Survivor: Mafia [Day 1-3: Mamana Tribe]

[Elohcin]

@Scotty - If I put both Slang and Opt as my BTSC choices and they both pick me...do all three of us get BTSC?

[Scotty]

@Scotty - If I put both Slang and Opt as my BTSC choices and they both pick me...do all three of us get BTSC?

No. You will each receive separate chats from each other.

[DharmaHelper]

Hmm. No immunity but still tribal. That's ominous.

Although, another fun option might be just to pick all black rocks which would force a coin flip at worst and give us a shitload of points and food at best. His Majesty is willing to take input on this strategy.

We could also do half and half.

At any rate, I think we should agree to a strategy.

I also think we should all agree to post our choices in the thread and not do them by PM, to make sure we are all being honest.

We have to do them by PM. And they'll be revealed at the end anyway, so any liars will get punished.

[Opt_Outside]

Okay I definitely dont think we should all do yellow. It's impossible for us to win that way. I agree that maybe half and half is the better way to go but I think it would be great to win that fishing gear. Then we won't have to rely on reward to get food.

[DharmaHelper]

Man... with no chance to talk to the other team, this gets very difficult very quickly. Consider the following: they're probably angry at us for winning immunity yesterday, and picking black rocks would be a way for them to get revenge. On the other hand, they have fewer people to gather food, and so may hope to boost their chances by getting food from the challenge.

We have the numbers advantage now; we need food handouts less than they do. If they go all black, and we pick even one yellow rock, we get nothing. Given the lack of ability to establish trust, I'd vote to go all black.

But wait: Scotty, are picks revealed one by one in thread?

I'm gonna level with you. Picking all black is tempting, but not the way to go. As I said earlier, this is the prisoner's dilemma. The best way to solve the PD is to pick the that benefits both parties, rather than risking penalizing both parties.

I say we all pick yellow rocks, if the pick black rocks so be it.

Linki:

If we decide to go half and half, I know Long Con well enough to know he'll pick yellow so I'll do the same for him.

[Opt_Outside]

Man... with no chance to talk to the other team, this gets very difficult very quickly. Consider the following: they're probably angry at us for winning immunity yesterday, and picking black rocks would be a way for them to get revenge. On the other hand, they have fewer people to gather food, and so may hope to boost their chances by getting food from the challenge.

We have the numbers advantage now; we need food handouts less than they do. If they go all black, and we pick even one yellow rock, we get nothing. Given the lack of ability to establish trust, I'd vote to go all black.

But wait: Scotty, are picks revealed one by one in thread?

I'm gonna level with you. Picking all black is tempting, but not the way to go. As I said earlier, this is the prisoner's dilemma. The best way to solve the PD is to pick the that benefits both parties, rather than risking penalizing both parties.

If you're set on not doing all black rocks, I say we at least split it half and half. Then we'll still get food for the whole tribe but we'll also hopefully score some points
I say we all pick yellow rocks, if the pick black rocks so be it.

Linki:

If we decide to go half and half, I know Long Con well enough to know he'll pick yellow so I'll do the same for him.

If you're set on not doing all black, I say we at least do half and half. That way we'll get food for the tribe but also hopefully score some points

[Opt_Outside]

I would propose 4 yellow and 5 black. I'm happy to take a yellow to show I genuinely think it's in tribe's best interest, not mine

[DharmaHelper]

I agree with the assessment that 50/50 is a fine way forward. I'll be picking yellow.

[DharmaHelper]

I would propose 4 yellow and 5 black. I'm happy to take a yellow to show I genuinely think it's in tribe's best interest, not mine

A good proposal.

[DharmaHelper]

At LoRab's suggestion, please copy/paste this list with your decision.

YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
-
-

BLACK
-
-
-
-
-

[Opt_Outside]

At LoRab's suggestion, please copy/paste this list with your decision.

YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
-
-

BLACK
-
-
-
-
-

Sounds good. I'll wait until we finalize the list to make sure there are no mistakes and then I'll PM yellow, Elo, and insertname to scotty

[speedchuck]

I would prefer yellow for my pick, unless someone knows something about MP that I don't.

Also, does anyone want BTSC with me? I'm offering.

