Romance of the Three Kingdoms [ENDGAME]

[Matahari]

So was there a night kill attempt?

3 nights, no vote. What's up?

little bro had open heart surgery for the second time in a year.

oh no, that's awful! I hope he'll be better soon.

[MacDougall]

What's not to trust?

[Phoebe Buffay]

What's not to trust?

The sound of your name causes you to perspire, and the odor carries a faint scent of the Nanman. In my meditations I was stung by the memory of the treacherous rodent spirit animal of the nameless one, and of your own inaction in pursuit of his execution. Remind us as you might of the good doctor and your part in his end, but know that the hourglass has turned over and over since that day. Let free your words of innocence or be judged by nature.

[indiglo]

I plan to begin my reading just a bit tonight, and then do more tomorrow due to "time" and "scheduling".


Anyway, I have to ask, (since I'm new here) when did this determination to get rid of all the inactives take such a firm hold on everyone's thinking? I understand that the remaining Yellow, or Indy with the Yellow NK seems to be inactive, but there is only 1 (or 2) of them, while the Nan have stayed active, and there are more of them remaining? Yet no one seems to be looking for them? Everyone just seems to plow ahead on the inactives. I'm genuinely curious here, not judging.

[indiglo]

Reading MetalMarsh...

Here's a pattern I noticed. (Which, JJJ picked up on straight away, earning himself a NK from the Nan)

MM talked to Wilgy (his Nan teammate) a LOT in the thread. In fact, in many of MM's posts he would refer to Wilgy and 1 other player. For example (I am just posting a brief sampling, the patterns I noticed happened over a large number of MM's posts, and multiple times, but to save space and time I'm keeping this post as brief as I can):

I give my votes to DrWilgy and JaggedJimmyJay, in hopes they will perform as they did in Talking Heads mafia.

I'm leaving for a camping trip soon. I'll be back on Wednesday. Peace!

I'm voting for DrWilgy and Turnip Head in the hopes that one of them will end up dueling me. Oh, and the day ends in 75 minutes.

Catch you all later.

In both these, he talked about Wilgy and first JJJ and then TH. What do JJJ and TH both have in common? They were NKed by Nan. So MM likes to talk about his teammates, and his NK targets this game, apparently.


He did make a few posts that actually didn't mention Wilgy, like this one:

You have a 71% chance of being correct about a civilian read.
You have a 29% chance of being correct about a non-civilian read.

Therefore, civilian reads are more likely to be accurate.

Oh lord, turns out I misunderstood the whole point that person was making. And here as well, I thought you were trying to convince me to make wild guesses by giving me that proportion.

I thought they basically had said that civilians are more likely to read scum correctly than scum, which is pretty obvious and facepalmed.

I guess I should go to sleep.

Well there you go. Have a good rest.

He also had a few posts going back and forth with Scotty where he did NOT mention Wilgy. That makes me think that neither Jan nor Scotty are teammates with MM, because he broke his usual pattern of mentioning a teammate, and a NK target.



Then, there's this post, which kind of sticks out like a sore thumb to me:

I should just start playing like MM. He has more fun than I do.

Are you not having fun?

Stay determined friend.

Oh I also want to hear more from Wilgy. I feel like he's usually a lot more active than this, but I keep forgetting he's even in this game and I don't think that's a good sign. Likewise with sig, to a slightly lesser extent.

How could you forget about me LoRab? I was at work and had dnd night, but never left...

LoRab hasn't posted yet DrWilgy. Does that bother you?

Here's why it sticks out like a sore thumb: he sticks to his pattern of mentioning Wilgy and a NK target (JJJ) but he also mentions nutella and LoRab in the same post. Neither of which has been NKed by Nan. That's what leaves me scratching my head. Anytime he's mentioned Wilgy (which was a LOT) it was also in a post with someone the Nan NKed. Then, he has some interactions in other posts with people I deem non-teammates, due to his pattern. Then, he has this - fits the pattern, but also has extra names. Are those extra names additional teammates? I can't know, but it definitely piques my interest.

Makes me want to do a read on both nutella and LoRab. Thoughts?

For now, I will move on to Wilgy, the other known Nan.

