uzziah would have been lynched Day 3, it would have caught Balaam offside during both Heathen lynches by openly stating that he reads them neutral), but then considers going along, plus the whole thing gets aggravated by the Lazarus effect, so in the end he contributes significantly to Ruth clinching the lynch.
Day 7: again, not an blessed day for him to end up switching from other suspicions to Jeph
Day 8: Easy path back towards suspecting Jonathan and Jacob. I don't think I can actually find his vote post in which he decides to go with Jonathan (and mind you, his vote for him was among the first batch)

Bathsheba
I believe Bathsheba would have been a decent suspect during the first few Chapters, given her posts. But the momentum has completely gone ever since she went AWOL. She's a "what if" inactive player category, at best. In fact, you'd say that right now she's more likely a candidate for "hunger" (if such a night demise will ever reoccur) or divine judgement or such. Second to Malchus, if such classification even matters. If she's civ, the Heathens probably have little reason themselves to spend a night taking out a player like her, since they've been doing brazen kills almost at every oportunity. Can she really be our inactive Heathen, whose sudden return on Day 6, to push Ruth deeper into a certain lynch, actually points to a scenario in which Ruth realized she's doomed and sent Bathsheba to gain cred? I'm open to the idea, but why would it be a better tactic, in that case, rather that Bathsheba remaining silent, just like she has five out of the last six freaking days?

Belshazzar
heh, 'tis I. :grin: I think I'll just link back to what I've said upon Absalom's read of me. It is not a complete shock to come off again as a grave mislyncher (I've often been this way in previous game, as well), but I do still regret all the bad outcomes thus far. If players will feel I need to be lynched, I think Day 6 is as good a voucher for me not being Heathen as it is for Balaam, plus I firmly believe to have never actively defended either Uzziah or Ruth (the way such theoretically damning statements have been made by others).
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2270

Post by Snapshot »

What have I seen from an Isaac reread.

1) One thing I will say, and I've felt this all along, is that Isaac reads well. His posts have a very civilian tone to them. There is also nothing in most of these posts that could not be read as a civilian demonstrating a perfectly valid perspective. Noting that up front, I've made a conscious effort to ignore tone and consider potential intent when analysing Isaac's posts.

2) Isaac 1.0 was around for day one and day two. He never mentioned Uzziah at all. He once quoted Ruth but it was not a very meaningful exchange. He also didn't add any real content other than a suspicion of Samson. Perhaps the most interesting quote was this one:
Isaac wrote:I think Belshazzar is generally right. If we spend all game worrying about the Horsemen, the Heathens will roll over us while we bicker. Easier to deal with what we know to be a threat, then sort out anything else. I can't see them being civ-friendly though.
That would be an odd thing for a heathen to say on day one.

3) It is worth noting that Isaac was the third vote on Samson when Uzziah was in the (previous) equal lead on 2 votes. Isaac quickly voted for Samson, then explained why afterwards. I think it's interesting to note the order and timing of these two posts. The first one came over an hour before the second, and NEITHER of Samson's posts that Isaac quoted had been made at the time Isaac voted. This almost looks like reverse engineering to justify the vote. At the time of his vote, Isaac's entire justification was 'he hasn't explained his vote'. That explanation isn't a terrible one, though, as far as day one pings go.
Jacob wrote:Voting for Samson because he hasn't explained his vote.
Isaac wrote:
Samson wrote:As usual, the Syndicate votes for oddities instead of baddies.

Carry on.
Samson wrote:I don't think that that Samuel is bad, I just wanted to vote for him.
How do you expect these two posts to add up to any kind of defense? Latching on to someone else's vote with no explanation isn't an 'oddity', it's something that makes you look like a baddie. Then you say you don't even think the guy is bad?
4) Isaac 2.0 turns up on day 3 and very quickly comes in with this. It could be considered fairly direct for a teammate.
Isaac wrote:I saw nothing wrong Uzi's posts.
5) Over the next couple of days, Isaac consistently defends Uzi and also has a tendency to bring up Ruth without sharing an actual view on her - this is a list of these...
Isaac wrote:I did not realize how flippant Job was with his accusations. He throws out quite a few names and then pursues none of them, as Paul states, but then is relentless in trying to take down Uzziah. Who, imo, is least likely to turn up heathen at this point.
Isaac wrote:Also, what are your thoughts on Ruth and Bathsheba? I haven't seen many of Ruth's posts but have noticed her name pop up here and there.
And I'm asking about Bathsheba for obvious reasons. Host post and what not.
Isaac wrote:As for Uzziah's comment: Why would a Heathen say they were cheering for the baddies in a game this big? I don't think anyone is that ballzy. Secondly: I don't know if it's been clarified yet but I personally read it as searching for the baddies. C: If he really was saying cheering for the scum, maybe he just has a thing for Jezebel.
Isaac wrote:Going to respond to the hot topics of Balaam's fabulous list.
Balaam wrote:RUTH: I'm reserving judgement until she finally answers my question. Was she just silenced Day 2 or was she blocked from voting as well?
Same.

UZZIAH: Neutral. I still think he's just messing with us one way or the other. Good or bad, Heathens are probably hoping to use him as a smokescreen.
I realize I'm kind of defending right now. But this could definitely change depending on future circumstances
Sorry to piggy back a Balaam list in order to get my opinions out there. It was the quickest and easiest way for me to do so with today's schedule.
Isaac wrote:The difference is that Uzziah's focus on Job is revenge, for lack of a better term.
(That's up to date until the end of the Job lynch).

6) Also amongst that, Isaac has this very interesting post full of wifom. Not sure why Isaac of everyone in the game felt the need to make an 'if I incur God's wrath' post, but it does seem like a convenient civilian cred grab. Especially, especially, especially the last line. Isaac is now claiming to be a vanilla civ, and if smited his role wouldn't be revealed anyway. I can't imagine a scenario in which a civilian rezzer would feel the need to rez Isaac ahead of Mary Magdalene. Even he admits its 'easy to say for street cred'. I don't know what to do with this post at all. I'm not averse to making a post like this if it looks like I could be lynched, but... I mean, do we go around making these posts in case we are NKed? Weird.
Isaac wrote:Juuust in case I incur God's wrath, I'm going to throw these out there:
Still feel really good about my Job vote, although I'd to see him come back in and say something other than "UZZIAH *votes*"
I do think Lazarus is worth investigating further, and will do so assuming I survive.
Still don't see what Lot sees against Rachel, although they clearly share a concurring opinion against Absalom. I'd like to see this back-and-forth progress further to help develop my opinion on them.

And finally, should I be the one smited, I will just say that I would sooner have David (Mary M) resurrected than myself. I know, easy to say for street cred. But do with it what you will. Isaac out. :beer:
7) On Day 5, Isaac floats the idea that someone vocal is bad and that we should look at vocal people, then spends the rest of the day focussed on... Pilate and Malchus. He really mentions a desire to make a Pilate vote several times. In respect of Uzziah, here is what he has to say during this day period.
