[ENDGAME] The Office Mafia

[leetic]

LOL, that's one way to sub out (2nd time I tried to sub out only to be nightkilled, btw). I would just like to apologize for the inactivity, as I was getting ready to run a game of my own (should be up by tomorrow). That, and I am unused to games of this size). I'll still try to spectate, though, and I wish you all good luck!

Fixed.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

That last post of mine one reason to reconsider the notion that S~V~S isn't bad.

Now here's a reason why she might still be:

This happened really fast. Someone had to activate their role to end the day phase specifically after Quin received the vote, meaning someone had to see the vote happen and then immediately send a PM to Dom to kill the day. If it is a baddie plot to force S~V~S to vote Quin and then end the day -- they'd have to know for sure she'd vote immediately and be prepared to end the day phase. I don't know how they'd know that. If they don't know that, then that means they'd have gotten lucky with her quick vote and reacted to it with very impressive quickness -- so fast that I doubt they'd have even discussed it. So fast that I think one baddie would have sent the PM without consulting the team mates.

With this in mind, it strikes me as more likely that the speed at which this occurred indicates a pre-planned event, one that would require certainty of the timing of S~V~S's vote. This certainty would exist if she is on the team devising the plan.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think my pro-S~V~S argument is resonating with me more right now than my anti-S~V~S argument. It's unusual to have a compelling case both ways though.

[Ricochet]

We better get paid overtime for this.

That's what she said.

Is it perpetual Day One in here, by the way?

[S~V~S]

S~V~S could have been forced. It'd require a baddie role to exist which parallels Meredith's or comes close. That's a guess, but it's plausible enough to consider. S~V~S seemed to imply that Quin understood her vote on some level, and he didn't react adversely to it. That's something she can talk about.

My vote was not the vote I would have liked to make. I am not on the team that killed Quin. I tried to do exactly what he did so he would get the parallel.

I was online, and even though I go invisible I was active in another thread so I guess they knew it. Maybe a member of the forcer team is online a lot?

In any case I am sorry to see Quin go. While I made the vote, I had nothing to do with his death knowingly. I was a victim, too.

Had I made the vote I would have liked to it would have been for Epignosis again. With certainty.

[S~V~S]

I did not mean to use the word forcer; what I meant to say was day ender. That was a poor choice of words and I am half awake so not sure why I used that word.

[Golden]

We better get paid overtime for this.

That's what she said.

Is it perpetual Day One in here, by the way?

Yes. This is Mulholland Drive mafia. I'm not sure if I was supposed to say that, though...

[S~V~S]

SVS's role could might as well be a townie role. Erin's role to stop a lynch is almost the opposite of this role.

SVS, do you deny the allegations?

I deny them categorically. I am not on any team. I did not knowingly have anything to do with Quins death. Doing what I did would be the stupidest move in the world on my part if I knew what was going to happen.

Would ANY of you have done that knowingly?

But I am okay with getting lynched if need be. I think the town could gain some benefit from it.

[DrumBeats]

@ Scotty - Huge assumption jumps that Leetic was mafia, considering his actions made him the biggest roll of a dice alignment out there. You're willing to make assumptions based upon but not upon SVS, who is so clearly behind the Quin death. Also, I'm just saying, if I were mafia and Leetic was as well, I would've lynches Leetic for the civ cred. If a teammate was being that useless, I would've driven the lynch myself. It makes more sense for mafia to push a lynch on a mafia Leetic, because they could get some use out if him in the form of civ cred. You seem awful sure he was mafia to start making suspicions based on that. Hmm...

@ SVS Yeah, I can say that if I were mafia I would 100% do that. It would buy my team two night phases, and I could just give that same bullshit argument that you are giving right now and try to walk away clean. Risky? Yes. But it is moderate-risk-high-reward. Let's think about the concrete facts for a second:

-Mafia knew Quin was civ
-Mafia knew that Quin had no reason to lie about the advantage the mafia would get for lynching him
-Mafia knew that Quin's vote on SVS appeared to be forced yesterday. Who knows if it was or not (I would assume so since why would Quin lie about it)
- Mafia had to know that Merdith's forced votes would not count if the players didn't submit them by EoD.

Let's talk about what these mean, specifically the last two.

Knowing that Quin appeared to have a vote forced is huge because it lets SVS walk away from the whole thing, looking better than before. If the vote forcing role was mafia, they would have control over it and could have:
Not used it so nobody could cc forced vote.
Used it on ScumVS so if she said the vote was forced, Pams lie detector would clear her.
Used it on SVillagerS and hoped she voted early enough for them to lock it.
Number 2 on that list seems the most likely to me personally. Given the information available it was too easy for SVS to walk away clean, as you guys are letting her do now.

Next we move onto how Meredith didn't play into this situation. I clarified with Dom after this event occurred and Merediths votes were not factored into the lynch, since they had not occurred yet, though being forced votes, I would assume they are active at EoD no matter what in case the inactive player refuses to vote. But the mafia clearly did not make the assumption that Merediths votes would get in the way before ending the day, evident by how quick it happened. This leads me to believe that the plan was premeditated, in which case SVS would need to be mafia. The scum team wouldn't have been able to rely on a forced vote coming so early, and especially from SVS who as Sorsha pointed out has voiced opinions on EoD forced vote posting, which directly contradict what she has done now.

Tl;dr: SVS is mafia, and as mafia I would have 100% done the same thing

So far for the mafia team I'm thinking:
SVS
Scotty
Matt

At least, Scotty's assumption that Leetic is mafia makes me feel like Leetic might have been, assuming I am right about Scotty.

[S~V~S]

Drum beats, I have not been afraid to make clear statements for Pam. I have nothing to hide. I don't have btsc with anyone. I am not on any Mafia team. I had nothing to do with ending the day early.

