Monkey Island [ENDGAME]

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Wow we're really down to the wire now!

Poll ended at Sun Dec 11, 2016 1:35 am

a2thezebra
1
7%
Scotty
2
14%
Vompatti
0
No votes
A three headed monkey! (Host/Mod/Dead/NP)
11
79%
 
Total votes: 14
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#751

Post by Snow Dog »

I mean "Drunken motel seems weird", what? Yeah, he seems drunk!
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#752

Post by Snow Dog »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.
i have found your analysis on on sig quite compelling. What are your thought on Quin?
Compelling is too strong a word. But it leaves food for thought. Reading it again I'm not sure. I think I agree that I would place him slight possibilty of mafia.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#753

Post by Boomslang »

MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.
I think you have a very good point with sig's back-to-back posts re: Nacho. I also agree that sig's last sentence in the "I find that to be very odd" post about you is superfluous and is there only to create suspicion. As an alternative interpretation, sig may not have had time at the moment to develop the case and left that as a marker for others. He does develop that case in the later post, and I think we shouldn't gloss over the fact that you defend against a meta interpretation by saying you tend to roll scum. That's deflecting the point off of your behavior onto the vagaries of the game.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#754

Post by Soneji »

Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#755

Post by Vompatti »

I voted for MP k
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#756

Post by Epignosis »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I'm not particularly opposed, but I already have one other player I'd rather vote for (sig), and there is still plenty of time left in Day 2 and plenty of players to ISO. So I likely won't be joining you, but we'll see.

What do you think of sig?
sig is one of those individuals I always find myself needing more concrete evidence against; a lot of people have a history pegging sig wrongly. Not that it matters much since one team did kill, but I don't think sig would miss a kill. In any event, I already voted, so I'm not the one you need to convince today.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
You could say this (bolded/underlined) about other players though. I'm not inspired.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#757

Post by Epignosis »

Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.]
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#758

Post by Soneji »

Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.]
aubergine
[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.]
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#759

Post by Tangrowth »

I'm here and ready to roll out some more ISOs. :mafia:
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#760

Post by Snow Dog »

Soneji wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

I don't know why you call his analysis ridiculous.

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.]
aubergine
[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.]
aubergine
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#761

Post by Snow Dog »

Soneji wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:



Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.]
aubergine
[VOTE:
I am quite sure you know I was referring to you analyzing MP' s rainbow lists and not you making one. It is called context.]
aubergine
[VOTE:

I don't know why you call his analysis ridiculous.]
aubergine
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#762

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Snowy, why did you vote for zebra?
i didn't like the vote for motel or you. i had already announced I'd probably go for a low poster and zebra was top of the list.
Why did you vote early?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#763

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.
i have found your analysis on on sig quite compelling. What are your thought on Quin?
I'm tentatively feeling alright about Quin, but he showed us in Mad Max that he is capable of going full supatown while bad. Let me revisit this after ISOing him.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#764

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.
i have found your analysis on on sig quite compelling. What are your thought on Quin?
Compelling is too strong a word. But it leaves food for thought. Reading it again I'm not sure. I think I agree that I would place him slight possibilty of mafia.
What moments in sig's history give you pause from assigning him a stronger mafia read? (i.e., what parts of his history do you think look town?)
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#765

Post by Tangrowth »

Boomslang wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Am I being too harsh on sig? Are there town interpretations of his behavior where I thought he seemed like he was manufacturing his thoughts? Or do you agree with me that he looks bad? Or does he look even worse than I am assessing? What do you all think? This is important, especially if people are going to come in here and just hop on the wagon. Don't do that. Talk to me and the thread.

BBL for now, more ISOs incoming once I return.
I think you have a very good point with sig's back-to-back posts re: Nacho. I also agree that sig's last sentence in the "I find that to be very odd" post about you is superfluous and is there only to create suspicion. As an alternative interpretation, sig may not have had time at the moment to develop the case and left that as a marker for others. He does develop that case in the later post, and I think we shouldn't gloss over the fact that you defend against a meta interpretation by saying you tend to roll scum. That's deflecting the point off of your behavior onto the vagaries of the game.
That's fair. Would you consider voting for him, or are you still pushing for Wilgy?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#766

Post by DFaraday »

I read over the last couple of pages and voted BR. I don't generally like going after low posters, but I think in this case there could be merit to doing so given the missed NK. I also didn't find the Sig case compelling, as in my experience civs often say vague things or make unannounced changes in their stances quite a lot (I know I do). Sig is so often mislynched anyway, I have a hard time actually finding him suspicious most of the time.

Motel, why was I on your bad list?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#767

Post by Snow Dog »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Snowy, why did you vote for zebra?
i didn't like the vote for motel or you. i had already announced I'd probably go for a low poster and zebra was top of the list.
Why did you vote early?
I didn't. I left it to the final minute.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#768

Post by Tangrowth »

Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

You're right that I didn't make a push against anyone. I think I made my thoughts on where I stood with everyone quite clear, and I did not have any notable suspects throughout d1. Why do you think that makes me suspicious?

Furthermore, I did perhaps overreact to Epi's observation regarding my rainbow lists, but if you think that his analysis was ridiculous, then... again, I'm left wondering how any of these conclusions lead you to suspect me. Help me out here.