Isaac wrote:Belsh, to answer your question re Uzzi. I have felt completely in the dark here. I started out kind of defending him, but now ijdk. :shrug:

Also, Pilate's latest post feels like a major gambit. The wifom is strong with this one. hooooooo purhhhhhhh.
Isaac wrote:This is not at all going the way I thought it would. I still don't feel great about a Uzziah lynch. I haven't from the (my) beginning. I'm going to go with the one person I am remotely comfortable with voting (who already has votes. Jep
Isaac wrote:
Rachel wrote:I feel like the biggest fool, Job. :(
Same :faint: I never saw that coming...
It's sort of a step away from defending him, saying he doesn't know what to think, but still votes in a way that is most effective for his defence and then says he never saw his lynch being bad coming, which is a bit at odds from not knowing what to think. To be clear, here is my own description of the state of voting when Isaac voted on day 5: "Day five - fourth vote for Jephthah, 7 on Uzz (possibly only 6 when he looked)."

~~~~~~~~~~

This is now the first time Isaac takes heat all game, so I'll split this analysis into two posts representing the two halves of his game and take a break here.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2271

Post by Snapshot »

Well at least we are a lot of triers, eh? Look at us all and our rereading!
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2272

Post by Snapshot »

So, Isaac part 2 - after taking heat.

1) Isaac describes himself as super flip-floppy. Honestly, if there is any one thing that my read of him up to this point has taught me, it's that he has stuck to his guns more than anyone except maybe Absalom and Stephen. He hasn't seemed very flip-floppy at all.

2) Anyway, Isaac's response to being suspected is very interesting indeed. He goes from this view of myself and Balaam:
Isaac wrote:FYI Lot, I am feeling better about you now. This is primarily due to how Job flipped. I had initially read you both in the same fashion. Since I was clearly wrong about Job, there's a high probability that I'm wrong about you.

Other people that I feel good about and likely will not vote anytime soon:
Rachel
Absalom
Balaam
Isaac :noble:
To this:
Isaac wrote:Thanks, Balaam, for making realize just how useless I've been this game :P I know I've been super flip-floppy (I'm about to do it again, for crying out loud!) and unsure of my votes and reads on people. I haven't been as invested in this game as I'd like to be.

After reading Jeph's post (I think it was Jeph), I realize I may have been played. I trusted Rachel fully from the beginning, and now she turns around and says I tried to get her lynched because of my wording and based on my vote patterns? You slyyy devil, you. I don't care if I'm lynched today. If I am, it will certainly help the cause. But when I am lynched I really hope that people analyze yours and Lot's voting patterns until you're on the chopping block. It took no time at all for you 2 to put me there.
By the way, I'd say it's more accurate that Rachel and Lot put Isaac there, but that could just be a perception thing. Anyway, he was certainly ready to get the threat out... 'If I flip civ, do you want everyone to go after you next?' - thats how it read at the time and still reads to me, and attempt to scare us into being more careful. Followed by this stuff:
Isaac wrote:Sure. You're absolutely right, Lot. Go ahead and vote for me. You've got nothing to lose, right? You're 110% correct :mafia:
Isaac wrote:Well now I wish I could switch my vote to help you out. I'm perfectly fine with dying today :)
Isaac wrote:What gambit? I would love to play. I would love even more to prove you wrong, my friend. That would give me more satisfaction than winning. So bring it on ;)
This didn't sit well with me at the time, and it still doesn't. The whole thing was a major overreaction to me saying his voting looked bad... as though it guarenteed I'd vote for him (even though he was only one person I'd called out), but the approach makes it seems like he wants to warn me off it. Which actually worked, by the way. The worst bit of it of all is where he says "You've got nothing to lose, right?" - because honestly, if you are vanilla civ, I don't think it makes much sense to say that. Because obviously civilians are something to lose, but apart from the obvious what would I have to lose?

Isaac did dial it back after that... but if the goal was to stop me going hard and to get me (and others) to dial it back, it worked. Here we are three days later and still Isaac has barely taken a vote, if any.

3) Isaac didn't mention Ruth once on day 6, as far as I can see. Not in any context at all.

4) Day 7 feels like Isaac is comfortable to not be taking heat, to me. He posts casual, uses a lot of smilies - a very good day for someone who is happy just to see that the heat is not on him any more without a lot of actual contribution.

5) Day 8, time for Isaac's rolehint:
Isaac wrote:I'm telling you, though, I'm just a vanilla who's made A TON of mistakes with my shit playing this game. I'm with Jul... I mean Jonathan ;) No more sock games for me. Way to easy for me to mess up in my reads of others.
Isaac wrote:I call myself vanilla because there is absolutely nothing next to my role on that page.
My only slip up is forgetting to search for other apostles :blush:
Lets me very clear - there is no room there to consider this to be accidental.

6) This is where I come to the idea that any other apostles who can target Isaac should do so, because him being activated would give his rolehint some credence. Now, firstly, I don't know what Isaac expected would happen if he rolehinted vanilla (what, apostles WOULDN'T target you???) But second, he was very inconsistent in his responses to me. See this:
Isaac wrote:If I am "activated" tonight, I have a target on my head. I'm a walking dead man if that happens either way you look at it.
Isaac understood my theory of activating him completely in this post. We even talk about it some more as follows:
Lot wrote:You are a walking target right now. An activated civ tonight somewhat fixes that. I'm not sure why you would argue against your activation... unless, in fact, you would prefer civs don't target you so that no-one knows you are lying?

After all, why would you be a walking target any more than those people who Absalom is clearing based on their vote records? I think there are quite a lot of people who I can confidently call 'not heathen' right now. You would just be one more on the list.
Isaac wrote:Because I will be confirmed. Then civs would have no reason to lynch me. And heathens would have no reason to let me live.
Isaac wrote:I also wasn't trying to be specific. That's where it gets dangerous. We're getting into the specifics of my role if I am activated, and the heathens will most certainly kill me before end game, if not immediately.
Let me repeat - these posts prove that Isaac fully understood my proposed plan to activate him and was concerned that this would make him a target.

7) But not everyone understood them. Others thought I was suggesting we lynched him if he wasn't NKed. When Jacob didn't get it though, Isaac posted this:
Isaac wrote:
Lot wrote:
Jacob wrote: If we give the ultimatum "if he's not NKed let's lynch him" then duh obviously the baddies aren't going to NK him so they can get a free pass out of a lynch.
Why do people keep saying this since it is patently not what I or anyone else actually suggested....

I suggested that any disciples searching for another disciple to activate, target Isaac. When did this get bastardized into the heathen killing him?