First, why do you think the bad team knew Quins role during the night?

It's intriguing that all you picked up from my post was the part about "it would be insane to do that". You don't even have to read between my lines to see that I am making one hell of a lot of direct statements. I am not worried about Pam checking me since I have nothing to fear.

Ask me direct questions, I will give you direct answers.

[S~V~S]

Drum beats, I have not been afraid to make clear statements for Pam. I have nothing to hide. I don't have btsc with anyone. I am not on any Mafia team. I had nothing to do with ending the day early.

First, why do you think the bad team knew Quins role during the night?

It's intriguing that all you picked up from my post was the part about "it would be insane to do that". You don't even have to read between my lines to see that I am making one hell of a lot of direct statements. I am not worried about Pam checking me since I have nothing to fear.

Ask me direct questions, I will give you direct answers.

Let me reword this; I do not know who ended the day. I did not know the day was going to be ended.

[DrumBeats]

Drum beats, I have not been afraid to make clear statements for Pam. I have nothing to hide. I don't have btsc with anyone. I am not on any Mafia team. I had nothing to do with ending the day early.

First, why do you think the bad team knew Quins role during the night?

It's intriguing that all you picked up from my post was the part about "it would be insane to do that". You don't even have to read between my lines to see that I am making one hell of a lot of direct statements. I am not worried about Pam checking me since I have nothing to fear.

Ask me direct questions, I will give you direct answers.

I'm not sure they knew the role but earlier Quin claimed that the mafia would get an advantage of he was lynched. I'm not sure if Holly's role was put up before or after Quin was lynched, but if it was before, it would be easy to put two and two together.

And that's all I got because that's about all you said. You denied allegations and said that. I'll post the quote in a second here but you're actually not making a hell of a lot of direct statements. Many of them you have attributed to inherent motivation that Dom would not be able to answer. I'll post the breakdown in a sec.

Also before I get into that too, having nothing to fear from Pam also isn't a towntell. Since Pam cannot infodump, Pam would have to check your statement and push the thread toward you while you still can say that you have direct statements. Anyway though, breakdown of indirect statements coming up next.

[DrumBeats]

S~V~S could have been forced. It'd require a baddie role to exist which parallels Meredith's or comes close. That's a guess, but it's plausible enough to consider. S~V~S seemed to imply that Quin understood her vote on some level, and he didn't react adversely to it. That's something she can talk about.

My vote was not the vote I would have liked to make. (1) I am not on the team that killed Quin. (2) I tried to do exactly what he did so he would get the parallel. (3)

I was online, and even though I go invisible I was active in another thread so I guess they knew it. (4) Maybe a member of the forcer team is online a lot? (5)

In any case I am sorry to see Quin go. (6) While I made the vote, I had nothing to do with his death knowingly. (7) I was a victim, too. (8)

Had I made the vote I would have liked to it would have been for Epignosis again. (9) With certainty. (10)

1 - SVS never says the vote was forced, but that it is not the vote he would have liked to make. This would likely make the statement uncheckable because how would Dom know who SVS would've liked to vote for? Invalid.

2 - Nobody killed Quin. Quin was lynched. Easy enough loophole that could save this from a check. Maybe valid, but likely invalid.

3 - Again, Dom can't confirm or deny your motivation behind the action. Invalid.

4 - Dom can't confirm or deny out of game stuff. Invalid.

5 - Question. Invalid.

6 - Your thoughts and feelings cannot be checked by the host. Invalid.

7 - Might be the only checkable post on here. Wording is a little funny, but nothing that I think could throw off a result. Valid.

8 - How do we define victim? Could have numerous definitions that could place you anywhere on the spectrum. Probably Invalid, definitely an unreliable answer.

9 - Again, how would Dom know this? Invalid.

10 - ^ Same as above. Invalid

Valid statements: 1/10 - 3/10
Valid statements with reliable answers: 1/10 - 2/10
Likelihood SVS is scum: 9/10 - 9.99999999999/10

[DrumBeats]

SVS's role could might as well be a townie role. Erin's role to stop a lynch is almost the opposite of this role.

SVS, do you deny the allegations?

I deny them categorically. (1) I am not on any team. (2) I did not knowingly have anything to do with Quins death. (3) Doing what I did would be the stupidest move in the world on my part if I knew what was going to happen. (4)

Would ANY of you have done that knowingly? (5)

But I am okay with getting lynched if need be. (6) I think the town could gain some benefit from it. (7)

1 - Of course you do. Anybody would regardless of alignment. Valid, but useless.

2 - Civilians are a team. I feel like this one was placed in there so if Pam got a negative result, there's easily the "Oops I worded that poorly" argument. - Valid, relatively useless UNLESS SVS is an independent.

3 - Valid, better wording than the last statement that said the same thing in the other post (#7 in the last post). Only willing to count the two of them as one statement though, since they are the same damn thing. Valid.

4 - Hypothetical. Invalid.

5 - Question. Invalid.

6 - Motivation. Invalid.

7 - Benefit is too loosely defined for this to be valid imo. We would benefit from having certainty about the situation, and we would also benefit from lynching a ScumVS. Probably invalid.

This post stats:

Valid statements: 3/7 - 4-7
Valid, reliable, and useful statements: 1/7 , which was already stated in the last one.

Total stats: (Combining 7 from last post with 3 from this since they are the same statement)

Valid: 3/16 - 6/16
Valid, reliable, and useful statements: 1/16 - 2/16
Likelihood SVS is scum: 9/10 - 9.99999999999/10

[DrumBeats]

I've got to go, I'll do the last post when I get back later. Skimming over it again, I see three seemingly valid and checkable statements in the first paragraph. The rest look uncheckable. Though those three look pretty solid.