[indiglo]

Reading Wilgy was quick. And hoooo-boy did these couple of posts stick out like a glaring, flashing, emergency beacon of some sort (after having read MM's posts, that is):

Oh I also want to hear more from Wilgy. I feel like he's usually a lot more active than this, but I keep forgetting he's even in this game and I don't think that's a good sign. Likewise with sig, to a slightly lesser extent.

How could you forget about me LoRab? I was at work and had dnd night, but never left...

Oh I also want to hear more from Wilgy. I feel like he's usually a lot more active than this, but I keep forgetting he's even in this game and I don't think that's a good sign. Likewise with sig, to a slightly lesser extent.

How could you forget about me LoRab? I was at work and had dnd night, but never left...

wat

It's like you just woke up from a bad dream at precisely the time someone talks about you

Marmot friend told me in btsc that I was being talked about.

Im very suspicious of Lorab now that you mention it Marmot friend!

Look at the names involved here: Marmot, Wilgy, LoRab, nutella... That seems likely an awfully big coincidence to me.

Now I am even MORE interested in doing a read on LoRab and nutella. Any thoughts? Ideas?

[indiglo]

More reading will have to wait until tomorrow. Brain is tired.

[Quin]

I'm looking at Simon and nijuu right now, and I'm not really garnering (is that the right word?) anything from their posts.

So instead, let's discuss their voting histories.

Simon

On Day 1, he voted 3J along with MacDougall, Dom and Bubblei. He was alone in doing so on Day 2. I need to read into the context behind these decisions. More to the point, 3J was killed night 2. All of 3J's votes while he was alive were for confirmed civs (besides Scotty for prefect), so I imagine if 3J were being treated as a normal civ (or at least, a normal 'not on the same team as the one who killed him'), he wouldn't be topping the priority list for a night kill. From my experience playing with him, I imagine that being 3J, baddies are always going to put a target on his back whether he's on the right track with his reads or not. I'll read into the argument against 3J and decide whether I think there's something there or not. Nobody died on Night 1 even though we know that the nanman were in part active, so I think that was a game mechanic and not activity based - and that also means that Night 2 was the earliest night kills could be submitted. I think this is more in favor to the four I mentioned, because it would be much easier to night kill 3J than to kill him in a duel, so putting votes on him seems like a pointless endeavor.

I don't have anything specific to say about Simon past this point, but he self-votes often which tells me he's very likely a warrior, and probably not a Yellow Turban.

A question for Simon - why did you vote MP?



I'll look at nijuu later. I had a million thoughts about what could be and what couldnt be just with this and I want a break

[Quin]

Also, something that people probably already have figured out for themselves, but just in case:

We'll know when we can deliberate whether we've exhausted the Yellow Turban kill or not. Right now we cannot, because we haven't lynched Dong Zhuo. The fact that the YT kill has stopped makes me think one of two (three, including a tinfoil) things:

1) The final YT is inactive
2) The final YT is dead but Dong Zhuo is inactive

A tinfoil, assuming the Dong Zhuo kill will be named as such in the night posts:
3) Dong Zhuo has inherited the kill, but is withholding their kill to make us continue looking for YT teammates.

[Quin]

Reading MetalMarsh...

Here's a pattern I noticed. (Which, JJJ picked up on straight away, earning himself a NK from the Nan)

MM talked to Wilgy (his Nan teammate) a LOT in the thread. In fact, in many of MM's posts he would refer to Wilgy and 1 other player. For example (I am just posting a brief sampling, the patterns I noticed happened over a large number of MM's posts, and multiple times, but to save space and time I'm keeping this post as brief as I can):

I give my votes to DrWilgy and JaggedJimmyJay, in hopes they will perform as they did in Talking Heads mafia.

I'm leaving for a camping trip soon. I'll be back on Wednesday. Peace!

I'm voting for DrWilgy and Turnip Head in the hopes that one of them will end up dueling me. Oh, and the day ends in 75 minutes.

Catch you all later.

In both these, he talked about Wilgy and first JJJ and then TH. What do JJJ and TH both have in common? They were NKed by Nan. So MM likes to talk about his teammates, and his NK targets this game, apparently.


He did make a few posts that actually didn't mention Wilgy, like this one:

You have a 71% chance of being correct about a civilian read.
You have a 29% chance of being correct about a non-civilian read.

Therefore, civilian reads are more likely to be accurate.

Oh lord, turns out I misunderstood the whole point that person was making. And here as well, I thought you were trying to convince me to make wild guesses by giving me that proportion.