Do you have any thoughts on anyone else?]
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#769

Post by Tangrowth »

Vompatti wrote:I voted for MP k
Is there a reason?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#770

Post by Tangrowth »

Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I'm not particularly opposed, but I already have one other player I'd rather vote for (sig), and there is still plenty of time left in Day 2 and plenty of players to ISO. So I likely won't be joining you, but we'll see.

What do you think of sig?
sig is one of those individuals I always find myself needing more concrete evidence against; a lot of people have a history pegging sig wrongly. Not that it matters much since one team did kill, but I don't think sig would miss a kill. In any event, I already voted, so I'm not the one you need to convince today.
Your caution regarding sig is precisely why I'm clamoring for feedback, because I've contributed to his mislynch in past games plenty myself, but I set that fear aside when judging his content. My problem is that I'm afraid I'm not going to get the feedback I desire. It doesn't matter whether you already voted; if you are town, your input is still valued so that other members of the town can read you and work with your assessment as well. Did you have any specific thoughts on any observations or post interpretations I noted?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#771

Post by Tangrowth »

DFaraday wrote:I read over the last couple of pages and voted BR. I don't generally like going after low posters, but I think in this case there could be merit to doing so given the missed NK. I also didn't find the Sig case compelling, as in my experience civs often say vague things or make unannounced changes in their stances quite a lot (I know I do). Sig is so often mislynched anyway, I have a hard time actually finding him suspicious most of the time.

Motel, why was I on your bad list?
Is there anything in sig's post history that potentially leads you to believe he is town?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#772

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Snowy, why did you vote for zebra?
i didn't like the vote for motel or you. i had already announced I'd probably go for a low poster and zebra was top of the list.
Why did you vote early?
I didn't. I left it to the final minute.
I'm an idiot, ignore me. My bad.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#773

Post by Tangrowth »

This day period is pretty lame, folks. There has not been enough discussion or attempts to uncover members of the mafia at all. I anticipate much of the player list will vote in a similar to d1 fashion (including low poster policy lynch votes and unsubstantiated votes), which is unacceptable.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#774

Post by Snow Dog »

MovingPictures07 wrote:This day period is pretty lame, folks. There has not been enough discussion or attempts to uncover members of the mafia at all. I anticipate much of the player list will vote in a similar to d1 fashion (including low poster policy lynch votes and unsubstantiated votes), which is unacceptable.
true.

I might vote the zebra again, I seem to have touched a nerve there. trouble is I just don't know her game. can anyone help here?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#775

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:This day period is pretty lame, folks. There has not been enough discussion or attempts to uncover members of the mafia at all. I anticipate much of the player list will vote in a similar to d1 fashion (including low poster policy lynch votes and unsubstantiated votes), which is unacceptable.
true.

I might vote the zebra again, I seem to have touched a nerve there. trouble is I just don't know her game. can anyone help here?
Well, I looked at her post history already, and unfortunately I don't think I'll be any help. I've seen her mislynched for playing really detached, chaotic, gut-based games like she is right now, but her MO is to go aggressive supertown. I've seen enough of the former (and her behavior here) to feel hesitant. I don't really see anything illuminating in her post history. What would compel you to vote for her again over any of the other low content posters?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#776

Post by Snow Dog »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:This day period is pretty lame, folks. There has not been enough discussion or attempts to uncover members of the mafia at all. I anticipate much of the player list will vote in a similar to d1 fashion (including low poster policy lynch votes and unsubstantiated votes), which is unacceptable.
true.

I might vote the zebra again, I seem to have touched a nerve there. trouble is I just don't know her game. can anyone help here?
Well, I looked at her post history already, and unfortunately I don't think I'll be any help. I've seen her mislynched for playing really detached, chaotic, gut-based games like she is right now, but her MO is to go aggressive supertown. I've seen enough of the former (and her behavior here) to feel hesitant. I don't really see anything illuminating in her post history. What would compel you to vote for her again over any of the other low content posters?
Mainly her reaction to my voting her by voting for me ( I assume that's the reason, she never explained)
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#777

Post by Scotty »

Guys I'm at Disney land right now and am not going to do a full response to anything before EoD, so...

MP, I only skimmed your sig case but don't feel like I can make a qualified switch to sig. if he lasts after today, then I'll put into words as best I can what I think is civ about him. I'm as yet undecided there so I think I may have to vote for one of the inactives. Black rock isn't my first choice- that would maybe be boom, believe it or not. Or zebra. But.

Gotta go

Black rock
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#778

Post by Tangrowth »

ISO of Elohcin / motel room 2.0

==========================================================================================================================

Days 0-1
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Elohcin wrote:
Scotty wrote:Yeah I confused. Where does Monkey come into this?

Will check my role in a bit
So what...you just happened upon the Day 0 thread and haven't looked at your PM? Weird.
Elo's second post sees her commenting "weird" with respect to Scotty not checking his role right away, but nothing with respect to Wilgy. I'm not sure how to interpret this.
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Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Elohcin wrote:
Scotty wrote:Yeah I confused. Where does Monkey come into this?