Also want to note how calm SVS is about the Quin flip. If I were in her shoes and a civilian, I would be anything but calm.

Should be noted too that SVS claimed to have already made a lot of direct statements during her response to me, yet made very few by then. Also going to point out how SVS made no attempt to dialogue with my suspicions, and instead tried to redirect attention to how "complaint" she is being with Pam. I answered the hypothetical she was trying to use to clear herself, she didn't like the answer, and she changed the topic.

[Turnip Head]

Nope. That's not a move SVS makes this early in the game as a baddie. She blew up her whole game if she did. Someone set her up.

My only question for SVS is why she voted so early. I haven't read back yet so maybe her answer is already there.

[DrumBeats]

Nope. That's not a move SVS makes this early in the game as a baddie. She blew up her whole game if she did. Someone set her up.

My only question for SVS is why she voted so early. I haven't read back yet so maybe her answer is already there.

Did she really blow her game though? I'm the only one who is actually pushing that she is mafia. Seems to me like she got off clean.

[DrumBeats]

I just found out that I've actually got at least another 30 minutes before I leave, so I'm going to finish up what I started.

[Turnip Head]

Nope. That's not a move SVS makes this early in the game as a baddie. She blew up her whole game if she did. Someone set her up.

My only question for SVS is why she voted so early. I haven't read back yet so maybe her answer is already there.

Did she really blow her game though? I'm the only one who is actually pushing that she is mafia. Seems to me like she got off clean.

You can't anticipate such a reaction if you're the baddie in this scenario. She would have to assume that it would draw attention to her. Is it worth it this early? Quin wasn't going anywhere.

[DrumBeats]

Drum beats, I have not been afraid to make clear statements for Pam. (1) I have nothing to hide. (2) I don't have btsc with anyone. (3) I am not on any Mafia team. (4) I had nothing to do with ending the day early. I do not know who ended the day. (5) I did not know the day was going to be ended. (6)

First, why do you think the bad team knew Quins role during the night? (7)

It's intriguing that all you picked up from my post was the part about "it would be insane to do that". (7) You don't even have to read between my lines to see that I am making one hell of a lot of direct statements. (8) I am not worried about Pam checking me since I have nothing to fear. (9)

Ask me direct questions, I will give you direct answers. (10)

First, I replaced the sentence that SVS reworded since that makes a difference here.

1 - Have not been afraid muddys this. Could have been worded, "Drumbeats, I have made plenty of clear statements for Pam" in order to make it checkable, but even then it would be a useless check. Invalid.

2 - Also doesn't seem checkable, and if it is, it is not useful. A civilian role with information technically has "something to hide". A civilian doctor has "something to hide" because if mafia catches wind they are dead. Maybe valid, definitely useless.

3 - DING DING DING! A statement that seems both valid and useful. Congrats.

4 - An incredibly useful statement, but is it checkable? According to the OP, Pam cannot check things like "I am a civ". Why could she be able to check if somebody is not mafia. 6 of one and half dozen of another. Likely invalid, but if not it is very useful.

5 - Also likely checkable and useful. Only way that I could see this being loopholed out by the mafia is if the team knows all of the roles available to them but doesn't know who has what. I doubt that is the case, but it is worth mentioning. Valid, useful.

6 - Poor wording. Needs to add the word early to it in order for it to be possible. The day would be ended 48 hours later regardless. Invalid.

7 - A question. Invalid.

8 - Worded so it is not checkable, but who would want to check it anyway. Invalid.

9 - Make a more personal statement about Pam's check which would make it invalid. "nothing to fear" and "I am not worried" make it more about SVS's thoughts than concrete action, which would make it uncheckable by Dom. Better wording would be "If Pam checked any of my checkable statements, it would come up as true" Invalid.

10 - Future action. Invalid.

This post's statistics:

Valid: 2/10 - 4/10
Valid, reliable, and useful: 2/10 - 3/10

Total:

Valid: 5/26 - 10 /26
Valid, reliable, and useful: 3/26 - 5/26
Chance SVS is scum: 9/10 - 9.5/10

[DrumBeats]

Nope. That's not a move SVS makes this early in the game as a baddie. She blew up her whole game if she did. Someone set her up.

My only question for SVS is why she voted so early. I haven't read back yet so maybe her answer is already there.

Did she really blow her game though? I'm the only one who is actually pushing that she is mafia. Seems to me like she got off clean.

You can't anticipate such a reaction if you're the baddie in this scenario. She would have to assume that it would draw attention to her. Is it worth it this early? Quin wasn't going anywhere.

Worst case scenario it was a 3 civilian to one mafia trade. Not terrible at all, so it was low risk.

Now factor in that it seemed like Quin's vote on SVS was forced yesterday by something other than Meredith. That opens up an easy line of defense.

Now factor in that the mafia wasn't worried about Meredith's extra forced votes taking play before ending the phase. That shows that either it is premeditated and the mafia must've asked about it beforehand or that meredith forced the nonvoters to vote for Quin.

Was it really a big risk for SVS to do this?

[Turnip Head]

Am I the only one reading DrumBeats' posts in Dwight's voice?

[DrumBeats]

Also, I wanted to point out too that SVS was afraid to break the tie between BWT and Leetic and put out a throwaway vote on Day 2. Being afraid to tie-break is a scumtell imo, because if you tie-break towards a civilian, you instantly become suspect. Not being certain of leetic's alignment muddies this a bit, but a civilian should never be afraid to break a tie.

[Turnip Head]

I'm sorry, but you can't convince me that SVS threw herself under the bus on Day 3 to take out a couple of civilians. Later in the game, maybe. But there's no reason to rush that power play unless you're setting something else up in the process. The mafia only use that power this early if it doesn't implicate any of them.