I thought they basically had said that civilians are more likely to read scum correctly than scum, which is pretty obvious and facepalmed.

I guess I should go to sleep.

Well there you go. Have a good rest.

He also had a few posts going back and forth with Scotty where he did NOT mention Wilgy. That makes me think that neither Jan nor Scotty are teammates with MM, because he broke his usual pattern of mentioning a teammate, and a NK target.



Then, there's this post, which kind of sticks out like a sore thumb to me:

I should just start playing like MM. He has more fun than I do.

Are you not having fun?

Stay determined friend.

Oh I also want to hear more from Wilgy. I feel like he's usually a lot more active than this, but I keep forgetting he's even in this game and I don't think that's a good sign. Likewise with sig, to a slightly lesser extent.

How could you forget about me LoRab? I was at work and had dnd night, but never left...

LoRab hasn't posted yet DrWilgy. Does that bother you?

Here's why it sticks out like a sore thumb: he sticks to his pattern of mentioning Wilgy and a NK target (JJJ) but he also mentions nutella and LoRab in the same post. Neither of which has been NKed by Nan. That's what leaves me scratching my head. Anytime he's mentioned Wilgy (which was a LOT) it was also in a post with someone the Nan NKed. Then, he has some interactions in other posts with people I deem non-teammates, due to his pattern. Then, he has this - fits the pattern, but also has extra names. Are those extra names additional teammates? I can't know, but it definitely piques my interest.

Makes me want to do a read on both nutella and LoRab. Thoughts?

For now, I will move on to Wilgy, the other known Nan.

I came to a similar conclusion in an earlier post, but without LoRab because I'm 99 percent sure he just got the two names mixed up and the dialogue just went in that direction. I also mentioned that sig looks bad in my analysis

[MacDougall]

What's not to trust?

The sound of your name causes you to perspire, and the odor carries a faint scent of the Nanman. In my meditations I was stung by the memory of the treacherous rodent spirit animal of the nameless one, and of your own inaction in pursuit of his execution. Remind us as you might of the good doctor and your part in his end, but know that the hourglass has turned over and over since that day. Let free your words of innocence or be judged by nature.

I know you aren't accusing me of only responding because someone mentioned my name. I ain't about that life. I have been on a vision quest for the past few days in the forest with no contact with the outside world.

My inaction in pursuit of Metalmarsh's lynch was because the pursuit was illogical. I was wrong about it. Big deal. Being wrong doesn't make me bad.

I'm not a mafia player but if you want me to duel that's okay because I ain't about this life.

[nutella]

Indi I'm not sure what you mean about MM "mentioning" me when he quoted a post by Wilgy quoting me and mis-identifying me as Lorab. But I was very confused about those two mentions of Lorab from Wilgy as well. She actually is on my radar as potential Nanman and I'd be happy to throw a vote her way today. What should become clear to you though, and I've pointed this out many times but I know you haven't read much yet, is that my voting record and behavior during the first couple days regarding the Wilgy and MM lynches should prove to you that I'm not their teammate.

[MacDougall]

So the indie who cannot be night killed hasn't been lynched therefore is alive therefore either the last YT or he himself is alive and inactive.

[Phoebe Buffay]

I'm not a mafia player but if you want me to duel that's okay because I ain't about this life.

I am grateful for your testimony. It is heard. There are those among us who do not honor the dead. They bring dishonor instead by mimicking those lost to us, they who do not let their words free. Silence is not virtuous when the forces of evil seek our destruction. The Yellow Turban remaining could be any such wordless shadow.

Those who act are fewer in number, and it is they who can be considered for Nanman treachery. The jar is wise to seek wisdom here. Scour the scrolls of yesteryear and recall the demonstrations of those who would speak with and speak of our enemies. The options are few, and the spirits continue to pass to the ether.

[Phoebe Buffay]

You who have rejected your kinship with nature. I would still speak with you. I would recall an earlier inquiry with the hope that you might answer.

Humour me. If I am bad, am I a Nanman or a Turban? Am I teammates with the guy I voted on day 1 who got lynched and did I fake being silenced for an entire day or am I teammates with the guy who I called out early game and who had an aneurysm about my needling him?