I read it this way last night, as well. If that's not what you intended (making me a human sacrifice), then I apologize for misconstruing things. That would be why our convo got a little out of hand. I felt as if your whole intention was to get me killed one way or another just to be absolutely sure about me.
That's one massive back out of the situation.

8) Not to mention his whole legitimate response to my idea (to activate him) was immediately followed by him trying desperately to plead against activation. The whole thing reads to me like he didn't think it through when he said he was vanilla, forgot that we actually could test it, and then wanted to set up a wifom argument of 'I wasn't targetted because I pleaded with people not to'.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2273

Post by Snapshot »

@Belshazzar. Your post has made good reading so far. I think you are right to point out that your vote and Balaam's vote on Absalom day somewhat clear your names. HOWEVER...

If Lazarus is Nebuchudnezzar (or is on team baddie) then the baddies would know that his vote didn't have a hecks hope of saving Ruth, but they could certainly use it as an opportunity to gain civ cred for some of their teammates. So I don't think that vote alone clears you. It relies on your belief that Lazarus is a zealot being genuine.

Still, I think what you've said is quite valuable and I'm looking forward to the rest. On to Balaam's question of which of his explanations for vote patterns seems most unlikely.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2274

Post by NurseWilgy »

Belshazzar wrote:Maybe just curious that his case on Balaam vanished after his talk with Lot on Night 4, but it's nothing to account him for at this point.
Despite Lot's vouching, I am still not fully sold on Balaam. What do you make of the vote timing analysis I posted with him and Ruth? Coincidence?

I have to admit, I find it very troubling.

That being said, I think Mordecai is my top suspect today based on all the analysis that has been done.
nutellaphant wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image

@NurseWilgy don't post any more k
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JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2275

Post by Young Lady »

Deborah
Not a fan of her and growingly immune to her repeated late-minute showing up and apologetic posts/votes/whatnot (however truly affected her RL time for playing is, sorry, but that's how I feel). So I don't get genuine civ vibes out of such "laments", but neither is the rest fully incriminating. Reading back, her catch-up effort from Day 5 should have been the kind of re-read from which to built further interpretation, not just establish basic civ/bad reads and such and leave it at that, so maybe that's an attempt to improve her image that can be interpreted both ways. I'm really considering Balaam's Day 6 bad projection of her vote. To an extent, I can see her consistent voting for Cain during the first two Days as the type of voting for an unhelpful player that civs often do. Day 3, I dislike her "foolish bandwagoning following" (the way Balaam put it) more than the implication of protecting Uzziah or something (which doesn't show up much in writing). From there on, it can be anything. Those who actively suspect Deborah could maybe refresh the arguments, so I can fully figure how I feel about it.

Esther
One mislynch, one baddie lynch and a consistent two-day hunt (Pilate). Wasn't a fan of her at the beginning (missing days and votes, but claiming to be observant in the shadows), but then she actually started delivering on her claim, even if much later on. Bit of flipping from lynching Uzziah to lynching Job on Day 4, but then I can rather read her Uzziah vote as civ-like (finishing the job once... oh wait, damn, pun not intended...once Job proved the bad choice).

Looking good ever since, I agree. Solid case on Pilate. Her input on Jonathan had enough interpretation and offered some angles in case he would flip bad, even if it proved wrong. As for the votes Day 6-8, I can't read much into them at this point. I'm not looking into her Day 6 vote as much as others, because Lazarus didn't vote yet, so spreading votes would have been a worse attempt to save Ruth than, for instance, pushing for Rachel to be lynched, in case of a normal tally. Think that's pretty much it, so far.

Isaac
Jacob
Think the sheer stats on both pretty much still stand. (I + J) (J2) I'm not sure if I intend to defend Isaac's claim. I'll read carefully Lot's input that he just wrote. Jacob's claim, meanwhile, puts me in an awkward position, especially after my vote post yesterday. To suddenly flip on my stance and vote Jacob would probably not make me look good. But since only Jeph believed the same hint as I did and is now dead, for everyone else to distrust his claim and wish to pursue lynching him, whilst I stick to believing his claim that he's
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made you look :p
, that would look weird as hell, too. A metaphorical catch-22. I really have to (re)consider all of this.

I could probably stretch it a bit more till bedtime with a few more players, but my guess is I probably won't manage.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2276

Post by Marmot »

Belshazzar wrote:
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made you look :p
:haha:
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2277

Post by Young Lady »

Absalom wrote:
Belshazzar wrote:Maybe just curious that his case on Balaam vanished after his talk with Lot on Night 4, but it's nothing to account him for at this point.
Despite Lot's vouching, I am still not fully sold on Balaam. What do you make of the vote timing analysis I posted with him and Ruth? Coincidence?

I have to admit, I find it very troubling.

That being said, I think Mordecai is my top suspect today based on all the analysis that has been done.
I can sort of acknowledge Balaam as a late end of day voter (this referring specifically to the deadline proximity, because sometimes he still shows up early in the tally), although sometimes his vote posts didn't have the best presentation: "let's cement this for Mary", "screw it, Jeph". If he's civ, then it's mostly coincidental, because Ruth in exchange did probably often delay her vote. If they're teammates, there's a slight chance the in-thread outspoken Balaam is a in-BTSC strategist, assessing the situation closely before finally voting.

Day 1 I don't buy much, because there's actual space between them and, as I've said, it'd be pretty mad for 3 out of 5 (at least) Heathens to have piled on Cain.

Day 3 awkward indeed. Ruth was proven guilty of deliberately waiting to push Mary to 6 when Uzziah received a fourth. Whether Balaam literally proceeded the do the same or simply responded to the wagon, I don't know. I'd put it down as pingy. Maybe he can re-read the sequence of events from that Day and tell us what made him wait so much / decide so hard.

Day 4 can be interpreted the same way. Balaam maybe pressured by being 2nd wagon, but Ruth certainly not making it easy by deciding just a few minutes later.

Day 6 I really don't buy, because Ruth voting Absalom, in acknowledgment that it could save her skin, clearly triggered Balaam to do something about it.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2278

Post by Jack Shephard »

@Lot - you're probably skimming over my "hints" because they weren't really hints in the traditional sense so much as repeatedly bringing up stuff related to my role, sort of in hopes that some people would notice I kept mentioning it. I was trying to be really subtle, and I guess I was :p
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2279

Post by Snapshot »

Ironically, perhaps part of why I trust your hint more is because I can't find it.

Anyway, I read one more time and did find something. So maybe I now have an idea. It's not a role I would have called critical to the towns success, and not one that I can see any basis on which to determine it MUST be alive, but I can see how it actively assists and how you may have hinted at it.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2280

Post by Snapshot »

It's a funny thing Jacob...