Will check my role in a bit
So what...you just happened upon the Day 0 thread and haven't looked at your PM? Weird.
Is that not believable?
I don't know. I get an e-mail when I receive a PM. I received my email, clicked the link, read my role and THEN came into the thread. I guess I didn't think people hung out on the board index page waiting for the Day 0 thread to pop up and go there first.
Quin wrote: Why did you call out Scotty for not checking his role card, but not Wilgy?
I must have missed where Wilgy said the same thing. I guess its not that weird after all.

Linki: LC is here?! :D
I inquired regarding Elo's post (asked her if Scotty not checking her role is not believable) and Quin inquired why she did not say anything about Wilgy. This was her response. I historically have difficulty following Elohcin's mindset, and I'm unsure if any alignment indicative content is really here. I personally don't see anything. If you all do, please point it out.
Spoiler: show
Elohcin wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Hey Elo, are you bad?
No.

Who are you Nachomamma? Are you new to mafia. Are you a momma? Do you like nachos? I like nachos. :haha: :haha: :haha:
When I asked Elo if she is bad, she said "No." Take that as you will. :p

Then she got replaced by motel room 2.0. There's really nothing I can glean from her post history, unfortunately.

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:Guess who's back you wang-dang-doodles
:workit:
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:Where's the supertown that was campaigning for poor motel room [1]'s lynch? Is he still supertowning?
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:
Boomslang wrote:I tend to agree with Epi's line of reasoning about culling inactives, having just been part of the Three Kingdoms debacle. I think sig is way off-base with the following thought:
sig wrote:I think its just as likely one of the roles stopped the second night kill.
There are only three protectors, and one of them would need to successfully target a kill sender with only a single day of gameplay information. If there were eight missing PMs, that's a lot more possibilities for missed kills.
Boomslang wrote:Just realized that eight PMs figure was from Epi and not confirmed for this game. Disregard, but I still think the odds of a baddie being hidden among the inactives are pretty good.
What happened in Three Kingdoms?

Cos I think obviously there's "a baddie hidden among the inactives" cos there always is, but surely the start of the game with the most people alive and fresh why tf would anyone say out loud oh it must be the quiet people and be serious.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Welcome back!

In a way it is a presentation, of my thought process.

What do you think of said the thoughts i proposed?
I think they all could have happened - which do you think is the most likely?

You dropped three names and I think that's the substance of the post. What to do with that, we'll see.
"motel room's back, baby!" is what this series of entrance posts screams to me. In my history playing with motel room and in noting the observations of those who have played with him more extensively, I feel confident in my assessment that town motel room typically conveys a sense of urgency / poking around a pile of rubble so to speak when he enters the thread, even when throwing around small questions or observations. That is the sense I get here, and I have found that he does not capture the same insightful poking as mafia (note to self: analyze future posts to see whether his subsequent pokings seem legit). I know this set of five posts isn't much of anything super substantial, but I like this stuff, just like I did in Mad Max. This is what I was hoping to see in motel room 1.0.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:Think I'd vote metalmarsh if I had to vote right now
motel room expresses a desire to lynch Metalmarsh, though I'm not sure why. Ehhhh.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:But I already voted for Snow Dog who is also bad so #YOLO :cloud9:
Snow Dog wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:
Snow Dog wrote:
a2thezebra wrote:I want to lynch Quin.

That's right suckers I can talk.
I never thought otherwise.
Your OMGUS historical revisionism game is on point! :clap:
I never once posted an opinion on the matter.
Snow Dog wrote:I sense you are trying to rile me. I'll ignore for now.
How come you're not interested in why she thinks you're bad and put a non-changeable vote down, Snow Dog?
This was a worthwhile question to ask. I like this post because at face value it illustrates a motel room who cares about getting a better understanding of Snow Dog's thought process, presumably with the intent of getting an alignment read on him. A member of the mafia would have only motivation to fake that intention, but motel room's question seems insightful and sincere for my taste.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
motel room wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
This post feels like a presentation and it's got that here's a thing, but then here's the opposite of that thing structure that they do in cold reading.
Do you gain any potential alignment read from Scotty as a result?

And welcome back! :D
From his follow up chats, I'm into the guy.
Wait, sorry, I'm tired and dense right now. What do you mean by "into the guy"?
Means I like him, putting him as town for now.
motel room prodded Scotty in two posts (the one quoted here by me as well as this other one I haven't yet highlighted in this ISO and makes an assessment that he is town. I like it. motel room seems to be trying to legitimately figure other players out.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:I don't do rainbows but this is what I've got scrawled from a read through starting somewhere during Night 1, already sort of said most of it

Good - quin, MP, scotty
Bad - metalmarsh, dfaraday, sig
Golden (vouched for) - Long Con, MP
Here is motel room's "rainbow" (he doesn't do them). I think there is plenty of substantiation in his post history to believe his Scotty read, but the rest I'm not as sure about. I feel conflicted about this post. I like the attempt, but it would be nice if motel room could elaborate on some of these reads in greater detail since his thoughts on them aren't 100% clear despite his claim that he sort of said most of it.
Spoiler: show
motel room wrote:Lynch is ending before i get up for work so im down to start the sig train
Then he votes for sig. It is unclear what he thought about my ISO. He did leave bad gut feelings about sig in his post before (which was hours prior), so I guess there's that.