Please child, speak with me for a moment. You have presented a riddle which remains unsolved, and I am inspired to make an attempt. Your conflict with pictures in motion is the purest expression of your wu wei. It is to be lauded; it is to be respected. My thoughts drift to the Nanman, those who would bring destruction upon us, those not in concert with pictures in motion. I would ask that you speak of your actions in the second day, that which saw the rodent spirit animal of the nameless one vanquished despite your protestations. You showed fear of deception by the dark doctor, that his engagement with the rodent spirit animal is not something to be perceived as truth. My heart aches, as I cannot in true faith state that your words were in error. You are a renown authority in these matters, and it is to be expected that your expertise would lead you against the rodent. Please speak to me of your mistake, and allow me to know it as a mistake.

[MacDougall]

What's not to trust?

The sound of your name causes you to perspire, and the odor carries a faint scent of the Nanman. In my meditations I was stung by the memory of the treacherous rodent spirit animal of the nameless one, and of your own inaction in pursuit of his execution. Remind us as you might of the good doctor and your part in his end, but know that the hourglass has turned over and over since that day. Let free your words of innocence or be judged by nature.

My inaction in pursuit of Metalmarsh's lynch was because the pursuit was illogical. I was wrong about it. Big deal. Being wrong doesn't make me bad.

[Phoebe Buffay]

This brief response does not satiate my desire to understand. To be wrong is no evil, but nor is it virtuous. I wish to know the depth of your mistake, or I cannot know it as a mistake.

[MacDougall]

Since the day Metalmarsh perished and was found to be a rebel I have harboured regret. That I came so close to enabling one capable of such vile evil to avoid the kiss of steel and the justice therein. I have lost faith in myself. All that remains is the husk of a man once full of jubilance. A husk filled with despair, doubt and dread. All I can do to numb the pain is research dank memes. Harambe memes are a favourite.

[DFaraday]

I plan to begin my reading just a bit tonight, and then do more tomorrow due to "time" and "scheduling".


Anyway, I have to ask, (since I'm new here) when did this determination to get rid of all the inactives take such a firm hold on everyone's thinking? I understand that the remaining Yellow, or Indy with the Yellow NK seems to be inactive, but there is only 1 (or 2) of them, while the Nan have stayed active, and there are more of them remaining? Yet no one seems to be looking for them? Everyone just seems to plow ahead on the inactives. I'm genuinely curious here, not judging.

I've suspected Lorab as one for days, but until now, nobody has seemed to consider her as a viable lynch option. But I think people are focusing on the YTs because we seem closer to figuring out who the last one is, and we need them dead as well.

[DFaraday]

What exactly is the case on Mac? He voted for Wilgy, which makes it unlikely he's Nanman, and his feud with MP early on felt too real to be staged, so he's probably not YT.

[Epignosis]

Aragorn is replacing Jan.

[indiglo]

I came to a similar conclusion in an earlier post, but without LoRab because I'm 99 percent sure he just got the two names mixed up and the dialogue just went in that direction. I also mentioned that sig looks bad in my analysis

So you feel nutella is more likely their Nan teammate over LoRab? Sorry, just trying to clarify.

And you felt sig was also their Nan teammate? Sorry, I haven't yet read your analysis, so I may be getting what you said confused. Fortunately for me, I don't have to waste my time analyzing sig, because I know the role.

[indiglo]

Welcome Aragorn! I only just subbed in as well, so I feel your confusion and pain.

A couple tidbits that were shared with me to help me get my feet under me - to get an overview of all the day and night results, search Epi's in topic posts.

After that, I am currently working on reading all those who were killed and revealed baddies during the day posts to see what relationships I can find, so far, I feel like that's going pretty well.

Any questions, just ask!

[DFaraday]

Aragorn is replacing Jan.

[indiglo]

Reading LoRab...


So far, every single suspicion she's harped on has either been Nked by the Nan or civ (lost a duel and was revealed to be civ).

Examples:
- Timmer, lost duel day 3, Shu Warrior
(Here's a note of interest, LoRab felt there was a baddie link between Timmer and TH, yet when Timmer died as a proven civ, she didn't drop her suspicion of TH)
- TH, Nked night 4 by Nan
- Glorf, NKed night 5 by Nan
- TheCapsFan, lost duel day 6, Shu Warrior


That's a pretty bad track record, and makes me wonder if the few other people she's suspected are likely to be civ also.
Other suspects she's mentioned:
- Mac

She also got into it a bit with nutella, and made several rather long posts arguing with her. But then to clarify, she told nutella this:

I mean, I would be surprised if nobody on the team participated, but let's just take Night 1 -- missed PMs happen, and again, there were enough inactive players at that point that I could see a three-person team missing their night PM. I'm not saying it's necessarily the most likely explanation and I didn't really agree with Glorf when he suggested it, but it's not exactly improbable either and I think you're being pretty harsh on him.