I think Dwight says it best:

[juliets]

Haha @Turnip Head love your Dwight and I agree with it.

Drumbeats, isn't it enough for S~V~S to offer several statements that can be checked and would be useful? Does she have to make all her statements in a post checkable/useful for some reason? And in your calculations could you tell me where the 26 comes from?

[DrumBeats]

It's not at all an idiotic thing for SVS to do though. All you're doing is proving to me why this was a brilliant move for the scum.

@ juliets - Yes, but if you are using "You should have noticed that I provided many clear and direct statements for Pam to check" as your defense, you better have actually done that. I checked all of their validity and that was not the case. Other than the post in which SVS used that as her defense, there was only one valid and useful statement that was stated twice. The other legitimate useful and valid posts only came in the same post SVS decided to use that as a defense. The 26 comes from the total number of sentences SVS posts. The numerator comes from the number of those sentences that were valid to check, or in the second case valid, reliable, and useful. And if you believe that SVS giving checkable sentences is enough to make her innocent, how do you think Pam should share this information with us?

[Turnip Head]

I don't know what to tell you if you think this was a brilliant move by SVS, I think it's the worst possible move she could have made. But I've said all I can on this subject, I'll let others offer their take on this.

[DFaraday]

I agree with DB that this scenario presents a huge benefit for the Mafia. Since the day phase was so short, we're essentially in three straight night phases, where the baddies can keep killing unchecked. Add in Quin's death, and the Mafia basically get 4 kills in a row while we're sitting ducks. Not to mention, by the time this long night is over, we'll probably have a very divisive argument over whether SVS should be lynched, potentially stalling things in the baddies' favor even longer. It absolutely seems worth it for a Mafia member to risk themselves for what amounts to an extended period of thread domination and kills free of reprisal.

Besides, the reasons for SVS being civ are all more convoluted than her being bad. The whole "No baddie would risk themselves like that!" angle is pure WIFOM, and the scenario in which SVS just happened to vote super early, and the baddies just happened to know she would vote super early, and just happened to be around to send in a PM fast enough that no other players had even left a placeholder vote all strains credulity more than the notion that SVS is complicit.

[S~V~S]

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

[DFaraday]

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

You've made a few solid checkable remarks, but I don't think it proves much since a) Pam can't share with the thread what she learns, and b) we don't even know if Pam is alive, or will be by the time this Eternal Night Phase ends.

But for sportsmanship's sake:

Why did you vote immediately?
Were you aware of the day-ending ability?

[DrumBeats]

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

So your argument has shifted with every post.

First post: Why would mafia do this?

I bring up why I think it was in the mafias best interest to do it.

Second post: Completely ignores that logic. Asks why you would be supplying statements for Pam, when in reality you had only supplied one twice up until that post.

I point this out and bring up the question of how Pam is supposed to inform us of her check without infodumping.

Third Post: A weak emotional appeal that says that you can't believe two people think you're idiotic enough to do this. The thing is though, I referred to it as a brilliant move, and Faraday called it a good scum move, so there is no base to you saying we thought you were an idiot.

Question for you: If you can't say that you were forced, why do you think Pam is going to be able to say that you're lying?

[Scotty]

Okee DB, look:

@ Scotty - Huge assumption jumps that Leetic was mafia, considering his actions made him the biggest roll of a dice alignment out there. You're willing to make assumptions based upon but not upon SVS, who is so clearly behind the Quin death. Also, I'm just saying, if I were mafia and Leetic was as well, I would've lynches Leetic for the civ cred. If a teammate was being that useless, I would've driven the lynch myself. It makes more sense for mafia to push a lynch on a mafia Leetic, because they could get some use out if him in the form of civ cred. You seem awful sure he was mafia to start making suspicions based on that. Hmm...

@ SVS Yeah, I can say that if I were mafia I would 100% do that. It would buy my team two night phases, and I could just give that same bullshit argument that you are giving right now and try to walk away clean. Risky? Yes. But it is moderate-risk-high-reward. Let's think about the concrete facts for a second:

-Mafia knew Quin was civ
-Mafia knew that Quin had no reason to lie about the advantage the mafia would get for lynching him
-Mafia knew that Quin's vote on SVS appeared to be forced yesterday. Who knows if it was or not (I would assume so since why would Quin lie about it)
- Mafia had to know that Merdith's forced votes would not count if the players didn't submit them by EoD.

Let's talk about what these mean, specifically the last two.

Knowing that Quin appeared to have a vote forced is huge because it lets SVS walk away from the whole thing, looking better than before. If the vote forcing role was mafia, they would have control over it and could have:
Not used it so nobody could cc forced vote.
Used it on ScumVS so if she said the vote was forced, Pams lie detector would clear her.
Used it on SVillagerS and hoped she voted early enough for them to lock it.
Number 2 on that list seems the most likely to me personally. Given the information available it was too easy for SVS to walk away clean, as you guys are letting her do now.

Next we move onto how Meredith didn't play into this situation. I clarified with Dom after this event occurred and Merediths votes were not factored into the lynch, since they had not occurred yet, though being forced votes, I would assume they are active at EoD no matter what in case the inactive player refuses to vote. But the mafia clearly did not make the assumption that Merediths votes would get in the way before ending the day, evident by how quick it happened. This leads me to believe that the plan was premeditated, in which case SVS would need to be mafia. The scum team wouldn't have been able to rely on a forced vote coming so early, and especially from SVS who as Sorsha pointed out has voiced opinions on EoD forced vote posting, which directly contradict what she has done now.

Tl;dr: SVS is mafia, and as mafia I would have 100% done the same thing

So far for the mafia team I'm thinking:
SVS
Scotty
Matt

At least, Scotty's assumption that Leetic is mafia makes me feel like Leetic might have been, assuming I am right about Scotty.