==========================================================================================================================

I had Elohcin as a null and subsequently a slight mafia read because I couldn't glean anything from her content. I still cannot. However, now we have motel room 2.0's content to judge!

motel room hasn't posted a ton since his re-entrance to the game this day cycle, but he has posted plenty for me to get a starting feel for him, and I like the feel I'm getting. He very much appears to be legitimately hunting for baddies even with low-volume content posts. The only criticism I have is that too much of his content is seemingly gut-based and there isn't enough of a 'paper trail' regarding his thoughts on players for my liking. That is potentially problematic because mafia members have to manufacture all of their content and suspicions, so gut-based and vague reads are easier for a mafia motel room to fake. With that said, I'm going with my gut and calling him a moderate town read.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#779

Post by Tangrowth »

Scotty wrote:Guys I'm at Disney land right now and am not going to do a full response to anything before EoD, so...

MP, I only skimmed your sig case but don't feel like I can make a qualified switch to sig. if he lasts after today, then I'll put into words as best I can what I think is civ about him. I'm as yet undecided there so I think I may have to vote for one of the inactives. Black rock isn't my first choice- that would maybe be boom, believe it or not. Or zebra. But.

Gotta go

Black rock
Well, I'm left in utmost anticipation as to an elaboration of not only your sig read but why you would have preferred Boom, etc.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#780

Post by Long Con »

Looks like BR is likely going down. If the kill was missed then she's certainly one of the likely suspects. I'm going to throw a vote Zebra's way though, because I think her weird behaviour is a screen for her baddieness. Sorry I'm not ready to get all MP07-level with my game analysis, but this is my first game back after a break, and I need to gently work Mafia back into my life, which was 0% mafia for some time.

*vote a2thezebra*
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#781

Post by Tangrowth »

I'm working on an Epi ISO now, but I think I'm going to look at Soneji next because his post today is making me feel uneasy about him again. I could potentially see him as another worthwhile avenue for today's lynch. But I need to look before making that determination for sure.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#782

Post by Tangrowth »

Long Con wrote:Looks like BR is likely going down. If the kill was missed then she's certainly one of the likely suspects. I'm going to throw a vote Zebra's way though, because I think her weird behaviour is a screen for her baddieness. Sorry I'm not ready to get all MP07-level with my game analysis, but this is my first game back after a break, and I need to gently work Mafia back into my life, which was 0% mafia for some time.

*vote a2thezebra*
I'm uninspired, LC.

Furthermore, there's no reason to believe Black Rock is going down. If she does it will be due to lazy bandwagon voting.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#783

Post by Tangrowth »

Spoiler alert on the Epi ISO: He was being reasonable and I was being totally unreasonable.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#784

Post by Tangrowth »

This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#785

Post by Snow Dog »

MovingPictures07 wrote:This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.
Bit busy right now. Middle of cooking dinner.
NOT a winner of...
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#786

Post by Tangrowth »

Snow Dog wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.
Bit busy right now. Middle of cooking dinner.
No one needs to answer for this, especially you. I'm just venting. I realize people are busy; I should know that better than anyone given I was working 70+ hours per week the last few months and pulling all-nighters regularly. RL is important. Way more important than this game.

It just is really disheartening to see two Day cycles now with so much wasted potential. Too many people aren't being held accountable for their presence in this game, and too many people aren't contributing to the hunt really at all. The votes that have come in so far today would be poor even for a quietish Day 1, but they are incrementally worse for a Day 2.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#787

Post by Vompatti »

MovingPictures07 wrote:
Vompatti wrote:I voted for MP k
Is there a reason?
There'll be 90% less text to scroll through when you're gone.
When the horse panics or something goes wrong, remain calm and reassure the horse.

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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#788

Post by Tangrowth »

Vompatti wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Vompatti wrote:I voted for MP k
Is there a reason?
There'll be 90% less text to scroll through when you're gone.
I pretty much knew you'd say this, but it still disappoints me every time. :sigh:
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#789

Post by Tangrowth »

T minus 2 hours until EoD. Ugh. There's no way I'll get all these ISOs done in time... I'll be lucky to get them done by Night 2. I suppose that's the new goal.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#790

Post by Tangrowth »

I miss Nacho. Where are you, man?
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#791

Post by Tangrowth »

ISO of Epignosis

==========================================================================================================================

Days 0-1
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:Batten down the hatches...
Epi starts the game with fluff. The subsequent 9 posts are all fluff as well until his analysis regarding my rainbow lists. We all know that I was quickly put on the defensive.

Trying to look at this post again with as objective a mind as possible, I see a series of observations with a natural implication. Previously in the heat of the moment I noted that I thought Epignosis was putting pressure on me to feel me out, but I'm no longer convinced that was the case. I think he thought he had a potentially telling observation to share, and so he shared it. I can dig it.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Only here between finishing teaching and a meeting, but I wanted to comment on Epi's analysis of my rainbow lists.