Here is Isaac
Here is Jacob

Isaac and Jacob both have terrible vote records
Isaac and Jacob both role hinted.

But I really believe Isaac is bad. And I really want to trust Jacob is good. That feels right and correct to me.

I hope people read what I've posted on Isaac, particularly the last part.

Also, I'll remind people of this, which I posted on day two...
Lot wrote:I've looked back at the voting record, and...

Actually, it was Uzziah who was up to two votes when all the Samson votes suddenly started coming in, not Cain. Possibly Samson was a save on Uzziah.

I dunno, I'm not going to vote for the guy who seems silenced at this stage. I don't personally feel comfortable with that. Later in the game, when there is more of a body of work? Sure. But it's awfully convenient at this point that the guy with the second most votes is MIA - both if he is bad, but also if he isn't bad.

I'm going to vote Uzziah. The case on him is good too, he is actually talking, and considering I felt the Samson votes felt like a save, and I've looked back at the voting pattern... if they were a save, they were a save on Uzziah.

Uzziah
I somehow forgot this in getting suspicious of Job and lots of other things going down. I forgot I'd ever posted it. It's so long ago and in some ways felt like water under the bridge. I found it when I was doing my Isaac reread.

I voted Uzz back here because I said I thought the Samson votes were a save. I still believe I'm right. We haven't found a single baddie in the Samson train yet. They have to be there. Samson voters are:

Mordecai (11), Mary Magdalene (12), Isaac (16), Jacob (17), Jonathan (20), Belshazzar (23), Samuel (24)

I'd be amazed if we haven't got at least two baddies in here.

Mordecai
Isaac
Jacob
Belshazzar
Samuel

I understand if people go Mordecai (you could call him the push), but I really strongly believe Isaac is your best bet for a first vote. He is the pivot.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2281

Post by Nicol Bolas »

What are "push" and "pivot"?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2282

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Pilate wrote:What are "push" and "pivot"?
They're terms I came up with pertaining to spotting baddies through vote analysis. Here's where I mentioned them before. It was a few days ago...
Balaam wrote:First, a few thoughts:

I agree with Jeph that Lot may be analyzing the votes in the wrong way. Much as re-reading an individual's posts out of context of everything else, analyzing peoples' votes out of context is probably not a good idea either. There are three things to look for every day: The Plant, The Push, and The Pivot.

The Plant is when a person is first brought up as suspicious. This could be done innocently or nefariously. It's at least useful to know when a person was planted as a suspect because that helps us look for The Push.

The Push is when others start to glom onto or build on a suspicion for one reason or another. Sometimes it happens right away and sometimes it happens a day or two later. This is where a suspect starts to pick up steam and people start voting that way because it seems like a lot of people are talking about them. The Push influences the low posters and those who chime in (or appear to chime in) last-minute looking for something on the last page to vote for.

The Pivot is where momentum seems to shift from one player to another in the thread or in the poll. The Pivot is not always carried out by a baddie but they're usually pretty close on either side of it, if not the fulcrum.

The Push is not an isolated event. There are usually pushes before and after the Pivot on days when only a few suspects are being seriously considered. We've had a few of those.

What we need to do is go back and look for Plants, Pushes, and Pivots in each stoning period. We're still going to have to speculate on baddies trailing in at the end but the three P's help us find those who are stirring up a bad case, voting after said puffery, and those who try to plant names for the next day.

The next thing I'm going to do is post my notes on every player left in the game, plus one or two dead ones if I think there's something interesting there. Rather than dump a crazy amount on you guys all at once, I'm going to do my notes on each player in a separate post. After that, I'll post my own take on vote analysis. Hopefully between my notes and the vote analysis we can find those three P's and sniff out some baddies.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2283

Post by Rachel Green »

Belsh, Balaam, Lot, I appreciate your most recent analyses. I have just skimmed them as of now but will fully read it all by the end of today in time for the lynch. I still think Pilate is bad as I have stated a case on him before. I will read him individually again as well and see if there is anything to add.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2284

Post by Young Lady »

Jonah
The opposite of Esther's evolution, shall we say? I mean, what happened? He had a good activity in the beginning, with a bit of moxy and different perspectives on why some players' posts might be read as "scummy". His first votes were unconventional and almost standalone, after which the next ones (Job, Jeph, Jonathan) veer more towards wagoning.

Extreme civ cred theory? Intentional drop under the radar as to, maybe, not get NKd for being so outspoken. Or genuine demoralization, as he stated on Day 5.
Extreme bad tactic theory? Intentional fishing during the first days, only to let others become leaders and develop a more hidden, inactive profile.
(Total batshit paranoia theory? Isaac has told us long ago he's 2.0. It has been infered that Stephen and Esther might have clearly been replaced. The Host has announced no such changes throughout the game. Maybe there's a "switcheroo" that occured between low and active players, so that inactive players became more involved and other drop off the face of the earth?)
For either of the first two theories, Jonah's inactivity would still be way too much for him to have consistently tailored an intentional tactic, so idk.

Not the cleanest vote record either, often going spontaneously for his last suspicion (Mary, Rahab) and leaving others behind (Martha, Balaam, Deborah). Never took a stance on Uzziah (being unsure what to make of it), plus left an awfully jokey post in awe to Uzziah's troll abilities, but also came up with the "feud" theory between Job and Uzziah. That being said, he chose the case on Job over the one on Balaam, Day 4, at a time when the two were even. A flip on Balaam, at any point, could make Jonah look better or worse, in this regard.

I'm not reading that much into his Mary and Rahab votes being spreading, because they're so distant from serious nominations at that time. His Day 5 vote for Jeph (whilst throwing his hands in the air re: Uzziah) is so last-minute, it could be nothing. His Day 8 Jonathan vote is probably pure wagoning, he didn't even post about it.

Lazarus
Until a solid theory is formed on Lazarus actually having messed with us all this time and being bad, I'm going to keep considering him the best candidate for Simon there is. I'm still not seeing what Lot is suggesting (plus I wrote that the stats are pretty much against the idea that Simon is dead and the baddies are role claiming him), but I've been known to need to read his thoughts a second time, so I'm open to discussion.

I'm not going to deny that I don't "have an idea" about Lazarus' identity and given that, I'd usually expect him to be a great reader even if he doesn't sweat much to play, but given his read was Absalom, it unfortunately does not compute for me (see my read on Absalom). Also, when he's not vanilla or close in a game, he is usually bad at being subtle at using his power, which further strengthens my belief that he's Simon and that's that.

Other than Absalom (for whom all his votes until the Day 6 debacle were singular), he really hasn't done shit otherwise and I don't think it can't be interpreted much.

Lot
has...posted an awful lot. :grin: I apologise for this, but I want to save him for a bit later, just in case I'll need to spend as much time filtering his posts as I did with Balaam yesterday.