Linki: Fair point, yeah, I guess Epi wouldn't let a team be made up of only inactives (though there might be a couple players who have been inactive this game that he might not have foreseen as such)

You literally asked for posts showing that he had posted about inactives more than once. I responded by posting examples. You aren now saying I am being harsh. I think you are being disingenuous.

I don't suspect you for it (yet), but I also don't see you as being fully fair in your assessment.

And, sure, disagree with me. But enough with the subtle not quite accusing me but sort of saying you think I'm bad. If you think I'm bad. Say so. If you don't, quit with the quasi-accusations. Either way, I'm civ. But I'm not sure what your'e trying to get at with this whole line of whatever.

So, since she doesn't fully suspect nutella, I'm not sure if nutella falls into the "civ LoRab suspects" category just yet, but their back and forth wasn't warm and fuzzy, so I'm less convinced of a teammate relationship there right now.



LoRab also made a pretty detailed post talking about the inner workings of the baddie NK here

This all makes LoRab look pretty bad to me, and makes Mac look pretty good. Still leaves nutella a "maybe" in my book, but it's a better look than what I thought after just having read MM and Wilgy. I think LoRab's a good vote option today for me.

[Aragorn]

Welcome Aragorn! I only just subbed in as well, so I feel your confusion and pain.

A couple tidbits that were shared with me to help me get my feet under me - to get an overview of all the day and night results, search Epi's in topic posts.

After that, I am currently working on reading all those who were killed and revealed baddies during the day posts to see what relationships I can find, so far, I feel like that's going pretty well.

Any questions, just ask!

Thanks!

I'm going to try and catch up as much as I can before I start engaging properly.

[indiglo]

Ok, Yellow Team read completed.

The only player that MP and Daisy both mentioned was Boomslang. Of course, Daisy didn't have very many posts, and MP talked about a TON of players. Most of what I got out of MP's posts were players I'm pretty sure aren't his teammates. But Boomslang was mentioned by both of them.

Here's what they both said about him:

From Day 4

Well, I took time to read Boomslang before I leave and I get a civ vibe there. I would even venture so far to say I trust him atm.

From Day 1

I would be willing to throw out the following slight town GTHs:

Boomslang
Dragon D. Luffy
JaggedJimmyJay
Quin
Turnip Head

Could change at the drop of a hat, but so far I'm feeling OK at what they've brought to this thread so far. Anybody else have some GTHs yet?

This Day 1 post has been snipped for space, read the whole thing here

I'll elaborate briefly upon my slight green reads before I leave for a while, as I was intending to do. I figured someone would just ask me for elaboration and that folks would try to fucking contribute to the discussion instead of jumping on my case, but I should have known better.

Boomslang can be a quiet guy in the thread. I like his activity and engagement so far, and his post here and here regarding the mechanics discussion demonstrated to me that he was willing to engage in the topic, was critically evaluating it, and was willing to throw out his more unconventional thoughts on the matter despite a potential backlash (Linki: seems JJJ and I are on a similar page here). My gut tells me, based on my experience with Boomslang for years RL and in mafia, that if he were bad he may have refrained from posting some of these posts.

....

Now please note that I said all of these are SLIGHT town and they are all tentative. I wanted to get discussion going. If you disagree with any of my reads, it'd be nice if you could engage me and the thread in why you do and not just that you do.

Day 2

Boomslang, nice catch with Jan. Jan's a new player to me and the site, so I've been probably not giving full attention and scrutiny there when reading posts in a hurry, but I should be. I'd say Jan's behavior at least strikes as illogical, but I'm not ready to proclaim it as the most suspicious thing going on right now. A lot of players are acting illogically or in a gimmicky fashion; some of them are getting attention for it (Dom + MM) and others aren't. Not entirely sure why that is.