Epi, your analysis is intriguing, but it is myopic and fails to make any meaningful inference about my alignment for the following reasons:

1) You do not explain why my alignment would have any impact on my rainbow list behavior. What's the connection? A conclusion that I am bad because I posted my first rainbow with only slight mafia and town tiers is like saying ice cream causes crime because in the summer ice cream sales increase and crime increases. It may be an association but there is no underlying theory detailing a correlation.
You should leave the analogies to Scotty. :meany:

I don't have to explain why your alignment would have any impact on how you make your lists. The why exists between your brain and your keyboard, and I'm not privy to what transpires between the two. My whole intention was to see if any correlation could be made, and that's what I found. It is a difference I believe you would not be aware of right now.
MovingPictures07 wrote:2) You neglect the fact that your sample size is skewed by the fact that I roll scum more often than town.
The sample size is going to be small because I stopped at the point in which such lists started to be a thing. There was no point in me going back to games in 2013 or 2014 when nobody posted them.
MovingPictures07 wrote:3) You fail to consider the environment of the thread and whether conditions exist at the times you pulled those rainbow lists that warranted me splitting my reads into further categories.
How do you know what I considered? All I did was pull your first lists from three games when you were good and three games when you were bad. I hardly commented on them.
MovingPictures07 wrote:4) Perhaps most importantly, similarly to 3), you do not consider what stages of the game in terms of "Day ____" those lists are from. That is a much more meaningful indication of how tiered my rainbow lists will be. Note that for every example of a good MP you pulled those rainbows are from Days 2 and 3 after we have had at least one flip and more information by which I can sort my reads. Further, the only outlier is the Star Wars game, and the reason that game is an outlier is due to 3) here. That game's Day 1 was way more chock full of back-and-forths and discussion than this one, especially considering I made my list here with still the rest of today to progress.
I pulled the very first list I found. I wasn't concerned with what Day it was.

The outlier for Star Wars isn't as important to me because I wanted to find a good MP list that lacked nuance like the one you posted here. I could not find one.
MovingPictures07 wrote:So your analysis is bupkis.
Nachomamma8 wrote:I disagree with Epignosis's analysis but I like that it exists and that means maybe Motel Room was the right vote after all!
It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation. :mafia:
Revisiting Epi's response to my beefs with his rainbow observations and I really like it. Honestly, he beat me up here. I was getting upset because it was early game and I absolutely despise having early game suspicions on me, especially ones that I feel are unreasonable, but looking back on all of this now it is sort of like an out of body moment because I can look at these and assess all of Epi's responses are measured and reasonable. I don't see any holes in the logic and I don't see anything other than a series of Epi progressing as such: investigating whether a trend existed and making a set of observations about a player, and then responding to said player's beef regarding those observations, fairly.

Epi then votes for me and comments on missing votes, but subsequently provides this explanation for his investigation into my rainbow list behavior:
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation. :mafia:
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?
Did it at work while I was waiting for students to finish a test. I hate rainbow lists, so I wondered if they could be useful in another way- finding out how someone uses them early on from one alignment to the next. I know MP consistently does them early on.

I wanted to see what I could see, and I saw.
This jives with everything about his approach as expressed in the thread. Seems genuine to me.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm trusting my process and voting MovingPictures07.
Your process is BS and I think you know it.
Is that a formal accusation? :mafia:
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I'm trusting my process and voting MovingPictures07.
Your process is BS and I think you know it.
Is that a formal accusation? :mafia:
No, I think you're town. I just think you're shaking trees to see what falls out. I don't appreciate being the tree though considering how close I came to death yesterday and how I'm low hanging fruit headed into Day 2.
How many trees did I shake?

What fell out?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation. :mafia:
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?
What is compelling about it, even remotely? I don't get it. I cannot fathom anything even remotely compelling about it. I've already debunked it.
I showed things about your previous games. I quoted posts. I did not analyze or evaluate anything beyond giving you my Day 1 vote. What was there to debunk?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Golden wrote:
Epignosis wrote:It wasn't an analysis. It was an observation. :mafia:
I find your observation somewhat compelling.

Question - is it one you just researched now, or have you been sitting on it waiting for a time it applied?
What is compelling about it, even remotely? I don't get it. I cannot fathom anything even remotely compelling about it. I've already debunked it.
I showed things about your previous games. I quoted posts. I did not analyze or evaluate anything beyond giving you my Day 1 vote. What was there to debunk?
That it literally has any indication of my alignment. You fucking voted me for it and so did others, even Golden finds it "somewhat compelling" and he should know me better. Stop being purposefully obtuse.
How do I know that? I like what I found today. I think you're surprised that I found it. You think I'm good (so you say), but I know my process is BS and I'm being purposefully obtuse? What's the point of that?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Whatever, it's a bullshit pattern,
.

It isn't bullshit, and it isn't really a pattern. It's a tendency.
MovingPictures07 wrote: If you can't see why Epi's observation is absolutely myopic and a waste of time, I don't know what to say. If you all are going to mislynch me, just save me the trouble. I'm done talking about this nonsense.
I can only wonder if you would be this passionate about how much I'm wasting my time if I were discussing someone else.
I like all of these preceding posts where Epi further interacts with me. They are all devoid of any potential for manipulation and all seem intent on getting me to think through my thought process regarding his observations and my read of him. I think that is more likely indicative of a town Epi who wants me to think critically about my posts and is trying to get a feel for me this game than it is of a mafia Epi trying to pursue some agenda, because I just don't see any agenda here. If Epi is mafia and wanted to get me lynched on d1, he could have easily manipulated some of my unreasonable responses here and pushed it harder, but he didn't. He is lacking passion and coverage with respect to talking about anyone other than me, so it is perhaps a bit odd that I am so heavily townreading all of this, but I am.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Golden wrote:I believe you, mp.