Malchus
Dead alive. Same feelings as regarding Bathsheba - any momentum to read or challenge his activity is sort of long gone. Deborah read him bad during her re-read Day 5, but that's about it (and honestly, she can still look a bit worse for going with a vote for him instead of voting "meta-man" Uzziah and joining that wagon). Always treated Uzziah as WIFOM and picked Cain as worse over Uzziah, but his Day 1 vote isn't part of an obvious anti-Uzziah possible wagon and his vote for Cain, Day 2, was already way inside the lynch train.

Meta read: the faintest memory of a inactive baddie that I have, from previous games, was that he was eventually replaced halfway through the game, either at the Host's or the Mafia's desire to not risk ending up dead and with all their hopes resting on someone not present. Is Malchus really our Inactive Baddie? Who the hell knows.

Mordecai
Day 1: scrutiny of Paul's actions, but also suspicious of Samson and ends up voting for him (first of in the ensuing lynch). Day 2, calls hunt for Uzziah both a cop out but also something he doesn't disagree with (just that it offers room for complacency). Nevertheless, argues significantly with Job instead over this. Come Day 3, he's already wary of Job tunneling, but as far as I notice, didn't take it further.

Two consecutive votes for Lazarus, for his own tunneling of Absalom. His Day 3 one the first of three, whilst Uzziah and Rachel (and soon Job) had already two votes; he never really touched upon these players. His Day 4 is amidst an intense Job vs. Balaam train, in which he again has no part in.
No serious content Day 5 expect his vote post for Uzziah, a late vote that solidifies his lynch. Upon being questioned by Jeph, states that he voted Uzziah in retaliation to Job's flip. His statement that Uzziah would have been a sure lynch (=highly likely lynch) every day raises some eyebrows and rightly so, because it was neither the case quite every single day (except for Day 3), nor did he state this before with conviction.

Day 6, he works on a "voting together" angle of reading the vote records, signaling Deborah, Malchus and Rachel. Votes Rachel of the three, but, conspicuously or not, his vote now stands as bringing Rachel at 3-4 versus Ruth.

Day 7, odd angle theory at whether Absalom would look intentionally civ given Ruth's vote for him. Also builds up his Balaam theory, but presents it only Day 8. Regarding this, some points either don't stand out for me as much as for him or Balaam sounded genuine in defending against them (for instance, #2 and #3, if anyone has followed their exchange), but interestingly enough, he does connect him with Ruth in the timing of the votes, just like Lot noticed.

Hmm, I was sort of expecting to have a stronger read on him. The votes that could be accounted as the worst would be (in order) Day 6 (possible push for Rachel to save Ruth), Day 1 (Samson train, whilst his teammates jumped on Cain's instead) and maybe Day 3. I can't lock his Day 5 vote as bad, but if he is a Heathen, then the deed was long done on sacrificing Uzziah.

From the votes themselves, turning Ruth's lynch into that angle to suspect Absalom seems to me to go against the very nature of Ruth's intent when voting for Absalom (him to die instead of her), so maybe it was an intentionally forced perspective offered to the thread? Is this what others are picking up on as well? Besides that, his Day 3 Lazarus pick and his statement that Uzziah was always highly lyncheable don't match up in attitude, especially for the day that Uzziah could have been lynched. But again, I was hoping for a stronger bad read of him than such circumstantial ideas. I'm open to keeping him in check.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2285

Post by Young Lady »

Pilate
Undeniably dubious gameplay at times (his self-aware meta, his jump on my Rachel case, his two-day pedal on her only to confess it was phoning and his throw of Absalom in the same boat as Uzziah and pedalling on it some more). But I'm starting to see the "unimpeachable" angle slightly better upon re-reading him: his gunning for Uzziah was very consistent. Otherwise, whilst not a man of many words, his reads were often intriguing and kinda solid. He did his part in lynching Uzziah on Day 5, meanwhile he missed Day 3, so we can't really say if he would have stuck with Rachel or stay consistent with voting Uzziah. If, by any stretch of the imagination, Absalom will eventually flip bad, then they did a fine job washing each others hands. Not the strongest candidate there is, methinks.

Rahab
Chose Uzziah over Samson Day 1, put in theory that some Heathens could have boarded Samson's lynch right after. Went with Cain Day 2, mislynch. Acknowledged going back and forth on Uzziah and decided to stick with lynching him - this makes her and Absalom's vote look civvie-like that day (alongside the late Job and Nicodemus) imo.

Day 4 a possible twitch vote for Lazarus' attitude, otherwise she would have had to choose between Balaam and Job - I'll keep in mind she found Job suspicious and Balaam less so, just in case Balaam's flip will count in the future, but it's nothing serious.

Didn't add much else on Uzziah Day 5, but it seems like she went along with the lynch and it doesn't contradict her earlier stances. Consistently suspicious of Pilate and Jacob since, voting for them accordingly until this day. Think it's up to her how she'll further develop her suspicions.

Generally aggressive and questioning on her own about various players and situations. I like. I think she's on the level. Nothing in her vote record stands out to me.

Rebecca
Day 1 focused on reading Paul's behaviour. Picked Jeph as a main suspicion and vote during the first two Days. Since Jeph wasn't exactly the most benign of suspects, it is vulnerable to interpretation that she may have not wanted any part in the main wagons. Nothing on Samson, no clear stance on Cain, nothing on Uzziah.

Day 3, suddenly drops even the slightest analytical reading and jumps on my case on Mary, effectively starting her lynch train. Ouch. No vote post whatsoever on voting Balaam Day 4. One post Day 5, going back to Jeph, early lynch vote for him (1-1 vs Uzziah). I feel the Jeph 2nd wagon was sort of slow to build that Day, so I don't have that much to read here, but it could still be a comfortable distancing vote.

Damning dismissal of Ruth bussing Uzziah, casts a Rachel vote for no reason, also says right after "Now 3 more there would be swell, k?". Is that 3 more for Rachel, to make it 5-4 vs. Ruth? Ayyy.

Defensive vote for Jeph Day 7. Defends what I just said about her Day 6 awful looking stance as misinterpreting and that in fact she saw "Ruth on Day 5 pushing for a choice between Jeph and Uzz", under the logic that both of them are bad and threatened to go down. Otherwise, it's a really bad angle and still doesn't connect well with suspecting and voting Rachel. She [Rahab] would only have her belief that Jeph is bad in her defense, but if she's actually Heathen, such a belief can clearly have been manufactured.

So yeah, it looks pretty bad. If Rebecca is Heathen, her vote record isn't even tough or out-of-the-box to interpret as such. (Sorry we didn't listen to you, Jeph)

Samuel
Day 1: early time spent defending himself in front of Paul, but also picked up Ruth's meta hunt as suspicious (which, turns out, wasn't a bad ping). His vote for Samson can be both payback and wagoning.