First of all, why include all these if/then statements of you being mafia? This is WIFOM and not helpful. I don't think I've ever seen you as mafia, and I heard from someone in a past game (Epi I think) that metas are crap because people can easily take advantage of a perception. O don't know what you would do as mafia, and you telling me about it doesn't make it any more true.

'If I were mafia, I'd have smothered 5 babies with pillows by now' -Anyone, or no one, it doesn't matter

Now see, you're inferring SVS is bad from basic assumptions as well. If you're going to invalidate my claim that leetic is mafia based on assumptions, how can you use the same sort of logic to claim that SVS is mafia? The facts are not all there, despite the angle you're opining.

How could mafia definitely have known this? He could have certainly been baiting.

This statement is invalid. 'I Believe, based on assumptions and inferences from my own logic, therefore it IS true.' This is akin to saying "I think milk tastes like snot, therefore it is snot.

So you're agreeing with me that leetic can be assumed mafia? And that makes me bad?


You came out swinging for SVS' head not 20 minutes after the day ended early. This was your first post:

WHOA WHOA WTF.

What I gather from this:

One of Eloh/Leetic was the Maf kill; my bet is on Eloh because Leetic wouldve been an easy mislynch. Leetic was likely the work of Andy the vigilante, who now cannot take over Michaels power as manager.

SVS voted Quin and insta-locked it. SVS had to have had info that Quin was Holly as well as access to a lynch ender through another corporate role, hence it locking.

Idk am I tunnel-visioning this by assuming SVS is confirmed mafia now? I can't think of any other explanation for how shit just went down.

You assume Elo is mafia, for no good reason other than leetic was an "easy mislynch". A mislynch that you yourself could get behind, as I talked about in my last post.
You immediately throw a grenade at SVS, with the insight that she "HAD to have had info". Though you ASSUME she is confirmed mafia.


Literally everything you're throwing down at SVS is an assumption veiled as an absolute and I see right through it.

[Scotty]

I agree with DB that this scenario presents a huge benefit for the Mafia. Since the day phase was so short, we're essentially in three straight night phases, where the baddies can keep killing unchecked. Add in Quin's death, and the Mafia basically get 4 kills in a row while we're sitting ducks. Not to mention, by the time this long night is over, we'll probably have a very divisive argument over whether SVS should be lynched, potentially stalling things in the baddies' favor even longer. It absolutely seems worth it for a Mafia member to risk themselves for what amounts to an extended period of thread domination and kills free of reprisal.

Besides, the reasons for SVS being civ are all more convoluted than her being bad. The whole "No baddie would risk themselves like that!" angle is pure WIFOM, and the scenario in which SVS just happened to vote super early, and the baddies just happened to know she would vote super early, and just happened to be around to send in a PM fast enough that no other players had even left a placeholder vote all strains credulity more than the notion that SVS is complicit.

Do you think SVS is bad then? I'm not sure if I understand your last line.
Do you have any other current suspicions DFaraday?

[Scotty]

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

You've made a few solid checkable remarks, but I don't think it proves much since a) Pam can't share with the thread what she learns, and b) we don't even know if Pam is alive, or will be by the time this Eternal Night Phase ends.

But for sportsmanship's sake:

Why did you vote immediately?
Were you aware of the day-ending ability?

I actually would also like the answer to this question, however, SVS. TH asked it too.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

A few thoughts/questions on the situation:

~ It would not be idiotic for a baddie to do this. To call attention to oneself is not a significant sacrifice to eliminate a beloved princess role with a significantly shortened day phase (amounting essentially to four straight night phases as DFaraday said). "Attention" doesn't mean anything at all if the baddie doesn't get lynched, and in this scenario -- getting lynched wouldn't even be a bad trade-off. In a 7:2 town:scum ratio (I have no idea what this game's ratio is, call that a baseline), it'd be right around breaking even. So, worst-case scenario they break even, and best-case they get ahead. It's a smart move, not a stupid one.

~ I don't think DrumBeats looks bad at all. He looks like a very confident townie, perhaps more confident than he should be. I don't struggle to attribute that confidence to the significance of the event and S~V~S relationship with that event. There's no logical necessity to associate his confidence with a baddie ploy.

~ I wish we'd stop basing everything around the cot-damned lie detector role. That's not center of the cot-damned universe cot damnit.

~ A better question to ask than "is this a good move for the baddies?" would be "is S~V~S the type of player who would make this move?" This is one I don't really have an answer to, but those who have known S~V~S the longest might. Does she have a history for making big plays like this, for badding around in plain sight, for loud gambits? These are not absurd notions; a ton of people really do play this way. Hi MacDougall.

~ What to people think of the relationship between Quin's Day 2 vote for S~V~S and S~V~S's Day 3 vote for Quin? They were nearly identical in timing and in being motivated by something other than suspicion.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

One thing Scotty said which I do think is valid is that we shouldn't spend the entirety of the Eternal Night debating S~V~S. Whether she's good or bad, the baddie team(s) would love nothing more than for us to waste all of this time on one player. We should be treating this time like a day phase in every regard except the ability to place votes.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Another thought:

~ The advantage gained for the baddies in this situation is diminished some if there are multiple baddie teams (assuming the Syndicate norm for alternating night kills is maintained). The baddies in general enjoy an advantage, but the individual teams not as much. Indeed they might threaten one another additionally in this situation. I think the leetic/Elohcin kills might be a sign of multiple baddie teams -- I thought they both leaned toward the side of badness, perhaps even as team mates.