Actually, mostly I wanted to test whether I believed epi was genuine. I do. So I have both of you as town reads.

But you shouldn't confuse wrong with meritless. If you extract yourself from being the one accused, I think you would see the need to test.
How did you test this?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Golden wrote:Epi, what do you make of MPs reaction? Or are you not willing to say?
MP gets angry and storms off often when he gets suspected for any reason he feels is stupid, which doesn't mean anything to me. I never know when it's an act.

He says he thinks I'm good, but everything he says about my contributions regarding him indicates that he thinks they are contrived. That I don't understand.

On the one hand, he seems to think I'm just doing this to get a reaction out of him, but if he knows this, then why be pissed and angry and say I'm taking it too far? How far is too far? On the other hand, if I genuinely suspect him, then he should know I'm not going to back down because he calls the observation I raised a waste of his time, bullshit, etc.
In these two posts, Epi engages Golden on the subject. I like the first post because he specifically calls Golden on his assertion that he wanted to test whether Epi was being genuine. I also like the second post because it further shows Epi picking apart my posts and logic in an attempt to assess its content. It would have been nice to get an associated evaluation as to my alignment though.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:Mad Max is a perfect example of a civ MP making three-tiered lists.
It's either an example or it isn't. The word "perfect" is unnecessary in this sentence. Quin is bad. :meany:

Quite right. I don't like commenting on ongoing games, so I didn't even bother to look at that one.
This seems believable to me as to why Epi omitted Mad Max from his observations.

It's funny to me because I really wasn't too sure what I would feel about Epi after revisiting our interactions throughout d1, but he seems entirely reasonable and level-headed to me now. I would have questioned my posts as well. :p

==========================================================================================================================

Day 2
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:Time to cull the less actives. Image
One could argue that this Day 2 entrance post summarizes all of Epi's behavior throughout this day. Many might argue he is less town or suspicious for it. Let's see if I agree with either of those assessments by the end of this thing.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:Two people should have died. Only one did.
thellama73 wrote:LeChuck - The infamous ghost pirate. Kills nightly.

The Cannibals (3) - Just want to be left alone on Monkey Island. They kill nightly and win if both other teams are dead (with the exception of Herman Toothrot and the Head of the Navigator, whom they can tolerate.)
There's a blocker, a protector, and the Head of the Navigator, but there's also this:
thellama73 wrote:Night ends in an hour and I am still missing lots of actions.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:I'm not interested in MP right now. I want to give him room Day 2 to get his ideas out there (like he ever needed room for that :suspish:), but I want to know who missed a kill. That's a team of four and a team of three. One of those teams fell asleep at the wheel.
Epi cites the lack of 1 NK as well as Llama's in-game content towards the end of n1 for wanting to culling inactives. I could believe this being sufficient reason, in combination with having just hosted Romance of the Three Kingdoms where my team was a gigantic fail and the other one was a mini fail, for a town Epi to want to pursue this line of suspicion. Conversely, it could be seen as a mafia Epi opportunistically mislynching a low-volume town poster. I don't see a strong reason to believe the latter train of thought though.

Further, he notes he is not interested in me right now. I'm not sure what that means. I could see one of two interpretations: (1) Epi is currently feeling better about me and expresses such a desire to not re-pursue my lynch today in thread, or (2) Epi still believes I am potentially worth pursuing but believes this other avenue is currently more fruitful. Epi, can you clarify?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:I want to lynch Black Rock.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:I want to lynch Epignosis.
Voted for Black Rock.

Your turn.
Epi expresses the desire to lynch Black Rock, and then votes accordingly. Alright.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
sig wrote:I do think our mafia members either didn't vote or voted on a non wagon avoiding both major lynches. I do however, believe night kills where submitted and I don't think we should just start lynching lurkers on the off chance an entire team forgot/wasn't around to submit a kill.
On what basis do you believe both kills were submitted?
This is a worthwhile question.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Quin wrote:
sig wrote:I think its just as likely one of the roles stopped the second night kill.

@Quin why Epi
You answered your own question. There's a core difference between this game and RoT3K in that while in that game there weren't any protector roles, in this game there are 3 that may have been responsible for a missed NK.
You didn't know that. A number of my roles had secrets, and on top of that, there were dozens of items that offered special abilities, which were also secret.
Quin wrote:Yet he's pushing the inactive route, likely for an easy mislynch.
Is that my master plan now? Gun for MP all of Day 1 and then switch it up Day 2 for- your words- "an easy mislynch."

Pretty rich coming from the guy who voted himself Day 1, preemptively washing his hands of that lynch to find out if votes could be changed or not. :suspish:
As I noted previously, if Epi wanted to manipulate the thread for his own team's agenda, he could be miles more outwardly manipulative of the thread right now. I don't see much of any agenda in his post behavior.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Scotty wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
Scotty wrote:Again the entire premise of lurking low posters only works if there's ample evidence. I'm not sure it's the best course of action, but it is something. I happen to be on Epi's side based on that fact that there were missing actions. I don't know what constitutes "lots" but it's a pretty good assumption.
If a role were blocked by the blocker, I'm not even sure how that info would be leaked since we can't infodump.