Upon return Day 4, his reasoning for voting Job as an anti-Absalom is a well-known mess of a reasoning. Hunts Day 5 Jeph and votes him as payback for contradicting himself in his reasonings as much as Samuel did.

Clinches Day 6 Ruth lynch with his vote. As you already know, I don't endorse the Ruth being bussed theory, so not much to say here. Mislynches Jeph and Jonathan the next two days.

Nothing about Uzziah the entire game. Nothing about Ruth between his Day 1 ping and Day 6 swift late vote.

I think we should overall keep him in mind. The vote record could be overall interpreted as bad - it's almost like Day 6 is the only thing that would take the heat off him a bit. But if I would actually revise that sequence of events, it could also be that Ruth voted Absalom, under the belief he is doomed by Lazarus, some of her teammates already spread the votes thin or voted for Rachel, then Balaam and I punished her move and she went "welp, save yourself Sammy" (the same could be true for Bathsheba, but obviously that's even more of a stretch).

Stephen
AWOL first three days, random-self-missed vote sequence, survives his house exploding. Stephen 2.0 afterwards? (He denies this later) Phoenix Stephen?

Hectic Day 4 activity, complete with banter and such, develops mostly a Job suspicion, sides with Rachel on it, doesn't like Jeph and Ruth for going against it. Mislynch. Not much on Uzziah, except that Job flipping bad could possibly exonerate him and that he doesn't truly believe in their feud curse. Keeps suspicions on Jeph and Ruth Day 5, then changes his mind on the former and votes Uzziah. His vote stands early in the tally. His Ruth vote is also early. Two votes for Jonathan, simply by siding with Absalom's case, the following Days.

The timing and the spot-on-ness of his votes for Uzziah and Ruth make it hard for him to seem a cruel teammate that influenced their fates early on. Ok, Uzziah may have been doomed and planned as such, but Ruth? Not really seeing it. Since I read Absalom fine for now, I don't have reasons to suspect they schemed lynching Jonathan for two days. I don't see any defending of Rebecca, in order for his Day 7 vote (which momentarily put Jonathan in front of Rebecca, 3-2), to be read as a save attempt (not to mention the Jeph lynch train didn't even start). He gets a pass from me, although I wish he'd return to his Day 4 form and write more content rather than picking up the opinion of others.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2286

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Okay, going to try something a little different with my technicolor vote recaps. Here's a link to the original format. Lot raised a good point I had been pondering as I looked at my data the other night. We've lynched 2 of 5 people who voted for Cain (40%) and only 2 of 7 people who voted or Samson (28.6%). Yet the Samson train has quite a few voters who fall into a gray area in terms of reads. I don't remember (but hopefully someone can look it up) if Mary's and Jonathan's vote for Samson was in any way a factor in their stonings. If not, it's almost like we've largely forgotten about that ill-fated Samson train.

Here are my technicolor recaps for each day split apart by each vote train. Maybe it will be an easier way to look at it than what I've been doing. Do you see anything suspicious when the data is presented this way?

Balaam wrote:DAY 1 RESULTS:

9. SAMSON (Mordecai)
10. SAMSON (Mary Mag)
<---voter = civvie
14. SAMSON (Isaac)
15. SAMSON (Jacob)

18. SAMSON (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
20. SAMSON (Belshazzar)
21. SAMSON (Samuel)



12. CAIN (Deborah)
13. CAIN (Absalom)

22. CAIN (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
25. CAIN (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
29. CAIN (Balaam)


4. UZZIAH (Pilate)
8. UZZIAH (Job) <---voter = civvie
28. UZZIAH (Rahab)


1. SAMUEL (Paul)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
2. SAMUEL (Samson)<---voter = civvie


6. PAUL (Martha)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
24. PAUL (Nicodemus)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens


11. ABSALOM (Cain)<---voter = civvie
17. ABSALOM (Malchus)


16. JEPHTHA (Rebecca)
23. JEPHTHAH (Lot)


19. MARY MAG (Jonah)
27. MARY MAG (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie

3. LOT (Gideon)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens

5. REBECCA (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens

7. BARNABAS (Stephen)

26. GIDEON (Hagar)<---voter was the civvie smited after our first 3 civ stonings


Not Voting:
Barnabas
Bathsheba
Esther
Judah<---voter was the civvie smote after our second 3 civ stonings
Lazarus
Balaam wrote:Day 2 Results:

4. CAIN (Paul)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
5. CAIN (Absalom)
6. CAIN (Belshazzar)
7. CAIN (Deborah)
8. CAIN (Malchus)

10. CAIN (Rahab)
12. CAIN (Balaam)
16. CAIN (Bathsheba)


2. UZZIAH (Job)<---voter = civvie
9. UZZIAH (Lot)
15. UZZIAH (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie


1. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
3. JOB (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens


11. STEPHEN (Stephen)

13. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)

14. ABSALOM (Lazarus)



Not Voting:
Barnabas (2)
Cain<---voter = civvie
Esther (2)
Gideon<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
Hagar<---voter was the civvie smited after our first 3 civ stonings
Isaac
Jacob
Jephthah<---voter = civvie
Jonah
Judah (2)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Mary Mag<---voter = civvie
Mordecai
Nicodemus<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
Pilate
Ruth<===VOTER = HEATHEN
Samuel
Balaam wrote:DAY 3 Results:

10. MARY MAG (Rebecca)
13. MARY MAG (Jacob)
14. MARY MAG (Belshazzar)
15. MARY MAG (Jephthah)
<---voter = civvie
16. MARY MAG (Deborah)
21. MARY MAG (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
22. MARY MAG (Balaam)


1. UZZIAH (Job)<---voter = civvie
5. UZZIAH (Nicodemus)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
9. UZZIAH (Absalom)
20. UZZIAH (Rahab)


2. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
7. JOB (Isaac)
17. JOB (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
18. JOB (Esther)


6. LAZARUS (Mordecai)
11. LAZARUS (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
12. LAZARUS (Gideon)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens


3. RACHEL (Lot)
4. RACHEL (Mary Mag)
<---voter = civvie

8. RAHAB (Jonah)

19. ABSALOM (Lazarus)

Day 3 Not Voting:
Barnabas (3)
Bathsheba (2)
Hagar (2)<---voter was the civvie smited after our first 3 civ stonings
Judah (3)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Malchus
Pilate (2)
Samuel (2)
Stephen