[DharmaHelper]

Can someone who is more familiar with Survivor than I please clarify why this isn't an immunity challenge/if we have Tribal tonight alongside the other tribe?

[DharmaHelper]

I would prefer yellow for my pick, unless someone knows something about MP that I don't.

Also, does anyone want BTSC with me? I'm offering.

I can pencil you in for Day 3?

[Boomslang]

That's the thing with the PD—over repeated iterations, it's best to pick the nice option, as it does benefit both parties over the long run once that trust is established.

But for a single instance, it gets more complicated. Especially when, over the long run, we want the other tribe to lose. I'll be picking black; I think it works for me in particular because I imagine Quin might try one yellow and one black.

Linki w/DH:
YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
-
-

BLACK
- Boomslang
-
-
-
-

Linki w/speedchuck: Yeah, I'd wager MP would pick yellow? At least he'd be slightly more likely to do so.

[speedchuck]

YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
- speedchuck
-

BLACK
- Boomslang
-
-
-
-

[speedchuck]

LoRab
DrWilgy
Golden

I'm going to be picking 2/3 of you for BTSC tonight. Do any of you refuse, making my choice easier?

[insertnamehere]

YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
- speedchuck
- INH

BLACK
- Boomslang
-
-
-
-

[Opt_Outside]

Guys it's okay to pick black! We won't think you're selfish. We need it for the sake of the team.

Also, Elo this is assuming you'll take my btsc offer?

[Opt_Outside]

Can someone who is more familiar with Survivor than I please clarify why this isn't an immunity challenge/if we have Tribal tonight alongside the other tribe?

It's unusual but not unheard of for us to go to tribal without a challenge. Anything can happen in survivor

[DharmaHelper]

Can someone who is more familiar with Survivor than I please clarify why this isn't an immunity challenge/if we have Tribal tonight alongside the other tribe?

It's unusual but not unheard of for us to go to tribal without a challenge. Anything can happen in survivor

I see. Well, should be an eventful time.

@HOSTS - Will we be visiting Tribal Council separate from the other tribe, or will both tribes be mingling together tonight?

[Scotty]

Can someone who is more familiar with Survivor than I please clarify why this isn't an immunity challenge/if we have Tribal tonight alongside the other tribe?

It's unusual but not unheard of for us to go to tribal without a challenge. Anything can happen in survivor

I see. Well, should be an eventful time.

@HOSTS - Will we be visiting Tribal Council separate from the other tribe, or will both tribes be mingling together tonight?

You will each be having your own tea party with me at tribal council tonight

[DrWilgy]

Umm... I know we are 50/50, but I'm gomma throw a yellow rock.

I trust SVS :^)

Besides we are up 1 person right now, what will it hurt to throw an extra yellow?

[DharmaHelper]

Umm... I know we are 50/50, but I'm gomma throw a yellow rock.

I trust SVS :^)

Besides we are up 1 person right now, what will it hurt to throw an extra yellow?

Practically, it won't hurt at all. We've got 9 people so we'd throw 5-4 or 4-5 either way.

[speedchuck]

Wilgy, wanna BTSC tonight?

[DrWilgy]

Umm... Sure!

[DharmaHelper]

Seems like Fire/food are our priorities today. I'll tend the fire since my last fishing trip didn't go so well.

[LoRab]

I'll do a black rock. I figure I'm probably perceived as being a good person, who would be more likely to do the generous thing and do a yellow rock, so I might as well go with the unexpected.

Hmm. No immunity but still tribal. That's ominous.

Although, another fun option might be just to pick all black rocks which would force a coin flip at worst and give us a shitload of points and food at best. His Majesty is willing to take input on this strategy.

We could also do half and half.

At any rate, I think we should agree to a strategy.

I also think we should all agree to post our choices in the thread and not do them by PM, to make sure we are all being honest.

We have to do them by PM. And they'll be revealed at the end anyway, so any liars will get punished.

Not what the host post says (relevant part made huge for emphasis):

Challenge #2: Let’s Rock [Willpower]

Team REWARD, no immunity

One random player will have to go twice today on the tribe with 8 people. I have randomly drawn for this person and it is Quin.