Or as I already mentioned, both teams targeted golden.

Those are the 3 options I see here... I'm just not sure what to do with that. Might as well be playing lawn darts with the low posters, which I'm not sure is worth gambling with yet. Im keeping my eyes on Black rock, Boomslang and Soneji as suspects, but I'm not even close to pulling the trigger on any of them yet
There's an inherent bias many people will have. Consider: If you are the blocker or the protector, and one of the kills didn't go through, you will want to believe that you played a part in stopping that kill. You will either suspect or trust the person you targeted, and that's fair. I'm not faulting anyone for playing it that way. However. given confirmation that there were "lots" of missing PMs an hour before the Night ended leads me to believe that the protector and the blocker should both dial back on their respective levels of confidence.

That's assuming either of them did dick last Night. :derp:
That being said, do you currently suspect those non-posters that I listed? And if so, how would you go about weeding them out if none come back and post?
I'd lynch any and all of them.

Add motel room to that list.
Epi further doubles down on why pursuing inactives is worthwhile. I'll call this post incrementally null, but it's worth keeping in here since Epi states he would be willing to pursue lynches of any low/non-posters.

Epi, would you still be willing to pursue a lynch of motel room 2.0?
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:Quin is either bad or a fool.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
Epi argues with Quin over the legitimacy of pursuing an inactive poster lynch.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
Epi point blanks asks for players to explain any opposition to a BR lynch.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:I voted for Black Rock.

Who opposes her lynch, and why do you oppose it?
I'm not particularly opposed, but I already have one other player I'd rather vote for (sig), and there is still plenty of time left in Day 2 and plenty of players to ISO. So I likely won't be joining you, but we'll see.

What do you think of sig?
sig is one of those individuals I always find myself needing more concrete evidence against; a lot of people have a history pegging sig wrongly. Not that it matters much since one team did kill, but I don't think sig would miss a kill. In any event, I already voted, so I'm not the one you need to convince today.
MovingPictures07 wrote:
Epignosis wrote:Listen.

Black Rock has two posts. That's it. If she's good, she isn't doing anything to find Mafia. If she's bad, bingo.

Couple that with the knowledge that lots of people missed Night 1 and only one person died, and again BINGO.

Stop being cute.
You could say this (bolded/underlined) about other players though. I'm not inspired.
:meany:
I asked Epi what he thinks of sig after conducting my ISO, and this was his response. Really hellbent on lynching an inactive, are we?

I already expressed thoughts on this post of Epi's post here. I would like if he addressed it and contributed any specific thought on any my ISO observations.
Spoiler: show
Epignosis wrote:
Soneji wrote:Not fully caught up but Epi and MP would be my top suspects at the moment. MP's vote on motel room can certainly be attributed to self preservation, yet with all the time he spent making posts d1, he didn't make any push against anyone. No courage of conviction. More then that, his response to Epi's rainbow analysis was pretty blown out of proportion, a tl;dr defense against what was a pretty ridiculous analysis by Epi.

That ridiculous analysis plus him going after an inactive at this point in the game is why I suspect Epignosis. The analysis seems more like a premeditated move than having an epiphany and pursuing it with fervor, by the way in which it was written and it being on a day one that was noticeably barebones in terms of reads. Even if his general findings were true and he did happen to notice this pattern specifically, hinging on it D1 is folly. Better to let MP continue what hes doing and get him with more concrete evidence later, then let him weasel out of your weak reasoning and straighten his act.

It is possible they are both scum, one pirate, one cannibal. MP's high volume of posts certainly lend itself towards a larger chance of slipping.

[VOTE: ] aubergine
[VOTE:

Your attributing "rainbow analysis" to me troubles me more than your vote.]
aubergine
[VOTE:
Throwing some shade at Soneji for his vote.

==========================================================================================================================

Well, that's Epi this game. His behavior, while consistently narrow-focused (first with me on d0-d1 and now inactives and specifically BR on d2), displays a player who exhibits no noticeable agenda and is asking reasonable and insightful questions to solve the game. There is also meta precedent for Epi's frustration with and logical pursuit of inactives. Further, although pursuing this d2 suspicion as hard as he is could be seen as opportunistic and very easy for a mafia member to fake his suspicions, Epi isn't exactly keeping thread eyes off of him with this behavior either, which seems unnecessarily risky at this stage for a mafia member to undertake. Overall, I really see an Epi who is trying to solve the game more than anything and ensure a town victory, even if I think more contributions regarding other players would be ideal.

There's a fair amount of gut going into my assessment here, but Epi wins the first strong town read of the game from me. Right now I absolutely think he's town.

We'll see if I keep thinking that. :p]
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#792

Post by Tangrowth »

Whew, that was a doozy. Be back in like 15 minutes. Although I don't think I'm talking to anyone still. :sigh:
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#793

Post by Tangrowth »

Well, there are 75 minutes until EoD now. Going to ISO Soneji and go from there.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#794

Post by Marmot »

MovingPictures07 wrote:Whew, that was a doozy. Be back in like 15 minutes. Although I don't think I'm talking to anyone still. :sigh:
I usually don't read your ISO's as you post them, aside from the bottom line. But they make for good resources later on, so I can go back and look through them.