Balaam wrote:DAY 4 Results:

2. JOB (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
6. JOB (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
8. JOB (Stephen)
9. JOB (Jonah)
10. JOB (Samuel)

12. JOB (Balaam)
17. JOB (Esther)
18. JOB (Jonathan)
<---voter = civvie
21. JOB (Belshazzar)


3. BALAAM (Absalom)
4. BALAAM (Nicodemus)
<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
7. BALAAM (Rebecca)
16. BALAAM (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
19. BALAAM (Judah)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings


1. RACHEL (Pilate)
15. RACHEL (Job)<---voter = civvie


11. LAZARUS (Mordecai)
14. LAZARUS (Rahab)


5. ABSALOM (Lazarus)

13. UZZIAH (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN

20. DEBORAH (Deborah)


Not Voting:
Barnabas (4)
Bathsheba (3)
Isaac (2)
Jacob (2)
Lot
Malchus (2)
Balaam wrote:DAY 5 Results:

1. UZZIAH (Pilate)
3. UZZIAH (Stephen)
4. UZZIAH (Absalom)

6. UZZIAH (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
9. UZZIAH (Esther)
12. UZZIAH (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN
14. UZZIAH (Rahab)
16. UZZIAH (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
17. UZZIAH (Mordecai)


2. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)
8. JEPHTHAH (Lot)
10. JEPHTHAH (Samuel)
15. JEPHTHAH (Isaac)
19. JEPHTHAH (Jonah)


5. SAMUEL (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
11. SAMUEL (Belshazzar)


7. STEPHEN (Uzziah)<===VOTER = HEATHEN

13. ABSALOM (Lazarus)

18. MALCHUS (Deborah)

Not Voting:
Balaam
Bathsheba (4)
Jacob (3)
Judah (4)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Malchus (3)
Balaam wrote:DAY 6 Results:

2. RUTH (Absalom)
3. RUTH (Stephen)

5. RUTH (Lot)
7. RUTH (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
14. RUTH (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens
17. RUTH (Balaam)
18. RUTH (Belshazzar)
19. RUTH (Samuel)
20. RUTH (Bathsheba)



1. RACHEL (Isaac)
8. RACHEL (Rebecca)
9. RACHEL (Mordecai)

15. RACHEL (Jacob)


4. ABSALOM (Pilate)
11. ABSALOM (Lazarus)
16. ABSALOM (Ruth)<===VOTER = HEATHEN

6. PILATE (Esther)
10. PILATE (Rahab)

12. JACOB (Jonathan)<---voter = civvie
13. JACOB (Deborah)

Not Voting:
Jonah (2)
Judah (5)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Malchus (4)
Day 7 Results:

8. JEPHTHAH (Lot)
9. JEPHTHAH (Rebecca)
10. JEPHTHAH (Balaam)
11. JEPHTHAH (Samuel)
12. JEPHTHAH (Lazarus)
13. JEPHTHAH (Jonathan)
<---voter = civvie


1. JONATHAN (Absalom)
3. JONATHAN (Pilate)
6. JONATHAN (Stephen)

14. JONATHAN (Belshazzar)


2. PILATE (Esther)
7. PILATE (Rahab)


4. REBECCA (Jephthah)<---voter = civvie
5. REBECCA (Jacob)

15. JACOB (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens

16. BALAAM (Mordecai)

Not Voting:
Bathsheba (5)
Deborah
Isaac (3)
Jonah (3)
Judah (6)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Malchus (5)
Day 8 Results:

2. JONATHAN (Pilate)
3. JONATHAN (Stephen)
4. JONATHAN (Esther))
5. JONATHAN (Balaam)

9. JONATHAN (Absalom)
10. JONATHAN (Deborah)
11. JONATHAN (Belshazzar)
12. JONATHAN (Jacob)
13. JONATHAN (Jonah)

15. JONATHAN (Samuel)


6. JACOB (Rahab)
8. JACOB (Rachel)<---voter = NK'ed by heathens


1. LAZARUS (Lot)
14. LAZARUS (Lazarus)


7. BALAAM (Mordecai)

Not Voting:
Bathsheba (6)
Isaac (4)
Jonathan<---voter = civvie
Judah (7)<---voter was the civvie smited after our second 3 civ stonings
Malchus (6)
Rebecca
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2287

Post by Saito »

Hey all, so I've skimmed the thread, and there are a TON of huge wall posts breaking down every vote from every fucking angle, lol? Can someone point me towards one or two summaries, or conclusion-type posts? I as always have limited time, but I want to actually try to judge the cases and I'm not going to have time read a novel. Any help would be appreciated, I'll be back in this afternoon.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2288

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Deborah wrote:Hey all, so I've skimmed the thread, and there are a TON of huge wall posts breaking down every vote from every fucking angle, lol? Can someone point me towards one or two summaries, or conclusion-type posts? I as always have limited time, but I want to actually try to judge the cases and I'm not going to have time read a novel. Any help would be appreciated, I'll be back in this afternoon.
I really hope you're Heathen. Otherwise... man.

None of the recaps thus far are foolproof. We've either found or will find a few things to nitpick on or details that went unnoticed or overlooked. If I had to pick one, I'd recommend...
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FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF! :slick: :feb:
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2289

Post by Young Lady »

I somehow missed the fact that Lot voted Lazarus again and Isaac self voted. :confused:
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2290

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

You may have missed his vote but don't feel bad- I did too. I went back to check his posts and he never gave an explanation for it.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2291

Post by Snapshot »

So Isaac's response to my case is a self-vote.

Stuff like that is frustrating.

I voted Lazarus at the very start of the day. I did mention it (at least I'm pretty sure I did).
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2292

Post by Young Lady »

You did, Lot, I just didn't pick it up in your posts - I focused on your reads in the same post where you said you'll vote for him.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2293

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Humor me Belshazzar, you offered what read to me like a pretty soft read on Mordecai. His vote pattern looks very suspicious and I don't really have anything in my notes on him that strikes me as worthy of giving him a pass through the next two votes. Heck, your notes don't even seem to justify feeling even neutral on him.
Belshazzar wrote:Mordecai
Day 1: scrutiny of Paul's actions, but also suspicious of Samson and ends up voting for him (first of in the ensuing lynch). Day 2, calls hunt for Uzziah both a cop out but also something he doesn't disagree with (just that it offers room for complacency). Nevertheless, argues significantly with Job instead over this. Come Day 3, he's already wary of Job tunneling, but as far as I notice, didn't take it further.

Two consecutive votes for Lazarus, for his own tunneling of Absalom. His Day 3 one the first of three, whilst Uzziah and Rachel (and soon Job) had already two votes; he never really touched upon these players. His Day 4 is amidst an intense Job vs. Balaam train, in which he again has no part in.