From Day 3, also snipped for space, full post here

Checking the poll, I see Boomslang has a vote already. I haven't read any posts but I want to make it clear that Boomslang is one of my TOP civilian reads. I don't have a real opinion of Nerolunar. So I don't want to vote either of them.

...

Dom is also one of my TOP civilian reads. Russ is a civilian read. Not voting them either.

...

I'm voting timmer (again) for reasons previously stated, and I suppose I'll throw a second one on Dunny because I want to call attention to him over the 'main' wagons of yesterday (as I stated during Day 2, again, find my previous posts for elaboration).
.

From Day 4

I've had other things to say to people too that I just haven't had the chance to say due to it being Night yesterday and due to being busy. Sorry for forgetting to address this stuff. Rico, I think Boomslang is civilian largely due to gut/tone reads but I'm liking his activity, I also agreed with JJJ's assessment of Boomslang's mechanics proposal, and in his subsequent behavior I've seen genuine attempts to solve the game.

I'll throw up a rainbow at some point, but I shouldn't even be here right now, so I'm leaving again.

I will go look at Boomslang's posts now. I welcome thoughts/comments/etc. on this stuff.

[indiglo]

Also, just realized that INH was a Nanman, so my read on that team was not yet complete!

He was obsessed with both Sorsha and TheCapsFan - Sorsha has since been NKed by the Nan, and CapsFan lost a duel day 6 and was a civ warrior.

He went back and forth a lot with JJJ and Glorf, with a twist of Golden - all of which were NKed by Nan.

On Day 6 (the last day INH was active) he also called out and voted for BWT due to absenteeism.

He quoted Scotty and Quin a fair bit, but I see no pattern to it to indicate anything to me about Quin's alignment.


Not a lot to be gleaned there, as far as I can tell. Too bad.


I must log off for a bit and do things. I will plan to be back before EoD. As it stands right now, I will likely be voting LoRab, while also considering Boomslang. (I do want to read Boomslang first though, because I haven't gotten to that yet, and it's more of a shot in the dark than my LoRab suspicion.) I welcome feedback on all this junk.

[Marmot]

Welcome Aragorn! Bring me back to life plz.

[DrWilgy]

Welcome Aragorn! Bring me back to life plz.

yis

[Aragorn]

Well, I've joined quite late and have not had much time to fully analyse the game yet. There isn't much time before EoD (I think?), and it's quite late here. Honestly, I probably won't be of much help since i don't have solid opinions, however I will place a (random) vote because it might still potentially help us. A bad result is better than no result at all IMO.

I think I can cover up enough ground by the next phase to form a real opinion. Sorry guys.

[Boomslang]

Voting Blooper and Simon real fast before I have to play music. Blooper because I think she's been too blase about the votes that have come her way so far, and Simon because of his consistently stated dueling preference.

[nijuukyugou]

I'm not bad - just super, super lazy. But hey, possibility for prizes!

Voting Lorab and Simon, because it feels right. In my skim, I see those names, and they're still around, yet ignored? For whatever reason? I see talk of an inactive/partial inactive being a likely baddie? Too many questions?

Yeah. So there.

[Phoebe Buffay]

I am called to action.

[DFaraday]

Voting Lorab and Ninja. My suspicions haven't changed.

[Matahari]

Impressive work Indiglo, you are very fast at this. My time away from mafia has made me entirely too trusting.

Your case tying Lorab and Nutella as possible flip sides of MM's coin was good. I read their polite disagreement as just that, and totally forgot that disagreements can be staged. And that voting for your own teammate is sometimes done by mafia, so I could go with a Lorab/Nutella vote. I also think its funny how Nijuu shows up to vote and respond to being mentioned, but not much else. I have been a bit suspicious of Boomslang, for not really contributing much either, but I'm also aware that I used to always suspect him, so I tend to doubt my reactions there.

There have been suspicions of Scotty (from Golden), of Sloonei, Mac, and Quin, but I will study on them later. Today I'll try to decide who, of Nutella, Nijuu, or Boom, to vote with Lorab, and be back in awhile to vote.

[MacDougall]

Voting for Lorab and Simon.

[Quin]

I came to a similar conclusion in an earlier post, but without LoRab because I'm 99 percent sure he just got the two names mixed up and the dialogue just went in that direction. I also mentioned that sig looks bad in my analysis

So you feel nutella is more likely their Nan teammate over LoRab? Sorry, just trying to clarify.