It's not because it's you (same goes for when Jay posts them), it's that it's a lot of text, and my eyes tend to glaze over when I read more than one or two at a time. I appreciate the effort though. :beer:

If you pick one player and post a case on them, then we're talking.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#795

Post by nijuukyugou »

MovingPictures07 wrote:This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.
It's the middle of the day for many of us, dude. You know this. I'm only on because it happens to be a day where my planning is in the afternoon. And it'll be a holiday soon. And it's Day 2. Cool your jets :P

As for your sig review, what pings me more than anything about what he's been saying is his being so resolute that an entire mafia team couldn't have missed its kill last Night. This sort of thing has been happening in several games lately on this site. It would be one thing to offer his counter arguments, but to so staunchly oppose it as a non-possibility? Nah. Looks defensive. Pings real bad.

I still want to knock off inactives/slight inactives. There is no reason except inactivity to vote BR, so that's cool with me. I want to know where Wilgy went. You say zebra has played a detached and gut-read game in the past, but what she's doing right now is just detached without even gut reads. It's just...randomness. Chaotic. It's the same reason I voted Wilgy Day 1 - zebra's behavior is not civ, whatever she's doing.

So I'm good with voting any of those (includes sig, but less so than the inactives), and I need to get back to work. I'm going to mull over it a bit (maybe ten minutes or so) before I make the final call.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#796

Post by Tangrowth »

Metalmarsh89 wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:Whew, that was a doozy. Be back in like 15 minutes. Although I don't think I'm talking to anyone still. :sigh:
I usually don't read your ISO's as you post them, aside from the bottom line. But they make for good resources later on, so I can go back and look through them.

It's not because it's you (same goes for when Jay posts them), it's that it's a lot of text, and my eyes tend to glaze over when I read more than one or two at a time. I appreciate the effort though. :beer:

If you pick one player and post a case on them, then we're talking.
I appreciate the response. Have you looked at my sig ISO? If not, why don't you take a look at it and let me know what you think? Currently he is my top suspect and going to receive my vote unless Soneji or someone else appears immediately horrendous.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#797

Post by Tangrowth »

nijuukyugou wrote:
MovingPictures07 wrote:This game is like a patient in the ICU. Where is everyone? Where is the baddie hunting?

Seriously folks, why should I even try if the rest of you aren't going to do shit? Honest question because I'm feeling a bit frustrated with this entire day cycle's wasted potential right now.
It's the middle of the day for many of us, dude. You know this. I'm only on because it happens to be a day where my planning is in the afternoon. And it'll be a holiday soon. And it's Day 2. Cool your jets :P

As for your sig review, what pings me more than anything about what he's been saying is his being so resolute that an entire mafia team couldn't have missed its kill last Night. This sort of thing has been happening in several games lately on this site. It would be one thing to offer his counter arguments, but to so staunchly oppose it as a non-possibility? Nah. Looks defensive. Pings real bad.

I still want to knock off inactives/slight inactives. There is no reason except inactivity to vote BR, so that's cool with me. I want to know where Wilgy went. You say zebra has played a detached and gut-read game in the past, but what she's doing right now is just detached without even gut reads. It's just...randomness. Chaotic. It's the same reason I voted Wilgy Day 1 - zebra's behavior is not civ, whatever she's doing.

So I'm good with voting any of those (includes sig, but less so than the inactives), and I need to get back to work. I'm going to mull over it a bit (maybe ten minutes or so) before I make the final call.
Look, I know right now is the middle of the day, I'm referring to all of Day 2. There has been next to no discussion of anyone other than inactives for the past nearly 48 hours, and that's what bothered me, not just the lack of current content. Anyway, I was just venting. Feel free to ignore that nonsense. :p

Help me out here; you lost me a bit with your thoughts on sig. Why is it that his staunch opposition pings you? Like, walk me through the mindset of why a mafia sig would do that, that's where I'm lost.

She provided gut reads in saying BR and Epi are town and Snow Dog is bad, for example, but yes, they're completely unsubstantiated. The only problem with just lynching everyone who behaves in such a way (your bolded/underlined sentiment) is that just because someone is behaving chaotically does not mean their role card is mafia. It is up to us to make a determination based on the available content. I don't think lynching inactives blindly right now will serve us anything particularly productive; if we happen to hit a member of the mafia, great, but it's essentially flipping a coin.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#798

Post by Boomslang »

MP, I am perusing your stuff; currently at work, however, and unable to give it the attention it deserves. Gotta make a vote, and will do so at Wilgy for previously stated suspicions.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#799

Post by Tangrowth »

Boomslang wrote:MP, I am perusing your stuff; currently at work, however, and unable to give it the attention it deserves. Gotta make a vote, and will do so at Wilgy for previously stated suspicions.
Good deal. Curious to hear your thoughts once you get the chance.

I'm starting to lose steam again after that massive Epi ISO, but I'm going to at least chug through Soneji here and be around for EoD.
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Re: Monkey Island [DAY 2]

#800

Post by Tangrowth »

Soneji, you're difficult to read this game. Stop it. :P
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