For each round, one player will square off against a player on the other team. Players are playing for cumulative rewards- you leave with what you win.

Each player is given 2 rocks- yellow and black- to choose from and place in a bucket. The yellow rock stands for unity and sharing, while the black rock stands for opportunism and selfishness. Players PM the host (or post in their team thread) which rock they wish to place in the bucket.

If a player places a black rock in the bucket while the opponent places a yellow rock in the bucket, the player with the black rock receives 1 point as well as +1 food for him/herself and the player with the yellow rock receives nothing. If both players place their yellow rock in the bucket, both players will return with +1 food for each other person on the tribe (but not themselves), and both will score a point. If both players place their black rock in the bucket, they receive nothing, and score no points for their team. If you do not submit a PM in time, you forfeit your turn, and point automatically goes to the opponent. If neither PM me, neither get a point. 

The team with the most points wins fishing gear.
If neither team scores a point, no team will win reward; if both teams become tied with 1 or more points, I will toss a coin for winner. Either way, players leave with any acquired food from the challenge.

Note: you may not share the food you receive in this challenge.

I have drawn for matchups:

DFaraday   v   Golden
Quin          v   Boomslang
Sorsha       v   Opt_Outside
SVS         v    DrWilgy
Long Con   v  DharmaHelper
Epignosis   v   insertnamehere
not sawyer  v   Elo
MP          v     speedchuck
Quin       v     LoRab

Please PM me your choice of rock.

LoRab
DrWilgy
Golden

I'm going to be picking 2/3 of you for BTSC tonight. Do any of you refuse, making my choice easier?

I'll BTSC with you!

[DharmaHelper]

Ah, fair enough LoRab. Mine eyes were drawn to the bold/underline end of the post :P

I think the "Pick List" we've been updating should serve as good enough to count as posting in here, right?

[DharmaHelper]

Updated Pick List:

YELLOW
- Opt
- DharmaHelper
- speedchuck
- INH
- Wilgy

BLACK
- Boomslang
- Lorab
-
-

[Opt_Outside]

Okay so I'm here thinking- give a man a fish he eats for a day. Get some fishing gear we eat all game. So I kind of feel like we should do 5 black 4 yellow and push for a win. So maybe one of the yellow should switch? I can if no one else wants to/ everyone would be okay with that

[DharmaHelper]

Okay so I'm here thinking- give a man a fish he eats for a day. Get some fishing gear we eat all game. So I kind of feel like we should do 5 black 4 yellow and push for a win. So maybe one of the yellow should switch? I can if no one else wants to/ everyone would be okay with that

I like your initiative. If you want to switch, go for it. I'm not comfortable with switching myself.

[Opt_Outside]

Okay so I'm here thinking- give a man a fish he eats for a day. Get some fishing gear we eat all game. So I kind of feel like we should do 5 black 4 yellow and push for a win. So maybe one of the yellow should switch? I can if no one else wants to/ everyone would be okay with that

I like your initiative. If you want to switch, go for it. I'm not comfortable with switching myself.

Okay I'll switch. If we win I'm happy to use the fishing gear the first time to fish for the tribe and not myself!

So then we just need to hear from Elo and Golden who would in theory take black rocks?

Updated Pick List:

YELLOW
- DharmaHelper
- speedchuck
- INH
- Wilgy

BLACK
- Boomslang
- Lorab
- Opt
-
-

[DharmaHelper]

Okay so I'm here thinking- give a man a fish he eats for a day. Get some fishing gear we eat all game. So I kind of feel like we should do 5 black 4 yellow and push for a win. So maybe one of the yellow should switch? I can if no one else wants to/ everyone would be okay with that

I like your initiative. If you want to switch, go for it. I'm not comfortable with switching myself.

Okay I'll switch. If we win I'm happy to use the fishing gear the first time to fish for the tribe and not myself!

So then we just need to hear from Elo and Golden who would in theory take black rocks?

Updated Pick List:

YELLOW
- DharmaHelper
- speedchuck
- INH
- Wilgy

BLACK
- Boomslang
- Lorab
- Opt
-
-

That's correct as far as I can see.

I'm glad this challenge doesn't seem to drain any energy or anything. Gives us some time to recuperate.