[Scotty]

A few thoughts/questions on the situation:

~ It would not be idiotic for a baddie to do this. To call attention to oneself is not a significant sacrifice to eliminate a beloved princess role with a significantly shortened day phase (amounting essentially to four straight night phases as DFaraday said). "Attention" doesn't mean anything at all if the baddie doesn't get lynched, and in this scenario -- getting lynched wouldn't even be a bad trade-off. In a 7:2 town:scum ratio (I have no idea what this game's ratio is, call that a baseline), it'd be right around breaking even. So, worst-case scenario they break even, and best-case they get ahead. It's a smart move, not a stupid one.

~ I don't think DrumBeats looks bad at all. He looks like a very confident townie, perhaps more confident than he should be. I don't struggle to attribute that confidence to the significance of the event and S~V~S relationship with that event. There's no logical necessity to associate his confidence with a baddie ploy.

~ I wish we'd stop basing everything around the cot-damned lie detector role. That's not center of the cot-damned universe cot damnit.

~ A better question to ask than "is this a good move for the baddies?" would be "is S~V~S the type of player who would make this move?" This is one I don't really have an answer to, but those who have known S~V~S the longest might. Does she have a history for making big plays like this, for badding around in plain sight, for loud gambits? These are not absurd notions; a ton of people really do play this way. Hi MacDougall.

~ What to people think of the relationship between Quin's Day 2 vote for S~V~S and S~V~S's Day 3 vote for Quin? They were nearly identical in timing and in being motivated by something other than suspicion.

I think DB jumping on SVS right out of the gate is opportunism. I acknowledge that literally anyone could have done it, but his doing so and his continual push that she is definitely bad has me thinking the opposite.

As for Quin's/SVS vote parallel's, I would definitely like SVS to answer that as I've said.

[DrumBeats]

Okee DB, look:

@ Scotty - Huge assumption jumps that Leetic was mafia, considering his actions made him the biggest roll of a dice alignment out there. You're willing to make assumptions based upon but not upon SVS, who is so clearly behind the Quin death. Also, I'm just saying, if I were mafia and Leetic was as well, I would've lynches Leetic for the civ cred. If a teammate was being that useless, I would've driven the lynch myself. It makes more sense for mafia to push a lynch on a mafia Leetic, because they could get some use out if him in the form of civ cred. You seem awful sure he was mafia to start making suspicions based on that. Hmm...

@ SVS Yeah, I can say that if I were mafia I would 100% do that. It would buy my team two night phases, and I could just give that same bullshit argument that you are giving right now and try to walk away clean. Risky? Yes. But it is moderate-risk-high-reward. Let's think about the concrete facts for a second:

-Mafia knew Quin was civ
-Mafia knew that Quin had no reason to lie about the advantage the mafia would get for lynching him
-Mafia knew that Quin's vote on SVS appeared to be forced yesterday. Who knows if it was or not (I would assume so since why would Quin lie about it)
- Mafia had to know that Merdith's forced votes would not count if the players didn't submit them by EoD.

Let's talk about what these mean, specifically the last two.

Knowing that Quin appeared to have a vote forced is huge because it lets SVS walk away from the whole thing, looking better than before. If the vote forcing role was mafia, they would have control over it and could have:
Not used it so nobody could cc forced vote.
Used it on ScumVS so if she said the vote was forced, Pams lie detector would clear her.
Used it on SVillagerS and hoped she voted early enough for them to lock it.
Number 2 on that list seems the most likely to me personally. Given the information available it was too easy for SVS to walk away clean, as you guys are letting her do now.

Next we move onto how Meredith didn't play into this situation. I clarified with Dom after this event occurred and Merediths votes were not factored into the lynch, since they had not occurred yet, though being forced votes, I would assume they are active at EoD no matter what in case the inactive player refuses to vote. But the mafia clearly did not make the assumption that Merediths votes would get in the way before ending the day, evident by how quick it happened. This leads me to believe that the plan was premeditated, in which case SVS would need to be mafia. The scum team wouldn't have been able to rely on a forced vote coming so early, and especially from SVS who as Sorsha pointed out has voiced opinions on EoD forced vote posting, which directly contradict what she has done now.

Tl;dr: SVS is mafia, and as mafia I would have 100% done the same thing

So far for the mafia team I'm thinking:
SVS
Scotty
Matt

At least, Scotty's assumption that Leetic is mafia makes me feel like Leetic might have been, assuming I am right about Scotty.

First of all, why include all these if/then statements of you being mafia? This is WIFOM and not helpful. I don't think I've ever seen you as mafia, and I heard from someone in a past game (Epi I think) that metas are crap because people can easily take advantage of a perception. O don't know what you would do as mafia, and you telling me about it doesn't make it any more true.

'If I were mafia, I'd have smothered 5 babies with pillows by now' -Anyone, or no one, it doesn't matter

Now see, you're inferring SVS is bad from basic assumptions as well. If you're going to invalidate my claim that leetic is mafia based on assumptions, how can you use the same sort of logic to claim that SVS is mafia? The facts are not all there, despite the angle you're opining.

How could mafia definitely have known this? He could have certainly been baiting.

This statement is invalid. 'I Believe, based on assumptions and inferences from my own logic, therefore it IS true.' This is akin to saying "I think milk tastes like snot, therefore it is snot.

So you're agreeing with me that leetic can be assumed mafia? And that makes me bad?


You came out swinging for SVS' head not 20 minutes after the day ended early. This was your first post:

WHOA WHOA WTF.

What I gather from this:

One of Eloh/Leetic was the Maf kill; my bet is on Eloh because Leetic wouldve been an easy mislynch. Leetic was likely the work of Andy the vigilante, who now cannot take over Michaels power as manager.

SVS voted Quin and insta-locked it. SVS had to have had info that Quin was Holly as well as access to a lynch ender through another corporate role, hence it locking.

Idk am I tunnel-visioning this by assuming SVS is confirmed mafia now? I can't think of any other explanation for how shit just went down.