And you felt sig was also their Nan teammate? Sorry, I haven't yet read your analysis, so I may be getting what you said confused. Fortunately for me, I don't have to waste my time analyzing sig, because I know the role.

I think that there's been associations between nutella and the Nanman that make me consider that possibility more than I do LoRab, at the very least. I uncovered something similar about sig.

I don't expect you to defend yourself against my read on sig. Just keep doing what you're doing, because I like it

[Simon]

A question for Simon - why did you vote MP?

We found out he's bad now.

[Quin]

A question for Simon - why did you vote MP?

We found out he's bad now.

That does not answer my question.

[Simon]

I'm going to have to fight a lot of battles and die.

[Simon]

A question for Simon - why did you vote MP?

We found out he's bad now.

That does not answer my question.

If he's MovingPictures, then his sock should move in his picture.

I know that's not going to answer your question.

[Quin]

I voted Simon and...Dom.

[Simon]

I voted Simon and...Dom.

Me too.

[indiglo]

I don't expect you to defend yourself against my read on sig. Just keep doing what you're doing, because I like it

Possible responses, please pick one:

A. Much obliged.

B. Not the first time I've heard that, if you know what I mean.

C. That's what she said.

D. None of the above.

E. All of the above.

[indiglo]

Ok, here and working on catching up before I do a Boom read, and maybe a Dom read, since I've seen his name mentioned.

Quick question though,

How come we are having so many people pop on, not talk about who they're voting for, and just vote and run away again with no discussion? That is not good my friends. Working together is all we've got. Now I don't expect a dissertation here, but at least a few words, and a few moments consideration before just splattering the poll with a mish mash of votes. It looks like it's been sprayed with machine gun fire!

But I do approve of the LoRab votes.

[Matahari]

Lorab and Nijuu

[Quin]

I don't expect you to defend yourself against my read on sig. Just keep doing what you're doing, because I like it

Possible responses, please pick one:

A. Much obliged.

B. Not the first time I've heard that, if you know what I mean.

C. That's what she said.

D. None of the above.

E. All of the above.

E, but also D because that's disgusting.

[Quin]

Ok, here and working on catching up before I do a Boom read, and maybe a Dom read, since I've seen his name mentioned.

Quick question though,

How come we are having so many people pop on, not talk about who they're voting for, and just vote and run away again with no discussion? That is not good my friends. Working together is all we've got. Now I don't expect a dissertation here, but at least a few words, and a few moments consideration before just splattering the poll with a mish mash of votes. It looks like it's been sprayed with machine gun fire!

But I do approve of the LoRab votes.

This is all I want in life. If people could just do this, I could die happy.

[indiglo]

Boomslang thoughts...

Couple of his posts that stood out:

Whoa. INH's banner is clearly the best argument anyone has yet made; it's even got an exclamation point! Voting him, as well as MM because he called me out to play this game in the first place :P

Voted both INH and MM as prefect (I believe that's what that was all about) - both were NanMen. But here's the thing, I was suspecting Boom of being Yellow, not Nan. So either he's Nan and I'm crazy, he's Yellow and I'm crazy, or he's neither Nan nor Yellow, and I'm crazy.

Honestly picking 2 suspected baddies seems like it has a way higher probability of working.

I agree, but that's assuming we have two really good baddie reads on any given night. If we pick a known or highly suspected civ at random, we have a 75% chance of getting a warrior, which puts us in pretty good odds for a fight.

And thats assuming our civilian read is right too.

So you are counting on the read being right, the civilian being a warrior, and the dice liking you. Are you sure those odds are that good?

While if you vote for two baddie suspects, you are diminishing the effects of the duel while focusing on one variable: the quality of your reads. If they are good, you have better odds of lynching a baddie.

I don't think that can be calculated, but I think the later sounds more likely to work.

Yes, but civilian reads are more likely to be right. So if we get that factor correct, then we only need to pick one baddie, the most high-quality baddie we have. We don't need to go scraping for evidence for a second suspect every time.

Then there's this. I do believe civ reads are more likely to be right if you are a baddie, because you know who isn't on your team. When you're civ I don't believe civ reads are more likely to be right personally. However this could simply be a difference of mafia philosophy and not a big "I'm a baddie" sign.

After that, I'm just not sold on him being a baddie. Has anyone presented a case on him yet that I haven't read yet?