[speedchuck]

Thanks, LoRab. I could use some company at night.

[DrWilgy]

Jeff, I'd like to fashion a spear out of w/e and use that to assist me in my fishing. Is that ok?

[LoRab]

With their approval, of course, I think Elo and Golden, similar to me, would be perceived as more likely to choose yellow, so are also good candidates for black, regardless.

[Golden]

Elo I'll BTSC with you too!

Anyone else want to chat with me tonight?

Me! I already picked you last night.

[Golden]

I would prefer yellow for my pick, unless someone knows something about MP that I don't.

Also, does anyone want BTSC with me? I'm offering.

Me.

I want you and opt.

I'll put my name down for DH on day three.

[Golden]

OK, I have a slightly different perspective on the rocks.

A black rock can get us 1 food. A yellow rock can get us 8 food. Therefore a yellow rock is a way better outcome for us.

On their tribe, they will also note a yellow rock can get them 7 food, and a black rock 1.

Some notes...

Surely LC would pick a Black Rock... I mean, he already made that call when it was the most important of his life.

Quin is going twice, I'm willing to bet he picks one of each. Going yellow against him both times would probably make sure we get 8 food at least once, unless their team goes for an 'all black' strategy.

My suggestion would be a primarily yellow, tactical black approach. Pick black against two or three people tops, who we think on their side are most likely to go yellow. People like MP and SVS.

[DharmaHelper]

Something to note, even if we lose, we keep the food we earn.

[Golden]

That's one approach.

The second approach is DH's second approach. All black. If we go all black, we are basically saying... screw the food we get in the challenge, we get the fishing gear if they draw a single yellow, and it's a coin flip if they don't draw a single yellow.

So, what do we want more.... the food from the challenge or the fishing gear? Probably the latter?

[DharmaHelper]

That's one approach.

The second approach is DH's second approach. All black. If we go all black, we are basically saying... screw the food we get in the challenge, we get the fishing gear if they draw a single yellow, and it's a coin flip if they don't draw a single yellow.

So, what do we want more.... the food from the challenge or the fishing gear? Probably the latter?

On the other hand, food from the challenge could hold us over until we are afforded gear anyway.

[Golden]

That's one approach.

The second approach is DH's second approach. All black. If we go all black, we are basically saying... screw the food we get in the challenge, we get the fishing gear if they draw a single yellow, and it's a coin flip if they don't draw a single yellow.

So, what do we want more.... the food from the challenge or the fishing gear? Probably the latter?

On the other hand, food from the challenge could hold us over until we are afforded gear anyway.

We might never be afforded gear... often only one tribe gets gear (but we'd get the benefit of it at the merge).

There's also the possibility food from the challenge needs to be eaten soon or it will spoil.

I'm just trying to think of this in terms of the show.

[speedchuck]

Golden
LoRab
Wilgy
I have three offers for BTSC now. Which of you would rather defer? I don't want to select two and have the other one waste a chat attempt on me.

[DharmaHelper]

That's one approach.

The second approach is DH's second approach. All black. If we go all black, we are basically saying... screw the food we get in the challenge, we get the fishing gear if they draw a single yellow, and it's a coin flip if they don't draw a single yellow.

So, what do we want more.... the food from the challenge or the fishing gear? Probably the latter?

On the other hand, food from the challenge could hold us over until we are afforded gear anyway.

We might never be afforded gear... often only one tribe gets gear (but we'd get the benefit of it at the merge).

There's also the possibility food from the challenge needs to be eaten soon or it will spoil.

I'm just trying to think of this in terms of the show.

Pretty good points.

[Golden]

I'll defer, speedchuck. Maybe we can catch up on night 3.

[Golden]

I'm going to the felled palm tree. I sucked at fishing, and maybe there's coconuts over there.

[speedchuck]

I'll defer, speedchuck. Maybe we can catch up on night 3.

Alright, sounds good to me.

[DharmaHelper]

I'm reluctant to change, but I think I will with the caveat that *everyone* agrees to go black rocks. As it's been said, black rocks'll give us at worst 50% chance of winning.

I'm down to push it to a coin flip if everyone else is.