You assume Elo is mafia, for no good reason other than leetic was an "easy mislynch". A mislynch that you yourself could get behind, as I talked about in my last post.
You immediately throw a grenade at SVS, with the insight that she "HAD to have had info". Though you ASSUME she is confirmed mafia.


Literally everything you're throwing down at SVS is an assumption veiled as an absolute and I see right through it.

SVS's question was "Would ANY of you have done that knowingly?". I answered that question, so that is how it is relevant.

Your leetic suspicion is based off of two things:
1) Inactivity
2) One hypocritical statement

It is not a solid case at all so to instantly jump to the conclusion that leetic is mafia is unfounded. SVS on the other hand, immediately voted for Quin, the day ended and now we have two night phases. How is that at all comparable to your roll of the dice assumption that leetic was mafia?

Also should be noted that I am making a case against a player that is active in the game right now. My "assumptions" are me making my case since everybody is trying to let SVS get away with this. Am I being aggressive about it? Hell yeah I am, because up until DFaraday posted, nobody else was seeing how sketchy this is. You made a case on me, based on the assumption that dead leetic is mafia. Two COMPLETELY different things.

They would know that Quin is not aligned with them, which would make it clear that he was not just lying to save himself from a lynch.

Did I say it was 100% true? I said "This leads me to believe". It's called MAKING A CASE. I'm being aggressive about it since you guys want to just let SVS take three civvies down and get away clean.

Are you even reading the words I'm posting bro? I said that your assumption Leetic was mafia made me feel like he MIGHT be mafia, if I am right about you being mafia.

Again, are you even reading the words I'm posting. Quit misrepresenting them. I said Eloh was likely the mafia KILL. Not Eloh was mafia. I believe that to be the more likely case than that leetic was killed by the mafia, because leetic would have been an easy mislynch for them. Don't twist my words.

Me trying to make sense of the situation right there. Based on this situation, I am pretty sure of SVS being mafia, and if I'm presenting it as an absolute, it is because I'm frustrated as hell seeing so many people all but clear her right now. There's no basis for it. The situation was sketchy. The vote timing was sketchy. SVS's response to the situation is sketchy.

I'm currently at about 90-95% sure SVS is mafia, 50-60 % sure Scotty is, and 45-50% sure Matt is.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I think DB jumping on SVS right out of the gate is opportunism. I acknowledge that literally anyone could have done it, but his doing so and his continual push that she is definitely bad has me thinking the opposite.

I'll let DB answer to the accusation of opportunism, as well as the other things you've asserted. I'll propose a separate point:

I see culture clash. A few Syndicateers see this and their instinctive reaction is "why the eff would a baddie ever do this?"

That's not my reaction at all. I was brought up elsewhere. DB was brought up elsewhere, and Bulbagarden's games are a lot more like RYM's than they are like The Syndicate's. I think that breeds a certain type of player base, and where he comes from I bet this stuff isn't so absurd as some people here seem to think it is. On RYM this wouldn't even be a surprising gambit, it'd be ordinary.

[DrumBeats]

A few thoughts/questions on the situation:

~ It would not be idiotic for a baddie to do this. To call attention to oneself is not a significant sacrifice to eliminate a beloved princess role with a significantly shortened day phase (amounting essentially to four straight night phases as DFaraday said). "Attention" doesn't mean anything at all if the baddie doesn't get lynched, and in this scenario -- getting lynched wouldn't even be a bad trade-off. In a 7:2 town:scum ratio (I have no idea what this game's ratio is, call that a baseline), it'd be right around breaking even. So, worst-case scenario they break even, and best-case they get ahead. It's a smart move, not a stupid one.

~ I don't think DrumBeats looks bad at all. He looks like a very confident townie, perhaps more confident than he should be. I don't struggle to attribute that confidence to the significance of the event and S~V~S relationship with that event. There's no logical necessity to associate his confidence with a baddie ploy.

~ I wish we'd stop basing everything around the cot-damned lie detector role. That's not center of the cot-damned universe cot damnit.

~ A better question to ask than "is this a good move for the baddies?" would be "is S~V~S the type of player who would make this move?" This is one I don't really have an answer to, but those who have known S~V~S the longest might. Does she have a history for making big plays like this, for badding around in plain sight, for loud gambits? These are not absurd notions; a ton of people really do play this way. Hi MacDougall.

~ What to people think of the relationship between Quin's Day 2 vote for S~V~S and S~V~S's Day 3 vote for Quin? They were nearly identical in timing and in being motivated by something other than suspicion.

Agreed on most of the above. I've got no idea about if this is within SVS's meta - but the primary civilian forced vote theory is in direct contradiction with it according to the quote that Sorsha brought up. For the last question, I honestly do not see why a person with a vote forcing role would force Quin to vote SVS and then force SVS to vote Quin. I just don't see a reason.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Agreed on most of the above. I've got no idea about if this is within SVS's meta - but the primary civilian forced vote theory is in direct contradiction with it according to the quote that Sorsha brought up. For the last question, I honestly do not see why a person with a vote forcing role would force Quin to vote SVS and then force SVS to vote Quin. I just don't see a reason.

This is my concern -- it might not be as simple as a forced vote. There seemed to be some degree of communication between them, perhaps even BTSC. They both placed those votes with a tone of nonchalance, neither of them was bothered by other doing so, and they both did it immediately upon the start of a day phase. Like I've said, I don't know what this might mean, but it seems like it has to mean something.

I would suggest that S~V~S might have placed her Quin vote immediately just to make it look like this relationship exists, but Quin reacted to her vote with a joke -- like he wasn't bothered by it at all.