No serious content Day 5 expect his vote post for Uzziah, a late vote that solidifies his lynch. Upon being questioned by Jeph, states that he voted Uzziah in retaliation to Job's flip. His statement that Uzziah would have been a sure lynch (=highly likely lynch) every day raises some eyebrows and rightly so, because it was neither the case quite every single day (except for Day 3), nor did he state this before with conviction.

Day 6, he works on a "voting together" angle of reading the vote records, signaling Deborah, Malchus and Rachel. Votes Rachel of the three, but, conspicuously or not, his vote now stands as bringing Rachel at 3-4 versus Ruth.

Day 7, odd angle theory at whether Absalom would look intentionally civ given Ruth's vote for him. Also builds up his Balaam theory, but presents it only Day 8. Regarding this, some points either don't stand out for me as much as for him or Balaam sounded genuine in defending against them (for instance, #2 and #3, if anyone has followed their exchange), but interestingly enough, he does connect him with Ruth in the timing of the votes, just like Lot noticed.

Hmm, I was sort of expecting to have a stronger read on him. The votes that could be accounted as the worst would be (in order) Day 6 (possible push for Rachel to save Ruth), Day 1 (Samson train, whilst his teammates jumped on Cain's instead) and maybe Day 3. I can't lock his Day 5 vote as bad, but if he is a Heathen, then the deed was long done on sacrificing Uzziah.

From the votes themselves, turning Ruth's lynch into that angle to suspect Absalom seems to me to go against the very nature of Ruth's intent when voting for Absalom (him to die instead of her), so maybe it was an intentionally forced perspective offered to the thread? Is this what others are picking up on as well? Besides that, his Day 3 Lazarus pick and his statement that Uzziah was always highly lyncheable don't match up in attitude, especially for the day that Uzziah could have been lynched. But again, I was hoping for a stronger bad read of him than such circumstantial ideas. I'm open to keeping him in check.
What gives?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2294

Post by Snapshot »

Belshazzar wrote:Jonah

Not the cleanest vote record either, often going spontaneously for his last suspicion (Mary, Rahab) and leaving others behind (Martha, Balaam, Deborah). Never took a stance on Uzziah (being unsure what to make of it), plus left an awfully jokey post in awe to Uzziah's troll abilities, but also came up with the "feud" theory between Job and Uzziah. That being said, he chose the case on Job over the one on Balaam, Day 4, at a time when the two were even. A flip on Balaam, at any point, could make Jonah look better or worse, in this regard.
That theory could have the effect of discrediting Job and potentially helping prevent votes on Uzz, too. Could play into a 'jonah is bad' scenario.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2295

Post by Young Lady »

I can't answer "what gives", I did my best re-reading all the players. Mordecai's read isn't really neutral from me either, but I've found slightly more incriminating reads than his and, given that you and Absalom have him as top suspect, I expected to find more. I've fully stated which votes read the worst to me (both on their own and how he followed them up afterwards) and they do deem him suspicious. If I gave the impression of giving him a pass, especially with the last sentence, that isn't quite so, I meant more that I want to discuss it further.

linki: I suppose, especially since he went with Job after all. But at that time, with Job accused of intense tunnel vision, it was generally a method to try to assess better what's really making him so focused.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2296

Post by Young Lady »

Lot wrote:So at minimum, the logic is flawed in that Martha could have been Simon the Zealot. So could have Paul but I feel like Stephen might have felt Lazarus was worth pushing harder, given his close affinity with Paul.
I finally picked up on this possible loophole (guess I didn't read your reads lists too well and your conversation with the Host afterwards, either :blush:), interesting. But Simon was activated on Night 1, so it can only be Martha. Small window.

What did you mean by Stephen's close affinity with Paul?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2297

Post by NurseWilgy »

Isaac's self vote is troubling. But to me it reads like a civvie who feels doomed.. He is convinced he will either get NKed or lynched. I can't see a baddie throwing in the towell like thta.

I am voting for Mordecai and giving Shazzie a hard :eye: for not finding him suspicious.
nutellaphant wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:56 pm Image

@NurseWilgy don't post any more k
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JamminJimmyJay wrote:Wilgy's vote is an enigma of science. Philosophers are known to throw their tomes across the auditorium in a fit of frustration after failing to solve its mystery.
insertusernamehere wrote: Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:50 pm WTF was up with Wilgy's entire deal?
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2298

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Belshazzar wrote:I can't answer "what gives", I did my best re-reading all the players. Mordecai's read isn't really neutral from me either, but I've found slightly more incriminating reads than his and, given that you and Absalom have him as top suspect, I expected to find more. I've fully stated which votes read the worst to me (both on their own and how he followed them up afterwards) and they do deem him suspicious. If I gave the impression of giving him a pass, especially with the last sentence, that isn't quite so, I meant more that I want to discuss it further.

linki: I suppose, especially since he went with Job after all. But at that time, with Job accused of intense tunnel vision, it was generally a method to try to assess better what's really making him so focused.
I find his Day 1 vote very curious because he all but made a "I'm trying to catch up but I need to vote quick" reason and then voted for the player taking the most heat at the same time the Uzziah was tied for the lead with Samuel but nobody was seriously pursuing Samuel as an option anymore.

He also specifically singles out Jacob, Mary, and Samuel for voting Samson. Perhaps they provided the weakest reasons for their votes but knowing Cain is civvie, its curious that Mordecai only wants to focus on those three and pays no mind to Isaac, Jonathan, or you for voting for the train that he started. The more I look, the more weird stuff I see. Maybe Mordecai is just a weird player.

I've seen Mordecai lurking several times yesterday and today. I wonder if he will join us or if he's being a Noticeable Pouter after his post yesterday.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2299

Post by Young Lady »

Absalom wrote:Isaac's self vote is troubling. But to me it reads like a civvie who feels doomed.. He is convinced he will either get NKed or lynched. I can't see a baddie throwing in the towell like thta.

I am voting for Mordecai and giving Shazzie a hard :eye: for not finding him suspicious.
Not finding him suspicious at all? Nah. To put it that is like saying I've put him up there with Rahab, in the not finding suspicious clouds.
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Re: Biblical Mafia [CHAPTER IX]

#2300

Post by Prisoner 509378 »

Belshazzar wrote:
Absalom wrote:Isaac's self vote is troubling. But to me it reads like a civvie who feels doomed.. He is convinced he will either get NKed or lynched. I can't see a baddie throwing in the towell like thta.

I am voting for Mordecai and giving Shazzie a hard :eye: for not finding him suspicious.
Not finding him suspicious at all? Nah. To put it that is like saying I've put him up there with Rahab, in the not finding suspicious clouds.
I agree with you on this Belshazzar. You seem to have him in a gray area for sure, just not cracking your top five right now. I think Absalom oversimplified. I think your read was soft but not negligent.
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