[DrumBeats]

A few thoughts/questions on the situation:

~ It would not be idiotic for a baddie to do this. To call attention to oneself is not a significant sacrifice to eliminate a beloved princess role with a significantly shortened day phase (amounting essentially to four straight night phases as DFaraday said). "Attention" doesn't mean anything at all if the baddie doesn't get lynched, and in this scenario -- getting lynched wouldn't even be a bad trade-off. In a 7:2 town:scum ratio (I have no idea what this game's ratio is, call that a baseline), it'd be right around breaking even. So, worst-case scenario they break even, and best-case they get ahead. It's a smart move, not a stupid one.

~ I don't think DrumBeats looks bad at all. He looks like a very confident townie, perhaps more confident than he should be. I don't struggle to attribute that confidence to the significance of the event and S~V~S relationship with that event. There's no logical necessity to associate his confidence with a baddie ploy.

~ I wish we'd stop basing everything around the cot-damned lie detector role. That's not center of the cot-damned universe cot damnit.

~ A better question to ask than "is this a good move for the baddies?" would be "is S~V~S the type of player who would make this move?" This is one I don't really have an answer to, but those who have known S~V~S the longest might. Does she have a history for making big plays like this, for badding around in plain sight, for loud gambits? These are not absurd notions; a ton of people really do play this way. Hi MacDougall.

~ What to people think of the relationship between Quin's Day 2 vote for S~V~S and S~V~S's Day 3 vote for Quin? They were nearly identical in timing and in being motivated by something other than suspicion.

I think DB jumping on SVS right out of the gate is opportunism. I acknowledge that literally anyone could have done it, but his doing so and his continual push that she is definitely bad has me thinking the opposite.

As for Quin's/SVS vote parallel's, I would definitely like SVS to answer that as I've said.

It's the only logical conclusion I see with the evidence + SVS's behavior. I'm confident as hell about it and won't back down. If you want to call it opportunism, go ahead, but I find the fact that you won't consider SVS as possible mafia disturbing.

[DrumBeats]

I am appalled that anyone thinks I am enough of an idiot to do this. I mean, I can be an idiot, but I am a player whose best use to a bad team is via manipulation & talking in thread, not out of self sacrifice. But whatevs, if you want to lynch me Drum, go for it. You will be dissappointed if you really expect me to flip bad.

Also, re the use of the word "forced"; has it occurred to you that I am not allowed to directly say I was targeted?

What other factual checkable statement would you like me to make?

Linki @Faraday, what do you think of my factual remarks? We have 2 nights in a row for Pam to check me. What factual questions would you like to ask me?

You've made a few solid checkable remarks, but I don't think it proves much since a) Pam can't share with the thread what she learns, and b) we don't even know if Pam is alive, or will be by the time this Eternal Night Phase ends.

But for sportsmanship's sake:

Why did you vote immediately?
Were you aware of the day-ending ability?

I actually would also like the answer to this question, however, SVS. TH asked it too.

I would also like the answer to this question. It's been asked a lot, and SVS has never provided an answer on it.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Another thought, this one perhaps in S~V~S's favor:

She placed her Quin vote and vacated the premises. I don't think this would be an unreasonable baddie gambit, but it would be unusual for a baddie to leave the game thread knowing what was about to happen. I'd expect that baddie to anticipate the spotlight being centered directly upon her and have her fists up and ready to square off with the immediate backlash. S~V~S leaving might be a sign that she didn't realize what was coming.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Maybe we should do some live GTH reads.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Updating this sucker for TH and juliets.

Post history links are necessary for my survival.

bea
birdwithteeth11
Bullzeye / JaggedJimmyJay
Cobalt / indiglo
DFaraday
DrumBeats
Elohcin
Enrique
Epignosis
fingersplints
Goldy / espers
insertnamehere
leetic
LoRab
Matt
Quin
Scotty
Serge
sig / Turnip Head
Sorsha
Spacedaisy
S~V~S
timmer
Zeus / juliets

[DrumBeats]

Maybe we should do some live GTH reads.

I would be down. Might want to wait for more people to be around though, so its not just the two of us providing them again.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Agreed. Even if a good opportunity strikes when I'm not here, this needs to happen -- someone else should be prepared to take lead. Periods of heightened controversy are the best times to do this. Force everyone to stop darting their eyes every which way and take stances.

[Turnip Head]

I can only say what I would do if I was in this position. For now I'm going to assume there is only one baddie team because it says they kill every night, and most two-mafia setups will rotate the kill. The other variables:

• I am a baddie with the power to end at least one Day phase early.
• I may or may not know Quin's role and the benefit it would bring me by lynching him.
• There were two deaths on Night 2, indicating that Andy has either used his one-time ability or there is another third party killer.
• It is Day 3 in a 30 (?) player game.

Given all this, I would absolutely not vote early, end the Day early, in order to take out 2 civilians. Why?

I can feel reasonably safe that my power will not get taken out at Night, if Andy has no more kills left.

I can feel reasonably confident that Quin will not be killed at Night because I am on the only baddie team.

That means that I can use this ability any time during the game, and am in no rush to sacrifice myself to use it this early.

I can save my power for much later in the game when it will cause a bigger tempo swing, perhaps even sealing a victory for my team before the civilians have a chance to crucify me.

Using this power now indicates that I do not feel the need to use it defensively, ergo no one on my team is in danger of being lynched soon... but this will absolutely change if I use this ability in this way, and now I've wasted my only chance to prevent it.




The only time I would use this power on Day 3 is if I can use it more than once, or if, in using it, I will implicate players who are not on my team.

This is not SVS's first rodeo, and she knows how powerful such an ability is. While lynching Quin eventually is a priority for the baddies, this was the least impactful way they could use this ability, and that's not her style.

I would argue that implicating SVS in the lynch is a much better gambit than SVS implicating herself.